Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: an Analysis of Partisan and Floating Voters in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

HASSAN SHAH

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR SESSION: 2014 – 2015 VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Award of the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE

JANUARY 2019

ABSTRACT

This academic work is focused on the dynamics of voting behaviour with a particular focus on partisan and floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The voting behaviour of the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is constantly changing in each and every election. Questions arise that, why voting behaviour and preferences are frequently changing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? What are the main determinants of voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? There is a considerable ratio of floating voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa that change their loyalties in each election. The scarce literature on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa did not explain the frequent changes in voting behaviour in general and partisan and floating voters in particular. This study explores the concept of floating voter in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and operationalized it on the basis of previous research work. A scientific method was used to compare the results of three general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in the selected constituencies for identification of partisans and floating voters. Party identification theory was operationalized for the partisan voters which justified the argument that party identification is one of the main determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study also figures out other determinants of voting behaviour in the 2013 such as the influence of the candidate personality, local and national issues, religion and social networks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The „Issue Ownership

Theory‟ and „Riding the Wave Theory‟ were operationalized to find out the issue voters in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The socio-political and economic circumstances in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa encouraged the influence of personalities in the electoral politics. While this research work recognizes personality vote hypothesis and tested it through Five-Factor model (FFM) of personality, the role of religion in making the political behaviour of the voters was also much visible. The study identified that religion-based voting is an important determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The strong social structure in the

Pakhtun society and social networks like family, relatives and friends have significant influence on the political affiliation and vote choices of the individuals.

The scope of this research work is limited only to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which was divided into Northern, Central and Southern geographical regions or zones. From each zone two national assembly constituencies were randomly selected and data was collected through a close ended questionnaire on the basis of probability sample. The study is primarily quantitative. For analysis inferential statistical tests that include Chi-Square test,

Paired T-test and cross tabulation were used to check the relationship between two variables and test deviation of differences.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

S.No. Topic Page No. Abstract I List of Acronyms vi Acknowledgements ix Chapter – 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose of Inquiry 1 1.2 Rationale for Selecting 2013 General Elections 3 1.3 Literature Review 4 1.4 Statement of the Problem 7 1.5 Aims and Objectives of the Study 7 1.6 Significance of the Study 8 1.7 Methodology 9 1.8 Data Collection 11 1.9 Impact and contribution of the study 13 1.10 Chapters structure 14 Chapter – 2 ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (1932- 2013) 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Pre-Independence Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (former 17 NWFP) 2.3 Post-independence Elections Era (1947-1970) 27 2.4 Third Phase of the Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1970-2013) 30 Chapter – 3 COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THREE GENERAL 56 ELECTIONS (2002, 2008, 2013) 3.1 Introduction 56 3.2 Southern Geographical Zone 58 3.3 Central Geographical Zone 65 3.4 Northern Geographical Zone 72 3.5 Fluctuations in Turnout 78 3.6 Vote Bank of Political Parties 79 iii

Chapter – 4 IDENTIFICATION OF FLOATING VOTERS IN ELECTIONS 2013 85 4.1 Introduction 85 4.2 Political Parties Support in General Elections 90 4.3 Characteristics of Floating Voters 92 Chapter – 5 PARTISANSHIP MODEL IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 118 5.1 Introduction 118 5.2 Political Parties Membership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 120 5.3 Respondents Perception about Party Affiliation/Attachment 125 5.4 Party Leader versus Political Party 130 5.5 Respondents‟ Political Parties Affiliation 135 5.6 Switching new Political Party according to the Circumstances (Political 142 and Social) 5.7 Respondents Prediction about the Political Party Candidate in 2018 147 Elections Chapter – 6 ROLE OF PERSONALITY OF CANDIDATE IN GENERAL 156 ELECTIONS 2013 6.1 Introduction 156 6.2 Influence of Candidate Personality on Voter 157 6.3 Economic and Political Status of the Candidate 166 6.4 Candidate Participation in the Social Activities 172 6.5 Party Candidate versus Independent Candidate 178 6.6 The impact of Transport on Voters 184 Chapter – 7 ISSUE VOTING MODEL 191 7.1 Introduction 191 7.2 Issue and Vote Choice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 194 7.3 Respondents and Issues Identification 195 7.4 Voting on the Basis of Local (Constituency) Issues 201 7.5 Issue Ownership and Political Parties 207

Chapter – 8

RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR 216

8.1 Introduction 216

8.2 Respondents Perception about Religious Political Parties 227

8.3 Respondents Perceptions to Vote for Religious Political Parties 234

8.4 The Relationship of Religion and Voting Behaviour 239

Chapter – 9

ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN SHAPING VOTING 242 BEHAVIOUR

9.1 Introduction 242

9.2 Influence of Mashar (Elder) of the Family on Vote Choice 250

9.3 Influence of Social Networks on Vote Choice 257

9.4 Rationale of Candidate Support in General Elections 2013 264

Conclusion 271

Bibliography 276

Appendix 294

LIST OF ACRONYMS

AICC All India Congress Committee

AIML All India Muslim League

AL Awami League

ANP Awami National Party

ARD Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy

CJP Chief Justice of Pakistan

CM Chief Minister

COAS Chief of Army Staff

COP Combined Opposition parties

ECP Election Commission of Pakistan

F.R Frontier Region

FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network

FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

FPCC Frontier Province Congress Committee

IJI Islami Jamhoori Ittehad

IJM Islami Jamhoori Mahaz

IJM Islami Jamhori Mohaz

INC Indian National Congress

ISI Inter Service Intelligence Agency

JI Jmaat-i-Islami

JMP Jamiat Mashaikh Pakistan

JUH Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind

JUI Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam

JUI (F) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman Group)

