_ Change

In a Climate of Mobilization Researchers from various disciplines, from the natural sciences to the humanities, are joining together to advance knowledge of global change

Fabrício Marques

n the largest and most concentrated multidis- ciplinary effort ever undertaken in to advance knowledge of global climate change, state scientists from multiple dis- ciplines – from the physical and natural sci- ences to the humanities – are participating Iin FAPESP’s Global Climate Change Research Program (PFPMCG). Begun in August 2008, the initiative anticipates investments of R$100 mil- lion over a period of ten years – or approximately R$ 10 million annually – for ongoing basic and applied studies on global climate change and its impact on human life. This amount is likely to increase, since R$ 40 million has already been disbursed in the first three years alone. The balance of the first three years of the pro- gram is made up of research projects on a wide range of topics involving the natural, biologi- cal and social sciences. Several studies involve understanding the effects of human activity on changing rainfall patterns and on the increased concentration of gases in the atmosphere. The impact of fires on the sugarcane harvest and the influence of agricultural management practices on emissions of carbon dioxide from soil are also Flooding in the cities being studied. Other important subjects, such of Navegantes and as the vulnerability of the coastal areas north of Itajaí, , São Paulo to climate change and alternatives to in November 2008: the urban population will be introducing the so-called “green economy” are hardest hit by the effects also being studied. PFPMCG has 18 research of global climate change.

112 _ Special Edition FAPESP 50 YEARS projects and is aiming for more than a hundred. and Climatic Studies (CPTEC) of Brazil’s National At least two dozen projects are currently being Institute for Space Research (Inpe) and launched incorporated into the program under agreements in early 2012. “Tupã put Brazilian meteorology established with the Research Foundations of Rio on a par with major world centers,” says Osvaldo de Janeiro (Faperj) and (Facepe). Moraes, CPTEC’s general coordinator. “It will One of the most ambitious goals of the pro- be used for our work on climate predictions, but gram is to create a Brazilian Model of the Global will also be available to all research groups of Climate System, a system capable of doing sophis- the FAPESP program.” In 2011, Tupã ranked as ticated simulations of global climate phenomena. number 29 on the list of the 500 most powerful The need to develop national competency in this computers in the world. field is explained by the fact that today, computa- tional tools that are still limited and do not take Effects on natural systems into account key processes of Brazilian climate The projects linked to the program will use super- are being used to forecast the effects of climate computer simulations and apply them to subjects change. “In order for science to provide society from various disciplines, studying the impact of with reliable information, it is essential that we global changes and the most efficient ways of have a model that is not based on those of other mitigating their effects. Part of the studies ap- countries, but includes regionalized characteris- proved in the first call for projects, carried out in tics and data,” says Reynaldo Victoria, the execu- 2009, seeks to understand the effects of climate tive coordinator of the program and a professor change on natural systems. Reynaldo Victoria, for at the Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture example, leads a group of researchers analyzing (Cena), on the University of São Paulo (USP) the role of rivers on regional carbon cycles. His campus in the city of Piracicaba. project interfaces with another, coordinated by In order to use and refine this modeling pro- Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha, a professor at the gram, a US Cray supercomputer was purchased Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmo- for R$50 million (R$15 from FAPESP and R$35 spheric Sciences (IAG) of USP, designed to quan- from the Ministry of Science, Technology and In- tify carbon and water cycles in the Amazon - novation), which is able to perform 224 trillion forest, in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, and in úJO/ AE A R operations per second. Christened the Tupã, it two agro ecosystems, sugarcane and eucalyptus E A P ILI

F was installed at the Center for Weather Forecast plantations. “In previous projects, we made local

pESQUISA FAPESP _ 113 field measurements at experimental sites radiation balance, the in Amazonia. We now want to do them change in the mecha- Data collected in the on a larger scale and include the entire nisms of cloud forma- watershed,” says Rocha. “We are ana- tion and development South Atlantic will supply lyzing what enters, what stays or leaves and their impact on the Brazilian climate carbon in Amazonia, through a variety the hydrologic cy- of approaches, such as measurements of cle,” says Artaxo. Ac- model and support the the concentrations of greenhouse gases cording to him, data with sensors on aircraft, in river areas, are being collected exploration of pre-salt. on dry land, using a combination of cali- using satellite mea- brated models assimilating field data,” surements, atmo- he said. spheric modeling and Paulo Artaxo, a professor at the USP through monitoring stations in different Physics Institute, is now intensifying a locations: one near , another in line of research on which he has spent a , which is impacted by burn- considerable amount of time: the effects ing emissions, and a third in the Panta- on regional and global climate of the nal. “We are going to measure with un- aerosol particles emitted in Brazil. Aero- precedented detail the radioactive and sols can be formed naturally through optical properties of aerosol particles forest emissions or generated by human and their effects on cloud formation and activity, such as burning fossil fuels or development,” says the researcher. deforestation, which has a strong influ- ence on climate and on phenomena such The human dimension The Alpha Crucis as cloud formation and development. The call to researchers to study the oceanographic vessel, The project focuses on the Amazon and human dimensions of climate change purchased with support from FAPESP: impetus regions. “We are studying the yielded excellent results. Three of the for research on the physical and chemical properties of par- intended projects fit this profile. One relationship between ticles and their effects on atmospheric of them, presented by Daniel Hogan the ocean and climate.

