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Mogadishu, Somalia PANTONE P 108-16 C THEMATIC SERIES UnSettlement: Urban displacement in the 21st century This thematic series explores the scale, nature and dynamics of internal displacement in towns and cities across the world CITY OF FLIGHT New and secondary displacements in Mogadishu, Somalia NOVEMBER 2018 www.internal-displacement.org KEY MESSAGES | Urban IDPs face specific vulnerabilities, including poor water and sanitation conditions, food insecurity, a lack | Between 2017 and mid-2018, 32 per cent of new displace- of personal documentation and poor shelter and tenure ments recorded in Somalia were to, or within, the capital security. Land and property disputes are at the heart of city of Mogadishu. Urban displacement is contributing urban conflict. Clan power dynamics lie behind IDPs’ lack to the fact that Mogadishu now has the second highest of tenure security and the growing number of forced urban population density in the world. evictions. | The year of 2017 was Somalia’s second most violent year | Forced evictions have been taking place since the onset in nearly a decade. Drought, competition for natural re- of Somalia’s conflict in the early 1990s, but the scale of sources and poor living conditions fuel fighting in rural the problem is now unprecedented. In Mogadishu, 99 areas and push people towards Mogadishu. per cent of the evictees are IDPs. | Within Mogadishu, over 300,000 new displacements have | The informal nature of the housing sector in Somalia been recorded since the beginning of 2017. is a crosscutting challenge that puts a burden on both cities and IDPs. In the absence of clear laws to regulate | Somalia’s conflict was played out in Mogadishu for many transactions, the number of illegal evictions, the majority years, making the city both a battlefield that has triggered ur- of them affecting IDPs, is likely to rise. This neglected ban displacement and a sanctuary for hundreds of thousands issue requires urgent attention if displacement is to be of people fleeing insecurity and lack of opportunity in rural reduced and durable solutions facilitated for hundreds areas. For many internally displaced people (IDPs), however, of thousands of IDPs. the arrival in Mogadishu does not mark an end to their plight. INTRODUCTION For many IDPs, arrival in Mogadishu does not mark an end to their plight. On the contrary, their inability to access basic services, Somalia experienced a sharp increase in new displacements particularly housing, has forced them into secondary displace- associated with both conflict and disasters in 2017 and the first ment. Forced evictions accounted for 166,000 new displacements half of 2018. Many of those displaced have moved from rural nationwide in 2017, or 43 per cent of the all new displacements areas to the country’s main cities in search of shelter, protection associated with conflict and violence during the year.4 The situ- and humanitarian assistance. Forced evictions have triggered ation deteriorated significantly in the first half of 2018, when displacement within urban areas, and data shows that the vast they accounted for 191,000 new displacements, or 56 per cent majority of those evicted had already been displaced before. of all new displacements associated with conflict and violence.5 Displacement is clearly shaping Somalia’s urban landscape Forced evictions have been taking place since the onset of Soma- and contributing to its urbanisation rate, which is one of the lia’s conflict in the early 1990s, but the scale of the problem is highest in the world. now unprecedented. The overall number of new displacements recorded in 2018 will likely be the highest in a decade (see figure 1). Weak urban systems, however, are unable to cope with the demands of the ever-growing population and the arrival and FIGURE 1: Total number of new displacements triggered by settlement of internally displaced people (IDPs).1 Mogadishu has conflict and violence between 2009 and mid-2018 400,000 been their main destination by far. It is home to about 600,000 341,000 IDPs, most of whom live in informal settlements, and the city 300,000 Estimated number of has the second highest urban population density in the world.2 200,000 new displacements reported between 100,000 Slow and sudden-onset natural hazards have increased compe- January and June tition for resources in rural areas, including already scarce agri- 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 cultural land and pasture for livestock. This in turn has aggra- Source: IDMC, PRMN vated clan conflicts, forcing people to flee to Mogadishu in search of safety and better livelihood opportunities.3 Ongoing This is the second case study in our thematic series on urban Al Shabaab offensives and clashes with the Somali army also displacement in the 21st century.6 It