JUP Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan vi

JUP (Hazarvi) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan (Hazarvi Group)

KK Khudai Khidmatgar

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

KT Khaksar Tehrik

LFO Legal Framework order

LHC Lahore High Court

MDM Mutehda Deeni Mahaz

MKP Mazdoor Kissan Party

MMA Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal

MNA Member of National Assembly

MPA Member of Provincial Assembly

MQM Muttahida Qawmi Movement

NA National Alliance

NAP National Awami Party

NWFP North West Frontier Province

PAI Pakistan Awami Ittehad

PATA Provincial Administered Tribal Area

PDA Pakistan Democratic Alliance

PDA Peoples Democratic Alliance

PDP Pakistan Democratic Party

PHC Peshawar High Court

PIF Pakistan Islamic Front

PILDAT Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development &Transparency

PKMAP Pushtunkhwa Milli Awami Party

PKQP Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party

PM Prime Minister

vii

PMKP Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party

PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Convention)

PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Council)

PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

PML(J) Pakistan Muslim League (Junejo faction)

PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam)

PPP Pakistan People Party

PPPP Pakistan People Party Parliamentarian

PPP-S Pakistan People Party Sherpao Group

PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

QWP Qaumi Watan Party

SC Supreme Court of Pakistan

SSP Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan

TI Tehriq Istiqlal

TNFJ Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqa Jafiriah

TNSM Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi

viii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am very thankful to Almighty Allah to give me courage and potential to complete this dissertation. This study would not have been possible without the help and encouragement of several people and institutions. First and foremost, the gratitude goes to those institutions that substantially contributed to this study. Primarily, credit goes to Higher Education

Commission Pakistan (HEC) to reimburse my tuition fee under the Prime Minister Fee

Reimbursement Program. I also worked as a research assistant in NRPU project that fulfilled my other financial expenses. I am fortunate to avail the HEC International

Research Support Initiative Program (IRSIP) scholarship and spent six months at George

August University, Goettingn, Germany. I am also thankful to the IRSIP team in Higher

Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad.

I would like to express heartiest gratitude to my supervisor and mentor Dr. Abdul

Rauf, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, who very kindly guided me throughout the conduction of this research. I benefited enormously from his experience and priceless thoughts. He remained more than a supervisor for me during the entire period and left no stone unturned in providing me necessary materials (academic and financial) for this purpose. I am also obliged to Dr. Shahida Aman, my co-supervisor. She always guided me during this whole process and encouraged me to move forward. She is a kind and soft hearted teacher.

I am grateful to my host supervisor Dr. John Peter Hartung, who remained a source of guidance for me during my stay in Gottingen. His intellectual insights and critical approach strengthened my theoretical base. Dr. John Peter Hartung not only guided me academically but treated me like a friend throughout my stay. I am also thankful to Ms.

Christine Seack and the team of the international office in George August University,

Gottingen who guided me about the admission formalities of the university. I am also

grateful to the cooperation and assistance of teaching and non-teaching staff of the Institute of Social Anthropology.

I am thankful to, acting Chairman and Dean of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Johar Ali,

Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, for his cooperation and encouragement and Prof. Dr. Taj Muharram Khan, former Chairman of the department. It would be injustice if I did not acknowledge Prof. Dr. A. Z. Hilali, Prof. Dr. Zahid Anwar,

Dr. Muhammad Ayub Jan, Dr. Sami Raza (Fulbright fellow), Dr. Noreen Naseer, Dr.

Muhammad Zubair and Dr. Aamer Raza (Fulbright fellow) of the Department of Political

Science, for their due intellectual and moral support. My gratitude also goes to Dr. Andrea

Fleshinberg (DAAD long term guest professor at QAU Islamabad), Dr. Sanaa Alimia and

Dr. James Caron (SOAS London). I am particularly obliged to clerical staff Murad Khan

(MAMA), Saeedullah (Charsadda), Shamsul Amin, Atif Matlob and Shazada Gulfam,

Librarian of the Seminar Library for the wholehearted support that I always received from them. I also acknowledge my gratitude and indebtedness to my family members who encouraged me to fulfill this task. I am indebted to my parents Mr. Nadir Khan and Mrs.

Nadir Khan whose love and patience highly encouraged me in this whole process. My sincere thanks and gratitude to my friends especially Dr. Wajid Mehmood Khatak (Karak),

Dr. Sajjad Husain (Bajaur), Dr. Syed Wasif Azeem (Charsadda), Wali Ullah (Lakki

Marwat), Muhammad Rehman (Lakki Marwat), Arif Khan (Mardan), Muhammad Farooq

(M.Phil Statistics), Sajjad Ali (Charsadda), Abdul Wakeel and Irfanullah (Police

Department). The appreciation and encouragement of all these people pushed me to complete this research study.

I am also thankful to Prof. Dr. Syed Muhammad Asim, Chairman Department of

Statistics, University of Peshawar, who gave his valuable time and helped me in data analysis. I always remember his insight in quantitative methods and its use in social sciences. I would like to acknowledge the advice and encouragement received from Mr.

Usman Ali Shah M.A. (English) Federal Directorate of Education Islamabad, Mr.

