Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs

A Report Prepared for the

Regional Transportation Authority

-FINAL REPORT-

Joseph DiJohn, Paul Metaxatos, Ashish Sen, Mike Pagano Lise Dirks and Valbona Kokoshi

Phone: 312-996-1458 Email: [email protected]

November 2010

Urban Transportation Center (MC 357) College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs University of Illinois at Chicago 412 South Peoria Street, Suite 340, Chicago, Illinois 60607-7036 Phone: (312) 996-4820; Fax: (312) 413-0006; URL: www.utc.uic.edu Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Seniors Ride Free (SRF) program began on March 17, 2008, and the People with Disabilities Ride Free (PDRF) program, also known as the Circuit Breaker (CB) program, began on October 24, 2008. The Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) commissioned this study to examine the short- and long-term ridership and financial implications of the Senior Ride Free Program and the short-term financial implications for the PDRF program. Based on our analysis this study has found the SRF program to be financially unsustainable.

Registrations

SRF registrations increased from under 2,000 in March 2008 to more than 396,000 in December 2009. At the same time reduced fare registrations decreased during the SRF program from 252,260 in March 2008 to 175,632 in December 2009.

The registrations of persons with disabilities (Circuit Breakers) have increased from 22,000 in November 2008, the first full month of the program in place, to more than 37,000 in December 2009. At the same time the registrations of people with disabilities on reduced fare have remained relatively stable between 45,000 in March 2008 and 47,000 in December 2009.

Ridership

From March 2008 to December 2009, 77.6 million free rides were provided to seniors and people with disabilities on the RTA system. This represents 6.6% of total ridership.

Since the inception of the SRF and PDRF programs, many seniors and people with disabilities that were previously eligible for a reduced fare but were not registered have signed up for the additional benefit, and therefore there has been a rapid increase in ridership for these two programs compared to the previous reduced fare program. Through March 2009, according to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average 1.3 million new free rides per month compared to an average 1.7 million seniors rides per month that had previously paid a reduced fare. This represents a 75% increase in ridership for those two groups, which is not to be confused with a potential overall ridership increase among these populations which is more difficult to calculate since people not registered for the reduced fare program‟s travel habits were unable to be analyzed.

Through December 2009, free senior rides represent, on average, 5.2% of CTA‟s total ridership and 6.5% of Pace‟s ridership. Through December 2009, Metra estimates about 3.8% of total ridership, on average, are free senior trips.

By December 2009, 19.2 million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, CTA experienced rapid growth from 566,000 rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 1,519,000 rides in December 2009. Similarly, Pace went from 26,000 rides in November to 90,500 rides in December 2009. Metra increased from less than 500 rides

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 2 in November 2008 to 27,800 rides in December 2009. It is estimated that from November 2008 to December 2009, people with disabilities ride free represent on average about 2.6% of RTA‟s average (for the same period) total monthly ridership.

In summary, during the study period, free rides to seniors and people with disabilities represented 6.9% of CTA, 3.8% of Metra‟s and 8.2% of Pace‟s total ridership. In addition, ADA paratransit ridership appears to be rather insensitive to the fluctuations in SRF and PDRF ridership.

During the study period gasoline prices have fluctuated significantly and unemployment in the Chicago region has increased. Moreover, Metra ridership during the study period was also impacted by various road construction projects (Edens and Dan Ryan) and the CTA Brown Line construction. These and other factors also influence both general ridership and usage by seniors and people with disabilities.

In addition, future ridership projections are based, in part, on past performance. The recent years of 2008 and 2009 were not typical years due to the poor economy, changes in fares, unseasonable weather and fluctuating gasoline prices. For these reasons, future predictions may vary.

Survey of SRF Program Users

A survey of seniors registered for the SRF program revealed the following information about the travel behavior and attitudes toward the program

Transit Use  44% of the respondents did not have a reduced fare card prior to the program.  34% of the respondents currently use transit one or more times per week.  28% responded they ride transit more frequently as a result of the program; an approximately equal percentage (31%) reported they use cars and taxis less.

Why and How They Ride  13% reported taking rides that are work related while 16% were currently employed.  47% reported having ridden CTA bus in the previous week, 25% CTA rail, 31% Metra and 17% Pace.  50% of respondents reported taking more transit trips during rush hour, and 52% rode more during weekends since the program started.

Socioeconomic Profile  Over 90% reported living in households of 1 or 2 people.  79% respondents had a driver's license and 81% had an auto available.  16% are currently employed, 5% less than at the start of the program.  33% had incomes less than $22,000 annually.  28% had income more than $55,000 annually.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 3

 About 44% (59% of the rides) of the respondents would qualify for the CB program based on income eligibility.

Attitudes about the Seniors Ride Free Program Continuation  71% of respondents think the program should be continued,  24% think it should be limited to low income seniors, and  4% think it should be discontinued.

These results regarding attitudes about the SRF Program should be interpreted with caution as the majority of the survey respondents were mostly from Cook County. In addition, it is possible that riders who use their cards regularly were more likely to respond to the survey. Finally, the survey was only sent to seniors who have a SRF card and who, according to census data, are only about half of the seniors in the region.

Recent Surveys in the Chicago Region

Recent surveys in the Chicago region undertaken by Pace in 2007 and IDOT in 2009 have concluded that the majority of trips by seniors are non-work related trips and the cost of transit fares is not an important factor in choosing transit.

Demographic Forecasts and Ridership Impact of the SRF Program

The forecasted senior population data indicates that the senior population for the Chicago region will double between 2000 and 2030, growing from 870,000 or 10.8% of total population to over 1,780,000 or 17.6% of total population. This includes an 83% growth in senior population from 2010 to 2030. In terms of sheer numbers, Cook County will continue to dominate, with 60% or more of the region‟s senior population throughout the growth period.

As the baby boomers age, the largest impact will be growth in the 65 to 74 age cohort over the next ten to fifteen years. The 65-74 age group forecast for 2010 is over 513,000, growing to 972,000 by 2030. Between 2020 and 2030 growth in this cohort will slow, and the 74 to 85 year old age cohort will increase accordingly. By the year 2030 the regional population for persons 75 and older is forecasted to be nearly 811,000.

The growth rate in disabled population is influenced by growth in total population, since the disabled population is distributed throughout all age groups. However, seniors have a higher rate of disability than the rest of the population and as an age cohort, a higher growth rate. The percentage of disabled who are seniors is expected to increase from about 25% to around 35% over the forecast period. The fact that most of the growth in the disabled population will occur within the senior cohort has planning implications for transit and paratransit services. We might expect this pattern to follow the same trend as senior growth, with declining growth rates following 2030. Disabled population in Cook County and the Chicago region is projected to increase, respectively, from 1.03 and 1.53 million in 2000 to 1.24 million and 2.08 million in 2030, respectively.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 4

If the Seniors Ride Free were to continue we expect total annual ridership to be approximately 64.5 million trips by 2030 with CTA, Metra, and Pace carrying, respectively, approximately 54.4 million, 6.2 million, and 3.9 million rides.

Locations in the United States with Free Senior Fares

Only one other state in the United States, Pennsylvania, provides free rides to seniors (commuter rail rides are $1) by using lottery funds to reimburse the operators. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have experienced similar ridership trends as the RTA region resulting from the free ride program.

Financial Implications of the SRF and PDRF Programs

Short Term Financial Impacts

The 2009 annual revenue loss for the SRF program is estimated to be between $26.1 million and $76.8 million with a median value of $38.5 million. In 2008 the revenue loss is estimated to be between $19.1 million and $51.2 million.

Similarly, the 2009 annual revenue loss for the PDRF program is estimated to be between $11.6 million and $39.4 million with a median value of $17.2 million. In 2008 the revenue loss is estimated to be between $1.0 million and $3.0 million.

The 2009 annual revenue loss for the combined SRF and PDRF programs is estimated to be between $37.7 million and $116.2 million with a median value of $55.6 million. In 2008 the estimated revenue loss is estimated to be between $20.1 million and $54.2 million.

Long Term Financial Impacts

By 2030, the estimated revenue loss of the SRF program assuming no fare increase would be between $49.9 and $147.6 million with a median value of $73.5 million. Assuming a 10% increase in fares, the loss would be between $54.9 and $162.4 million with a median value of $80.9 million. Assuming a 20% increase in fares, the loss would be between $59.9 and $177.1 million with a median value of $88.2 million.

It was not possible to produce similar estimates of future PDRF ridership due to the insufficient data because of the newness of the program. In addition, forecasting future income-based disabled transit usage is more complex than estimating senior markets since the criteria of service eligibility are an undetermined subset of the disabled population, and the US Census does not forecast future poverty estimates.

Finally, there are many factors influencing ridership including cost of fares, gasoline prices, employment, other and seasonality. However, it can be predicted that senior and circuit breaker

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 5 riders will increase as a percentage of total ridership if fares increase since that would result in a decrease of fare-paying riders.

Whatever assumptions are made about the future, the result of the free ride programs will have a significant impact on the financial future of the RTA and its service boards.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 6

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1

REGISTRATIONS ...... 1 RIDERSHIP ...... 1 SURVEY OF SRF PROGRAM USERS ...... 2 RECENT SURVEYS IN THE CHICAGO REGION ...... 3 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS AND RIDERSHIP IMPACT OF THE SRF PROGRAM ...... 3 LOCATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES WITH FREE SENIOR FARES ...... 4 FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE SRF AND PDRF PROGRAMS ...... 4 INTRODUCTION ...... 11

1. BACKGROUND ...... 11 2. SCOPE OF WORK ...... 11 TASK 1 – RIDERSHIP AND REVENUE IMPACT ANALYSIS ...... 12 I. REGISTRATIONS ...... 13

1. RTA SENIORS AND PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES RIDE FREE REGISTRATIONS ...... 13 II. RIDERSHIP ...... 16

1. RIDERSHIP DATA ...... 16 2. SERVICE BOARDS: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS ...... 21 3. CTA BUS & RAIL RIDERSHIP ...... 24 4. CTA BUS & RAIL: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS...... 27 5. CTA BUS RIDERSHIP ...... 29 6. CTA BUS: DAY OF WEEK ANALYSIS ...... 32 7. CTA BUS: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS ...... 36 8. CTA RAIL RIDERSHIP ...... 38 9. CTA RAIL: DAY OF WEEK ANALYSIS ...... 41 10. CTA RAIL: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS...... 45 11. METRA RIDERSHIP ...... 47 12. METRA: TIME OF DAY AND DAY OF WEEK ANALYSIS ...... 50 13. METRA: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS ...... 54 14. PACE RIDERSHIP ...... 56 15. PACE: DAY OF WEEK ANALYSIS ...... 59 16. PACE: SHORT-TERM RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE FREE RIDE PROGRAMS ...... 63 III. FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF THE RIDE FREE PROGRAMS ...... 65

1. SHORT TERM FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE RIDE FREE PROGRAMS ...... 65 a. A Survey Free Approach for the SRF and CB Programs ...... 65 b. Survey-Based Revenue Loss Estimation of the SRF Program ...... 68 APPENDIX 1: TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE TWO SURVEY BASED METHODS ...... 83

DEFLATION DIFFERENCE METHOD ...... 84 DEFLATION RATIO METHOD ...... 85 TASK II – RTA SENIORS USERS SURVEY ...... 87 I. RECENT STUDIES IN THE CHICAGO METRO REGION ...... 88

1. IDOT SURVEY ...... 88 2. PACE SURVEY ...... 88

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3. ADA STUDY ...... 89 II. RTA SENIORS USERS SURVEY ...... 90

1. SURVEY OBJECTIVES ...... 90 2. DEVELOPMENT OF SAMPLE ...... 90 3. SURVEY INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT ...... 91 4. SURVEY LOGISTICS ...... 91 5. HIGHLIGHTS OF SURVEY RESULTS ...... 92 6. SURVEY DISCUSSION ...... 92 WEIGHTING ...... 93 QUESTION 1 – PUBLIC TRANSIT USE ...... 93 QUESTION 2A – LOCAL RIDES IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 94 QUESTION 2B – LOCAL RIDES WORK RELATED IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 95 QUESTION 2C – LOCAL RIDES BY MODE IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 96 QUESTION 3 – SRF CARD USE IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 99 QUESTION 4 - PUBLIC TRANSIT USE COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 100 QUESTION 5 - ADDITIONAL TRANSIT RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 100 QUESTION 6 - INCREASED WORK RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 101 QUESTION 7 – ADDITIONAL RUSH-HOUR TRANSIT RIDES ...... 101 QUESTION 8 – ADDITIONAL WEEKEND TRANSIT RIDES ...... 102 QUESTION 9 – ADDITIONAL TRANSIT RIDES BY SERVICE BOARD ...... 103 QUESTIONS 10 AND 11 – USE OF CARS OR TAXIS ...... 105 QUESTIONS 12 AND 13 – REDUCED FARE CARD USE ...... 106 QUESTION 14 – EMPLOYMENT STATUS BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 108 QUESTIONS 15 AND 16 – GENDER AND AGE ...... 108 QUESTION 17 – HOUSEHOLD INCOME ...... 109 QUESTION 18 – HOUSEHOLD SIZE ...... 110 QUESTIONS 19, 20 AND 21 – DRIVER’S LICENSE, ABILITY TO DRIVE AND AUTO AVAILABILITY ...... 111 QUESTION 22 – CURRENT EMPLOYMENT ...... 113 QUESTION 23 - ATTITUDES ABOUT THE SRF PROGRAM ...... 114 TASK III – MARKET ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS ...... 116 I. SENIOR CITIZEN AND DISABLED DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS ...... 117

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 117 2. REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 117 3. SENIOR POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 119 4. DISABLED POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 124 5. IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSIT RIDERSHIP ...... 126 6. LONG-TERM FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF THE SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM ...... 131 II. OTHER UNITED STATES SENIORS RIDE FREE EXPERIENCES ...... 135

1. NATIONAL TRENDS ...... 135 2. TRANSIT AGENCIES OFFERING FREE TRANSIT TO SENIORS ...... 135 APPENDIX 2 ...... 140 COVER LETTER ...... 141 SURVEY INSTRUMENT ...... 142

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1. SENIORS REDUCED FARE AND RIDE FREE AND DISABLED REDUCED FARE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS REGISTRATIONS...... 13 TABLE 2. SERVICE BOARDS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH ...... 19 TABLE 3. SERVICE BOARDS: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION ...... 22 TABLE 4. CTA BUS & RAIL RIDERSHIP BY MONTH...... 25 TABLE 5. CTA BUS & RAIL: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION ...... 28 TABLE 6. CTA BUS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH ...... 30 TABLE 7. CTA BUS: DAY OF WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 33 TABLE 8. CTA BUS: PERCENT OF TYPICAL WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 34 TABLE 9. CTA BUS: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION ...... 37 TABLE 10. CTA RAIL RIDERSHIP BY MONTH ...... 39 TABLE 11. CTA RAIL: DAY OF WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 42 TABLE 12. CTA RAIL: PERCENT OF TYPICAL WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 43 TABLE 13. CTA RAIL: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION ...... 46 TABLE 14. METRA RIDERSHIP BY MONTH ...... 48 TABLE 15. METRA: TIME OF DAY AND DAY OF WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 51 TABLE 16. METRA: PERCENT OF TYPICAL WEEK RIDERSHIP...... 52 TABLE 17. METRA: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION ...... 55 TABLE 18. PACE RIDERSHIP BY MONTH ...... 57 TABLE 19. PACE: DAY OF WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 60 TABLE 20. PACE: PERCENT OF TYPICAL WEEK RIDERSHIP ...... 61 TABLE 21. PACE: FREE RIDES AND REDUCED-FARE RIDES DIVERSION...... 64 TABLE 22. SERVICE BOARD FARE INFORMATION ...... 66 TABLE 23. SENIORS RIDE FREE (SRF) AND CIRCUIT BREAKER (CB) RIDERSHIP ...... 66 TABLE 24. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM ...... 66 TABLE 25. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM CIRCUIT BREAKER PROGRAM ...... 67 TABLE 26. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SRF AND CB PROGRAMS ...... 67 TABLE 27. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM ...... 67 TABLE 28. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM CIRCUIT BREAKER PROGRAM ...... 67 TABLE 29. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SRF AND CB PROGRAMS ...... 68 TABLE 30. ANNUAL REVENUE LOSS FOR SURVEY-BASED METHODS ...... 70 TABLE 31. WEEKLY TRANSIT RIDES BY SRF CARD FREQUENCY OF USE ...... 71 TABLE 32. WEEKLY ADDITIONAL TRANSIT RIDES BY SRF CARD FREQUENCY OF USE ...... 71 TABLE 33. ESTIMATED WEEKLY TRANSIT RIDES BY RF CARD FREQUENCY OF USE BEFORE THE SRF ...... 72 TABLE 34. PERCENT OF FULL FARE PAID FOR DIFFERENT RF AND SRF CARD FREQUENCY OF USE ...... 73 TABLE 35. FULL FARE INFORMATION ...... 73 TABLE 36. REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR A TYPICAL WEEK AFTER THE SRF PROGRAM STARTED FOR RIDERS WITH A SRF CARD ...... 74 TABLE 37. REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR A TYPICAL WEEK BEFORE THE SRF PROGRAM STARTED FOR RIDERS WITH A RF CARD ...... 74 TABLE 38. REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR A TYPICAL WEEK BEFORE THE SRF PROGRAM STARTED FOR RIDERS WITHOUT A RF CARD ...... 74 TABLE 39. TOTAL REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR A TYPICAL WEEK BEFORE THE SRF PROGRAM STARTED ...... 75 TABLE 40. DEFLATION DIFFERENCE METHOD: TOTAL REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES OF THE SRF PROGRAM ...... 75 TABLE 41. ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM REVENUE LOSS OF SRF PROGRAM USING THE DEFLATION DIFFERENCE METHOD AND OTHER SURVEY-FREE APPROACHES ...... 76 TABLE 42. FREQUENCY OF USE OF RF AND SRF CARDS FOR CTA RIDES ...... 77 TABLE 43. FREQUENCY OF USE OF RF AND SRF CARDS FOR METRA RIDES ...... 77 TABLE 44. FREQUENCY OF USE OF RF AND SRF CARDS FOR PACE RIDES ...... 78 TABLE 45. PERCENT OF FULL FARE PAID FOR DIFFERENT RF AND SRF CARD FREQUENCY OF USE ...... 79 TABLE 46. WEEKLY SRF RIDERSHIP AND FARES ...... 80 TABLE 47. ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM REVENUE LOSS OF SRF PROGRAM USING SURVEY-BASED AND SURVEY-FREE APPROACHES ...... 81 TABLE 48. RANGE OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL REVENUE LOSSES ...... 82 TABLE 49. SENIOR POPULATION IN THE RTA REGION ...... 90

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TABLE 50. SURVEY RESPONSES BY REGION ...... 93 TABLE 51. Q1. PUBLIC TRANSIT USE ...... 94 TABLE 52. Q2A. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 95 TABLE 53. Q2B. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES WORK RELATED IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 96 TABLE 54. Q2C1. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES ON CTA BUS IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 97 TABLE 55. Q2C2. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES ON CTA RAIL IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 97 TABLE 56. Q2C3. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES ON METRA IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 98 TABLE 57. Q2C4. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES ON PACE IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 98 TABLE 58. Q2C5. NUMBER OF LOCAL RIDES ON CAR OR TAXI IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 99 TABLE 59. Q3. SENIOR RIDE FREE CARD USE IN PREVIOUS WEEK ...... 99 TABLE 60. Q4. PUBLIC TRANSIT USE COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 100 TABLE 61. Q5. NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL TRANSIT RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 101 TABLE 62. Q6. NUMBER OF INCREASED WORK RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 101 TABLE 63. Q7. NUMBER OF INCREASED TRANSIT RIDES PER WEEK THAT BEGAN OR ENDED IN RUSH HOUR COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 102 TABLE 64. Q8. NUMBER OF INCREASED WEEKEND TRANSIT RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 102 TABLE 65. Q9A. NUMBER OF INCREASED CTA RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 103 TABLE 66. Q9B. NUMBER OF INCREASED METRA RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 104 TABLE 67. Q9C. NUMBER OF INCREASED PACE RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 104 TABLE 68. Q10. USE OF CARS OR TAXIS COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM ...... 105 TABLE 69. Q11. NUMBER OF FEWER CAR/TAXI RIDES PER WEEK COMPARED TO BEFORE SRF PROGRAM...... 105 TABLE 70. Q12. HAD RTA REDUCED FARE CARD BEFORE SENIOR RIDE FREE CARD ...... 106 TABLE 71. Q13. FREQUENCY OF USING REDUCED FARE CARD ...... 106 TABLE 72. RELATIVE USE OF REDUCED FARE AND SRF CARDS (BASED ON RIDERS) ...... 107 TABLE 73. RELATIVE USE OF REDUCED FARE AND SRF CARDS (BASED ON TRIPS) ...... 107 TABLE 74. Q14. EMPLOYED RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF FREE PROGRAM ...... 108 TABLE 75. Q15. GENDER ...... 108 TABLE 76. Q16. AGE ...... 109 TABLE 77. Q17. TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN 2008 BEFORE TAXES ...... 109 TABLE 78. NUMBER OF RIDES BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND INCOME IN 2008 BEFORE TAXES ...... 110 TABLE 79. Q18. NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN HOUSEHOLD ...... 111 TABLE 80. Q19. HAVE A VALID DRIVER'S LICENSE ...... 111 TABLE 81. Q20. ABLE TO DRIVE ...... 112 TABLE 82. Q21. CURRENTLY HAVE AN AUTOMOBILE AVAILABLE ...... 112 TABLE 83. DRIVER’S LICENSE, ABILITY TO DRIVE AND AUTO AVAILABILITY BY AGE GROUP ...... 113 TABLE 84. DRIVER’S LICENSE, ABILITY TO DRIVE AND AUTO AVAILABILITY BY GENDER ...... 113 TABLE 85. DRIVER’S LICENSE, ABILITY TO DRIVE AND AUTO AVAILABILITY BY PUBLIC TRANSIT USE ...... 113 TABLE 86. Q22. CURRENTLY EMPLOYED ...... 114 TABLE 87. Q23. ATTITUDES ABOUT THE SRF PROGRAM CONTINUATION ...... 114 TABLE 88. THOUGHTS ABOUT THE SRF PROGRAM CONTINUATION BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE ...... 115 TABLE 89. ESTIMATED RATE OF REGISTRATION FOR SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM, SEPTEMBER 2009 ...... 127 TABLE 90. PROJECTED SENIOR RIDE FREE REGISTRATIONS BY SUB-REGION ...... 127 TABLE 91. MONTHLY REGISTRATIONS FOR SENIOR RIDE FREE AND SENIOR REDUCED FARE PROGRAMS ...... 128 TABLE 92. AVERAGE* ANNUAL SRF RIDES ...... 130 TABLE 93. PROJECTED SERVICE BOARD FARE INFORMATION ...... 131 TABLE 94. PROJECTED SRF RIDERSHIP ...... 131 TABLE 95. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM IN 2010 ...... 132 TABLE 96. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM IN 2015 ...... 133 TABLE 97. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM IN 2020 ...... 133 TABLE 98. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM IN 2025 ...... 133 TABLE 99. ESTIMATED RANGE OF REVENUE LOSS FROM SENIOR RIDE FREE PROGRAM IN 2030 ...... 133

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 10

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1. SENIORS REDUCED FARE AND RIDE FREE REGISTRATIONS ...... 14 FIGURE 2. DISABLED REDUCED FARE AND CIRCUIT BREAKER REGISTRATIONS ...... 15 FIGURE 3. SERVICE BOARDS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 20 FIGURE 4. SERVICE BOARDS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE, CIRCUIT BREAKERS AND REGIONWIDE ADA PARATRANSIT ...... 20 FIGURE 5. SERVICE BOARDS: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES...... 23 FIGURE 6. CTA RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS...... 26 FIGURE 7. CTA RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE, CIRCUIT BREAKERS AND CITYWIDE ADA PARATRANSIT ...... 26 FIGURE 8. CTA: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES...... 28 FIGURE 9. CTA BUS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 31 FIGURE 10. CTA BUS RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 31 FIGURE 11. CTA BUS WEEKDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 35 FIGURE 12. CTA BUS SATURDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 35 FIGURE 13. CTA BUS SUNDAY/HOLIDAY: PCT. RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 35 FIGURE 14. CTA BUS: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES ...... 37 FIGURE 15. CTA RAIL RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 40 FIGURE 16. CTA RAIL RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 40 FIGURE 17. CTA RAIL WEEKDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 44 FIGURE 18. CTA RAIL SATURDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 44 FIGURE 19. CTA RAIL SUNDAY/HOLIDAY: PCT. RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 44 FIGURE 20. CTA RAIL: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES ...... 46 FIGURE 21. METRA RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 49 FIGURE 22. METRA RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 49 FIGURE 23. METRA AVG. WKDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 53 FIGURE 24. METRA ALL RIDERS: TIME OF DAY PERCENTAGE SPLIT ...... 53 FIGURE 25. METRA AVG. SATURDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 53 FIGURE 26. METRA AVG. SUNDAY/HOLIDAY: PCT. RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 53 FIGURE 27. METRA: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES ...... 55 FIGURE 28. PACE RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: TOTAL RIDERSHIP, REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS ...... 58 FIGURE 29. PACE RIDERSHIP BY MONTH: REDUCED FARE, SENIORS RIDE FREE, CIRCUIT BREAKERS AND SUBURBAN ADA PARATRANSIT .. 58 FIGURE 30. PACE AVERAGE WEEKDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 62 FIGURE 31. PACE AVG. SATURDAY: PERCENT RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 62 FIGURE 32. PACE AVG. SUNDAY/HOLIDAY: PCT. RIDERSHIP OF TYPICAL WEEK ...... 62 FIGURE 33. PACE: REDUCED FARE RIDES DIVERSION AND FREE RIDES ...... 64 FIGURE 34. DISTRIBUTIONS OF SENIOR POPULATION AND RTA FREE SENIORS ...... 91 FIGURE 35. REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 118 FIGURE 36. PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION 2000-2030 ...... 118 FIGURE 37. PROJECTED POPULATION FOR COLLAR COUNTIES ...... 119 FIGURE 38. REGIONAL PROJECTED SENIOR POPULATION BY SUB-REGION ...... 120 FIGURE 39. REGIONAL PROJECTED PERCENT CHANGE IN SENIOR POPULATION ...... 121 FIGURE 40. SENIOR POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION FOR SUB-REGIONS ...... 122 FIGURE 41. REGIONAL PROJECTED SENIOR POPULATION BY AGE COHORT ...... 123 FIGURE 42. FORECASTED PERCENT CHANGE IN SENIOR AGE COHORTS...... 124 FIGURE 43. REGIONAL PROJECTED DISABLED POPULATION ...... 125 FIGURE 44. PROJECTED GROWTH IN DISABLED POPULATION FOR COLLAR COUNTIES ...... 126 FIGURE 45. MONTHLY REGISTRATIONS FOR SENIOR RIDE FREE AND SENIOR REDUCED FARE PROGRAMS ...... 129 FIGURE 46. PROJECTED SENIOR RIDE FREE RIDERSHIPS FOR SERVICE BOARDS ...... 130 FIGURE 47. ESTIMATED LONG TERM REVENUE LOSSES OF SRF PROGRAM...... 132

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 11

INTRODUCTION

1. Background

In January 2008, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich used his amendatory veto power when approving the state‟s transit funding legislation to allow persons over the age of 65 to ride the state‟s transit systems free beginning on March 17, 2008. The Regional Transportation Authority contracted with the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago to examine the ridership and revenue impacts of the program on the three service boards; CTA, Metra and Pace. In addition, the scope of the project includes undertaking a survey of senior citizen registrants as to their perceptions and riding habits as a result of the Seniors Ride Free Program. The Illinois Legislature passed Senate Bill 1920 which allowed persons with disabilities to ride free meeting certain income requirements known as “Illinois Circuit Breaker Program.” This program went into effect on October 24, 2008. The RTA added people with disabilities data to the scope of the project after the work was authorized.

2. Scope of Work

The scope of work consists of three tasks:

1. Task 1. Ridership and Revenue Impact Analysis. The ridership data from the service boards; CTA, Metra and Pace were obtained for the periods prior to and after the free ride program for seniors was implemented on March 17, 2008. In depth analysis by mode, time of day and day of week was undertaken to best understand the ridership impacts. The Circuit Breaker free rides program began on October 24, 2008, and to the extent data is available analysis of the program‟s impacts is included in this task. Revenue impacts of both seniors and people with disabilities ride free programs were also examined.

2. Task 2. RTA Seniors Users Survey. A survey was developed to determine the changes in traveling habits and attitudes among seniors 65 and over who are registered with the RTA.

3. Task 3. Market Analysis and Predictions. The goal of this task is to determine the long-term impact of the seniors and disabled ride free program on the region‟s ridership. A review of other transit systems in North America was made to understand the experience of other metro areas. Demographic forecasts of the age 65 and older and disabled populations were made in order to predict future demand. The survey results described in Task 2 and the first full year experience are all factors taken into consideration in making the long-term prediction of ridership demand in the Chicago region. Long-term revenue impacts of the seniors ride free program were also developed.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 12

CHAPTER 1

TASK 1 – RIDERSHIP AND REVENUE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 13

I. REGISTRATIONS

1. RTA Seniors and Persons with Disabilities Ride Free Registrations

When former Governor Rod Blagojevich mandated free rides for seniors, RTA implemented the Seniors Ride Free (SRF) program and created the Senior Ride Free fare card. Seniors could use existing reduced fare cards for free rides until April 2009. We obtained from the RTA monthly counts of registrants for Senior Reduced Fare and for Senior Ride Free from March 2008 to December 2009 (Table 1).

