DOCSLIB.ORG

Industrials Imagine 2025

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Industrials Imagine 2025 Imagine 2025 Gearing up for the next Industrial Revolution EQUITY RESEARCH | SEPTEMBER 5, 2019 For required non-U.S. Analyst and conflicts disclosures, please see page 150. Disseminated: September 5, 2019 01:35ET; Produced: September 5, 2019 01:35ET Imagine 2025 A message from the Directors of Global Research We at RBC Capital Markets are constantly challenging ourselves to be differentiated and provide unique perspectives. We aim to add value to our clients and distinguish ourselves as thought leaders in our respective industries in which we conduct and provide research. We like to stimulate debates conducted by those with diverse perspectives, not for the sake of being provocative, but to initiate a more comprehensive discussion about our researched sectors and companies. This often involves forecasting projections and returns for the future, and then assigning a valuation based on those estimates. This type of analysis usually assumes no major structural changes of the external environmental forces that serve to shape the economic and business landscapes. We collectively decided to challenge ourselves to be more creative about what that future might look like. In 2017, RBC Capital Markets embarked on an ambitious six-month study of the global drivers of parabolic change. We began by identifying a fairly large number of “change forces” that we believe will catalyze a metamorphosis of the world around us. The six themes that emerged from this work – The Calibrated & Augmented Self, The AI Race, Collective Action, Escalating Uncertainties, The Agility Imperative and In Cloud We Trust – formed the outline of Imagine 2025. Following up on our Landmark Imagine 2025 Study and Additional Imagine 2025 Research, our Global Industrials Research team collaborated to provide a roadmap for investors and industry leaders alike to navigate the change forces determining the global industrial landscape for the future. Ultimately, we believe a new industrial revolution may be upon us, driven by six themes consistent with our Imagine Framework— where advancements in artificial intelligence, customization capabilities and cloud technology set against an uncertain geopolitical and environmental backdrop force industrial players to collaborate with competitors and increase their agility to survive. And while post industrial revolution advancements such as the combustion engine, assembly line and global trade have underpinned the industrial world over the past century, we believe artificial intelligence, autonomous transportation and cloud technology, among other significant innovations, could completely transform the industrial marketplace within the next 5-10 years and for the foreseeable future. Our call to action is this: with the pace of change accelerating, Industrials stakeholders must place increased focus beyond the next few quarters and into the years ahead. This way of thinking has already been well adopted by GM CEO Mary Bara and CN CEO Jean-Jacques Ruest, who joined our Imagine 2025 discussion. Our hope is that this report provokes a range of thinking that allows readers to proactively consider how emerging technologies, innovations and global trends will impact the industrial world and the fates of both companies and customers intertwined within it. We encourage readers to look laterally and think critically as they make their way through the report, reflecting upon how developments in one industry may influence others and developing a framework to anticipate which companies are blazing trails of change. We also hope to equip our readers with a thematic roadmap to develop new questions they should be considering and posing to management teams and industry leaders. As always, please reach out to us with your feedback, thoughts and questions. Graeme Pearson Justin Spitzer Rufus Grantham Andre-Phillipe Hardy Head of Global Research Head of US Research Head of European & APAC Research Head of Canadian Research September 5, 2019 RETURN TO TOC 2 Imagine 2025 Table of contents Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 5 Why we engaged in this study ................................................................................................... 7 Understanding “the law of accelerating returns” ...................................................................... 7 The Imagine 2025 Portfolio ........................................................................................................ 8 Theme I: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Race ........................................................................ 9 What you need to know ............................................................................................................. 9 The Industrial AI Revolution ..................................................................................................... 10 Autonomous is coming and ready to disrupt transportation .................................................. 17 TrAIns and AIrlines ................................................................................................................... 27 They call me trashbot ............................................................................................................... 34 Seeing the forest for the trees ................................................................................................. 36 Theme II: The Calibrated and Augmented Self .................................................................... 41 What you need to know ........................................................................................................... 