Studies in Agricultural Economics 119 (2017) 130-138 https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1712
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LQGLYLGXDODQGIDPLO\FKDUDFWHULVWLFVGLVFXVVHGDERYHZHUH N correlation (2-tailed) VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW 7KH 5 RI WKH EHVW ¿WWLQJ PRGHO 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQWWRFRQWLQXH H[SODLQHG ZDV DQG WKH EHVW H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH HGXFDWLRQ ERWKSDUHQWVQR RQH SURYHGWREHWKHSDUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQWWRFRQWLQXHHGXFDWLRQ SDUHQWQRWKHRWKHUXQGHFLGHG RQH 5 IROORZHG E\ DJH 5 WKH QXPEHU RI SDUHQW\HVWKHRWKHUQR RQHSDUHQW \HVWKHRWKHUXQGHFLGHG ERWK VLEOLQJV 5 VFKRRO SHUIRUPDQFH 5 DQG SDUHQWV\HV FRPSXWHUVNLOOV 5 )DWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQ WHUWLDU\ HGXFDWLRQWR XWPRVWORZHUVHFRQGDU\ ,QÀXHQFHRIWKHORFDOLW\DQG HGXFDWLRQ VFKRROFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 1XPEHURIVLEOLQJV 0RWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQ WHUWLDU\ HGXFDWLRQWR ORZHUVHFRQGDU\RUOHVV 2IWKHFRPPXQHVLQWKHVXUYH\ ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQ HGXFDWLRQ DOOWKUHHZDYHV*LOăXLQDQGDQG܉DJDRQO\LQ 6RXUFH RZQFDOFXODWLRQV $OOWKHVHFRPPXQHVDUHFRPSRVHGRIPRUHWKDQRQH 133 .HUHNHV.LQJD+RUD܊LX3LUăX.LV%ULJLWWDÈJRWDDQGÈEUDKiP%HiWD Table 4: 6XPPDU\RIWKHOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOIRUWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH FRQWLQXLQJHGXFDWLRQ KLJKVFKRRORUYRFDWLRQDOVFKRRO Change statistics Model R R2 Adjusted R 2 SE of the estimate R2 change F change df1 df2 Sig. 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FRHI¿FLHQWV FRHI¿FLHQWV t Sig. statistics B SE Beta Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF 1 &RQVWDQW 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQW &RQVWDQW 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQW $JH 3 &RQVWDQW 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQW $JH 1XPEHURIVLEOLQJV &RQVWDQW 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQW $JH 1XPEHURIVLEOLQJV 6FKRROSHUIRUPDQFH &RQVWDQW 3DUHQWV¶DJUHHPHQW $JH 1XPEHURIVLEOLQJV 6FKRROSHUIRUPDQFH &RPSXWHUVNLOOV 6RXUFH RZQFDOFXODWLRQV YLOODJH 3ULPDU\ VFKRROV RSHUDWH LQ PRUH ORFDOLWLHV ZKLOH WKH VFKRRO GURSRXWV 5 QRU ZLWK WKH HGXFDWLRQDO ORZHUVHFRQGDU\VFKRROV ¿IWKWRHLJKWKIRUPV RSHUDWHXVX FKRLFH 5 7KH RQO\ SRSXODWLRQUHODWHG FKDUDFWHU DOO\LQWKHFRPPXQHFHQWUHDQGLQWKHYLOODJHVZLWKDKLJKHU istic which proved to be relevant regarding the educational QXPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ IURP WKH UHVSHFWLYH DJH JURXSV ,Q DOO