Social-Ecological Resilience on (Th e Bahamas)

A Field Trip Report – Summary

Arnd Holdschlag, Jule Biernatzki, Janina Bornemann, Lisa-Michéle Bott, Sönke Denker, Sönke Diesener, Steffi Ehlert, Anne-Christin Hake, Philipp Jantz, Jonas Klatt, Christin Meyer, Tobias Reisch, Simon Rhodes, Julika Tribukait and Beate M.W. Ratter

Institute of Geography ● University of Hamburg ● Germany

Hamburg 2012 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence ()

Introduction In the context of increasing natural or man-made governments and corporations. Recent island hazards and global environmental change, the studies have suggested limits in the interdiscipli- study of (scientific and technological) uncertain- nary understanding of long-term social and eco- ty, vulnerability and resilience of social-ecolo- logical trends and vulnerabilities. Shortcomings gical systems represents a core area of human-en- are also noted when it comes to the integration of vironmental geography (cf. CASTREE et al. 2009; local and traditional knowledge in assessing the ZIMMERER 2010). Extreme geophysical events, impacts of external stressors (e.g. MÉHEUX et al. coupled with the social construction and pro- 2007; KELMAN/WEST 2009). duction of risks and vulnerabilities (viewed as ha- In the Caribbean, small island coastal ecosy- zards), raise questions on the limits of knowledge stems provide both direct and indirect use values. and create long-term social uncertainty that has Indirect environmental services of coral reefs, sea to be acknowledged as such. Recent means of so- grass beds and coastal mangroves include the cioeconomic production and consumption have protection of coastlines against wave action and frequently led to the loss or degradation of ecosy- erosion, as well as the preservation of habitats stem services on which humans depend (HASSAN of animals including those of commercial impor- et al. 2005). In order to move towards resilience tance. Human activity threatens the regenerative and sustainability, significant changes thus need capacity of these inshore marine ecosystems, e.g. to be considered at multiple levels in emergency by pollution, reef degradation through chronic and environmental planning, policies and institu- overfishing and bomb fishing, land development tions. When it comes to diagnosing why social- (cf. Fig. 1), mangrove degradation and increased ecological systems develop sustainably or not, a nutrient and sediment run-off (LEWSEY et al. major challenge is to find common frameworks 2004; BRETON et al. 2006). With the added impact for investigating the dynamic interactions be- of external shocks such as hurricanes, many de- tween social systems integrated by governance graded reefs have undergone phase changes or and communication, and biophysical systems regime shifts (e.g. coral bleaching, macroalgae connected by material and energy flows (e.g. HA- domination), which is equivalent to erosion of the BERL et al. 2006; OSTROM 2009). ecosystem’s resilience (cf. GARDNER et al. 2003; Coastal and island ecosystems are some of the MUMBY 2007). most valuable and productive ecosystems world- Ecological and social vulnerability to such di- wide yet highly threatened (HASSAN et al. 2005). sturbances and disasters is influenced by the Numerous small island developing states (SIDS) build-up or erosion of resilience. Concepts of re- are sensitive to natural hazards such as landfall silience generally focus on the capacity of the sy- storms, flooding, tsunamis, increases in sea tem- stem to absorb shocks whilst still remaining func- perature and sea-level rise (PELLING/UITTO 2001; tional, as well as the system’s capacity of renewal UNFCCC 2007). Small islands sharing the ‘isola and development in coping with change and cri- effects’ (or ‘insularity’, cf. BAYLISS-SMITH 1988; sis (FOLKE 2006; GAILLARD 2010). An ecological ROYLE 2001) are particularly vulnerable to exter- resilience perspective (HOLLING 1973, 1986) has nal shocks and the impacts of social-ecological come to be embedded in theories of complex interplay. Climate and environmental change are adaptive systems based on multi-agent systems. some of the obvious concerns, but the social-eco- The question is how periods of gradual change logical vulnerability of small islands is exacerbated interplay with periods of rapid change and how by limited land-based resources, economic de- such dynamics interact across temporal and spa- pendency, emigration or manipulation by richer tial scales.

2 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 1: Urban and marina development in SE-Nassau, The Bahamas (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011)

In this report, the island of New Providence, system management, water and energy sup- The Bahamas, is regarded as a complex social- ply, land traffic, as well as environ- ecological system faced with environmental mental education as an adaptability attribute. In change and stressors. In the following we briefly order to comprehend agent behavior and inter- review ideas and concepts of complexity before action, we argue that understanding is required presenting approaches that can enrich research of the environmental knowledge systems held by on and also policy development for small islands those agent groups that shape natural resource and coastal communities. Our focus is on the so- utilization and hazard management. Such under- cioeconomic dimension of social-ecological sy- standing is important for developing flexible and stem dynamics. We address various subsystems, adaptive policy based on institutional and social i.e. natural hazard management, coastal eco- learning (BERKES 2009).

