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Independent Market Overview by CBRE Pte Ltd

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Independent Market Overview by CBRE Pte Ltd 45 Annual Report 2017/18 Independent Market Overview By CBRE Pte Ltd 1. THE SINGAPORE ECONOMY Chart 1: Singapore GDP Growth Rate at 2010 Prices 1.1 Economic Overview 6.0% According to the Ministry of Trade & Industry (“MTI”), 5.1% Singapore’s economy expanded by 3.6% in 2017, an 5.0% 3.9% 3.6% improvement from the 2.4% growth achieved in 2016. Growth 4.0% was driven primarily by robust expansion in the manufacturing 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% sector, which grew by 10.1%. It was led by the precision engineering and electronics clusters amidst a decline in output 2.0% within the biomedical manufacturing, transport engineering 1.0% and general manufacturing clusters. The services sector also saw an overall expansion of 2.8% in 2017 which was supported 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 by the wholesale & retail trade, transportation & storage and Sources: MTI and CBRE finance & insurance sectors. Conversely, the construction sector 2. THE OFFICE MARKET contracted by 8.4% on the back of weaknesses in private sector 2.1 Existing Office Supply construction activities. The total office stock in Singapore stood at 59.5 million sf in 1Q 2018, representing a 3.9% year-on-year increase. This is According to the MAS, headline inflation for 2017 came in at due largely to the completion of new developments such as 0.6%. Meanwhile, core inflation averaged 1.5% for the year. MAS UIC Building (277,540 sf) and Marina One East & West Tower expects core inflation to stay in the range of 1-2% in 2018. (1,875,630 sf) in 2017. In the current era of technological disruption and stiff Raffles Place, Shenton Way, Marina Centre and Marina Bay form competition, the Singapore government has been very the CBD Core submarket with approximately half of overall supportive in pushing for the restructuring of the country’s stock. Typical office tenants in the CBD Core submarket are economy. The government is currently developing 23 Industry in the Financial & Insurance, Information Technology (“IT”), Transformation Maps which aim to formulate strategies Legal Services and Business Services industries. Tanjong Pagar, to support companies move up the value chain, improve Beach Road/City Hall as well as Orchard Road make up the CBD operational productivity and overseas expansion. Fringe submarket with 27.3% of total stock. The Decentralised submarket accounts for the remaining 22.7% of total stock. Overall, the outlook for global growth has improved, with the International Monetary Fund upgrading its forecast for 2018 to In terms of net new office supply1, the 5-year average was 3.9% amidst increased momentum brought about by changes approximately 1.34 million sf (2013 - 2017 inclusive). in United States tax policy. Singapore’s economy is expected to post moderate growth in 2018 and is expected to be slightly Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-market above the middle of the forecast range of 1.5-3.5%. The office stock in the Tanjong Pagar2 and HarbourFront/Alexandra3 micro-market stands at 5.6 million sf and 3.6 million sf respectively. The Tanjong Pagar micro-market commands 9.4% of the overall market while the HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market occupies a 6.0% market share of the island-wide office stock. Both the Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra micro- markets are characterised by a diverse set of assets with a wide range of age and specifications. 1 Net new supply is calculated as a sum of new completions, demolitions and conversions. 2 For confidentiality reasons, CBRE cannot provide the full list of buildings in the particular basket but to name a few projects. The key projects in the Tanjong Pagar basket are Guoco Tower, 79 Anson Road, AXA Tower, Mapletree Anson and Twenty Anson among others. 3 For confidentiality reasons, CBRE cannot provide the full list of buildings in the particular basket but to name a few projects. The key projects in the Habourfront/Alexandra basket are HarbourFront Tower 1 and Tower 2, HarbourFront Centre, MLHF, Keppel Bay Tower, the office component of MBC I, PSA Building, and Fragrance Empire Building among others. 