Ulm University Techno-Economic Evaluation of Battery-Electric Taxis
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Ulm University Institute of Sustainable Corporate Management Techno-Economic Evaluation of Battery-Electric Taxis Technisch-ökonomische Analyse von batterie-elektrischen Taxis Dipl.-Wirtsch.-Ing. Robert Peter Kochhan Dissertation presented to the Faculty of Mathematics and Economics of Ulm University in support of the degree of Doctor of Economics and Management (Ph.D.) Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) Dean of the Faculty: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Alexander Lindner Chairperson of the Doctoral Committee: Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Sandra Ludwig Supervisors: 1. Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Martin Müller, Ulm University 2. Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Thomas Hamacher, Technical University of Munich Graduation: 7th of November 2017 “Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever. “ (Mahatma Gandhi) I Abstract For large cities, focussing on public transportation is crucial in order to limit congestions and to meet the mobility requirements of a growing urban population. In addition, locally emission-free battery-electric vehicles have the potential to make urban transport cleaner. However, many past studies about electric vehicles focus on private vehicles. Costs and user acceptance are essential for the adoption of electric vehicles. Comparing both costs and acceptance in the same environment at the same time is necessary to get a complete image of the viability of the new technology. Previous studies however mainly investigate either the actual costs of electric vehicles or the user acceptance. Thus, this work complements existing literature by investigating the viability of battery- electric taxi vehicles in an urban environment. For the study, data from the city state of Singapore was used where taxis are considered an important part of the public transportation system. Singapore is an ideal place with its highly efficient public transportation system and its masterplan to make the city a more sustainable place to live. The present work focuses on investigating the costs of battery-electric taxis compared to existing conventional ones. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model is set up and used to calculate the costs of taxis from their start of operation until their end-of-life as a taxi vehicle. This model is complemented by a revenue tool which is designed to estimate the taxi drivers’ earnings, assuming that they use a battery-electric taxi instead of their conventional one. In order to perform the estimation, data has been collected from a variety of existing literature sources as well as from taxi drivers in Singapore whose travel patterns and revenues were recorded. The entire approach is user-centred. It focuses on the costs of single taxi vehicles and the revenue of a taxi driver under different conditions. Regarding the acceptance of battery-electric taxis by its users, behavioural data was collected from both taxi drivers and passengers. Drivers were asked in personal interviews about their opinion of electric taxis, whereas an online survey was used to get an insight into the passengers’ views of electric taxis. The focuses of both surveys were the costs of taxis in order to be able to combine the results with the findings about the actual total cost of ownership of electric taxis. The results indicate that battery-electric taxis can be competitive compared to existing conventional taxis in terms of total costs. Although their acquisition costs may be high, operating costs are low due to low energy and maintenance costs. Battery costs and energy consumption are found to have a major impact on the competitiveness. With electric vehicle technology maturing over the coming years, battery-electric taxis are expected to become more competitive in the future. Regardless of the individual vehicle specifications, policies and regulations are found to be decisive for the success of electric taxis in Singapore. In particular, vehicle taxation plays an important role in determining which technology will be the winner. II On the other hand, the acceptance of battery-electric taxis is low by both taxi drivers and taxi passengers. For the drivers, short range and long charging times matter, although travel data suggests that these aspects should not be a major problem. Higher fixed costs (taxi leasing fee) combined with lower operating costs (electricity costs) compared to their current taxis are also not much appreciated. Passengers are generally not willing to pay more for a different ride experience and a more environmentally friendly ride in an electric taxi because electric taxis are not advantageous regarding the passengers’ main concerns – time savings. They are very sceptical towards minor increases of the flag- down fares of electric taxis compared to existing ones. Nevertheless, if it is possible to overcome the hurdle of acceptance, battery-electric taxis are promising. Taxi drivers must be convinced that electric taxis work for them. Trials which focus on letting taxis drivers and passengers get in touch with the new technology are an option. Hence, three directions for further activities are proposed. Firstly, the total costs of electric taxi vehicles should be targeted because costs and revenue are most crucial for the taxi business, in particular compared to private cars where other values that a car has to its user play a role so that costs may not be the most important criterion. In Singapore, vehicle taxation policies have the power to override the true costs so that electric vehicles can be favoured if this is desired. Secondly, future activities should focus on getting people in touch with electric vehicles. This should help to overcome false impressions and finally increase acceptance. And thirdly, electric vehicle infrastructure such as charging facilities needs to be in place for an adoption of battery-electric taxis. Without an appropriate charging infrastructure which specifically meets the requirements of a fleet of taxis, operating battery-electric taxis will not be possible. In addition to the main results, a brief overview of the environmental impact of battery- electric taxis is given. It is found that they have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which confirm the findings from previous studies. Battery-electric taxis are locally emission-free so that intra-urban traffic emissions are reduced. In addition, for the case of Singapore, the overall lifetime carbon emissions are lower, too, compared to the emissions from conventional taxis. Finally, the approach presented in this work is applicable in other locations or cities as well considering the similarity of taxi systems worldwide. Adaptions have to be made to the model and questionnaires in order to incorporate local particularities into the assessment such as vehicle taxation regulations and price levels. III Content 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Motivation .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective of the work ........................................................................................ 3 1.3 Outline of content and structure of the work .................................................. 4 2 Definitions................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Total cost of ownership and life cycle costing ............................................... 6 2.2 Willingness-to-Pay and Willingness-to-Accept ............................................. 10 2.3 Theory of planned behaviour ......................................................................... 12 3 State of knowledge ................................................................................................. 14 3.1 Electric vehicles .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.1 History of electric vehicles .......................................................................... 14 3.1.2 Electric vehicle technologies ...................................................................... 15 3.1.3 Battery technologies ................................................................................... 18 3.1.4 EV Charging Infrastructure ......................................................................... 20 3.1.5 Benefits and challenges of electric vehicles ............................................... 21 3.2 Taxi systems.................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 Taxi systems in different cities .................................................................... 23 3.2.2 Alternatives to traditional taxis .................................................................... 26 3.3 TCO of BEVs and conventional vehicles ....................................................... 26 3.3.1 Classification of TCO models for vehicles .................................................. 27 3.3.2 Previous individual vehicle TCO studies for private vehicles and taxis ....... 28 3.3.3 TCO of individual vehicles .......................................................................... 30 3.3.4 Differences between the TCO of ICEVs and BEVs ..................................... 32 3.4 WTP for and acceptance of EVs ..................................................................... 32 3.4.1 Methodologies to estimate the Willingness-to-Pay ....................................