The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll

for the week of September 10

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Texas in November?

• "Just don't think Paul can get it Texas) has heard of, take the R to done" win."

• "Maybe you should have asked • "Probably Cruz, but once people who's the better candidate?" other than the right wing sliver of the republican party who nominated him • "Sadler's vote record in the TX see who he is, Sadler might actually House isn't conservative." have a chance"

• "Just voting with my heart. Paul • "No money. No focus by the party. Sadler would be light years better The state is not in play in the than Ted Cruz in public service." presidential. Poor Paul is not in play."

• "Barring a John Tower incident, but • "John Cornyn is about to look he will get closer than the sensible by comparison." conventional wisdom" • "It may be closer than you think but • "Seriously, guys. We may have to the anti-Obama sentiment will put rename the survey to 'Stupid Cruz over the line" Intelligence.'" • "No contest" • "Should there be an uprising that does not appear imminent Koch and • "There are few sure things in life. the Crossroads would be in here as Ted Cruz winning is one of them." soon as the Mad Hatter said, ' Down with the bloody Red Queen! '" • "This was a question worthy of Inside Intelligence assessment?" • "A good guy with no money cannot beat a unknown guy with lot of • "Paul who?" money." • "Paul Sadler needs to get himself a • "Minimum 10 point win" white pickup truck and start touring the state if he wants a shot of at least • "No one knows who Sadler is, having a chance at winning." outside of the capitol crowd." • "Is this really a question?" • "Sadler gets a little redneck vote that normally goes Republican, and Cruz • "Cruz 56-Sadler 44. And again, the siphons off some Hispanic Ds, better man does not win." creating a wash. My guess is a 10-12 point win." • "If Sadler had a little more money he could at least make for an interesting • "In the race between the Republican campaign." who Paul Sadler claims nobody really knows and the Democrat nobody • "Do you even need to ask?" (outside of a small patch of East

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 • "Noriega lost by nearly 1 million • "Cruz will have all of the votes. Cutting that by 30% isn't even a enthusiasm and money behind him. remote possibility." The National Dems don't even believe Sadler has a chance." • "Sadler is fool, got beat in his home town in school board race" • "Sadler might get 1% more that the base D vote due to a few moderates." • "But Sadler will fare better than expected. Cruz's style is turning as many people off as he's turning on."

Do Texas Democrats have a better chance at a comeback under an Obama or a Romney administration?

• "Just look at the comeback by • "Democrats are better off if Romney Republicans under Obama (with the wins. All of us know that the economy exception of scattered local offices and all of America's ills cannot be particularly in the Dallas area)." fixed in one term. This time it'll be a Republican problem." • "The longer Obama remains president the worse off all centralist • "That's a really good question. It democrats are." would be 'easier' under a Romney administration as long as he didn't • "They have a better chance at a reap the benefits a recovery driven by comeback under a Perry the current economic policies. But administration." would better for Texas under and Obama administration as Texas • "Texas Democrats will come back, Republicans would keep opposing but they will come back through the policies that disproportionately helps Republican primaries. Texas Texas families." Democrats have never been liberals; they are just more rational in their • "If the Ryan budget were actually conservatism. The bigger the enacted, the backlash could Republican Party gets, the less reinvigorate the Ds." Republican it will be." • "Mostly the comeback, whenever • "Burning the village in order to save that actually occurs, will be based on it is a failed, literally pyrrhic strategy" inexorable demographic change."

• "Probably slightly better with a • "I think we will be a red state for the Romney admin, along with a strong term of either." GOP US House, as a foil on immigration and other issues -- they • "Texas Ds remain in an Catch-22 on need some defining moment to finally issues. Do they embrace the national hit their tipping point on broad Latino party (which has many planks that voter engagement." just don't play with most voters in

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Texas) or do they break away to the Ds can bring something to the table, right (making them no different than then they ain't gonna eat." an R)?" • "The D's must get rid of Obama • "They’re out either way - for at least before a conversation can be started a decade more." about a 'comeback' in Texas."