Before the April 2009 deadline, eligible riders were counted as registrants in both programs, minus those who had transitioned, but whose Reduced Fare cards had not yet expired. After April 1, 2009 the eligible riders are only those registered for Senior Ride Free. The large increases in numbers of Senior Ride Free registrants just before the April 2009 deadline when a Senior Reduced Fare card could no longer be used for free rides can be seen in Figure 1. Reduced fare registrations decreased during the SRF program from 252,260 in March 2008 to 175,632 in December 2009. At the same time SRF registrations increased from under 2,000 in March 2008 to more than 396,000 in December 2009.

The Illinois Legislature passed Senate Bill 1920 which allowed persons with disabilities to ride free meeting certain income requirements known as “Illinois Circuit Breaker Program.” We obtained the monthly registrations of these „Circuit Breakers‟1 riders also from Polaroid (Table 1). In Figure 2, the registrations of persons with disabilities (Circuit Breakers) have increased over from 22,000 in November 2008, the first full month of the program in place, to more than 37,000 in December 2009. At the same time the registrations of people with disabilities on reduced fare (also from Polaroid) have remained relatively stable between 45,000 in March 2008 and 47,000 in December 2009.

Table 1. Seniors Reduced Fare and Ride Free and Disabled Reduced Fare and Circuit Breakers Registrations Senior Disabled Disabled Senior Ride Reduced Reduced Circuit Month Free Fare Fare Breaker Registrants Registrants Registrants Registrants Mar08 252,260 1,734 45,149 Apr08 250,246 48,816 45,536 May08 247,855 87,234 46,313 Jun08 243,472 104,945 46,357 Jul08 238,011 135,217 46,939 Aug08 231,465 158,355 46,938 Sep08 227,406 181,622 46,990 Oct08 223,300 198,510 47,258 13,322 Nov08 219,651 218,214 47,367 22,317 Dec08 216,207 246,913 47,369 27,846

1 The terms „Circuit Breakers (CB)‟ and „People with Disabilities Ride Free (PDRF)‟ are used interchangeably in this report.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 14

Senior Disabled Disabled Senior Ride Reduced Reduced Circuit Month Free Fare Fare Breaker Registrants Registrants Registrants Registrants Jan09 212,063 276,999 47,197 29,977 Feb09 208,343 305,413 46,998 31,674 Mar09 204,588 348,181 46,762 33,671 Apr09 199,523 358,031 46,419 36,321 May09 197,078 365,177 46,393 37,745 Jun09 191,946 369,378 45,950 24,176 Jul09 186,568 374,854 45,768 30,309 Aug09 179,724 382,092 45,609 33,666 Sept09 175,512 387,614 45,486 35,278 Oct09 175,570 391,210 46,166 36,321 Nov09 175,594 394,562 46,617 36,889 Dec09 175,632 396,387 46,992 37,686

450,000

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

Senior Reduced Fare Registrants Senior Ride Free Registrants

Figure 1. Seniors Reduced Fare and Ride Free Registrations

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Disabled Reduced Fare Circuit Breaker

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs – FINAL REPORT 15

Figure 2. Disabled Reduced Fare and Circuit Breaker Registrations

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 16

II. RIDERSHIP

1. Ridership Data

Ridership data were obtained from the Service Boards as described below and cover the period between January 2007 and December 2009. In certain occasions, data for the time of day and day of week analysis were obtained from the RTA‟s Regional Transportation Asset Management System (RTAMS).

In addition, prior to March 17, 2008, CTA, Metra, and Pace did not register senior riders separately from other reduced fare riders, which included seniors, persons with disabilities, military personnel, students and children. More specifically, the following data by fare type used in the ridership analysis for this study were obtained from each Service Board:

 CTA: o Monthly number of rides (including Free Seniors and Circuit Breakers) for bus and rail by fare type for weekend, Saturday and Sunday. o Reduced-fare data include usage of the following fare types: . Reduced 30-Day Pass . Reduced Cash . Reduced Smart Card 1st Ride . Reduced Smart Card 2nd Ride . Reduced Smart Card 3rd Ride . Reduced Transit Card 1st Ride . Reduced Transit Card 2nd Ride . Reduced Transit Card 3rd Ride

 Metra: o Ridership data for total system-wide ridership (excluding the South Shore line), Free Seniors and Circuit Breakers were obtained from the monthly publication Commuter Rail System Ridership Trends (Table 2) prepared by Metra‟s Office of Planning and Analysis. o Starting with March 2008, reduced-fare monthly estimates have been adjusted to discount separate reimbursements made for Free Seniors based on information received from the RTA and verified by Metra. A similar adjustment was done for Circuit Breakers from October 2008.

 Pace: Ridership data pertain to services with electronic fareboxes. As a result, most feeder services are not included and therefore most plusbus and linkup passes would not be part of the total tally. The following information was made available: o Monthly totals for senior ridership by route, weekday, Saturday, Sunday o Monthly ridership by fare type o Free senior ridership . Total and daily averages (weekday, Saturday, Sunday) . Free senior ridership (Circuit Breaker on Fixed Route)  Total and daily averages

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 17

 Weekday, Saturday, Sunday o Reduced-fare data . Reduced Fare Initial Use . CTA Sold 30 Day Reduced Fare Pass . Pace Sold 30 Day Full Reduced Pass . Reduced fare (cash) . Reduced fare CCC . Reduced out of Region Seniors . 1st Transfer Reduced . 2nd Transfer Reduced.

2. Service Boards Ridership

Service Boards combined ridership data are summarized in Table 2, while Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 3, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 4 and improves visualization without the total ridership group.

On average, the Service Boards provide more than 52.5 million monthly trips and total ridership has experienced an upward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 4). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has decreased from 5.5 million to 3.0 million trips (Table 2).

Moreover, the seniors ride free (SRF) ridership increases sharply during the first few months of the program to 3 million trips by October 2008 (Table 2). Seniors seem to take fewer free trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and peaks at 3.2 million trips in July 2009. By December 2009 the SRF ridership has decreased to 2.6 million trips (Table 2).

The Circuit Breaker (CB) program2 began in late October 2008. By December 2009, 19.2 million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, CTA experienced rapid growth from 566,149 rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 1,519,483 rides in December 2009. Similarly, Pace went from 26,049 rides in November 2008 to 90,579 rides in December 2009. Metra increased from 474 rides in November 2008 to 27,800 rides in December 2009. It is estimated that free rides taken by people with disabilities (from November 2008 to December 2009) represent on average about 2.6% of RTA‟s total ridership.

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 77.6 million free rides (seniors and people with disabilities) were provided on the RTA system. This represents 6.6% of total ridership. In the same period, Metra‟s experience estimates about 3.8% of total ridership were free trips. In addition, free rides provided between March 2008 and December 2009 represent 6.9% of CTA‟s and 8.2% of Pace‟s total ridership.

2 The terms „Circuit Breaker‟ and „People with Disabilities Ride Free‟ are used interchangeably in this report.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 18

Finally, ADA paratransit ridership appears to be rather insensitive to the monthly changes in Free Senior and Circuit Breaker ridership (Figure 4). There appears to be little, if any, diversion from ADA special services to free Circuit Breaker rides.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 19

Table 2. Service Boards ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent ADA Percent Jan.07 48,913,496 5,513,713 11.3% Feb.07 44,193,262 5,030,767 11.4% Mar.07 52,450,198 6,402,868 12.2% Apr.07 49,778,413 5,389,579 10.8% May.07 54,147,615 6,713,840 12.4% Jun.07 52,047,066 5,007,463 9.6% Jul.07 52,397,110 4,364,684 8.3% Aug.07 52,871,923 4,174,923 7.9% Sep.07 52,828,098 5,916,551 11.2% Oct.07 57,582,503 6,784,007 11.8% Nov.07 51,181,624 5,898,051 11.5% Dec.07 46,606,297 5,658,555 12.1% Jan.08 49,710,268 5,432,741 10.9% 207,060 0.4% Feb.08 48,173,729 5,290,520 11.0% 194,491 0.4% Mar.08 50,936,392 4,782,517 9.4% 823,253 1.6% 205,705 0.4% Apr.08 54,906,398 4,575,442 8.3% 2,200,905 4.0% 220,223 0.4% May.08 55,739,455 4,680,694 8.4% 2,589,894 4.6% 202,733 0.4% Jun.08 55,035,624 3,302,154 6.0% 2,713,811 4.9% 204,404 0.4% Jul.08 57,533,898 3,009,552 5.2% 2,925,219 5.1% 211,738 0.4% Aug.08 55,993,672 2,493,257 4.5% 2,963,729 5.3% 213,864 0.4% Sep.08 57,532,472 4,432,530 7.7% 2,868,513 5.0% 219,553 0.4% Oct.08 60,863,443 4,803,903 7.9% 3,070,237 5.0% 61,257 0.1% 236,151 0.4% Nov.08 51,477,343 3,371,363 6.5% 2,531,951 4.9% 592,672 1.2% 205,514 0.4% Dec. 08 48,167,474 3,074,422 6.4% 2,241,934 4.7% 875,398 1.8% 211,052 0.4% Jan.09 49,187,077 3,512,717 7.1% 2,171,418 4.4% 1,020,744 2.1% 206,165 0.4% Feb.09 48,801,598 3,458,942 7.1% 2,285,860 4.7% 1,100,713 2.3% 210,166 0.4% Mar.09 53,541,198 3,922,260 7.3% 2,715,221 5.1% 1,318,020 2.5% 230,592 0.4% Apr.09 52,404,657 3,410,351 6.5% 2,623,473 5.0% 1,414,410 2.7% 226,984 0.4% May.09 53,333,058 3,850,558 7.2% 2,906,931 5.5% 1,593,421 3.0% 221,730 0.4% Jun.09 53,395,836 2,775,926 5.2% 2,950,620 5.5% 1,680,476 3.1% 204,633 0.4% Jul.08 54,964,772 2,343,430 4.3% 3,155,672 5.7% 1,338,163 2.4% 222,342 0.4% Aug.09 52,638,067 1,779,853 3.4% 3,071,384 5.8% 1,519,635 2.9% 219,762 0.4% Sep.09 55,520,427 3,528,093 6.4% 3,144,016 5.7% 1,641,720 3.0% 220,525 0.4% Oct.09 56,834,611 4,058,385 7.1% 3,023,012 5.3% 1,702,011 3.0% 228,250 0.4% Nov.09 51,593,019 3,530,628 6.8% 2,849,673 5.5% 1,680,307 3.3% 209,976 0.4% Dec. 09 48,093,934 3,000,142 6.2% 2,580,443 5.4% 1,637,862 3.4% 211,052 0.4% Average* 52,538,223 4,313,205 8.3% 2,742,091 5.1% 1,365,397 2.6% 214,361 0.4% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 20

Figure 3. Service Boards ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

Figure 4. Service Boards ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free, Circuit Breakers and Regionwide ADA Paratransit

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 21

2. Service Boards: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

Since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in free rides. The short-term ridership impact of the Seniors Ride Free (SRF) program and the Circuit Breaker (CB) program on the three Service Boards ridership is the sum of two trends: (a) diversion of senior rides, previously on reduced fare, to free rides, and (b) attraction of new free rides to the SRF and CB programs.

Prior to March 17, 2008, CTA, Metra, and Pace did not register senior riders separately from other reduced fare riders, which included persons with disabilities, military personnel, students and children. Therefore, in order to estimate diversion of rides from the reduced fare program to the SRF program, we computed the differences in reduced fare rides on each month from before and after the SRF program went into effect starting from April 2007 and ending in March 2008 – the assumption being that seniors who had being paying a reduced fare were no longer doing so and were riding free. The average of these monthly differences is an estimate of the diverted rides (call this Estimate A).

In order to estimate the total number of new free rides attracted to the SRF and CB programs for the same period, we averaged the total monthly SRF and CB ridership (call this Estimate B). The estimated number of new rides is then computed to be the difference between Estimates A and B.

The following examples illustrate the method above. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership (as a percentage of total ridership) was 2.5% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 3). In addition, in April 2008, all Service Boards reported 2,200,905 SRF rides representing 4.0% of the total ridership (Table 3). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 4.0% - 2.5% = 1.5% gain in new free rides (Table 3).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008 as seen in Table 3. In October 2008 the Service Boards reported, in addition to 3,070,237 SRF rides, 61,257 CB rides (Table 2) or a combined 3,131,494 free rides representing 5.1% of total ridership (Table 3). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 3.9% of ridership (Table 3). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 5.1% – 3.9% = 1.2% as seen in Table 3. The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior riders between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 3.7%. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 5.6%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 5.6% - 3.7% = 1.9%.

Figure 5 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership impact of the first effect is shown as bars going downwards (in darker blue) while the ridership impact of the second effect as bars going upwards (in light blue).

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 22

Since the inception of the SRF and PDRF programs, many seniors and people with disabilities that were previously eligible for a reduced fare but were not registered have signed up for the additional benefit, and therefore there has been a rapid increase in ridership for these two programs compared to the previous reduced fare program. Through March 2009, according to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average 1.3 million new free rides per month compared to an average 1.7 million seniors rides per month that had previously paid a reduced fare. This represents an 75% increase in ridership for those two groups, which is not to be confused with a potential overall ridership increase among these populations which is more difficult to calculate since people not registered for the reduced fare program‟s travel habits were unable to be analyzed.

It should be noted that the ridership is impacted by other factors as well. During the study period gasoline prices have fluctuated significantly and unemployment in the Chicago region has increased. These and other factors influence both general ridership and usage by seniors and people with disabilities.

Table 3. Service Boards: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Difference of Reduced Fare Monthly Rides Difference Free Rides and Rides Difference Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare from 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%)

Apr-07-08 -814,138 2.5% 2,200,905 4.0% 1.5% May-07-08 -2,033,146 4.0% 2,589,894 4.6% 0.6% Jun-07-08 -1,705,309 3.6% 2,713,811 4.9% 1.3% Jul-07-08 -1,355,133 3.1% 2,925,219 5.1% 2.0% Aug-07-08 -1,681,666 3.4% 2,963,729 5.3% 1.8% Sep-07-08 -1,484,020 3.5% 2,868,513 5.0% 1.5% Oct-07-08 -1,980,104 3.9% 3,131,494 5.1% 1.3% Nov-07-08 -2,526,688 5.0% 3,124,623 6.1% 1.1% Dec-07-08 -2,584,132 5.8% 3,117,332 6.5% 0.7% Jan-08-09 -1,920,024 3.8% 3,192,162 6.5% 2.7% Feb-08-09 -1,831,578 3.9% 3,386,573 6.9% 3.0% Mar-08-09 -860,257 2.1% 4,033,241 7.5% 5.5% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 23

Figure 5. Service Boards: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 24

3. CTA Bus & Rail Ridership

CTA combined bus and rail ridership data are summarized in Table 4, while Figure 6 and Figure 7 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 7, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 6 and improves visualization without the total ridership group.

On average, the CTA provides almost 42.3 million monthly trips and total ridership has experienced an upward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 6). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has decreased from 4.9 million to 2.7 million trips (Table 4).

Moreover, the SRF ridership increases sharply during the first few months of the program to 2.5 million trips by October 2008 (Table 4). Seniors seem to take fewer free trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and reaches 2.7 million trips by July 2009. By December 2009 the ridership lowers to 2.3 million trips (Table 4).

The Circuit Breaker (CB) program began in late October 2008. By December 2009, 17.9 million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, CTA experienced rapid growth from 566,149 CB rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 1,519,483 in December 2009 (Table 4).

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 67.2 million free rides (SRF and CB) on the CTA system were provided. This ridership represents 6.9% of CTA‟s total ridership.

Finally, ADA paratransit ridership appears to be rather insensitive to the monthly changes in Free Senior and Circuit Breaker ridership (Figure 7). There appears to be little, if any, diversion from ADA special services to free Circuit Breaker rides.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 25

Table 4. CTA bus & rail ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent ADA Percent Jan.07 39,750,624 4,911,148 12.4% Feb.07 35,687,027 4,493,305 12.6% Mar.07 43,031,232 5,751,560 13.4% Apr.07 40,424,875 4,762,556 11.8% May.07 44,209,120 6,006,194 13.6% Jun.07 42,041,867 4,396,990 10.5% Jul.07 42,295,466 3,747,080 8.9% Aug.07 42,767,972 3,573,604 8.4% Sep.07 43,125,145 5,276,068 12.2% Oct.07 46,999,623 6,028,603 12.8% Nov.07 41,443,661 5,262,950 12.7% Dec.07 37,767,696 5,077,678 13.4% Jan.08 39,422,851 4,774,418 12.1% 163,173 0.4% Feb.08 39,394,495 4,730,817 12.0% 153,454 0.4% Mar.08 41,772,316 4,278,321 10.2% 717,794 1.7% 162,813 0.4% Apr.08 44,989,796 4,102,568 9.1% 1,898,809 4.2% 172,704 0.4% May.08 45,602,046 4,216,821 9.2% 2,204,810 4.8% 159,881 0.4% Jun.08 44,661,980 2,922,438 6.5% 2,295,880 5.1% 160,580 0.4% Jul.08 46,628,212 2,624,919 5.6% 2,462,791 5.3% 168,336 0.4% Aug.08 45,552,994 2,126,986 4.7% 2,505,854 5.5% 168,336 0.4% Sep.08 47,130,089 3,995,541 8.5% 2,431,224 5.2% 171,359 0.4% Oct.08 50,080,434 4,331,762 8.6% 2,572,225 5.1% 59,952 0.1% 184,821 0.4% Nov.08 41,963,872 3,014,256 7.2% 2,120,887 5.1% 566,149 1.3% 161,449 0.4% Dec. 08 39,137,386 2,755,439 7.0% 1,850,111 4.7% 828,930 2.1% 160,147 0.4% Jan.09 40,286,141 3,182,314 7.9% 1,802,404 4.5% 966,723 2.4% 165,258 0.4% Feb.09 40,077,749 3,132,690 7.8% 1,904,917 4.8% 1,038,098 2.6% 166,854 0.4% Mar.09 44,385,820 3,567,027 8.0% 2,295,622 5.2% 1,239,327 2.8% 184,852 0.4% Apr.09 43,355,644 3,053,823 7.0% 2,200,079 5.1% 1,321,547 3.0% 179,738 0.4% May.09 44,322,318 3,497,601 7.9% 2,467,011 5.6% 1,489,538 3.4% 176,899 0.4% Jun.09 43,961,540 2,461,634 5.6% 2,482,544 5.6% 1,566,933 3.6% 156,382 0.4% Jul.09 45,321,496 2,033,597 4.5% 2,669,905 5.9% 1,246,164 2.7% 174,740 0.4% Aug.09 43,422,949 1,498,838 3.5% 2,599,696 6.0% 1,411,053 3.2% 171,768 0.4% Sep.09 46,128,889 3,183,808 6.9% 2,661,558 5.8% 1,522,013 3.3% 177,071 0.4% Oct.09 47,427,633 3,695,129 7.8% 2,541,418 5.4% 1,574,344 3.3% 182,626 0.4% Nov.09 42,705,362 3,204,102 7.5% 2,415,926 5.7% 1,556,568 3.6% 165,884 0.4% Dec.09 39,573,019 2,701,891 6.8% 2,171,900 5.5% 1,519,483 3.8% 160,147 0.4% Average* 42,968,037 3,843,735 9.0% 2,312,170 5.2% 1,274,776 3.0% 168,720 0.4% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 26

60,000,000

50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09 Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers

Figure 6. CTA ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers City ADA Paratransit Estimated Reduced Fare Seniors Figure 7. CTA ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free, Circuit Breakers and Citywide ADA Paratransit

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 27

4. CTA Bus & Rail: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

The following examples illustrate the method (discussed earlier) to estimate short-term ridership impacts. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership (as a percentage of total ridership) was 2.7% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 5). In addition, in April 2008, CTA reported 1,898,809 SRF rides representing 4.2% of the total ridership (Table 5). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 4.2% - 2.7% = 1.6% (accounting for rounding) gain in new free rides (Table 5).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008. In October 2008 the CTA reported, in addition to 2,572,225 SRF rides, 59,952 CB rides (Table 4) or a combined 2,632,177 free rides representing 5.3% of total ridership (Table 5). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 4.2% of ridership (Table 5). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 5.3% – 4.2% = 1.1% (Table 5). The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior riders between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 4%. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 5.9%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 5.9% - 4% = 1.9%.

Figure 8 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership of the first effect is shown as (darker blue) bars going downwards while the ridership impact of the second effect as (lighter blue) bars going upwards.

Overall, since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in CTA ridership due to the newness of the programs. According to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average 1.1 million new rides per month compared to an average 1.5 million senior rides per month on a reduced fare. This represents a 73% increase in free rides as a result of the two programs between April 2008 and March 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 28

Table 5. CTA Bus & Rail: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Difference of Reduced Fare Monthly Rides Difference Free Rides and Rides Difference Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare from 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%)

Apr-07-08 -659,988 2.7% 1,898,809 4.2% 1.6% May-07-08 -1,789,372 4.3% 2,204,810 4.8% 0.5% Jun-07-08 -1,474,553 3.9% 2,295,880 5.1% 1.2% Jul-07-08 -1,122,160 3.2% 2,462,791 5.3% 2.1% Aug-07-08 -1,446,618 3.7% 2,505,854 5.5% 1.8% Sep-07-08 -1,280,527 3.8% 2,431,224 5.2% 1.4% Oct-07-08 -1,696,841 4.2% 2,632,177 5.3% 1.1% Nov-07-08 -2,248,694 5.5% 2,687,036 6.4% 0.9% Dec-07-08 -2,322,239 6.4% 2,679,041 6.8% 0.4% Jan-08-09 -1,592,104 4.2% 2,769,127 6.9% 2.7% Feb-08-09 -1,598,127 4.2% 2,943,015 7.3% 3.2% Mar-08-09 -711,294 2.2% 3,534,949 8.0% 5.8% Apr-08-09 -1,048,744 2.1% 3,521,626 8.1% 6.0% May-08-09 -719,220 1.4% 3,956,549 8.9% 7.6% Jun-08-09 -460,803 0.9% 4,049,477 9.2% 8.3% Jul-08-09 -591,322 1.1% 3,916,069 8.6% 7.5% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

-1,000,000

-2,000,000

-3,000,000 Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 08-09 08-09 08-09

Reduced Fare Rides Difference from 1 Year Ago Free Rides

Figure 8. CTA: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 29

5. CTA Bus Ridership

CTA bus ridership data are summarized in Table 6, while Figure 9 and Figure 10 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 10, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 9 and improves visualization without the total ridership group.

On average, the CTA provides more than 26.6 million monthly bus trips and total ridership has experienced a slightly upward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 9). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has decreased from 4.2 million to 2.3 million trips (Table 6).

The SRF ridership increases sharply during the first few months of the program to almost 2.2 million trips by October 2008 (Table 6). Free Seniors seem to take fewer trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and surpasses the 2.2 million trips mark in July 2009. By December 2009 the ridership decreases to 1.8 million trips (Table 6).

The Circuit Breaker program began in late October 2008. By July 2009, 8.5 million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, CTA experienced rapid growth from 475,476 CB rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 1,246,209 in December 2009 (Table 6).

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 56.6 million free rides (SRF and Circuit Breakers) on the CTA bus system were provided. This ridership represents 9.5% of CTA‟s total bus ridership, which is conceivably higher than on the CTA rail system perhaps reflecting the non-CBD orientation of a lot of these trips.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 30

Table 6. CTA bus ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent Jan.07 24,546,427 4,203,249 17.1% Feb.07 21,990,047 3,850,590 17.5% Mar.07 26,829,505 4,951,864 18.5% Apr.07 25,272,565 4,094,392 16.2% May.07 27,763,655 5,171,210 18.6% Jun.07 25,535,357 3,746,721 14.7% Jul.07 25,369,859 3,187,579 12.6% Aug.07 25,854,752 3,035,695 11.7% Sep.07 26,732,930 4,531,074 16.9% Oct.07 29,273,922 5,173,985 17.7% Nov.07 26,024,235 4,512,227 17.3% Dec.07 24,078,057 4,425,481 18.4% Jan.08 24,565,524 4,076,617 16.6% Feb.08 24,610,471 4,043,579 16.4% Mar.08 26,362,139 3,682,605 14.0% 602,293 2.3% Apr.08 28,494,855 3,538,176 12.4% 1,624,974 5.7% May.08 29,033,793 3,628,771 12.5% 1,893,650 6.5% Jun.08 27,690,589 2,490,684 9.0% 1,964,621 7.1% Jul.08 28,669,449 2,226,747 7.8% 2,105,791 7.3% Aug.08 27,824,862 1,795,744 6.5% 2,147,922 7.7% Sep.08 29,329,929 3,402,922 11.6% 2,079,303 7.1% Oct.08 31,132,961 3,683,739 11.8% 2,191,563 7.0% 50,419 0.2% Nov.08 26,186,543 2,555,876 9.8% 1,803,319 6.9% 475,476 1.8% Dec. 08 24,298,111 2,331,949 9.6% 1,543,824 6.4% 690,035 2.8% Jan.09 25,031,678 2,722,997 10.9% 1,500,854 6.0% 802,933 3.2% Feb.09 25,042,064 2,678,109 10.7% 1,599,923 6.4% 863,827 3.4% Mar.09 27,646,475 3,048,473 11.0% 1,937,627 7.0% 1,031,002 3.7% Apr.09 26,577,768 2,590,219 9.7% 1,861,711 7.0% 1,094,903 4.1% May.09 27,596,872 2,979,591 10.8% 2,101,218 7.6% 1,232,653 4.5% Jun.09 26,513,768 2,064,515 7.8% 2,098,401 7.9% 1,279,697 4.8% Jul.09 26,863,717 1,700,446 6.3% 2,260,731 8.4% 1,026,883 3.8% Aug.09 25,933,553 1,253,034 4.8% 2,204,848 8.5% 1,159,780 4.5% Sep.09 27,918,297 2,679,272 9.6% 2,256,821 8.1% 1,253,389 4.5% Oct.09 28,728,510 3,106,781 10.8% 2,141,248 7.5% 1,293,486 4.5% Nov.09 26,240,348 2,694,854 10.3% 2,042,666 7.8% 1,278,395 4.9% Dec.09 24,579,746 2,261,824 9.2% 1,817,376 7.4% 1,246,209 5.1% Average* 26,559,537 3,281,155 12.4% 1,899,122 7.2% 985,272 4.0% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 31

35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers

Figure 9. CTA bus ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers Estimated Reduced Fare Seniors

Figure 10. CTA bus ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 32

6. CTA Bus: Day of Week Analysis

A day of week analysis was undertaken to examine whether Free Seniors and Circuit Breakers are riding CTA Bus differently on weekdays and weekends and holidays after the Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breaker programs started. The analysis covers the same period as the ridership analysis, that is, January 2007 to July 2009. Additional information about the travel behavior of Free Seniors emerges from the analysis of the users survey in Chapter 2. However, information available from monthly reports from CTA can be used to obtain overall patterns. Note that time of day information was not available.

A comparison between Free Seniors, Circuit Breakers and all riders is shown in Table 7 and Table 8 and Figure 11, Figure 12 and Figure 13. Seniors riding free (SRF) and Circuit Breakers ride CTA Bus mostly on weekdays, as do all CTA Bus riders. However, in a typical week, the average weekday ridership is slightly lower for Free Seniors (80.0% on average) and Circuit Breakers (79.3% on average) compared to the total ridership (81.1% on average). The reverse is happening on weekends / holidays; the average weekend / holiday percentage ridership for Free Seniors (11.6% and 8.4% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) and Circuit Breakers (11.5% and 9.2% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) is slightly elevated compared to the total ridership (10.7% and 8.1% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average).

