ANAn INFORMATIONinformation FEATUREfeature FORfor THEThe PEMBINAPembina INSTITUTEInstitute

FRIDAY, friday, DECEMBERdecember 7, 2012 CC 1 SpecialSpecial

Climate change Climate change

We’ve never had three years over $1 billion,” he stresses. Mr. Robinson said in a state-state- ment that the bureau hopes its reportreport “will“will actact asas aa catalystcatalyst forfor governments, industry, communi-communi- tiesties andand individualsindividuals toto recognizerecognize thethe weatherweather risksrisks wewe areare facingfacing and to enter discussions about how to reduce their effects on Ca-Ca- nadians’ lives and communities.” Canada needs a national adap-adap- tationtation strategystrategy whilewhile itit worksworks toto IceIce storms,storms, floodingflooding andand forestforest firesfires areare allall expectedexpected toto increaseincrease inin frequencyfrequency asas ourour climateclimate warms.warms. AccordingAccording toto GregorGregor Robinson,Robinson, chiefchief economisteconomist ofof thethe InsuranceInsurance reducereduce emissions,emissions, Prof.Prof. McBeanMcBean says. Bureau of Canada, catastrophic events cost Canadian insurers $1.7 billion in the last year, and about $1 billion in each of the two previous years. ISTOCKPHISTOCkPHOTO.COMOTO.COM says. “We frequently hear that we only contribute about two per Experts cite rise in extreme weather cent of the world’s greenhouse gas Experts cite rise in extreme weather emissions, so it is not our fault,” he notes. “Yet our emissions per person are about 20 tonnes of CO person are about 20 tonnes of CO2 in call for climate change action equivalent per person averaged over the country, and about 70 tonnestonnes perper personperson inin AlbertaAlberta andand ooking back on 2012, next 40 years, predicts the report, thethe pastpast 3030 yearsyears oror soso willwill occuroccur Quebec City region are predicted Saskatchewan, compared to about thethe imagesimages ofof HurricaneHurricane titledtitled Telling the Weather Story: Can about seven times more often,” toto increaseincrease byby aboutabout 5050 perper centcent 1010 tonnestonnes oror lessless inin EuropeEurope andand Sandy’s devastation may Canada Manage the Storms Ahead? says lead author Dr. Gordon Mc-Mc- by 2050. The cost of the Quebec JapanJapan andand aboutabout threethree tonnestonnes perper be the final,final, tragictragic notenote inin aa yearyear “By 2050, the hot day that oc-oc- Bean, a professor of geography at iceice stormstorm ofof 19981998 waswas estimatedestimated atat person in China.” inin whichwhich extremeextreme weatherweather be-be- curred once every 20 years over Western University and renowned between $5 billion and $7 billion, Canada’s emissions have in-in- came impossible to ignore. Across climate scientist. and it had a human impact as creased by 17 per cent since 1990, Canada and around the world, He notes that extreme weather well. Researchers at McGill Uni-Uni- compared with increases of about seven per cent in the U.S. and recordrecord temperatures,temperatures, floodingflooding THEthe PEMBINAPembina INSTITUTEInstitute takestakes aa tremendoustremendous tolltoll onon versity found that children whose seven per cent in the U.S. and and drought show that – while human health as well as the mothers experienced high stress threethree perper centcent inin Norway.Norway. ThereThere economy. For example, more during the storm scored lower was a 17 per cent reduction in the tootoo manymany NorthNorth AmericanAmerican policypolicy Leading Canada’s transition economy. For example, more during the storm scored lower was a 17 per cent reduction in the than 70,000 people died in the on IQ and