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December 23, 2015 December 23, 2015 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) POSCO (005490/Buy/TP: W225,000) Lower TP KOSPI 1,999.22 6.66 0.33 Near-term momentum vs. structural headwinds KOSPI 200 246.53 1.05 0.43 KOSDAQ 659.60 -3.82 -0.58 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 487,032 3,918 KOSPI 200 62,154 2,496 KOSDAQ 764,164 3,727 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,266,121 KOSDAQ 192,869 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 743 751 -8 Institutional 1,011 572 440 Retail 2,088 2,574 -486 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 149 137 12 Institutional 104 109 -5 Retail 3,470 3,466 3 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 902 548 354 KOSDAQ 64 52 13 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 417 385 77 KOSDAQ 464 589 80 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 10,160 165 294 Samsung Electronics 1,295,000 3,000 210 SunnyElec 6,700 -370 175 Hynix 32,700 500 164 Hanchang 5,260 1,135 163 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value AHNLAB 80,400 1,100 424 NTPIA 3,270 45 219 BARUN 3,860 260 151 CCS Cable TV 2,090 130 111 Digital Chosun 5,820 -210 88 Note: As of December 23, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. POSCO (005490 KS) Near-term momentum vs. structural headwinds Steel 4Q15 preview: Poor earnings delivery to continue Poor earnings delivery to continue: We expect POSCO to report another disappointing Earnings Preview performance in 4Q15, with non-consolidated operating profit of W453bn (-28.9% QoQ, December 23, 2015 -28.3% YoY) and consolidated operating profit of W508.2bn (-22.0% QoQ, -33.5% YoY)—23.7% and 19.6% below consensus estimates, respectively. The steelmaker will likely swing to a pretax profit QoQ on smaller non-recurring losses, but the absolute figure should be modest at W219.8bn. (Maintain) Buy Weak earnings attributable to market deterioration: We see POSCO’s production costs Target Price (12M, W) 225,000 falling by W13,000/tonne QoQ in 4Q15. However, ASP is expected to fall more sharply (by W36,000/tonne QoQ) due to overall market deterioration, causing margin s to Share Price (12/22/15, W) 173,000 contract. We also see risks of additional losses from investment assets, which could limit upside to pretax profit. Expected Return 30% Near-term momentum vs. structural headwinds Commodity prices determine share price : For POSCO and its affiliates, profits are tied to OP (15F, Wbn) 2,578 the prices of steel and other commodities. And the prices of steel, iron ore, oil, and Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 2,704 nickel not only determine the performance of POSCO’s core business, they also determine the size of the company’s investment losses as well as its subsidiaries’ profits . EPS Growth (15F, %) -71.4 Simply put, the company has a poorly diversified business structure. Therefore, Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 22.5 commodity prices need to rise in order for the stock to recover. P/E (15F, x) 84.3 Market P/E (15F, x) 11.5 Potential for near-term rebound: China’s small steel mills are aggressively cutting KOSPI 1,992.56 production, pressured by tight liquidity and deteriorating margins. Small steelmakers’ utilization rate has plummeted to 54%, and only 4.3% of Chinese steelmakers are Market Cap (Wbn) 15,083 currently making profits. As a result, steel prices have been rebounding in the past Shares Outstanding (mn) 87 month, and the spread between steel prices and raw material prices has widened 