Muhammad Zahir Shah (PhD Scholar in China), Dr. Muhammad Ashgar Khan, Department of Regional Studies, Dr. Muhammad Tariq Azad (PhD Scholar), Mr. Jamshid Iqbal (PhD

Scholar), Mr. M. Bilal Lecturer Sociology (AWKUM) and Sikandar Hayat Khan (PhD

Scholar). My University colleagues Dr. Ashfaq Ahmad, Dr. Asif Salim, Shah Nawaz, Faraz

Ali Khan, Saeedullah Din Muhammad (George-August-University), Taswar Husain Zaidi

(George-August-University), Dr. Tahir Mehmood (George-August-University) and many more were very much instrumental in different stages of the study.

Field work and data collection was the toughest task of this research project. My sincere thanks and gratitude goes to Mr. Faizul Ibrar Khatak (Karak), Hidayat Khan Marwat

(Lakki Marwat), Haseen Ullah (Lakki Marwat), Muhammad Iqbal (Mardan), Gohar Zaman

(Gandera), Adnan Shah (Tahkt-i-Bahi), Akhtar Wahid (Mandani), Alhaj Muhammad Khan

(Chitral), Junaid Shah, Hifsa Gul, Shaheen Begum and Bushra Gul. All these people helped me in data collection in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I am also very thankful to the staff of Election Commission of Pakistan, Peshawar and people of different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who extended their help and cooperation in the conduction of survey in the areas of their dwelling.

Hassan Shah

CHAPTER – 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE OF INQUIRY

This study is an academic attempt to analyze the voting behavior of the people in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa with a particular focus on partisan and floating voters. Voting behaviour has always been remained very fluid due to the unique political landscape of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, different political parties came into power with majority votes in the last three (2002, 2008, 2013) general elections. In general elections 2002, Muttahida

Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) came into power with (42%) majority votes. In general elections

2008, MMA was voted out and two other (secular) political parties Pakistan People‟s Party

(PPP) 17% votes and Awami National Party (ANP) 16% votes respectively secured majority vote (Khan, 2009:490). In the general elections 2013, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

(PTI) (a centralist party) with (27%) votes sweep the provincial and national assembly constituencies, secured the majority seats and washed out the previous ruling political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Besides political parties, independent candidates also secured a good number of votes in these general elections. Independent candidates secured

17% votes in general elections 2002, 24% votes in 2008 and 13% in the general elections

2013. Results of the elections show that unlike the other provinces of Pakistan, in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa three different political parties with majority voters‟ support came into power in these elections. Historically, it is the first time that two consecutive elected governments completed their tenure in Pakistan. In general elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa unlike traditional political parties i.e., ANP, PPP, PML-N, JUI and JI a new political party Pakistan

Tehreek-e-Insaf won with majority votes.

Table No. 1 Political Parties Position in three general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Political Parties % of Votes General % of Votes % of Votes Elections 2002 General Elections General 2008 Elections 2013 MMA/JI &JUI 42% 12% 23% ANP 8% 16% 7% PTI 0.5 00 27% PPP 9% 17% 7% PML-N 12% 12% 15% PML-Q 12.76% 14% 0.18 Independent 17% 24% 13% Source: Election Commission of Pakistan

Table-1 shows a detail sketch of the percentage votes of different political parties and independent candidates in the last three general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It shows an unpredictable approach of the electorate in the province. Hence may generally classified into two categories; partisan and floating voters.1 The partisan are those who hold affiliation with a political party and accept its ideological frame (Campbell et al., 1960;

Converse, 1969; Drummond, 2006; Lipset and Rokkan, 1967; Rose and Urwin, 1970).

Campbell et al. (1960) argued that a voter who consecutively votes two times a party is called partisan voter. On the other hand, floating voters are changing their political loyalties in each election. However, floating voters have great impact on elections results. Therefore, a question of importance in the context of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is; under what circumstances do these floating voters decide their vote choice in elections?

How party, social networks, national and international issues, personality of a candidate, religion or some other phenomena determine their voting behaviour?

Political parties are indispensable element of democratic system. In fact in developing countries, such as Pakistan, the democratic process has often been disrupted by military dictatorial regimes or their indirect interference in the political processes.

Therefore, the democratization process is failed to strengthen in Pakistan. The political system of Pakistan is based on multi-party system, which can be categorized into religious,

1 Floating voters are those voters who are frequently changing their political loyalties in each election. They are opposite to the partisan voters. 2

Ethno-Nationalist (secular) and Rightists political parties. The religious political parties consist of Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman), Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (Sami ul

Haq), Pakistan Awami Tehreek, Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, Jamiat Ulama-i-Pakistan and other religio-political parties etc. On the other hand, ethno-nationalist and left-wing political parties‟ include Pakistan People‟s Party, Awami National Party, Muttahida Qaumi

Movement, Qaumi Watan Party, Balochistan National Party, National Awami Party and

Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. The rightist group of parties includes Pakistan Muslim

League (all factions) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf etc. These political parties have developed a support base in the voters. During elections, voters who have an affiliation with a party preferably poll their votes in favour of their respective political party only.

1.2 RATIONALE FOR SELECTING 2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS AND

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

The 2002 elections were held in a time when a system of „controlled‟ democracy was in practice in Pakistan. An Army serving General was the head of the state and government, and the elections were conducted in a deteriorated situation in the wake of US attack on

Afghanistan. Political activities were limited after the coup d'état in 1999. Conducting research on an election in such a situation could not possibly give the appropriate results.