Complex Social-Ecological Systems in the Anthropocene The anthropocene is characterized by increasingly 2010). Accordingly the body of literature on inter- widespread and disruptive influence of humanity disciplinary and cross-scale notions and models on ecological systems (TURNER ET AL. 1990; VI- of coupled social-ecological systems has grown TOUSEK et al. 1997; EHLERS 1998, CRUTZEN/STO- rapidly. Although such concepts have been cri- ERMER 2000, EHLERS 2008; ZALASIEWICZ et al. ticized because of empirical and analytical pro-

3 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas) blems (WALTERS/VAYDA 2009: 540), research on (so-called emergence, e.g. FLIEDNER 1997, 1999; human-environment interactions based on theo- RATTER 1998, 2006, 2012). Emergent properties ries of complex systems is gaining increasing ac- display unique qualities and result from the ability ceptance (e.g. BERKES/FOLKE 1998; GUNDERSON/ of complex systems to organize themselves across HOLLING 2002; REDMAN et al. 2004; HABERL et al. time and space (self-organization). System ele- 2006; OSTROM 2009; MORAN 2010; EVANS 2011). In ments also have a capacity for learning and self- human geography, theories concerned with com- reinforcement, enabling them to adapt to distur- plex systems have been of interest for about two bances (HOLLAND 1995; LEVIN 1999). Non-linear decades (e.g. FLIEDNER 1997, 1999, 2010; RATTER interactions of system components can produce 1998, 2001, 2006, 2012; FUNNELL/PARISH 1999; unexpected dynamics and give rise to multiple POSSEKEL 1999; THRIFT 1999; MANSON 2001; stable basins of attraction (HOLLING 1973). These CHAPURA 2009). There are different, sometimes ‘attractors’ or ‘regimes’ of system behaviour may conflicting notions of complexity, as ‘the value of exceed critical mass thresholds or tipping points, complexity exists in the eye of its beholder’ (MAN- resulting in qualitative regime shifts or leading sy- SON 2001: 412). But as this is ‘a body of theory that stem trajectories to so-called bifurcation points. is preternaturally spatial’ (THRIFT 1999: 32), it can The resilience of the system can be described as be of relevance for further geographical analysis. the ability to tolerate disturbance within the same In general, complexity research is about non- domain of attraction, the ability to maintain iden- linear dynamics and relationships between con- tity, and the degree to which it can build capaci- stantly changing entities. It asks how systems ty for learning and adaptation (e.g. FOLKE 2006; evolve over time due to the interaction of their CUMMING 2011). constituent elements (MANSON 2001: 406). Basic In this report, we draw on the heuristic models notions are indeterminism and the absence of pre- of the adaptive renewal cycle and panarchy (GUN- diction, irreversibility, uncertainty and surprise. DERSON/HOLLING 2002), which are embedded The idea focuses on the operation of within-level in the theory of complex adaptive systems and and cross-system linkages, giving importance to which we regard as appealing concepts for un- scale both at the spatial and temporal level. Com- derstanding and interpreting social-ecological sy- plexity stresses the existence of diverse networked stem behaviour. Developed from the perspective time-space paths and frequent disproportio- of ecology, the adaptive renewal cycle describes nateness between causes and effects (URRY 2003: four functions or phases of adaptive change (Fig. 7). It examines the qualitative characteristics of 2). The r phase represents ‘exploitation’, in which system component behavior, which is largely limi- colonization takes place. In a broader sense, it is ted to local interactions. Thus, complex systems a phase of entrepreneurial exploitation, growth are more defined by relationships than by their and exponential change. It is succeeded by the constituent parts (MANSON 2001). Dealing with K phase of ‘conservation’, characterized by accu- these systems demands a special adaptive ma- mulation and storage of energy and material, or nagement approach (RATTER 2001). organizational consolidation, growing stasis and Complex non-linear interactions may occur less flexibility. These two controlling functions re- through feedback processes which can be under- present traditional views in ecology and may be stood as intricately interlinked loops within a lar- perceived as the fore loop of the cycle. Two subse- ge network. As a result of these processes, system quent phases can be added as the back loop. The elements may re-form into a larger, relatively au- rapid Ω phase of ‘release’ depicts the collapse or tonomous unit, although this process cannot be creative destruction of the system. The fourth α explained in terms of the elements themselves phase of ‘reorganization’ stands for restructuring,

4 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

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intermediate sizesize and and speed speed serva con tion

