Biographies (169.16
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Monte Carlo Simulations of the Nested Fixed-Point Algorithm
MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF THE NESTED FIXED-POINT ALGORITHM Erik P. Johnson Working Paper # WP2011-011 October 2010 http://www.econ.gatech.edu/research/wokingpapers School of Economics Georgia Institute of Technology 221 Bobby Dodd Way Atlanta, GA 30332–0615 c by Erik P. Johnson. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including c notice, is given to the source. Monte Carlo Simulations of the Nested Fixed-Point Algorithm Erik P. Johnson Working Paper # WP2011-11 October 2010 JEL No. C18, C63 ABSTRACT There have been substantial advances in dynamic structural models and in the economet- ric literature about techniques to estimate those models over the past two decades. One area in which these new developments has lagged is in studying robustness to distribu- tional assumptions and finite sample properties in small samples. This paper extends our understanding of the behavior of these estimation techniques by replicating John Rust’s (1987) influential paper using the nested fixed-point algorithm (NFXP) and then using Monte Carlo techniques to examine the finite sample properties of the estimator. I then examine the consequences of the distributional assumptions needed to estimate the model on the parameter estimates. I find that even in sample sizes of up to 8,000 observations, the NFXP can display finite sample bias and variances substantially larger than the theoret- ical asymptotic variance. This is also true with departures from distributional assumptions, with the mean square error increasing by a factor of 10 for some distributions of unobserved variables. -
Emi Nakamura Recipient of the 2014 Elaine Bennett Research Prize
Emi Nakamura Recipient of the 2014 Elaine Bennett Research Prize EMI NAKAMURA, Associate Professor of Business and Economics at Columbia University, is the recipient of the 2014 Elaine Bennett Research Prize. Established in 1998 by the American Economic Association’s (AEA) Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP), the Elaine Bennett Research Prize recognizes and honors outstanding research in any field of economics by a woman not more than seven years beyond her Ph.D. Professor Nakamura will formally accept the Bennett Prize at the CSWEP Business Meeting and Luncheon held during the 2015 AEA Meeting in Boston, MA. The event is scheduled for 12:30-2:15PM on January 3, 2015 at the Sheraton Boston. Emi Nakamura’s distinctive approach tackles important research questions with serious and painstaking data work. Her groundbreaking paper “Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models” (Steinsson, Jón and Emi Nakamura. 2008. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123:4, 1415-1464) is based on extensive analysis of individual price data. She finds that, once temporary sales are properly taken into account, prices exhibit a high degree of rigidity consistent with Keynesian theories of business cycles and that prior evidence overstated the degree of price flexibility in the economy. Dr. Nakamura’s work on fiscal stimulus combines a novel cross-section approach to identifying parameters with a careful interpretation of business cycle theory to shed new light on crucial questions in macroeconomics. Her findings imply that government spending can provide a powerful stimulus to the economy at times when monetary policy is unresponsive, e.g. -
DP Econometrics 2
This document was generated at 9:20 AM on Friday, November 08, 2013 13 – Econometric Applications of Dynamic Programming AGEC 637 - 2013 I. Positive analysis using a DP foundation: Econometric applications of DP One of the most active areas of research involving numerical dynamic optimization, is the use of DP models in positive analysis. This work seeks to understand the nature of a particular problem being solved by a decision maker. 1 By specifying explicitly the optimization problem being solved, the analyst is able to estimate the parameters of a structural model, as opposed to the easier and more come reduced form approach. This approach was first develop by John Rust (1987) and I draw here directly on his original paper to explain how this is done. He provides a more complete description of his approach in Rust (1994a and 1994b). My focus here will be quite narrow and serves only as an introduction to this literature. A more generally and up-to-date review of approaches for the estimation of the parameters of dynamic optimization problems is provided by Keane et al. (2011). Recall that Rust’s paper was “Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher.” The state variable xt denotes the accumulated mileage (since last replacement) of the GMC bus engines of the bus fleet in the Madison, Wisconsin. Harold Zurcher must make the choice as to whether to carry out routine maintenance, θ θ i=0, or replace the engine, i=1. Each period the operating costs, c(xt, 1) where is a vector of parameters to be estimated. -
National Letter in Support of Federal All-Payer Claims Database