RXWFRPHVLVWKHVKDUHRI5RPDSRSXODWLRQZLWKLQWKHWRWDO WKUHHZDYHVZHYLVLWHGDOOVFKRROVZKHUHHLJKWKIRUPFKLO SRSXODWLRQRIWKHFRPPXQH7KHUHZDVDQHJDWLYHUHODWLRQ GUHQZHUHVWXG\LQJWKXVWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIYLOODJHVUHDFKHG ZDV LQDQG LQ $VPRVWVWDWLVWLFDO 20 GDWDDUHRQO\DYDLODEOHDWWKHFRPPXQH /$8 OHYHOZH characterise the communes, and not the villages, as localities 16 RIRULJLQ 7KH ¿UVW FRPPXQHVSHFL¿F LQGLFDWRU ZH WHVWHG LV WKH 12 QXPEHU RI LQKDELWDQWV ZKLFK LQ WKH &HQVXV IURP UDQJHGIURP 3DODWFD WR %DFLX 2XUK\SRWK HVLV ZDV WKDW VHWWOHPHQW VL]H ZRXOG KDYH D SRVLWLYH HIIHFW 8 RQFKLOGUHQ¶VGHFLVLRQWRFRQWLQXHHGXFDWLRQEXWDFFRUGLQJ WRRXUGDWD )LJXUH WKHQXPEHURILQKDELWDQWVGRHVQRW School drop-outs (per cent) 4 FRUUHODWH ZLWK WKH VKDUH RI VFKRRO GURSRXWV 5 FDOFXODWHG DV DQ DYHUDJH RI WKH SXSLOV IURP WKH UHVSHFWLYH commune who do not want to continue education, nor with 0 WKHRYHUDOOHGXFDWLRQDOFKRLFH 5ð FDOFXODWHGDVD 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 ZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHRIWKHFKRVHQVFKRROW\SH KLJKVFKRRO Number of inhabitants YRFDWLRQDOVFKRRODQG QRVFKRRO Figure 1: 7KHSHUFHQWDJHRIVFKRROGURSRXWVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWRWDO 7KH YLWDOLW\ LQGH[ RI WKH FRPPXQH FDOFXODWHG DV WKH QXPEHURILQKDELWDQWVLQWKHFRPPXQH UDWLRRIELUWKVWRGHDWKV FRUUHODWHGQHLWKHUZLWKWKHVKDUHRI 'DWDVRXUFHV ,16 DQGRZQUHVHDUFK )DFWRUVLQÀXHQFLQJHGXFDWLRQDOFKRLFHVRI5RPDQLDQUXUDO\RXWK VKLS )LJXUH EHWZHHQWKHVKDUHRI5RPDSRSXODWLRQDQG W\SH$PRQJWKHVHRQO\EHWZHHQWKHGLVWDQFHWRWKHQHDUHVW WKHVKDUHRIJ\PQDVLXP ORZHUVHFRQGDU\VFKRRO JUDGXDWHV KLJKVFKRRODQGWKHLQGLYLGXDOOHYHOHGXFDWLRQDOFKRLFH KLJK DPRQJWKH\HDUVROG 5 6XFFHVVIXOJUDGXD VFKRROYRFDWLRQDOVFKRRODQGQRVFKRRO ZDVDYHU\ZHDN WLRQLVDSUHFRQGLWLRQIRUIXUWKHUVWXG\LQJ QHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQIRXQG 3HDUVRQ&RUUHODWLRQ VWD 7KH VKDUH RI WKH 5RPD SRSXODWLRQ LV VLJQL¿FDQWO\ FRU WLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWDWWKHOHYHO VKRZLQJWKDWWKHORQJ UHODWHG )LJXUH ZLWKWKHVKDUHRIWKRVHZKRSODQWRGURS GLVWDQFHFDQEHDQREVWDFOHIRUFRQWLQXLQJHGXFDWLRQLQDKLJK RXWDIWHUJUDGXDWLQJORZHUVHFRQGDU\VFKRRO 5 DV VFKRRO7KHVDPHFRQFOXVLRQFDQEHGUDZQIURP)LJXUH ZHOODVZLWKWKHHGXFDWLRQDOFKRLFH KLJKVFKRROYRFDWLRQDO ZKLFK VKRZV WKH VKDUH RI FKLOGUHQ ZKR FRQWLQXH WR VWXG\ VFKRRORUQRVFKRRO 5 FDOFXODWHGDWFRPPXQHOHYHO DFFRUGLQJWRWKHGLVWDQFHWR Other indicators tested were intended to measure the WKHQHDUHVWKLJKVFKRROZKHUHWKHQHJDWLYHLQÀXHQFHFDQEH JHRJUDSKLFDO UHPRWHQHVV RI WKH FRPPXQHV WKH GLVWDQFH REVHUYHGHVSHFLDOO\IRUORQJHUGLVWDQFHV RYHUNP WRWKHFRXQW\FDSLWDOFLW\&OXM1DSRFDWKHGLVWDQFHWRWKH 7KH VKDUH RI ZRRGODQG LQ WRWDO ODQG FRYHU FRUUHODWHV