The main finding is that seniors and others have very similar riding patterns on weekdays or weekends on the CTA bus system. This is surprising since few seniors work, as we will see later in the discussion of survey results.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 33

Table 7. CTA Bus: Day of Week Ridership

Weekday Saturday Sunday/Holiday Typical Week Month Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Jan.07 20,459,131 2,298,646 1,788,650 24,546,427 Feb.07 18,520,870 2,107,135 1,362,042 21,990,047 Mar.07 22,052,882 3,077,991 1,698,632 26,829,505 Apr.07 20,585,890 2,497,274 2,189,400 25,272,565 May.07 22,991,842 2,565,492 2,206,321 27,763,655 Jun.07 20,459,205 3,232,944 1,843,208 25,535,357 Jul.07 19,860,919 2,655,591 2,853,349 25,369,859 Aug.07 21,418,230 2,630,581 1,805,941 25,854,752 Sep.07 20,480,979 3,397,873 2,854,078 26,732,930 Oct.07 24,636,099 2,762,112 1,875,711 29,273,922 Nov.07 21,317,305 2,610,983 2,095,946 26,024,235 Dec.07 18,798,497 3,010,272 2,269,289 24,078,057 Jan.08 20,597,857 2,160,131 1,807,536 24,565,524 Feb.08 20,488,731 2,553,855 1,567,886 24,610,471 Mar.08 493,518 21,006,735 66,395 3,182,342 42,380 2,173,061 602,293 26,362,139 Apr.08 1,333,661 23,675,890 170,864 2,814,926 120,449 2,004,039 1,624,974 28,494,855 May.08 1,469,729 22,915,979 262,689 3,689,228 161,232 2,428,586 1,893,650 29,033,793 Jun.08 1,567,411 22,132,072 217,438 2,965,367 179,772 2,593,150 1,964,621 27,690,589 Jul.08 1,688,763 23,117,694 216,078 2,804,188 200,950 2,747,567 2,105,791 28,669,449 Aug.08 1,643,673 21,287,699 294,349 3,800,782 209,900 2,736,381 2,147,922 27,824,862 Sep.08 1,677,611 23,918,628 216,367 2,921,332 185,325 2,489,969 2,079,303 29,329,929 Oct.08 1,808,891 44,735 26,080,453 230,251 2,842 3,015,097 152,421 2,842 2,037,409 2,191,563 50,419 31,132,961 Nov.08 1,365,417 347,834 20,123,518 249,494 68,305 3,391,135 188,408 59,337 2,671,872 1,803,319 475,476 26,186,543 Dec.08 1,266,693 552,264 20,212,265 164,341 75,345 2,322,206 112,790 62,426 1,763,639 1,543,824 690,035 24,298,111 Jan.09 1,183,686 617,644 20,241,968 194,491 110,499 2,884,981 122,677 74,790 1,904,728 1,500,854 802,933 25,031,678 Feb.09 1,298,612 684,756 20,573,197 175,673 103,004 2,651,345 125,638 76,067 1,817,523 1,599,923 863,827 25,042,064 Mar.09 1,607,243 834,066 23,043,986 215,228 118,035 2,531,628 115,156 78,901 2,070,861 1,937,627 1,031,002 27,646,475 Apr.09 1,537,863 891,138 22,298,405 206,336 123,781 2,640,518 117,512 79,984 1,638,845 1,861,711 1,094,903 26,577,768 May.09 1,576,196 906,063 21,068,138 288,590 175,835 3,581,994 236,432 150,755 2,946,740 2,101,218 1,232,653 27,596,872 Jun.09 1,705,548 1,027,750 21,727,014 226,840 141,061 2,746,306 166,013 110,886 2,040,448 2,098,401 1,279,697 26,513,768 Jul.09 1,794,425 809,997 21,376,097 222,501 103,923 2,678,489 243,805 112,963 2,809,131 2,260,731 1,026,883 26,863,717 *FS – Free Seniors; CB – Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 34

Table 8. CTA Bus: Percent of Typical Week Ridership

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers Month Weekday Saturday S/H* Weekday Saturday S/H Weekday Saturday S/H Jan.07 83.3% 9.4% 7.3% Feb.07 84.2% 9.6% 6.2% Mar.07 82.2% 11.5% 6.3% Apr.07 81.5% 9.9% 8.7% May.07 82.8% 9.2% 7.9% Jun.07 80.1% 12.7% 7.2% Jul.07 78.3% 10.5% 11.2% Aug.07 82.8% 10.2% 7.0% Sep.07 76.6% 12.7% 10.7% Oct.07 84.2% 9.4% 6.4% Nov.07 81.9% 10.0% 8.1% Dec.07 78.1% 12.5% 9.4% Jan.08 83.8% 8.8% 7.4% Feb.08 83.3% 10.4% 6.4% Mar.08 79.7% 12.1% 8.2% 81.9% 11.0% 7.0% Apr.08 83.1% 9.9% 7.0% 82.1% 10.5% 7.4% May.08 78.9% 12.7% 8.4% 77.6% 13.9% 8.5% Jun.08 79.9% 10.7% 9.4% 79.8% 11.1% 9.2% Jul.08 80.6% 9.8% 9.6% 80.2% 10.3% 9.5% Aug.08 76.5% 13.7% 9.8% 76.5% 13.7% 9.8% Sep.08 81.6% 10.0% 8.5% 80.7% 10.4% 8.9% Oct.08 83.8% 9.7% 6.5% 82.5% 10.5% 7.0% 88.7% 5.6% 5.6% Nov.08 76.8% 12.9% 10.2% 75.7% 13.8% 10.4% 73.2% 14.4% 12.5% Dec.08 83.2% 9.6% 7.3% 82.0% 10.6% 7.3% 80.0% 10.9% 9.0% Jan.09 80.9% 11.5% 7.6% 78.9% 13.0% 8.2% 76.9% 13.8% 9.3% Feb.09 82.2% 10.6% 7.3% 81.2% 11.0% 7.9% 79.3% 11.9% 8.8% Mar.09 83.4% 9.2% 7.5% 82.9% 11.1% 5.9% 80.9% 11.4% 7.7% Apr.09 83.9% 9.9% 6.2% 82.6% 11.1% 6.3% 81.4% 11.3% 7.3% May.09 76.3% 13.0% 10.7% 75.0% 13.7% 11.3% 73.5% 14.3% 12.2% Jun.09 81.9% 10.4% 7.7% 81.3% 10.8% 7.9% 80.3% 11.0% 8.7% Jul.09 79.6% 10.0% 10.5% 79.4% 9.8% 10.8% 78.9% 10.1% 11.0% *S/H – Saturday/Holiday

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 35

100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07 Mar.07May.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08May.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09May.09

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers

Figure 11. CTA Bus Weekday: Percent ridership of typical week

16.0% 14.0%

14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0%

2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jan.07 Jul.07 Jan.08 Jul.08 Jan.09 Jul.09 Mar.07May.07 Sep.07Nov.07 Mar.08May.08 Sep.08Nov.08 Mar.09May.09 Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 May.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09 May.09

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers

Figure 12. CTA Bus Saturday: Percent ridership of typical week Figure 13. CTA Bus Sunday/Holiday: Pct. ridership of typical week

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 36

7. CTA Bus: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

The following examples illustrate the method (discussed earlier) to estimate short-term ridership impacts. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership as a percentage of total ridership was 3.8% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 9). In addition, in April 2008, CTA reported 1,624,974 SRF bus rides representing 5.7% of the total ridership (Table 9). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 5.7% - 3.8% = 1.9% gain in new free rides (Table 9).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008. In October 2008 the CTA reported, in addition to 2,191,563 SRF bus rides, 50,419 CB bus rides (Table 6) or a combined 2,241,982 free rides representing 7.2% of total ridership (Table 9). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 5.8% of ridership (Table 9). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 7.2% – 5.8% = 1.4% (Table 9). The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior riders between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 5.6%. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 8.0%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 8.0% - 5.6% = 2.4%.

Figure 14 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership of the first effect is shown as (darker blue) bars going downwards while the ridership impact of the second effect as (lighter blue) bars going upwards.

Overall, since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in CTA bus ridership due to the newness of the programs. According to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average about 900,000 new rides per month compared to an average 1.3 million senior rides per month on a reduced fare. This represents an average 69% increase in free rides as a result of the two programs from April 2008 to March 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 37

Table 9. CTA Bus: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Difference of Reduced Fare Monthly Rides Difference Free Rides and Rides Difference Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare from 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%)

Apr-07-08 -556,216 3.8% 1,624,974 5.7% 1.9% May-07-08 -1,542,438 6.1% 1,893,650 6.5% 0.4% Jun-07-08 -1,256,038 5.7% 1,964,621 7.1% 1.4% Jul-07-08 -960,831 4.8% 2,105,791 7.3% 2.5% Aug-07-08 -1,239,951 5.3% 2,147,922 7.7% 2.4% Sep-07-08 -1,128,152 5.3% 2,079,303 7.1% 1.7% Oct-07-08 -1,490,246 5.8% 2,241,982 7.2% 1.4% Nov-07-08 -1,956,351 7.6% 2,278,795 8.7% 1.1% Dec-07-08 -2,093,532 8.8% 2,233,859 9.2% 0.4% Jan-08-09 -1,353,620 5.7% 2,303,787 9.2% 3.5% Feb-08-09 -1,365,470 5.7% 2,463,750 9.8% 4.1% Mar-08-09 -634,132 2.9% 2,968,629 10.7% 7.8% Apr-08-09 -947,956 2.7% 2,956,614 11.1% 8.5% May-08-09 -649,180 1.7% 3,333,871 12.1% 10.4% Jun-08-09 -426,168 1.2% 3,378,098 12.7% 11.5% Jul-08-09 -526,301 1.4% 3,287,614 12.2% 10.8% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

-1,000,000

-2,000,000

-3,000,000 Apr-07- May-07- Jun-07- Jul-07- Aug-07- Sep-07- Oct-07- Nov-07- Dec-07- Jan-08- Feb-08- Mar-08- 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09

Reduced Fare Rides Difference from 1 Year Ago Free Rides

Figure 14. CTA Bus: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 38

8. CTA Rail Ridership

CTA rail ridership data are summarized in Table 10, while Figure 15 and Figure 16 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 16, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 15 and improves visualization without the total ridership group.

On average, the CTA provides more than 16.4 million monthly rail trips and total ridership has experienced an upward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 15). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has decreased from 707,899 to 440,067 trips (Table 10).

Moreover, the Free Seniors ridership increased sharply during the first few months of the program to more than 380,000 million trips by October 2008 (Table 10). Seniors seem to take fewer free trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and surpasses the 409,000 trips mark by July 2009. By December 2009 the ridership deceases to 351,000 trips (Table 10).

The Circuit Breaker program began in late October 2008. By December 2009, more than 3.1 million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, CTA experienced rapid growth from 90,673 CB rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 273,274 in December 2009 (Table 10).

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 10.6 million free rail rides (Free Seniors and Circuit Breakers) on the CTA system were provided. This ridership represents 2.9% of CTA‟s total rail ridership considerably less percentage wise than CTA bus free ridership.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 39

Table 10. CTA rail ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent Jan.07 15,204,197 707,899 4.7% Feb.07 13,696,980 642,715 4.7% Mar.07 16,201,727 799,696 4.9% Apr.07 15,152,310 668,164 4.4% May.07 16,445,465 834,984 5.1% Jun.07 16,506,510 650,269 3.9% Jul.07 16,925,607 559,501 3.3% Aug.07 16,913,220 537,909 3.2% Sep.07 16,392,215 744,994 4.5% Oct.07 17,725,701 854,618 4.8% Nov.07 15,419,426 750,723 4.9% Dec.07 13,689,639 652,197 4.8% Jan.08 14,857,327 697,801 4.7% Feb.08 14,784,024 687,238 4.6% Mar.08 15,410,177 595,716 3.9% 115,501 0.7% Apr.08 16,494,941 564,392 3.4% 273,835 1.7% May.08 16,568,253 588,050 3.5% 311,160 1.9% Jun.08 16,971,391 431,754 2.5% 331,259 2.0% Jul.08 17,958,763 398,172 2.2% 357,000 2.0% Aug.08 17,728,132 331,242 1.9% 357,932 2.0% Sep.08 17,800,160 592,619 3.3% 351,921 2.0% Oct.08 18,947,473 648,023 3.4% 380,662 2.0% 9,533 0.1% Nov.08 15,777,329 458,380 2.9% 317,568 2.0% 90,673 0.6% Dec. 08 14,839,275 423,490 2.9% 306,287 2.1% 138,895 0.9% Jan.09 15,254,463 459,317 3.0% 301,550 2.0% 163,790 1.1% Feb.09 15,035,685 454,581 3.0% 304,994 2.0% 174,271 1.2% Mar.09 16,739,345 518,554 3.1% 357,995 2.1% 208,325 1.2% Apr.09 16,777,876 463,604 2.8% 338,368 2.0% 226,644 1.4% May.09 16,725,446 518,010 3.1% 365,793 2.2% 256,885 1.5% Jun.09 17,447,772 397,119 2.3% 384,143 2.2% 287,236 1.6% Jul.09 18,457,779 333,151 1.8% 409,174 2.2% 219,281 1.2% Aug.09 17,489,396 245,804 1.4% 394,848 2.3% 251,273 1.4% Sep.09 18,210,592 504,536 2.8% 404,737 2.2% 268,624 1.5% Oct.09 18,699,123 588,348 3.1% 400,170 2.1% 280,858 1.5% Nov.09 16,465,014 509,248 3.1% 373,260 2.3% 278,173 1.7% Dec.09 14,993,273 440,067 2.9% 354,524 2.4% 273,274 1.8% Average* 16,408,500 562,580 3.5% 351,294 2.1% 222,729 1.3% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 40

20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers

Figure 15. CTA rail ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers Estimated Reduced Fare Seniors

Figure 16. CTA rail ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 41

9. CTA Rail: Day of Week Analysis

A day of week analysis was undertaken to examine whether Seniors Riding Free and Circuit Breakers are riding CTA Rail differently on weekdays and weekends and holidays after the Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breaker programs started. The analysis covers the same period as the ridership analysis, that is, January 2007 to July 2009. Additional information about the travel behavior of Free Seniors emerges from the analysis of the users survey in Chapter 2. However, information available from monthly reports from CTA can be used to obtain overall patterns. Note that time of day information was not available.

A comparison between Free Seniors, Circuit Breakers and all riders is shown in Table 11 and Table 12 and Figure 17, Figure 18 and Figure 19. Seniors riding free and Circuit Breakers ride CTA Rail mostly on weekdays, as do all CTA Rail riders. However, in a typical week, the average weekday percentage ridership is slightly higher for seniors riding free (83.1% on average) and lower for Circuit Breakers (78.6% on average) compared to the total ridership (82.9% on average). The reverse is happening on weekends / holidays; the average weekend / holiday percentage ridership for seniors riding free (9.3% and 7.5% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) is slightly lower, and that of Circuit Breakers (11.5% and 9.8% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) is slightly elevated compared to the total ridership (9.5% and 7.6% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average).

The main finding is that seniors and others have similar riding patterns on weekdays or weekends on the CTA rail system. This is surprising since few seniors work, as we will see later in the discussion of survey results.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 42

Table 11. CTA Rail: Day of Week Ridership

Weekday Saturday Sunday/Holiday Typical Week Month Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Seniors CB All Jan.07 12,899,940 1,244,087 1,060,170 15,204,197 Feb.07 11,760,416 1,149,688 786,876 13,696,980 Mar.07 13,516,919 1,729,490 955,318 16,201,727 Apr.07 12,659,546 1,320,716 1,172,048 15,152,310 May.07 13,853,856 1341554 1,250,055 16,445,465 Jun.07 13,429,192 1,917,131 1,160,187 16,506,510 Jul.07 13,575,879 1,528,176 1,821,552 16,925,607 Aug.07 14,270,561 1,531,575 1,111,084 16,913,220 Sep.07 12,854,748 1,886,099 1,651,368 16,392,215 Oct.07 15,167,065 1,452,127 1,106,509 17,725,701 Nov.07 13,060,037 1,314,720 1,044,669 15,419,426 Dec.07 10,991,688 1,519,045 1,178,906 13,689,639 Jan.08 12,786,350 1,105,095 965,882 14,857,327 Feb.08 12,647,402 1,302,557 834,065 14,784,024 Mar.08 99,864 12,663,063 9,024 1,632,123 6,613 1,114,991 115,501 15,410,177 Apr.08 236,189 14,218,188 21,462 1,318,808 16,184 957,945 273,835 16,494,941 May.08 255,261 13,552,732 32,765 1,768,087 23,134 1,247,434 311,160 16,568,253 Jun.08 274,192 13,870,654 29,949 1,608,899 27,118 1,491,838 331,259 16,971,391 Jul.08 296,380 14,784,614 30,172 1,561,073 30,448 1,613,076 357,000 17,958,763 Aug.08 286,652 13,939,802 40,267 2,132,151 31,013 1,656,179 357,932 17,728,132 Sep.08 294,690 14,812,632 30,016 1,590,680 27,215 1,396,848 351,921 17,800,160 Oct.08 324,833 8,378 16,025,187 31,508 598 1,648,487 24,321 557 1,273,403 380,662 9,533 18,947,473 Nov.08 250,717 65,420 12,439,041 36,739 12,952 1,897,280 30,112 12,301 1,441,011 317,568 90,673 15,777,329 Dec.08 258,135 109,747 12,556,856 27,228 15,400 1,288,428 20,924 13,748 993,992 306,287 138,895 14,839,275 Jan.09 248,094 125,831 12,584,910 31,466 21,957 1,557,898 21,990 16,002 1,111,649 301,550 163,790 15,254,463 Feb.09 255,852 137,649 12,599,488 28,298 20,880 1,454,401 20,844 15,742 981,803 304,994 174,271 15,035,685 Mar.09 306,588 167,192 14,030,900 31,828 23,931 1,499,659 19,578 17,201 1,208,786 357,995 208,325 16,739,345 Apr.09 287,800 183,085 14,296,856 30,521 25,573 1,520,399 20,047 17,986 960,621 338,368 226,644 16,777,876 May.09 287,764 188,486 13,152,857 40,483 35,482 1,902,050 37,546 32,917 1,670,539 365,793 256,885 16,725,446 Jun.09 320,896 227,768 14,356,097 34,960 32,192 1,691,804 28,287 27,276 1,399,871 384,143 287,236 17,447,772 Jul.09 333,143 170,374 14,693,489 34,934 22,887 1,706,357 41,097 26,020 2,057,933 409,174 219,281 18,457,779 *FS – Free Seniors; CB – Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 43

Table 12. CTA Rail: Percent of Typical Week Ridership

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers Month Weekday Saturday S/H* Weekday Saturday S/H Weekday Saturday S/H Jan.07 84.8% 8.2% 7.0% Feb.07 85.9% 8.4% 5.7% Mar.07 83.4% 10.7% 5.9% Apr.07 83.5% 8.7% 7.7% May.07 84.2% 8.2% 7.6% Jun.07 81.4% 11.6% 7.0% Jul.07 80.2% 9.0% 10.8% Aug.07 84.4% 9.1% 6.6% Sep.07 78.4% 11.5% 10.1% Oct.07 85.6% 8.2% 6.2% Nov.07 84.7% 8.5% 6.8% Dec.07 80.3% 11.1% 8.6% Jan.08 86.1% 7.4% 6.5% Feb.08 85.5% 8.8% 5.6% Mar.08 82.2% 10.6% 7.2% 86.5% 7.8% 5.7% Apr.08 86.2% 8.0% 5.8% 86.3% 7.8% 5.9% May.08 81.8% 10.7% 7.5% 82.0% 10.5% 7.4% Jun.08 81.7% 9.5% 8.8% 82.8% 9.0% 8.2% Jul.08 82.3% 8.7% 9.0% 83.0% 8.5% 8.5% Aug.08 78.6% 12.0% 9.3% 80.1% 11.2% 8.7% Sep.08 83.2% 8.9% 7.8% 83.7% 8.5% 7.7% Oct.08 84.6% 8.7% 6.7% 85.3% 8.3% 6.4% 87.9% 6.3% 5.8% Nov.08 78.8% 12.0% 9.1% 78.9% 11.6% 9.5% 72.1% 14.3% 13.6% Dec.08 84.6% 8.7% 6.7% 84.3% 8.9% 6.8% 79.0% 11.1% 9.9% Jan.09 82.5% 10.2% 7.3% 82.3% 10.4% 7.3% 76.8% 13.4% 9.8% Feb.09 83.8% 9.7% 6.5% 83.9% 9.3% 6.8% 79.0% 12.0% 9.0% Mar.09 83.8% 9.0% 7.2% 85.6% 8.9% 5.5% 80.3% 11.5% 8.3% Apr.09 85.2% 9.1% 5.7% 85.1% 9.0% 5.9% 80.8% 11.3% 7.9% May.09 78.6% 11.4% 10.0% 78.7% 11.1% 10.3% 73.4% 13.8% 12.8% Jun.09 82.3% 9.7% 8.0% 83.5% 9.1% 7.4% 79.3% 11.2% 9.5% Jul.09 79.6% 9.2% 11.1% 81.4% 8.5% 10.0% 77.7% 10.4% 11.9% *S/H – Saturday/Holiday

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 44

Figure 17. CTA Rail Weekday: Percent ridership of typical week

16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09

Jan.07 Jan.08 Jan.09

Mar.07 Mar.08 Mar.09

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09

Sep.07 Nov.07 Sep.08 Nov.08

May.07 May.08 May.09

Jan.07 Jan.08 Jan.09

Mar.07 Mar.08 Mar.09

Sep.07 Nov.07 Sep.08 Nov.08

May.07 May.08 May.09

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers

Figure 18. CTA Rail Saturday: Percent ridership of typical week Figure 19. CTA Rail Sunday/Holiday: Pct. ridership of typical week

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 45

10. CTA Rail: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

The following examples illustrate the method to estimate the short-term ridership impact of the Free Ride programs that was discussed earlier. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership as a percentage of total ridership was 1% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 13). In addition, in April 2008, CTA reported 273,835 SRF rail rides representing 1.7% of the total ridership (Table 10). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 1.7% - 1% = 0.7% gain in new free rides (Table 13).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008. In October 2008 the CTA reported, in addition to 380,662 SRF rail rides, 9,533 CB rail rides (Table 10) or a combined 390,195 free rides representing 2.1% of total ridership (Table 13). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 1.4% of ridership (Table 13). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 2.1% – 1.4% = 0.7% (Table 13). The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior riders between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 1.4%. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 2.4%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 2.4% - 1.4% = 1%.

Figure 20 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership of the first effect is shown as (darker blue) bars going downwards while the ridership impact of the second effect as (lighter blue) bars going upwards.

Overall, since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in CTA rail ridership due to the newness of the programs. According to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average 198,000 new rides per month compared to an average 197,000 senior rides per month on a reduced fare. This represents an average 200% increase in free rides as a result of the two programs from April 2008 to March 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 46

Table 13. CTA Rail: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Difference of Reduced Fare Monthly Rides Difference Free Rides and Rides Difference Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare from 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%)

Apr-07-08 -103,772 1.0% 273,835 1.7% 0.7% May-07-08 -246,934 1.5% 311,160 1.9% 0.4% Jun-07-08 -218,515 1.4% 331,259 2.0% 0.6% Jul-07-08 -161,329 1.1% 357,000 2.0% 0.9% Aug-07-08 -206,667 1.3% 357,932 2.0% 0.7% Sep-07-08 -152,375 1.2% 351,921 2.0% 0.8% Oct-07-08 -206,595 1.4% 390,195 2.1% 0.7% Nov-07-08 -292,343 2.0% 408,241 2.6% 0.6% Dec-07-08 -228,707 1.9% 445,182 3.0% 1.1% Jan-08-09 -238,484 1.7% 465,340 3.1% 1.4% Feb-08-09 -232,657 1.6% 479,265 3.2% 1.6% Mar-08-09 -77,162 0.8% 566,320 3.4% 2.6% Apr-08-09 -100,788 0.7% 565,012 3.4% 2.7% May-08-09 -70,040 0.5% 622,678 3.7% 3.3% Jun-08-09 -34,635 0.3% 671,379 3.8% 3.6% Jul-08-09 -65,021 0.4% 628,455 3.4% 3.0% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 -100,000 -200,000 -300,000 -400,000 Apr- May- Jun-07- Jul-07- Aug- Sep- Oct-07- Nov- Dec- Jan-08- Feb- Mar- 07-08 07-08 08 08 07-08 07-08 08 07-08 07-08 09 08-09 08-09

Reduced Fare Rides Difference from 1 Year Ago Free Rides

Figure 20. CTA Rail: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 47

11. Metra Ridership

Metra ridership data are summarized in Table 14, while Figure 21 and Figure 22 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 22, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 21 and improves visualization without the total ridership group.

On average, Metra provides more than 7 million monthly trips (Table 14) and total ridership has experienced a slightly upward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 21). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has decreased in a downward movement from an estimated 278,800 to 147,387 trips (Table 14). Note that total ridership was down five percent in 2009 compared to 2008 within the economic downturn and lower 2009 gas prices compared to 2008‟s record high gas prices.

Moreover, the SRF ridership increases sharply during the first few months of the program to more than 300,000 trips by October 2008 (Table 14). Seniors seem to take fewer free trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and approaches the 300,000 trips mark by July 2009. By December 2009 the ridership decreases to almost 274,000 trips (Table 14).

The Circuit Breaker program began in late October 2008. By December 2009, more than 215,000 free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, Metra experienced rapid growth from 474 CB rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 27,800 in December 2009 (Table 14).

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 5.9 million free rides (Seniors riding free and Circuit Breakers) on the Metra system were provided. This ridership represents 3.8% of Metra‟s total ridership.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 48

Table 14. METRA ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent Jan.07 6,588,031 278,800 4.2% Feb.07 6,282,686 251,279 4.0% Mar.07 6,731,178 292,326 4.3% Apr.07 6,718,379 285,724 4.3% May.07 7,041,967 309,320 4.4% Jun.07 7,264,595 326,495 4.5% Jul.07 7,468,791 342,365 4.6% Aug.07 7,251,261 323,783 4.5% Sep.07 6,965,675 295,063 4.2% Oct.07 7,481,652 348,174 4.7% Nov.07 7,068,045 314,979 4.5% Dec.07 6,479,353 285,431 4.4% Jan.08 7,788,856 347,014 4.5% Feb.08 6,357,486 254,511 4.0% Mar.08 6,577,951 219,785 3.3% 54,547 0.8% Apr.08 7,040,429 175,968 2.5% 162,188 2.3% May.08 7,244,632 169,598 2.3% 217,516 3.0% Jun.08 7,610,992 187,945 2.5% 243,724 3.2% Jul.08 8,034,335 211,914 2.6% 276,248 3.4% Aug.08 7,531,153 183,246 2.4% 267,553 3.6% Sep.08 7,406,216 171,295 2.3% 254,879 3.4% Oct.08 7,576,393 177,157 2.3% 302,767 4.0% 88 0.0% Nov.08 6,913,812 144,922 2.1% 258,536 3.7% 474 0.0% Dec. 08 6,726,617 135,222 2.0% 272,641 4.1% 1,869 0.0% Jan.09 6,806,038 142,121 2.1% 256,679 3.8% 1,280 0.0% Feb.09 6,575,878 133,331 2.0% 252,921 3.8% 1,228 0.0% Mar.09 6,836,626 153,549 2.2% 281,499 4.1% 4,645 0.1% Apr.09 6,744,905 160,741 2.4% 271,083 4.0% 10,594 0.2% May.09 6,681,657 151,052 2.3% 270,213 4.0% 13,755 0.2% Jun.09 7,205,961 180,197 2.5% 297,650 4.1% 19,380 0.3% Jul.08 7,396,345 194,431 2.6% 302,444 4.1% 22,444 0.3% Aug.09 6,987,967 167,238 2.4% 291,786 4.2% 25,718 0.4% Sep.09 6,947,571 157,699 2.3% 295,305 4.3% 27,273 0.4% Oct.09 6,957,691 163,761 2.4% 306,312 4.4% 30,387 0.4% Nov.09 6,694,126 153,515 2.3% 270,006 4.0% 28,796 0.4% Dec. 09 6,449,783 147,387 2.3% 273,562 4.2% 27,800 0.4% Average* 7,012,084 220,482 3.1% 267,882 3.8% 15,403 0.2% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 49

Figure 21. Metra ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

Figure 22. Metra ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 50

12. Metra: Time of Day and Day of Week Analysis

A time of day and day of week analysis was undertaken to examine whether seniors are riding Metra at different days and times after the Seniors Ride Free program started. The analysis covers the period from January 2007 to March 2009. Additional information about the travel behavior of seniors riding free emerges from the analysis of the users survey in Chapter 2. However, information available from the Regional Transportation Asset Management System (RTAMS) can be used to obtain overall patterns.

Peak and off-peak ridership for seniors riding free and the general public is shown in Table 15 and Figure 24. The majority of Metra riders are peak-hour riders. Indeed of all rides, between 70% and 80% occur during peak hours (6-9 am, 3-6 pm) while between 20% and 30% of the rides occur during off-peak hours.

Day-of-week ridership analysis is shown in Table 15 and Figure 23, Figure 25, and Figure 26. Seniors under the SRF program ride Metra mostly on weekdays, as do all Metra riders. However, in a typical week, the average weekday ridership is slightly lower for seniors riding free (91.1% on average) compared to the total ridership (93.3% on average). The reverse is happening on weekends / holidays; the average weekend / holiday percentage ridership for seniors riding free is slightly elevated (5.4% and 3.5% respectively for Saturday and Sunday or Holiday, on average) compared to the total ridership (4.1% and 2.5% respectively for Saturday and Sunday or Holiday, on average).