41 The disruptive forces of e-commerce and price transparency ................................................ 42 E-commerce to shape the future of delivery ........................................................................... 43 Advertising at your doorstep ................................................................................................... 43 Farming is only going to get smarter (and more precise) ........................................................ 45 Digital Agriculture: A Hungry Future ........................................................................................ 46 Introducing the personalized driving experience ..................................................................... 48 More in the trashcan than meets the eye................................................................................ 52 The personalized hunt for talent .............................................................................................. 54 Buying a house from the comfort of your living room ............................................................. 55 Printing buildings has never been this easy ............................................................................. 56 Theme III: In Cloud We Trust .............................................................................................. 57 What you need to know ........................................................................................................... 57 Connecting the Industrial Internet ........................................................................................... 58 House on a Cloud, but it’s not Quite Heaven Yet ..................................................................... 63 Driving mobility through cloud integration .............................................................................. 64 Building into the clouds together ............................................................................................. 68 Sensors out on the farm? ......................................................................................................... 69 Theme IV: Collective Action ................................................................................................ 73 What you need to know............................................................................................................ 73 Connecting the global labor force ............................................................................................ 74 Labor getting scarcer and margins getting narrower ............................................................... 76 Transitioning from auto enemies to frenemies ....................................................................... 77 ESG investing is here to stay, but who will the winners be? .................................................... 79 Renewable energy’s growing importance ................................................................................ 83 The ever-evolving waste stream .............................................................................................. 85 The next paper straw? ............................................................................................................. 87 Innovation and its implications for the future of farming ........................................................ 90 Banking on an infrastructure buildout ..................................................................................... 91 Consolidation in transportation could be coming .................................................................... 93 September 5, 2019 RETURN TO TOC 3 Imagine 2025 Theme V: Escalating Uncertainties ..................................................................................... 95 What you need to know ..........................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Clarity on Mergers and Acquisitions
    Clarity on Mergers & Acquisitions Swiss deal flows hit record high January 2019 16 2018 activity and 2019 outlook An industry-by-industry look at last year’s deals and what you might expect over the next 12 months. 22 Private Equity and the Swiss economy SECA’s General Secretary shares his insights into how Private Equity makes the Swiss economy stronger. 76 Detailed 2018 transaction list View the M&A deals that involved a Swiss buyer, seller or target. 28 4 12 6 18 10 Clarity on Mergers & Acquisitions CONTENT Clarity on Mergers & Acquisitions EDITORIAL CHAPTER II 3 Switzerland’s M&A activity 34 Industry Sector Pages sets a new record 36 Chemicals 40 Commodities CHAPTER I 44 Consumer Markets Overview 48 Financial Services 52 Industrial Markets 12 Media headlines 56 Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences 60 Power & Utilities 14 Summary 64 Private Equity 68 Real Estate 72 Technology, Media & Telecommunications Focus Topic: Private Equity CHAPTER III 22 What is it and how does it work? 76 List of Swiss M&A 26 The changing legal and regulatory framework for Private Equity in Switzerland transactions in 2018 30 Interview with Maurice Pedergnana, SECA: CHAPTER IV The national economy is healthier thanks to private equity 110 Tombstones 116 PINBOARD 117 CONTACT & IMPRINT 1 2 Clarity on Mergers & Acquisitions EDITORIAL Switzerland’s M&A activity sets a new record activity. In fact, acquisitions by Private Equity houses once more exceeded exits, in a further sign of the growing importance of this community on the M&A landscape. A considerable amount of the M&A activity observed last year is due to changing consumer behaviors and rapid advances in technology – not least i4.0, the ’fourth industrial revolution’ that is upon us thanks to developments in artificial intelligence.