• "Texas Democrats won't make a • "No plan, no bench, no hope for a comeback until they wean themselves quick (like 10 years long) turnaround." off trial lawyer money." • "The Democrats don't care and the • "In the short term, an Obama Republicans don't have to care." presidency will continue to mobilize conservatives, leading to another • "Julian and Joaquin Castro are successful mid-term cycle. However, absolutely stars and are the future of if Obama pays it forward and features the Party, but the future is a long way Latinos prominently in his off." administration during his second term, it could help to mobilize an • "Neither. I doubt the Democrats will emerging base that will carry have an opportunity for a comeback Democrats to victory for many cycles in Texas for many years." to come." • "It's always easier to run against the • "Democrats have no comeback shortcomings of the opposition hopes carrying Obama on their backs" incumbent than to run with the shortcomings of your own party's • "They won't be coming back during incumbent." either administration" • "Pendulum has swung and is hitting • "Perry has a better chance of the right side of the clock. Democrats creating a Democratic comeback..." won't pull it back, Republicans will push it away, especially as moderates • "Under Romney, Democrats would like Romney demonstrate that have short-term gains in 2014; but a participation requires allegiance to Romney packed Supreme Court right-wing principles they don't would severely roll back minority share." voting rights for decades." • "All politics is local, and until the • "Are they still a political party?" Democrats get a cohesive message they will remain the minority party." • "It doesn't matter who's at the helm; if Texas voters aren't convinced that

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Republicans have been in charge of state government in Texas for a decade. What's their weak spot?

• "If Republicans would stay out of • "All the above, but pub ed has people's bedrooms and religious grassroots constituencies that are beliefs, they would sweep the nation more readily galvanizable;" but they keep promoting boneheads like Akin. Similarly, if Democrats • "Increasing incompetence and would quit whining and taking flaccidity of Perry appointments money from working people to give to across all agencies/issues -- they're deadbeats, they would sweep." down to their C list and falling fast. The only qualifications are loyalty and • "The GOP's weak spot is all of the (preferably) minority status, but the above." real credential is loyal lackeyism -- and that combined with decreasing • "Arrogance! They have been in political adeptness will bite Perry on charge, yet continue to blame the butt in time." Democrats for what is wrong with Texas! The republicans have ruined • "Digging an ever deeper hole for our out state and taken it light years into state." the past!!" • "All of our problems are caused by • "Denial" the budget and taxes. We spend too much and have too little." • "All of them. The numbers show that by any measure that the state is • "Their weak spot? They don't want worse off in each one of these to pay for anything. They portray categories." themselves as opposing services. So if they had the money they wouldn't • "Weak spot from whose want to spend it even though Texas perspective? Tea Partiers and current unemployment suffers from conservatives? Budget and taxes. cutbacks in public services. As Alice Democrats and Liberals? All of the said, ' Of all the silly nonsense, this is above, plus abortion." the stupidest tea party I've ever been to in all my life.' Major Jack D Ripper • "Texas government must pay the : Mandrake, do you recall what bills without new taxes. That's the Clemenceau once said about war? greatest challenge regardless of Captain Lionel Mandrake : No, I don't party." think I do, sir, no. Major Jack D Ripper: He said war was too • "Their weak spot is a lack of balance. important to be left to the generals. It permeates every aspect of state But today, war is too important to be government. The Republican party left to politicians. They have neither will either become very small and the time, the training, nor the very radical, or it will become more inclination for strategic thought.' moderate (keeping in mind that in Empower Texas would make a great Texas, moderate is conservative)." movie title.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= • "The lack of turn over at the top of N1KvgtEnABY&feature=related" the ticket. It doesn't matter who holds office if they are there long enough • "Immigration" some voters will cast a ballot for the other party just because they are • "This is a close call with business experiencing incumbent fatigue." leaders becoming fundamentally uncomfortable with the direction of • "All of the above - governing seems public education in the state but I to be a weak spot" think women voters will stun Republicans with a much more short • "They’re just governing ok, but term rebuke in the next two cycles there's no weak spot." because of their decisions on women's health care." • "Why no 'All of the above' option? They are potentially weak on all of • "All of the above could have been a these... if the Ds can develop a correct answer." coherent message with some solid messengers." • "Lack of vision in dealing with problems unrelated to commerce, • "I would say, all four" other than simply not raising public revenues or investing in foundation • "I can only pick one? It all starts programs listed in choices." with the budget and taxes -- namely, the fiction that you can get something • "All of the above. The shale drilling for nothing." boom is masking a lot of long-term problems." • "You should have given us the choice of all of the above" • "The infrastructure deficits probably eke out over education, because • "Where's the button that says all of they're so in-your-face. When your the above?" lake is a dust-filled crater and your roads are hopelessly jammed, there's • "Can’t keep cutting school budgets, no real debate about whether we've where the rubber meets the road back done enough." home."