Moreover, as this study primarily takes into account the partisan and floating voters, therefore, it would not have been possible to carry out research on a single election. 2008 elections were again held under Musharraf regime. Some of the political parties (JI, PTI, and PMAP) boycotted the elections fearing of military interference and rigging. Being a prominent part of MMA, JI severely affected the election results for the religious parties‟ alliance in 2008 elections. Studying such an election with the voter preferences and choices could affect the objectives and ultimately the findings of the research. On the other hand, the 2013 elections were held under a democratic regime and none of the prominent political parties boycotted the elections, therefore, providing us a best possible opportunity (election) 3

to focus our research on. Furthermore, a democratic government has completed its five years tenure for the first time, which could possibly have impacts on the voting preferences and choices of the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Also that based on the working definition of partisan voter, “a voter who supports a political party in two consecutive elections” we had to compare the three elections, as any two of the three could not serve our purpose of the study.

1.3 LITERATURE REVIEW

Goldman (1966) argued that the way a voter have tendency to vote for a particular candidate or political party on the polling day is called voting behaviour. The academic study of voting behaviour has a long and vibrant history. Ricci (1984) illustrated that voting behaviour has been important area of research in Political Science since 1940‟s. In fact, the decision to vote a candidate is generally influenced by the education, economic status, class, gender, age, profession, religion, personality, issues, and social networks. The proponents of

Colombian School2 link voting behaviour to socio-economic and other social factors, while the Michigan School3 mostly concentrates on the psychological and political factors

(Anderson and Stepenson, 2010; Berelson et al., 1954; Campbell et al., 1960; Blais et al.,

2001).

However, issue voting,4 clientelism, election campaigns and popularity of party leaders, personality of candidate and performance also affect the electoral choices and voting preferences of the people. Kwon (2008) argued that an individual attitude towards

2 Colombian School is also known as sociological model of voting behaviour. The proponents of the Colombian School of thought believed that voter‟s decision is influenced by social factors like social status, friends, relatives and family. See for detail (Berelson, B., Lazarsfeld, P. F. and McPhee, W. N., (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press). 3 Michigan School or psychological model based on party identification theory. Michigan School also argued that voting behaviour is influenced by psychological factors rather than sociological factors. For detail see 1). Campbell, A. C., E. Philip, Miller, E. Warren and Stokes, E. Donald (1960). The American Voter. New York: Wiley. 2). Campbell, Angus, Converse, E. Phillip, Miller, E. Warren and Stokes, E.Donald (1966). Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley. 4 Issue voting means voters casting their votes in elections on the basis of socio-political and economic considerations. During elections, the contesting candidates highlight the local and national issues. Those candidates also presented the solution of all those issues. Voters evaluate the candidates‟ approach towards those issues and chose the best option. 4

voting come out of the assessment of the personality of a candidate, evaluation of incumbent government performance and ideological leaning towards a political party. In a democratic system, political parties provide a platform to participate in state affairs. As a matter of fact, a political party imparts training to those individuals who play their part in state business. Political parties, therefore, are playing a significant role in shaping the voting behaviour. Occasionally, candidate‟s personality traits and his reputation as a public-spirited figure also influence vote choice. Various studies reveal the voters‟ prefer economically strong and stable candidates (Khan, 1986). On the other hand, vote choice of an individual is also subjected to his personal preferences over issues such as contesting candidate‟s assistance in court-related matters, construction of schools, streets and roads, highlighting and solving the issues of load-shedding, unemployment, terrorism and poverty etc. Many researchers argue that in developing societies, political patronages are being used as a tool to get the support of common people in elections (Conover et al., 1985: Hasnain, 2008:

Budge and Farlie, 1983). Aziz Khan (1970) also illustrates the importance of patron-client relationship in developing societies such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Likewise, Saghir Ahmad (1977) work identified the role of class structure and traditional kinship in shaping voting behaviour in Punjab. Anwar (2016) and Rais (1985) studies reveal the importance of Biradari5 (Brotherhood) and tribalism in determining voting behaviour in Punjab. Wilder (1999) and Syed (1991) also highlighted the influence of Biradari (Brotherhood) on the vote choice of the voters in Punjab. Ishtiaq Ahmad et al.

(2017) shed light on the election campaign strategies of Pakistan Muslim League-N in general elections 2013 in Punjab. Umbreen Javaid and Urwa Elahi (2014) argued that in

5 The Biradari system is a social structure that is classified into three quoms in Punjab. The Zamindar quom who are land owing class have economically and socially strong status in society. This class is further categorized into two groups i.e. landowners and tenant cultivators. The second element of Biradari is kammi quom which performs non-agricultural duties. The third element of Biradari is Muslim Sheikh or landless workers. Sheikhs are the poorest class of Biradaris in Punjab. All these three groups are working together and interdependent on each other. The most famous biradaris in Punjab are Jatt, Gujjar, Kokars and Syeds. For detail see Muhammad Faiz Anwar. (2016). Role of Biraderi in Politics: A Case Study of Voting Behaviour in Jhok Bodo Village, District Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, .XXXVII (2).19-36. 5

rural areas of Punjab, personality of candidate and Biradarism (Brotherhood) influence the voter‟s decision, while in urban areas the citizens tend to vote on the basis of performance.

However, election campaign is also performing a vital role to convince voters (Usman et al.,

2013).

