Pakistan J. Agric. Res. Vol 24 No. 1-4, 2011. VULNERABILITY TO CHANGE: ADAPTATION STRATE- GIES AND LAYERS OF RESILIENCE IN SEMI ARID ZONES OF

Muhammad Azeem Khan*, Abid Hussain, Irfan Mehmood and Sonila Hassan **

ABSTRACT:- This study aims to identify the effects of on the socioeconomic characteristic and livelihoods of farmers in semi arid zones of Punjab and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces of Pakistan. Data for the study has been taken from various issues of Crop Area Production (by districts) MINFA (Eco- nomic Wing), district agricultural departments and meteorological department, . Primary data for the study was collected in 2010 by conducting farm level surveys in Kohat and districts. Clusters of six villages were selected from each district for field surveys. Six community representatives and 36 farm- ers were interviewed by using a set of well-designed questionnaires from each site. Results showed that over last three decades, number of small and tenant farmers increased in the semi-arid zones of Pakistan due to environmental harsh- ness in general and law of inheritance in particular. Due to increase in mean annual temperatures and irregular rain patterns, area under major crops at Kohat and productivity of major crop at Attock decreased. Bivariate correlations be- tween mean seasonal rainfall, area and production of major crops were moder- ately positive and statistically significant (except for wheat crop at Attock). This means that an increase in rainfall contribute positively towards area under major crops and their production and vice-versa. Farmers perceived a major change in climate at Kohat and a minor change at Attock over time. They reported un- sustainability in production practices at Kohat and water management practices at both sites. Main strategies adopted by the farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change were occasional sale of livestock, reduction in consumption ex- penditures, and migration to nearby cities for non-farm employment.

Key Words: Farmers; Livelihood; Socioeconomics; Climate Change; Vulnerability; Bivariate Correlation; Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION ern disturbances and the thunderstorms Pakistan lies in the temperate zone (Kureshy, 1998). The distribution of rain- (between latitdes 24° and 37° N), it has a fall in Pakistan varies on wide ranges. The continental type of climate characterized by summer rainfall in Pakistan may extreme variations of temperature, both vary from 17% to 59% (Luo and Lin, 1999). seasonally and daily. The climate is gener- Land, forests and pastures have been de- ally varied throughout the country, charac- graded by prolonged misuse in the coun- terized by hot summers and cool or cold win- try. The rich soils of the Indus basin are ters mean temperature during June is experiencing water logging and salinity, 38 °C (100 °F) in the plains, the highest tem- wind and water erosion and rapidly spread- peratures can exceed 47 °C (117 °F). Win- ing desertification. Forests are near ex- ters are cold, with minimum mean tem- tinction. Rangelands are being denuded peratures in Punjab of about 4 °C (39 °F) in (FAO, 1995). Pakistan faces many environ- January, and sub-zero temperatures in the mental challenges which need to be ad- far north and (Wikipedia, 2011). dressed since the economy is dependent In Pakistan, most of the rainfall is as- on its natural resources. These challenges sociated with the monsoon winds, the west- are grouped in two broad categories with

*Social Sciences Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. **Social Sciences Division , Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan.