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t l o e o n x p l o i t a t i v r e l e a s e e r entrepreneurial exploitation, growth, exponential change small and fast Fore Loop organizational consolidation, growing stasis, less flexibility

collapse, creative destruction Back Loop re- or de-structuring, novelty, renewal

Fig. 2: Heuristic models of the adaptive renewal cycle and panarchy (Modified from Gunderson/Holling 2002, Graphic: C. Carstens) novelty and renewal and symbolizes the begin- of nested system dynamics. It depicts interactions ning of a new cycle. The stylized fracture repre- within and across spatiotemporal scales, between sents a possible flip into a different system. The large and slow and small and fast structures as arrows show the speed of the flow in the cycle, well as top-down and bottom-up relations. Out where the short arrows indicate slow and the long of the potentially multiple interactions, two con- arrows rapid change. Resilience decreases when nections are emphasized which are important for the cycle develops towards K and increases in the adaptive capacity. The ‘revolt’ arrow in Fig. 1 sug- phase of reorganization α. gests a cascade effect where small and fast events The metaphor of the adaptive renewal cycle has trigger a critical change in large and slow cycles. been extended to the model of panarchy, which The ‘remember’ connection facilitates restructu- describes a cross-scale, nested set of the four phase ring, drawing upon the experience and potential adaptive cycles. In contrast to the term ‘hierarchy’, of maturity accumulated by a larger and slower which commonly implies a rigid, top-down struc- system in its K phase. Consequently, panarchical ture, panarchy – derived from the Greek god of na- relations can shape the adaptive capacities and ture Pan – is to represent the creative and destruc- opportunities for resilience (ibid.). tive, adaptive, sustaining and evolutionary nature

5 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Methodology and Research Site Humans are the constituent elements in the social networks are essential in that they connect mul- sphere of a social-ecological system. They orga- tiple levels and sources of information. However, nize in collectives, composed of individual agents bringing together different forms of knowledge is that have limited information about the system as a difficult task (ibid.). a whole. They also have distinct views, roles and So far only a limited number of studies have agendas. It is their interactions at the micro-level been undertaken on adaptive cycles and panar- (locally in space and time) that lead to emergent chical relations of small island social-ecological structures at the macro-level (RATTER 2006, 2012). systems (e.g. BUNCE et al. 2009). In this report, we Agents self-organize to fulfill certain functions of examine the island of New Providence, The Baha- the system such as resource allocation and decisi- mas, as a case study. Focusing on different spa- on making, a process which requires certain forms tial and temporal scales, various social-ecological of knowledge, norms and power relations. The subsystems are analyzed. Management practices management of a complex, constantly changing are highlighted in each case, taking into account social-ecological system demands a wide range various systems of knowledge generation and of knowledge, which is why knowledge produc- communication, forms of organization and net- tion, learning and uncertainty play a key role works. We also intend to cover the role of spati- when it comes to developing policies for resilient al-temporal cross-scale processes. The aim is to system dynamics (e.g. BERKES 2009). Often, social better understand the principles of the system’s

80° W 78° W 76° W 74° W The Bahamas

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80° W 78° W 76° W 74° W HAITIDOM.REP.72° W 70° W Fig. 3: The Commonwealth of The Bahamas (Cartography: C. Carstens)

6 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 4: Satellite image of New Providence (Image: Google Earth 2012)

Fig. 5: Urban Nassau (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011) dynamics (or adaptive renewal cycle) and to iden- 20 m, resulting in an ‘extremely important mari- tify potentials to enhance resilience. ne resource with both ecological and economic The Commonwealth of The Bahamas (Fig. 3) value’ (BUCHAN 2000: 94). According to the latest may be regarded as an extended coastal zone. It census (2010), the country’s population has grown consists of over 3000 low-lying carbonate islands, by 16.5 % between 2000 and 2010 and now stands cays and rocks that comprise the largest tropical at about 354,000 (Department of Statistics 2011). shallow water area in the Western Atlantic. Most Apart from banking and finance, the economy is of the Bahamian waters have a depth of less than dominated by two interrelated sectors. The first

7 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

● System ● Risk, uncertainty ● Social networks (size, components, boundaries) ● Adaptation ● Power relations ● Feedback ● Renewal, re-organization ● Institutions ● Change ● Thresholds ● Norms (environmental and social, ● Cross-scale interactions ● Knowledge systems gradual and rapid) ● Emergence ● Communication ● Path dependence ● Connectivity ● Memory ● Self-organization ● Diversity ● Learning ● Disturbance, stressors ● Social agents ● Innovation