Likewise, other provinces of Pakistan, economic, political, psychological and social determinants are shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Various studies have figured out these different determinants of voting behaviour in the province. Bashir (1973) for example argued that in 1970 general elections, economic and social factors determined the voting behaviour of the electorates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Conversely, Muhammad

Rizwan (2014) argued that in 1970 elections, tribalism and ethnic loyalties manipulate the disposition of vote in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Shakeel Ahmad‟s (2010) study emphasized on the role of political determinants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa‟s urban communities and patron- client patterns in the rural areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He also asserted that voting behaviour changes with the passage of time due to industrialization, social cleavages and current national and international issues (Ahmad, 2010). However, Farmanullah, in his work, identified the role of clientelism in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

(Farmanullah, 2014). Farmanullah and Islam (2014) argue that party identification do not constitute a determinant of voting behaviour in general elections 2008 in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

Though these studies and some other give a detail account of voting behaviour, its dynamics and the role of issue voting, religion, personality, party and social networks in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, yet, a detailed and systematic research work on floating voters is still lacking. This study is an attempt to introduce this new aspect of voting behaviour and election studies in the available literature in the field.

1.4 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can be classified into two broad categories; partisan or party affiliated voters and floating voters. In the first case, a voter is loyal to his/her respective political party and vote for that on polling day. Apparently, partisans are committed to vote for the nominated party candidates irrespective of their personal qualities or eligibility standards. On the other hand, floating voters do not stick to a single party or candidate.

They can change their mind when come across certain situations during the election campaign (Sianpar et al., 2012). They thus have a significant and determining role in the victory of a candidate in elections. Political parties try to take full advantage of the situation and attract as many floating voters as possible during their election campaign. They use different techniques and tactics to attract floating voters such as corner meetings with family elders (Masharan), social media campaigns (Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp), public rallies and wall chalking and in some cases even the use of money.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, voters are persuaded by the personality and personal influence of candidate, issues, religiosity and social networks. The elections results show that different political parties‟ candidates were elected in the three general elections (2002,

2008 and 2013). These included candidates belonging to Muttahida-Majlis-e-Amal (MMA),

Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), Qawmi Watan Party (QWP),

Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan (JIP), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Pakistan People's Party

(PPP), Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam). An analysis of the voters‟ behaviour and their voting preferences with reference to the general elections 2013 need to be brought to the surface which is somehow a new aspect of electoral behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

1.5 RESEARCH QUESTION

Q1. Why the dynamics of voting behaviour frequently change in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

Sub-Questions

1. What influences floating voters to vote in elections?

2. What is the role of political parties in shaping voting behavior in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

3. In what manner a candidate‟s personality influences voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa?

4. What is the role of social networks (kinship or clan politics) in affecting voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

5. What role religion and issues play in influencing voters‟ preferences in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa?

1.6 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

 To analyze the role of political parties in shaping voting behavior of the people

 To examine the role of personality of candidate in influencing voters preferences in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

 To evaluate the role of social networks in influencing voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

 To explore the role of religion in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

 To know about the role of issues in determining voters preferences in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The study of various elections and their results in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reveals that voters‟ preferences are continuously changing unlike other parts of Pakistan in terms of their

support in favour of or against mainstream political parties. This has affected the outcome of elections results, bringing political parties and alliances of different shades to power in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Such an unpredictable voting behaviour necessitates the matter to be investigated scientifically. It further makes the electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa different from other provinces of Pakistan. It is believed that a good percentage of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which, along with the personality of politicians, issues, religiosity, kinship and tribe or clan (Qaum or Khel) influence voting behaviour of the people.

1.7 METHODOLOGY

In 1940s Paul Lazarsfeld (Sociologist) introduced survey research method (quantitative) to examine people (political) behaviour, preferences and opinions. Quantitative research methods are useful when a research problem is concerned with a wider society. It implies that the bigger the sample size, the more accurate are the findings. Taking into consideration the measurement of voting behavior associated with a wider society of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, quantitative research method of data collection, analysis and interpretation, was thus adopted for this study. The overview of the previous studies on voting behaviour also shows that quantitative methodology is suitable for this study. Data was collected through a survey, comprising multi-stage random and systematic sampling from National

Assembly (NA) constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Questionnaire has long been a primary means of gathering data on political beliefs, attitudes, and behaviour (Leighley,

2010). A close ended questionnaire was used for the data collection because it is easy for respondents to answer and less time consuming. Closed-ended questionnaires are also less expensive survey method and the response ratio of close-ended questionnaires in a survey is higher than open-ended questionnaires survey (Dawson, 2002:16; Marsh, 1982). For secondary data, help was taken from books, research articles published in journals

newspapers and online internet sources (government and non-government organizations websites etc.).

1.7.1 Sample Size

The population of the study is total voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. To get a representative sample size, the respondents were selected with a margin of 3% error and 95% confidence level on the basis of the multi-stage sampling technique. A statistical formula was used to determine the sample size. In terms of the numbers, the sample size n and margin of error E are given below:

c 2 x = Z( /100) r(100-r) N x 2 n = /((N-1)E + x) (N - n)x E = Sqrt[ /n(N-1)]

Where N is the population size, r is the fraction of responses and Z(c/100) is the

Critical Value for the confidence level c. After the calculation, the sample size of 1200 respondents was determined. The Data was collected through the multi-stage sampling technique as per details given below:

Stage 1: Twenty-five districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were divided into three clusters on their geographical location. These geographical regions include Northern, Central and

Southern districts of the province.