65 MUHAMMAD AZEEM KHAN ET AL. varying degrees of impact. The first, arises income generating activities; and (iv) find from a combination of poverty and popula- out main coping strategies adopted by tion growth, leading to the over-exploitation people to mitigate effects of climate change. of natural resources, and the second, ema- nates from the largely unplanned increase MATERIALS AND METHODS in industrialization and urbanization, lead- Keeping in view the socioeconomic ing to the pollution of water, air and land. factors (poverty, food security, population, The poor are disproportionately affected by unemployment, and income and population this environmental degradation and lack density) and environmental attributes (av- of access to clean, affordable energy ser- erage rainfall, precipitation, humidity and vices (UNDP, 2010). cropping pattern) two semi arid tropics; dis- These changes are exposing farmers trict Kohat (from to new and in many cases unfamiliar con- province) and district Attock from (Punjab ditions . While some farmers may be in a province) were selected. To assess the position to take advantage of these changes in climate, data regarding aver- changes; many more are facing increased age annual rainfall and mean temperature vulnerability. Farmers will have to adapt were collected from Pakistan Metrological to both climate change and economic Department, Islamabad and district agri- changes at the same time, and thus vul- cultural departments. Bivariate correlation nerability must be considered from a com- between mean seasonal (rabi and kharif) prehensive rather than restricted perspec- temperature, area and production of major tive. Vulnerability of farmers to climate crops (wheat and groundnut) and mean sea- conditions as a measure influenced by the sonal rainfall, area and production of ma- capacity to take anticipatory actions–such jor crops from 1969-70 to 1999-2000 was as planting drought resistant seeds, chang- determined to find out relationship between ing the crop-mix, or seeking off-farm in- environmental factors and these variables. come–as well as to recover from losses or As bivariate correlation is a statistical test damages (Watts and Goodman, 1997). Vul- that measures the association or relation- nerability can be assessed at many differ- ship between two continuous/interval/or- ent levels, including household, commu- dinal level variables (Lani, 2008). Pearson nity, region, and nation–although most Correlation (r) was determined, as it is the studies emphasize either the micro-level most commonly used bivariate correlation (household) or the macro-level (nation). The technique which measures the association micro-level studies typically focus on between two quantitative variables with- household vulnerability to either natural out distinction between the independent events such as droughts or floods and dependent variables. A value of (Sivakumar, 2005). Pearson Correlation from zero to 0.30 indi- Therefore, the study was designed to cates a weak, 0.31 to 0.70 a moderate and assess vulnerability of farming community 0.71 to 1.00 a strong relationship between to climate change in semi-arid zones of two quantitative variables (Mertler and Pakistan with the objectives to (i) assess Vannatta, 2005). change in average annual rainfall and daily Primary information was collected by temperature patterns over time and to de- conducting field surveys in tehsil Pindigheb termine their impact on the area and pro- of Attock district and tehsil Lachi of Kohat duction of major crops; (ii) assess the im- district during July-September, 2010. One pact of climate change on demographic union council from each tehsil and then a characteristics at research sites; (iii) cluster of six villages from each union coun- evaluate the perception of farmers about cil were selected for data collection purpose. livestock population, water resources, ac- A set of well designed and pre-tested ques- cess to different social and public institu- tionnaires was used to gather information. tions, labour availability, livelihoods and One community representative and one 66 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE each of small, medium and large farmers 25.0 were interviewed from each village. Thus 245 in total, 12 community representatives and 24.0 72 farmers were interviewed. Community 23.5 representatives were asked about demo- 23.0 22.5 graphic features, their perception about 22.0 primary occupations of the people and live- 21.5 stock population. While, farmers were 21.0 asked to report their perception about irri- 20.5 gation sources, access to different institu- tions, labor availability, information flow, Figure 3. Mean annual temperature (OC) at Kohat site (1954-2000) farm characteristics, livelihood, impact of climate change, effect of climate change to six decades (1948 - 2005) shows that al- on income activities and copping strategies ternate dry and wet periods were generally adopted by the people to mitigate adverse longer than at Kohat (Figure 2). The mini- impact of environmental change. mum rainfall was 492mm in 1975 and maximum was 1542 mm in 1948 with a RESULTS AND DISCUSSION mean annual rainfall of 832 mm. Temperature plays vital role in the Rainfall Distribution and Temperature Trends growth and development of crops. Below in Semi Arid Zones normal rainfall associated with above nor- Before 1984, there are alternate years mal heat in crop atmosphere caused in- of low and high rainfalls at Kohat (Figure- creased evapo-transpiration and moisture 1). Thereafter, generally a year of high stress to crops especially in semi arid ar- rainfall follows a 4-5 years of low rainfalls eas. Mean annual temperature at Kohat at Kohat. Thus there is a obvious change shows great variation over last four to five in rainfall pattern at this site over last five decades (1954-2000). 1200 Average daily temperature at this site 1000

800 reached a maximum of 24.4°C in 1999 and 600 touched a minimum of 22.5°C in 1983 (Fig- 400

200 ure 3). Variations in daily temperature at 0 this site were comparatively smaller be- 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 6 9 2 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 fore 1964 and quite larger thereafter. Av- erage daily temperature at Attock shows Figure 1. Mean annual rainfall (mm) at Kohat site (1954-2005) smaller variations in mean annual tem- decades. Mean annual rainfall was 575 mm, perature than Kohat (Figure 4) Mean daily with a minimum of 233 mm in 1987 and a temperature at this site reached a mini- maximum of 1000 mm in 2004. The aver- mum of 21.6°C in 1992 and reached a maxi- age annual rainfall at Attock over last five mum of 24.8°C in 1998.

