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Appendix F: Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study

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Appendix F: Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study Draft Environmental Impact Statement / Overseas Environmental Impact Statement GUAM AND CNMI MILITARY RELOCATION Relocating Marines from Okinawa, Visiting Aircraft Carrier Berthing, and Army Air and Missile Defense Task Force Volume 9: Appendices November 2009 Comments may be submitted to: Joint Guam Program Office c/o Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Pacific Attn: Guam Program Management Office 258 Makalapa Drive, Suite 100 Pearl Harbor, HI 96860 This Page Intentionally Left Blank. Guam and CNMI Military Relocation Draft EIS/OEIS (November 2009) Guam and CNMI Military Relocation EIS/OEIS Volume 9: Appendices Table of Contents PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT MATERIALS ........................................................................ APPENDIX A COOPERATING AGENCIES ............................................................................................ APPENDIX B AGENCY CORRESPONDENCE ....................................................................................... APPENDIX C PROJECT DESCRIPTION TECHNICAL APPENDIX .................................................. APPENDIX D HABITAT EQUIVALENCY ANALYSIS (HEA) ............................................................. APPENDIX E SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY ................................................. APPENDIX F EIS/OEIS RESOURCE TECHNICAL APPENDIX......................................................... APPENDIX G Recreational Resources Terrestrial Biological Resources Marine Biological Resources Cultural Resources Hazardous Materials and Waste References COASTAL CONSISTENCY DETERMINATION (CCD) .............................................. APPENDIX H AIR QUALITY IMPACT ANALYSIS DATA .................................................................. APPENDIX I AECOM Technical Services, Inc. Parsons Transportation Group/Parsons Brinckerhoff Team SUPPLEMENTAL AIRCRAFT CARRIER MARINE SURVEYS .................................. APPENDIX J ADDITIONAL REPORTS .................................................................................................. APPENDIX K VOLUME 5: WEAPONS EMPLACEMENTS SITES ANALYSIS ................................ APPENDIX L VOLUME 9: APPENDICES i Appendix F Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study DRAFT Environmental Impact Statement / Overseas Environmental Impact Statement GUAM AND CNMI MILITARY RELOCATION Relocating Marines from Okinawa, Visiting Aircraft Carrier Berthing, and Army Air and Missile Defense Task Force Draft Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study November 2009 This Page Intentionally Left Blank. Guam and CNMI Military Relocation SIAS Draft (November 2009) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION This Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study (SIAS) was prepared as a stand-alone study to the Environmental Impact Statement/Overseas Environmental Impact Statement (EIS/OEIS) for the proposed military relocation to Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI). The purpose of the study is to provide reliable estimates of the proposed relocation’s potential impact on the social and economic conditions on Guam and within the CNMI. The analysis in this SIAS addresses the following components of the proposed military relocation action: Marine Corps relocation from Okinawa to Guam Construction of facilities for training and operations on Tinian in the CNMI Aircraft Carrier Berthing at Guam Army Air and Missile Defense Task Force facility development Various “connected actions” (i.e., utilities and roadways) This SIAS does not address alternative geographical configurations for any of the action components, cumulative or other impacts unrelated to the proposed action, the significance of impacts, and potential mitigations. Such issues are addressed in the appropriate volumes and sections of the EIS/OEIS. This SIAS was prepared using the most current and best available data available for relevant issues such as construction conditions, military personnel numbers, and project implementation schedules. However, ongoing planning, scheduling, and federal legislative activities could result in changes to various input assumptions and therefore to the impact conclusions as well. In response to public concerns voiced during public scoping meetings for the EIS/OEIS, as well as Federal Regional Council (FRC) consultation, the impact analyses conducted for this SIAS were focused on socioeconomic issues in the following four categories: Population Change Economic Activity Public Services Sociocultural Issues Particular attention is given to the years: 2014, the peak year of net direct, indirect, and induced population increase from off-island (as influenced by a cumulative peak in project-related construction