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2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

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2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review THE HONOURABLE ROD PHILLIPS MINISTER OF FINANCE A Plan to Build Ontario Together 2019 ONTARIO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FISCAL REVIEW BACKGROUND PAPERS For general inquiries regarding A Plan to Build Ontario Together — 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, Background Papers, please call: Toll-free English and French inquiries: 1-800-337-7222 Teletypewriter (TTY): 1-800-263-7776 For electronic copies of this document, visit our website at ontario.ca/fallstatement Photo on the cover courtesy of Ontario Tech University, Gaming and Virtual Reality Laboratory © Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2019 ISSN 1483-5967 (Print) ISSN 1496-2829 (PDF/HTML) Ce document est disponible en français sous le titre : Un plan pour bâtir l’Ontario ensemble : Perspectives économiques et revue financière de l’Ontario 2019 — Documents d’information Foreword Foreword In June 2018, our government under the leadership of Premier Doug Ford made the case for a bold new vision for the people of Ontario and for the future of our province. The people of Ontario were working harder, paying more and getting less. We said they deserved better. We promised to build a future where they not only worked to make ends meet, but where they could get ahead and prosper. It starts with lowering taxes, making electricity bills more affordable, and ensuring that home ownership isn’t just a dream, but a reality — thanks to an affordable housing market with adequate supply. Our government sees a future where people can access modern highways, subways, and rapid transit systems, admired and studied around the world. We see a future with state‐of‐the‐art public hospitals, where service levels are high, wait times are low, and transitions to and from home are easy. We see long‐term care homes where our seniors age with dignity. We see a future where our young people are set up for success, have the skills to match the needs of a growing economy, and are adaptable life‐long learners in an ever changing world. We see ourselves as the economic powerhouse of Canada, competitive in the global economy, with a business environment that celebrates our entrepreneurs, supports wealth creation, and brings jobs and investment to our province. A strong Ontario makes for a strong Canada. This vision is not out of reach. Our government has a plan to build a future with a better quality of life and a higher standard of living. The people of this province are our greatest asset. Working together with them, we have everything we need to take on the world and win. Over the past 16 months, our government has worked diligently to clean up the fiscal mess we inherited. For a second year in a row, we are beating our deficit targets. The Province’s current 2019–20 deficit outlook is $9 billion, $1.3 billion lower than the target projected in the 2019 Budget. We will continue to implement our prudent and responsible approach to fixing our finances, balancing the budget by 2023, so that we can make critical investments and provide relief for families and businesses. iii Foreword Since the 2019 Budget, Ontario’s credit rating has been affirmed by all rating agencies and Fitch has improved our credit rating outlook from negative to stable. Since June 2018, more than 272,000 net new jobs have been created and the unemployment rate is near historical lows. This is part of our government’s balanced and prudent Plan to Build Ontario Together. We are working together with the people of Ontario to: Make life more affordable; Prepare people for jobs; Create a more competitive business environment; Connect people to places; Build healthier and safer communities; and Make government smarter. Under the leadership of Premier Doug Ford, Ontario will stand as an island of stability and prosperity in an increasingly uncertain world. I am confident that by working together and implementing our plan, our province will emerge with a stronger fiscal foundation, better services and greater opportunities that will benefit all of us today and generations well into the future. Original signed by The Honourable Rod Phillips Minister of Finance iv Contents Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................ iii Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief .................................................................................................. 3 A Balanced Approach: Beating Deficit Targets, While Investing in Priority Programs .................................... 3 Ontario’s Fiscal Outlook ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Ontario’s Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 7 Ontario’s Debt Challenge .................................................................................................................................... 8 Ontario’s Capital Plan Outlook .......................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 1: A Plan to Build Ontario Together Section A: By Making Life More Affordable Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 Helping Families with their Child Care Expenses .............................................................................................. 17 Supporting Children and Families ..................................................................................................................... 18 Providing Tax Relief for Families When They Need It the Most ........................................................................ 18 Providing Tax Relief to Low‐income Workers ................................................................................................... 19 Providing Dental Care for Low‐income Seniors ................................................................................................ 20 Eliminating Co‐Pays for Pharmacy Payments in Long‐Term Care ..................................................................... 20 Helping to Reduce the Cost of Living in the North ............................................................................................ 21 Making Tuition More Affordable ...................................................................................................................... 22 Making GO Transit Service Free for Kids ........................................................................................................... 23 Providing Free Museum Admission for Young People ...................................................................................... 23 Reducing Electricity Bills ................................................................................................................................... 23 Ending the Cap‐and‐Trade Carbon Tax ............................................................................................................. 25 Increasing Ontario’s Housing Supply................................................................................................................. 26 Eliminating Drive Clean ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Making Auto Insurance Affordable: Fixing the Broken System ......................................................................... 27 Providing Other Relief for Families and Individuals .......................................................................................... 28 v Contents Section B: By Preparing People for Jobs Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 Transforming K–12 Education ........................................................................................................................... 30 Focusing on Science, Technology, Engineering and Math ............................................................................ 30 Introducing a Math Strategy ......................................................................................................................... 31 Modernizing Classrooms .............................................................................................................................. 32 Supporting Students’ Mental Health ............................................................................................................ 33 Accepting Service Animals in Schools ........................................................................................................... 33 Building and Renewing Schools .................................................................................................................... 34 Improving Indigenous Education ...................................................................................................................... 35 Seamless Education for First Nation Students .............................................................................................. 35 Supporting Education for Urban Indigenous Communities .......................................................................... 35 Improving Educational Outcomes .................................................................................................................
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