2000 26

25 1500

24

1000 23

500 22

21 0 20 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

Figure 2. Mean annual rainfall (mm) at Attock site (1948-2005) Figure 4. Mean annual temperature (°C) at Attock site (1947-2000) 67 MUHAMMAD AZEEM KHAN ET AL. Area, Production and Yield of Major Crops (Table 2). Rainfall was a significant factor Data of mean area, production and yield of crop production, as for Kohat district of major crops of selected districts over last correlations between mean seasonal rain- three decades revealed that negative fall and area, as well as rainfall and pro- changes have occurred in area and produc- duction of major crops was moderately tion of wheat crop in Kohat district; however, positive and significant. Similarly for an improvement in yield has taken place. Attock district, correlation between mean This scenario is opposite in Attock district, seasonal rainfall and production of wheat where an increase in wheat area and pro- crop was moderately positive and statisti- duction has occurred with a decrease in cally significant. Moreover, correlations wheat yield of 13.2% during 1991-2000 between seasonal rainfall and area as well (Table 1). The area under groundnut crop, as production of groundnut were moder- in Kohat district, showed a decrease of ately positive and statistically significant. 23.5% if we compare average area of 2001- This means that an increase in rainfall 2008 with that of 1981-90. However, contributes positively towards area under changes in production (increase of 14.3%) major crops and their production and vice- and yield (increase of 49.3%) were positive versa. during the same period. While in Attock district, increase in area under groundnut General Features of the Study Sites crop was 59.0% with increase in production The demographic characteristics of of 11.9% and a decline in yield of 29.6%. the study area and community represen- Bivariate correlations between area, tatives’ perceptions about these charac- production and yield of major crops, and teristics revealed that total area of Kohat mean seasonal temperature were weak and site, including residential areas, farm statistically insignificant at both sites lands, forest lands, grazing lands and Table 1. Area, production and yield of wheat and groundnut Kohat Attock Year Area Production Yield Area Production Yield (000ha) (000t) (tha-1) (000ha) (000t) (tha-1) Wheat 1981-90 54.2 43.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1991-2000 51.0(-59) 40.9(0.69) 0.8(0.0) 1.5(60.0) 1.9(38.8) 1.3(-13.2) 2001-2008 28.5(-47.4) 28.5(-34.9) 1.0(23.6) 1.2 (23.0) 1.5(6.8) 1.3(-13.2) Groundnut 1981-90 190.6 196.8 1.0 17.5 17.4 1.0 1991-2000 174.3 (-836) 199.5(1.4) 1.1(10.9) 21.4(22.7) 20.9(20.4) 1.0(-1.9) 2001-2008 145.9(-23.5) 225.0(14.3) 1.5(49.3) 27.8(59.0) 19.4(11.9) 0.7(-29.6) Table 2. Bivariate correlation Kohat Association Attock Association Wheat Area and temperature -0.12 (0.532) Weak -0.10 (0.584) Weak Production and temperature -0.27 (0.149) Weak -0.17 (0.371) Weak Area and rainfall 0.50 (0.004)** Moderate 0.16 (0.401) Weak production and rainfall 0.66 (0.000)** Moderate 0.50 (0.005)** Moderate Groundnut Area and temperature -0.25 (0.165) Weak -0.25 (0.165) Weak Production and temperature -0.28 (0.122) Weak -0.28 (0.122) Weak area and rainfall 0.36 (0.044)* Moderate 0.36 (0.044)* Moderate Production and rainfall 0.41 (0.018)* Moderate 0.42 (0.018)* Moderate Figures in parenthesis are two tailed significance ** and * = significant at 1% and 5% levels, respectively.