National Letter in Support of Federal All-Payer Claims Database As health scholars, leaders of health organizations, and funders of health research, we are writing in support of establishing a federal all-payer claims database (APCD). APCDs regularly collect data on health insurance claims from all of the payers in a given area (typically a state). Because they include demographic and diagnostic data on patients as well as any treatment or drug paid for by insurance (private or public), APCDs can be immensely valuable for research. APCDs have been used by health scholars to study numerous issues about quality and cost, including the extent of long-term opioid use after surgery, the ability of Medicaid patients to access physicians, the amount of wasted medical spending ending on low-value care, the performance of new models to reduce health spending (such as patient-centered medical home programs), the rate of complications after routine surgeries, and the characteristics of the highest-cost Medicaid patients. In 2016, however, the Supreme Court rendered it all but impossible for states to establish comprehensive APCDs, on the grounds that the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) preempted states from requiring reporting by self-insured health plans. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical Association, this Supreme Court decision has “far-reaching implications for the ability of states to access comprehensive health information to inform policy making.” In May 2019, the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee released a draft of the Lower Health Care Costs Act. Among other things, that Act would amend ERISA to create a federal APCD whose data would be available to “researchers and policymakers.” While we are not all able to take a position on specific federal legislation, we can all agree that a national APCD would be an enormous leap forward for the ability of health researchers to study the cost and quality of medical care across the U.S. -
Present 1995-1996 Mark Bils, University of Rochester Bo Honore, Princeton U
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SHORT-TERM VISITORS 1995 – Present 1995-1996 Mark Bils, University of Rochester Bo Honore, Princeton University 1996-1997 George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon University Dan Peled, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology Motty Perry, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Arnold Zellner, University of Chicago 1997-1998 Costas Meghir, University College of London Dan Peled, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology Motty Perry, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Andrew Postlewaite, University of Pennsylvania 1998-1999 James J. Heckman, University of Chicago 1999-2000 Robert Trivers, Rutgers University Wilbert van der Klaauw, University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill 2000-2001 Richard Blundell, University College London Kyle Bagwell, Columbia University Dennis Epple, Carnegie-Mellon University -- CANCELLED Narayana Kocherlakota, University of Minnesota (Bank of Montreal) Dale Mortensen, Northwestern University 2001-2002 Peter Howitt, Brown University (Bank of Montreal) Bo Honore, Princeton University Tim Kehoe, University of Minnesota Antonio Merlo, University of Pennsylvania Peter Norman, University of Wisconsin Angela Redish, University of British Columbia (Bank of Montreal) 2002-2003 John Abowd, Cornell University George Neumann, Iowa University 2003-2004 Tyler Cowan, George Mason University Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California 2004-2005 Derek Neal, University of Chicago Christopher Flinn, New York University 2005-2006 Christopher Flinn, New York University Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland Derek Allen -
Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU of ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NBER Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH A quarterly summary of NBER research No. 4, December 2017 Program Report ALSO IN THIS ISSUE Employment Changes for Cognitive Occupations, 2000–2012 Industrial Organization Percentage change in STEM and other managerial or professional occupations -20 0 20 40 60 * Teachers (K-12) Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin Managers (All) Nurses Health Technicians Health Therapists Comp. Sci./Programming/Tech. Support Accounting And Finance Economists & Survey Researchers Social Workers, Counselors & Clergy Physicians College Instructors Researchers in the Program on Industrial Organization (IO) study Lawyers and Judges Other Business Support consumer and firm behavior, competition, innovation, and govern- Operations Researchers Physicians' Assistants Medical Scientists ment regulation. This report begins with a brief summary of general Legal Assistants and Paralegals Pharmacists developments in the last three decades in the range and focus of pro- Dental Hygienists Mathematicians/Statisticians/Actuaries gram members’ research, then discusses specific examples of recent Dentists Social Scientists And Urban Planners Artists, Entertainers, and Athletes work. Marketing, Advertising and PR Pilots/Air Traic Control When the program was launched in the early 1990s, two devel- Biological Scientists Physical Scientists Architects opments had profoundly shaped IO research. One was development Writers, Editors, and Reporters Engineering And Science Technicians of game-theoretic models of strategic behavior by firms with market Draers And Surveyors 1 Engineers (All) power, summarized in Jean Tirole’s classic textbook. The initial wave -20 0 20 40 60 of research in this vein was focused on applying new insights from eco- Source: D. Deming, NBER Working Paper No. 21473 nomic theory; empirical applications came later. -