Seniors and others have similar riding patterns on weekdays or weekends on the Metra system. This is surprising since few seniors work, as we will see later in the discussion of survey results.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 51

Table 15. Metra: Time of Day and Day of Week Ridership

Average Weekday (5 days) Average Saturday Average Sunday/Holiday Typical Week Month Seniors All Seniors All Seniors All Seniors All Peak Off-Peak Jan.07 1,153,000 335,500 63,300 35,800 1,587,600 Feb.07 1,155,000 324,000 57,600 33,100 1,569,700 Mar.07 1,174,000 317,500 55,300 32,800 1,579,600 Apr.07 1,174,000 317,500 55,300 32,800 1,579,600 May.07 1,196,725 357,105 65,961 42,973 1,662,764 Jun.07 1,196,725 357,105 65,961 42,973 1,662,764 Jul.07 1,193,470 385,302 73,592 49,243 1,701,607 Aug.07 1,183,668 399,810 78,446 49,551 1,711,475 Sep.07 1,190,352 396,510 81,556 50,291 1,718,709 Oct.07 1,205,935 385,050 76,940 47,231 1,715,156 Nov.07 1,216,620 378,290 74,394 45,185 1,714,489 Dec.07 1,183,878 374,808 71,097 40,644 1,670,427 Jan.08 1,178,500 359,000 64,400 34,800 1,636,700 Feb.08 1,180,000 351,000 60,700 32,700 1,624,400 Mar.08 27,780 1,208,000 345,500 1,363 56,800 909 31,200 30,052 1,641,500 Apr.08 33,760 1,208,000 345,500 2,059 56,800 1,354 31,200 37,173 1,641,500 May.08 45,810 1,246,307 402,075 3,069 76,813 1,954 46,984 50,833 1,772,179 Jun.08 51,320 1,246,307 402,075 3,899 76,813 2,517 46,984 57,736 1,772,179 Jul.08 56,345 1,248,880 434,388 3,465 88,177 2,893 57,769 62,703 1,829,214 Aug.08 56,470 1,237,480 450,920 3,405 96,274 2,670 65,851 62,545 1,850,525 Sep.08 55,515 1,236,268 443,218 2,995 89,819 1,949 62,345 60,459 1,831,650 Oct.08 60,585 1,238,945 427,583 3,674 83,037 2,344 56,056 66,603 1,805,621 Nov.08 59,530 1,239,100 411,458 3,672 75,507 2,327 47,606 65,529 1,773,671 Dec.08 56,805 1,212,637 408,888 3,460 73,083 1,772 43,522 62,037 1,738,130 Jan.09 55,895 1,210,500 392,500 2,624 66,500 1,759 38,600 60,278 1,708,100 Feb.09 58,265 1,213,500 379,000 2,961 63,300 2,007 37,700 63,233 1,693,500 Mar.09 58,755 1,214,000 366,000 3,464 60,200 1,826 38,600 64,045 1,678,800 Source: Regional Transportation Asset Management System (accessed June 2009)

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 52

Table 16. Metra: Percent of Typical Week Ridership

All Riders Free Seniors Month Average Weekday Avg. Saturday Avg. S/H Avg. Wkday Avg. Sat. Avg. S/H Peak Off-Peak Jan.07 72.6% 21.1% 4.0% 2.3% Feb.07 73.6% 20.6% 3.7% 2.1% Mar.07 74.3% 20.1% 3.5% 2.1% Apr.07 74.3% 20.1% 3.5% 2.1% May.07 72.0% 21.5% 4.0% 2.6% Jun.07 72.0% 21.5% 4.0% 2.6% Jul.07 70.1% 22.6% 4.3% 2.9% Aug.07 69.2% 23.4% 4.6% 2.9% Sep.07 69.3% 23.1% 4.7% 2.9% Oct.07 70.3% 22.4% 4.5% 2.8% Nov.07 71.0% 22.1% 4.3% 2.6% Dec.07 70.9% 22.4% 4.3% 2.4% Jan.08 72.0% 21.9% 3.9% 2.1% Feb.08 72.6% 21.6% 3.7% 2.0% Mar.08 73.6% 21.0% 3.5% 1.9% 92.4% 4.5% 3.0% Apr.08 73.6% 21.0% 3.5% 1.9% 90.8% 5.5% 3.6% May.08 70.3% 22.7% 4.3% 2.7% 90.1% 6.0% 3.8% Jun.08 70.3% 22.7% 4.3% 2.7% 88.9% 6.8% 4.4% Jul.08 68.3% 23.7% 4.8% 3.2% 89.9% 5.5% 4.6% Aug.08 66.9% 24.4% 5.2% 3.6% 90.3% 5.4% 4.3% Sep.08 67.5% 24.2% 4.9% 3.4% 91.8% 5.0% 3.2% Oct.08 68.6% 23.7% 4.6% 3.1% 91.0% 5.5% 3.5% Nov.08 69.9% 23.2% 4.3% 2.7% 90.8% 5.6% 3.6% Dec.08 69.8% 23.5% 4.2% 2.5% 91.6% 5.6% 2.9% Jan.09 70.9% 23.0% 3.9% 2.3% 92.7% 4.4% 2.9% Feb.09 71.7% 22.4% 3.7% 2.2% 92.1% 4.7% 3.2% Mar.09 72.3% 21.8% 3.6% 2.3% 91.7% 5.4% 2.9% Average 71.0% 22.3% 4.1% 2.5% 91.1% 5.4% 3.5%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 53

90.0% 96.0% 95.0% 80.0% 94.0% 70.0% 93.0% 92.0% 60.0% 91.0% 50.0% 90.0% 40.0% 89.0% 88.0% 30.0% 87.0% 20.0% 86.0% 10.0% 0.0%

Jul.07 Jul.08

3 5 7 9

Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 May.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09 1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

All Riders Free Seniors Average Wkday - Peak Average Wkday - Off Peak

Figure 23. Metra Avg. Wkday: Percent ridership of typical week Figure 24. Metra All Riders: Time of day percentage split

8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jul.07 Jul.08 Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 May.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09 Jul.07 Jul.08 Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Sep.07 Nov.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 May.08 Sep.08 Nov.08 Jan.09 Mar.09 All Riders Free Seniors All Riders Free Seniors

Figure 25. Metra Avg. Saturday: Percent ridership of typical week Figure 26. Metra Avg. Sunday/Holiday: Pct. ridership of typical week

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 54

13. Metra: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

It should be noted that reduced fares on Metra are not limited to seniors and low-income people with disabilities, but are also available to children, students (time restricted), young adults (time restricted), and military personnel in uniform. The following examples illustrate the method about short-term ridership impacts discussed earlier. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership as a percentage of total ridership was 1.8% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 17). In addition, in April 2008, Metra reported 162,188 SRF rides representing 2.3% of the total ridership (Table 17). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 2.3% - 1.8% = 0.5% gain in new free rides (Table 17).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008. In October 2008 Metra reported, in addition to 302,767 SRF rides, 88 CB rides (Table 14) or a combined 302,855 free rides representing 4% of total ridership (Table 17). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 2.3% of ridership (Table 17). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 4% – 2.3% = 1.7% (Table 17). The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior rides between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 2.0% of total ridership. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 3.6%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 3.6% - 2.0% = 1.6% which is rather substantial.

Figure 27 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership of the first effect is shown as (darker blue) bars going downwards while the ridership impact of the second effect as (lighter blue) bars going upwards.

Overall, since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in Metra ridership due to the newness of the programs. According to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average almost 116,000 new rides per month compared to an average 139,000 senior rides per month on a reduced fare. This represents an average 183% increase in free rides as a result of the two programs from April 2008 to March 2009.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 55

Table 17. METRA: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Difference of Reduced Fare Monthly Rides Difference Free Rides and Rides Difference Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare from 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%) Apr-07-08 -109,757 1.8% 162,188 2.3% 0.6% May-07-08 -139,722 2.1% 217,516 3.0% 1.0% Jun-07-08 -138,551 2.0% 243,724 3.2% 1.2% Jul-07-08 -130,451 1.9% 276,248 3.4% 1.5% Aug-07-08 -140,537 2.0% 267,553 3.6% 1.5% Sep-07-08 -123,768 1.9% 254,879 3.4% 1.5% Oct-07-08 -171,018 2.3% 302,855 4.0% 1.7% Nov-07-08 -170,057 2.4% 259,010 3.7% 1.4% Dec-07-08 -150,209 2.4% 274,510 4.1% 1.7% Jan-08-09 -204,892 2.4% 257,959 3.8% 1.4% Feb-08-09 -121,180 2.0% 254,149 3.9% 1.9% Mar-08-09 -66,235 1.1% 286,144 4.2% 3.1% Apr-08-09 -15,227 0.1% 281,677 4.2% 4.1% May-08-09 -18,546 0.1% 283,968 4.2% 4.2% Jun-08-09 -7,748 0.0% 317,030 4.4% 4.4% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

Figure 27. METRA: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 56

14. Pace Ridership

Pace ridership data are summarized in Table 18, while Figure 28 and Figure 29 show the trend lines for the various ridership groups. Figure 29, in particular, is a blowup of Figure 28 and improves visualization without the total ridership group. These data show similar broad patterns as do other service board ridership data.

On average, Pace provides almost 2.6 million monthly trips (Table 18) and total ridership has experienced a slight downward trend between January 2007 and December 2009 (Figure 28). At the same time, the estimated reduced-fare ridership has shown a decrease from an estimated 323,764 to 150,865 trips (Table 18).

Moreover, the SRF ridership increases sharply during the first few months of the program to almost 200,000 trips by October 2008 (Table 18). Seniors seem to take fewer free trips during the winter of 2008, but ridership picks up again and reaches 183,000 trips by July 2009. By December 2009 the ridership decreases to about 135,000 trips (Table 18).

The Circuit Breaker program began in late October 2008. By December 2009, more than one million free rides had been provided to people with disabilities. During that period, Pace experienced rapid growth from 26,049 CB rides in November 2008, the first full month of the program, to 90,579 in December 2009 (Table 18).

Between March 2008 and December 2009, a total of 4.5 million free rides (seniors riding free and Circuit Breakers) on the Pace system were provided. This ridership represents 8.2% of Pace‟s total ridership.

Finally, ADA paratransit ridership appears to be rather insensitive to the monthly changes in Free Senior and Circuit Breaker ridership (Figure 29). There appears to be little, if any, diversion from ADA special services to free Circuit Breaker rides.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 57

Table 18. PACE ridership by month Month Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Percent Seniors Ride Free Percent Circuit Breakers Percent ADA Percent Jan.07 2,574,841 323,764 12.6% Feb.07 2,223,550 286,184 12.9% Mar.07 2,687,788 358,982 13.4% Apr.07 2,635,159 341,299 13.0% May.07 2,896,529 398,326 13.8% Jun.07 2,740,604 283,977 10.4% Jul.07 2,632,854 275,240 10.5% Aug.07 2,852,690 277,536 9.7% Sep.07 2,737,279 345,420 12.6% Oct.07 3,101,228 407,229 13.1% Nov.07 2,669,918 320,122 12.0% Dec.07 2,359,248 295,445 12.5% Jan.08 2,498,560 311,310 12.5% 43,887 1.8% Feb.08 2,421,748 305,192 12.6% 41,037 1.7% Mar.08 2,586,126 284,411 11.0% 50,912 2.0% 42,892 1.7% Apr.08 2,876,174 296,906 10.3% 139,908 4.9% 47,519 1.7% May.08 2,892,777 294,274 10.2% 167,568 5.8% 42,852 1.5% Jun.08 2,762,652 191,771 6.9% 174,207 6.3% 43,824 1.6% Jul.08 2,871,351 172,719 6.0% 186,180 6.5% 43,402 1.5% Aug.08 2,909,526 183,025 6.3% 190,322 6.5% 45,528 1.6% Sep.08 2,996,167 265,695 8.9% 182,410 6.1% 48,194 1.6% Oct.08 3,206,616 294,984 9.2% 195,245 6.1% 1,217 0.0% 51,330 1.6% Nov.08 2,599,659 212,185 8.2% 152,528 5.9% 26,049 1.0% 44,065 1.7% Dec. 08 2,303,471 183,761 8.0% 119,182 5.2% 44,599 1.9% 50,905 2.2% Jan.09 2,094,898 188,282 9.0% 112,335 5.4% 52,741 2.5% 40,907 2.0% Feb.09 2,147,971 192,921 9.0% 128,022 6.0% 61,387 2.9% 43,312 2.0% Mar.09 2,318,752 201,684 8.7% 138,100 6.0% 74,048 3.2% 45,740 2.0% Apr.09 2,304,108 195,787 8.5% 152,311 6.6% 82,269 3.6% 47,246 2.1% May.09 2,329,083 201,905 8.7% 169,707 7.3% 90,128 3.9% 44,831 1.9% Jun.09 2,228,335 134,094 6.0% 170,426 7.6% 94,163 4.2% 48,251 2.2% Jul.09 2,246,931 115,402 5.1% 183,323 8.2% 69,555 3.1% 47,602 2.1% Aug.09 2,227,151 113,778 5.1% 179,902 8.1% 82,864 3.7% 47,994 2.2% Sep.09 2,443,967 186,587 7.6% 187,153 7.7% 92,434 3.8% 43,454 1.8% Oct.09 2,449,287 199,495 8.1% 175,282 7.2% 97,280 4.0% 45,624 1.9% Nov.09 2,193,531 173,011 7.9% 163,741 7.5% 94,943 4.3% 44,092 2.0% Dec.09 2,071,132 150,865 7.3% 134,981 6.5% 90,579 4.4% 50,905 2.5% Average* 2,558,102 248,988 9.6% 160,111 6.5% 66,104 3.3% 45,145 1.9% *Average for SRF is taken between April 2008 and December 2009; average for Circuit Breakers is taken between November 2008 and December 2009

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 58

3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Ridership Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers

Figure 28. Pace ridership by month: Total ridership, Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breakers

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jul.09 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec. 08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09Jun.09 Aug.09Sep.09Oct.09Nov.09Dec.09

Total Reduced Fare Seniors Ride Free Circuit Breakers Suburban ADA Paratransit Estimated Reduced fare Seniors

Figure 29. Pace ridership by month: Reduced Fare, Seniors Ride Free, Circuit Breakers and Suburban ADA Paratransit

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 59

15. Pace: Day of Week Analysis

A day of week analysis was undertaken to examine whether Free Seniors and Circuit Breakers are riding Pace differently on weekdays and weekends and holidays after the Seniors Ride Free and Circuit Breaker programs started. The analysis covers the period from January 2007 to May 2009. Additional information about the travel behavior of Free Seniors emerges from the analysis of the users survey in Chapter 2. However, information available from the Regional Transportation Asset Management System (RTAMS) as well as other monthly reports from Pace can be used to obtain overall patterns. Note that time of day information was not available.

A comparison between seniors riding free, Circuit Breakers and all riders is shown in Table 19 and Table 20 and Figure 30, Figure 31 and Figure 32. Seniors riding free and Circuit Breakers ride Pace mostly on weekdays, as do all Pace riders. However, in a typical week, the average weekday ridership is slightly lower for Free Seniors (85.9% on average) and Circuit Breakers (86.0% on average) compared to the total ridership (88.1% on average). The reverse is happening on weekends / holidays; the average weekend / holiday percentage ridership for Free Seniors (10% and 4.1% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) and Circuit Breakers (9.9% and 4.1% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average) is slightly elevated compared to the total ridership (8% and 3.9% respectively for Saturday and Sunday/Holiday, on average).

Similarly as with the CTA and Metra systems, seniors and others have similar riding patterns on weekdays or weekends on the Pace system. This is surprising since few seniors work, as we will see later in the discussion of survey results.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 60

Table 19. Pace: Day of Week Ridership

Avg. Weekday (5 days) Avg. Saturday Avg. Sunday/Holiday Typical Week Month FS CB All FS CB All FS CB All FS CB All Jan.07 2,359,482 192,653 96,823 2,648,958 Feb.07 2,057,018 164,491 69,267 2,290,776 Mar.07 2,445,614 248,395 90,764 2,784,773 Apr.07 2,365,291 202,954 108,443 2,676,688 May.07 2,626,559 210,567 115,760 2,952,886 Jun.07 2,394,614 263,400 96,405 2,754,419 Jul.07 2,317,942 208,991 144,302 2,671,235 Aug.07 2,617,623 207,542 93,787 2,918,952 Sep.07 2,391,173 279,372 150,584 2,821,129 Oct.07 2,854,544 222,318 98,576 3,175,438 Nov.07 2,431,672 209,089 101,577 2,742,338 Dec.07 2,083,354 242,140 110,246 2,435,740 Jan.08 2,310,043 173,022 93,596 2,576,661 Feb.08 2,227,592 194,908 77,320 2,499,820 Mar.08 n/a 2,263,342 n/a 236,998 n/a 104,859 n/a 2,605,199 Apr.08 n/a 2,584,893 n/a 202,270 n/a 93,529 n/a 2,880,692 May.08 33,105 2,563,499 4,093 282,956 1,612 120,085 38,810 2,966,540 Jun.08 35,370 2,492,215 4,280 221,481 1,708 125,179 41,358 2,838,875 Jul.08 36,325 2,624,723 4,112 212,934 1,981 135,728 42,418 2,973,385 Aug.08 37,435 2,526,385 4,526 289,647 2,094 136,127 44,055 2,952,159 Sep.08 37,235 2,726,496 4,197 219,048 1,848 123,297 43,280 3,068,841 Oct.08 36,855 930 2,980,093 4,541 69 233,582 1,886 35 107,904 43,282 151,221 3,321,579 Nov.08 32,965 5,735 2,239,032 3,717 733 255,588 1,447 283 129,533 38,129 167,945 2,624,153 Dec.08 23,525 8,655 2,173,274 2,788 1,125 178,136 906 403 86,475 27,219 114,097 2,437,885 Jan.09 22,600 10,425 1,960,610 2,576 1,271 190,216 906 519 81,303 26,082 107,904 2,232,129 Feb.09 27,630 13,090 2,017,579 3,005 1,580 167,966 1,374 678 76,059 32,009 108,746 2,261,604 Mar.09 31,385 14,470 2,207,775 3,439 1,718 166,248 1,322 700 88,297 36,146 125,143 2,462,320 Apr.09 30,085 16,190 2,193,273 3,716 2,005 174,267 1,270 752 66,032 35,071 101,855 2,433,572 May.09 34,330 18,220 2,045,489 4,204 752 228,040 1,894 982 122,614 40,428 164,024 2,396,143 *FS – Free Seniors; CB – Circuit Breakers

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 61

Table 20. Pace: Percent of Typical Week Ridership

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers Month Avg. Weekday Avg. Sat. Avg. S/H Avg. Weekday Avg. Sat. Avg. S/H Avg. Weekday Avg. Sat. Avg. Sunday Jan.07 89.1% 7.3% 3.7% Feb.07 89.8% 7.2% 3.0% Mar.07 87.8% 8.9% 3.3% Apr.07 88.4% 7.6% 4.1% May.07 88.9% 7.1% 3.9% Jun.07 86.9% 9.6% 3.5% Jul.07 86.8% 7.8% 5.4% Aug.07 89.7% 7.1% 3.2% Sep.07 84.8% 9.9% 5.3% Oct.07 89.9% 7.0% 3.1% Nov.07 88.7% 7.6% 3.7% Dec.07 85.5% 9.9% 4.5% Jan.08 89.7% 6.7% 3.6% Feb.08 89.1% 7.8% 3.1% Mar.08 86.9% 9.1% 4.0% Apr.08 89.7% 7.0% 3.2% May.08 86.4% 9.5% 4.0% 85.3% 10.5% 4.2% Jun.08 87.8% 7.8% 4.4% 85.5% 10.3% 4.1% Jul.08 88.3% 7.2% 4.6% 85.6% 9.7% 4.7% Aug.08 85.6% 9.8% 4.6% 85.0% 10.3% 4.8% Sep.08 88.8% 7.1% 4.0% 86.0% 9.7% 4.3% Oct.08 89.7% 7.0% 3.2% 85.2% 10.5% 4.4% 89.9% 6.7% 3.4% Nov.08 85.3% 9.7% 4.9% 86.5% 9.7% 3.8% 85.0% 10.9% 4.2% Dec.08 89.1% 7.3% 3.5% 86.4% 10.2% 3.3% 85.0% 11.0% 4.0% Jan.09 87.8% 8.5% 3.6% 86.6% 9.9% 3.5% 85.3% 10.4% 4.2% Feb.09 89.2% 7.4% 3.4% 86.3% 9.4% 4.3% 85.3% 10.3% 4.4% Mar.09 89.7% 6.8% 3.6% 86.8% 9.5% 3.7% 85.7% 10.2% 4.1% Apr.09 90.1% 7.2% 2.7% 85.8% 10.6% 3.6% 85.4% 10.6% 4.0% May.09 85.4% 9.5% 5.1% 84.9% 10.4% 4.7% 91.3% 3.8% 4.9% Average 88.1% 8.0% 3.9% 85.8% 10.1% 4.1% 86.6% 9.2% 4.2%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 62

Figure 30. Pace Average Weekday: Percent ridership of typical week

12.0% 6.0%

10.0% 5.0%

8.0% 4.0%

6.0% 3.0%

4.0% 2.0%

2.0% 1.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Jul.07 Jul.08 Jan.07 Feb.07 Mar.07 Apr.07 May.07 Jun.07 Aug.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Aug.08 Sep.08 Oct.08 Nov.08 Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jul.07 Jul.08 Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07 Aug.07Sep.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08 Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec.08Jan.09Feb.09Mar.09Apr.09May.09

All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers All Riders Free Seniors Circuit Breakers

Figure 31. Pace Avg. Saturday: Percent ridership of typical week Figure 32. Pace Avg. Sunday/Holiday: Pct. ridership of typical week

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 63

16. Pace: Short-Term Ridership Impacts of the Free Ride Programs

The following examples illustrate the method about short-term ridership impacts as discussed earlier. Consider the reduced-fare senior ridership change for April 2007 and April 2008 (the first full month of the Seniors Ride Free program). The estimated April 2008 ridership as a percentage of total ridership was 2.6% lower than that in April 2007 (Table 21). In addition, in April 2008, Pace reported 139,908 SRF rides representing 4.9% of the total ridership (Table 21). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF program for April 2008 is the 4.9% - 2.6% = 2.3% gain in new free rides (Table 21).

The impact for other months is calculated similarly until September 2008. In October 2008 Pace reported, in addition to 195,245 SRF rides, 1,217 CB rides (Table 18) or a combined 196,462 free rides representing 6.1% of total ridership (Table 21). In the same month there was a diversion of seniors on reduced fare from a year ago amounting to 3.9% of ridership (Table 21). As a result, the short-term impact of the SRF and CB programs for October 2008 is 6.1% – 3.9% = 2.2% (Table 21). The impact for other months after October 2008 is calculated similarly.

The average percentage decrease in reduced-fare senior rides between April 2008 and March 2009 from a year ago was 3.6%. This is the estimated average diversion of senior rides previously on reduced-fare to SRF rides. During the same period the average percentage increase in free (SRF and CB) rides was 6.9%. Therefore, the average percentage gain in new riders was 6.9% - 3.6% = 3.3%.

Figure 33 shows the respective ridership results. The ridership of the first effect is shown as (darker blue) bars going downwards while the ridership impact of the second effect as (lighter blue) bars going upwards.

Overall, since the inception of the free ride programs for seniors and people with disabilities or Circuit Breaker, there has been a rapid increase in Pace free ridership due to the newness of the programs. According to our estimates, the programs have attracted on average 83,000 new rides per month compared to an average 97,000 senior rides per month on a reduced fare. This represents a 186% increase in free rides as a result of the two programs.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 64

Table 21. Pace: Free Rides and Reduced-Fare Rides Diversion

Reduced Fare Reduced Fare Difference of Monthly Rides Difference Rides Difference Free Rides and Free Rides* Free Rides (%) Difference from from 1 Year Ago Reduced Fare 1 Year Ago (%) Rides (%)

Apr-07-08 -44,393 2.6% 139,908 4.9% 2.2% May-07-08 -104,052 3.6% 167,568 5.8% 2.2% Jun-07-08 -92,206 3.4% 174,207 6.3% 2.9% Jul-07-08 -102,521 4.4% 186,180 6.5% 2.0% Aug-07-08 -94,511 3.4% 190,322 6.5% 3.1% Sep-07-08 -79,725 3.8% 182,410 6.1% 2.3% Oct-07-08 -112,245 3.9% 196,462 6.1% 2.2% Nov-07-08 -107,937 3.8% 178,577 6.9% 3.0% Dec-07-08 -111,684 4.5% 163,781 7.1% 2.6% Jan-08-09 -123,028 3.5% 165,418 7.9% 4.4% Feb-08-09 -112,271 3.6% 189,409 8.8% 5.2% Mar-08-09 -82,727 2.3% 232,640 10.0% 7.7% Apr-08-09 -101,119 1.8% 234,580 10.2% 8.4% May-08-09 -92,369 1.5% 259,683 11.1% 9.6% Jun-08-09 -57,677 0.9% 264,612 11.9% 11.0% Jul-08-09 -58,039 0.9% 252,674 11.3% 10.4% *Free Rides include Circuit Breaker Rides as of October 24th, 2008

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 07-08 08-09 08-09 08-09

Reduced Fare Rides Difference from 1 Year Ago Free Rides

Figure 33. Pace: Reduced Fare Rides Diversion and Free Rides

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 65

III. FINANCIAL IMPACTS OF THE RIDE FREE PROGRAMS

1. Short Term Financial Impact of the Ride Free Programs

Ideally, one would like to measure the financial implications of the SRF program by comparing two identical systems one with and one without such a program. Unfortunately, this was not practical to do. We also are unable to assess what would happen if the program were to be discontinued because it is an issue outside the scope of this study.

However, we can assess revenue loss to the RTA by estimating revenue if everyone currently riding free were to pay a fare. We will do so in the Section below entitled „A Survey Free Approach‟ for both SRF and PDRF programs.

There are several difficulties with such an approach. One is that it does not take into account additional rides seniors take because rides are now free. One way to incorporate this into our analysis is to compare the present with the situation before the program went into effect. This is not entirely fair since the impact of decreasing fares might not be negative [or the reciprocal of increasing fares]. Still that analysis is possible and is presented below in the Section „A Survey Based Approach‟ for the SRF program. An advantage of using information from the survey is that it enables incorporation of holders of Senior Ride Free cards or Reduced Fare cards who actually use them. A disadvantage of any survey based approach is just that – it is based on a survey with all attendant biases like non-response bias and recall bias. It should be borne in mind that certain types of statistics obtained from surveys are more reliable than others. Roughly speaking regression coefficients and certain ratios are more reliable than counts and averages.

a. A Survey Free Approach for the SRF and CB Programs

If everyone currently riding free were to pay a fare, a question arises as to what fare – full fare or a reduced fare. Using the two different fares – the average reduced-fare revenue on the low end and the full base fare on the high end – we can compute a range of revenue losses3. Since seniors (and Circuit Breakers) typically pay a reduced fare, one might conjecture that the actual revenue loss would be closer to lower end of the range.

Fare and ridership information was obtained from each service board. Table 22 shows the fare information for 2008 and 2009. Table 23 shows the ridership information for the time periods in 2008 and 2009 for each service board.

The 2009 annual revenue loss for the SRF program is estimated to be between $26.1 million and $76.8 million with a median4 value of $38.5 million (Table 24). In 2008 the revenue loss is estimated to be between $19.1 million and $51.2 million (Table 27).

3 Average full cash (reduced fare) fares were computed by the Service Boards by dividing the total number of rides paying full cash fare (reduced fare) into the total revenue collected. The weighted average reduced fare revenue per rides in Table 22 is based on actual usage as computed by each Service Board. 4 By median value, we mean the "middle" value between the maximum and minimum range of value.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 66

Similarly, the 2009 annual revenue loss for the PDRF program is estimated to be between $11.6 million and $39.4 million with a median value of $17.2 million (Table 25). In 2008 the revenue loss is estimated to be between $1.0 million and $3.0 million (Table 28).

The 2009 annual revenue loss for the combined SRF and PDRF programs is estimated to be between $37.7 million and $116.2 million with a median value of $55.6 million (Table 26). In 2008 the estimated revenue loss is estimated to be between $20.1 million and $54.2 million (Table 29).

This analysis does not consider the reduced fare reimbursement program.

Table 22. Service Board Fare Information Estimated Average Reduced Weighted Average Average Full Cash Service Board Fare Revenue per Calendar Year Reduced Fare Fare Ride Revenue per Ride CTA $0.64 $0.95 $2.25 2009 Metra $2.00 $2.95 $2.97 2009 Pace $0.67 $0.91 $1.75 2009

CTA $0.64 $2.00 2008  Metra $1.96  $2.95 2008 Pace $0.67  $1.42* 2008 * weighted average of the Pace regular and local fare

Table 23. Seniors Ride Free (SRF) and Circuit Breaker (CB) Ridership SRF CB SRF + CB SRF CB SRF + CB October 2008 March 2008 to January 2009 January 2009 January 2009 March 2008 to to December December to December to December to December December 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 CTA 21,060,385 1,455,031 22,515,416 28,212,980 16,451,791 44,664,771 Metra 2,310,599 2,431 2,313,030 3,369,460 213,300 3,582,760 Pace 1,558,462 71,865 1,630,327 1,895,283 982,391 2,877,674 Total Service 24,929,446 1,529,327 26,458,773 33,477,723 17,647,482 51,125,205 Boards

Table 24. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program January through December 2009 Average Estimated Service Board Reduced Fare Weighted Average Full Cash Fare Revenue Fare Revenue CTA $18,084,520 $26,817,744 $63,479,205 Metra $6,738,920 $9,939,907 $10,007,296 Pace $1,269,840 $1,725,566 $3,316,745 RTA Total $26,093,280 $38,483,217 $76,803,246

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 67

Table 25. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Circuit Breaker Program January Through December 2009

Average Estimated Service Board Reduced Fare Weighted Average Full Cash Fare Revenue Fare Revenue Average CTA $10,545,598 $15,638,189 $37,016,530 Revenue Metra $426,600 $629,235 $633,501 Pace $658,202 $894,421 $1,719,184 RTA Total $11,630,400 $17,161,845 $39,369,215

Table 26. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from SRF and CB Programs January through December 2009

Average Estimated Service Board Reduced Fare Weighted Average Full Cash Fare Revenue Fare Revenue Average CTA $28,630,118 $42,455,933 $100,495,735 Revenue Metra $7,165,520 $10,569,142 $10,640,797 Pace $1,928,042 $2,619,987 $5,035,930 RTA Total $37,723,680 $55,645,062 $116,172,461

Table 27. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program March through December 2008

Average Service Board Reduced Fare Full Cash Fare Revenue Average CTA $13,499,707 $42,120,770 Revenue Metra $4,528,774 $6,816,267 Pace $1,044,170 $2,213,016 RTA Total $19,072,650 $51,150,053

Table 28. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Circuit Breaker Program October through December 2008

Average Service Board Reduced Fare Full Cash Fare Revenue Average CTA $932,675 $2,910,062 Revenue Metra $4,765 $7,171 Pace $48,150 $102,048 RTA Total $985,589 $3,019,282

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 68

Table 29. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from SRF and CB Programs March through December 2008

Average Service Board Reduced Fare Full Cash Fare Revenue Average CTA $14,432,382 $45,030,832 Revenue Metra $4,533,539 $6,823,439 Pace $1,092,319 $2,315,064 RTA Total $20,058,240 $54,169,335

b. Survey-Based Revenue Loss Estimation of the SRF Program

1. Preliminaries

The following discussion presents two methods for estimating the revenue loss of the SRF program based on the survey of SRF cardholders. Both methods provide a means to estimate the revenue loss a week before and after the SRF Program started.

2. Deflation Difference Method: Assumptions and Data Used

The method computes the difference in revenue generated by riders between a typical week before (in 2008) and after the SRF program started (in 2009). The method makes several assumptions as follows:

 Considering that the survey was mailed out in the second week of June 2009, the „after‟ period was the week prior to receiving the instrument, that is, a week in the first half of June 2009. The „before‟ period is thought to be a typical week in 2008 before March 17, 2008, the start of the SRF program.  It is generally understood that shorter time frames for recalling events and experiences produces more valid information5. Our experience with the survey of seniors seems to corroborate this observation. As a result, survey-based analysis is as reliable as the recall ability of the seniors responded.  The number of rides in the „before‟ period was estimated as the difference between the number of rides in the „after‟ period and the additional number of rides seniors reported taking since the SRF program started.  Qualitative information from survey responses regarding frequency of card use was quantified as follows: „None of the time‟ – Riders used their card 0% of the time; „About a quarter of the time‟ – Riders used their card 25% of the time; „About half the time‟ – Riders used their card 50% of the time; „More than half the time‟ – Riders used their card

5 Stone, AA, Turkkan, JS, Bachrach, CA, Jobe, JB, Kurtzman, HS and Cain, VS. (2000) The Science of Self-Report: Implications for Research and Practice. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 69

75% of the time; and „All the time‟ – Riders used their card 100% of the time. Actual usage of RF and SRF cards was not available.