68 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE shamlats (government owned lands) was population of cattle at both sites, while a 17940.3 acres and of Attock was 38176.3 minor increase in number of buffalo popu- acres (Table 3). According to farmers’ per- lation at Attock was reported (Table 4). An ception minor increases in geographic ar- increase in number of goats at both sites eas, numbers of landless households and and number of sheep at Kohat was per- small farmers have occurred over last 30 ceived over last three decades. Farmers years (1980 onwards) at both sites. How- perceived a minor increase in number of ever, at Kohat number of both medium and poultry birds at Attock, while no change at large farmers decreased while at Attock Kohat. As described earlier (Table 1) that number of medium farmers remained con- due to increase in mean annual tempera- stant and that of large farmers decreased tures and irregular rains patterns, a de- over time. These results indicate that law crease in area under major crops at Kohat of inheritance in particular and environ- site and in productivity of major crop at mental harshness in general has resulted Attock have occurred. Thus, people’s de- in to a decrease number of medium and pendence on livestock farming has in- large farmers and an increase in number creased, as increase in number of small of small and tenant farmers over time. ruminants at Kohat site and number of At Kohat, 77% and at Attock 80% of the buffaloes, goats and poultry birds at Attock households are engaged in farming. At was perceived. Kohat, respondents perceived no change in number of households having farming as Sources of Irrigation primary occupation. However, a minor in- At Kohat, wells and ponds were the crease in number of labourers and major main sources of irrigation at all farm types. increases in number of businessmen and Small farmers at Kohat had access to two people in public/ private services were re- wells and two ponds and reported that their ported. At Attock, minor increases in num- access to wells had decreased to some ex- ber of farming and business households and tent over last 30 years (Table 5). Medium major increases in number of labourers and farmers had access to two wells, one servicemen were observed (Table 3). tubewell, one pond and two mini dams. Livestock Population They reported that their access to wells had Farmers perceived no change in the improved to some extent while remained

Table 3. Demographic features of the study sites and community representatives’ perception about primary occupations Kohat Attock Categories # Perception # Perception Tenant/ landless HH 128 (23%) 1 93 (20%) 1 Small farmers (0-2 ha) 170 (31%) 1 140 (30%) 1 Medium farmers (2-4 ha) 110 (20%) -1 170 (37%) 0 Large farmers (>4 ha) 146 (26%) -1 60 (13%) -1 Primary occupations of people Agriculture - 0 - 1 Labor - 1 - 2 Business - 2 - 1 Service - 2 - 2 -2=major decrease, -1=minor decrease, 0= no change, +1 = minor increase, +2=major increase

69 MUHAMMAD AZEEM KHAN ET AL. unchanged to other sources of irrigation. tive, self help groups, panchayats, health At this location, large farmers had access centres, veterinary hospitals and banks to four wells, two ponds and one mini dam. were accessible to the farmers. However, They reported no change in their access to secondary schools were non accessible to these sources of irrigation over time. the farm families at this site. There were At Attock, farmers’ access to irrigation nine milk collection centres at this site. sources was quite better than at the Kohat. Farmers perceived a minor increase in Small farmers had access to 12 wells, 6 number of milk collection centers, ponds and one mini dam. They reported a panchayats, secondary schools health cen- minor improvement in their access to wells tres, veterinary hospitals and banks at and ponds over time. Medium farmers had Attock over last 30 years. access to 30 wells and 6 ponds at this site Agricultural extension department is and they reported a minor improvement in the institution that can create awareness their access to these irrigation sources. among farmers and train them regarding Large farmers had access to 39 wells, one the environmental issues. So this depart- tubewell and one mini dam. They perceived ment should play a very active role in teach- a minor increase in number of accessible ing farmers about adoption strategies to wells and ponds and major increase in cope environmental changes. Moreover, number of accessible tube wells over time. farmer cooperatives and self help groups are the institutions which can be used by ag- Farmers’ Access to Different Institutions ricultural extension department for speedy One each of farmer cooperatives, self transfer of knowledge to the farming com- help groups, panchayats, secondary schools munities. and health centres were accessible to the farmers at Kohat site (Table 6). They per- Labor Availability, Information Flow and ceived a minor increase in number of Farm Characteristics farmer cooperatives and secondary schools At Kohat most of the farmers (63%) over time. However, veterinary hospitals while at Attock site majority of them (42%) and banks were non accessible to farmers reported easy availability of farm labour. here. Majority of small farmers and most of the At Attock, one each of farmer coopera- medium & large farmers reported ease in

Table 4. Livestock holding of the surveyed household Livestock Kohat Attock population Population No. per HH Perception Population No. per HH Perception Cattle 583 1.1 0 2233 4.8 0 Buffaloes 0 0.0 0 1485 3.2 1 Goats 1800 3.2 1 5483 11.8 1 Sheep 842 1.5 1 3000 6.5 0 Poultry 3088 5.6 0 17220 37.2 1 2 = major decrease, -1= minor decrease, 0 = no change, +1 = minor increase, +2 = major increase

