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UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA CATARINA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ENGENHARIA CIVIL André Maia Nobre SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRAD

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UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA CATARINA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ENGENHARIA CIVIL André Maia Nobre SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRAD UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA CATARINA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ENGENHARIA CIVIL André Maia Nobre SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE IN A TROPICAL CLIMATE IN SINGAPORE <<<V27 – 142/28,514>>> For Qualification printing: 1, 2, 8, 9, 11 onwards (-6) Tese submetida ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Engenharia Civil – PPGEC da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina para a obtenção do Título de Doutor em Engenharia Civil. Orientador: Prof. Ricardo Rüther, PhD Florianópolis 2015 To my wife, Delphina, and our son, Luke, my parents, Eduardo and Luisa, my sisters, Ana Paula and Myriam and to family and friends around the world ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to start by thanking Prof. Ricardo Rüther for accepting me into his team, which allowed me to somehow “return” to Brazil and give back to my country of heart. Thanks for your guidance through the doctorate and your wisdom as one of the pioneers of the photovoltaic scene in Brazil. I would also like to extend my thanks to Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Laboratório de Eficiência Energética em Edificações (LabEEE), the Solar Research Group Fotovoltaica/UFSC, Tractebel Energia, the ANEEL Research and Development Program through project PE-0403-0027/2011, and the Brazilian Scientific Research Council (CNPq) for the support throughout the past years. To Dr. Thomas Reindl and Prof. Armin Aberle, my appreciation for being part for the past almost 7 years of a world-class research & development institute at the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS). I would also like express my appreciation to the National University of Singapore (NUS), the National Research Foundation (NRF) and the Economic Development Board of Singapore (EDB), all of which for funding and supporting a terrific infrastructure that leveraged the R&D initiatives surrounding the work of this thesis. I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to Prof. Joachim Luther, who trusted in my skills, inviting me in 2009 to be part of SERIS and also for believing in my potential as a researcher and contributor to solar technology for the future of mankind. Thanks also go to Burkhard Holder for introducing me to the world of photovoltaics ten years ago, which led to my arrival in Singapore. Special thanks go to Mark Kubis for believing in the values of “legacy” and “extra effort”, which we combined together through the years, developing things “from scratch”, which now are and will be part of the world we live in for many generations to come. Other SERIS colleagues I would like to express my gratitude are Dr. Dazhi Yang, Du Hui, Shravan Karthik, Hansley Cheetamun, Monika Bieri, Stanley Phua, Rupesh Baker, Dr. Wilfred Walsh, Aung Myint Khaing, Dr. Lu Zhao, Dr. Licheng Liu, Haohui Liu, Soe Pyae, Julius Tan, Andrew Nicholls, Janet Goh, Marinel Dungca and Jenny Oh (in memoriam). My appreciation is further extended to the Fotovoltaica/UFSC team, in special Dr. Clarissa Zomer, Alexandre Montenegro, Lucas Nascimento, Elisângela Pinheiro, Andrigo Gonçalves, Alice Bittencourt and Dr. Trajano Viana. Likewise, I would like to thank the LabEEE/UFSC colleagues Dr. Deivis Marinoski, Dr. Márcio Sorgato, Dr. Miguel Pacheco and Dr. Cláudia Pereira. A special thanks to Dr. Renata De Vecchi for the remote help with the thesis document logistics. Thanks to collaborators at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Dr. Enio Bueno Pereira and Prof. Fernando Ramos Martins. A big thank you also goes to other collaborators throughout the past years, namely Dr. Christian Reise at Fraunhofer ISE, Dr. Marius Peters at MIT, Carlos Severiano at UFMG and Dr. Hans Veldhuis at University of Twente. To the members of the evaluation committee, I express my indebtedness in taking your time to read this work, also in making the trip to Florianópolis (for the ones from out of town) and for your invaluable suggestions for the overall enhancement of my thesis. A few friends in Brazil I would like to acknowledge who were great companions as I worked on this thesis are Daniel Cima, Micael Duarte, Alessandro Assis, Paulo Dias and Renato Profeta. Similarly, a few friends based in Singapore who I would like to express my thanks are Dr. Anne Bendt, Peter Pronk and John Cann. I would like to acknowledge the National Basketball Association (NBA) for being a big part of my entire life and providing me with great joy while writing most of these words. In that same sense, the enjoyment of participating in dragon boating and outrigger canoeing paddling competitions in Singapore with the German Dragons and around the world with the Singapore Paddle Club are memories that will be intertwined with the ones of working towards this degree. To all my dear family members and old friends in Brazil who I did not spend much time with in the past decade, being on the other side of the planet, my sincere thanks for keeping in touch and helping anyway you could along the way. To new friends in Singapore and elsewhere in the world, thank you for your support. My parents Eduardo and Luisa have been a lighthouse throughout my life and career, teaching me the important values one should hold dear. Literally and figuratively, I would not be here if it were not for them. Similarly, I would like to acknowledge the loving support from my sisters Ana Paula and Myriam through the years together. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my adoring wife Delphina for being there through “thick and thin”, for pushing through this doctorate with all her unwavering support during the past half- decade. Now we get to enjoy our beautiful son Luke even more with the feeling of a job well done! Thanks also are due to my step daughters Kiara and Kyrene, who with their smiles made this entire journey a lot easier. “With great power comes great responsibility” Ben Parker RESUMO A humanidade usou e continua consumindo em grande quantidade os recursos não-renováveis do planeta como petróleo, gás natural e carvão mineral para suprir suas necessidades energéticas. Somente nas últimas duas décadas que outras fontes de energia renováveis, como a solar fotovoltaica e a eólica, passaram a se tornar relevantes na geração de energia elétrica em nível mundial. Instalações de sistemas fotovoltaicos ao redor do mundo atingiram crescimento da ordem de 40% durante os últimos quinze anos. Entretanto, a grande maioria destes sistemas, (acima de 90%), estão localizados em regiões onde o recurso solar não é tão abundante, ou seja, fora da região dos trópicos do planeta. Devido a este fato, ao tentar incorporar a energia solar fotovoltaica às redes elétricas, uma pergunta que sempre surge está relacionada a variação desta forma de geração de energia elétrica com a produção alternante durante o dia devido ao movimento das nuvens e total ausência no período noturno. Mesmo assim, em alguns países, já se atinge percentuais em torno de 5 a 10% de contribuição da energia elétrica proveniente de energia solar fotovoltaica. Passa a ser desafiador a inserção dessa fonte de energia à rede, de maneira intensiva, em paralelo com os recursos já existentes (em sua maioria ainda de origem fóssil). Nesta tese, foi avaliada a previsão do recurso solar em curtíssimo prazo (como 15-min, 30-min e uma hora) para uma região tropical do planeta, neste caso em Cingapura, ilha que se localiza próxima à linha do equador, no Sudeste Asiático. Esta tese foca em métodos existentes de previsão de irradiância, mas também explora uma nova proposta híbrida, adaptada a uma localidade tropical. Além das previsões de irradiação solar, simulações de sistemas fotovoltaicos e o cálculo de seu desempenho foram estudados e avaliados de modo a se prever quanto de energia elétrica é produzida com a mesma antecedência dada nos produtos de previsão do recurso solar. A influência da gaze de queimada foi um fenômeno particular, comum na Cingapura de hoje, que afeta o desempenho de sistemas fotovoltaicos e que foi investigado em detalhe. Todo o trabalho foi validado por redes detalhadas de estações meteorológicas em solo e também através de monitoramento de sistemas fotovoltaicos por toda Cingapura. Palavras-chave: irradiação solar, previsão da irradiação solar, sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados à rede, simulação e análise de desempenho de sistemas fotovoltaicos, regiões tropicais. ABSTRACT Humanity has used and continues to consume in great proportion non- renewable energy resources of the planet such as oil, natural gas and coal in order to fulfil its energy needs. It was only during the past two decades that other sources of renewable energy such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy became somewhat relevant towards electricity generation in the world. PV installations worldwide have reached a compound annual growth rate of ~40% for the last fifteen years. However, the great majority of these systems (over 90% of them) are located where the solar energy resource is not the most abundant – outside of the tropical regions of the planet. While trying to incorporate solar energy PV into electrical power grids, one common question which arises is related to the variable aspect of this form of energy generation – with alternating production during the day due to cloud motion, and total absence during night time. Nonetheless, in some countries, contribution ratios of 5 to 10% of electrical energy from solar PV have been achieved. It becomes then challenging to integrate this source of energy into grids in a professional way, in parallel with existing resources (mostly still fossil-fuel-based). In this thesis, short-term forecasting (for time horizons such as 15-min, 30- min and 1-hour) of the solar resource was investigated in a tropical region of the world – in Singapore, 1° North of the Equator, in Southeast Asia.
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