Table 1: Key categories of analysis is tourism whose output accounts for some 40 stems (panarchy). Table 1 shows the key analytical % of the economy. Tourism has shown continuo- categories applied. us recovery since the 2009 world-wide recession In the following, we present findings with re- (Central Bank of The Bahamas 2012) although the gard to natural hazard management, coastal sector is not significantly diversified, specializing ecosystem management, water and energy sup- essentially coastal ‘3S tourism’ (Sun, Sand, Sea) ply, land traffic, tourism and environmental edu- and a single type of visitor. The sector shows re- cation. In investigating the different subsystems markable resilience, having represented a major and ‘adaptability attributes’ as comprehensively pillar of the national economy for decades in spite as possible, we aimed at maximum methodical of stressors like hurricanes, 9/11 or financial crises plurality, drawing on complexity literature with (cf. CLEARE 2007). Second are the interrelated real a geographical focus, interdisciplinary island stu- estate and construction sectors, e.g. of tourist re- dies and various materials from The Bahamas, e.g. sorts and new and second homes, which account socioeconomic statistics, historical records as well for approximately 25 % of the gross value added as published and unpublished reports and plans (2011, Department of Statistics 2012). Socially, The of governmental and non-governmental agen- Bahamas are characterized by diversity, fragmen- cies. In addition, in-depth semi-structured inter- tation and informality of the social sphere. The views were conducted with government officials, environment is fundamental in the construction experts of semi- and non-governmental organi- of identities (BETHEL 2002; STORR 2004). Our re- zations (NGOs) and academics with direct or in- search site, Nassau/New Providence, is the capital direct influence over policy formation. Interviews and the central urbanized area of the archipelago were conducted in Nassau/New Providence duri- (Fig. 4 and 5). Currently, it comprises a population ng two weeks of fieldwork in September and Oc- of 249,000 with a population density of 1200/km² tober 2011. Respondents represented the fields of (Department of Statistics 2010). emergency preparedness and management, en- Against this background, we address New Pro- vironmental planning, management and conser- vidence as a complex social-ecological system en- vation, water, electricity and traffic management, gaged in an adaptive renewal cycle and compo- tourism, meteorology, ecology, marine biology, sed of multiple subsystems shaped by interacting geography, history, economics and sociology. ecological and social components. These interac- These inquiries were supplemented by random tions produce outcomes that affect specific sub- population surveys as well as (focus) group dis- systems and their constituent elements, as well as cussions (cf. Fig. 6-10). The support of all respon- other, smaller and/or larger, social-ecological sy- dents is gratefully acknowledged.

8 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 6: Group discussion at the College of The Bahamas (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011)

Fig. 7: Group discussion with a member of the Bahamas National Trust at the Harold & Wilson Ponds National Park (Photo: J. Tribukait 2011)

Fig. 8: Group discussion at the BEST Commission (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011)

Fig. 9: Interview situation (Photo: S. Ehlert 2011)

Fig.10: Interview situation (Photo: S. Ehlert 2011)

9 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Results and Conclusion From a systems perspective, natural disasters can as the main agents. In the case of a disaster, The be regarded as perturbations to a social system. Bahamas can also tap international assistance Tropical storms and hurricanes are a major natural through international connections and co-opera- threat for the population of New Providence and tions, increasing its resilience to natural hazards. a cause of large-scale ecosystem disturbance. The International connections include relations with long-term risk posed by an event, and the uncer- US agencies, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency tainty associated with it depend on awareness, Management Agency (CDEMA), the Panamerican perception and knowledge of the event, as well as Disaster Response Unit (PADRU) as well as the the actions taken and adaptation to disaster. Ha- International Federation of the Red Cross. These zard memory and learning from experience play connections contribute to more efficient handling a pivotal role in improving future disaster policy of response measures against the unknown cha- responses and institutional capacities. racteristics of an approaching hurricane as well as Resilience can be defined as the ability of the faster recovery of the affected areas. Interestingly, New Providence population to deal with shocks our surveys reveal that a hurricane event is not and persist after a hurricane-based system distur- only viewed as a danger or obstacle to develop- bance. New Providence society was analysed in ment but also as an opportunity for positive chan- terms of its ability to immediately deal with shock, ge by many agents. recover from shock, learn for future disasters and To increase social-ecological resilience on New restore societal conditions to ‘normal’ after a hur- Providence, various knowledge systems and ricane event. A cycle of four phases of emergency knowledge transmission need to be maintained management can be identified. ‘Preparedness’ at a high level. This can be done through all-year- and ‘mitigation’ measures in the potentially af- round institutional educational programs, such as fected area have to be implemented to achieve giving talks in schools or other public institutions. an efficient ‘response’ and ‘recovery’-phase. The The link between the subsystems of natural ha- emergency management system is a complex net- zard management and education is thus crucial in work of public, private and non-profit organisa- terms of awareness-raising. At an individual scale, tions and individuals. Agents in the system there- social networks are important means of support fore comprise not only the national emergency for the local population, enabling knowledge institutions but also numerous other entities in transfer as well as mutual help and support before, the subsystem as well as in larger scale and smal- during and after a hurricane event. Apart from the ler scale systems. institutional scale, individual-scale connectivity is Findings show that the population of New Pro- thus another important aspect of natural hazard vidence has learned to live with the constant ha- management. zard of hurricanes. So far, numerous efforts have The link between the subsystems of natural ha- been made to increase coping and adaptation zard management and transport and road traffic capacity (cf. Fig. 11). Preparedness and mitigation only becomes visible in its entirety after a hurri- measures include adaptation of building codes cane has hit the island of New Providence. After as well as education to enable and improve the heavy rainfall, failures in the drainage system as short-term response during a hurricane event. In- well as excessive soil sealing on New Providence formation and warning mechanisms are well esta- induce several problems which affect both sub- blished and maintained by the National Emergen- systems. Streets and homes are inundated due to cy Management Agency (NEMA), the Red Cross soil sealing in densely populated areas. This can and the Bahamas Department of Meteorology result in pollution of drinking water and problems