Table 5. Sources of irrigations Kohat Attock Source Small Medium Large Small Medium Large farmers farmers farmers farmers farmers farmers # Percep. # Percep. # Percep. # Percep. # Percep. # Percep. Wells 2 -1 2 1 4 0 12 1 30 1 39 1 Tubewells 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 Ponds 2 0 1 0 2 0 6 1 6 1 6 1 Mini dams 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -2= major decrease, 1= indicate decrease, 0= no change, +1= minor increase,+2= major increase

70 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE labour availability. Farmers at both sites Livelihood Impact of Climate Change reported minor improvement in the Most of the farmers at both study sites availablity of both farm and non-farm labour reported change in climate over time. (Table 7). At both study sites, majority of Farmers at Kohat reported a major change the farmers reported minor improvement in climate; while at Attock, they reported in information flow over time. Majority of moderate change in climate (Table 8). Due the small farmers at Kohat reported minor to climate change, a great un- increase in cultivable area; however, at sustainability in production practices was Attock small farmers reported no change reported by farmers at Kohat. While at in cultivable area. Some of the medium Attock, farmers reported that it has not af- farmers at both sites reported minor in- fected production practices. Small farmers crease in cultivable area. Large farmers at at both site and large farmers at Attock Kohat reported no change in cultivable area reported that climate change has not af- over time while at Attock they reported fected water management practices as major increase in cultivable area. At Kohat, these remain sustainable over time. majority of small and medium farmers re- While medium farmers at both sites and ported minor, while large farmers reported large farmers at Kohat reported that change major increase in farm mechanization. At in climate had resulted into un- Attock, most of the all types of farmers re- sustainability in water management prac- ported major increase in farm mechaniza- tices. Farmers did not report any change tion over time. None of the farmers at Kohat in their investments in water harvesting and some (3%) perceived minor increase at both sites. in the availability of irrigation water over Farmers reported a moderate increase time (Table 7). in deforestation at Kohat, while a minor

Table 6. Farm families’ access to different institutions Institutional Kohat Attock involment Number Perception Number Perception Farmer cooperatives 1 1 1 0 Self help groups 1 0 1 0 Panchayat 101 1 Secondary school 0 1 1 0 Health centres 1 0 1 1 Veterinary hospitals 0 0 1 1 Banks (Regional, 0 0 1 1 rural, privates) Milk collection centres 0 0 9 1 2 = major decrease, -1= minor indicate decrease, 0= no change, +1= minor increase,+2= major increase

Table 7. Labor availability, information flow and farm characteristics (% farmers) Farm and other attributes Kohat Attock Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Availability of farm labor 63 (1) 66 (1) 61 (1) 36 (1) 48 (1) 42 (1) Availability of off-farm labor 43 (1) 55 (1) 55 (2) 48 (1) 50 (2) 50 (1) Information flow 34 (1) 34 (1) 50 (1) 48 (1) 37 (1) 45 (1) Increase in cultivable area 39 (1) 23 (1) 26 (0) 28 (0) 8 (1) 19 (2) Farm mechanization 31 (1) 41 (1) 41 (2) 58 (2) 55 (2) 61 (2) Availability of irrigation water 0 (0) 16 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 3 (1) 5 (0) 2= major Figures in parenthesis are farmers perceptions decrease, -1 = minor indicate decrease, 0= no change, +1= minor increase,+2 = major increase

