_ CLIMATE CHANGE In a Climate of Mobilization Researchers from various disciplines, from the natural sciences to the humanities, are joining together to advance knowledge of global change Fabrício Marques n the largest and most concentrated multidis- ciplinary effort ever undertaken in Brazil to advance knowledge of global climate change, São Paulo state scientists from multiple dis- ciplines – from the physical and natural sci- ences to the humanities – are participating Iin FAPESP’s Global Climate Change Research Program (PFPMCG). Begun in August 2008, the initiative anticipates investments of R$100 mil- lion over a period of ten years – or approximately R$ 10 million annually – for ongoing basic and applied studies on global climate change and its impact on human life. This amount is likely to increase, since R$ 40 million has already been disbursed in the first three years alone. The balance of the first three years of the pro- gram is made up of research projects on a wide range of topics involving the natural, biologi- cal and social sciences. Several studies involve understanding the effects of human activity on changing rainfall patterns and on the increased concentration of gases in the atmosphere. The impact of fires on the sugarcane harvest and the influence of agricultural management practices on emissions of carbon dioxide from soil are also Flooding in the cities being studied. Other important subjects, such of Navegantes and as the vulnerability of the coastal areas north of Itajaí, Santa Catarina, São Paulo to climate change and alternatives to in November 2008: the urban population will be introducing the so-called “green economy” are hardest hit by the effects also being studied. PFPMCG has 18 research of global climate change. 112 _ SPECIAL EDITION FAPESP 50 YEARS projects and is aiming for more than a hundred. and Climatic Studies (CPTEC) of Brazil’s National At least two dozen projects are currently being Institute for Space Research (Inpe) and launched incorporated into the program under agreements in early 2012. “Tupã put Brazilian meteorology established with the Research Foundations of Rio on a par with major world centers,” says Osvaldo de Janeiro (Faperj) and Pernambuco (Facepe). Moraes, CPTEC’s general coordinator. “It will One of the most ambitious goals of the pro- be used for our work on climate predictions, but gram is to create a Brazilian Model of the Global will also be available to all research groups of Climate System, a system capable of doing sophis- the FAPESP program.” In 2011, Tupã ranked as ticated simulations of global climate phenomena. number 29 on the list of the 500 most powerful The need to develop national competency in this computers in the world. field is explained by the fact that today, computa- tional tools that are still limited and do not take EffecTS ON NATURAL SYSTems into account key processes of Brazilian climate The projects linked to the program will use super- are being used to forecast the effects of climate computer simulations and apply them to subjects change. “In order for science to provide society from various disciplines, studying the impact of with reliable information, it is essential that we global changes and the most efficient ways of have a model that is not based on those of other mitigating their effects. Part of the studies ap- countries, but includes regionalized characteris- proved in the first call for projects, carried out in tics and data,” says Reynaldo Victoria, the execu- 2009, seeks to understand the effects of climate tive coordinator of the program and a professor change on natural systems. Reynaldo Victoria, for at the Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture example, leads a group of researchers analyzing (Cena), on the University of São Paulo (USP) the role of rivers on regional carbon cycles. His campus in the city of Piracicaba. project interfaces with another, coordinated by In order to use and refine this modeling pro- Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha, a professor at the gram, a US Cray supercomputer was purchased Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmo- for R$50 million (R$15 from FAPESP and R$35 spheric Sciences (IAG) of USP, designed to quan- from the Ministry of Science, Technology and In- tify carbon and water cycles in the Amazon Rain- AE novation), which is able to perform 224 trillion forest, in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, and in ÚJO/ A R A operations per second. Christened the Tupã, it two agro ecosystems, sugarcane and eucalyptus E P ILI F was installed at the Center for Weather Forecast plantations. “In previous projects, we made local PESQUISA FAPESP _ 113 field measurements at experimental sites radiation balance, the in Amazonia. We now want to do them change in the mecha- Data collected in the on a larger scale and include the entire nisms of cloud forma- watershed,” says Rocha. “We are ana- tion and development South Atlantic will supply lyzing what