Stage 2: Two constituencies were selected from each cluster through the random sampling method. The total number of the selected constituencies was six.

1. In the Southern Zone District Karak and District Lakki Marwat (NA-15 and NA-27)

were selected.

2. In the Central Zone District Charsadda and District Mardan (NA-8, NA-9), while

3. In the Northern Zone District Chitral and District Lower Dir (NA-32, NA-34) were

selected.

Stage 3: Out of the six selected constituencies of National assembly, two union councils were selected from each constituency through random sampling which thus become twelve union councils. The list of union councils is given below:

1. NA-32 Union Councils Chiral-1 and Charun, NA-34 Union councils Haya Sarai and

Tazagram.

2. NA-8 union councils Hisara Nehri and Gandera, NA-9 union councils Mangah and

Saro Shah.

3. NA-27 union councils Tajori and Suleman Kheel, NA-15 union councils Jandari and

Mitha Khel.6

Stage 4: Hundred respondents were systematically selected from each union council on equal basis (50 male and 50 female). All three geographical zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have political and social heterogeneity. Therefore, the equal number of respondents (200 male and 200 female) is selected from each geographical zone. The second rationale for the selection of the equal number of respondents is to provide equal representation to the people of each zone.

1.8 DATA COLLECTION

Before starting data collection a comprehensive questionnaire was designed. The structuring of questionnaire took almost three months. Before starting data collection, a pilot survey in

Allama Iqbal Hostel 9, of the University of Peshawar was conducted to test the validity of the questionnaire7. Thirty questionnaires were distributed randomly in different rooms of the hostel. The respondents were also requested to give their feedback on the questionnaire.

Some very valuable feedback was received from the respondents. Some of the respondents

6 For 2018 general elections these constituencies were shuffled and relocated. For example NA-32 Lower Dir is renamed as Lower Dir-1 NA-6, NA-34 Chitral is now NA-1 Chitral, NA-8 Charsadda-1 is NA-23 Charsadda-1, NA-9 Mardan is NA-20 Mardan-1, NA-15 Karak is NA-34 Karak and NA-27 Lakki Marwat is NA-36 Lakki Marwat. 7 Why the pilot survey is conducted in Allama Iqbal Hostel 9? This hostel is reserved for MPhil and Ph.D. students of the University of Peshawar. Therefore scholar decided to conduct a pilot survey in the said Hostel to get feedback. After collecting questionnaires different scholars write their feedback which was incorporated. 11

could not understand the terminologies and concepts used in the questionnaire. Some of them suggested making the questionnaire short and precise. As a result of the pilot survey, structure of different questions was changed, and most of the questions were replaced by statements and indirect questions. To make it more easy and understandable the questionnaire was translated into Urdu. The reliability of the questionnaire was also tested through SPSS. The result of the Alpha reliability test value was above 0.7 which proved that questionnaire was reliable and needed no further changes.

Data collection was started on 15th January 2017 from Jandari Union Council of district Karak. This was a household survey, which was started from village Tarkha Koi of

Union Council Jandari. In the first step, questionnaires were distributed in the selected houses and noted the names of those persons who received the questionnaires. In the rest of the villages, questionnaires were equally distributed in male and female respondents. Those respondents who were illiterate, the researcher himself or other data enumerator helped them in understanding the questionnaire. The same procedure was adopted in Mitha Khel

Union Council of district Karak. In a similar and systematic way, data was collected in the

Central districts; Charsadda and Mardan. In district Charsadda and Mardan, help of two female data enumerators was taken for data collection. In district Mardan Union Council

Kodinaka was selected in the first phase. However, majority of the people were not willing to participate in the survey. It was therefore replaced with Union Council Mangah through random sampling. In the Northern region data was collected from four union councils of district Dir Lower. On the other side of Lowari Top, snowfall in Chitral disturbed the scheduled plan for data collection. As a result, it took more than a month to collect data from the two Union Councils (Charun, Chitral-1) of the district.

In the third stage the collected data from six districts was entered in SPSS-17 software and was analyzed through different statistical tools included t-test and Chi-Square test8 and paired t-test9.

1.9 IMPACT AND CONTRIBUTION OF THE STUDY

Elections play a very important role in the strengthening of democratic institutions. This research is concentrated on the voting behaviour of the electorate. It is the electorate whose decision in elections chose the elected members, who then form the government to rule the country for a specific period. Stability in political institutions is a pre-requisite for the successful functioning of any government.

The sound and logical choice of the electorate puts into power a party, which pursues stable and consistent socio-economic policies for the benefit of the people at large.

Political stability on the other hand also strengthens confidence of the individual and groups and energizes them for maximum investment in the country‟s economic and social future.

Unfortunately, Pakistan does not possess a good tradition of transfer of power from one government to another. Elections results are usually contested. In the present study, the scholar is trying to identify the changing behaviour of the voters. Outcome of the research will be helpful for the policy makers while formulating policy matters related to Election

Commission of Pakistan on one hand and political parties on the other in formulating their election manifestoes and campaign strategy to convince the voters on election day. The study will be helpful in understanding the political behaviour of partisan voters which can be incorporated in the political science courses offered at different levels.