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding and Respect Conference Programme 20-22Nd
    “Walking the Talk” towards Understanding and Respect “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it’s the only thing that ever has.” - Margaret Mead Conference Programme 20-22nd March 2014 20th March: Earth Day 21st March: End Racism Day 22nd March: Water Day Chambre de Commerce 7 r. Alcide de Gasperi - Kirchberg, Luxembourg Table of Contents Welcome Letter from ISL Director 3 Participating Institutions 4 - 5 Conference Schedule 6 - 8 Guest of Honour 9 Personal Notes 10 Keynote Speakers 11 – 14 Cassandra Lin 11 Lucy Patterson 12 Joana Adeswa Reiterer 13 Joseph Salim 14 Guest Speakers 15 – 16 Marty Dobbins 15 Hedda Pahlson - Moller 15 Carole Reckinger & Nathalie Oberweis 16 Personal Notes 17 GIN Discussion Statement 18 Action Plan Writing and Presentation 19 Presentation Sessions 20 – 32 Personal Notes 33 Individual Participants 34– 45 Visit Luxembourg & Buses Information 46 – 47 General Information 48 Page: 2 Dear Conference Delegates, It is my genuine pleasure to welcome you from more than thirty schools in fourteen countries to the ninth European Global Issues Network conference in Luxembourg. As one of the founders of the Global Issues Network, the International School of Luxembourg is, as ever, delighted to host this annual event, and Luxembourg opens its arms and its doors to you, our guests from international schools far and wide. Once again, thanks to the generous support from the Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce, we are able to conduct the business of this exciting conference in an outstanding environment, which meet the needs of this conference ideally.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report 2020 Empowering Young People
    ANNUAL REPORT 2020 EMPOWERING YOUNG PEOPLE GREENLAND (DENMARK) SVALBARD (NORWAY) YMCA ICELAND YMCA RUSSIA 1900 YMCA SWEDEN 1844 1899 YMCA FINLAND YMCA POLAND 1923 YMCA NORWAY 1878 1886 YMCA CANADA YMCA CZECH REPUBLIC 1920 1851 YMCA SLOVAKIA 1920 YMCA DENMARK1878 YMCA ESTONIA 1919 YMCA LATVIA 1923 YMCA NETHERLANDS 1851 YMCA LITHUANIA 1932 YMCA BELARUS 1994 YMCA MOLDOVA 1996 YMCA IRELAND 1849 YMCA HUNGARY 1883 YMCA GERMANY YMCA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 2011 YMCA ENGLAND AND WALES 1844 1848 YMCA BELGIUM 1853 YMCA UKRAINE YMCA MONGOLIA 1993 YMCA AUSTRIA 1996 YMCA SERBIA 2008 2002 YMCA YMCA BULGARIA 1883 YMCA SWITZERLAND 1852 FRANCE YMCA GEORGIA 1991 ROMANIA 1851 YMCA ARMENIA 1992 YMCA USA 1851 YMCA YMCA KOREA 1888 SPAIN YMCA PORTUGAL 1894 YMCA ITALY YMCA JAPAN 1880 1880 1851 YMCA CHINA YMCA LEBANON 1890 YMCA NEPAL 1990 1885 YMCA HONGKONG CYPRUS 1901 YMCA JERUSALEM INTERNATIONAL 1878 YMCA BANGLADESH 1965 YMCA MACAU YMCA EAST JERUSALEM 1848 YMCA PAKISTAN 1991 YMCA MALTA 1976 YMCA JORDAN 1961 YMCA MONTENEGRO 2011 1876 YMCA ALBANIA 2008 YMCA GAZA 1952 YMCA YMCA KOSOVO 2003 YMCA BAHAMAS 1966 YMCA EGYPT MEXICO YMCA CUBA 1905 YMCA N.MACEDONIA 1999 1909 YMCA INDIA YMCA TAIWAN 1945 1891 YMCA GREECE 1892 YMCA HAITI 1895 1854 YMCA YMCA DOMINICAN MYANMAR REPUBLIC 1963 1897 YMCA JAMAICA 1920 YMCA BELIZE 1987 YMCA NIGER YMCA ARUBA YMCA GUATEMALA 1964 YMCA HONDURAS 1990 YMCA SENEGAL 1982 2004 YMCA THAILAND 1930 YMCA 1956 YMCA SUDAN EL SALVADOR 1990 YMCA YMCA YMCA BARBADOS 1880 YMCA THE GAMBIA 1979 PHILIPPINES NICARAGUA 1989 SAINT VICENT 1889 1911 1994 TRINIDAD
    [Show full text]
  • Law, Governance and Technology Series
    Law, Governance and Technology Series Issues in Privacy and Data Protection Volume 36 Series editors Pompeu Casanovas, Barcelona, Spain Giovanni Sartor, Florence, Italy Serge Gutwirth, Brussels, Belgium Issues in Privacy and Data Protection aims at publishing peer reviewed scientific manuscripts that focus upon issues that engage into an analysis or reflexion related to the consequences of scientific and technological developments upon the private sphere, the personal autonomy and the self-construction of humans with data pro- tection and privacy as anchor points. The objective is to publish both disciplinary, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary works on questions that relate to experi- ences and phenomena that can or could be covered by legal concepts stemming from the law regarding the protection of privacy and/or the processing of personal data. Since both the development of science and technology, and in particular infor- mation technology (ambient intelligence, robotics, artificial intelligence, knowl- edge discovery, data mining, surveillance, etc.), and the law on privacy and data protection are in constant frenetic mood of change (as is clear from the many legal conflicts and reforms at hand), we have the ambition to reassemble a series of highly contemporary and forward-looking books, wherein cutting edge issues are analytically, conceptually and prospectively presented More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8808 Ronald Leenes • Rosamunde van Brakel Serge Gutwirth • Paul De Hert Editors Data Protection