enters, what stays or leaves and their impact on the Brazilian climate carbon in Amazonia, through a variety the hydrologic cy- of approaches, such as measurements of cle,” says Artaxo. Ac- model and support the the concentrations of greenhouse gases cording to him, data with sensors on aircraft, in river areas, are being collected exploration of pre-salt. on dry land, using a combination of cali- using satellite mea- brated models assimilating field data,” surements, atmo- he said. spheric modeling and Paulo Artaxo, a professor at the USP through monitoring stations in different Physics Institute, is now intensifying a locations: one near Manaus, another in line of research on which he has spent a Porto Velho, which is impacted by burn- considerable amount of time: the effects ing emissions, and a third in the Panta- on regional and global climate of the nal. “We are going to measure with un- aerosol particles emitted in Brazil. Aero- precedented detail the radioactive and sols can be formed naturally through optical properties of aerosol particles forest emissions or generated by human and their effects on cloud formation and activity, such as burning fossil fuels or development,” says the researcher. deforestation, which has a strong influ- ence on climate and on phenomena such THE HumaN DimeNsiON The Alpha Crucis as cloud formation and development. The call to researchers to study the oceanographic vessel, The project focuses on the Amazon and human dimensions of climate change purchased with support from FAPESP: impetus Pantanal regions. “We are studying the yielded excellent results. Three of the for research on the physical and chemical properties of par- intended projects fit this profile. One relationship between ticles and their effects on atmospheric of them, presented by Daniel Hogan the ocean and climate. 114 _ SPECIAL EDITION FAPESP 50 YEARS risk areas; if there is a minimum insti- A project led by Inpe researcher Gil- tutional/political structure to address berto Câmara aims to identify the in- these challenges, then why do the social stitutional actors linked to Amazonian choices, whether made individually or deforestation and study their behavior, collectively, always depend on human to build scenarios with more efficient activities sustained by oil and gas, or public policy impacts. “We call on in- occupying areas at risk, especially in stitutional actors, the organized groups protected areas of biodiversity? And of society that have influence on the why is there still so much hope placed occupation and use of land in Amazo- on regional development plans based nia. These actors include groups such on high carbon emissions, in addition as large planters of soybeans and other to other greenhouse gases?” commodities, livestock breeders, small farmers, predatory loggers, loggers that ccording to Costa Ferreira, ever follow management rules, wood industry since the project began it was as- workers, environmentalists, scientists Asumed that these answers would and settlers.” says Câmara. “Each seeks only be found through categories related to influence the federal, state and mu- to problems of scale – time and space – nicipal governments for its own benefit, and to multiple levels of human organi- adopting policies in its interest.” The as- zation in decision-making processes of sumption is that all are represented in the area. So there was a large investment the political struggle. Therefore, drafting in acquiring and processing high and laws to define land use in Amazonia and medium resolution images and terrain enforcing them depends on the relative surveys in the early years of the project. strength of each group. The change in “We already have data on biomass, de- the Forestry Code in 1994, which, in a mographic and forest transition, on the victory for environmentalists, increased minimum institutional structure already the protected area on private proper- present in the region, in addition to sur- ties in Amazonia from 50% to 80%, was veying and characterizing the actors and caused by a rate of deforestation which the local, regional and national decision- that year had reached 29,000 square ki- -making arenas.” lometers. But the ruralists, who were (1942-2010), a pioneer in the study of Professor Ricardo Abramovay, of the politically organized, prevented the law sociodemographic and environmen- School of Economics, Business Adminis- from being applied,” says Câmara. Ac- tal dynamics at the State University of tration and Accounting (FEA) at USP, is cording to him, the annual variation in Campinas (Unicamp) and in Brazil, and also examining the human dimension by deforestation rates is not well explained subsequently led by Lúcia da Costa Fer- coordinating a project that attempts to by statistical models, which attempt to reira, an ecologist and sociologist of survey the socioeconomic impact of cli- correlate the price of goods with defor- the Center for Environmental Stud- mate change, whose additional goal is to ested areas.