46 Mapletree Commercial Trust Independent Market Overview By CBRE Pte Ltd 2.2 Future Office Supply Tanjong Pagar and HarbourFront/Alexandra Micro-markets For the next four years (2Q 2018 – 2021 inclusive), there are The redevelopment of Hub Synergy Point is the only enbloc currently plans for approximately 4.3 million sf of new office office development scheduled for completion in the Tanjong developments. Most of the future supply (48.8%) is in the CBD Pagar micro-market, and will add 128,456 sf of office space Core submarket while 35.2% and 15.9% of new office space are when completed in 2020. in the Decentralised and CBD Fringe submarkets respectively. There is currently no planned future office supply in the Three office developments totalling 1.7 million sf are slated for HarbourFront/Alexandra micro-market. completion in 2Q-4Q 2018. Approximately 48.1%, totalling 0.8 million sf of new office space, will be in the CBD Core submarket. 2.3 Demand & Occupancy Major developments in the CBD Core submarket consist of 18 Total island-wide office net absorption continued to exhibit Robinson (145,000 sf) and Frasers Tower (663,000 sf). In the growth in 2017, coming in at 2.1 million sf against 1.2 million sf in Decentralised submarket, the completion of Paya Lebar Quarter 2016. This was attributable to stronger economic fundamentals, (872,000 sf) will further add to the office stock. positive market sentiments and healthy pre-commitment in several recently completed buildings such as UIC Building and New office developments in 2019 will be in the CBD Fringe Marina One. and Decentralised submarket. The redevelopment of Funan DigitaLife Mall (204,172 sf) and Park Mall (352,000 sf) will Flight-to-quality and flight-to-efficiency remained the common be in the CBD Fringe submarket, while the Woods Square themes as firms took the opportunity to relocate to better development (534,500 sf) by Far East Organisation and Sekisui quality buildings with higher specifications and floor-plate House will be in the Decentralised market. efficiencies. Sectors driving absorption included financial institutions, technology firms and co-working spaces. Co- 2020 will see the completion of Centrium Square (107,041 working spaces have been gaining acceptance amongst both sf) by Tong Eng in the Decentralised submarket, as well as landlords and enterprises alike. These spaces also increased the the redevelopment of Afro-Asia Building (153,526 sf) and 79 diversity of office solutions for a changing workforce. Prominent Robinson Road (500,000 sf) in the CBD Core submarket. co-working operators like WeWork and Distrii took up space in In 2021, the redevelopment of Golden Shoe Carpark into the CBD Core and CBD Fringe area. This robust growth pattern CapitaSpring will add 635,000 sf of office space into the CBD is expected to continue into 2018 as operators continue to Core submarket. compete for market share. Chart 2: Island-wide Future Office Supply Island-wide vacancy rate increased to 6.11% (+1.8% year-on-year) in 2017 amidst the completion of major office developments such 1.6 as UIC building and Marina One. However, vacancy levels have 1.4 since declined to 5.86% in 1Q 2018 amidst a tapering in new office 1.2 0.9 supply and improvement in business sentiments. 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 NLA (million sf) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2Q-4Q 2018 2019 2020 2021 CBD Core CBD Fringe Decentralised Source: CBRE 47 Annual Report 2017/18 Chart 3: Island-wide Office Demand & Vacancy 1.4 8.0% 1.2 7.0% 1.0 6.0% 0.8 5.0% 0.6 0.4 4.0% 0.2 NLA (million sf) 3.0% 0.0 2.0% -0.2 1.0% -0.4 -0.6 0.0% 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 Net Absorption (LHS) Net New Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) Source: CBRE Tanjong Pagar and Alexandra/HarbourFront Micro-markets occupiers with quality assets that attracted demand from The introduction of Guoco Tower in 2016 has brought up the tenants who are drawn to the relatively reasonable pricing and overall branding and positioning of the Tanjong Pagar micro- large floor plates. market, contributing positively to the overall appeal of the micro-market. 2.4 Office Vacancy Despite steadily increasing from a 5-year low of 3.8% in 3Q 2014, The Alexandra/HarbourFront micro-market is located in the island-wide office vacancy rate has since bottomed out in 2H fringe of the city area and offers an attractive alternative for 2017 with 1Q 2018 vacancy at 5.86%. Chart 4: Office Vacancy Rates 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Vacancy Rates Vacancy 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 Island-Wide Tanjong Pagar HarbourFront/Alexandra Source: CBRE 48 Mapletree Commercial Trust Independent Market Overview By CBRE Pte Ltd Tanjong Pagar and Alexandra/HarbourFront Micro-markets There are signs of bottoming out in the office rental market with Vacancy rates in the Tanjong Pagar micro-market declined by 1.3p.p.
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