All but the fare information was obtained from the survey of SRF cardholders. The fare information was made available by each service board and is the same information used in other survey-free approaches discussed earlier in this chapter.

3. Deflation Ratio Method: Assumptions and Data Used

This approach produces service board specific revenue losses that can be attributed to the differential use of senior reduced fare (RF) a typical week before and SRF cards a typical week after the SRF program started. The following assumptions are made:

 Considering that the survey was mailed out in the second week of June 2009, the „after‟ period was the week prior to receiving the instrument, that is, a week in the first half of June 2009. The „before‟ period is thought to be a typical week in 2008 before March 17, 2008, the start of the SRF program.  It is generally understood that shorter time frames for recalling events and experiences produces more valid information. Our experience with the survey of seniors seems to corroborate this observation. As a result, survey-based analysis is as reliable as the recall ability of the seniors responded.  The number of rides in the „before‟ period was estimated as the difference between the number of rides in the „after‟ period and the additional number of rides seniors reported taking since the SRF program started. This impacts the computation of the SRF ridership deflation factors; whenever the number of additional rides reported is more than the number of rides in the „after‟ period (because of recall issues) the SRF ridership is set equal to the RF ridership.  The SRF ridership in each category of card use would logically be larger than the RF ridership given that the SRF Program has attracted additional rides.  Qualitative information from survey responses regarding frequency of card use was quantified as follows: „None of the time‟ – Riders used their card 0% of the time; „About a quarter of the time‟ – Riders used their card 25% of the time; „About half the time‟ – Riders used their card 50% of the time; „More than half the time‟ – Riders used their card 75% of the time; and „All the time‟ – Riders used their card 100% of the time. Actual usage of RF and SRF cards was not available.

Information about the relative frequency of RF and SRF cards use was obtained from the survey of SRF cardholders. The fare information was made available by each service board and is the same information used in other survey-free approaches discussed earlier in this chapter. Ridership information for each service board was computed from: (a) ridership tables in Chapter 1 obtained for each service board (a survey-based increase of this ridership is used) for one of the scenarios, and (b) from the survey for the other scenario.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 70

4. Results

Table 30 summarizes revenue loss estimates of the SRF program for each service board using the two survey based approaches. Three different scenarios are explored: (a) one scenario for the deflation difference method using ridership as reported in the survey of SRF users, and (b) two scenarios for the deflation ratio method: the first scenario uses ridership information from the survey as before; the second scenario uses actual SRF ridership from each service board (as reported in ridership tables in Chapter 1) increased by a portion of ridership of users without a reduced-fare card from the survey. Based on these three scenarios the 2009 RTA annual loss is estimated to be between $23.8 million and $34.9 million. More details about these numbers are given in the discussion of the survey-based approaches later in this chapter.

Table 30. Annual Revenue Loss for Survey-Based Methods Using Actual SRF

Ridership Using Using Increased by Survey SRF Survey SRF Survey-Based Ridership Ridership Ridership Service Board Without SRF Deflation Deflation Card Difference Ratio

Method Method Deflation

Ratio Method CTA $30,794,970 $26,880,499 $19,514,959 Metra $1,612,289 $6,589,925 $3,540,708 Pace $1,944,686 $1,466,571 $694,337 RTA Total $34,351,945 $34,936,995 $23,750,005

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 71

5. Deflation Difference Method

The method consists of comparing a typical week worth of transit rides before and after the SRF program started. The difference in the corresponding fare revenue between the two time periods yields an estimate of the revenue loss. The mathematical depiction of the method is shown in Appendix 1 at the end of this chapter.

Let‟s consider the information in Table 31 obtained from the following questions in the survey instrument:

 Question 2c: What is the total number of all local rides you took the week before you received this questionnaire on CTA Bus, CTA Rail, Metra and Pace?

 Question 3: How often did you use your Seniors Ride Free Fare card for local transit rides you took the week before you received this questionnaire?

Table 31. Weekly Transit Rides by SRF Card Frequency of Use After the SRF Program Started None of the About a quarter About half the More than half Service Board All the time Total Rides time of the time time the time CTA Bus & Rail 43,016 107,590 60,149 65,523 705,445 981,723 Metra 19,355 39,911 19,453 16,415 142,941 238,076 Pace 6,259 16,715 15,984 9,652 90,050 138,660

A cross-tabulation of Questions 2c and 3 results in Table 32 that categorizes the transit rides taken by seniors after the SRF program started by frequency of use of the SRF card. In Table 31 each respondent was „weighted‟ by the number of rides he/she took from Question 2c.

Consider now the information in Table 32 obtained from Question 9 “How many of the increased transit rides you mentioned in Question 56 did you take on CTA, Metra, Pace?” Again, each respondent was „weighted‟ by the number of rides he/she took from Question 2c.

Table 32. Weekly Additional Transit Rides by SRF Card Frequency of Use After the SRF Program Started None of the About a quarter About half the More than half Service Board All the time Total Rides time of the time time the time CTA Bus & Rail 15,005 19,669 22,190 24,078 212,689 293,631 Metra 20,189 22,562 17,117 9,185 55,641 124,694 Pace 3,048 2,154 7,054 6,326 32,346 50,928

6 Question 5 asked: “About how many more rides on transit do you take in a typical week now compared to the number of rides you took on transit before the Seniors Ride Free program went into effect on March 17th, 2008?”

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 72

Table 32 tallies up the weekly additional transit rides (weighted as in Table 31) taken after the SRF program started by frequency of use of the SRF card as reported by senior SRF cardholders. The differences between the total number of rides in Table 31 and Table 32 would give an estimate of the transit rides taken before the SRF program started. This is presented in Table 33.

Table 33. Estimated Weekly Transit Rides by RF Card Frequency of Use Before the SRF Program Started None of the About a quarter About half the More than half Service Board All the time Total Rides time of the time time the time CTA Bus & Rail 3,121 47,116 33,023 28,970 351,087 463,317 Metra 2,996 598 3,869 8,212 70,407 86,081 Pace 4,543 7,490 5,397 1,236 45,323 63,989

It is clear from the above that we can directly estimate the number of weekly transit rides in the „after‟ period, but only indirectly in the „before‟ period. This is because the survey did not ask about the number of rides in the „before‟ period because of recall issues. For the same reason the increase in rides reported may also be suspect.

RF and SRF card frequency of use in the „before‟ period‟ (Table 33) and „after‟ period‟ (Table 31), respectively, can be used to determine estimates of the percentages of full fare paid (Table 34) under the following assumptions:

 Riders using a RF or SRF card „None of the time‟ would pay the full fare all the time.

 Riders using a SRF card „About a quarter of the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 75% of the time and ride free (about) 25% of the time.

 Riders using a RF card „About a quarter of the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 75% of the time and half fare (about) 25% of the time; this is equivalent to paying the full fare (about) 87.5% of the time.

 Riders using a SRF card „About half the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 50% of the time and ride free (about) 50% of the time.

 Riders using a RF card „About half the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 50% of the time and half fare (about) 50% of the time; this is equivalent to paying the full fare (about) 75% of the time.

 Riders using a SRF card „More than half the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 25% of the time and ride free (about) 75% of the time.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 73

 Riders using an RF card „More than half the time‟ would pay the full fare (about) 25% of the time and half fare (about) 75% of the time; this is equivalent to paying the full fare (about) 62.5% of the time.

 Riders using a SRF card „All the time‟ would pay the full fare none of the time (ride free all the time).

 Riders using a RF card „All the time‟ would pay the half fare all the time; this is equivalent to paying the full fare 50% none of the time.

Table 34. Percent of Full fare Paid for Different RF and SRF Card Frequency of Use Card About a More than None of the About half Frequency quarter of half the All the time time the time of Use the time time SRF Card 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% RF Card 100% 87.5% 75% 62.5% 50%

Using the card utilization rates in Table 34, ridership estimates from Table 31 (for the „after‟ period) and Table 33 (for the „before‟ period), and fare information (Table 35), we are now ready to calculate revenue estimates (for a typical week) before and after the SRF program started. The additional assumption needed here is that 2008 fares and RF utilization rates would apply to weekly ridership estimates before the SRF program started; moreover, 2009 fares and SRF utilization rates would apply to weekly ridership estimates after the SRF program started. Note that the fare information was obtained from each service board and is the same one used in the survey-free approaches earlier in this chapter.

Table 35. Full Fare Information

Service Average Full Cash Fare Board 2008 2009 CTA $2.00 $2.25 Metra $2.95 $2.97 Pace $1.42 $1.75

The weekly revenue estimates for a typical week after the SRF program started in 2009 for riders using a SRF card are shown in Table 36.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 74

Table 36. Revenue Estimates for a Typical Week After the SRF Program Started for Riders with a SRF Card None of the About a quarter About half the More than half Service Board All the time Total Revenue time of the time time the time CTA Bus & Rail $96,785 $181,558 $67,668 $36,857 $0 $382,868 Metra $57,484 $88,902 $28,888 $12,188 $0 $187,462 Pace $10,953 $21,938 $13,986 $4,223 $0 $51,100

The weekly revenue estimates for a typical week before the SRF program started for riders using a RF card are shown in Table 37.

Table 37. Revenue Estimates for a Typical Week Before the SRF Program Started for Riders with a RF Card None of the About a quarter About half the More than half Service Board All the time Total Revenue time of the time time the time CTA Bus & Rail $6,241 $82,454 $49,535 $36,212 $351,087 $525,529 Metra $8,837 $1,543 $8,559 $15,141 $103,851 $137,931 Pace $6,451 $9,306 $5,747 $1,097 $32,180 $54,781

To determine the total revenue for a typical week before the SRF program started we would need to add to Table 37 the revenue from riders who did not have a RF card (Table 38) and, therefore, would have to pay a full fare. Recall these rides can only be indirectly estimated in a similar manner with the rides „before‟.

Table 38. Revenue Estimates for a Typical Week Before the SRF Program Started for Riders without a RF Card

Service Board Estimated Rides Total Revenue CTA Bus & Rail 224,775 $449,550 Metra 27,301 $80,536 Pace 23,744 $33,717

Adding the revenue for RF and non-RF cardholders we obtain the total revenue for a typical week before the SRF program started in Table 39.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 75

Table 39. Total Revenue Estimates for a Typical Week Before the SRF Program Started

Service Board Total Revenue CTA Bus & Rail $975,079 Metra $218,468 Pace $88,498

The difference between the total revenue for a typical week before (Table 39) and after the SRF program started (Table 36) would give an estimate of the total weekly revenue loss of the SRF program for each service board (Table 40). Multiplying by 52 weeks we obtain an estimate of the total annual revenue loss (Table 40).

Table 40. Deflation Difference Method: Total Revenue Loss Estimates of the SRF Program

Service Board Weekly Annually CTA Bus & Rail $592,211 $30,794,970 Metra $31,006 $1,612,289 Pace $37,398 $1,944,686 RTA Total $660,615 $34,351,945

Revenue loss estimates from the different methods thus far are shown in Table 41. The second column gives the estimate for the deflation difference method just described. The last three columns are the estimates of the survey-free approaches discussed earlier in this chapter. Recall that the survey-free approaches examined the revenue loss impacts under three scenarios: (a) SRF riders who used to pay full fare before the program started; (b) SRF riders who used to pay reduced fare before the program started; and (c) SRF riders who used to pay sometimes full fare and sometimes reduced fare before the program started.

The (deflation difference method) revenue loss estimate for the CTA of $30.8 million appears to be below the middle of the range $18.1 million and $63.5 million estimated by survey-free methods (Table 41). The respective estimate for Pace of $1.9 million appears to be also below the middle of the range of $1.3 million and $3.3 million in Table 41. The estimate for Metra of $1.6 million appears to be quite lower than in other non-survey-based approaches in Table 41.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 76

Table 41. Estimated Short-Term Revenue Loss of SRF Program Using the Deflation Difference Method and Other Survey-Free Approaches

Using Using Using Survey SRF Actual SRF Actual SRF Using Ridership Ridership Ridership Actual SRF Service Board Ridership Deflation Estimated Average Difference Weighted Reduced Fare Average Full Method Average Fare Revenue Cash Fare Revenue

CTA $30,794,970 $18,084,520 $63,479,205 $26,817,744 Metra $1,612,289 $6,738,920 $10,007,296 $9,939,907 Pace $1,944,686 $1,269,840 $3,316,745 $1,725,566 RTA Total $34,351,945 $26,093,280 $76,803,246 $38,483,217

6. Deflation Ratio Method

A second method that is also based on the survey of SRF cardholders is now discussed. This approach produces service board specific revenue losses that can be attributed to the differential weekly use of senior reduced fare (RF) and SRF cards, respectively, before and after the SRF started. The mathematical depiction of the method is shown in Appendix 1 at the end of this chapter.

Consider the frequency of use of RF and SRF cards for CTA in Table 42. The top portion of Table 42 includes 65.23 percent of rides taken using a RF card prior to the SRF program and a SRF card after the program started (by 54.63 percent of seniors). This results from a cross- tabulation of Question 13 “How often did you use your Reduced Fare card?” and Question 3 “How often did you use your Seniors Ride Free Fare card for local transit rides you took the week before you received this questionnaire?” In Table 42 each respondent was „weighted‟ by the number of rides he/she took from Question 2c7.

The bottom portion of Table 42 includes the remainder 34.77 percent of rides taken using a SRF card by the remaining 45.37 percent of seniors who did not have a RF card prior to the SRF program. This results from a cross tabulation of Question 12 “Before you obtained a Senior Ride Free card, did you have a RTA Reduced Fare card?” and Question 3.

7 Question 2c asked: “·What is the total number of all local rides you took the week before you received this questionnaire on CTA Bus, CTA Rail, Metra and Pace?”

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 77

Table 42. Frequency of Use of RF and SRF Cards for CTA Rides

Used Reduced Fare Card Used SRF Card in Previous Week Before SRF Program About a Total Started None of the About half More than quarter All the time time the time half the time of the time None of the time 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 0.52% About a quarter of the time 0.24% 2.86% 0.39% 0.07% 1.98% 5.55% About half the time 0.17% 0.80% 1.80% 0.48% 1.75% 5.00% More than half the time 0.00% 0.56% 0.69% 2.13% 2.42% 5.80% All the time 0.50% 1.62% 0.90% 1.60% 43.74% 48.36%

Total Use of SRF Card for 1.11% 5.86% 3.78% 4.29% 50.19% 65.23% Prior RF Cardholders

Did Not Have Reduced Fare Card Before SRF Program 3.27% 5.10% 2.35% 2.39% 21.67% 34.77% Started

Total Use of SRF Card 4.38% 10.96% 6.13% 6.67% 71.86% 100.00%

Similarly, Table 43 and Table 44 show the frequency of RF and SRF card use for Metra and Pace, respectively. Table 43. Frequency of Use of RF and SRF Cards for Metra Rides

Used Reduced Fare Card Used SRF Card in Previous Week Before SRF Program About a Total Started None of the About half More than quarter All the time time the time half the time of the time None of the time 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 0.63% About a quarter of the time 0.33% 2.64% 1.68% 0.83% 1.70% 7.19% About half the time 0.00% 0.61% 0.57% 0.30% 0.30% 1.77% More than half the time 0.17% 1.49% 0.15% 3.75% 1.38% 6.93% All the time 2.98% 2.00% 0.46% 1.21% 36.45% 43.10%

Total Use of SRF Card for 3.69% 6.74% 2.86% 6.09% 40.24% 59.61% Prior RF Cardholders

Did Not Have Reduced Fare Card Before SRF Program 4.44% 10.03% 5.31% 0.81% 19.80% 40.39% Started

Total Use of SRF Card 8.13% 16.76% 8.17% 6.89% 60.04% 100.00%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 78

Table 44. Frequency of Use of RF and SRF Cards for Pace Rides

Used Reduced Fare Card Used SRF Card in Previous Week Before SRF Program About a Total Started None of the About half More than quarter All the time time the time half the time of the time None of the time 0.82% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 1.08% About a quarter of the time 0.00% 3.86% 2.03% 0.00% 2.14% 8.02% About half the time 0.39% 1.44% 1.73% 0.25% 1.01% 4.83% More than half the time 0.00% 0.42% 0.93% 1.43% 0.00% 2.78% All the time 2.87% 0.82% 1.84% 2.35% 42.03% 49.91%

Total Use of SRF Card for 4.09% 6.54% 6.52% 4.03% 45.43% 66.61% Prior RF Cardholders

Did Not Have Reduced Fare Card Before SRF Program 0.43% 5.51% 5.00% 2.93% 19.51% 33.39% Started

Total Use of SRF Card 4.51% 12.05% 11.53% 6.96% 64.94% 100.00%

Let‟s return to Table 42 to examine how this information from the survey can be used to study revenue implications for CTA. The following examples will facilitate the discussion.

6.1 Examples

Consider the first entry in the first row of Table 42.

 0.2% of the rides were taken by seniors who had but did not use a reduced fare card or a SRF card. Therefore, the weekly revenue loss for this category is:

0.2%  [100%  (full fare)  (weekly RF ridership) – 100%  (full fare)  (weekly SRF ridership)] = [0.2%  (full fare)  (100%  (weekly RF ridership)] – [100%  (weekly SRF ridership)] = 0.2%  [(deflation factor)  100% – 100%]  (weekly SRF ridership)  (full fare)

Consider now the second entry in the first row of Table 42.

 0.02% of the rides were taken by seniors who had but did not use a reduced fare card, and use a SRF card (approximately8) 25% of the time. Therefore, the weekly revenue loss for this category is:

8 Without knowing the exact riding behavior of seniors (for example, by comparing the reduced-fare and SRF card use of same riders before and after the SRF program started) we could not give specific values to qualitative responses such as „more than half the time‟.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 79

0.02%  [100%  (full fare)  (weekly RF ridership) – 75%  (full fare)  (weekly SRF ridership)] = 0.02%  (full fare)  [(100%  (weekly RF ridership) – 75%  (weekly SRF ridership)] = 0.02%  [(deflation factor)  100% – 75%]  (weekly SRF ridership)  (full fare)

Finally, consider now the first entry in the second row of Table 42:

 0.24% of the rides were taken by seniors who used a reduced fare card (approximately) 25% of the time and never use a SRF card. Therefore, the weekly revenue loss for this category is:

0.24%  {[(25%  (half fare) + (75%  (full fare)]  (weekly RF ridership) – [100%  (full fare)  (weekly SRF ridership)]}= 0.24%  (full fare)  [(87.5%  (weekly RF ridership) – (100%  2009 SRF ridership)] = 0.02%  [(deflation factor)  87.5% – 100%]  (weekly SRF ridership)  (full fare)

6.2 Information Needed for Revenue Loss Estimation

To estimate the short-range revenue implications of the SRF Program for CTA we would need additional information to that included in Table 42 (the pij ‟s in Appendix 1). The portions of the full fare for RF and SRF cards are shown in Table 45.

Table 45. Percent of Full fare Paid for Different RF and SRF Card Frequency of Use Card About a More than None of the About half Frequency quarter of half the All the time time the time of Use the time time SRF Card 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% RF Card 100% 87.5% 75% 62.5% 50%

SRF ridership and fares are shown in Table 46. Note in Table 46 the ridership information was developed in three different ways. The first one uses a weekly average from actual (monthly) counts of SRF rides by the Service Boards. This ridership was deemed too low to produce reasonable results using the deflation ratio method. The second one uses the service boards ridership increased by a survey-based estimate to account for senior rides that are not taken with a SRF card and therefore would not be recorded as SRF ridership9. The third ridership in Table 46 is based on the survey.

9 Based on survey results, it is estimated that SRF cardholders rode CTA without using their card 17.3% of the time. The percentages for Metra and Pace are 26.5% and 21.1%, respectively.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 80

Table 46. Weekly SRF Ridership and Fares Actual SRF Survey Average Full Cash Fare Service Ridership Actual SRF Based SRF Board Increased by Ridership Ridership 2008 2009 Non-SRF CTA 542,557 712,721 981,723 $2.00 $2.25 Metra 64,797 127,916 238,076 $2.95 $2.97 Pace 36,448 65,648 138,660 $1.42 $1.75

6.3 Deflation Factors

Initially, the method would need total RF and SRF ridership for each service board. There are two difficulties with this: (a) we can only estimate the RF ridership indirectly from the survey as the difference between SRF rides and additional rides; and (b) even if we could obtain a reliable RF ridership that estimate could only be a „total‟ ridership and not specific to each category of RF and SRF card use.

To remedy these issues we defined „deflation‟ factors for each category of RF and SRF card use to be the ratio of the SRF and (indirectly computed) RF ridership for this category. The SRF ridership by category results from a cross-tabulation of Question 13 (Question 12 for non-RF cardholders) and Question 3 using as weights the number of rides from Question 2c. The RF ridership by category requires the number of additional rides that is obtained by a cross- tabulation of Questions 13 (Question 12 for non-RF cardholders) and 3 using as weights the number of rides from Question 9 “How many of the increased transit rides you mentioned in Question 510 did you take on CTA, Metra, Pace?”

The assumption here is that the SRF ridership in each category would logically be larger than the RF ridership given that the SRF Program has attracted additional rides. This appears to be the case except for a few categories (for each service board) that either have no responses or show inconsistent reporting by seniors (e.g., more additional rides than SRF rides) because of recall issues. Those categories receive a deflation factor equal to one to indicate an assumed no ridership change in the „before‟ and „after‟ periods.

6.4 Total Revenue Loss Estimation Results

All the information necessary for the computations is now available. Table 47 shows the results from the deflation ratio method in comparison with results from other survey-based and survey- free approaches discussed earlier. If there is an advantage of using the deflation ratio method vis-à-vis the deflation difference method is that it allows to experiment with total SRF ridership from different sources. The results in Table 47 use two different such sources: (a) using survey SRF ridership similar to the deflation difference method; and (b) using actual SRF ridership (from each service board as presented in the ridership tables in Chapter 1) increased by a survey-

10 Question 5 asked: “About how many more rides on transit do you take in a typical week now compared to the number of rides you took on transit before the Seniors Ride Free program went into effect on March 17th, 2008?”

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 81 based estimate of rides taken by seniors without their SRF card (these rides would not be recorded separately as senior rides).

The proximity in the results between the deflation difference method and deflation ratio method is expected. Metra is markedly higher in the deflation ratio method because recall issues with survey respondents impact the deflation factors more than the deflation difference method (generally speaking, ratios magnify results more than differences). Indeed seniors in seven out of twenty five categories of frequency of SRF and RF card use for Metra reported having made more additional rides than total rides (and that would have given the deflation factor a value of greater than one). Note that only one such category for Pace and none for CTA exhibits the same phenomenon. As a result, in those categories the deflation factor has been set equal to one.

An additional issue with the deflation ratio method is that a few of the categories above are absent: three for CTA, four for Metra, and seven for Pace. In those cases the deflation factor has also been set equal to one, since time constraints prohibited a thorough missing value analysis.

Table 47. Estimated Short-Term Revenue Loss of SRF Program Using Survey-Based and Survey-Free Approaches Using

Actual SRF

Ridership Using Using Increased by Using Survey SRF Survey SRF Using Survey-Based Using Actual SRF Ridership Ridership Actual SRF Ridership Actual SRF Ridership Service Board Ridership Without SRF Ridership Deflation Deflation Card Estimated Difference Ratio Average Average Full Weighted Method Method Reduced Fare Deflation Cash Fare Average Fare Revenue Ratio Revenue

Method CTA $30,794,970 $26,880,499 $19,514,959 $18,084,520 $63,479,205 $26,817,744 Metra $1,612,289 $6,589,925 $3,540,708 $6,738,920 $10,007,296 $9,939,907 Pace $1,944,686 $1,466,571 $694,337 $1,269,840 $3,316,745 $1,725,566 RTA Total $34,351,945 $34,936,995 $23,750,005 $26,093,280 $76,803,246 $38,483,217

Table 48 shows a range of annual revenue loss estimates based on results from all (survey-free and survey-based) approaches described in this chapter. The annual loss for the RTA system is estimated to be between $23.8 million and $76.8 million with a median value11 of $34.6 million.

11 By median values, we mean the „middle‟ values between the maximum and minimum range of values. In Table 47 there are six values for each service board and the RTA. These values are then ordered from lowest to highest. There are two „middle‟ values. The average of these two „middle‟ values is the median value for each service board and the RTA.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 82

Table 48. Range of Estimated Annual Revenue Losses

Service Board Low Median High CTA $18,084,520 $26,849,122 $63,479,205 Metra $1,612,289 $6,664,423 $10,007,296 Pace $694,337 $1,596,069 $3,316,745 RTA Total $23,750,005 $34,644,470 $76,803,246

The magnitude of the short-term financial loss for the SRF program raises questions about the financially sustainability of the program, especially considering the demographic projections of the regional senior population. This will become more obvious in Chapter 3.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 83

APPENDIX 1: TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE TWO SURVEY BASED METHODS

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 84

Deflation Difference Method

The revenue loss for each service board per week is the difference between the revenue generated by RF riders in a typical week in 2008 prior to the SRF program started (the „before‟ period‟) and the revenue generated by SRF riders in the week prior to the survey in June 2009 (the „after‟ period). The discussion below provides the mathematical expressions for the necessary computations.

12 Let i and j index, respectively, the frequency of RF and SRF cards use . Let xij be the number of rides in each of the (i, j) categories taken by SRF cardholders in the „after‟ period who also had an RF card in the „before‟ period. The total number of rides for this group at each level of

SRF card use j is xx j  ij . Similarly, the total number of rides at each level of SRF card use j i for RF cardholders who now use a SRF card is xxi   ij . j

In the „after‟ period there were also a number of rides taken by SRF cardholders who did not have an RF card in the „before‟ period. Let‟s call the number of rides at each level of SRF card (no RF) use j for this group x j . Clearly, the total number of rides taken in the „after‟ period is (no RF) (no RF) x x j  x  j   x i   x  j . j i j

Let zij be the number of additional (compared to before the SRF program started) rides in each of the (i, j) categories taken by SRF cardholders in the „after‟ period who also had an RF card in the „before‟ period. The total number of rides for this group at each level of SRF card use j is zz j  ij . Similarly, the total number of additional rides at each level of SRF card use j for i

RF cardholders who now use a SRF card is zzi   ij . j

In the „after‟ period there were also a number of additional rides taken by SRF cardholders who did not have an RF card in the „before‟ period. Let‟s call the number of rides at each level of (no RF) SRF card use j for this group z j . Clearly, the total number of additional rides taken in the (no RF) (no RF) „after‟ period is z z j  z  j   z i   z  j . j i j

An estimate of the number of rides in the „before‟ period can be obtained by taking the difference of ‟s and ‟s. More specifically, the total number of rides taken by RF cardholders at each level of RF card use j in the „before‟ period is yi x i  z i  .

12 „None of the time‟ (0%), „About a quarter of the time‟ (25%), „About half the time‟ (50%), „More than half the time‟ (75%), „All the time‟ (100%)

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 85

In the „before‟ period, there were also a number of rides taken by seniors who did not have an RF card. Note that these rides would not appear separately in service boards ridership (reduced-fare or SRF) counts. An estimate of the total number of rides taken by seniors who did not have an (no RF) (no RF) (no RF) RF card in the „before‟ period is y x jj z  . j

Let ui and v j be the portion of full fare for a particular level of RF card use i, and SRF card use * * j, respectively. Let uuii(2008 fare) and vvjj(2009 fare) be, respectively, the quantities and after absorbing fare information in the „before‟ and „after‟ periods.

In the discussion of the methodology the terms „ridership‟ and „fare‟ are generic. The computation is done for each service board with specific ridership and fare profiles. Let‟s now discuss the revenue generated in the „before‟ and „after‟ periods.

Following the discussion above, the total revenue per week generated by SRF riders in the „after‟ (after) (no RF) * period is R xj x j v j . Similarly, the total revenue per week generated by RF j (before) * (no RF) riders in the „before‟ period is R yii u  y   (2008 fare) . Clearly seniors in the i „before‟ period without an RF card would be paying the full 2008 fare. The total revenue loss per week for each service board is then simply R=R(before) R (after) .

Deflation Ratio Method

The method operates on the entire table of SRF rides taken by seniors with and without a prior RF card in the previous section, not just at the margins. If this were the only difference the two methods would give identical results. The additional difference is that the „before‟ period ridership (obtained by taking the difference between SRF rides and additional SRF rides) is not used directly into the revenue loss calculation; it is rather used to compute „deflation‟ factors of the SRF ridership as explained below.

yij Let dij  , the ratio of SRF ridership or xij and RF ridership or yij , be the deflation factor of xij SRF ridership for a particular (i, j) category of RF and SRF card use. Recall that the weekly RF ridership can only be indirectly estimated as the difference between weekly SRF ridership and the additional number of rides in that same week. As a result, whenever the number of additional rides reported is greater than SRF ridership because of recall issues, the deflation factor is set equal to one. The deflation factor is also set equal to one in cases where particular (i,j) categories are absent13.

13 Time constraints did not permit a through missing value analysis that, potentially, would have rendered more reliable values.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 86

xij Let also pij  be the percent of total SRF rides, xx   ij , in each (i, j) category. x ij Following the notation in the previous section, the total revenue loss per week (for each service board) is:

R=R(before) R (after) ** yij u i x ij v j ij ** dij x ij u i x ij v j ij ** dij p ij x u i p ij x  v j ij **  pij d ij u i v j  x ij None of the time, About a quarter of the time, About half the time, i , More than half the time, All the time, No RF Card Before SRF Program None of the time, About a quarter of the time, j  About half the time, More than half the time, All the time where,  1 if  xxij 0 or ij < y ij  dij  1, otherwise

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 87

CHAPTER 2

TASK II – RTA SENIORS USERS SURVEY

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 88

I. RECENT STUDIES IN THE CHICAGO METRO REGION

There have been two recent surveys of senior citizen transit users in the Chicago area undertaken by IDOT and Pace. First, a mail-out mail-back survey of 280 senior citizens aged 65 and older regarding transportation habits and attitudes in the six-county Chicago Metropolitan area was undertaken in 2007 by the University of Illinois at Chicago Transportation Research Lab as an Illinois Department of Transportation Department (IDOT) Illinois Center for Transportation (ICT) project (Mohammadian et al., 2009). Below is a description of major fare-related findings.