8 2 2 Chi-Square Test is equal to Χc = ∑ (Observed −Expected) /Expected). Chi-Square test is commonly used for the association of two variables. Chi-Square test is only used for that data which randomly collected (probability sample). The Chi-square test determines if there is dependence (association) between the two classification variables. Hence, many surveys are analyzed with Chi-square tests. 9 Paired t-test is a parametric approach (or large sample size approach) used to compare means of two paired groups (Dependent groups or matched groups). 13

1.10 CHAPTERS STRUCTURE

This dissertation is consists of nine chapters and a conclusion. Chapter first is the introductory part which includes introduction to the topic, statement of the problem, research objectives, literature review and methodology.

Chapter Two (Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1932-2013) is composed of a detailed electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter starts with a short history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the elections from pre-independence to the general elections 2013. It also described in detail the position of different political parties in

National and Provincial Assemblies seats in each election.

The Third Chapter (Comparison of the Results of Three General Elections (2002,

2008, 2013) comparatively analyses the three previous elections in the selected constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It provides a comparison of votes secured by different political parties in general elections 2002, 2008 and 2013. The comparison of votes secured by victorious candidates hence provides a clue of floating and party voters in the selected constituencies.

Chapter Four (Identification of Floating Voters in Elections 2013) illustrates the identification of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the introductory part of the chapter, the available literature about floating voters is discussed in detail and a scale based on different variables was developed and adopted for this study. These variables were correlated with the other independent variables and Chi-square test was applied. On the basis of those variables, floating voters among the respondents were identified.

Chapter Five (Partisanship Model in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) discuss the partisan voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the first part of chapter different theories of party identification are discussed. The party identification theory was operationalized and different variables were correlated with other independent variables. After the analysis of data, the partisan voters were identified in among the respondents.

In Sixth Chapter (Role of Personality of Candidate in General Elections 2013) describes personality vote which is another important determinant of voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter consists of two parts. In the first part different theories regarding charisma and other features of personality are discussed. The second part of the chapter is consists of the field data. Different variables regarding personality votes were correlated with the independent variables.

Chapter Seven (Issue Voting Model) explains the issue voting in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. A theoretical framework on the basis of available literature was formulated.

The field data was analyzed by engaging those theories. The variables regarding the issue voting were correlated with other independent variables. The results of the data identified issue voters in different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Chapter Eight (Role of Religion in Shaping Voting Behaviour) illustrates the impact of religion on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It argues that, like other social and political factors religion is also playing a key role in the electoral politics and voters preferences of the province. The field data figures out that religion is still an important factor in voters‟ choice and preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In Chapter Nine (Role of Social Networks in Shaping Voting Behaviour) the role of social networks in shaping voting behaviour is discussed. Social networks like family, tribe, friends and relatives influence the voting behaviour of an individual. The introductory part of the chapter shed light on some previous research studies within Pakistan and other countries of the globe. On the basis of the available literature, a scale was developed which illustrates that which of the voter is influenced by social networks in the selected constituencies.

The Last part provides a conclusion of the study and its main findings. It concludes with the discussion on key findings of the study and identifies research gaps for further studies in electoral politics and voting behaviour.

CHAPTER – 2

ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (1932-2013)

2.1 INTRODUCTION

Regular elections contribute positively in the political development and democratization process of developing societies. This is sorrowful that in Pakistan, elections are not conducted regularly unlike some other developing countries. The electoral history of

Pakistan witnessed disruption in electoral processes since the early 1950s. After the independence, Pakistan, witnessed four dictatorial regimes that derailed the democratization process. This chapter focuses on the electoral history of Pakistan in general and Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa in particular. The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa commenced from

1932. The first phase of the study consists of the pre-independence era that is started from

1932 till 1947, the second phase is the post-independence era which started from 1947 to

1970, and the last phase consists on ten (10) general elections from 1970 till 2013.

In most developing societies the political parties are personality oriented organizations (Hayes, 1997). Pakistan is not an exception in this regard as dynastic politics is common and majority of political parties are dominated by a single family or individuals, for example Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Awami National Party (ANP), Muttahida Qawmi

Movement (MQM), Qaumi Watan Party (QWP), Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam-F (JUI-F) etc. This section of the study aims at highlighting the history of election campaign and the political scenario during elections. It also explores the history of different national assembly and provincial assembly elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A detail description is given on the role of political parties in different elections, their vote bank and seats secured in provincial assembly and national assembly in different elections in the province.

2.2 PRE-INDEPENDENCE ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER

PAKHTUNKHWA (FORMER NWFP)

The first election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was held in 1932. Sir Ralph Griffith became the

governor of North West Frontier Province on April 18, 1932 (Shah, 2017). The British for

the first time came into direct contact with the North West Frontier region in 1808 because

of the fear of the possible French army attack on Afghanistan and Persia. For this purpose

they sent a mission to Afghanistan and offered their help and cooperation in such a critical

situation.

Before that the British signed treaties with the Sikh in 1806 and 1809 for limiting

their rule and establishing peace in the frontier region. However, the Sikh continued their

expeditions in the Frontier region. In 1818 Sikhs started invasions in Frontier region and

occupied Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, Nowshera and Peshawar. Till 1849 the region was in

direct control of the Sikh. They were defeated by the British in the 2nd Anglo-Sikh war on

29th March 1849. The frontier region came under the rule of British East India Company

and was annexed in the Punjab province (Islam, 2014:2). After the 1857 „War of

Independence‟ Britishers started rule in sub-continent.

