Measuring the Effiecieny of Ncaa Football Coaches
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GETTING DRAFTED INTO THE NFL: MEASURING THE EFFIECIENY OF NCAA FOOTBALL COACHES A THESIS Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Economics and Business The Colorado College In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Bachelor of Arts By Eamonn McDermott May 2014 GETTING DRAFTED INTO THE NFL: MEASURING THE EFFIECIENY OF NCAA FOOTBALL COACHES Eamonn McDermott May 2014 Economics Abstract NCAA football currently serves as a minor league feeder system for the NFL. College football coaches are some of the highest, if not the highest paid officials, at their respective schools. With salaries in the millions, coaches are expected to be able to execute numerous responsibilities for their universities and players. One of the reasons why student-athletes pick certain universities is because of the coaching and development they will receive. But do coaches have any impact on getting their players drafted into the NFL? By looking at data from 2003-2013 almost 30,000 student-athletes were measured by 232 coaches. The results of this study show that coaches do in fact have positive, negative and no effect on getting their student-athletes drafted into the NFL. KEYWORDS: (College Football, NFL Draft, Coaches) Dedication I would like to dedicate this paper to my parents Kevin McDermott and Marybeth Laskey without their guidance and love throughout out my life I would not be in the position I am today. ON MY HONOR, I HAVE NEITHER GIVEN NOR RECEIVED UNAUTHORIZED AID ON THIS THESIS Signature TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT DEDICATION/ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 Motivation…………………………………………………… 2 2 LITERATURE REVIEW....……………………………………… 6 3 SUMMARY STATISTICS……………………………………..... 13 4 RESULTS.………………………………………………………… 24 5 CONCLUSIUON………………………………………………… 34 APPENDIX 35 References 37 LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Top 10 School Profits for Football in 2011-2012…………………… 3 1.2 Top 20 Highest Paid NCAA Coaches in 2013……………………... 4 3.1 Breakdown of Rivals 3,4, and 5-Star Recruits by Position ………… 14 3.2 Breakdown of Rival 5-Star Recruits by Conference………………... 15 3.3 Breakdown of Rival 5-Star Recruits by Position and Conference…. 17 3.4 Coaches with more then 10 5-Star Recruits ………………………... 18 3.5 Coaches with more then 100 4-Star Recruits……………………….. 19 3.6 Coaches with more then 20 Players Drafted into the NFL…………. 21-22 3.7 Coaches with 10-20 Players Drafted into the NFL ………………… 23 4.1 Fixed Effects Table of Coaches Significant at 85% Level…………. 26-27 4.2 Fixed Effects Table of Miscellaneous Variables at 85% Level… 30 LIST OF APPENDICIES 1 Names of all 232 Coaches Measured 35-36 Acknowledgment I would first like to start off by thanking my family for always being there for me in all circumstances of my life. I would not be the student or person I am without them. I would next like to thank all of the Professors I have had the privilege of learning under at Colorado College. I also would like to thank Kevin Rask for giving me the opportunity to work with and learn from. I would like to next thank Dean Edmonds for the relationship we have built over the last four years at Colorado College. I would lastly like to thank all of my teammates, coaches, friends, and Emma Volk for helping me along the way at Colorado College. Chapter 1 Introduction The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) was established in 1906, urged by former President of the United States Theodore Roosevelt. The purpose of the NCAA was to safeguard young adults from unsafe and oppressive behavior in that time period. In 1906, there were only 62 members in the intercollegiate athletic association of the United States (original name of NCAA). Today, there are over 1,096 schools and universities competing in the NCAA and over 450,000 athletes (NCAA, 2014). While almost all of these student-athletes will be going pro in something other than sports, a select few will have the opportunity to play professional sports for a living. But what gives these select few the opportunity to play sports for a living? Some people argue that they have superior ability and are destined from the beginning to play professional sports. Others argue that it is the result of the environment in which they were raised and were taught the skills and qualities necessary to become professional athletes. Finally, some argue that it is the university or school that the athlete attends that makes him a professional athlete because of the experience and coaching that they receive. While considering the latter, most universities and schools make their men’s football coaches their highest paid officials. What is the actual value of these coaches in developing their players into professional athletes? 