1. IDOT Survey

 78.2 % of senior citizens are retired, that is, not working. Those working represent 21.8 % of seniors; 12.9 % working part time and 8.9 % working full time.  The majority of senior citizen trips are for non-work purposes. Shopping, medical and social trips exceeded work trips.  The majority of the work trips occur in the morning peak, but many of the non-work trips also occur during peak periods although not to the extent of work trips.  83.5 % of seniors use reduced fare instruments.  The level of transit fares is not an important factor to senior citizen users. The twelve most common reasons for not using transit did not include cost of service. Also, when seniors were questioned to name proposed improvements, only 13 % suggested reduced fares.  Cost of parking was a major consideration in making or not making the auto mode choice.

2. Pace Survey

A second (telephone) survey of 756 senior citizens aged 60 and over in the six-county Chicago region was undertaken by Leo J. Shapiro & Associates in 2007 for Pace (Mueller and Jane, 2007). Below is a description of fare-related findings.

 80.1 % of senior citizens are retired or not working. Correspondingly, 19.9 % are employed.  Transit fares are not an important consideration in the decision to choose transit. A mean rating of 4.2 out of 5.0 was the response to “$ .75 senior bus fare is acceptable.” A mean rating of 2.5 was the response to “I would ride if fares went up to $1.00.”  The cost of operating and maintaining a personal vehicle was an important consideration in choosing the auto option.  ADA eligible seniors are almost as likely to drive as non-ADA eligible persons, 80 % compared to 84 %, respectively.  7 % of ADA eligible riders responded “much/somewhat more likely” to use fixed-route bus service (in lieu of ADA special services) if fixed-route fares were free.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 89

3. ADA Study

A third study (DiJohn et al., 2008) estimated the cost of providing free-fare ADA complementary paratransit service in the state of Illinois. Below are the major findings.

 The free ADA service could result in an estimated average increase in annual ADA trips between 71% and 95% in the Chicago area.  The range in estimated annual ADA trip increase at a 90% confidence level would be between 37% and 135%.  The ranges vary in Chicago, suburbs and downstate based on their fare elasticity.  Given previous industry free ride experiments, the latent demand exhibited by the large number of disabled persons living within ¾ mile of a fixed route and the expected diversion of wheelchair riders currently using fixed routes, the study found reasonable to expect increases in ridership approaching 100%.  The current and additional annual costs based on the 2007 cost per trip for city, suburban and downstate service were found to be:

Current cost of service (trips  cost per trip) $99.3 million At the lower limit of ridership increase $141.5 million At the upper limit of ridership increase $202.9 million

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 90

II. RTA SENIORS USERS SURVEY

1. Survey Objectives

The objectives of the Free Seniors users survey are to identify the habits of free ride users and determine whether seniors have changed their public transit usage because they are paying no fare.

2. Development of Sample

The objective was to develop a sample of seniors as close to random as possible. The only stratification was by area of residence: City of Chicago, rest of Cook County, DuPage County, Kane County, Lake County, McHenry County and Will County. Initially, two options were available: (a) sample in proportion to the number of seniors in each area or (b) in proportion to the number of seniors with senior free cards in each area. The second way seemed to be preferable because the target population was the seniors with SRF cards. Indeed, seniors with an RTA Senior Ride Free card are, in general, proportionally fewer in the collar counties (Table 49), which is not surprising given the lower availability of transit in the collar counties. Had we ignored this fact and sampled in proportion to the number of all seniors in each area we would have obtained a very different sample (Table 49 and Figure 34).

Table 49. Senior Population in the RTA Region

Population 65 and over* Seniors with SRF Card** Total Area Population Number Percent Number Percent Cook County 624,187 11.79% 213,808 4.04% 5,294,664 DuPage County 100,835 10.84% 61,737 6.63% 930,528 Kane County 43,543 8.58% 18,596 3.66% 507,579 Lake County 68,863 9.67% 46,953 6.59% 712,453 McHenry County 32,125 10.08% 19,644 6.16% 318,641 Will County 57,505 8.44% 19,993 2.94% 681,097 Total 927,058 10.98% 380,731 4.51% 8,444,962 *Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties of Illinois: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 (CO-EST2008-01-17); Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Release Date: March 19, 2009 **Data from Polaroid

A stratified random sample of 5,000 was drawn. The user mail-out-mail-back survey was sent to them with the goal of obtaining at least a 1,000 completed surveys. Limited resources did not allow for adequate survey pretesting nor did we attempt to oversample in the City of Chicago for possible underreporting. With these observations in mind, from each geographic region we randomly selected as depicted in the second from last column of Table 49.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 91

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Cook DuPage Kane Lake McHenry Will County County County County County County

Population 65 and over RTA Free Seniors

Figure 34. Distributions of senior population and RTA Free Seniors

3. Survey Instrument Development

In conjunction with the RTA and the Survey Research Laboratory (SRL) at UIC, we developed a survey instrument that elicited information on the frequency of use of public transit by purpose (work/nonwork), day of week (weekday/weekend), and time of day (peak/off-peak) before and after the Seniors Ride Free program started. The questionnaire is a pen and pencil instrument (PAPI).

The survey instrument was pre-tested on May 20th, 2009 in a seniors center located in North Shore Hotel, 1611 Chicago Ave., Evanston, IL 60201. Researchers from the UIC team visited with the seniors at the center and discussed the Seniors Ride Free program as well as the reasons for soliciting the seniors help during the survey pretest. The feedback was significant and resulted in important modifications in the content and design of the survey. The survey questionnaire was finalized on June 4, 2009 and can be seen in Appendix 2.

4. Survey Logistics

The cover letter, printed on UTC letterhead, the survey questionnaire, and a return #9 envelope, pre-addressed and pre-stamped, were enclosed in a #10 windowed envelope to each of the 5,000 survey seniors with a RTA Seniors Ride Free Fare card. The survey mail out was completed on July 24, 2009.

The UIC Survey Research Laboratory (SRL) began receiving completed questionnaires the week of August 3, 2009. The survey questionnaire, a cover letter (also shown in Appendix 2) and a pre-stamped return envelope were mailed out to 5,000 seniors with a RTA Seniors Ride Free Fare card. One thousand eight hundred and seven surveys were returned for a return rate of 39.3 percent in spite of the fact there was no follow-up letters or phone calls. The completed surveys were mailed directly to SRL for coding and developing a final data set for analysis. The SRL

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 92 entered data from the completed questionnaires and checked and cleaned the data to ensure that any illegal answers were caught and corrected and any missing data properly coded.

5. Highlights of Survey Results

Transit Use  44% of the respondents did not have a reduced fare card prior to the program.  34% of the respondents currently use transit one or more times per week.  28% responded they ride transit more frequently as a result of the program; an approximately equal percentage (31%) reported they use cars and taxis less.

Why and How They Ride  13% reported taking rides that are work related while 16% were currently employed.  47% reported having ridden CTA bus in the previous week, 25% CTA rail, 31% Metra and 17% Pace.  50% of respondents reported taking more transit trips during rush hour, and 52% rode more during weekends since the program started.

Socioeconomic Profile  Over 90% reported living in households of 1 or 2 people.  79% respondents had a driver's license and 81% had an auto available.  16% are currently employed, 5% less than at the start of the program.  33% had incomes less than $22,000 annually.  28% had income more than $55,000 annually.  About 44% (59% of the rides) of the respondents would qualify for the CB program based on income eligibility.

Attitudes about the Seniors Ride Free Program Continuation  71% of respondents think the program should be continued,  24% think it should be limited to low income seniors, and  4% think it should be discontinued.

6. Survey Discussion

This section presents an analysis of a survey of seniors with Senior Ride Free cards. Five thousand survey instruments were sent out by mail to a stratified random sample of people who had registered for the Seniors Ride Free Program. The stratification was done by county of residence. One thousand eight hundred and seven surveys were returned for a 39.3 percent response rate. Analysis was preformed on weighted data as described below. The survey instrument is presented in Appendix 2.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 93

Weighting

Weighting is necessitated because of differential rates of response for different demographic groups. The principle is that instead of scaling up the entire survey result from the sample to the population, the scaling up is done for each demographic group separately and then aggregated. For example, if the response rate for one demographic group is half that for another, the responses for the first group would get twice the weight as the second. This issue gets a little more complicated when samples are stratified but the principle is basically the same.

When surveys are taken of the general population, Census provides data with which to determine response rates for different demographic groups. In the case of this survey, the sample was drawn from a list of holders of Senior Ride Free (SRF) Card. For this group only limited demographic information has been gathered or tabulated.

Location of residence is available for this population. Therefore, responses to this survey were weighted by the ratio of SRF cardholders and completed returns by region. Table 50 shows the numbers of survey questionnaires mailed out and returned as well the total SRF Card holders by region at the time of the survey.

Table 50. Survey Responses by Region

Total SRF Percent Region Mailed Out Returns Card Response Holders City of Chicago 2515 831 33.04% 146,043 Suburban Cook County 1622 615 37.92% 121,789 DuPage County 318 138 43.40% 34,831 Kane County 93 39 41.94% 11,348 Lake County 235 102 43.40% 27,558 McHenry County 112 48 42.86% 12,038 Will County 105 34 32.38% 11,983 Average Total 5,000 1,807 365,590 39.28%

As can be seen from the table above, variation in the responses was relatively slight from County to County. Still the location variable was deemed important enough [e.g., to estimate the effects on the different Service Boards] that we believed such weighting was necessary to reach good conclusions about SRF cardholders. It should be noted that age information was not available in the list of SRF cardholders obtained at the time of the survey.

Question 1 – Public Transit Use

It is not entirely surprising that 21.25 percent of SRF cardholders would ride transit three or more times a week (Table 51) although this number is far higher than that we would have got

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 94 had we sampled all residents. Our sample included only people who had a Seniors Ride Free Card and it is reasonable to expect SRF cardholders to ride transit more.

Table 51. Q1. Public Transit Use

Rides- Weighted Based 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Weighted Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Percentage Valid Responses Responses of Valid Responses 3 or more times a week 413 76,265 21.25% 19.69 22.82 60.32% 1-2 times a week 230 44,048 12.27% 11.00 13.54 16.74% A few times a month 355 70,722 19.71% 18.14 21.28 15.24% A few times a year 595 129,417 36.06% 34.12 38.00 7.55% None of the time 181 38,411 10.70% 9.44 11.96 0.15% REFUSED OR MISSING 33 6,726     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

It is noticeable, however, that two out of three of all SRF cardholders used transit a „few times a month‟ or less, more than a third used it „a few times year‟, and over 10 percent of cardholders did not use transit.

As a note, „Weighted Frequency‟ in Table 51 (and in the tables thereafter) means an estimate of the total number of SRF cardholders who would respond as indicated; e.g., in Table 51, we estimate that 76,265 SRF cardholders said they used transit „3 or more times a week‟14. Table 51 (and tables thereafter) also shows the 90 percent confidence limits for the percentages of valid responses. Moreover, „Rides-Based Weighted‟ percentages in Table 51 and later tables indicate the percent of rides taken by a category of riders. For example, 21.25% of the riders rode transit three or more times a week but took (not surprisingly) 60.32% of the rides.

Question 2a – Local Rides in Previous Week

During the week before taking the survey, about 30 percent of SRF cardholders did not take any rides (by transit, car or taxi) at all (Table 52). Some claimed to have taken more than 50 trips. They are too few [11 out of 1807] in the sample for us to get unduly concerned about. These numbers are not entirely implausible if we consider that if it takes two transfers each way to commute, commuting alone for a five-day workweek would account for 30 transit trips.

14 Each respondent is „weighted‟ using the weights in Table 50 based on his/her region of residence. In other words, each respondent is counted as many times as the weight corresponding to his/her location of residence.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 95

Table 52. Q2a. Number of Local Rides in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 494 105,071 29.74% 27.87 31.60 8.16% 1 to 4 470 92,631 26.26% 24.52 28.01 16.38% 5 to 10 395 77,328 21.93% 20.29 23.56 23.39% 11 to 20 280 55,378 15.70% 14.26 17.14 29.9% More than 20 105 22,270 6.37% 5.37 7.37 22.16% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 4 879     DON'T KNOW 2 351     REFUSED OR MISSING 57 11,682     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

It is gratifying to notice that relatively more people report taking even numbers of trips. It is estimated that SRF cardholders took 2,453,928 local rides the week prior to the survey.

The average trip rate reported (based on survey responses) by cardholders is estimated to be 6.96 trips per week. In comparison, the observed (based on actual ridership) trip rate for registered SRF cardholders in June 2009 is computed to be 7.99 trips per month. There could be many reasons for this. One possible reason is that those who did not use transit at all or used it very little did not respond to the survey making the survey largely one of heavy users. Another cause, which we look at later in this report, is that riders do not use the Senior Ride Free card on every ride. When they don‟t, the Service Boards do not count them as using the card. Other possible reasons include respondents‟ difficulty recalling trips they took and situations where a respondent took two trips but there was nothing to record the transfer – e.g. going from CTA Blue Line to Red Line using a connecting tunnel.

Question 2b – Local Rides Work Related in Previous Week

Eighty seven percent of the SRF cardholders took no work related trips (Table 53). This number is strikingly similar to the 84% of the cardholders who were not employed (Table 86).

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 96

Table 53. Q2b. Number of Local Rides Work Related in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 1483 301,252 86.63% 85.27 88.00 76.65% 1 to 4 86 17,062 4.91% 4.04 5.77 4.96% 5 to 10 103 20,764 5.97% 5.02 6.93 11.59% 11 to 20 35 6,649 1.91% 1.38 2.45 4.47% More than 20 10 2,001 0.58% 0.27 0.88 2.32% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 1 252     REFUSED OR MISSING 89 17,610     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

The pattern of relatively larger numbers of even numbers of trips persists in this case also and indeed throughout the survey.

SRF cardholders took an estimated 384,24315 work related trips (16% of all trips) the week prior to the survey for an average trip rate of 1.1 trips per week.

Question 2c – Local Rides by Mode in Previous Week

Tables 54 through 58 show the SRF choice of mode of transportation for local rides. Almost half of SRF cardholders rode a CTA bus the week prior to the survey (Table 54). This leads to an estimated 800,637 rides per week for 17.9 percent of all rides16 or 143,094 rides for which a full fare was paid. The remaining 657,543 (800,637 - 143,094) rides per week or 2,630,173 monthly rides are the estimated free rides. This survey-based estimate of free rides is about 25 percent higher than the CTA bus ridership of 2,098,401 rides for June 2009.

15 Based on tallying up the products of number of rides and the number of (weighted) SRF cardholders in Table 53, e.g., 1,610 cardholders took 1 ride, 7, 724 cardholders took 2 rides, and so forth. 16 Based on a comparative use of reduced fare cards before the SRF program started and SRF cards after the program started. More details of the methodology are presented in the „Short Term Financial Impact of the SRF Program‟ section in Chapter 2.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 97

Table 54. Q2c1. Number of Local Rides on CTA Bus in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 702 150,416 52.68% 50.48 54.88 0.00% 1 to 4 419 79,622 27.89% 25.94 29.84 26.60% 5 to 10 214 38,836 13.60% 12.16 15.05 36.20% 11 to 20 79 13,995 4.90% 4.01 5.79 26.39% More than 20 15 2,658 0.93% 0.54 1.33 10.81% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 3 550     DON'T KNOW 1 198     REFUSED OR MISSING 374 79,314     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

More than 25 percent of SRF cardholders rode CTA rail the week prior to the survey (Table 55). This leads to an estimated 217,656 rides per week, for 15.3 percent or 33,203 rides of which a full fare was paid. The remaining 184,453 (217,656 - 33,203) per week or 737,810 monthly rides are estimated free rides. This survey-based estimate of free rides is about 92% higher than the reported CTA rail ridership of 384,143 trips for June 2009. Respondents‟ over-reporting their rides may also be partly attributed to an over-counting of rail transfers that are not accounted for by CTA‟s ridership figures.

Table 55. Q2c2. Number of Local Rides on CTA Rail in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 802 168,921 74.73% 72.61 76.85 0.00% 1 to 4 222 42,401 18.76% 16.85 20.67 45.19% 5 to 10 68 12,290 5.44% 4.37 6.50 38.1% 11 to 20 13 2,428 1.07% 0.58 1.57 16.7% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 351     REFUSED OR MISSING 700 139,199     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

More than 30% of SRF cardholders rode Metra the week prior to the survey (Table 567). This leads to an estimated 247,647 rides per week for 26.5 percent or 65,558 rides of which a full fare was paid. The remaining 182,089 (247,647 - 65,558) rides per week or 728,355 monthly rides are estimated free rides. This survey-based estimate of free rides is about 145 percent higher than the reported Metra rail ridership of 297,650 rides for June 2009. In addition to respondents‟ over-reporting as discussed above, this difference between estimated and actual free rides may be attributed to an under-counting (due to manual methods) of senior trips.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 98

Table 56. Q2c3. Number of Local Rides on Metra in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 800 165,910 69.43% 67.12 71.74 0.00% 1 to 4 277 60,086 25.14% 22.96 27.33 53.79% 5 to 10 53 11,472 4.80% 3.72 5.88 36.9% 11 to 20 6 1,297 0.54% 0.18 0.91 6.91% More than 20 1 198 0.08% 0.00 0.22 2.4% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 351     DON'T KNOW 1 176     REFUSED OR MISSING 667 126,101     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

Almost 18 percent of SRF cardholders rode Pace the week prior to the survey (Table 57). This translates into an estimated 157,593 rides per week for 21.5 percent or 33,918 rides of which a full fare was paid. The remaining 123,675 (157,593 – 33,918) rides per week or 494,700 monthly rides are estimated free rides. This survey-based estimate of free rides is about 190 percent higher than the reported Pace ridership of 170,442 trips for June 2009 and may be attributed to survey issues as discussed earlier, as well as recall issues. Potential misuse of SRF cards as discussed in the „Registrations‟ section may also add to this discrepancy.

Table 57. Q2c4. Number of Local Rides on Pace in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 840 175,250 82.23% 80.26 84.20 0.00% 1 to 4 149 29,745 13.96% 12.18 15.73 45.77% 5 to 10 32 6,701 3.14% 2.22 4.07 32.57% 11 to 20 4 824 0.39% 0.07 0.71 8.07% More than 20 3 604 0.28% 0.01 0.56 13.59% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 351     DON'T KNOW 1 198     REFUSED OR MISSING 776 151,916     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

Finally, more than 55 percent of SRF cardholders rode a car or took a taxi the week prior to the survey (Table 58). This leads to an estimated 1,581,587 trips per week.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 99

Table 58. Q2c5. Number of Local Rides on Car or Taxi in Previous Week

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Rides Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 535 111,694 44.80% 42.39 47.20 0.00% 1 to 4 204 40,245 16.17% 14.43 17.91 6.61% 5 to 10 222 44,412 17.84% 16.02 19.66 22.45% 11 to 20 167 35,626 14.31% 12.60 16.02 35.71% More than 20 76 16,914 6.88% 5.61 8.14 35.21% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 9 1,757     DON'T KNOW 1 176     REFUSED OR MISSING 593 114,765     Total 1807 365,590 100.00%   100.00%

It is interesting to observe that adding up the rides by CTA, Metra, Pace and car or taxi we end up with 3,005,120 trips. This is a 22 percent overestimate of 2,453,928 „all local rides‟ reported by SRF cardholders in Question 2a earlier. Clearly, there is a lack of consistent reporting among respondents about recalling their rides.

Question 3 – SRF Card Use in Previous Week

Forty seven percent of the SRF cardholders reported not using their card at all in the previous week (Table 59). This number probably includes the 30 percent of cardholders who did not take any local rides at all (Table 59). Thus 17.43 percent (47.17% - 29.74%) of cardholders took transit, but never used the SRF card which they possessed. About 35 percent of cardholders used the SRF card all the time.

Table 59. Q3. Senior Ride Free Card Use in Previous Week

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses None of the time 787 167,965 47.17% 45.17 49.17 About a quarter of the time 184 36,815 10.34% 9.13 11.55 About half the time 86 16,848 4.73% 3.90 5.57 More than half the time 56 10,553 2.96% 2.32 3.61 All the time 647 123,891 34.79% 32.92 36.67 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 5 1,270    REFUSED OR MISSING 42 8,249    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 100

Question 4 - Public Transit Use Compared to before SRF Program

Twenty eight percent of SRF cardholders said they used transit more after the SRF program started (Table 60) but mostly for other than employment-related reasons; only about two percent of the respondents said that they have increased their employment from part-time or non- employment to full-time employment.

About nine percent said they used it less. Much of this could be due to other changes in lifestyle. For example, about eight percent of the respondents said that they have reduced their employment status from full-time employment to part-time or non-employment (Questions 14 and 22).

Table 60. Q4. Public Transit Use Compared to before SRF Program

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses More frequently 503 99,073 28.35% 26.55 30.15 Less frequently 153 30,139 8.62% 7.51 9.74 About the same 1073 220,249 63.03% 61.09 64.96 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 396    REFUSED OR MISSING 76 15,732    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Question 5 - Additional Transit Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

About 87 percent of SRF cardholders took additional transit rides the week prior to the survey compared to before the SRF program started (Table 61). This leads to an estimated 420,076 additional rides per week (1,680,302 monthly) or an average of 4.2 additional rides per week for each SRF cardholder. In comparison, the monthly combined SRF ridership for all service boards is reported to be 2,950,636 rides for June 2009. Therefore, 57 percent of the actual SRF ridership (not including the paying SRF cardholders) is estimated to be additional rides taken by seniors after the SRF program started.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 101

Table 61. Q5. Number of Additional Transit Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 57 12,099 13.03% 10.35 15.72 5.52% 1 to 4 262 52,490 56.55% 52.72 60.37 38.71% 5 to 10 106 19,918 21.46% 18.35 24.57 32.53% 11 to 20 40 7,262 7.82% 5.85 9.80 19.81% More than 20 5 1,055 1.14% 0.26 2.02 3.43% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 12 2,401     DON'T KNOW 2 374     REFUSED OR MISSING 19 3,473     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Question 6 - Increased Work Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Since few of the respondents (16%) were employed, there was very little increase (11.7%) in transit work trips (Table 62). Still, this leads to an estimated 74,985 additional work trips per week or an average of 0.8 trips for each (employed) SRF cardholder.

Table 62. Q6. Number of Increased Work Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 427 84,506 88.30% 85.90 90.69 79.43% 1 to 4 30 5,670 5.92% 4.17 7.67 7.82% 5 to 10 19 3,753 3.92% 2.45 5.39 6.81% 11 to 20 8 1,428 1.49% 0.63 2.36 4.27% More than 20 2 351 0.37% 0.00 0.80 1.68% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 3 698     DON'T KNOW 1 198     REFUSED OR MISSING 13 2,468     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Question 7 – Additional Rush-Hour Transit Rides

Fifty percent of SRF cardholders increased their riding transit during rush hour (Table 63). This leads to an estimated 188,018 additional rides per week during rush hour or an average of 1.9

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 102 additional rides for each SRF cardholder – based of course on those who responded to the survey which we believe were the heavier users. Indeed seniors who rode transit three or more times a week are responsible for two out of three additional rides in the rush hour.

Table 63. Q7. Number of Increased Transit Rides per Week that Began or Ended in Rush Hour Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 229 46,230 50.20% 46.32 54.08 36.27% 1 to 4 173 33,891 36.80% 33.07 40.53 35.58% 5 to 10 54 10,154 11.03% 8.66 13.39 20.02% 11 to 20 10 1,824 1.98% 0.95 3.01 8.12% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 3 698     DON'T KNOW 1 198     REFUSED OR MISSING 33 6,077     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Question 8 – Additional Weekend Transit Rides

Fifty two percent of SRF cardholders increased their riding transit on weekends (Table 64). This leads to an estimated 164,430 additional weekend rides per week or an average of 1.7 additional transit rides per SRF cardholder. Again, six out of 10 of these rides are made by seniors who rode transit three or more times a week.

Table 64. Q8. Number of Increased Weekend Transit Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 224 44,829 47.82% 43.97 51.66 35.9% 1 to 4 208 40,754 43.47% 39.66 47.28 46.14% 5 to 10 36 6,819 7.27% 5.32 9.23 12.5% 11 to 20 7 1,351 1.44% 0.54 2.34 5.45% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 4 824     DON'T KNOW 3 572     REFUSED OR MISSING 21 3,923     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 103

Question 9 – Additional Transit Rides by Service Board

The previously discussed increase in transit rides can now be assigned to each service board. For reasons discussed earlier, ridership figures may be overestimated, especially for Metra and Pace. However, the percentage-wise relative magnitude of the estimated additional ridership is informative for planning purposes.

More specifically, more than 87 percent of SRF cardholders took additional rides on CTA (Table 65). This leads to an estimated additional 306,820 trips per week or an average of 3.1 rides for each SRF cardholder. Recall that a combined total of 1,018,293 weekly rides reportedly were taken on CTA (Questions 2c1 and 2c2). Therefore, additional rides on CTA represent 30 percent of the total. Moreover, seniors took 711,473 (1,018,293 - 306,820) weekly rides on CTA before the SRF program started.

Table 65. Q9a. Number of Increased CTA Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 40 8,871 12.76% 9.63 15.89 1.61% 1 to 4 206 39,536 56.88% 52.52 61.24 40.83% 5 to 10 93 17,036 24.51% 20.80 28.22 38.23% 11 to 20 16 2,834 4.08% 2.42 5.73 11.87% More than 20 7 1,230 1.77% 0.67 2.87 7.47% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 16 3,199     DON'T KNOW 1 176     REFUSED OR MISSING 124 26,191     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Similarly, 76 percent of SRF cardholders took additional trips on Metra (Table 66). This translates into an estimated additional 129,891 trips per week or an average of 1.3 rides for each SRF cardholder. Recall that a total of 247,647 weekly rides reportedly were taken on Metra (Question 2c3). Therefore, additional rides on Metra represent 52 percent of the total. Moreover, seniors took 117,756 (247,647 - 129,891) weekly rides on Metra before the SRF program started.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 104

Table 66. Q9b. Number of Increased Metra Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 65 12,455 24.11% 19.67 28.54 4.97% 1 to 4 153 32,834 63.56% 58.47 68.65 71.34% 5 to 10 26 5,470 10.59% 7.30 13.88 19.67% 11 to 20 3 726 1.41% 0.01 2.81 4.03% More than 20 1 176 0.34% 0.00 0.90 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 7 1,617     REFUSED OR MISSING 248 45,795     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

Finally, 47 percent of SRF cardholders took additional rides on Pace (Table 67). This leads to an estimated additional 51,938 trips per week or an average of 0.5 rides for each SRF cardholder. Recall that a total of 157,593 weekly rides reportedly were taken on Pace (Question 2c4). Therefore, additional rides on Pace represent 33 percent of the total. Moreover, seniors took 105,655 (157,593 - 51,938) weekly rides on Pace before the SRF program started.

Table 67. Q9c. Number of Increased Pace Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 82 16,314 52.26% 45.50 59.02 3.72% 1 to 4 56 11,550 37.00% 30.44 43.56 60.37% 5 to 10 16 3,153 10.10% 6.08 14.12 28.38% 11 to 20 1 198 0.63% 0.00 1.68 7.53% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 3 626     REFUSED OR MISSING 345 67,232     Total 503 99,073 100.00%   100.00%

All Service Boards combined experienced an estimated 488,649 additional rides per week or 36 percent of the total reported transit rides. That is, more than one in three rides per week were not taken before the SRF program started.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 105

Questions 10 and 11 – Use of Cars or Taxis

Thirty one percent of SRF cardholders reported using cars or taxis less often compared to before the SRF program started (Table 68). Four percent use car/taxis more often while 65 percent of SRF cardholders have not changed their habits.

Table 68. Q10. Use of Cars or Taxis Compared to before SRF Program

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses More frequently 69 13,857 4.03% 3.23 4.82 Less frequently 552 107,563 31.25% 29.39 33.11 About the same 1078 222,772 64.72% 62.80 66.65 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 12 2,383    REFUSED OR MISSING 96 19,014    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

More than 73 percent of SRF cardholders took fewer car/taxi trips compared to before the SRF program started (Table 69). This leads to an estimated 278,155 fewer car/taxi trips per week (2.6 trips per SRF cardholder) or 18 percent of all car/taxi trips reported (Question 2c5). Considering that an estimated additional 488,649 transit trips per week were taken, it appears that the shift from car/taxi to transit for SRF cardholders is 56.9% of the additional weekly transit rides, i.e., of the increased number of rides taken by Senior Ride Free cardholders as compared to Senior Reduced Fare cardholders about 57 percent were diversions from automobile.

Table 69. Q11. Number of Fewer Car/Taxi Rides per Week Compared to before SRF Program

Rides-Based Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Percentage Frequency of Valid Valid Responses of Valid Responses Responses 0 121 23,483 26.22% 22.78 29.65 8.49% 1 to 4 250 49,249 54.99% 51.10 58.88 68.67% 5 to 10 71 13,733 15.33% 12.52 18.15 12.91% 11 to 20 14 2,527 2.82% 1.59 4.05 7.99% More than 20 3 572 0.64% 0.03 1.25 1.94% NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 14 2,771     DON'T KNOW 7 1,467     REFUSED OR MISSING 72 13,761     Total 552 107,563 100.00%   100.00%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 106

Questions 12 and 13 – Reduced Fare Card Use

About 56 percent of SRF cardholders had an RTA reduced-fare card before (Table 70). Forty three percent of them were 65-74 years old, 41 percent were 75-84 years old, and 16 percent were older than 85 years of age. Of the 44 percent without a prior reduced-fare card, 69 percent were 65-74 years old, 24 percent were 75-84 years old, and seven percent were older than 85 years of age.

