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Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: an Analysis of Partisan and Floating Voters in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

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Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: an Analysis of Partisan and Floating Voters in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA By HASSAN SHAH DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR SESSION: 2014 – 2015 VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA Thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Award of the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE JANUARY 2019 ABSTRACT This academic work is focused on the dynamics of voting behaviour with a particular focus on partisan and floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The voting behaviour of the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is constantly changing in each and every election. Questions arise that, why voting behaviour and preferences are frequently changing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? What are the main determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? There is a considerable ratio of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that change their loyalties in each election. The scarce literature on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa did not explain the frequent changes in voting behaviour in general and partisan and floating voters in particular. This study explores the concept of floating voter in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and operationalized it on the basis of previous research work. A scientific method was used to compare the results of three general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in the selected constituencies for identification of partisans and floating voters. Party identification theory was operationalized for the partisan voters which justified the argument that party identification is one of the main determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study also figures out other determinants of voting behaviour in the 2013 such as the influence of the candidate personality, local and national issues, religion and social networks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The „Issue Ownership Theory‟ and „Riding the Wave Theory‟ were operationalized to find out the issue voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The socio-political and economic circumstances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa encouraged the influence of personalities in the electoral politics. While this research work recognizes personality vote hypothesis and tested it through Five-Factor model (FFM) of personality, the role of religion in making the political behaviour of the voters was also much visible. The study identified that religion-based voting is an important determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The strong social structure in the i Pakhtun society and social networks like family, relatives and friends have significant influence on the political affiliation and vote choices of the individuals. The scope of this research work is limited only to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which was divided into Northern, Central and Southern geographical regions or zones. From each zone two national assembly constituencies were randomly selected and data was collected through a close ended questionnaire on the basis of probability sample. The study is primarily quantitative. For analysis inferential statistical tests that include Chi-Square test, Paired T-test and cross tabulation were used to check the relationship between two variables and test deviation of differences. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS S.No. Topic Page No. Abstract I List of Acronyms vi Acknowledgements ix Chapter – 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose of Inquiry 1 1.2 Rationale for Selecting 2013 General Elections 3 1.3 Literature Review 4 1.4 Statement of the Problem 7 1.5 Aims and Objectives of the Study 7 1.6 Significance of the Study 8 1.7 Methodology 9 1.8 Data Collection 11 1.9 Impact and contribution of the study 13 1.10 Chapters structure 14 Chapter – 2 ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (1932- 2013) 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Pre-Independence Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (former 17 NWFP) 2.3 Post-independence Elections Era (1947-1970) 27 2.4 Third Phase of the Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1970-2013) 30 Chapter – 3 COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THREE GENERAL 56 ELECTIONS (2002, 2008, 2013) 3.1 Introduction 56 3.2 Southern Geographical Zone 58 3.3 Central Geographical Zone 65 3.4 Northern Geographical Zone 72 3.5 Fluctuations in Turnout 78 3.6 Vote Bank of Political Parties 79 iii Chapter – 4 IDENTIFICATION OF FLOATING VOTERS IN ELECTIONS 2013 85 4.1 Introduction 85 4.2 Political Parties Support in General Elections 90 4.3 Characteristics of Floating Voters 92 Chapter – 5 PARTISANSHIP MODEL IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 118 5.1 Introduction 118 5.2 Political Parties Membership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 120 5.3 Respondents Perception about Party Affiliation/Attachment 125 5.4 Party Leader versus Political Party 130 5.5 Respondents‟ Political Parties Affiliation 135 5.6 Switching new Political Party according to the Circumstances (Political 142 and Social) 5.7 Respondents Prediction about the Political Party