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UC Riverside UC Riverside Electronic Theses and Dissertations UC Riverside UC Riverside Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title One of Us: A Theory of Identity-Based Appeals Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4pp484s1 Author Alamillo, Rudy Publication Date 2019 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE One of Us: A Theory of Identity-Based Appeals A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Rudy Alamillo September 2019 Dissertation Committee: Dr. S. Karthick Ramakrishnan, Chairperson Dr. Loren Collingwood Dr. Jennifer Merolla Copyright by Rudy Alamillo 2019 The Dissertation of Rudy Alamillo is approved: Committee Chairperson University of California, Riverside Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my dissertation committee, without whom this work would not be possible. Karthick Ramakrishnan provided strong advisement and support from my first year at UC Riverside. Jennifer Merolla provided invaluable guidance and feedback, especially on my prospectus and job talk. Loren Collingwood is the best mentor I could ask for. Without Loren’s support, I would not be the scholar I am today. I would also like to acknowledge my department’s Graduate Assistants, Sara Palmer and Gary Kuzas, for their tireless support. I would like to thank my parents, Rudy and Mary, and my siblings, Natalie and Richie, for their help and support throughout my time in college. My grandparents, Serafin and Elvira, and in-laws, Tetsuro and Mariko, have been constant sources of support and inspiration, and I dedicate this work in part to them. My wife, Mayuko, listened to countless ideas, took care of me, and put up with six years in Riverside. Most importantly, she has been a wonderful mother to our daughter, Mariko, as I toiled away on this and other projects. Finally, I would like to thank my daughter, Mariko. Mariko, you are my pride and joy, and everything I do is for you. iv ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION One of Us: A Theory of Identity-Based Appeals by Rudy Alamillo Doctor of Philosophy, Graduate Program in Political Science University of California, Riverside, September 2019 Dr. S. Karthick Ramakrishnan, Chairperson This dissertation examines whether non-co-ethnic candidates can benefit from shared ethnicity. Using the test case of non-Hispanic White candidate appeals to Latino voters, I argue that non-Latino candidates who use a package of appeals I call identity- based appeals can reduce the social space between themselves and Latinos and increase support. The first chapter consists of four candidate case studies based on news accounts, campaign materials, and archival records. These case studies illustrate the varied uses of identity-based appeals across states, political parties, and time. The second chapter uses observational vote data to conduct ecological inferences analyses for candidates from the first chapter. Evidence suggests that relative to comparison cases who do not use identity- based appeals, candidates who use identity-based appeals perform better among Latino voters. The final chapter uses a novel conjoint experiment to examine the relative impact of each identity-based appeal as well as compare the effectiveness of identity-based appeals to policy and partisan cues. While evidence suggests identity-based appeals are effective at increasing candidate support among Latinos, policy appeals on immigration have v significantly larger effects. Evidence suggest political knowledge moderates the effects of identity-based appeals. vi Table of Contents Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..1 Chapter 1…………………………………………………………………………………27 Chapter 2…………………………………………………………………………………58 Chapter 3…………………………………………………………………………………82 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………...128 References………………………………………………………………………………143 Appendices……………………………………………………………………………...159 vii List of Tables Chapter 2 Table 2.1: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in CO-6, 2012…………………………………………..60 Table 2.2: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in CO-6, 2014…………………………………………..63 Table 2.3: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in CO-6, 2016…………………………………………..65 Table 2.4: Comparison of ecological inference mean estimates for Latino vote preferences from 2012-2014……………………………………………………..68 Table 2.5: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in Texas’ gubernatorial election, 2010…………………69 Table 2.6: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in Texas’ gubernatorial election, 2014…………………69 Table 2.7: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in Texas’ gubernatorial election, 2018…………....……71 Table 2.8: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in Texas’ Senate election, 2012………………………...72 Table 2.9: Ecological inference mean estimates for Latino and non-Hispanic White vote preferences in Texas’ Senate election, 2018………………………...74 Table 2.10: Comparison of ecological inference mean estimates for Latino vote preferences for 2018 Democratic candidates in Texas…………………………..74 Table 2.11: Comparison of ecological inference mean estimates for Latino vote preferences for 2018 Republican candidates in Texas…………………………...76 Chapter 3 Table 3.1: Conjoint Candidate Attributes and Levels……………………………84 Appendices viii Table A.1: External validity predicting Latino vote……………………………159 Table A.2: Variable coding – external validity analysis……………………..…160 ix List of Figures Introduction Figure 1: Predictors of Bush vote likelihood…………………………………….14 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1: Scatterplot comparing precinct percent Latino and Coffman vote…..62 Figure 2.2: Scatterplot comparing precinct percent Latino and Coffman vote between 2012 and 2014………………………………………………………….64 Figure 2.3: Scatterplot comparing precinct percent Latino and Coffman vote between 2012 and 2016………………………………………………………….66 Figure 2.4: Scatterplot comparing precinct percent Latino and candidate vote between O’Rourke and Valdez in 2018………………………………………….75 Figure 2.5: Scatterplot comparing precinct percent Latino and candidate vote between Cruz and Abbott in 2018……………………………………………….77 Figure 2.6: Predictors of Latino support for gubernatorial and senate candidates in selected states…………………………………………………………………….80 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1: Effects of candidate attributes on Latino support for congressional candidates………………………………………………………………………...92 Figure 3.2: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among native-born Latinos………………………………………………………95 Figure 3.3: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among foreign-born Latinos……………………………………………………..97 Figure 3.4: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among high linked fate Latinos…………………………………........................100 Figure 3.5: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among moderate linked fate Latinos……………………………........................102 Figure 3.6: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among low linked fate Latinos………………………………….........................104 x Figure 3.7: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among Latinos with no linked fate……..……………………….........................106 Figure 3.8: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among nonpartisan Latinos……...……..……………………….........................109 Figure 3.9: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among partisan Latinos…………………………...…………………………….111 Figure 3.10: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among Latino Democrats…………...………...…………………….113 Figure 3.11: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among Latino Republicans………….………...…………………….115 Figure 3.12: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among low political knowledge Latinos ……………..…………….119 Figure 3.13: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among moderate political knowledge Latinos ………...……..…….121 Figure 3.14: Effects of candidate attributes on support for congressional candidates among high political knowledge Latinos ………...……..………….123 Appendices Figure A.1: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Colorado’s 2012 6th Congressional District Election…..161 Figure A.2: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Colorado’s 2014 6th Congressional District Election…..162 Figure A.3: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Colorado’s 2016 6th Congressional District Election…..163 Figure A.4: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Texas’ 2010 Gubernatorial Election……………………164 Figure A.5: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Texas’ 2014 Gubernatorial Election……………………165 Figure A.6: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference methods for Texas’ 2018 Gubernatorial Election……………………166 xi Figure A.7: Estimate difference between King’s and Rosen et al.’s ecological inference
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