A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: The Economics of Aging Volume Author/Editor: David A. Wise, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-90295-1 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/wise89-1 Conference Date: March 19-22, 1987 Publication Date: 1989 Chapter Title: A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior Chapter Author: John P. Rust Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11588 Chapter pages in book: (p. 359 - 404) 12 A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior John Rust 12.1 Introduction This paper derives a model of the retirement behavior of older male workers from the solution to a stochastic dynamic programming prob- lem. The worker's objective is to maximize expected discounted utility over his remaining lifetime. At each time period t the worker chooses control variables (ct,dt) where ct denotes the level of consumption expenditures and dt denotes the decision whether to work full-time, part-time, or to exit the labor force. The model accounts for the se- quential nature of the retirement decision problem and the role of expectations of the uncertain future values of state variables (xt) such as the worker's future lifespan, health status, marital or family status, employment status, and earnings from employment, assets, Social Se- curity retirement, disability, and Medicare payments. Given specific assumptions about workers' preferences and expectations, the model generates a predicted stochastic process for the variables {ct,dt,xt}. This paper, however, focuses on the inverse or "revealed preference" prob- lem: given data on {ct,dt,xt}, how can one go backward and "uncover" the worker's underlying preferences and expectations? One can formalize the revealed preference problem as a problem of statistical inference. -
Interview of Elizabeth Bailey by Robert Willig May, 2010
Interview of Elizabeth Bailey by Robert Willig May, 2010 In your career you have held so many different important positions and played so many different roles. You have been a typist, a computer programmer, a PhD student, a newly minted PhD researcher, a department head (and my boss) at Bell Laboratories, the Presidentially appointed Vice Chair of the Civil Aeronautics Board, the Dean of a major business school (at Carnegie Mellon University), a chaired Professor of Business and Public Policy at the Wharton School, Member of the Boards of Directors of several Fortune 500 corporations, Member of the Board of Directors of TIAA-CREF, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the NBER, and many other posts and positions. Yet many say that you really have been no different in your persona in any of these jobs. What is your perception of the various important roles you have played, particularly in terms of how you felt in them and what sides of you were particularly exercised? It is true that I have displayed in many ways a consistent persona in my different career positions. I have always felt an enthusiasm for my work and have always enjoyed being a creative problem-solver, whether as a researcher or as an administrator. I have been able to attract good colleagues, and then have become an advocate for them. What I remember most is the energy and excitement I experienced in the process of creating new ideas and institutional changes. Much of my work has been underpinned by strong intellectual foundations. At Bell Laboratories, I helped build an economic research group that could answer questions about multi-product natural monopoly and its economies of scale and scope. -
Redalyc.How to Do Empirical Economics
Investigaciones Económicas ISSN: 0210-1521 [email protected] Fundación SEPI España Kramarz, Francis; Angrist, Joshua D.; Blau, David M.; Falk, Armin; Robin, Jean-Marc; Taber, Christopher R. How to do empirical economics Investigaciones Económicas, vol. XXX, núm. 2, mayo, 2006, pp. 179-206 Fundación SEPI Madrid, España Disponible en: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=17330202 Cómo citar el artículo Número completo Sistema de Información Científica Más información del artículo Red de Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal Página de la revista en redalyc.org Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto JOSHUA.qxd 25/04/2006 9:51 PÆgina 179 investigaciones económicas. vol. XXX (2), 2006, 179-206 HOW TO DO EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS FRANCIS KRAMARZ (Editor) INSEE JOSHUA D. ANGRIST MIT DAVID M. BLAU University of North Carolina ARMIN FALK University of Bonn JEAN-MARC ROBIN Université de Paris 1 CHRISTOPHER R. TABER Northwestern University This article presents a discussion among leading economists on how to do empirical research in economics. The participants discuss their reasons for starting research projects, data base construction, the methods they use, the role of theory, and their views on the main alternative empirical approaches. The article ends with a discussion of a set of articles which exemplify best practice in empirical work. Keywords: Empirical research, econometric methods. (JEL B4, C5, C8, C9) 1. Introductory note by the Guest Editor I was asked by INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS to organize a discussion between leading empirical economists on “How to do empi- rical economics”. In fact, the questions they answered were all address- ing a more personal issue: “how do you practise your empirics”. -