7.5%, Free Float (%) 82.2 which could catalyze a near-term rebound in share price. Foreign Ownership (%) 47.4 Beta (12M) 0.94 But structural headwinds will limit upside potential: As steel prices and margins pick up, 52-Week Low 162,000 Chinese firms are likely to resume production. This, in turn, is likely to reverse the rise in steel prices at a time when demand remains muted. Yuan depreciation is another risk 52-Week High 290,500 that could weigh on the steel market. At the company level, subsidiary-related losses, (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M the possibility of the Indonesia steel mill raising capital, and potential losses from t he Absolute 1.8 -23.1 -40.2 Brazil blast furnace following its launch in 2Q16 are also likely to pressure shares in the Relative 1.6 -20.7 -41.7 coming year. 130 POSCO KOSPI Maintain Buy, but Cut TP by 10% to W225,000 110 We reduced our 2015 and 20 16 net profit estimates by 15.6% and 24.9%, respectively, but are lowering our target price by a more modest 10% (P/B of 0.45x) to account for 90 the company’s liquidation value. Through 2Q16, we expect shares to show a pattern of 70 short-term rebounds followed by short-term pullbacks. We think investors should look 50 to 2H16, when the decline in China’s demand is likely to slow and steel prices are 12.14 4.15 8.15 12.15 expected to more meaningfully pick up. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 63,604 61,865 65,098 59,145 58,052 66,140 [Steel/Non-ferrous metal] OP (Wbn) 3,653 2,996 3,214 2,578 2,596 3,289 Seung-hun Jeon OP margin (%) 5.7 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.5 5.0 +822-768-2713 NP (Wbn) 2,462 1,376 626 179 1,103 1,908 [email protected] EPS (W) 28,239 15,787 7,181 2,052 12,656 21,883 ROE (%) 6.3 3.4 1.5 0.4 2.7 4.5 P/E (x) 12.4 20.7 38.4 84.3 13.7 7.9 P/B (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Key Universe Valuations December 23, 2015 ※All data as of close December 22, 2015, unless otherwise noted. 16F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 005930 Samsung Electronics 190,753 1,295,000 2.1 2.2 5.1 5.3 7.6 10.1 9.4 1.1 1.0 11.7 11.4 005380 Hyundai Motor 33,372 151,500 3.3 15.6 -1.2 12.6 1.1 5.7 5.7 0.6 0.6 11.4 10.5 015760 KEPCO 32,291 50,300 3.0 8.3 0.5 -46.9 -1.5 4.8 4.9 0.4 0.4 9.8 8.9 012330 Hyundai Mobis 24,385 250,500 1.4 15.0 7.2 22.5 5.8 6.5 6.1 0.8 0.7 13.4 12.6 090430 AmorePacific 24,231 414,500 0.3 33.4 31.0 25.2 31.7 36.9 28.0 6.9 5.7 20.6 22.3 000660 SK Hynix 23,806 32,700 1.2 -21.9 10.7 -22.9 11.3 7.1 6.4 0.9 0.8 14.1 13.8 051910 LG Chem 22,499 339,500 1.2 10.2 23.4 28.4 24.2 15.7 12.7 1.7 1.6 11.5 12.9 032830 Samsung Life 21,900 109,500 - - - - 0.0 0.0 000270 Kia Motors 21,890 54,000 2.5 27.7 14.0 25.8 10.9 5.8 5.3 0.8 0.7 14.2 13.9 035420 NAVER 21,525 653,000 0.2 33.3 22.4 35.7 21.6 29.1 23.9 5.5 4.5 27.7 26.0 018260 Samsung SDS 19,731 255,000 0.2 12.2 1381.5 8.3 1338.7 41.1 2.9 4.0 1.7 10.1 82.3 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 19,395 40,900 - - - - 0.0 0.0 017670 SK Telecom 18,773 232,500 4.3 4.8 1.4 0.4 1.8 11.3 11.1 1.0 1.0 10.1 9.7 034730 SK Holdings 18,645 265,000 0.8 9.0 13.4 4.3 -49.4 21.9 43.2 3.4 3.2 19.8 8.9 051900 LG Household & Health Care 16,165 1,035,000 0.5 21.6 16.8 22.7 18.6 31.1 26.2 7.0 5.6 25.7 24.4 005490 POSCO 15,606 179,000 3.4 0.7 26.7 516.9 72.9 14.1 8.2 0.4 0.3 2.7 4.5 033780 KT&G 15,239 111,000 3.2 -4.9 0.7 -9.4 2.0 16.0 15.6 2.2 2.0 14.7 13.9 000810 Samsung F&M 15,136 319,500 - - - - 0.0 0.0 105560 KB Financial Group 13,213 34,200 - - - - 0.0 0.0 003550 LG Corp.
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