10 Fig 11

- - The vulnerability of mangroves and coral reefs is is reefs coral and mangroves of vulnerability The ecosystems ecosystems support traditional and commercial fisheries. Shocks affecting the ecosystems may be hurricanes and storm waves as well as vari- defined interplay the externalof by shocks, trends in ecosystem development, and social agent’s ouskinds ofman-made pollution. Moreover,coral reefs are affected by bleaching events, with fire and construction representing significant threats mangroves. for awareness of ecosystem functions and manage ment practices ‘Remember and revolt capacities’ adapt. to within ecosystems the broader of socio-ecologicalability system the also does as role, a play These indicators determine Newresilience with Providence’s regard to coral reefs groves. Analysis and shows man that existing mangroves have greater than resilience coral reefs. However, due fact is to this large that parts fo of mangrove restsbeenhave removed andtheremaining small 11 ------Social-Ecological (The Bahamas) Providence New Resilienceon Coral and mangrove ecosystems can

system of natural hazard management to the sub the to management hazard natural of system system of water supply. These aspects also need to be considered in emergency on e.g. the enforce necessary, is research Further management. ment of building codes or comparison Providence of and New the Bahamian ‘family islands’ in resilience. of terms significantly contribute to shoreline protection in case of a tropical storm or hurricane en event, hancing social-ecological resilience as a result. Drawing on an ecosystem services these ecosystems were further approach, examined for ex ternal stressors, system functions, agents’ know ledge and awareness of these systems, as well as use and management practices. According to our respondents, the main functions of and coral mangroves reefs are the provision and tion of coastal habitats. As protec a cultural service, the strategies management disaster short-term and Long-term 11: Fig. C. Meyer) Bornemann, J. Graphic: and (Draft sub the linking water, waste of discharge the with Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 12: New Providence – development of ecosystems (mental map) (Draft and Cartography: J. Biernatzki, P. Jantz) patches are strictly protected. The ecological island of Andros (see below and Fig. 13), all in- function of the remaining coastal mangroves for land wetlands on New Providence are freshwater the island is negligible. In contrast, coral reefs are based. They fulfil an important function as wa- more threatened at present but may have grea- ter catchments, influencing the condition of the ter significance in terms of resilience-enhancing island’s freshwater lens. With the help of plants functions and services. Especially in the context growing in these areas, e.g. mangroves, excess of coastal protection, existing reefs play a more nutrients are removed from the water before it important role than mangroves. But the current reaches the ground water table. During the rainy trend of degradation (cf. environmental experts’ season, inland wetlands can collect and store wa- mental map, Fig. 12) has a negative effect on the ter away from homes and roads. Nevertheless, a island’s social-ecological resilience and, thus, has lot of building was and is still done along these to be taken seriously. A promising strategy may be shallow basins. Consequently, the ecosystem’s to work on remember and revolt capacities within ability to prevent flooding is diminished. Further society to reduce vulnerability and support adap- investigation in the field of inland wetlands would tability in regard to the services made available by provide a new perspective on socio-environmen- coral reefs and mangroves. tal interconnections. A different insight into socio-ecological rela- Water and electricity supply are crucial func- tions with an impact on New Providence’s resi- tions of the small island social-ecological system. lience is gained from analysing the island’s inland In a first step, we tried to show the structure of wetlands. Although New Providence receives a both subsystems and identify their main stressors. significant part of its (drinking) water from the In a second step, we focused on the interactions