114 _ Special Edition FAPESP 50 YEARS risk areas; if there is a minimum insti- A project led by Inpe researcher Gil- tutional/political structure to address berto Câmara aims to identify the in- these challenges, then why do the social stitutional actors linked to Amazonian choices, whether made individually or deforestation and study their behavior, collectively, always depend on human to build scenarios with more efficient activities sustained by oil and gas, or public policy impacts. “We call on in- occupying areas at risk, especially in stitutional actors, the organized groups protected areas of biodiversity? And of society that have influence on the why is there still so much hope placed occupation and use of land in Amazo- on regional development plans based nia. These actors include groups such on high carbon emissions, in addition as large planters of soybeans and other to other greenhouse gases?” commodities, livestock breeders, small farmers, predatory loggers, loggers that ccording to Costa Ferreira, ever follow management rules, wood industry since the project began it was as- workers, environmentalists, scientists Asumed that these answers would and settlers.” says Câmara. “Each seeks only be found through categories related to influence the federal, state and mu- to problems of scale – time and space – nicipal governments for its own benefit, and to multiple levels of human organi- adopting policies in its interest.” The as- zation in decision-making processes of sumption is that all are represented in the area. So there was a large investment the political struggle. Therefore, drafting in acquiring and processing high and laws to define land use in Amazonia and medium resolution images and terrain enforcing them depends on the relative surveys in the early years of the project. strength of each group. The change in “We already have data on biomass, de- the Forestry Code in 1994, which, in a mographic and forest transition, on the victory for environmentalists, increased minimum institutional structure already the protected area on private proper- present in the region, in addition to sur- ties in Amazonia from 50% to 80%, was veying and characterizing the actors and caused by a rate of deforestation which the local, regional and national decision- that year had reached 29,000 square ki- -making arenas.” lometers. But the ruralists, who were (1942-2010), a pioneer in the study of Professor Ricardo Abramovay, of the politically organized, prevented the law sociodemographic and environmen- School of Economics, Business Adminis- from being applied,” says Câmara. Ac- tal dynamics at the State University of tration and Accounting (FEA) at USP, is cording to him, the annual variation in (Unicamp) and in Brazil, and also examining the human dimension by deforestation rates is not well explained subsequently led by Lúcia da Costa Fer- coordinating a project that attempts to by statistical models, which attempt to reira, an ecologist and sociologist of survey the socioeconomic impact of cli- correlate the price of goods with defor- the Center for Environmental Stud- mate change, whose additional goal is to ested areas. “We are looking for a socio- ies and Research at Unicamp, is facing help formulate consistent public policies. anthropological understanding of the one of the more troubling dilemmas The initiative has several fronts. One of institutional actors in Amazonia and to posed by and them is the search for tools to help im- develop models using that knowledge in the world. Since coastal areas will prove the capacity to predict the social to build realistic scenarios.” be the first and hardest hit by extreme and economic effects of climate change. weather events, as was the case of Hur- A second focus is analyzing the private Impact on agriculture and fauna ricane Catarina, which hit the coast of sector’s willingness to respond to cli- Some projects follow a more applied di- Santa Catarina in 2004, Hogan decided mate change. “Many companies have ex- rection, seeking to understand how bio- to focus on medium-sized coastal cit- pressed their intention to reduce carbon logical systems in cultivated areas, such ies of São Paulo, “because they are less emissions in their production processes. as sugarcane, soybeans and eucalyptus, prepared than large cities to deal with We want to know if these intentions are disrupt carbon dioxide emission patterns. the problem,” he told Pesquisa FAPESP real and what their specific plans are,” Sui Mui Tsai, a Cena-USP researcher, magazine in May 2009. According to says Abramovay. Another front is analyz- manages a project that seeks to monitor Costa Ferreira, after a number of years ing the negotiation processes leading to the diversity and functional activities of of research, a question arises. “If sur- the formation of carbon credit markets, microorganisms impacted by deforesta- veys indicate the widespread perception which today are unstable. “We are also tion and land use changes on soybean that the influence of human activity on examining critical issues, such as sus- and sugarcane crops. The impact on the climate change is a fact; that the public tainable consumption. Our intention atmosphere of the Southeast region from is aware that coastal cities are vulner- is to map out how the production and the release of particulate material – very neil rabinowitz/www.neilrabinowitz.com able to extreme events and environmen- consumption model will be affected by fine particles of suspended solids and