QHDUHVWKLJKVFKRRODQGWKHVKDUHRIZRRGODQGLQWRWDOODQG )LJXUH ZLWK WKH FRPPXQHOHYHO HGXFDWLRQDO FKRLFH FRYHU DV D SUR[\ IRU PRXQWDLQ DUHDV &RUUHODWLRQ FRHI 5 $VWKHKLJKVKDUHRIZRRGODQGLVFKDUDFWHULVWLF ¿FLHQWV DPRQJ WKH GLVWDQFH WR WKH QHDUHVW KLJK VFKRRO DQG RIPRXQWDLQDUHDVZHDUULYHWRWKHVRPHKRZFRQWUDLQWXLWLYH WKH GLVWDQFH WR &OXM1DSRFD ZHUH FDOFXODWHG ERWK ZLWK WKH UHVXOW WKDW \RXQJ SHRSOH IURP PRXQWDLQ DUHDV SUHIHU KLJK LQGLYLGXDODQVZHUVDQGZLWKWKHFRPPXQHOHYHODJJUHJDWHG VFKRROVPRUHWKDQWKHDYHUDJH values related to continuing education and the chosen school 2QH IXUWKHU FRPPXQHOHYHO FKDUDFWHULVWLF ZKLFK ZDV VWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWLVUHODWHGWRWKHORFDOVFKRROV\VWHP 2.7 R2 linear = 0.268 Sancraiu 7KHVKDUHRIJ\PQDVLXPJUDGXDWHVDPRQJ\HDUVROGLV 2.2 GHFUHDVLQJDVWKHQXPEHURIFKLOGUHQSHUJ\PQDVLXPWHDFKHU Maguri Taga Suatu 1.7 105 1.2 Caianu 100 Savadisla Manast. 0.7 Gilau Margau Iclod 95 0.2 Geaca Jucu Catina Palatca Moldov. -0.3 M. Viteazu 90 Mociu Cojocna -0.8 Camarasu 85 Share of gymnasium graduates Sacuieu -1.3 among 10-14 years old (2012-2014) Baciu 80 -1.8 The share of those children who continuewho to study (95% CI) 75 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 Zscore: share of Roma population < 9.9 km 10-16.9 km 17-20.9 km 21-24.9 km 25 km in total population (2011) and over Distance to the nearest high-school, grouped Figure 2: 7KHVKDUHRIJ\PQDVLXPJUDGXDWHVDPRQJ\HDUV ROGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVKDUHRIWKH5RPDSRSXODWLRQLQWKHFRPPXQH Figure 4: 7KHSHUFHQWDJHRISXSLOVFRQWLQXLQJHGXFDWLRQDFFRUGLQJ 'DWDVRXUFH ,16 WRWKHGLVWDQFHIURPKRPHWRWKHQHDUHVWKLJKVFKRRO(UURUEDUV LQGLFDWH SHUFHQWFRQ¿GHQFHLQGH[ 17.5 R2 linear = 0.178 'DWDVRXUFHV ,16 DQGRZQUHVHDUFK Cojocna 15.0 2.0 12.5 Suatu 1.8 10.0 Maguri Catina Sacuieu 7.5 Mociu M. Viteazu Manast. Baciu 1.6 5.0 Share of school drop-outs Jucu Savadisla Geaca 2.5 Caianu Camarasu 1.4 Margau Moldov. Iclod Palatca 0.0 of education (commune level) Type Sancraiu Taga Gilau R2 linear = 0.138 1.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 Share of Roma population 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 in total population (2011) Woodland in total land cover (per cent) Figure 3: 7KH SHUFHQWDJH RI VFKRRO GURSRXWV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH Figure 5: (GXFDWLRQDOFKRLFHVRISXSLOVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVKDUHRI VKDUHRIWKH5RPDSRSXODWLRQLQWKHFRPPXQH ZRRGODQGLQWKHFRPPXQHE\ODQGFRYHU 'DWDVRXUFHV ,16 DQGRZQUHVHDUFK 'DWDVRXUFHV ,16 DQGRZQUHVHDUFK .HUHNHV.LQJD+RUD܊LX3LUăX.LV%ULJLWWDÈJRWDDQGÈEUDKiP%HiWD 25.0 R2 linear = 0.258 LQFUHDVHV 5 VKRZLQJWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWHDFKHUV¶ Sancraiu DWWHQWLRQIRUWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHSXSLOV )LJXUH $KLJK 22.5 Maguri QXPEHURIFKLOGUHQSHUWHDFKHUFDQDOVRVLJQDOWKDWVRPHRI Suatu Taga WKHWHDFKHUVKDYHWKHLUPDLQMRELQDVFKRROORFDWHGLQDGLI 20.0 Caianu IHUHQWFRPPXQHZKLFKDOVRPHDQVDORZHUOHYHORIWHDFKHUV¶ Savadisla 17.5 Gilau LQYROYHPHQW Manast. Margau 15.0 Iclod Geaca Jucu Palatca Moldov. Catina 12.5 M. Viteazu Mociu 'LVFXVVLRQDQGFRQFOXVLRQV Cojocna 10.0 Camarasu Sacuieu 7KH ORZ OHYHO RI HGXFDWLRQ RI WKH UXUDO SRSXODWLRQ LQ Share of gymnasium graduates 7.5 among 10-14 years old (2012-2014) 5RPDQLDDQGWKHDODUPLQJO\KLJKUDWHRIHDUO\VFKRROOHDY Baciu HUVDPRQJWKRVHDJHGLQWKHUXUDODUHDUHTXLUHVERWK 5.0 UHVHDUFKHUVDQGSROLF\PDNHUVWRWU\WRXQGHUVWDQGWKHFDXVHV EHKLQGWKHVHXQZDQWHGSKHQRPHQD2XUSDSHURIIHUVVRPH 5.1 7.7 10.2 12.8 15.3 17.9 20.4 hints, based on empirical research carried out in three waves Number of 10-14 years old children per gymnasium teachers (2014) RYHUDSHULRGRIHLJKW\HDUVUHDFKLQJ\RXQJSHRSOHLQ FRPPXQHVRI&OXMFRXQW\ Figure 6: 7KHVKDUHRIJ\PQDVLXPJUDGXDWHVDPRQJ\HDUV 2XU¿UVWUHVXOWLVWKDWTXLWHDVXEVWDQWLDOVKDUH SHU ROG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH QXPEHU RI \HDUV ROG FKLOGUHQ SHU FHQWRIWKHSXSLOVLQDQGSHUFHQWLQDQG J\PQDVLXPWHDFKHU GRQRWZDQWWRFRQWLQXHWKHLUHGXFDWLRQDIWHUFRPSOHWLQJWKH 'DWDVRXUFH ,16 HLJKWKIRUP ORZHUVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQ ZKLFKPHDQVWKDW WKH\ZLOOKDYHQRSURIHVVLRQDOTXDOL¿FDWLRQDQGWKHLUFKDQFHV FAMILY factors LOCALITY factors RIJDLQLQJHPSOR\PHQWRXWVLGHDJULFXOWXUHDUHYHU\ORZ • parents’ education • population (size, age 7KHHGXFDWLRQDOFKRLFHVRIUXUDO\RXWKIURP&OXMFRXQW\ • parents’ attitude and ethnic structure ) toward continuing • remoteness (distance KDYH FKDQJHG GXULQJ WKH SHULRG 7KH VKDUH education to the city, mountain RI WKRVH ZKR GHFODUHG WKH\ ZDQW WR FRQWLQXH HGXFDWLRQ • number of siblings area ) LQFUHDVHG E\ VL[ SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV IURP ZKHQ WKH 5RPDQLDQ HFRQRP\ ZDV JURZLQJ WR MXVW DIWHU WKH INDIVIDUAL factors SCHOOL factors JOREDOHFRQRPLFFULVLV ZKLFKVXSSRUWVWKHYLHZWKDWLQDQ • gender • teachers ( number , HFRQRPLFVORZGRZQ\RXQJSHRSOHDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRVWD\LQ • age qualification and 2 HGXFDWLRQWKDQORRNIRUZRUN 2(&' ,QWKHSHULRG • school performance R = 0.201 turnover) • computer skill • distance to the FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ HFRQRPLF UHFRYHU\ WKH VKDUH • values nearest high school RISODQQHGVFKRROGURSRXWVVWDELOLVHGDWDURXQGSHUFHQW 7KRVHZKRGRQRWZDQWWRFRQWLQXHHGXFDWLRQH[SODLQHGWKHLU R2 = 0.039 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