1 Most successful businesses have one thing in common: a strong person or chief executive at the top. According to Maxcy (2013) “the structure of college football much resembles the hierarchical organizational chart of the midsize corporation” (p.370). Whether you like it or not, the NCAA is one of the biggest businesses in the world with TV contracts in the billions. According to Henry Mintzberg, the world-renowned business and strategy guru, successful chief executives have three things in common. The first is the different roles that executives or coaches must take on. In coaching this could be considered assembling a staff, recruiting, setting lineups and ultimately coaching. The second role is interpreting and analyzing information. A coach analyzes information when he looks at video of the opponent and his own team, statistics, or new potential recruits. The last role or duty that an executive or coach fulfills is the interpretation of data in order to make the business or team run more efficiently (Kahn, 2000). A coach undertakes this responsibility by taking in all the data and making decisions that puts his team in the best opportunity to succeed. Ultimately, executives and coaches are responsible for molding and motivating individual people to embrace being part of a team in which they can accomplish far more then they could have individually. Motivation As previously stated, the money that is being poured into division one athletics is astounding. One of the reasons why these universities and colleges are investing so much into football is because they are the beneficiaries of these exuberant revenues. In the 2012-2013 year, the NCAA generated 11 billion 2 dollars worth of revenue across all of the sports (Berkowitz & Peter, 2014). The top ten football universities in 2011-2012 alone produced almost 500 million dollars amongst themselves (Dosh, 2012) (See Table 1.1). Most of these universities and colleges are investing seven figure contracts not only to their head football coach but also to the whole staff (Berkowtiz, Dougherty, Schnaars & Upton, 2013) (See Table 1.2). But what is the actual value of these coaches to their universities? And how is the best way to measure this value? Table 1.1 Top 10 School Profits for Football in 2011-2012 (Value in Millions) School Revenue Expenditure Profit Texas $103.80 $25.90 $77.90 Michigan $85.20 $23.60 $61.60 Georgia $75.00 $22.70 $52.30 Florida $74.10 $23.10 $51.10 Alabama $82.00 $36.90 $45.10 LSU $68.80 $24.10 $44.80 Auburn $77.20 $33.30 $43.80 Notre Dame $69.00 $25.80 $43.20 Arkansas $64.20 $24.30 $39.90 Nebraska $55.10 $18.70 $36.40 Source: Dosh, K (2011-2012) ESPN.go.com 3 Table 1.2 Top 20 Highest Paid Coaches in NCAA going into the 2013 Season RK School Conf Coach School Pay Other Max Staff Pay Pay Bonus Total 1 AL SEC Saban 5,395,852 150,000 700,000 4,462,700 2 TX Big 12 Brown 5,392,500 61,250 850,000 4,111,000 3 AR SEC Bielema 5,158,863 - 700,000 3,233,000 4 TN SEC Jones 4,860,000 0 1,000,000 3,170,000 5 OK Big 12 Stoops 4,741,667 31,500 819,500 3,436,000 6 OH State Big 10 Meyer 4,608,000 0 550,000 3,474,504 7 LSU SEC Miles 4,300,000 159,363 700,000 4,565,803 8 MI Big 10 Hoke 4,154,000 0 550,000 3,072,000 9 IA Big 10 Ferentz 3,985,000 0 1,750,000 2,367,500 10 L’Ville AAC Strong 3,700,000 38,500 808,333 2,703,900 11 OSU Big 12 Gundy 3,450,000 - 550,000 2,884,000 12 SC SEC Spurrier 3,300,000 22,500 1,550,000 2,744,600 13 GA SEC Richt 3,200,000 114,000 1,000,000 3,294,000 14 PA Big 10 O'Brien 3,282,779 - 200,000 - 15 UC AAC Tuberville 3,143,000 0 465,000 1,920,000 16 TCU Big 12 Patterson 3,120,760 - - - 17 TX A&M SEC Sumlin 3,100,000 300 750,000 3,392,250 18 NE Big 10 Pelini 2,975,000 - 1,000,000 2,648,500 19 KS State Big 12 Snyder 2,800,000 3,000 580,000 2,594,750 20 MO SEC Pinkel 2,800,000 200 850,000 2,642,500 Source: Berkowitz, S., Dougherty, S., Schnaars, C., & Upton, J (2013) USAToday.com Most would argue that it is all about winning and keeping your program relevant in the national spotlight. But for most student-athletes, “just winning” is not enough. These student-athletes also find that the free education they receive in return is not sufficient either.