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DISSERTATION TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING FOR PHEV BENEFITS TO SOCIETY, CONSUMERS, POLICYMAKERS AND AUTOMAKERS Submitted by Baha Mohammed Al-Alawi Department of Mechanical Engineering In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Summer 2012 Doctoral Committee: Advisor: Thomas Bradley Co-Advisor: William Duff Daniel Olsen Dan Zimmerle John Labadie Copyright by Baha Mohammed Al-Alawi 2012 All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING FOR PHEV BENEFITS TO SOCIETY, CONSUMERS, POLICYMAKERS AND AUTOMAKERS Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. ii The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Thomas Bradley, my advisor, for his extremely helpful guidance, support and encouragement. His countless hours spent for guiding both my research and writing has been extremely helpful for the successful completion of the dissertation. My appreciation also extends to his wife Dr. Kimberly Catton. I gratefully acknowledge my committee members, including Dr. William S. Duff, Dr. Daniel B. Olsen, Mr. Dan Zimmerle and Dr. John W Labadie, for their insightful suggestions, which were helpful for improving the thesis work. Also, thanks to Ms. Karen Mueller from Colorado State University and Ms. May Abdul Sattar from Saudi Arabia Cultural Mission for all of her assistance and support. I would like to thank Saudi Arabia Ministry of Higher Education for the scholarship, which helped me continue my studies. I would like to thank my wife Reem for being very understanding and supportive. My thanks go to my parents for their encouragement and continuous support. Finally, I would like to give a special thanks to my dad, Mohammed Al-Alawi, for his unending support and friendship without which this would not be possible. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ...........................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. xi Chapter 1- Introduction ..............................................................................................................1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................1 1.2 Project Overview .........................................................................................................1 1.3 Outline of this Document ............................................................................................3 Chapter 2- State of the Field and Research Challenges .............................................................6 2.1 The Integration of PHEV Technology in Automakers Fleets .....................................6 2.2 PHEV Total Cost of Ownership Modeling and Economic Cost/Benefits Analysis ...8 2.3 Market Penetration Rate Modeling ...........................................................................10 2.4 Multi-Criteria Decision Support System and Negotiation Process System ..............12 2.5 Research Questions and Tasks ..................................................................................18 2.5.1 Research Question 1: ................................................................................................19 2.5.1.1 Hypothesis 1.1 .......................................................................................................19 2.5.2 Research Question 2: ................................................................................................20 2.5.2.1 Hypothesis 2.1 .......................................................................................................20 2.5.3 Research Question 3: ................................................................................................21 2.5.3.1 Hypothesis 3.1 .......................................................................................................21 2.5.4 Research Question 4: ................................................................................................22 2.5.4.1 Hypothesis 4.1 .......................................................................................................22 2.6 Research Plan ............................................................................................................23 2.6.1 Phase 1: .....................................................................................................................23 2.6.2 Phase 2: .....................................................................................................................23 2.6.3 Phase 3: .....................................................................................................................23 2.6.4 Phase 4: .....................................................................................................................23 Chapter 3- Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulation Compliance Scenarios Inclusive of Plug in Hybrid Vehicles .......................................................................................24 3. Chapter Summary ......................................................................................................24 3.1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................24 3.2 Methods .....................................................................................................................27 v 3.2.1 Vehicle Classification ...............................................................................................28 3.2.2 CAFE Calculation .....................................................................................................29 3.2.3 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Incremental Costs ..................................................30 3.2.4 PHEV Fuel Economy ................................................................................................32 3.3 Baseline Results ........................................................................................................33 3.4 Discussion .................................................................................................................35