We, the Undersigned Economists, Represent a Broad Variety of Areas of Expertise and Are United in Our Opposition to Donald Trump
We, the undersigned economists, represent a broad variety of areas of expertise and are united in our opposition to Donald Trump. We recommend that voters choose a different candidate on the following grounds: . He degrades trust in vital public institutions that collect and disseminate information about the economy, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by spreading disinformation about the integrity of their work. He has misled voters in states like Ohio and Michigan by asserting that the renegotiation of NAFTA or the imposition of tariffs on China would substantially increase employment in manufacturing. In fact, manufacturing’s share of employment has been declining since the 1970s and is mostly related to automation, not trade. He claims to champion former manufacturing workers, but has no plan to assist their transition to well-compensated service sector positions. Instead, he has diverted the policy discussion to options that ignore both the reality of technological progress and the benefits of international trade. He has misled the public by asserting that U.S. manufacturing has declined. The location and product composition of manufacturing has changed, but the level of output has more than doubled in the U.S. since the 1980s. He has falsely suggested that trade is zero-sum and that the “toughness” of negotiators primarily drives trade deficits. He has misled the public with false statements about trade agreements eroding national income and wealth. Although the gains have not been equally distributed—and this is an important discussion in itself—both mean income and mean wealth have risen substantially in the U.S. -
1 Nobel Autobiography Angus Deaton, Princeton, February 2016 Scotland
Nobel Autobiography Angus Deaton, Princeton, February 2016 Scotland I was born in Edinburgh, in Scotland, a few days after the end of the Second World War. Both my parents had left school at a very young age, unwillingly in my father’s case. Yet both had deep effects on my education, my father influencing me toward measurement and mathematics, and my mother toward writing and history. The school in the Yorkshire mining village in which my father grew up in the 1920s and 1930s allowed only a few children to go to high school, and my father was not one of them. He spent much of his time as a young man repairing this deprivation, mostly at night school. In his village, teenagers could go to evening classes to learn basic surveying and measurement techniques that were useful in the mine. In Edinburgh, later, he went to technical school in the evening, caught up on high school, and after many years and much difficulty, qualified as a civil engineer. He was determined that I would have the advantages that he had been denied. My mother was the daughter of William Wood, who owned a small woodworking business in the town of Galashiels in the Scottish Borders. Although not well-educated, and less of an advocate for education than my father, she was a great story-teller (though it was sometimes hard to tell the stories from gossip), and a prodigious letter- writer. She was proud of being Scottish (I could make her angry by saying that I was British, and apoplectic by saying that I was English), and she loved the Borders, where her family had been builders and carpenters for many generations. -
INAUGURAL CARIBBEAN HEALTH ECONOMICS SYMPOSIUM Bitter
INAUGURAL CARIBBEAN HEALTH ECONOMICS SYMPOSIUM Bitter End Yacht Club Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Islands Agenda – As of December 8, 2015 Sunday, December 13, 2015 Pre-Symposium Necker Island Tour Tour of Richard Branson’s personal island and nature park: 1:00pm to 3:30pm Personal invite from the Richard with opportunity to meet him personally at end of tour. Space is limited. Will leave from BEYC dock on symposia boats or motor launch to Necker Island. Welcome reception, 6:00pm, BEYC Town & Gown Exchange, 7:00pm, BEYC “Publications, Patents and Privacy: Holy Trinity or Bermuda Triangle of Health Economics Research”: Informal forum between policy makers, academics and industry Monday, December 14, 2014 Breakfast at BEYC 7:00 to 8:30 Paper - 8:30 to 9:30: Switching Costs and Plan Loyalty in Medicare Part C. Adam Atherly, University of Colorado, Denver Roger Feldman, University of Minnesota Bryan Dowd, University of Minnesota E. Van den Broek, University of Colorado, Denver Paper - 9:30 to 10:30: Insurer Competition in Health Care Markets Kate Ho, Columbia University Robin S. Lee, Harvard University Coffee and electronic catch-up 10:30 to 11:00 Paper - 11:00 to Noon: Marginal Treatment Effects and the External Validity of the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment Amanda Kowalski, Yale University Afternoon choices and preferences o Afternoon Activities arranged independently by BEYC staff - OR - o Sail excursion to The Baths on Virgin Gorda (with a possible race back) Happy Hour Town & Gown Exchange, 7:00pm, BEYC Has pharmacoeconomics lost its way? Panel discussion featuring work from Andrew Briggs (Glasgow, UK), Adrian Levy (Dalhousie, Canada) and David Henry (Toronto, Canada) paper.