Candidate in 2018 147 Elections Chapter – 6 ROLE OF PERSONALITY OF CANDIDATE IN GENERAL 156 ELECTIONS 2013 6.1 Introduction 156 6.2 Influence of Candidate Personality on Voter 157 6.3 Economic and Political Status of the Candidate 166 6.4 Candidate Participation in the Social Activities 172 6.5 Party Candidate versus Independent Candidate 178 6.6 The impact of Transport on Voters 184 Chapter – 7 ISSUE VOTING MODEL 191 7.1 Introduction 191 7.2 Issue and Vote Choice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 194 7.3 Respondents and Issues Identification 195 7.4 Voting on the Basis of Local (Constituency) Issues 201 7.5 Issue Ownership and Political Parties 207 iv Chapter – 8 RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR 216 8.1 Introduction 216 8.2 Respondents Perception about Religious Political Parties 227 8.3 Respondents Perceptions to Vote for Religious Political Parties 234 8.4 The Relationship of Religion and Voting Behaviour 239 Chapter – 9 ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN SHAPING VOTING 242 BEHAVIOUR 9.1 Introduction 242 9.2 Influence of Mashar (Elder) of the Family on Vote Choice 250 9.3 Influence of Social Networks on Vote Choice 257 9.4 Rationale of Candidate Support in General Elections 2013 264 Conclusion 271 Bibliography 276 Appendix 294 v LIST OF ACRONYMS AICC All India Congress Committee AIML All India Muslim League AL Awami League ANP Awami National Party ARD Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy CJP Chief Justice of Pakistan CM Chief Minister COAS Chief of Army Staff COP Combined Opposition parties ECP Election Commission of Pakistan F.R Frontier Region FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FPCC Frontier Province Congress Committee IJI Islami Jamhoori Ittehad IJM Islami Jamhoori Mahaz IJM Islami Jamhori Mohaz INC Indian National Congress ISI Inter Service Intelligence Agency JI Jmaat-i-Islami JMP Jamiat Mashaikh Pakistan JUH Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind JUI Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam JUI (F) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman Group) JUP Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan vi JUP (Hazarvi) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan (Hazarvi Group) KK Khudai Khidmatgar KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KT Khaksar Tehrik LFO Legal Framework order LHC Lahore High Court MDM Mutehda Deeni Mahaz MKP Mazdoor Kissan Party MMA Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal MNA Member of National Assembly MPA Member of Provincial Assembly MQM Muttahida Qawmi Movement NA National Alliance NAP National Awami Party NWFP North West Frontier Province PAI Pakistan Awami Ittehad PATA Provincial Administered Tribal Area PDA Pakistan Democratic Alliance PDA Peoples Democratic Alliance PDP Pakistan Democratic Party PHC Peshawar High Court PIF Pakistan Islamic Front PILDAT Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development &Transparency PKMAP Pushtunkhwa Milli Awami Party PKQP Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party PM Prime Minister vii PMKP Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Convention) PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Council) PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML(J) Pakistan Muslim League (Junejo faction) PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam) PPP Pakistan People Party PPPP Pakistan People Party Parliamentarian PPP-S Pakistan People Party Sherpao Group PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf QWP Qaumi Watan Party SC Supreme Court of Pakistan SSP Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan TI Tehriq Istiqlal TNFJ Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqa Jafiriah TNSM Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am very thankful to Almighty Allah to give me courage and potential to complete this dissertation. This study would not have been possible without the help and encouragement of several people and institutions. First and foremost, the gratitude goes to those institutions that substantially contributed to this study. Primarily, credit goes to Higher Education Commission Pakistan (HEC) to reimburse my tuition fee under the Prime Minister Fee Reimbursement Program. I also worked as a research assistant in NRPU project that fulfilled my other financial expenses. I am fortunate to avail the HEC International Research Support Initiative Program (IRSIP) scholarship and spent six months at George August University, Goettingn, Germany. I am also thankful to the IRSIP team in Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad. I would like to express heartiest gratitude to my supervisor and mentor Dr. Abdul Rauf, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, who very kindly guided me throughout the conduction of this research. I benefited enormously from his experience and priceless thoughts. He remained more than a supervisor for me during the entire period and left no stone unturned in providing me necessary materials (academic and financial) for this purpose. I am also obliged to Dr. Shahida Aman, my co-supervisor. She always guided me during this whole process and encouraged me to move forward. She is a kind and soft hearted teacher. I am grateful to my host supervisor Dr. John Peter Hartung, who remained a source of guidance for me during my stay in Gottingen. His intellectual insights and critical approach strengthened my theoretical base. Dr. John Peter Hartung not only guided me academically but treated me like a friend throughout my stay.
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