language performance EU. leadersleaders delaydelay actionaction onon reducingreducing toto aa cleanclean energyenergy future.future. than 70,000 people died in the on IQ and language performance EU. 2003 European heat wave. With tests than those whose mothers In the absence of policy change, fossilfossil fuelfuel useuse –– thethe impactsimpacts ofof 2003 European heat wave. With tests than those whose mothers In the absence of policy change, rising greenhouse gases continue a warmer climate and reduced had less stress. the potential economic, human rising greenhouse gases continue The Pembina Institute is a a warmer climate and reduced had less stress. the potential economic, human toto worsen.worsen. InIn fact,fact, aa recentrecent reportreport national non-profit think precipitation over southern B.C. According to Gregor Robinson, and environmental costs are ex-ex- by reinsurer Munich Re concluded national non-profit think and Alberta, “we will see drought chief economist of the Insurance pected to be enormous. A report by reinsurer Munich Re concluded tanktank thatthat advancesadvances cleanclean and Alberta, “we will see drought chief economist of the Insurance pected to be enormous. A report thatthat thethe overalloverall lossloss burdenburden fromfrom energy solutions through effects on crops, water supply sys-sys- Bureau of Canada, catastrophic published by the National Round weather catastrophes in North energy solutions through tems and natural ecosystems. The events cost Canadian insurers Table on the Environment and the weather catastrophes in North research,research, education,education, consult-consult- tems and natural ecosystems. The events cost Canadian insurers Table on the Environment and the America between 1980 and 2011 ing and advocacy. It provides occurrences of forest firesfires willwill in-in- $1.7 billion in the last year, and Economy, called Paying the Price: was US$1,060 billion (in 2011 ing and advocacy. It provides crease by 50 per cent to more than about $1 billion in each of the two The Economic Impacts of Climate was US$1,060 billion (in 2011 policy research leadership crease by 50 per cent to more than about $1 billion in each of the two The Economic Impacts of Climate values). and education on climate 100100 perper centcent inin manymany sectionssections ofof previous years. “That’s a record. Change for Canada,, concludedconcluded thatthat A recent report commis- and education on climate the boreal forest, as drier condi- “climate change costs for Canada A recent report commis- change, energy issues, green the boreal forest, as drier condi- “climate change costs for Canada sioned by the Insurance Bureau economics, energy efficiency tionstions andand heatheat makemake forestsforests moremore could escalate from roughly $5 of Canada notes that weather economics, energy efficiency vulnerable,” says Prof. McBean. ONLINE? billion per year in 2020 – less than of Canada notes that weather and conservation, renewable vulnerable,” says Prof. McBean. online? billion per year in 2020 – less than extremes are increasing in fre-fre- energy, and environmental The number of freezing rain 1010 yearsyears awayaway –– toto betweenbetween $21$21 quency. Further, the climate will energy, and environmental events lasting more than four For more information, visit billion and $43 billion per year by quency. Further, the climate will governance. events lasting more than four For more information, visit billion and $43 billion per year by continue to warm for at least the hours in the Ottawa-Montreal- www.pembina.org. the 2050s.” continue to warm for at least the hours in the Ottawa-Montreal- the 2050s.”