Table 70. Q12. Had RTA Reduced Fare card before Senior Ride Free card

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes 1015 200,920 55.65% 53.68 57.63 No 768 160,099 44.35% 42.37 46.32 DON'T KNOW 3 572    REFUSED OR MISSING 21 4,000    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

More than 86 percent of SRF cardholders used their reduced-fare card before the SRF program started (Table 71). Of those 57 percent used it all the time. Recall that SRF cardholders claimed using their card „all the time‟ only 35 percent of the time in the week prior to the survey (Table 59).

Table 71. Q13. Frequency of Using Reduced Fare Card

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses None of the time 127 26,422 13.84% 11.94 15.74 About a quarter of the time 186 37,247 19.51% 17.37 21.66 About half the time 58 10,889 5.71% 4.49 6.92 More than half the time 41 7,898 4.14% 3.08 5.19 All the time 554 108,408 56.80% 54.13 59.47 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 6 1,238    DON'T KNOW 2 396    REFUSED OR MISSING 41 8,420    Total 1015 200,920 100.00%  

At this point it is useful to examine the relative use of reduced fare and SRF cards in Table 72. The comparison should take into account the difference in the time scale between the two cards; the SRF card use is reported for the week prior to the survey while that of the reduced fare card is reported for the period prior to the SRF program in general. However, the differential use

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 107 resulting from such comparison is informative and could be used to develop financial impact scenarios as demonstrated in Chapter 1.

Table 72. Relative Use of Reduced Fare and SRF Cards (based on riders)

Used Reduced Fare Card Used SRF Card in Previous Week Before SRF Program About a Total Started None of the About half More than quarter All the time time the time half the time of the time None of the time 13.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.9% About a quarter of the time 11.8% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.7% 19.8% About half the time 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 5.7% More than half the time 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 4.2% All the time 14.8% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2% 36.7% 56.5% Total 41.2% 9.5% 4.5% 3.1% 41.8% 100.1%

Note in Table 72 the diagonal elements have been highlighted. Entries above the diagonal reflect the relative use of SRF cards compared to reduced fare cards. Entries below the diagonal show the relative use of reduced fare cards compared to SRF cards. It is interesting to observe that the percentages above the diagonal are lower than those below the diagonal. This means that the relative frequency of use of SRF cards is not as high as was with the reduced fare cards. This is a somewhat counterintuitive behavior that led us to examine the relationship using rides (instead of riders). Table 73 shows the expected shift into a heavier use of a SRF card compared to a reduced fare card.

Table 73. Relative Use of Reduced Fare and SRF Cards (based on trips)

Used Reduced Fare Card Used SRF Card in Previous Week Before SRF Program About a Total Started None of the About half More than quarter All the time time the time half the time of the time None of the time 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% About a quarter of the time 0.4% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 3.0% 9.5% About half the time 0.2% 1.3% 2.5% 0.7% 2.2% 6.9% More than half the time 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 3.6% 3.1% 8.8% All the time 1.8% 2.5% 1.4% 2.5% 65.7% 73.9% Total 2.9% 9.5% 6.1% 7.1% 74.5% 100.0%

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 108

Question 14 – Employment Status before SRF Program

Seventy eight percent of SRF cardholders were not employed before the start of the program in March 2008 (Table 74). This is slightly better than the currently 84% unemployed (Table 86) and may be a result of deteriorating labor markets, especially for seniors.

Table 74. Q14. Employed Right before the Start of Free program

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes, employed full-time (4 or 221 45,054 12.45% 11.13 13.76 more days/week) Yes, employed part time (3 or 163 32,801 9.06% 7.93 10.20 less days/week) No, not employed at that time 1406 284,069 78.49% 76.86 80.12 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 374    REFUSED OR MISSING 15 3,292    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Questions 15 and 16 – Gender and Age

Female SRF cardholders have responded disproportionally high compared to their male counterparts (Table 75). There was insufficient information in the cardholders‟ database to alleviate the gender bias.

Table 75. Q15. Gender

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Male 718 147,109 40.53% 38.58 42.47 Female 1077 215,898 59.47% 57.53 61.42 REFUSED OR MISSING 12 2,583    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

The age breakdown of SRF cardholders reveals that 57% are in the age group 65-74, 35% are between 75 and 84 years old, and only about 8% are 85 years of age or older (Table 76). This breakdown compares well with Census projected 2010 age groups 65-74 (53%) and 75-84 (32%). The comparison for the age group 85+ is less favorable (15%) and reveals a sharper decrease in public transit use for older seniors (fewer older SRF seniors responded than older seniors in the Census).

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 109

Table 76. Q16. Age

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Less than 65 4 880    65-74 986 199,426 56.92% 54.93 58.92 75-84 598 121,224 34.60% 32.69 36.52 85+ 149 29,689 8.47% 7.37 9.58 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 3 572    REFUSED OR MISSING 67 13,799    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Question 17 – Household Income

One in three of SRF cardholders live in households earning less than $22,000 annually before taxes (Table 77). This is a group of cardholders that certainly qualifies for the Circuit Breaker (CB) program17. The current cut-off for single individuals is about $22,500. For two people households, the cut-off is about $33,800. Taking all this into account, we find that about 44 percent18 of the respondents would qualify for the CB program based on income eligibility. This number could be an overestimate because those not responding to the survey could have a higher income.

Table 77. Q17. Total Household Income in 2008 before Taxes

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Less than $22,000 553 104,665 33.15% 31.20 35.11 $22,000 to $30,000 226 44,898 14.22% 12.76 15.69 $30,000 to $37,000 163 33,799 10.71% 9.38 12.03 $37,000 to $55,000 215 44,395 14.06% 12.58 15.54 $55,000 or more 410 87,949 27.86% 25.92 29.80 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 4 802    DON'T KNOW 2 396    REFUSED OR MISSING 234 48,686    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

17 The 2009 eligibility criteria were: $25,532 for one-person households, $33,877 for two-person households, and $42,220 for three-person households. 18 The income brackets in the survey fall in between the current income eligibility criteria. The 44 percent estimate is obtained from a cross tabulation of rides taken by different income groups.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 110

Table 78 presents rides taken by people living in various household sizes with different levels of household income. Interestingly, seniors living alone or with a companion take almost nine out of ten rides. We estimate that people who could be eligible for the Circuit Breaker program based on income take 59 percent19 of SRF rides.

Table 78. Number of Rides by Household Size and Income in 2008 before Taxes

Total Household Income in Number of People Living in Household 2008 before Taxes Total More Than One Two Three to Four Five to Ten Ten Less than $22,000 393,107 177,783 44,448 16,019 9,886 641,243 $22,000 to $30,000 58,003 79,760 21,988 6,327 3,515 169,593 $30,000 to $37,000 44,112 51,478 6,681 2,115 0 104,386 $37,000 to $55,000 35,880 70,358 4,323 252 0 110,814 $55,000 or more 82,111 156,749 24,140 1,055 0 264,055 Total 613,213 536,128 101,581 25,767 13,401 1,290,090

In addition, 28 percent of SRF cardholders live in households earning more than $55,000 annually before taxes. The differing views of these income groups about the SRF program are explored later.

Moreover, SRF cardholders with household income $55,000 or more less often use their SRF card „all the time‟ compared to those with income less than $22,000 (26% vs. 42%). The two groups on the opposite side of the income scale were more similar in their use of reduced-fare card „all the time‟ (36% for the high-income group vs. 30% for the low-income group).

Similarly, 34 percent of SRF cardholders with income $55,000 or more never used their SRF card compared to 20 percent of those with income less than $22,000. Interestingly, the reverse is true for the use of the reduced fare card; 25 percent of the high-income group never used it compared to the 32% of the low-income group. The differences for the „middle-income‟ groups are smaller.

Question 18 – Household Size

More than one in three SRF cardholders live alone (Table 79). Moreover, 53 percent live with somebody else but less than 10 percent live in three-person or larger households. Forty two percent of seniors 85 years of age and older live alone, and 50 percent live with somebody else.

19 The income brackets in the survey fall in between the current income eligibility criteria. The 59 percent estimate is obtained from a cross tabulation of rides taken by different income groups. This time what is tallied up is the number of rides instead of riders.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 111

Table 79. Q18. Number of People Living in Household

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses 1 677 132,230 37.19% 35.27 39.10 2 901 188,624 53.05% 51.05 55.04 3 to 4 142 27,969 7.87% 6.80 8.93 5 to 10 33 6,417 1.80% 1.28 2.33 More than 10 2 351 0.10% 0.00 0.21 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 1 176    DON'T KNOW 1 198    REFUSED OR MISSING 50 9,625    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Questions 19, 20 and 21 – Driver’s License, Ability to Drive and Auto Availability

About 80 percent of SRF cardholders, of whom 70 percent are less than 85 years of age, have a valid driver‟s license, are able to drive, and have an automobile available (Table 80 through Table 82). Only five percent of seniors with a driver‟s license and able to drive (6 percent with auto availability) are 85 years of age and older (Table 83).

Of those with a valid driver‟s license and able to drive 42 percent are women (Table 84). Moreover, of those with an automobile available 45 percent are women. Recall that the female respondents outweigh their male counterparts in the sample by six to four.

Table 80. Q19. Have a Valid Driver's License

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes 1384 287,397 79.16% 77.62 80.71 No 410 75,645 20.84% 19.29 22.38 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 1 198    REFUSED OR MISSING 12 2,350    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

The frequency of riding public transit is different between seniors who have a valid driver‟s license, are able to drive and have automobile availability vis-à-vis those who don‟t. Forty two percent of the former group (46% of those with auto availability) rode public transit a few times a year or less (Table 85).

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 112

Table 81. Q20. Able to Drive

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes 1380 287,200 79.26% 77.72 80.79 No 410 75,169 20.74% 19.21 22.28 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 374    DON'T KNOW 2 374    REFUSED OR MISSING 13 2,473    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

The previous observations are further illustrated in the use of SRF and reduced-fare cards. Forty one percent of SRF cardholders with a valid driver‟s license or able to drive – 44 percent for cardholders with an automobile is available – never used their SRF card20. The numbers are different for reduced-fare cardholders. Twelve percent of reduced-fare cardholders with a valid driver‟s license or able to drive or with an automobile is available – never used their reduced-fare card.21

Table 82. Q21. Currently Have an Automobile Available

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes 1392 289,493 80.68% 79.18 82.18 No 380 69,313 19.32% 17.82 20.82 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 2 446    DON'T KNOW 1 270    REFUSED OR MISSING 32 6,068    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

20 These results are obtained by a cross tabulation of Question 3 with each of the Questions 19, 20 and 21. 21 These results are obtained by a cross tabulation of Question 13 with each of the Questions 19, 20 and 21.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 113

Table 83. Driver‟s License, Ability to Drive and Auto Availability by Age Group

Had Driver’s License Ability to Drive Auto Availability Age Yes No Total Yes No Total Yes No Total 65-74 48.22% 8.80% 57.02% 47.86% 9.14% 57.00% 46.60% 10.26% 56.86% 75-84 25.94% 8.58% 34.52% 25.97% 8.56% 34.53% 27.73% 6.96% 34.69% 85+ 5.07% 3.39% 8.46% 5.30% 3.17% 8.47% 6.29% 2.16% 8.45% Total 79.23% 20.77% 100.00% 79.13% 20.87% 100.00% 80.62% 19.38% 100.00%

Table 84. Driver‟s License, Ability to Drive and Auto Availability by Gender

Had Driver’s License Ability to Drive Auto Availability Gender Yes No Total Yes No Total Yes No Total Male 36.12% 4.45% 40.57% 36.71% 3.78% 40.49% 35.34% 5.56% 40.90% Female 42.99% 16.44% 59.43% 42.55% 16.96% 59.51% 45.30% 13.80% 59.10% Total 79.11% 20.89% 100.00% 79.26% 20.74% 100.00% 800.64% 19.36% 100.00%

Table 85. Driver‟s License, Ability to Drive and Auto Availability by Public Transit Use

Public Had Driver’s License Ability to Drive Auto Availability Transit Use Yes No Total Yes No Total Yes No Total 3 or more times a 12.04% 9.21% 21.25% 12.33% 8.85% 21.18% 10.13% 10.89% 21.02% week 1-2 times 7.82% 4.39% 12.21% 7.83% 4.51% 12.34% 7.87% 4.31% 12.18% a week A few times a 16.09% 3.58% 19.67% 15.86% 3.74% 19.60% 16.64% 3.06% 19.71% month A few times a 33.09% 2.38% 36.27% 33.83% 2.30% 36.13% 35.77% 0.66% 36.43% year None of 9.32% 1.38% 10.60% 9.31% 1.43% 10.74% 10.25% 0.41% 10.65% the time Total 79.07% 20.93% 100.00% 79.17% 20.83% 100.00% 80.67% 19.33% 100.00%

Question 22 – Current Employment

About 84 percent of SRF cardholders are currently not employed (Table 86). This is five percent more than before the SRF program started in March 2008 (Table 74) and is a result of deteriorating labor markets, especially for seniors.

Different age groups have been affected in different numbers. Of the 84 percent currently unemployed, 50 percent are 65-74 years of age, 36 percent are 75-84 years of age, and 14 percent older than 85 years old. The age composition of the unemployed prior to the start of the SRF program is similar.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 114

Table 86. Q22. Currently Employed

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Yes, employed full-time (4 or 142 29,012 7.99% 6.92 9.07 more days/week) Yes, employed part time (3 or 148 30,124 8.30% 7.20 9.40 less days/week) No, not employed at this time 1504 303,775 83.71% 82.24 85.17 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 1 176    REFUSED OR MISSING 12 2,503    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Question 23 - Attitudes about the SRF Program

Seventy one percent of SRF cardholders believe that the SRF program should be continued in its current form (Table 87). One in four believe that the program should be limited to senior citizens with lower incomes. Four and a half percent believe that the program should be discontinued.

Table 87. Q23. Attitudes about the SRF Program Continuation

Weighted 90% Confidence Weighted Percentage Response Frequency Limits for Percent of Frequency of Valid Valid Responses Responses Continued in its current form 1268 254,309 71.14% 69.33 72.96 Limited only to senior 424 87,112 24.37% 22.65 26.09 citizens with lower incomes Discontinued 74 16,035 4.49% 3.64 5.34 NO CODED RESPONSE APPL. 26 5,127    DON'T KNOW 4 877    REFUSED OR MISSING 11 2,129    Total 1807 365,590 100.00%  

Twenty five percent of seniors living in households with income less than $22,000, and 17 percent of seniors living in households with income $55,000 and above want the SRF continued in its current form. Seniors living in households with income $55,000 and above and wanting the SRF program discontinued outweigh four to one (2% vs. 0.5%) those with the same attitude living in households with income less than $22,000.

Attitudes about the SRF program are markedly different for cardholders living alone or with somebody else and those living in larger (3 persons or more) households. More than 63 percent of seniors in the former group believe the SRF program should continue as is. Only eight percent of seniors in the latter group believe so.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 115

Transit use is different among cardholders with unlike attitudes about the SRF program. Eighty four percent of frequent transit users (3 or more times a week) believe the SRF program should be continued in its current form and only one percent wants the program discontinued. On the contrary, fifteen percent of cardholders who never use transit believe the program should be discontinued. More generally, 88 percent of cardholders who are infrequent transit users (a few times a year or less) want the program discontinued.

Attitudes about the SRF program vary by place of residence as shown in Table 88. Nine percent or more of SRF cardholders living in DuPage, Kane and McHenry counties believe the program should be discontinued. Less than two percent in the city of Chicago, less than three percent in Will County and three percent in Lake County share the same opinion. Suburban Cook county cardholders also are three times more inclined to discontinue the SRF program than City of Chicago cardholders. Caution should be exercised when applying these results since the survey responses are heavily weighted toward Cook County (Table 50).

Table 88. Thoughts about the SRF Program Continuation by Place of Residence

Limited only Continued in to senior Region its current citizens with Discontinued Total form lower incomes City of Chicago 78.0% 20.2% 1.8% 100.0% Suburban Cook County 66.9% 27.6% 5.5% 100.0% DuPage County 64.4% 25.2% 10.4% 100.0% Kane County 61.5% 28.2% 10.3% 100.0% Lake County 67.3% 29.7% 3.0% 100.0% McHenry County 62.2% 28.9% 8.9% 100.0% Will County 76.5% 20.6% 2.9% 100.0%

References

DiJohn, J., P. Metaxatos, L. Dirks and K. Allen (2008). ADA Special Services: Price Elasticity for the Provision of Free Service in the State of Illinois. Final Report. Illinois Department of Transportation Division of Public and Intermodal Transportation. May 14, 2008.

Mohammadian, K., Thakuriah, P., and Rashidi, R.H. (2009). Effectiveness of Transit Strategies Targeting Elderly People: Survey Results And Preliminary Data Analysis. Research Report ICT-09-033. Illinois Center for Transportation, February 2009.

Mueller, M. and Jane, T. (2007). Understanding Senior’s Unmet Transportation Needs. Leo J. Shapiro & Associates. Chicago, Illinois.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 116

CHAPTER 3

TASK III – MARKET ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 117

I. SENIOR CITIZEN AND DISABLED DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS

1. Introduction

The demographic forecasts in Chapter 3 utilize population projections provided by the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) and the Illinois Department on Aging (DOA). DCEO publishes county-level projections by age and ethnicity at five-year intervals from 2000 to 2030. DOA uses the projections for senior service planning and divides Cook County into Chicago and Suburban Cook. The methodology used by DCEO is described in the document "Population Projection Methodology" found on the DCEO website, along with the data. A cohort-survival method is used, including birth and death rates and net migration.

Section 2 of this chapter presents regional population projections by county for the six-county region. Section 3 focuses on projected senior populations and the impact of aging baby boomers on the region. Section 4 presents a methodology for projecting disabled populations and Section 5 presents a discussion on the impacts that these demographics might have on the regional transit system.

2. Regional Population Projections

DCEO projections indicate population growth in all sub-regions. Cook County growth dominates in numbers, gaining over half a million in population from 2010 to 2030, or thirty- eight percent of all regional growth. However, growth rates in the collar counties are higher, as shown in Figure 35. In 2000 Cook County had sixty-six percent of the region‟s population; by 2030 its share is projected to be fifty-nine percent due to growth in the suburbs.

The growth pattern in the Chicago region has been one of population loss in the inner city and corresponding suburban population gains, first in the inner suburbs, and then in the outer suburbs. This population loss in Chicago has reversed in recent years; growth rates are slow, but increasing. Growth rates in the region‟s suburbs have been high, but are slowing. Figure 36 shows the future effect of these continued growth patterns as the total collar county population gains on Cook County.

Figure 37 shows that projected growth for the “younger” collar counties continues this pattern of first rapid and then slowing growth. DuPage and Lake County, which filled in first during the mid twentieth century, show substantially lower growth rates than Will, Kane and McHenry. As the sub-regional growth patterns play out, Kane and McHenry counties are expected to grow rapidly, and then less so, with populations remaining somewhat below that of current leaders DuPage and Lake.

Will County is the exception, and is projected to continue growing rapidly, increasing it‟s population by 20% from 2020 to 2030. Will is expected to surpass DuPage County in population by 2030 (Figure 37).

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12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000

- 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cook Collar Counties Total

Change 2010- Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2030

Cook 5,386,673 5,453,899 5,472,429 5,562,950 5,707,832 5,835,948 5,990,243 517,814 DuPage 905,764 930,482 948,549 958,778 1,010,323 1,026,713 1,034,039 85,490 Lake 645,503 703,760 762,918 794,851 820,250 863,245 873,024 110,106 Will 503,162 610,155 706,639 808,846 907,625 999,824 1,093,207 386,568 Kane 404,834 459,164 516,914 572,277 630,563 668,645 679,403 162,489 McHenry 260,528 297,935 337,034 377,315 407,931 434,286 443,398 106,364 Collar Total 2,719,791 3,001,496 3,272,054 3,512,067 3,776,692 3,992,713 4,123,071 851,017 Region Total 8,106,464 8,455,395 8,744,483 9,075,017 9,484,524 9,828,661 10,113,314 1,368,831 Figure 35. Regional Population Projections

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Cook DuPage Lake Will Kane McHenry

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030

County 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 Cook 2% 4% 5% DuPage 5% 7% 2% Lake 18% 8% 6% Will 40% 28% 20% Kane 28% 22% 8% McHenry 29% 21% 9%

Figure 36. Percent Change in Population 2000-2030

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 119

1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DuPage Lake Will Kane McHenry

Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 DuPage 905,764 930,482 948,549 958,778 1,010,323 1,026,713 1,034,039 Lake 645,503 703,760 762,918 794,851 820,250 863,245 873,024

Will 503,162 610,155 706,639 808,846 907,625 999,824 1,093,207 Kane 404,834 459,164 516,914 572,277 630,563 668,645 679,403 McHenry 260,528 297,935 337,034 377,315 407,931 434,286 443,398 Total 2,719,791 3,001,496 3,272,054 3,512,067 3,776,692 3,992,713 4,123,071 Figure 37. Projected Population for Collar Counties

Clearly these changes in the distribution of population will have impact on the demand for transportation services and travel patterns among sub-regions. Growth rates are highest in counties where current transit use is lowest. Increasingly we might expect to see suburb-to- suburb travel in patterns that do not correspond to existing fixed route services. It is beyond the scope of this report to assess changes in travel behavior, but these changes will undoubtedly have an impact on how increases in population translate to increases in transit use.

3. Senior Population Projections

The projected senior population data indicate that the senior population for the Chicago region will double between 2000 and 2030, growing from 870,000 to over 1,780,000 (Figure 38). Cook County will continue to dominate, with 60% or more of the region‟s senior population throughout the growth period. The collar counties will also experience large increases in senior population. Senior population in Will County is not projected to exceed DuPage, as is total population, but it is expected to surpass all other collar counties. The large increases in senior population are consistent with the expected impact that aging baby boomers will have on demographic composition. This includes an 83% growth in regional senior population from 2010 to 2030.

Suburban Cook and Chicago are very similar, with more than twice the number of seniors of any collar county throughout the forecast time period. Cook County accounts for about 75% of the senior population in 2000, but by 2030 is estimated to have only about 60% of the regions senior population, due to growth in the collar counties.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 120

600,000

500,000 400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Suburban Cook Chicago DuPage Lake Will Kane McHenry

Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Suburban Cook 331,607 331,719 340,257 376,838 430,052 497,216 557,432 Chicago 299,778 299,985 308,669 343,633 391,980 452,626 505,157 DuPage 88,948 96,909 110,734 133,018 163,604 196,131 223,164 Lake 55,085 61,497 71,894 86,400 103,621 126,689 147,543 Will 41,682 52,012 64,889 83,766 106,222 134,530 165,372 Kane 34,038 38,858 46,618 59,144 74,699 91,214 106,115 M cHenry 20,949 24,141 30,412 39,922 50,623 64,646 78,064 Total 872,087 905,121 973,473 1,122,721 1,320,801 1,563,052 1,782,847 Figure 38. Regional Projected Senior Population by Sub-Region

Figure 39 shows growth rates in senior population by sub-region. These growth rates are expected to be more than double those of total population for most places and time periods, due to the aging baby boomers. The largest impact will be over the next fifteen years and growth rates are projected to begin to drop off by 2030. Growth in the senior age group is projected to account for fifty nine percent of all regional growth during the 2010 to 2030 time period, and the percentage of seniors in the regional population is projected to increase from eleven to eighteen percent.

These estimates may not account for all of the potential net migration of seniors. Net migration is often calibrated for sub-groups at the state or national level, and there may be economic or other regional factors not considered in the projection methodology that drive the location decisions of Chicago area seniors.

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70%

60%

50%

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Will Lake Kane Total Chicago DuPage McHenry

Suburban Cook

% Change 2000-2010 % Change 2010-2020 % Change 2020-2030

Region 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2010-2030 Suburban Cook 3% 26% 30% 64% Chicago 3% 27% 29% 64% DuPage 24% 48% 36% 102% Lake 31% 44% 42% 105% Will 56% 64% 56% 155% Kane 37% 60% 42% 128% McHenry 45% 66% 54% 157% Regional Change 12% 36% 35% 83% Figure 39. Regional Projected Percent Change in Senior Population

The senior cohort share is also projected to change for the six counties over the next twenty years. As mentioned previously, some places are “older” than others in terms of urbanization, development and periods of growth. The “age in place” portion of the population would give sub-regions experiencing earlier growth and development a larger senior cohort than areas of more recent growth. There are other factors such as available housing stock for younger families, employment opportunities and senior-oriented residences and housing developments that impact the regional distribution of seniors.

Cook County has a twelve percent senior cohort for 2000 and 2010, projected to grow to eighteen percent of the total population by 2030. The collar counties have lower percentages of seniors (Figure 40), but by 2030 are also projected to be about eighteen percent seniors. DuPage County is the exception, projected to reach 22% seniors by 2030.

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25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% Cook DuPage Lake Will Kane McHenry

2000 2010 2020 2030

County 2000 2010 2020 2030 Cook 12% 12% 14% 18% DuPage 10% 12% 16% 22% Lake 9% 9% 13% 17% Will 8% 9% 12% 15% Kane 8% 9% 12% 16% McHenry 8% 9% 12% 18% Figure 40. Senior Population as a Percentage of Total Population for Sub-Regions

Figure 41 shows the regional growth in senior population divided by age cohort. The top line of the graph represents the total senior population of the region. The 85+ cohort count is the difference between the points for the total and the 75 to 84 cohort, the 75 to 84 cohort count is the difference between the points on its line and the points on the 65 to 74 cohort line, etc.

As the baby boomers age, the largest impact will be growth in the 65 to 74 age cohort over the next ten to fifteen years. The 65-74 age group projection is over 513,000, growing to 972,000 by 2030. Between 2020 and 2030 growth in this cohort will slow, and the 75 to 84 year old age cohort will increase accordingly. By the year 2030 the regional population for persons 75 and older is projected to be nearly 811,000.

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1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000

200,000

0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

85+ 75-84 65-74

Age 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 65-74 457,529 456,386 513,288 640,465 776,942 897,522 972,093 75-84 308,767 321,205 309,915 315,850 367,852 471,718 579,115 85+ 105,791 127,530 150,270 166,406 176,007 193,812 231,639 Total 872,087 905,121 973,473 1,122,721 1,320,801 1,563,052 1,782,847

Figure 41. Regional Projected Senior Population by Age Cohort

Figure 42 shows the percent change in senior cohorts over the 2000-2030 period. The baby boomer impact will create bulges in senior age cohorts with twenty to twenty eight percent increases as the senior population grows.

Again, we see a decrease in growth rates by 2030. A person born in 1945 will be sixty-five in 2010 and a person born in 1965, at the end of the baby boom will be sixty five in 2030, at the end of our study period. We can expect that growth rates in the senior population will continue to decline between 2030 and 2050, based on the inevitable end of the baby boomer phenomenon. This “wave” effect of aging population, clearly visible in Figure 42, will certainly impact the demand for public transportation services. At first, the impact is likely to be on fixed route systems, since the bulging 65-74 year old age cohort is expected to be mobile and active and services are free. They can be categorized as part of the transit market. As the aging population moves into the 75 and over cohorts, the impact is more likely to be on paratransit systems, which offer more assistance with travel.

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30%

25% 20%

15%

10%

5% 0% -5%

-10% 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

65-74 75-84 85+

Age 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 65-74 0% 12% 25% 21% 16% 8% 75-84 4% -4% 2% 16% 28% 23% 85+ 21% 18% 11% 6% 10% 20% Figure 42. Forecasted Percent Change in Senior Age Cohorts

4. Disabled Population Projections

We used the population projections from DCEO to estimate the future disabled population. We do not expect the percentage of the population that are disabled to remain constant, due to the increase in senior population and the fact that disabilities increase with age. We used the 2000 Census SF3 data for the nation to determine disability rates for the senior population and for the rest of the population. Nationally, in the 2000 Census, thirty-two percent of all persons sixty- five to seventy-four are reported as disabled, and fifty-four percent of all persons seventy-five and older are reported disabled. For persons under sixty-five the rate is sixteen percent. We used these disabled rates to project disabled population for the region.

These projections are for all disabilities and are not projections of those who might qualify for a disabled reduced fare or ADA services. However, given that the growth in disabled is impacted by growth in the senior population, we can assume that many of the additional disabled persons will qualify for disabled transit programs as well as senior transit programs.

Growth in regional disabled population is similar to growth in the total population as seen in Figure 43. The total regional increase in disabled population between 2010 and 2030 is projected to be over four hundred thousand. Growth in Cook County is slower than that of the collar counties, and Cook County‟s share of the disabled population is projected to decrease from sixty-seven percent to about fifty-nine percent by 2030. Overall Cook County is expected to experience an increase of one hundred eighty thousand in disabled population between 2010 and 2030, nearly half that for the region.

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2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cook Total for Collar Counties Total for Region

Region 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Cook 1,029,368 1,043,390 1,048,598 1,075,467 1,120,383 1,175,668 1,236,373 Total for Collar Counties 498,403 553,014 607,515 662,267 728,118 793,423 845,379 Total for Region 1,527,771 1,596,404 1,656,114 1,737,734 1,848,501 1,969,091 2,081,752 Figure 43. Regional Projected Disabled Population

Projected growth in the disabled population for the collar counties also reflects expected growth in total population, as shown in Figure 44. Will County again leads in growth, projected to increase disabled population by over 87,000 from 2010 to 2030. By comparison, DuPage County and Kane County are projected to have half that increase, at 43,000 and 41,000 respectively. Lake and McHenry are projected to have even smaller increases of 37,000 and 29,000, respectively from 2010 to 2030.

