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The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Insider Poll for the Week Of The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of September 10 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Texas in November? • "Just don't think Paul can get it Texas) has heard of, take the R to done" win." • "Maybe you should have asked • "Probably Cruz, but once people who's the better candidate?" other than the right wing sliver of the republican party who nominated him • "Sadler's vote record in the TX see who he is, Sadler might actually House isn't conservative." have a chance" • "Just voting with my heart. Paul • "No money. No focus by the party. Sadler would be light years better The state is not in play in the than Ted Cruz in public service." presidential. Poor Paul is not in play." • "Barring a John Tower incident, but • "John Cornyn is about to look he will get closer than the sensible by comparison." conventional wisdom" • "It may be closer than you think but • "Seriously, guys. We may have to the anti-Obama sentiment will put rename the survey to 'Stupid Cruz over the line" Intelligence.'" • "No contest" • "Should there be an uprising that does not appear imminent Koch and • "There are few sure things in life. the Crossroads would be in here as Ted Cruz winning is one of them." soon as the Mad Hatter said, ' Down with the bloody Red Queen! '" • "This was a question worthy of Inside Intelligence assessment?" • "A good guy with no money cannot beat a unknown guy with lot of • "Paul who?" money." • "Paul Sadler needs to get himself a • "Minimum 10 point win" white pickup truck and start touring the state if he wants a shot of at least • "No one knows who Sadler is, having a chance at winning." outside of the capitol crowd." • "Is this really a question?" • "Sadler gets a little redneck vote that normally goes Republican, and Cruz • "Cruz 56-Sadler 44. And again, the siphons off some Hispanic Ds, better man does not win." creating a wash. My guess is a 10-12 point win." • "If Sadler had a little more money he could at least make for an interesting • "In the race between the Republican campaign." who Paul Sadler claims nobody really knows and the Democrat nobody • "Do you even need to ask?" (outside of a small patch of East INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 • "Noriega lost by nearly 1 million • "Cruz will have all of the votes. Cutting that by 30% isn't even a enthusiasm and money behind him. remote possibility." The National Dems don't even believe Sadler has a chance." • "Sadler is fool, got beat in his home town in school board race" • "Sadler might get 1% more that the base D vote due to a few moderates." • "But Sadler will fare better than expected. Cruz's style is turning as many people off as he's turning on." Do Texas Democrats have a better chance at a comeback under an Obama or a Romney administration? • "Just look at the comeback by • "Democrats are better off if Romney Republicans under Obama (with the wins. All of us know that the economy exception of scattered local offices and all of America's ills cannot be particularly in the Dallas area)." fixed in one term. This time it'll be a Republican problem." • "The longer Obama remains president the worse off all centralist • "That's a really good question. It democrats are." would be 'easier' under a Romney administration as long as he didn't • "They have a better chance at a reap the benefits a recovery driven by comeback under a Perry the current economic policies. But administration." would better for Texas under and Obama administration as Texas • "Texas Democrats will come back, Republicans would keep opposing but they will come back through the policies that disproportionately helps Republican primaries. Texas Texas families." Democrats have never been liberals; they are just more rational in their • "If the Ryan budget were actually conservatism. The bigger the enacted, the backlash could Republican Party gets, the less reinvigorate the Ds." Republican it will be." • "Mostly the comeback, whenever • "Burning the village in order to save that actually occurs, will be based on it is a failed, literally pyrrhic strategy" inexorable demographic change." • "Probably slightly better with a • "I think we will be a red state for the Romney admin, along with a strong term of either." GOP US House, as a foil on immigration and other issues -- they • "Texas Ds remain in an Catch-22 on need some defining moment to finally issues. Do they embrace the national hit their tipping point on broad Latino party (which has many planks that voter engagement." just don't play with most voters in INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Texas) or do they break away to the Ds can bring something to the table, right (making them no different than then they ain't gonna eat." an R)?" • "The D's must get rid of Obama • "They’re out either way - for at least before a conversation can be started a decade more." about a 'comeback' in Texas." • "Texas Democrats won't make a • "No plan, no bench, no hope for a comeback until they wean themselves quick (like 10 years long) turnaround." off trial lawyer money." • "The Democrats don't care and the • "In the short term, an Obama Republicans don't have to care." presidency will continue to mobilize conservatives, leading to another • "Julian and Joaquin Castro are successful mid-term cycle. However, absolutely stars and are the future of if Obama pays it forward and features the Party, but the future is a long way Latinos prominently in his off." administration during his second term, it could help to mobilize an • "Neither. I doubt the Democrats will emerging base that will carry have an opportunity for a comeback Democrats to victory for many cycles in Texas for many years." to come." • "It's always easier to run against the • "Democrats have no comeback shortcomings of the opposition hopes carrying Obama on their backs" incumbent than to run with the shortcomings of your own party's • "They won't be coming back during incumbent." either administration" • "Pendulum has swung and is hitting • "Perry has a better chance of the right side of the clock. Democrats creating a Democratic comeback..." won't pull it back, Republicans will push it away, especially as moderates • "Under Romney, Democrats would like Romney demonstrate that have short-term gains in 2014; but a participation requires allegiance to Romney packed Supreme Court right-wing principles they don't would severely roll back minority share." voting rights for decades." • "All politics is local, and until the • "Are they still a political party?" Democrats get a cohesive message they will remain the minority party." • "It doesn't matter who's at the helm; if Texas voters aren't convinced that INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 10 September 2012 Republicans have been in charge of state government in Texas for a decade. What's their weak spot? • "If Republicans would stay out of • "All the above, but pub ed has people's bedrooms and religious grassroots constituencies that are beliefs, they would sweep the nation more readily galvanizable;" but they keep promoting boneheads like Akin. Similarly, if Democrats • "Increasing incompetence and would quit whining and taking flaccidity of Perry appointments money from working people to give to across all agencies/issues -- they're deadbeats, they would sweep." down to their C list and falling fast. The only qualifications are loyalty and • "The GOP's weak spot is all of the (preferably) minority status, but the above." real credential is loyal lackeyism -- and that combined with decreasing • "Arrogance! They have been in political adeptness will bite Perry on charge, yet continue to blame the butt in time." Democrats for what is wrong with Texas! The republicans have ruined • "Digging an ever deeper hole for our out state and taken it light years into state." the past!!" • "All of our problems are caused by • "Denial" the budget and taxes. We spend too much and have too little." • "All of them. The numbers show that by any measure that the state is • "Their weak spot? They don't want worse off in each one of these to pay for anything. They portray categories." themselves as opposing services. So if they had the money they wouldn't • "Weak spot from whose want to spend it even though Texas perspective? Tea Partiers and current unemployment suffers from conservatives? Budget and taxes. cutbacks in public services. As Alice Democrats and Liberals? All of the said, ' Of all the silly nonsense, this is above, plus abortion." the stupidest tea party I've ever been to in all my life.' Major Jack D Ripper • "Texas government must pay the : Mandrake, do you recall what bills without new taxes. That's the Clemenceau once said about war? greatest challenge regardless of Captain Lionel Mandrake : No, I don't party." think I do, sir, no. Major Jack D Ripper: He said war was too • "Their weak spot is a lack of balance. important to be left to the generals. It permeates every aspect of state But today, war is too important to be government.
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