ThisThis reportreport waswas producedproduced byby RandallAnthonyRandallAnthony CommunicationsCommunications Inc.Inc. (www.randallanthony.com)(www.randallanthony.com) inin conjunctionconjunction withwith thethe advertisingadvertising departmentdepartment ofof TheThe GlGlobeobe andand Mail.Mail. RichardRichard Deacon,Deacon, NationalNational BusinessBusiness DevelopmentDevelopment Manager,Manager, [email protected]@globeandmail.com.

Perspectives: Creating our energy future together

The debate around our energy future has never been as polarized as it is today. For Suncor, sustainable development guides our decision-making. We believe resources should be produced and used in ways that generate economic growth, create social benefits and minimize the impact on the environment. Our approach is to engage with a variety of stakeholders to help us see different perspectives. Together we can build the energy future we all desire.

Find out more about how Suncor is collaborating to responsibly develop North America’s energy supply. www.suncor.com/sustainability CC 2 • An information feature for The Pembina Institute the globe and mail • friday, december 7, 2012

Cl imate Change expert opinion by the numbers Looking west of the Rockies for a lesson in good climate policy 37 Days per year in Toronto with temperatures over 30 degrees an adult conversation on climate tax was implemented. Mean- “Doomsday economic by mid-century1 change and the potential role predictions have proven while, per capita use of the same that carbon taxes could play. In fossil fuels has increased slightly that spirit, here are a few notes on to be well off the mark. throughout the rest of the coun- what B.C.’s experiment can offer In fact, B.C.’s per capita try during the same period. 332 the rest of the country. gross domestic product has Local governments are seeing Consecutive months with a By Matt Horne B.C.’s carbon tax was imple- the tax tip the scales in favour of warmer than average global Director, Climate Change Program, mented four years ago and by all slightly outperformed the community projects that use re- temperature2 Pembina Institute accounts is accomplishing what rest of Canada in the period newable energy or reduce energy it was intended to do – namely since the carbon tax was demand. Based on public opinion reducing greenhouse gas emis- implemented.” polling, just under half (47 per 60% ow much have you heard sions as efficiently as possible. cent) of British Columbians Percentage of U.S. farms located about British Columbia’s The tax makes it more expensive have recently started driving less in drought-stricken regions in carbon tax lately? If the to burn fossil fuels such as coal frequently. Of those, slightly more 20123 answer is “nothing at all,” then or gasoline, adding about seven than half (51 per cent) did so to you’re in good company. Whether cents per litre at the pump. The reduce the carbon tax they pay. it is the federal government’s higher prices encourage decisions Doomsday economic predic- million ongoing campaign against carbon that result in fewer fossil fuels be- tions have proven to be well 3.41 taxes or the lack of discussion ing burned. All of the money col- off the mark. In fact, B.C.’s per Square kilometres of arctic ice in other parts of the country, lected from the tax ($1.2 billion in capita gross domestic product on September 16, 2012 – the most Canadians hear very little 2012) is used to lower other taxes. has slightly outperformed the least amount of arctic ice cover- about the fact that the country’s The tax is having the desired ef- rest of Canada in the period since age ever measured4 west coast is home to one of the fect. While change didn’t happen the carbon tax was implemented. world’s best climate policies. overnight, research shows that Many business leaders and If we’re to do our fair share to per capita demand for gasoline, economists, from B.C. and around 25% fight global warming, this situa- diesel and the other petroleum the world, have praised the tax’s Percentage of GDP that could tion needs to change. B.C.’s policy products subject to the tax has design for its simplicity. be wiped out by catastrophic can provide a starting point for dropped significantly since the B.C.’s carbon tax also provides climate change5 political lessons, and those may be among its most important. The policy survived the 2009 provincial election – an election $2.3 trillion that put carbon taxes on centre Potential global investment in stage. Now, it looks set to survive clean energy by 20206 a second election with both the government and opposition supporting the tax. With the $1.2 billion it generates – about six per 682,000 Canadians working in green cent of provincial tax revenue – 7 the carbon tax is becoming more jobs in 2010 and more entrenched within the province’s fiscal framework, and in the psyche of British Colum- $1.2 billion bians. Generated by British Columbia’s None of this is to say British Co- carbon tax in 20128 lumbians and B.C. businesses are out in the streets celebrating the carbon tax, or that the province has figured out all of its climate 15.1% challenges. For example, how Drop in per capita use of refined government should invest carbon petroleum products in British Columbia since the carbon tax tax dollars remains a prominent 9 debate: some suggest that the was implemented money should go toward projects that reduce pollution, while oth- 1. Insurance Bureau of Canada - Telling the weather story - Page 26. ers believe that reducing other 2. National Climatic Data Center - taxes makes the most sense. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10. At least that debate is happen- 3. U.S. Department of Agriculture - http://www. ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought- ing in British Columbia. If our 2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx. leaders in the rest of the country 4. National Snow and Ice Data Centre - http://nsidc. took the time to realize that the org/news/press/20121002_MinimumPR.html. 5. NRTEE – Paying the Price – page 38. sky hasn’t fallen west of the Rock- 6. Pew Environment Group – Global Clean Power - ies, maybe they would sound less http://www.pewenvironment.org/news-room/ like Chicken Little and more like reports/global-clean-power-a-23-trillion-opportu- nity-8589940389. leaders. 7. ECO – Profile of Canadian Environmental Employement - http://www.eco.ca/pdf/Profile- Matt Horne is director of the Of-Canadian-Environmental-Employment-ECO- Canada-2010.pdf. Pembina Institute’s climate change 8. B.C. Fiscal Plan – 2012 budget documents. program, and holds a master’s 9. Sustainable Prosperity – British Columbia’s Car- degree in resource and environmen- bon Tax Shift: The First Four Years - http://www. B.C.’s carbon tax is a policy success that has resulted in lower carbon emissions without the negative impact on tal management from Simon Fraser sustainableprosperity.ca/article2864. economic growth naysayers predicted. ISTOCkPHOTO.COM University. policy Clean technology critical to Canada’s economy, environment