photo tal disasters, in particular well-known climate change.” liquids in the air – is being investigat-

pESQUISA FAPESP _ 115 ed by project researcher Arnaldo Alves Cardoso, a professor at the Araraquara Chemistry Institute of São Paulo State Investments in people and University (Unesp). “Our region is very impacted by cane burning, but there are infrastructure in the 1990s still no studies that map the release of trained leaders in the study of particulate matter in the atmosphere coming from different sources, such as climate change. cities, industries and other stages of the agro-industrial process, and what the potential consequences for the environ- ment are,” says Cardoso. The group headed by Professor not occur. “The goal is to advance our was not alone, since there are research- Newton La Scala Junior of the School understanding of greenhouse gas emis- ers from the and Europe of Agrarian and Veterinary Sciences of sions from soil used in agricultural prac- poring over the same challenge. Animal UNESP at Jaboticabal is analyzing the tices. Several management systems in- physiology developed tools that have impact of agricultural management prac- terfere with carbon loss, and we are at- much to contribute to conservation and tices on CO2 emissions from soil in sug- tempting to more thoroughly classify climate change research,” said Navas. arcane production in interior areas of the emissions,” said La Scala. “Our goal is to study animal physiology São Paulo. “There are distinctive aspects To what extent is wildlife able to ad- in the context of climate extremes, tem- to CO2 emissions from soil, especially in just to temperature and rainfall patterns perature for example, to understand and agricultural systems. This emission var- altered by climate change? Professor even anticipate how animal populations ies in time and space, and is affected by Carlos Arturo Navas of the USP Biosci- would respond to climate change.” management, especially by soil prepara- ences Institute is coordinating a project tion. The goal is to map the role of dif- that seeks to identify this limit, particu- Critical mass for climate research ferent management practices on car- larly from the perspective of extreme Creating PFPMCG was made possible by bon dioxide emission from soil,” says La weather events. Navas sometimes inves- the critical mass of climate research de- Scala. The project is part of a series that tigates the plasticity of fauna physiology, veloped in Brazil over the past decades – La Scala’s group has conducted over the that is, their ability to adjust and adapt and FAPESP played an important role in last ten years. Soils used for farming in to environmental gradients -- to under- this effort. In the 1990s, the Foundation’s the period in which they were devoid stand, for example, how a typical popu- support enabled the training of human of vegetation are analyzed. In this stage, lation at the base of a mountain can lead resources and the creation of an advan- soil becomes a to populations in areas of higher altitude. ced research infrastructure, which hel- Tupã, the CO2 transmitter Last year, Navas completed a thematic ped to create national leadership in the supercomputer: because there project on this subject. “About four years study of global climate change at a time simulations to store is no vegetation ago I realized that this research know- when the subject was gaining impor- the Brazilian climate model and more present and pho- how would also be useful in relation to tance and momentum. Carlos Nobre, accurate weather tosynthesis does climate change. And I also noticed that I an Inpe climatologist and member of forecasts. PFPMCG’s executive coordination, cites two examples of that contribution. The first investment was in 1996, in Inpe’s Meteorological Instrumentation Labo- ratory (LIM) in the city of Cachoeira Paulista, which became a reference for researchers in environmental sciences and meteorology in Brazil. The second investment, in 1999, was the creation of a data and information system for the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Ex- periment in Amazonia (LBA), one of the world’s largest scientific experiments in the environmental area: a total of 156 re- search projects, developed by 281 natio- nal and foreign institutions. “It was the first time it was possible to gather data from a multidisciplinary experiment. I have no doubt that the program would not have been as successful without this system,” says Carlos Nobre, who

116 _ Special Edition FAPESP 50 YEARS Homes hit by a landslide in Teresopolis ( state) in January 2011: researchers investigate the vulnerability of cities to propose public policies.

was the first executive coordinator of PFPMCG and is currently the Secretary of Research and Development Policies and Programs for the Ministry of Scien- ce, Technology and Innovation (MCTI). “Its success was so great that it inspi- red databases for other programs, such as FAPESP’s Biota and PFPMCG,” he said. FAPESP, says Noble, was also a ma- jor source of funding for LBA, by spon- soring research projects for São Paulo scientists linked to the program, which is managed by the Ministry and coor- dinated by Inpe and the National Insti- tute for Amazonian Research (Inpa). It has partnerships with the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and many other institutions in the United States and Europe.