• "Because of the creative way they • "Republicans are failing to plan for have handled the budget, the rank future Texans. The current state and file R's are going to have to decide political leadership has absolutely no ---help the people they represent or vision or sense of responsibility to vote the way the party tells them to." future generations. Their only devotion is to the next day's stories • "The political pendulum eventually and their own political advancement." swings back the other way. But if I'm a D, I've got to start wondering when • "We have to pick just one?" that might be," • "All of the above.... debt for highways, water shortages, children's

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 health, sorry education system.... what The biggest weak spot in the R's have they missed..." program is failure to do what conservatives used to be known for: • "The top weak spot, but there are the long view. Healthier kids are others" easier to educate and don't stay at home sick, meaning they stay in • "Everything." school and don't go to prison as much; healthy parents don't miss as much • "Really it's all connected. There's no work, staying off welfare; and the comprehensive vision for having a societal cost of not addressing the reliable state revenue stream, no plan basic needs of a potential workforce for how to raise revenue without far outweigh the direct dollar cost in putting an increasingly the long run." disproportionate share of the burden on low income working Texans and • "For whatever reason, Republicans no awareness that over time this may hate Public Schools. And when they lead to the increasing irrelevance of cut even more money from Pub Ed the state government compared to this Session, they will lose seats." municipal and regional governmental and planning entities." • "It's not a policy weakness at all--it's demographics." • "Knowing how to balance the party rhetoric with the reality of what has • "A changing voting population that made the state great." just wants 'more stuff' from government and a Democrat Party • "All of the above, except state taxes" that will bend over backwards to provide 'more stuff' to buy the votes • "Health insurance - no plan for of these voters, regardless of the fiscal covering the millions of uninsured" impact on budgeting and tax burden. Republicans trying to be prudent in • "Education is their weak point. How spending and tax policies get many times has the state been sued hammered by the Democrat Party and under Perry and the Regime? Under their advocates in the media. That is Rs, the Education Code has increased what I think presents the greatest over 400 pages of unfunded challenge to Republicans going mandates. Standardized tests have not forward." proven successful for students as our dropout rates are still high and more • "Soccer moms get REAL pissed and more students are not college about bad education... and the ready." electorate just proved that there is not such thing as 'cutting too much' so it • "The state is growing yet the Rs in sure as hell ain't taxes." charge want to cut everything. That is a recipe for disaster." • "Reality. It used to be that Republicans fed red meat to primary • "Education is the most obvious voters, but governed with an interest choice, but neither party can claim in the future. Thanks to MQS, Perry, & ownership of leadership in this area.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 the TPPF they think their rhetoric is improves the education of our youth. reality. It's self-induced lunacy." What might be a problem down the road is if we are unable to continue to • "All of the above" attract new industry because we don't have the necessary water and • "Republicans have not been willing sufficient roads to get products to to pay for our growing needs. I agree market." with the need for more efficiency and cute; however, additional funding is a • "Privatized higher education tuition must." and now attempting to do the same with content. Privatized secondary • "Republicans looking beyond the 18 education content and now trying to month time horizon know full well do the same with tuition through that another session of education vouchers. It's not reform. It's budget cuts could unleash middle dystopia." class fury. There's a reason they've done everything possible to obfuscate • "The battle over school vouchers the truth about the damage - from could prove to be an interesting initial outright denial of cuts to the litmus test for the Republicans." current focus on expensive football stadiums." • "Social issues repugnant to the young" • "All statistical indicators show systemic failure in public schools" • "How about Education, Budget/taxes AND HHS." • "All of the above" • "All of the above." • "Many will say education, but there is no proof that spending more money

Where would you place the state's voters in comparison with the state's elected officials? Are voters:

• "Less conservative socially. About most issues, whereas folks in the the same or more conservative Panhandle are about as or more fiscally." conservative."