12 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 13: Water barge from Andros Island at Arawak Cay, Nassau (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011) between each subsystem and the main island sy- the majority of the population consumes bottled stem, the perception of stressors and external ef- drinking water – and service water supply has also fects as well as the resulting learning effects. The modified the system. findings have lead to the conclusion that the sub- Although various stressors such as dependence system of water supply on New Providence is cur- or increasing costs affect the system, it can be rently situated in the exploitation phase (r phase) stated that in general, water supply on New Pro- of the adaptive cycle. A previous reorganization vidence is resilient at the present time. This also was accompanied by a regime shift because de- results from the system’s agents’ willingness and pletion of groundwater resources on New Provi- ability to adapt, learn and improve. According to dence led to a new way of obtaining fresh water, governmental plans, the stressing effect of import i.e. its import from another island (Andros) and dependence will be removed through further the generation of freshwater through desalinati- expansion of desalination. But as this procedure on. Nonetheless, the formerly dominant way of relies on the input of electricity, future resilience obtaining freshwater, the exploitation of ground- of water supply will heavily depend on the stabi- water sources, still plays a minor role in the sub- lity of the subsystem of electricity supply and the system. Today’s water supply on New Providence increasing prices within this specific subsystem thus relies on the three pillars of desalination, im- which are determined by the fuel price develop- port and groundwater abstraction, with desalina- ment. Awareness of this growing financial stres- tion providing the largest share. The regime shift sor emerging from the growing connection with changed the linkages between the main system the subsystem of electricity supply seems to be and the subsystem and also between the subsy- low, especially since service water is still provided stem and other subsystems. Water supply took at an acceptable price due to public subsidies. on a new role within the systemic interlinkages Similarly, the perception of stressors concerning (‘panarchy’) on New Providence and in The Baha- the environment as resource base is not very pro- mas as a whole as an intertwined island collective, nounced – neither in the subsystem represented especially on account of a new dependency on by experts, nor in the main system represented water import. The separation of drinking water – by government and consumers. With respect to

13 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 14: Electricity supply – risks in the transmission grid (Draft and Compilation: S. Klatt, S. Rhodes, J. Tribukait) groundwater pollution as the most important able energies, especially the use of solar energy, environmental stressor, it seems evident that the are part of this debate which involves bodies of sewerage and drainage system should be up- experts and the island’s public as the main agents. graded, not least because the latter also plays an However, the system is still conventionally run so important role in handling heavy rains and storm far. At a small scale, an option has been created events (see above). Small-scale, decentralized so- for using solar power, e.g. for heating water, by lutions may be an option for New Providence in introducing a law that permits the production of the sense of closed-cycle-applications that allow a limited amount of energy for private purposes. for the use of wastewater. Another way of impro- The static position of the system implies it has ving the subsystem’s resilience could be to up- reached the end of the K phase of the adaptive grade public water quality in order to reverse the cycle, suggesting a regime shift may be immi- separation between service water and drinking nent which could change the structure of the water. subsystem. Since the stressors are predominantly The subsystem of electricity supply is in a diffe- economic, the likelihood of a system shift largely rent phase of stability. Although the transmission depends on the development of fossil fuel prices grid shows vulnerability to tropical storms and and investment costs for renewable energies. Ne- hurricanes (Fig. 14), the stressors to the system vertheless, the electricity supply system can be are predominantly economic. Rising fuel prices described as resilient because it is guided by natio- lead to an excessive increase in operation costs, nal government which ensures electricity supply leading to a growing debate on introducing alter- through price regulation. native methods of electricity generation. Renew-

14 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 15: Daily traffic jam in Nassau (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011)

Dependence on fossil fuel prices was identified The motorized land transport system of New as the strongest connecting element between Providence is currently in a state of growing sta- both supply systems. A measure under conside- sis (K phase). Many urban roads are characterized ration to overcome fossil fuel dependence is the by temporary gridlocks, confining agents’ mobi- construction of ocean thermal energy conversion lity patterns (Fig. 15). The main reason for this is (OTEC) plants. OTEC allows for the co-production the predominance of private cars in the island’s of energy and drinking water without expensive transport system. Although local jitneys also play fossil fuel input. Admittedly, the investment is a role, the car is the dominant mode of passenger very expensive and hence only realistic if there is transport. Apart from offering comfort, car ow- a sharp increase in fossil fuel prices. The exchange nership is a symbol of prestige on the island. Di- with the main island system plays a key role in de- rect stressors on the motorized transport system termining the resilience of both supply systems. include all factors impeding traffic flow, whilst The main system’s need for the subsystems’ pro- unused potentials such as public transport re- ducts (water and electricity) is the most powerful present indirect stressors. Road construction and stabiliser for both supply systems. At the same maintenance activities can be identified as stabili- time, the desire to keep down costs and prices is a zers, but in the short-run they also act as stressors, stressor for both subsystems. Cost regulation can e.g. further loss of flow capacity caused by road thus be identified as the main factor influencing works. decisions and actions in both subsystems. This The factors influencing the traffic system’s -res makes the island’s income a key stabilising factor ilience include the increasing number of vehicles for both supply systems. Accordingly, the ove- on the island, the modal split, traffic planning and rall significance of the subsystem of tourism as a policy, the overall concept of transport of the aut- main income generator and stabilizing force has horities, the attractiveness of traffic alternatives, to be emphasized. In spite of the financial pres- the role and diversity of the agents involved (cf. sure, both supply systems are currently far from Fig. 16), (changing) social norms and learning collapse. A conclusion is that key agents in the capacities and, predominantly, transport costs. main island social-ecological system put much Based on the indexing of various analytical cate- effort into their stability because of their overall gories it can be assumed that the subsystem road importance. traffic is at present highly vulnerable due to capa-