ince 2000, research on climate change in Brazil has increased and Sbecome more in-depth, which led to a set of original contributions and sig- nificant international exposure. Seve- ral São Paulo groups have stood out in this effort, with support from FAPESP. Progress was made, for example, in de- termining the role of fire as a factor in disrupting the balance between ecosys- tems and the atmosphere, in projects led by names such as Paul Artaxo, USP, Alberto Setzer and Karla Longo, Inpe researchers. “There have been enormous developments in the field,” says Carlos Nobre. Modeling how vegetation and climate are integrated has also advanced. Under the leadership of researchers su- ch as Carlos Nobre and Gilvan Sampaio, Inpe, and Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha, IAG-USP, it demonstrates the risks po- sed by climate change to maintaining 2. fabio motta/ae ar s Brazil’s major biomes such as Amazo- nia and the Cerrado. Understanding the environmental impacts on biogeoche- eduardo ce 1. mical cycles of sugarcane plantations,

photo especially on aquatic systems, under the

pESQUISA FAPESP _ 117 leadership of Luiz Martinelli, Cena-USP, PFPMCG-linked project, coordinated Drought in the Rio and the detailed balance of carbon emis- by Tércio Ambrizzi, IAG-USP, will even Negro region of the city sions through the use of biofuels, espe- use the ship this year. The objective is to of Iranduba (Amazonas state), near Manaus, in cially ethanol, under the leadership of analyze the impact of the Atlantic on the October 2010: extreme Isaias Macedo of Unicamp were also climate of South America in the twenti- weather events become original contributions. In oceanography, eth and twenty-first centuries. more frequent. research led by Paulo Nobre, of Inpe, and Edmo Campos, of the USP Oceanogra- Global debate phic Institute, has advanced the unders- Brazil’s consistent scientific output has tanding of how ocean currents circulate guaranteed it a prominent role in the glo- in the South Atlantic, with emphasis on bal scientific debate on climate change. the interaction between the Brazil and At the Planet Under Pressure conferen- Malvinas (Falklands) Currents. ce held at the end of March in London FAPESP and USP funded the purchase in preparation for Rio+20, a memoran- of a new oceanographic vessel for São dum of understanding was signed for Paulo state researchers, which has al- collaborative research on global climate so been recently added to the program. change by the research funding agen- Christened the Alpha Crucis, the vessel cies of the signatory countries known will be a seagoing research platform, as the Belmont Forum. One of the goals and will emphasize oceanographic, ma- of the group, comprising FAPESP and rine biodiversity and, of course, climate other major rese- change studies. “Use of the ship on sev- arch funding agen- eral research projects will enable us to cies for projects on Drafting of environmental explore the role of the South Atlantic climate change in on Brazilian and global climate,” says the world, is trying laws depends on the Reynaldo Victoria. Up until recently the to change the cour- relative strength of farmers, Alpha Crucis belonged to the University se of international of Hawaii, but was completely rebuilt at collaborative rese- workers, scientists and a shipyard in Seattle after its acquisi- arch on the topic tion. It can carry 40 people aboard, 25 through joint calls environmentalists. researchers and a crew of 15. A thematic for interdisciplina-

118 _ Special Edition FAPESP 50 YEARS s ry research. Launched in April, the first up the G8 (Group of Seven most devel- call for proposals has approximately €20 oped countries plus Russia) attended the From our archives ar imagen million in funding, of which €2.5 million first meeting. Since the second meeting will be invested by FAPESP, including in London in 2010, the group now has Climate of Brazil Issue No. 151 – September 2008 zoury / pul s zoury €1.5 million for research projects on wa- representatives from agencies of emerg- ter security and €1 million for research ing countries such as Brazil (represent- Energy Menu Issue No. 157 – March 2009 icardo A R on coastal vulnerability. The projects ed by FAPESP), China, India and South will be undertaken by Sao Paulo rese- Africa. “PFPMCG is an important mile- Eclectic Cast Issue No. 160 – June 2009 archers in these areas, in partnership stone to incentivize interdisciplinary with scientists from at least two other research in a strategic area for Brazil,” The Future of Nature and Agriculture Issue No. 164 – October 2009 of the forum’s participating countries. says Paulo Artaxo. “National and inter- Coordinated by the International national partnerships are being formed Avoiding Recurrent Misfortunes Issue No. 171 – May 2010 Group of Funding Agencies for Global under the program, which encourag- Change Research (IGFA), the Belmont es the internationalization of research Rajendra Pachauri: The Climate Man Issue No. 192 – February 2012 Forum was created in 2009 at a con- in São Paulo. Working together with The Voice of the Scientists at Rio+20 ference organized by the National Sci- FAPESP’s Biota and Bioen programs is Issue No. 193 – March 2012 ence Foundation (NSF), of the United also critical to structuring public policy States, and by the Natural Environment and establishing strategies to mitigate Research Council (NERC), of the United climate change, to be implemented in Kingdom, in the U.S. city of Belmont. our country. Such strategies require a Representatives of research funding solid scientific basis, and FAPESP’s role agencies from the countries that make is to promote them,” he said. n