    [Show full text]
  • Science-Switzerland, February - March 2014 News on Swiss Science, Technology, Education and Innovation
    Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft State Secretariat for Education and Research SER Confédération suisse Swiss Knowledge Network Confederazione Svizzera Confederaziun svizra Science-Switzerland, February - March 2014 News on Swiss science, technology, education and innovation Table of Contents 1. Policy ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Education ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3 3. Life Science / Health Care ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 4. Nano / Micro Technology / Material Science ........................................................................................................................ 11 5. Information & Communications Technology ......................................................................................................................... 12 6. Energy / Environment ........................................................................................................................................................... 14 7. Engineering / Robotics / Space ............................................................................................................................................ 17
    [Show full text]
  • Education Newsletter Bulletin Pédagogique
    Education Newsletter Bulletin pédagogique June 2014 Education Newsletter / Bulletin pédagogique 1 June / Juin 2014 Contents Page Les Misérables à La Grande Boissière 3 Les Misérables at La Grande Boissière 5 Conrad Hughes Cartes Postales de Népal 7 Devy Philippart de Foy, Alice Ramazzotti Institute of Learning and Teaching: Beginnings, Endings and Celebrations... 9 Alison Ball, Frédéric Mercier Foundation Pedagogical Day 13 Marcia Banks Ecolint and CERN: bringing down the barriers of knowledge 15 Stephen Preece The Noblest Ecolintian of them all 16 Alejandro Rodriguez-Giovo Study Day / Journée d’Etudes et de Réflexion 19 Conrad Hughes Health & Mindfulness 26 Christine Blom, Jan Dijkstra The World Scholar’s Cup : A leap into compelling academic opportunities 29 Isabel Hahn Annexe VI reports 28 Education Newsletter / Bulletin pédagogique 2 June / Juin 2014 Les Misérables à La Grande Boissière Conrad Hughes (Directeur de l’Education) Alors que le discours pédagogique moderne est devenu une succession de platitudes concernant ce qui marche réellement dans les écoles et la baguette magique qu’il conviendrait d’agiter pour que tout se passe bien (et le prix qu’il en coûtera), c’est avec un grand soulagement parfois que l’on se sent transporté par quelque chose de beau et d’intemporel. Car, s’il y a bien une chose qui transcende la cacophonie, un appel du clairon qui raisonne au-dessus de tout, c’est le travail de qualité. La qualité n’a pas besoin de preuve scientifique et se passe de discours exalté : elle parle avec économie une langue qui lui est propre, et dans laquelle la forme et le contenu ne font qu’un.
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 Swiss Venture Capital Report
    Edition No 7 Swiss Venture Capital 2019 Report Overall investment A billion for the first time Sectors ICT more than doubles its money Cantons Zurich takes back the lead In cooperation with SECA – Swiss Private Equity & Corporate Finance Association Editorial Contents Creation of an eco-system Results In order for a start-up scene to 7 At a glance develop its own momentum, it VC investment reaches a new record needs not only ambitious founders 9 The Top 20 with promising projects, but also Fintech SEBA Crypto collects investors, financing for their funds, CHF 100 million and established companies that Analysis are willing to work together with 15 start-ups and ultimately take Looking abroad Photo: pisonic Photo: them over. Over the past year, Results there has been significant progress in all these areas. This 18 Sectors has resulted in significantly more funds invested in 22 Phases significantly more start-ups, as our data shows, investors 28 Cantons and business angel clubs are becoming more active, and Swiss companies such as Scandit are attracting world- Trend renowned Silicon Valley investors (see page 21). In Switzer- 34 New funds arising land, new funds were closed in 2018 and others are under Pension funds discover the construction, as Thomas Heimann and Maurice Pedergnana benefits of VC show on page 34. Find out on page 37 which of these Background funds are involved in pension funds in a big way. Exits 40 Tokenisation are the focus on page 43, and business lawyer Christian Normalisation and a new Wenger explains on page 49 what needs to happen in perspective for the crypto scene development of the Swiss start-up ecosystem in order to Exits move forward and bring it to the global forefront.