ccording to a recent outside our borders if we want release by Analytica Advi- to manufacture and export,” she sors, the clean tech sector adds. employs 52,600 Canadians and Tom Rand, managing partner of has the potential to employ al- the MaRS Cleantech Fund, agrees. most twice that many by 2020. It’s “Countries will be either buyers an industry valued at $10.6 billion or sellers of clean technology. The today, potentially exceeding $26 choices we make now will set that billion within five years. dynamic in motion for a genera- On an international scale, the tion.” Pew Environment Group has Clean tech is currently an im- identified clean energy as a US$2.3 portant part of Canada’s economy, trillion opportunity. “Excluding but its future potential outstrips R&D, the clean energy economy that of many sectors, says Mr. has grown over 600 per cent since Rand. “It’s dominated by small 2004,” says Phyllis Cuttino, direc- and medium-sized enterprises. tor of the group’s clean energy Collectively, they spend more on program. R&D than the entire oil and gas In Canada, total private sector sector.” investment in clean energy was Clean tech is also far more likely $5.5 billion in 2011, 11th among G20 to provide export-oriented, high- Clean tech is an important part of Canada’s current economy, and its growth will outpace that of many other sectors. countries, with a five-year growth value jobs, he stresses. ISTOCkPHOTO.COM rate of about 22 per cent. Efforts by Export Development Clean energy is already the Canada and Sustainable Devel- chip, it’s clear that every industry to replace coal, natural gas and oil, hinder Canada’s success in the cheapest and best option in many opment Technology Canada are has had training wheels in the and we have to do it in less than a economy of the future. “We have regions of the world, Ms. Cuttino responsible for attracting a lot of early stages.” generation. It’s the most impor- found that when countries around says. In the absence of the exten- private capital to the sector, says The human and economic costs tant work we can do. Our business the world waver in their commit- sive energy infrastructure that Mr. Rand. But more must be done, of extreme weather around the and political leaders aren’t talking ment to clean energy, investment exists in developed countries, it’s he adds. “There’s a mistaken belief world are alerting leaders to the about it, so the public is lulled falls away and goes elsewhere,” much easier to adopt distributed that somehow clean tech is sup- importance of moving beyond into a sense that there really isn’t she says. “When countries generation, in the same way that posed to succeed on its own, but if a carbon-based economy. The an emergency. But there is an strengthen their goals and com- cell phones were adopted over you think of the political support potential benefit from and need emergency – it’s just happening in mitments, investment floods in. landline technology, says Ms. Cut- for the auto industry – building for clean energy are immense. “We slow motion.” In each and every country, policy tino. In addition to the domestic the highway system – or early need technology that solves this Ms. Cuttino adds that effective matters; investors are really look- energy market, “there is a market military demand for the micro- problem,” says Mr. Rand. “We have policy decisions can enable or ing for certainty.” the globe and mail • friday, december 7, 2012 An information feature for The Pembina Institute • CC 3

Climate Change expert opinion Will Ontario’s energy plan cope with climate change and achieve prosperity?

while driving an estimated 40 (OPG) financial capability to benefits could be achieved by well, valuable and already paid per cent growth in its Canada- build these new reactors. OPG converting Ontario’s existing for publically owned generation wide employment levels over receives almost 70 per cent less coal stations to domestically and transmission assets would the next five years. (cents/kilowatt hour) for the sourced, renewable carbon- be recycled. However, some challenging electricity it generates compared neutral biomass along with We need leadership that obstacles stand in the way: to private-sector generators. As natural gas. Investments in recognizes these benefits and By Don MacKinnon, Ontario must select “Made-in- well, the province must engage biomass fuel supply chain leverages Ontario’s natural President, Power Workers’ Union Canada” Enhanced CANDU 6 the federal government’s help in infrastructure are estimated advantages to better manage technology for the new reactors securing project financing. to create about 3,500 jobs and climate change while generat- and take steps to improve Further GHG reductions contribute about $600 million ing economic wealth for all urricane Sandy has put Ontario Power Generation’s and more jobs and economic annually to Ontario’s GDP. As Ontarians. climate change back in the public spot- light. Days before this power- ful storm, the final climate change report from Canada’s National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) declared that our collective challenge “is not just about coping with climate change, but prospering through it.” With some fine-tuning, Ontario’s energy plan could do more of both.