Projects of FAPESP’s Global Climate Change Research Program

Project Coordination Investment

Effects of emissions on current and future rainfall patterns in Southeast Brazil – Arnaldo Alves Cardoso R$772.087,94 No. 2008/58073-5 (2009-2013) IG/Unesp Effects of global climate change of the Brazilian fauna: a conservation physiology approach – Carlos Arturo Navas Iannini R$1.092.786,44 No. 2008/57687-0 (2009-2013) IB/USP Urban growth, vulnerability and adaptation: social and ecological dimensions of climate change on the Lúcia da Costa Ferreira R$1.181.736,80 coast of São Paulo – No. 2008/58159-7 (2009-2013) Nepam/Unicamp Land use change in Amazonia: institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales – Gilberto Camara Neto R$1.194.720,00 No. 2008/58112-0 (2010-2014) Inpe/MCTI Carbon tracker and water availability: controls of land use and climate changes – Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha R$1.884.704,99 No. 2008/58120-3 (2009-2013) IAG/USP Impact of management practices on soil CO emission in sugarcane production areas, Southern Brazil – Newton La Scala Junior 2 R$528.986,32 No. 2008/58187-0 (2009-2012) FCAV/Unesp Aeroclima – direct and indirect effects of aerosols on climate in Amazonia and Pantanal – Paulo Eduardo Artaxo Netto R$2.535.758,04 No. 2008/58100-2 (2009-2013) IF/USP The role of rivers on the regional carbon cycle – Reynaldo Luiz Victoria R$1.073.273,97 No. 2008/58089-9 (2009-2013) Cena/USP Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies. Ricardo Abramovay R$115.089,90 No. 2008/58107-7 (2009-2013) FEA/USP Monitoring the microbial diversity and functional activities in response to land-use changes and Siu Mui Tsai R$1.017.172,18 deforestation under soybean and sugarcane cultivations – No. 2008/58114-3 (2009-2013) Cena/USP Generation of alcohol production scenarios to support the formulation of public policies that could be Jurandir Zullo Junior applied to the national sugar and alcohol industry in adapting to climate change – R$547.722,00 Cepagri/Unicamp No. 2008/58160-5 (2010-2014) Early Warning System for Emerging Infectious Diseases in Western Amazonia: technological innovation Manuel J. C. M. Paiva Ferreira in order to adapt to the adverse effects of global climate change on human health – No. 2008/58156-8 R$654.654,00 Unifran (2010-2014) Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option – José Antonio Marengo Orsini R$1.021.109,52 No. 2008/58161-1 (2010-2014) Inpe/MCTI The evaluation of energy efficiency and CO equivalent abatement potentials according to different Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi 2 R$40.710,00 technology dissemination policies: guidelines to policy-makers – No. 2008/58076-4 (2011-2013) Cocen/Unicamp Narrowing the uncertainties on aerosol and climate changes in São Paulo State - nuances-SPS Maria de Fatima Andrade R$1.646.883,47 2008/58104-8 (2011-2015) IAG/USP The evaluation of energy efficiency and CO equivalent abatement potentials according to different Maria de Fátima Andrade 2 R$1.646.883,47 technology dissemination policies: guidelines to policy-makers – No. 2008/58104-8 (2011-2015) IAG/USP Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System Carlos Afonso Nobre R$571.200,00 No. 2009/50528-6 (2011-2015) CPTEC/INPE Miniface climate-change impact experiment to analyze the effects of elevated CO and warming on 2 Carlos A. Martinez y Huaman photosynthesis, gene expression, biochemistry, growth, nutrient dynamics and yield of two contrasting R$1.154.426,05 FFCLRP/USP tropical forage species – No. 2008/58075-8 (2011-2015) Impact of the Southwestern Atlantic ocean on South American climate for the 20th and 21st centuries – Tercio Ambrizzi R$3.034.727,23 No. 2008/58101-9 (2011-2015) IAG/USP

pESQUISA FAPESP _ 119