    [Show full text]
  • University of Kent Case Study
    Breaking Down Barriers of International Student Recruitment CASE STUDY: UNIVERSITY OF KENT The University ‘‘We've been very pleased with the quality of enquirers generated by Goodwall and by these Founded in 1965, the University of Kent is recognized as one of the leading UK students' evident enthusiasm to engage with universities with excellence in education and the University. We're only part-way through our research. Ranked amongst the world's top 100 campaign but are glad to see the positive universities in the 2017 QS World University Rankings by Subject, and with the 4th highest impact that Goodwall seems to be having.’’ score for overall satisfaction (National Student Survey), Kent is a popular choice for Nathan Crouch international students. International Marketing Officer With the ambition to consolidate its ranking University of Kent, United Kingdom as a top UK university, the University of Kent is committed to building a global reputation in academic research and raise its profile globally to expand international student recruitment. 01 3 Objectives To expand the university’s global reputation and visibility in international markets, with a specific focus on the United States. To develop a cohesive strategy to position the University of Kent as a vibrant and inspiring institution to reach top-tier students that satisfy the university requirements. To enhance and deepen engagement with high profile students in the US and other markets. 02 Solutions and Results In August 2016, the University of Kent chose Goodwall as their Armed with the right tool, the recruitment and marketing student recruitment social platform based on Goodwall’s team worked collaboratively with Goodwall to create a student unique community of high profile international students and profile to target.
    [Show full text]
  • Randstad Annual Report 2018
    annual report 2018 passion for people. contents randstad at a glance management report governance financial statements supplementary information contents. randstad at a glance financial statements 4 key figures 2018 128 contents financial statements 6 message from the CEO 129 consolidated financial statements 8 about us 133 main notes to the consolidated financial statements 11 value creation model 155 notes to the consolidated income statement 12 our global presence 159 notes to the consolidated statement of financial 13 geographic spread position 14 passion for people 168 notes to the consolidated statement of 16 our ultimate goal cash flows 171 other notes to the consolidated financial statements management report 184 company financial statements 20 the world around us 186 notes to the company financial statements 28 our strategy and progress 190 other information 32 our value for clients and candidates 41 our value for employees supplementary information 46 our value for investors 200 ten years of randstad 51 our value for society 202 about this report. 58 sustainability basics 204 GRI content index. 70 reporting framework 208 global compact index. 72 performance 209 sustainability and industry memberships and 89 risk & opportunity management partnerships 210 certifications, rankings, and awards governance 212 highest randstad positions in industry associations 102 executive board 213 glossary 104 supervisory board 219 financial calendar 106 report of the supervisory board 220 history timeline 115 remuneration report 121 corporate governance annual report 2018 2 contents randstad at a glance management report governance financial statements supplementary information randstad at a glance. 4 key figures 2018 6 message from the CEO 8 about us 11 value creation model 12 our global presence 13 geographic spread 14 passion for people 16 our ultimate goal annual report 2018 3 contents randstad at a glance management report governance financial statements supplementary information key figures 2018.
    [Show full text]
  • Country City Beneficiary Website Proposal Acronym Long Name
    Country City Beneficiary Website Proposal Acronym Long Name EIC SME Instrument Phase 1 13 February 2019 cut-off date The first pellet stove with ultra-precise air supply RIKA INNOVATIVE Austria MICHELDORF www.rika.at cleanFIRE that reduces to near-zero the harmful emissions OFENTECHNIK GMBH produced during single room heating GROMA247 First fully autonomous fire detection and extinction Austria Schöndorf FIREOUT Branderkennung GmbH system for industrial settings VELLO BIKE+ Connected Multimodal Commuting for Austria Vienna VELLO GMBH www.vello.bike VELLO CMC Greener Cities The first foldable kid car seat to easy travel in Austria Wien Nachfolger 4 ALL family Weekend Magazin Wien Reinventing FMCG Market Research with Real-Life Austria Wien markt.weekend.at Weekend Shop GmbH Product Testing CogVis Software und Polling beehives to monitor parasitic infestations Austria WIEN www.cogvis.at hivepoll Consulting GmbH and gather pollination information D-FENCE: Deceptive Monitored Environments for Austria Wiener Neustadt CyberTrap Software GmbH www.cybertrap.com D-FENCE Cybersecurity in Enterprises Flameless affordable and high efficency micro Belgium HANNUT MITIS FLAMINCO turbine system for sustainable residential cogeneration Auto-Producing TV Broadcasting System for Sport Belgium Louvain La Neuve Keemotion SPRL https://www.keemotion.com/ Keemotion Events Belgium Uccle Kapitol SA Infobel Infobel Business Data Hub = GET + USE + IMPROVE CY.R.I.C CYPRUS RESEARCH Cutting-edge insoles with advanced characteristics Cyprus LEFKOSIA AND INNOVATION CENTER www.cneric.eu InsoFeet for medical and sports applications LTD Breakthrough self-charging remote monitoring Czech Nachod LEVEL, s.r.o. www.level.systems AxleRing device for smart rail freight wagons to enhance Republic sustainability of railway sector Czech Qualitative Jump in Customer Experience: Plzen SentiSquare s.r.o.