discusses the latest devel- continue to force people to flee. This complex interplay of opments in terms of rural to urban displacement in Somalia, and displacement drivers, triggers and impacts has spiralled into the ongoing situation in the capital. By examining the drivers a general lack of opportunity that has slowed down peace- and patterns of urban displacement, it aims to contribute to building and long-term development, creating a complex and broader discussions on the nature of the phenomenon, increase protracted humanitarian crisis with no solution in sight. knowledge and inform programming and policymaking to address and reduce it. 2 RECENT DISPLACEMENT livestock loss in some areas, triggering the impoverishment and displacement of farmers, agropastoralists and pastoralists.9 The PATTERNS AND TRENDS trend continued in 2017, with only erratic and below average rainfall.10 As of the end of the year 6.2 million people, half of | PUSH AND PULL FACTORS the country’s population, needed humanitarian assistance, of whom 3.2 million faced severe food insecurity. Acute malnu- Somalia has and will continue to experience prolonged droughts trition increased by 50 per cent compared with 2016.11 and heavy flooding, and these are likely to become more frequent and intense with the impacts of climate change. Such At the same time, 2017 was also Somalia’s second most events undermine livelihoods and coping mechanisms, and violent year since 2008, and the number of fatalities related aggravate conflict over scarce resources. The ultimate outcome to conflict was the highest in a decade. Al Shabaab attacks is the displacement of mostly rural populations to urban areas and clashes with the Somali armed forces peaked, as did US in search of safety, alternative livelihoods and humanitarian and UK airstrikes against the group, which led to civilian fatal- assistance. To make matters worse, Al Shabaab attacks and ities.12 Peacekeeping forces from the AU mission in Somalia Somali army offensives against its militias in the south-east (AMISOM) also withdrew from key locations, which strength- of the country also force people to flee toward Mogadishu.7 ened Al Shabaab’s position in several areas of the south-east.13 2018 is on course to record similar levels of violence.14 The elec- Drought in Somalia has been severe in recent years as a result tion of Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed as Somalia’s president of the El Niño weather phenomenon, and four poor rainy in February 2017 is also thought to have contributed to the seasons in 2016 and 2017 have had extensive impacts on violence. He listed defeating Al Shabaab as his main priority, people living in rural areas, their livestock and food security.8 which is believed to have led the group to use the vacuum Adan Yabaal Cereal harvests were 70 per cent lower than the longer-term left by AMISOM to try to strengthen its grip on some areas.15 average in 2016, and the reduction in grazing land led to total Middle Shabelle Jowhar Wanla Weyn Wanla Weyn figure 2: New displacements from Middle and Lower Shabelle to Banadir in 2017 and first half ofBalcad 2018 Cadale Afgooye Adan Yabaal Afgooye Middle Shabelle Banadir Jowhar Wanla Weyn (Mogadishu) Wanla Weyn Qoryooley New displacements Kurtunwaarey Qoryooley Kurtunwaarey Balcad Cadale Marka New displacements Marka triggered by Sablaale Afgooye triggered by insecurity Sablaale Afgooye drought conditions Banadir Origin Destination Origin Destination Baraawe (Mogadishu) QoryooleyBaraawe New displacements Kurtunwaarey Qoryooley Kurtunwaarey Marka New displacements Marka triggered by Sablaale Lower Shabelle triggered by insecurity Sablaale drought conditions Less than 800Origin DestinationMore than 42,000 Origin Destination Baraawe people displaced people displaced Baraawe Lower Shabelle Less than 800 More than 42,000 people displaced people displaced Kurtunwaarey Kurtunwaarey MarkaMarka Drought conditionsDrought conditions Lower Shabelle AfgooyeAfgooye 175,000 new 175,000displacements new displacements Lower Shabelle Banadir Qoryooley Banadir QoryooleySablaale Insecurity Wanla Weyn 116,000 new Insecuritydisplacements Middle Shabelle SablaaleJowhar Wanla WeynBalcad 116,000 new displacements Middle Shabelle Baraawe JowharCadale AdanBalcad Yabaal Baraawe Cadale Region of Adan Yabaal District of Trigger of Region of origin origin displacement arrival Region of District of Trigger of Region of origin origin displacement arrival Source: PRMN. Small displacement flows are not displayed on the above graphics. *The information shown on the following maps and charts has been compiled from diverse sources and may not be accurately displayed. The information represented is used for illustrative purposes. 3 FIGURE 3: New displacements in Mogadishu in 2017 New displacements
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