A recent report prepared for the Canadian Nuclear Association indicated that Ontario’s nuclear investments can help sustain Canada’s multi- billion-dollar nuclear industry and its 60,000 direct and indirect jobs (most of which are in the province), while driving an estimated 40 per cent growth in its Canada-wide employment levels over the next five years.

Natural gas generation is being used to replace coal generation for peak needs and, although the price is volatile, it can technically fill that role and with lower carbon emissions. However, natural gas genera- tion is also planned to provide backup for intermittent wind and solar generation, and they require backup power over 70 per cent of the time. An unin- tended consequence could well be a net increase in Ontario’s THERE’S A BETTER WAY electricity generation from carbon-emitting fossil fuels. As the Environment Com- missioner’s 2011 Greenhouse Gas FOR ONTARIO TO REDUCE Progress Report indicated, even with the coal station closures, this shift to natural gas genera- tion compromises Ontario’s GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ability to meet its 2014 and 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. And now Ontario is more dependent on imported AND GROW OUR ECONOMY natural gas, including envi- Clean technology critical to Canada’s economy, environment ronmentally questionable U.S. shale gas. Families and businesses are seeing Ontario’s electric- What does spending billions for more intermittent wind and solar power backed up ity prices on the way to being among the highest in North by price volatile, carbon-emitting, import dependent natural gas plants deliver? America. Consumers are receiv- ing a Clean Energy Benefit to hide the sticker shock with • Electricity prices on their way to being among the highest in North America money that taxpayers must repay in the future. Meanwhile, • Higher greenhouse gas emissions Ontario’s industries are receiv- ing electricity subsidies to keep • Huge ratepayer subsidies that benefi t big multi-national corporations them competitive. Regrettably, no final price tag • Less energy security, and for these investments in wind, solar and natural gas genera- • An unnecessarily troubled economy. tion is known. These include the costs of: new enabling transmission and distribution lines; smart control tech- Ontario’s natural energy advantages – our hydroelectric and CANDU nuclear fl eets − nologies; and new operating procedures. Additionally, currently provide an electricity system with one of the lowest carbon footprints in the world. hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation will be paid to private developers for two can- Refurbishing these assets and building more is the best way to ensure clean, celled, then relocated, natural gas plants. Big multinational affordable, reliable, secure electricity for the future. wind, solar and natural gas de- velopers are the real winners. Ontario’s energy plan does Converting Ontario’s existing coal generating stations to use domestically sourced, recognize that low-carbon hydroelectric, nuclear and renewable, carbon neutral biomass along with natural gas for peak needs would biomass generation must play a critical role in meeting the make it even better. province’s future electricity needs. Investments are being made to renew existing hydro- electric facilities and to develop This supports Ontario industries, recycles provincially owned assets, and creates Ontario’s remaining hydropow- er potential. As well, the plan more high value jobs and economic wealth. calls for the mid-life refurbish- ments of the province’s nuclear fleet and the construction of Ontario needs leadership that makes smart investments in our natural advantages. two new nuclear reactors at Darlington. It’s a better way to tackle climate change and create economic wealth. These are important invest- ments since GHG emission-free nuclear energy provides about For more information please go to www.abetterenergyplan.ca. half of Ontario’s electricity and 3,000 megawatts of that will disappear in 2020 when the Pickering Nuclear Station is scheduled to close. The eco- nomic stakes are also high. A recent report prepared for the FROM THE PEOPLE WHO HELP Canadian Nuclear Association indicated that Ontario’s nuclear KEEP THE LIGHTS ON investments can help sustain Canada’s multi-billion-dollar nuclear industry and its 60,000 direct and indirect jobs (most of which are in the province),

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