    [Show full text]
  • SECA Yearbook 2021
    SECA Yearbook 2021 SECA Yearbook - 2021 SECA Yearbook The Swiss Private Equity & Corporate Finance Association (SECA) is the representative body for Switzerland‘s private equity, venture capital and corporate finance industries. SECA has the objective to promote private equity and corporate finance activities in Switzerland. Meanwhile, SECA has a strong base of more than 500 members, which is composed of se- veral investment companies, banks, corporate finance advisors, auditing companies, management consultants, lawyers and private investors. SECA Yearbook 2021 May 2021 Publisher SECA – Swiss Private Equity & Corporate Finance Association Suurstoffi 1 CH-6343 Rotkreuz Production Druckerei Odermatt AG 6383 Dallenwil, Switzerland (www.dod.ch) Print run 800 Printed in Switzerland Cover Picture Adobe Stock Conception Maurice Pedergnana ([email protected]) Editor-in-Chief Jonas Brenner ([email protected]) For further questions: [email protected] / +41 41 757 67 77 SECA Yearbook 2021 Weiterbildung am IFZ Als Institut der Hochschule Luzern – Wirtschaft sind wir in der Schweiz das führende Fachhochschulinstitut im Finanzbereich. Seit über 20 Jahren bieten wir Finanzfachpersonen aus Unternehmen sowie Fach- und Führungskräften aus der Finanzbranche Weiterbildungen, Forschungs- sowie Beratungsdienstleistungen an. Wir legen Wert auf hohe Qualität und bieten als marktorientierte Weiterbildungsinstitution Dienstleistungen in einem attraktiven Preis-Leistungs-VerhältnisInserat an – oberstes ZielA5 sind zufriedene Kundinnen und Kunden. Master of Advanced
    [Show full text]
  • Development and Parameterization of a General Forest Gap Dynamics Simulator for the North-Eastern Mediterranean Basin (Greek Forest Species)
    ecological modelling 204 (2007) 439–456 available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel Development and parameterization of a general forest gap dynamics simulator for the North-eastern Mediterranean Basin (GREek FOrest Species) Nikolaos M. Fyllas a,∗, Oliver L. Phillips b, William E. Kunin c, Yiannis G. Matsinos a, Andreas I. Troumbis a a Biodiversity Conservation Laboratory, Department of Environment, University of the Aegean, Lesvos, Greece b Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK c Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, UK article info abstract Article history: This paper describes the development of a model, able to simulate the dynamics of typi- Received 23 February 2006 cal mountainous Mediterranean ecosystems, following the forest gap dynamics framework. Received in revised form The model has been adapted to the bioclimatic conditions and species traits of the North- 26 January 2007 eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin, based on forest inventories and climate data from Accepted 1 February 2007 Greece. With GREFOS (GREek FOrest Species), we tried to develop a generalized forest sim- Published on line 26 March 2007 ulator able to both perform realistically in the mountainous Mediterranean climatic zone, and to identify transitional zones with the lower elevation Mediterranean vegetation pro- Keywords: file. GREFOS follows the structure and “evolution” of the ForClim model, which was initially Forest gap model developed for Temperate Central European forests. A life history strategy parameter, which Mountainous Mediterranean forests affects (under a functional group type approach) the regeneration and mortality pathways Plant functional types of the species included in the model, has been incorporated.
    [Show full text]