Regionally, the percentage of disabled who are seniors is expected to increase from about twenty-five percent to around thirty-five percent over the study period. The fact that most of the growth in the disabled population will occur within the senior cohort has planning implications for transit and paratransit services. We might expect this pattern to follow the same trend as senior growth, with declining growth rates following 2030.

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250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

DuPage Lake Will Kane McHenry

County 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 DuPage 168,682 175,172 180,978 187,114 202,927 214,600 224,479 Lake 117,463 128,929 140,772 148,889 157,112 170,137 177,708 Will 91,344 111,215 129,531 150,064 171,379 193,489 216,671 Kane 73,770 83,798 94,781 106,234 119,205 129,862 136,106 McHenry 47,143 53,901 61,453 69,966 77,495 85,335 90,414 Figure 44. Projected Growth in Disabled Population for Collar Counties

5. Implications for Transit Ridership

Methodology

In order to estimate the changes in senior transit use reflecting the demographic changes described earlier in this chapter, we used the following procedure:

1. Project future registrations for the Senior Ride Free program based on September 2009 Senior Ride Free registration rates by county and the projected growth in senior population for each county. 2. Estimate trip rates (average number of annual trips per person) for each RTA Service Board based on ridership and registration data. 3. Apply the average trip rates to the projected registrants for each county.

The estimates for future transit ridership are based on population projections, and don‟t take into account any future changes in present circumstances with respect to transit use by seniors. The assumptions are as follows: 1. We accept the senior population projections without including changes in birth, death and net migration rates, or other factors that might impact location choices.

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2. The registration rates for the Senior Ride Free Program will remain constant for each county in the region. 3. Trip rates by individuals will remain the same for each mode in future years.

Registrations by Sub-Region

We first attempt to distribute future riders among the sub-regions. RTA data for current registered Senior Ride Free cardholders were provided, geocoded by sub-region (Table 89). These included all Senior Ride Free registrations as of September 2009. In order to prorate the registered users by county, we used Census county-level population estimates rather than projected data. Census population estimates use a base year from the full Census 2000. Actual birth, death and net migration rates are then used to create population estimates from the base year. This makes them more accurate than projections, which use projected cohort survival rates. We used 2008 county-level estimates from the Census to determine the percentage of seniors registered for the Senior Ride Free program. Note that census county estimates for 2009 were not available.

Table 89. Estimated Rate of Registration for Senior Ride Free Program, September 2009

Metric Cook DuPage Kane Lake McHenry Will Collar Total Registered Senior Ride Free 278,570 36,288 11,955 28,802 12,607 12,779 102,431 381,001 Estimated Senior Population 2008 624,187 100,835 43,543 68,863 32,125 57,505 302,871 927,058 Percentage of Seniors Registered 0.45 0.36 0.27 0.42 0.39 0.22 0.34 0.41

These estimates enabled us to project future registrations based on the projected senior populations shown in Figure 38. Table 90 shows the results.

Table 90. Projected Senior Ride Free Registrations by Sub-region

Region 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Cook 289,611 321,541 366,867 423,907 474,226 DuPage 39,850 47,870 58,877 70,583 80,311 Lake 30,070 36,137 43,340 52,988 61,710 Will 14,420 18,615 23,605 29,896 36,750 Kane 12,799 16,238 20,509 25,043 29,135 McHenry 11,935 15,667 19,866 25,369 30,635 Collar 109,762 136,041 168,684 207,388 243,591 Total 400,077 461,414 542,821 642,381 732,712

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Monthly Registrations

We projected the number of persons registered in the Senior Ride Free Program in future years based on registration rates by sub-region and projected senior populations by sub-region. We then needed to estimate trip rates and assign them to those registrants in order to project future ridership in the program. We used monthly registration rates for the Senior Reduced Fare and Senior Ride Free Programs in order to estimate the trip rates for each service board. We needed to produce an annual average number of trips that included seasonal impacts on ridership.

When the Senior Ride Free program began, people were encouraged to retain their reduced fare cards that could be used for free rides, and to switch to Senior Ride Free cards as their current Senior Reduced Fare cards expired. The deadline for transitioning to a Senior Ride Free Smart Card was April 1, 2009.

We obtained from the RTA counts of registrants for Senior Reduced Fare and for Senior Ride free for each month of our study period from March 2008 to September 2009. We also obtained counts of persons who had transitioned from Senior Reduced Fare to Senior Ride Free in order to eliminate double counting of persons whose Reduced Fare cards had not yet expired, but who were registered for the Senior Ride free Program.

Table 91 shows these counts and estimates of those eligible to ride for free for each month. Before the April 2009 deadline, eligible riders were counted as total registrants in both programs, minus those who had transitioned, but whose Reduced Fare cards had not yet expired (removing duplicate counts). After April 1, 2009 the eligible riders are only those registered for Senior Ride Free. We have boldfaced the large increases in numbers of Senior Ride Free registrants and transitions to Senior Ride Free just before the April 2009 deadline when a Senior Reduced Fare card could no longer be used for free rides.

Table 91. Monthly Registrations for Senior Ride Free and Senior Reduced Fare Programs

Senior Reduced Senior Ride Free Transitioned from Estimated New Estimated Eligible to Month Fare Registrants Registrants RF to SRF Senior Ride Free Ride Free Mar-08 252,260 1,734 173 1,561 253,821 Apr-08 250,246 48,816 5,898 42,918 293,164 May-08 247,855 87,234 10,282 76,952 324,807 Jun-08 243,472 104,945 13,106 91,839 335,311 Jul-08 238,011 135,217 18,739 116,478 354,489 Aug-08 231,465 158,355 23,140 135,215 366,680 Sep-08 227,406 181,622 30,337 151,285 378,691 Oct-08 223,300 198,510 38,048 160,462 383,762 Nov-08 219,651 218,214 48,479 169,735 389,386 Dec-08 216,207 246,913 70,109 176,804 393,011 Jan-08 212,063 276,999 93,318 183,681 395,744 Feb-09 208,343 305,413 116,386 189,027 397,370 Mar-09 204,588 348,181 151,836 196,345 400,933 Apr-09 199,523 358,031 153,873 204,158 358,031 May-09 197,078 365,177 154,323 210,854 365,177

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Jun-09 191,946 369,378 151,384 217,994 369,378 Jul-09 186,568 374,854 148,625 226,229 374,854 Aug-09 179,724 382,092 144,386 237,706 382,092 Sept-09 175,512 387,614 141,586 246,028 387,614

We have also boldfaced the maximum number of persons eligible to ride for free at the cut off point of April 09, and notice the subsequent drop in those eligible from around 400, 000 to around 358,000. After April 2009 we see the number of Senior Ride Free registrations once again climb towards the market saturation point of 400,000 (see also Figure 45). By September 2009 the RTA reported nearly 388,000 Senior Ride Free Registrants. We might assume that future registrations beyond the 400,000 count are due to the demographic changes discussed earlier in this chapter.

The number of eligible free senior riders drops 10.7% from March to April, and there is a corresponding drop in free transit trips of 4.1%, or just over one million trips. We notice from the data presented in the first section of this report that the growth in registrations for Senior Ride Free far exceeds the growth in number of trips made. The registration data indicate that around forty percent of the region‟s seniors have registered for the Senior Ride Free Program, and we assume that a much smaller percentage are regular transit users as discussed in the previous chapter.

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

Jul-08 Jul-09 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Sep-09

Figure 45. Monthly Registrations for Senior Ride Free and Senior Reduced Fare Programs

Trip Rate Estimates

We used these estimated monthly “Free Riders” (Senior Ride Free + eligible Reduced Fare registrants) to estimate annual trip rates per person for each of the service boards based on actual ridership data from March 2008 to July 2009. Table 92 shows those results.

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Table 92. Average* Annual SRF Rides Average Annual Service Board Trips Per ‘Free Rider’ CTA 74.24 Metra 8.46 Pace 5.31 * Average trip rates for CTA and Pace were computed using data from August, 2008 through July, 2009. For Metra, average rates were computed using data from July, 2008 through June, 2009.

These numbers may appear low, but they reflect the relationship between transit ridership and registration rates, suggesting that not all eligible seniors are using transit, or use it infrequently, even though they may have registered for the Senior Ride Free program. One contributing factor might be that regular transit users registered when the program began, and that as time passed, subsequent registrants were persons using transit less frequently, in addition, of course, to those becoming eligible due to age. Also the current high registration rates may be reflective of the newness of the program. If this is true then we might expect to see lower registration rates in the future, with higher trip rates for individuals who are transit users, as overall senior populations increase. This does not detract from the fact that the program has undoubtedly attracted new transit users and generated increased transit use by individuals.

We used the annual trip rates for each service board to estimate future ridership based on the projected registrations and the assignment of registrations based on location. Figure 46 shows the projected Senior Ride Free riderships based on annual average trips rates per person for each service board applied to the projected Senior Ride Free registrations.

70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 CTA 40,000,000 Metra 30,000,000 Pace 20,000,000 Total

10,000,000 0 July08- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 June09

July08-June09 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CTA 27,095,669 29,702,190 34,255,981 40,299,713 47,691,171 54,397,462 Metra 3,265,749 3,385,173 3,904,171 4,592,978 5,435,386 6,199,705 Pace 1,917,579 2,125,850 2,451,774 2,884,337 3,413,360 3,893,344 Total 32,278,997 35,213,213 40,611,926 47,777,028 56,539,918 64,490,511 Figure 46. Projected Senior Ride Free Riderships for Service Boards

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 131

6. Long-Term Financial Impacts of the Senior Ride Free Program

The forecasting methodology is based on two assumptions: (a) the current registration rate by county as a percentage of the county seniors will remain constant in the forecast year; and (b) the trips rates by service board (estimated annual trip rate per „Free Rider‟ for each service board) will remain constant for each forecast year. Therefore, future ridership for each service board was projected based on the forecasted senior population and the current county-level registration rates for the Senior Ride Free program. Annual trips per person for each service board were estimated based on one year‟s ridership and registration data. Future registrations were projected for each county in the region and the trip rates were applied for each service board.

The long-term revenue loss estimates assume a range of system fare increases from no increase, 10% and 20% increase over the period (Table 93). Below are the estimated long-term revenue losses between 2010 and 2030 (Figure 47) using fare information from Table 93 and projected SRF ridership in Table 94. The analysis does not consider the reduced fare reimbursement program which relies on annual appropriations by the General Assembly.

Table 93. Projected Service Board Fare Information

2010 Fares22 10% Increase of 2010 Fares 20% Increase of 2010 Fares Estimated Estimated Estimated Average Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Service Reduced Average Reduced Average Reduced Average Full Cash Full Cash Full Cash Board Fare Reduced Fare Reduced Fare Reduced Fare Fare Fare Revenue per Fare Revenue Fare Revenue Fare Ride Revenue per per Ride Revenue per per Ride Revenue per Ride Ride Ride CTA $0.64 $0.95 $2.25 $0.71 $1.05 $2.48 $0.77 $1.14 $2.70 Metra $2.00 $2.95 $2.97 $2.20 $3.25 $3.27 $2.40 $3.54 $3.56 Pace $0.67 $0.91 $1.75 $0.74 $1.00 $1.93 $0.80 $1.09 $2.10

Table 94. Projected SRF Ridership

Service Board 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CTA 29,702,190 34,255,981 40,299,713 47,691,171 54,397,462 Metra 3,385,173 3,904,171 4,592,978 5,435,386 6,199,705 Pace 2,125,850 2,451,774 2,884,337 3,413,360 3,893,344 RTA Total 35,213,213 40,611,926 47,777,028 56,539,918 64,490,511

22 Conveniently, the 2010 fares are the same ones used for the computations of the short-term revenue impacts in Chapter 1.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 132

Figure 47. Estimated Long Term Revenue Losses of SRF Program.

Estimated revenue losses of the SRF program in five-year increments starting in 2010 are shown for each Service Board and total RTA in Table 95, through Table 99. By 2030, the estimated revenue loss of the SRF program assuming no fare increase would be between $49.9 and $147.6 million with a median value of $73.5 million. Assuming a 10% increase in fares, the loss would be between $54.9 and $162.4 million with a median value of $80.9 million. Assuming a 20% increase in fares, the loss would be between $59.9 and $177.1 million with a median value of $88.2 million (Table 99).

The long-term financial impacts examined the revenue loss impacts under the same three scenarios discussed earlier for the short-term survey-free approaches in Chapter 1: (a) SRF riders who used to pay full fare before the program started; (b) SRF riders who used to pay reduced fare before the program started; and (c) SRF riders who used to pay sometimes full fare and sometimes reduced fare before the program started.

Table 95. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program in 2010

0% Fare Increase 10% Fare Increase 20% Fare Increase Estimated Average Estimated Average Estimated Average Service Weighted Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Board Average Full Cash Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Fare Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue CTA $19,039,104 $28,233,307 $66,829,928 $20,943,014 $31,056,637 $73,512,920 $22,846,925 $33,879,968 $80,195,913 Metra $6,770,346 $9,986,260 $10,053,964 $7,447,381 $10,984,886 $11,059,360 $8,124,415 $11,983,512 $12,064,757 Pace $1,424,320 $1,935,487 $3,720,238 $1,566,751 $2,129,035 $4,092,261 $1,709,183 $2,322,584 $4,464,285 RTA Total $27,233,769 $40,155,054 $80,604,129 $29,957,146 $44,170,559 $88,664,542 $32,680,523 $48,186,064 $96,724,955

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Table 96. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program in 2015 0% Fare Increase 10% Fare Increase 20% Fare Increase Estimated Average Estimated Average Estimated Average Service Weighted Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Board Average Full Cash Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Fare Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue CTA $21,958,084 $32,561,896 $77,075,957 $24,153,892 $35,818,086 $84,783,553 $26,349,701 $39,074,275 $92,491,149 Metra $7,808,342 $11,517,304 $11,595,388 $8,589,176 $12,669,035 $12,754,927 $9,370,010 $13,820,765 $13,914,465 Pace $1,642,689 $2,232,225 $4,290,605 $1,806,957 $2,455,447 $4,719,665 $1,971,226 $2,678,670 $5,148,725 RTA Total $31,409,114 $46,311,425 $92,961,950 $34,550,026 $50,942,568 $102,258,145 $37,690,937 $55,573,711 $111,554,340

Table 97. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program in 2020 0% Fare Increase 10% Fare Increase 20% Fare Increase Estimated Average Estimated Average Estimated Average Service Weighted Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Board Average Full Cash Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Fare Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue CTA $25,832,116 $38,306,743 $90,674,354 $28,415,328 $42,137,417 $99,741,790 $30,998,539 $45,968,092 $108,809,225 Metra $9,185,956 $13,549,285 $13,641,145 $10,104,552 $14,904,214 $15,005,259 $11,023,147 $16,259,142 $16,369,374 Pace $1,932,506 $2,626,053 $5,047,590 $2,125,756 $2,888,659 $5,552,349 $2,319,007 $3,151,264 $6,057,108 RTA Total $36,950,578 $54,482,081 $109,363,089 $40,645,636 $59,930,290 $120,299,398 $44,340,693 $65,378,498 $131,235,706

Table 98. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program in 2025 0% Fare Increase 10% Fare Increase 20% Fare Increase Estimated Average Estimated Average Estimated Average Service Weighted Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Board Average Full Cash Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Fare Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue CTA $30,570,041 $45,332,666 $107,305,135 $33,627,045 $49,865,933 $118,035,648 $36,684,049 $54,399,199 $128,766,162 Metra $10,870,772 $16,034,389 $16,143,096 $11,957,849 $17,637,828 $17,757,406 $13,044,926 $19,241,266 $19,371,716 Pace $2,286,951 $3,107,704 $5,973,380 $2,515,646 $3,418,474 $6,570,718 $2,744,341 $3,729,245 $7,168,056 RTA Total $43,727,764 $64,474,759 $129,421,611 $48,100,540 $70,922,235 $142,363,772 $52,473,317 $77,369,710 $155,305,933

Table 99. Estimated Range of Revenue Loss from Senior Ride Free Program in 2030 0% Fare Increase 10% Fare Increase 20% Fare Increase Estimated Average Estimated Average Estimated Average Service Weighted Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Weighted Full Cash Reduced Board Average Full Cash Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Average Fare Fare Fare Fare Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue CTA $34,868,773 $51,707,306 $122,394,290 $38,355,650 $56,878,037 $134,633,718 $41,842,528 $62,048,767 $146,873,147 Metra $12,399,410 $18,289,130 $18,413,124 $13,639,351 $20,118,043 $20,254,436 $14,879,292 $21,946,956 $22,095,749 Pace $2,608,540 $3,544,707 $6,813,352 $2,869,395 $3,899,177 $7,494,687 $3,130,249 $4,253,648 $8,176,022 RTA Total $49,876,724 $73,541,143 $147,620,765 $54,864,396 $80,895,257 $162,382,842 $59,852,068 $88,249,371 $177,144,918

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 134

It was not possible to produce similar estimates of future Circuit Breaker ridership due to the insufficient data because of the newness of the program. In addition, forecasting future income- based disabled transit usage is more complex than estimating senior markets since the criteria of service eligibility are an undetermined subset of the disabled population, and the US Census does not forecast future poverty estimates.

Finally, there are many factors influencing ridership including cost of fares, gasoline prices, employment, other and seasonality. However, it can be predicted that senior and circuit breaker riders will increase as a percentage of total ridership if fares increase (other things being equal23) since that would result in a decrease of fare-paying riders.

It should be noted that future ridership projections are based, in part, on past performance. The recent years of 2008 and 2009 were not typical years due to the poor economy, changes in fares, unseasonable weather and fluctuating gasoline prices. For these reasons, future predictions may vary.

Whatever assumptions are made about the future, the result of the free ride programs will have a significant impact on the financial future of the RTA and its service boards.

23 For example, if gas prices quadruple transit ridership will increase.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 135

II. OTHER UNITED STATES SENIORS RIDE FREE EXPERIENCES

1. National Trends

By 2020, 40 percent of the U.S. population will be senior citizens; many will be unable to drive. In fact, one-fourth of today‟s 75+ age group does not drive. Meeting the transportation needs of seniors is a major community objective as well as a national goal. Public transportation and related travel options represent a lifeline for seniors, linking them with family, friends and a changing society (National Center on Senior Transportation, 2008).

In order to accommodate the growing senior population, several cities have created opportunities and approaches to accommodate this age group become mobile by using public transportation. Between 2010 and 2030, it is estimated that the “baby-boomer” (65+ years) will grow four times faster than the population as a whole in those two decades (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2008). Seniors “who can confidently use public transportation to get to their appointments, shopping destinations, and to visit friends will be able to live in their own homes much longer than those who are reliant on others for their transportation needs ”.

However, tailoring public transportation to meet seniors‟ needs has been somewhat challenging for public transit operators, and many are still researching the best methods and services to and some public transit operators are giving Seniors incentives to ride public transportation for discounted prices, and a few at no cost.

In a survey done in 2005 by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) of people 65 years or older, 98% of respondents felt that maintaining their independence is „extremely important‟, yet seniors worry about their mobility options and being stranded and cut off from family, friends, medical help, community activities, etc. (Miller, 2005). Interesting enough, when seniors were asked about their mobility options, although they recognize the importance of public transportation in their community, they preferred to drive and feel there is a lack of transportation options within their community.

Surprisingly, the survey found that seniors (3 in 5) would use public transportation services if they were easily available in their neighborhoods and 83% of participants if public transit provides faster access to their lifestyles needs: doctor‟s appointment, entertainment, shopping and visiting with friends and family. Furthermore, 80% of the seniors surveyed believe that public transit is easier and more convenient that driving and 82% feel it is a better option at night (Miller, 2005).

2. Transit Agencies Offering Free Transit to Seniors

There are only three large metropolitan areas that permit seniors and/or persons with disabilities to ride free: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Miami. All have experienced similar ridership trends as the RTA region. There are numerous, small urban, rural and paratransit operations that offer free service but very little ridership information is available and are not comparable with a large urban area like the Chicago region.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 136

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA)

As of August 1, 2007, SEPTA expanded the “free” travel hours for seniors to 24hrs/day on SEPTA buses, trolleys and subway-elevated lines with valid Medicare Card, Railroad Retirement Card or Transit ID Card (http://www.septa.com/). Prior to this change, seniors traveled at discounted fares during weekday off-peak hours (with regular fares charged from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.) and all day on weekends and holidays.

SEPTA offers discounted fares for riders with disabilities on fixed route services – buses, subways, trolleys, and Regional Rail. Fares vary depending upon mode and hours traveled. Disabled riders fares had the same time restriction as seniors. As of 8/1/07 disabled riders fares are available 22 hours a day on a weekday excluding 7 to 8 AM and 4:30 to 5:30 PM. All of the above is for fixed route service. The above fares do not apply to Paratransit and Shared Ride services.

Today SEPTA is the nation‟s fifth largest public transportation system, with a vast network of fixed route services including bus, subway/elevated, trackless trolley, light rail, and commuter rail serving a 2,200 square mile service region and 3.9 million population. Its FY 08 annual ridership was 325 million with an average daily senior ridership (fixed route services) of 83,500 trips, and an average daily senior shared ride & ADA ridership of 6,000 trips.

Daniel Casey (SEPTA contact person – contacted September 2008) noted: “SEPTA has always had a free senior citizen program (funded by the Commonwealth) for people aged 65 and over. Prior to August 1,2007 seniors rode free 22 hours a weekday with the exception of 1 hour in the morning and one hour in the afternoon, no time limit on Saturday and Sunday. What we had experienced was a slow deliberate decline in senior ridership year after year. Other transit agencies in Pennsylvania confirmed the same experience. It was generally alluded to that today's young seniors are more car savvy than the 65 year old from ten years ago. The new group grew up post Depression and had more access to a car. Effective 8/1/07 we removed the one hour restriction in the AM and PM and now seniors can ride free 24/7.”

Mr. Casey also observed that: “There has been a jump in senior ridership in the last 12 months but all ridership is up due to fuel costs.” He also said that: “... free senior citizen travel hours is a direct outcome of the new transportation funding legislation recently passed by the PA state legislature. Seniors 65 years of age or older with a valid Medicare Card, Railroad Retirement Card or Transit ID Card will now travel for free on SEPTA buses, trolleys and subway-elevated lines 24-hours-a-day every day of the year. In addition, seniors will be charged only $1.00 to travel on SEPTA regional rail lines within Pennsylvania (fare waved for PACE, PACENET or Medical Assistance/Access card holders). Travel to stations outside the state (such as Trenton or West Trenton) to or from Center City will cost $4.00 for tickets purchased prior to boarding and $4.50 for tickets purchased on-board. Currently, seniors travel at discounted fares during weekday off-peak hours (with regular fares charged from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.) and all day on weekends and holidays.” http://www.septa.com/news/press_releases/073007.html

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 137

The Port Authority of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

The Port Authority of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (http://www.portauthority.org/paac/default.aspx) provides a network of public transportation services to persons traveling within a 775 square-mile area (including the City of Pittsburgh and all of Allegheny County). The Port Authority has a fleet of 861 buses, 83 light rail vehicles (LRVs) and 48 mini-buses. In addition, all of Port Authority‟s buses and light rail vehicles are equipped with lifts, ramps and entry ways for persons with disabilities

With the Monongahela and Duquesne Inclines and sponsorship of ACCESS, the nation‟s largest paratransit program of its kind for senior citizens and persons with disabilities (http://www.asila.org/home/) the Port Authority is one of the nation‟s largest and most diversified public transit agencies. Prior to August 1st, 2007, senior free transit was allowed only during non-peak hours. Port Authority‟s ACCESS transportation system, the first of its kind in the nation, provides vital transportation to approximately two million senior citizens and persons with disabilities each year.

In Allegheny County, the Free Transit Program for Senior Citizens (age 65+) is paid for by proceeds from the Pennsylvania (PA) lottery and reimburses the Port Authority for all senior rides. Seniors present a Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Senior Citizen Identification card (blue for men and yellow for women) or a Medicare card at the time of fare payment. The Port Authority serves approximately 240,000 riders daily and more than 70 million riders annually via 183 bus and 5 rail routes and the Monongahela Incline.

Miami-Dade County Transit, Florida

Senior citizens 65 years and older or Social Security beneficiaries who are permanent Miami- Dade residents, are eligible to ride transit free with a Golden Passport. A current government- issued picture ID, such as a US passport, alien registration, Florida driver's license, or a Florida ID must be used as proof of age; a utility bill as proof of Miami-Dade County residency. (http://www.miamidade.gov/transit/).

People with disabilities also may ride transit free if registered with Special Transportation Service (STS) and have an ADA/STS permit. Passengers in wheelchairs no longer have to display fare media or identification when boarding Metrobus and Metrorail.

Island Transit, Island County, Washington

Island Transit is a „Fare Free‟ transit system in Island County, Washington, which serves Whidbey Island, Camano Island and the towns of Mt. Vernon, Washington and Stanwood, Washington. The system consists of fixed-route service, paratransit, and vanpool.

Island Transit operates from 3:45am to 7:45pm, Monday through Friday, and from 7am to 7pm on Saturday. The buses do not operate on Sundays, except for special service that operates during major Island events, like the Island County Fair.

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 138

Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Portland, Oregon

TriMet offers “Honored Citizen Tickets and Passes” for seniors age 65 or older, Medicare members and people with mental or physical disabilities. Proof of age is required when boarding – a valid photo ID to the operator when paying, or if requested by a fare inspector.

“Honored Citizen” tickets and transfers are accepted on TriMet's LIFT Paratransit service with an additional cash payment.

King County Metro, Washington

King County Metro offers a free service for seniors and people registered for ACCESS transportation for travel to local neighborhood destinations using community and nutrition shuttles. One must be 60+ years old and a King County Resident. The services vary within the County Monday through Friday, from 8am to 6pm.

Effective July 1, 2008, the Metro‟s senior/disabled off-peak and youth cash fares increased by 25 cents. Prices of senior/disabled and Access passes will also increase, beginning with the sale of July 2008 passes.

During the past several years, Metro Transit has taken steps to offset rising costs and hold fares steady. This effort, however, has limited Metro‟s ability to keep up with increasing demand for transit services, and it is affecting the on-time performance of bus service. (http://transit.metrokc.gov/up/sc/rideralert/ra-052008-newfare.html).

CityLink, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho

Citylink is a transportation system that came to full service on Nov. 1, 2005. It is a result of a $1.38 million grant to Kootenai County, Idaho from the Federal Transit Administration, with matching funds of $1.38 million provided by the Coeur d‟Alene Tribe, headquartered in Plummer, Idaho. Services cover the Coeur d‟Alene Reservation and urban areas of Coeur d‟Alene, Post Falls and Hayden. Citylink brings free transportation to all people in the region and its mission is to meet the transportation needs of workers, students, elderly and the general public. Citylink connects business, industry, recreation, educational facilities and health care to all people in the region. The system offers 23 stops. The existing grant and matching funds guarantee service through 2009. Citylink represents the first time in the United States that a tribal government and a local government have collaborated to create free public transportation. (http://idahocitylink.com/)

Prince George's County, Maryland

Seniors (55+) and disabled customers can now ride TheBus FREE-of-charge during normal operational hours from 6 AM – 7 PM, Monday - Friday. Riders just have to present one form of proper identification - driver‟s license, Metro Senior/Metro Disabled/MetroAccess card, or similar ID – to the bus driver. Disabled customers with a MetroAccess ID may bring one personal companion with them on board at no charge.

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Senior and disabled riders utilizing this FREE Fare Program do not receive a paper transfer upon boarding TheBus. To transfer to a Metrobus they pay the applicable fare to the bus driver. Riders with Metro Senior or Metro Disabled cards currently pay only 60 cents for a paper transfer. (http://www.co.pg.md.us/Government/AgencyIndex/DPW&T/Transit/TheBus.asp)

DuFast Transit Authority, Pennsylvania

DuFast Transit Authority offers free senior Citizen Transit Pass people 65+ years. The Pass is used on any public bus system in DuBois, Falls Creek, Sandy Township Joint Transportation Authority. All buses are wheelchair accessible. The free bus rides are sponsored by the Pennsylvania Lottery Program. (http://www.dufast.com/freeseniorpass.htm)

Ben Franklin Transit, Washington

Ben Franklin Transit (http://www.bft.org/) bus routes cover Kennewick, Pasco, Richland, West Richland, Prosser and Benton City. Seniors age 60 and over may ride fixed route buses for free.

References

National Center on Senior Transportation (2008). Driving Retirement Planning: A Good Investment. June/July 2008, Vol.1, No.5 http://seniortransportation.easterseals.com/site/DocServer/0806_NCST_Today_h2.pdf?docID=7 1923

U.S. Bureau of the Census (2008). Projections of the Total Resident Population by 5 Year Age Groups and Sex, with Special Age Categories, Middle Series 1999-2100 (NP-T3). www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum.html

Miller, V. (2005). Most Seniors Worry About Being Stranded Without Transportation. American Public Transportation Association, Dec. 2005. http://www.publictransportation.org/resources/releases/release051207a.asp

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 140

APPENDIX 2

COVER LETTER AND SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE

Analysis of the RTA Seniors and People with Disabilities Ride Free Programs 141

COVER LETTER

Dear RTA Senior Rider:

The Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) is conducting a study to examine how senior riders have changed their public transit usage since the Senior Ride Free program started on March 17th, 2008. We are asking users of Senior Ride Free cards.

Please answer EACH AND EVERY QUESTION in the questionnaire. It should take about 20 minutes of your time.

RETURN THE QUESTIONNAIRE WITHIN 5 DAYS OF RECEIVING THIS LETTER using the pre-addressed stamped envelope.

Your response will be processed anonymously by the Survey Research Laboratory of the University of Illinois, which will collect the surveys and remove identifying information before releasing the data to the research team. Only group summary information will be reported.

The summary of this study will be available to local public officials, community groups, and through the public library. We hope to complete the study within six months.

Your views are important, so we look forward to receiving your input. If you have questions about filling out or returning this questionnaire, please call Paul Metaxatos at (312) 996-4713 or e-mail him at: [email protected]. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

Yours truly,

Joseph DiJohn Urban Transportation Center Project Leader

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SURVEY INSTRUMENT

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