15 Fig. 16

Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 16: Motorized traffic system – agents and connectivity (Draft and Graphic: S. Denker, T. Reisch)

city utilization and sensitivity to disturbance. How- same time. Yet small steps are recommended in ever, an intact road transport system is neces- order to avoid shocks in public perception as well sary for modern economies and the mobility of as monetary stress for disadvantaged groups and its citizens, and greater disturbances would affect the state’s finances. other sectors of the economy and areas of socie- The environment does not play an important ty. Ecological issues are of prominent concern in role in the mindsets of tourism agents either. the development of the transport system, but the While the natural environment is predominantly environment does not play a major role in the va- viewed as scenery and as a main resource for tou- rious agents’ mindsets. rism, its protection is not a big issue for agents in In order to enhance the resilience of the trans- the tourism sector. Our population survey and ex- port system, changes in the perception and con- pert interviews show that economic benefits are ception of mobility seem essential. A possible way generally considered more important than envi- to solve the problem of the increasing number of ronmental protection. The very positive percepti- vehicles on the island is to advance the attractive- on of tourism may prevent people from seeing its ness of public transport, e.g. by means of island- negative impacts. Tourism is the backbone of the wide coverage, reliable schedules as well as high Bahamian economy and thus a dominant factor quality standards applied throughout. The dilem- in everyday life on New Providence. Findings indi- ma may be that such actions can result in higher cate that the subsystem of sun, sand and sea (3S) prices for transportation or increased taxes. So hotel tourism creates an outstanding and high- the establishment of a state-run public transport ly competitive destination for a special type of has to be carried out with the right sense of pro- tourist. New Providence possesses a specialized portion. Another way to deal with the problem is tourism orientation and image and achieves high to lower the advantages that individual motori- consumer satisfaction. Proven and trusted con- sation brings. This can be organised by creating cepts have made tourism a long established and longer travel times for cars compared to busses reliable industry which has shown the ability to covering the same distance, e.g. by introducing absorb shocks and regenerate rapidly, e.g. from a bus lanes, or by increasing the monetary benefit decrease in tourist numbers in the wake of 9/11 of public transport. Both can be carried out at the or hurricane events. There is confidence in the

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Fig. 17: Stakeholders in the tourism subsystem (Draft and Graphic: L.-M. Bott, S. Diesener) system’s ability to recover and in the approved susceptible to global changes or single events in tourism strategies that have been successful over important source regions of tourists (USA). More- a long period of time. However, different levels of over, the sector has a very low degree of diversi- impact should be noted. While the dominant fo- fication. Nevertheless, the size of the system (no. reign-owned companies have been able to absorb of visitors) and its successful image largely keeps shocks, smaller local tourism related businesses it from being vulnerable. Because of this, no com- had greater difficulties in coping with decreasing prehensive development strategy, plan for coping numbers of visitors. The differences in size also re- with disturbances or plans to diversify the sector flect power relations and structural influence. The have been developed by the responsible authori- recent economic crisis is a long-term disturbance ties. Some efforts have been made with regard to which has forced numerous small and medium- spatial diversification (e.g. island branding), pro- sized enterprises to give up. Nevertheless, the duct diversification (e.g. ecotourism) and diversi- tourism system as a whole, consisting of various fication of the visitor’s source regions (e.g. Latin stakeholders as shown in Fig. 17, will remain a reli- America) as processes of innovation and learning. able economic vehicle that provides employment, In summary, tourism is a dominant and highly re- income and foreign exchange. This statement can liable subsystem which significantly contributes be substantiated by the fact that currently large to the long-term economic stability of the overall amounts are invested in tourism projects like the island system. Spatial cross-scale interactions play ‘Baha Mar’ resort at Cable Beach (Fig. 18). an important role in shaping the dynamics of this In terms of risks, tourism almost totally de- subsystem. However, the relevance and exter- pends on external agents and factors. It is very nal control of this sector may weaken the island