• "The Legislature, as a body, • "Texans are 'big-picture' probably reflects the state's voters. conservative, but when it comes down The statewide elected officials, to the details--the actual however, don't represent the voters implementation--they are more with liberal leanings." liberal. Big-picture conservatism is great for talking, but it's the details • "Depends on the issue(s) and part of that run things." state you're in. For example, folks in the Valley are less conservative on

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 • "Polling continues to corroborate votes Republican, most Texans are not that 'we' are more centrist than as extreme as the candidates coming leadership, who need only run in a out of the primary." handful of suburban, high turnout counties to prevail. This is especially • "Although the leg is conservative true re health and education issues" the reality is that people want their goose to lay their golden egg for their • "Speaking of actual voters who turn golden issue. One might be a fiscal out, about the same. But a lot of conservative but your golden issue is disengaged potential voters are less k - 12 education and you will tell the conservative or at least less leg they darn well better spend more ideologically lockstep, but they don't money on that. Take any issue, have good candidate options to substitute it for education and their express a fresh viewpoint." you have it, whether it be higher ed, roads, healthcare etc." • "Republican primary voters are more conservative than their • "Unless you are looking at Republican Officials. Democratic Republican primary voters." primary voters are more liberal than their Democrat officials. Independent • "Best thing about Austin: Drive 30 voters believe Republicans are a little minutes in any direction and you're less crazy than democrats." back in Texas. Those living in this city - including the media pundits from • "Lewis Carol wrote again The Mad major newspapers - could use a trip to Hatter: ' There is a place. Like no place the 'real' Texas every once in a while." on Earth. A land full of wonder, mystery, and danger! Some say to • "The electorate on the whole is less survive it: You need to be as mad as a conservative than the Republican hatter. ' It" primary voters who currently drive the process (but not yet liberal enough • "Depends on which voters. to elect Democrats statewide)." Republicans may be more conservative, pushing their candidates • "The officials match the voters - by further to the right -- and some day it definition. Anyone who says that will hurt them. Obviously, most Texans are more moderate (or more Democrats are less conservative." concerned about education, more tolerant on social issues, more • "But only the GOP primary matters" whatever) may be correct, but only if they are referring to Texans who don't • "I credit the leadership with some vote." tenuous grasp on reality. The voters -- at least Republican primary voters, • "Blind leading the blind." who control the state - not so much." • "The GOP primary is controlled by a • "The Republican primary, which is relatively small group of ultra dominated by the hard right, conservatives." determines who is elected statewide. While the overall Texas electorate

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 • "Less conservative, but not by much. designed to reveal more about the Heck, what we call Democrats in this respondent than it is to provide state, most of the remainder of the meaningful information." country calls Republicans." • "The 'VOTERS' are clearly as • "The bulk of the people who conservative as the elected officials.... disagree with the elected officials and the 'PEOPLE' are, however, not as the party line are cynical and don't conservative but they 'PEOPLE' vote or too busy trying to keep their clearly don't vote." heads above water to pay attention." • "Key word is 'voters.' But there is • "Maybe. Problem is that we really little question that Texans who don't know how conservative the participate in elections are more elected officials really are. Most conservative than those who do not." elected R's are reacting to the primary voters who are generally the most • "Voters are about as conservative, conservative of all, but are really not thus we elect conservative officials. reflective of the residents of the state The 'people' of Texas are less that consider themselves as R's or at conservative, but many do not vote." least conservatives." • "Well, the question is too broad for • "The general voting public is not the results to really tell you what you more conservative than our elected want to know. The GOP primary officials. The one in ten Texas voters voters driving the agenda are more who vote in the Republican primaries, conservative than most of their elected however, make Barry Goldwater look officials. In the aggregate, if you like a commie, and they are the ones mean *voters* literally, the match is who pick the standard-bearers" about right."

• "It would be a different answer if • "The politics of the state's elected you asked are the state's GOP Primary officials reflects the politics of the voters more conservative than elected state's primary voters - extremist, officials." petty, and downright nasty on both sides." • "Yet another really silly question, in that there can be no real answer. As • "The locos are just louder." usual, the question is apparently

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, David Anthony, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Mike Barnett, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Jay Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Janis Carter, Tris Castaneda, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller,

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Rebecca Flores, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, John Heasley, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Laura Huffman, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Russ Keane, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Elizabeth Lippincott, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Kim Ross, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Paul Sadler, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Bradford Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Steve Stagner, Jason Stanford, Keith Strama, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, John Weaver, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012