activity and military personnel relocation); and 2020, when peak population effects have subsided to a steady-state population increase attributable to the post-construction, operational phase of the proposed military relocation. The SIAS analyzes the following two scenarios, reflecting different assumptions about potential constraints on the local economy’s response to the economic stimulus effects of the proposed action. The Unconstrained Scenario is a maximum-impact approach. This scenario assumes no constraints in the Guam and CNMI economies that might lessen the indirect economic growth potential resulting from the proposed action. The Unconstrained Scenario represents the maximum growth likely to occur. Compared to the Constrained Scenario, this scenario assumes that currently unemployed Guam residents will take Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study i Executive Summary Guam and CNMI Military Relocation SIAS Draft (November 2009) fewer jobs, more in-migrants would be needed, and that each worker would have more non-working dependents. The Constrained Scenario is a minimum-impact approach. This scenario assumes there would be aspects in Guam’s economy that would block the full realization of potential beneficial indirect growth. This scenario does not explicitly identify all these blockages, but assumes some mix of limitations. It also assumes absorption of currently non-working Guam residents by the job market, less in-migrants, and fewer non-working dependents per in-migrant. POPULATION CHANGE Table ES-1 presents the estimated annual population increase from off-island that would result from the proposed action (unconstrained scenario). Project-related construction work is expected to begin in 2010 and reach its peak in 2014. It is also assumed in this analysis that most of the Marines and their families would arrive on Guam in 2014. Since the peak in construction activities and expenditures would coincide with the arrival of Marines and their families, 2014 represents the peak year for population increase. At this peak, the total increase in Guam residents from off-island would be an estimated 79,178 people. After the 2014 peak, project-related construction expenditures and the associated influx of construction workers would decline rapidly because 2014 is the last year that any new construction begins. By the time construction is completed and military operational spending reaches a steady state, the off-island population increase attributable to the proposed military relocation is projected to level off to an estimated 33,608 persons, approximately 58% below the peak level. In comparison the constrained scenario, presented below in Table ES-2, indicates a 2014 peak-year total impact of 53,786 additional individuals, falling to 30,209 after construction ends. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study ii Executive Summary Guam and CNMI Military Relocation SIAS Draft (November 2009) Table ES-1. Estimated Total Population Increase on Guam from Off-Island (Unconstrained) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Direct DoD Population1 Active Duty Marine Corps 510 1,570 1,570 1,570 10,552 10,552 10,552 10,552 10,552 10,552 10,552 Marine Corps Dependents 537 1,231 1,231 1,231 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 Active Duty Navy2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Navy Dependents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Active Duty Army 0 50 50 50 50 630 630 630 630 630 630 Army Dependents 0 0 0 0 0 950 950 950 950 950 950 Civilian Military Workers 102 244 244 244 1,720 1,836 1,836 1,836 1,836 1,836 1,836 Civilian Military Worker 97 232 232 232 1,634 1,745 1,745 1,745 1,745 1,745 1,745 Dependents Off-Island Construction Workers 3,238 8,202 14,217 17,834 18,374 12,140 3,785 0 0 0 0 (DoD Projects)3 Dependents of Off-Island 1,162 2,583 3,800 3,964 4,721 2,832 1,047 0 0 0 0 Construction Workers (DoD Projects) Direct DoD Subtotal 5,646 14,112 21,344 25,125 46,052 39,685 29,545 24,713 24,713 24,713 24,713 Indirect and Induced Population Off-Island Workers for 2,766 7,038 11,773 14,077 16,988 12,940 6,346 4,346 4,346 4,482 4,482 Indirect/Induced Jobs3 2,627 6,685 11,184 13,373 16,138 12,293 6,028 4,372 4,372 4,413 4,413 Dependents of Off-Island Workers for Indirect/Induced Jobs Indirect/Induced Subtotal 5,393 13,723 22,957 27,450 33,126 25,233 12,374 8,718 8,718 8,895 8,895 Total Population 11,038 27,835 44,301 52,575 79,178 64,918 41,919 33,431 33,431 33,608 33,608 Notes: 1DoD population includes military personnel, DoD civilian workers and dependents from off-island. 2The Navy rows do not include increases from the transient presence of aircraft carrier crew with its carrier strike group (CSG). 3 Population figures do not include Guam residents who obtain employment as a result of the proposed action. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment Study iii Executive Summary Guam and CNMI Military Relocation SIAS Draft (November 2009) Table
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