17 Social-Ecological Resilience on New Providence (The Bahamas)

Fig. 18: New beach resort (‘Baha Mar’) development at Cable Beach, Nassau (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011) system’s resilience in the future. The confidence Both categories had the same relevance for the in the proven system and the almost exclusive fo- students interviewed. Interestingly, students also cus on external stressors brings the risk of over- had a wide range of ideas of how to respond. looking local problems that could have a negative Some of their ideas can easily be implemented in impact on tourism, such as man-made ecological their daily life, for example re-using plastic items problems (e.g. shipping accidents, oil spills) or the or using public transport services. Some students rising crime rate. also mentioned solutions for higher-level pro- Learning as an adaptability attribute is a ne- blems, e.g. using renewable energy sources or cessary part of a resilient system. Therefore, our building eco-friendly and energy-efficient vehi- research also focused on environmental educa- cles and buildings. At the same time realize that tion in public and private schools of New Provi- they – as children – usually cannot change things dence (Fig. 19). Since today’s pupils are the future such as crime rates even if they wanted to. Conse- of the island’s society, the aim was to determine quently, theoretical knowledge of alternative be- levels of awareness of potential threats or shocks haviour is not implemented by the students. Co- to the social system and responses towards these gnitive experiences seem to be more important threats. Results indicate high awareness of crime for daily life than knowledge of threats and pos- and violence as societal threats and natural ha- sible responses which is e.g. gained at school. By zards, endangered ecosystems, pollution and lit- teaching students how to use information about tering or climate change as environmental threats. particular problems in their everyday life and en-

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Fig. 19: Classroom of St. Andrews Private School (Photo: S. Ehlert 2011) hancing their ability to participate in public deci- vidence society might create a solid foundation sion making – for example by establishing a youth for facing problems now and in future. parliament –, schools can have an important share To conclude, we need to make clear that our in improving the development of society. short-term study could not aim to provide a com- Based on these findings, we conclude that the prehensive examination of the small island of New majority of the students know how to respond to Providence as a complex social-ecological system potential threats (Fig. 20), which might modera- including most kinds of subsystems and inter- tely or even strongly increase their personal resi- actions. Nevertheless, the overview of the case lience and/or the resilience of the population. Our studies presented reveals different modes and analysis shows no correlation between awareness speeds of subsystem dynamics with relevance and responses on the one hand and pupils’ age, for a more resilient system trajectory. At present, gender and school type on the other. All schools various agent interactions contribute to relatively contribute to the build-up of knowledge about stable overall island system development. Panar- potential social-ecological threats and teach chical cross-scale relations, e.g. transnational net- their students how to respond to different pro- works, play a significant role for the entire system blems. Nevertheless, schools are only one part as well as in the subsystems of tourism, supply of the social system, and knowledge learned at systems or disaster management. However, some school needs to be absorbed and implemented at small-scale systems run in phases of reduced re- home. Environmental knowledge needs to spread silience, e.g. coral reefs or road transport. In ad- throughout society and become an important dition, the social system of the island is facing a part of the public debate. All members of socie- range of serious challenges such as crime, unem- ty need to be involved in collecting information ployment, social polarisation, racism and discri- and building up knowledge. Putting this know- mination, drug and alcohol abuse, single-mother ledge into action can be regarded as one of the households and teenage pregnancy or HIV/AIDS – greatest challenges for every society trying to in- to quote the most significant responses from our crease its resilience in the long term. However, by population survey. successfully integrating knowledge on problems Future studies on social-ecological resilience and possible solutions into daily action New Pro- of New Providence are desirable and need to in-

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Fig. 20: Mental maps (from top left to bottom right): fish; waste management; strapped house; waste at the beach; students recycling; crime; tree, car and gun; shark; good and bad things in New Providence (Compilation: S. Ehlert, A.-C. Hake) clude deeper and long-term insights into other Moreover, the mechanisms of the overall econo- subsystems, scales, agents and interactions not my and the relevance of financial capital, human explicitly considered here. Among such fields of capital and social capital should be examined tho- interest are the role of land ownership and conflict roughly. In addition, future studies must put em- in the context of land development, problems of phasis on the resilience of different agent groups, sewerage and dumping or the numerous inland taking into account the social fragmentation and wetlands (cf. Fig. 21), their value and utilisation. diverse vulnerabilities of the island.

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Fig. 21: Lake Killarney (Photo: A. Holdschlag 2011)

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Note: More detailed information on the research results and further references can be obtained from the authors.

Contact: Prof. Dr. Beate M.W. Ratter ([email protected]) Dr. Arnd Holdschlag ([email protected]) Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

Layout: Claus Carstens

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