71 MUHAMMAD AZEEM KHAN ET AL. Table 8. Livelihood impact of climate change (% farmers) Kohat Attock Variable Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Climate change 92 (2) 93 (2) 93 (2) 71 (2) 82 (1) 80 (0) Unsustainable production practices 36 (1) 21(1) 20 (1) 38 (0) 28 (0) 26 (0) Unsustainable water management 12 (0) 36 (1) 23 (1) 15 (0) 23 (1) 8 (0) Deforestation 25 (0) 20 (1) 15 (2) 47 (1) 51 (1) 35 (1) Change in land use 18 (1) 41 (2) 27 (2) 33 (1) 40 (1) 50 (0) Demographic pressure 43 (1) 46 (2) 17 (2) 40 (1) 50 (1) 48 (1) Poverty 62 (0) 43 (2) 9 (2) 56 (0) 35 (0) 20 (1) Government intervention 21(1) 25 (2) 15 (0) 11 (0) 10 (1) 15 (0) Figures in parenthesis are farmers perceptions -2 = major decrease, -1= minor decrease, 0= no change, +1= minor increase ,+2= major increase increase in deforestation at Attock. The Effect of Climate Change on Income Ac- reasons of deforestation was long spell of tivities dry periods and decrease in productivity of One fifth to one third of the farmers major crops at Kohat, and start of poultry reported increase in migration of people to farming by the people at Attock. Because, earn livelihood due to climatic variation in poultry farming wood is not only used for (Table 9). Small and large farmers at Kohat construction of sheds but also as fuel to reported a major increase in migration over keep sheds warm in winter. time. While medium farmers at Kohat and Farmers reported minor decrease in all types of farmers at Attock reported mi- the area of wheat, groundnut, millet and nor increase in migration of people to other sorghum crops at Kohat and millet and areas in search of jobs due to climatic ef- mustard crops at Attock over time. While a fects. Some of the farmers also reported minor increase in fallow area was reported changes in their occupations due to cli- at both sites. Small farmer at both sites matic variations at both sites. However, reported a minor change in land use pat- they perceived a minor type of change in tern. While medium farmers at Kohat re- occupations of people. At Kohat about 10% ported a major change and at Attock a mi- farmers and at Attock one third to one half nor change in land use pattern. Large farm- of the farmers reported an increase in op- ers reported a major change in land use erational land at their farms over time to pattern at Kohat and no change at Attock. meet their subsistence (Table 9). However, Incidence of poverty was highest among the they perceived this increase in operational small farmers and there was an inverse area as a minor change. At Kohat about relationship between farm size and poverty one-third of the small and medium farm- at both sites. ers and two-third of the large farmers re-

Table 9. Change in income activities (% farmers) Attribute Kohat Attock Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Change in migration 22 (2) 23 (1) 17 (2) 33 (1) 26 (1) 13 (1) Change in occupation 15 (1) 11 (1) 26 (1) 27 (1) 31 (1) 21(1) Change in operational Size 10 (1) 12 (1) 9 (1) 43 (1) 35 (1) 33 (1) Change in livestock population 30 (0) 30 (0) 60 (0) 48 (1) 50 (1) 34 (1) Figures in parenthesis are farmers perceptions -2 = major decrease, -1= minor decrease, 0= no change, +1 = minor increase,+2= major increase

72 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ported a decrease in livestock population farm activities and reduction in consump- at their farms. However, they perceived tion expenditures as the main coping that change in livestock population was of mechanisms. Medium farmers at this site minor type. While, at Attock about half of reported occasional sale of livestock, reduc- the small and medium farmers and one- tion in consumption expenditures and use third of the large farmers reported an in- of previous cash saving as main coping crease in livestock population at their strategies. Large farmers reported borrow- farms. Farmers perceived this increase in ing, change in date of farm operations (sow- livestock population as a minor change. ing date and input application) and occa- sional sale of livestock as main mecha- Coping Strategies nisms to cope environmental hostilities. Adoption of coping strategies to miti- It is therefore concluded that in the gate effects of climate changes mainly de- semi-arid tropics of the country, farmers pends on the socioeconomic characteris- are well aware of the environmental tics of the farmers. Different copping strat- changes happening around and have their egies were adopted by farmers (Table 10). own strategies to cope up with the chal- As the incidence of poverty was more at lenges brought by these environmental dis- Kohat, thus small farmers here reported re- turbances. Farming is the major occupa- duction in consumption expenditures, mi- tion at the study sites and most of the fami- gration for employment in non-farm activi- lies depend on it for their subsistence. The ties and sale of livestock as main coping environmental disturbances viz., changes strategies. Main strategies reported by in the temperature and rainfall patterns medium farmers at this site were reduc- have essential role in the development and tion in consumption expenditures, occa- growth of the crops. Change in the rainfall sional sale of livestock and change in patterns during the last few decades has choice of crops and time of farm operations adversely affected the area and productiv- e.g. land preparation and fertilizer applica- ity of major crops (wheat and groundnut) in tion. Large farmers at Kohat reported oc- the semi-arid areas of Kohat and Attock. casional sale of livestock, borrowing and The food security situation is alarming and use of cash saving as the main coping strat- vulnerability of farm families has in- egies to face the vagaries of environment. creased. Dependency of farm families on At Attock, small farmers reported sale livestock and off-farm sources of income is of livestock followed by migration for non increasing as the crop sector is unable to Table 10. Coping strategies (% farmers) Mechanism Kohat Attock

Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Borrowing 4 (0) 10 (0) 47 (1) 7 (1) 18 (1) 35 (1) Migration for non farm activity 25 (1) 21 (2) 32 (1) 38 (1) 22 (1) 20 (1) Shift to new crop suitable for new climate patterns 8 (0) 2 (0) 16 (0) 2 (0) 2 (0) 15 (1) Partial sale of assets 11 (1) 9 (1) 27 (1) 22 (1) 21 (1) 28 (1) Increase of mixed crops 6 (0) 6 (0) 27 (1) 9 (1) 8 (1) 17 (1) Change in date of operation 14 (0) 28 (1) 31 (1) 13 (1) 21 (2) 34 (1) Use previous cash saving 8 (1) 11 (0) 45 (1) 5 (0) 25 (1) 20 (1) Reduce consumption expenditure 26 (0) 40 (0) 21 (0) 36 (0) 29 (0) 8 (0) Sale of livestock 20 (0) 32 (0) 50 (1) 46 (1) 35 (1) 30 (1) Figures in parenthesis are farmers perceptions *-2 major decrease, -1= minor decrease, 0 no change, +1= minor increase,+2= major increase 73 MUHAMMAD AZEEM KHAN ET AL. fulfill the livelihood needs of increasing WPdirect/WPre0111.htm) population. People have opted to adopt off- GoP, 2010. Pakistan Meteorological Depart- farm employment opportunities to retain ment, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad. their livelihood mostly away from their GoP, 2009. Agricultural Statistics of Paki- native areas. Pressure on community for- stan (Various Issues), Ministry of Food ests for fuel wood and forages is mounting and Agriculture (Economic Wing), day by day. One of the reasons is increase Islamabad in number of poultry farmers in the semi- GoP, 2001. Crop Area and Production by Dis- arid areas. Although, people are well aware tricts (Various Issues). Ministry of Food, of the climate change and its impacts on Livestock and Agriculture. Economic the productivity of crops and their liveli- Wing, Islamabad. hood; however, agricultural extension de- Kureshy, K. U. 1998. , partment should train them about strate- National Book Service Lahore, Pakistan. gies to mitigate environmental harshness. Lani, J. 2008. Bivariate Correlations. http:/ Farmer cooperatives and self help groups /statisticssolutions.blogspot.com/2008/ are the institutions which can be used by 12/bivariate-correlations- agricultural extension department for continued.html speedy transfer of knowledge to the farm- Luo, Q. and Lin, E. 1999. Agricultural vul- ing communities. Research institutes nerability and adaptation in developing should produce new drought resistant va- countries: the -Pacific region. Cli- rieties of the crops. Forest department matic Change 43: 729-743. should create awareness in the rural com- Merttler, C. A. and Vannatta, R. A. 2005. munities of semiarid tropics of Pakistan Advanced and multivariate statistical about the importance of forest resources. methods: Practical application and in- District governments should endeavor to terpretation (3rd edn.). Los Angelets, CA: provide alternate sources of energy to re- Pyrczak. duce the pressure on forest reserves. Com- Sivakumar, M.V.K. 1998. Climate varibility munity lands should be identified and for- and food vulnertability: Global Change est trees should be planted. To increase the News. (IGBP) 35:14-17. productivity of livestock, farmers should UNDP, 2010. Environment and Energy. also be taught to plant palatable shrubs and United Nations Development forage trees in rain catchments. Aware- Programme, Pakistan. http:// ness about bee keeping, mushroom farm- un.org.pk/undpnew// ing should also be generated in people, as index.php?option=com_content&task= these could be very good income generat- view&id =18&Itemid =36. ing activities for them. Wikipedia, 2011. Climate of Pakistan. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ LITERATURE CITED Climate_of_Pakistan. FAO, 1995. Asia’s women in agriculture, Watts, M. and Goodman (eds.), 1997.Globalizing environment and rural production: food: agrarian questions and global re- Pakistan.(http://www.fao.org/sd/ structuring, London, Rutledge.

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