On November 9th, 1901, Viceroy Lord Curzon, separated the Frontier region from

Punjab province on administrative grounds and formed North West Frontier Province

(Ahmad, 2011). North West Frontier Province (NWFP) was composed of Peshawar,

Hazara, Bannu Kohat, and Dera Ismail Khan Districts along with the political agencies of

Khyber, Kuram, Malakand, North Waziristan and South Waziristan.10 The frontier province

was administered and controlled by Chief Commissioner, an Agent of the Viceroy of British

India (Shah, 2017:12).

After the establishment of NWFP for the next three decades British government

could not introduce constitutional and electoral reforms in this province. The main reasons

10 In 1973, Orakzai Agency and Bajaur was declared Agencies. 17

were strategic location and internal security of the province. British government invited prominent Pakhtun notables to join Governor‟s Council.

There was restricted franchise for local government institutions in India since 1884

(Bose and Jalal, 1988). In 1892, members of the local bodies‟ had the right to elect provincial assemblies members, who in turn had to elect a particular number of Central

Legislative councilors. The 1909 and 1919 constitutional reforms extended franchise and number of elected members in different legislative councils (Ahmad, 2011). As a result of civil disobedience activities of the Khudai Khidmatgar11, British government declared frontier regions to be a Governor‟s province in 1932 (Shah, 2007:32).

The Khudai Khidmatgars (KK) politico-social influence in NWFP was upheld due to their struggle for political and constitutional reforms. All India Muslim League also supported constitutional reforms in NWFP. Under the new political and administrative setup, Chief Commissioner of NWFP, position changed into the Governor on April 18th,

1932. On the same day, Lord Willington inaugurated the Legislative Council in NWFP

(Shah, 2007). The Legislative Council was consisted of forty (40) elected and nominated members. Out of forty members, twenty-eight (28) were elected and twelve (12) nominated members. Moreover, among the Legislative Council members, one Sikh, five Hindus and twenty-two were to be Muslims. Five Europeans, one Sikh and Muslim official each, four non-official Muslims and one Sikh non-official seat reserved for nominated members of the

Legislative Council. In NWFP Khan Bahadur Ghafoor Khan of Zaida was chosen the first president and member of Legislative Council and another prominent political figure Sir

Sahibzada Abdul Qayyum was nominated the Minister of transferred department. Another prominent figure Sheikh Abdul Hamid was appointed as Secretary of the Legislative

Council. However, minsters and Legislative Council had no authority to intervene in tribal

11 Khudai Khidmatgar is a Pashto term which means Servants of God. Khudai Khidmatgar movement was a non-violent movement against Britishers. Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan started Khudai Khidmatgar movement in 1929. Later on this movement became more political against colonial empire. (for detail see the work Syed Waqar Ali Shah, The Abdul Ghaffar Khan, the Khudai Khidmagars, Congress and the Partition of India, Pakistan Vision, 8 (2). 18

areas affairs. Tribal policy remained under the direct control of governor. After the implementation of constitutional reforms in 1932, electoral politics started in (NWFP)

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The four earlier historical developments that were, Khilafat

Movement, British system of indirect rule, constitutional reforms and civil disobedience against the British provided a ground to the electoral politics in frontier province (Ahmad,

2011).

In NWFP electoral politics was a tool of the British interests. The British government wanted reforms in bureaucracy based on positive support of the community which is only possible through the engagement of local influential elements in lawmaking process (Ahmad, 2011). Notables, Khans and tribal chiefs were nominated as members of the Legislative Council, who were not elected members. British Raj continued the rule and patronage of leading Khans in revenue collections and peace building in NWFP.

Khilafat Movement in the early 1920s also had a deep impact on the political scene of NWFP. The Indian National Congress (INC) supported Khilafat Movement that created a scenario of cooperation. This movement provided an opportunity for the Muslims political leaders of NWFP to participate in active politics. The most prominent among those were the two brothers from Charsadda Dr. Khan Sahib and Bacha Khan (Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan).

Abdul Rauf (2006) argued that, “the relationship between Khudai Khidmatgar Movement and Khilafat Movement was sustained through Anjuman-i-Islah-ul Afaghina (Society for the

Reform of the Afghans) which was formed in the wake of the collapse of the Hijrat

Movement”. On the other hand, the demand for constitutional developments strengthened

Khudai Khidmatgar stance against British Raj (Rauf, 2006).

2.2.1 The 1932 Legislative Council Elections in (NWFP) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The political and constitutional developments in the Frontier province provided a background for the Legislative Council elections that was held in April 1932. The turnout ratio in NWFP was significantly higher than other parts of British India (Ahmad, 2006). 19

Restrictive franchise system of voting limited the electorate to four per cent (4%) of the total population. The qualification for a voter was property therefore legislature was dominated by wealthy and feudal class. In Peshawar, the minority candidate and the leader of Hindu Saba Rai Sahib Mahr Chan Khanna received a three to one majority over C.C.

Gosh. He was a banker and urban landlord, who wanted the protection of Hindus interests.

On the other hand Gosh contest election as a Congress representative. Similarly, Rai Sahib

Rochi Ram, President of the DIKhan Hindu Saba, secured majority votes and defeated

Bhanju Ram Gandhi, another former Congressman, in Dera Ismail Khan (Ahmad, 2011).

Muhammad Shakeel Ahmad (2011) argued that in 1932 Legislative Council election, party identification model seemed successful. People had affiliation with different political parties. In two urban Muslim constituencies, Pir Baksh and Malik Khuda Baksh choose on the basis of their nationalist repute in NWFP. Conversely, in rural Muslim constituencies, the personal influence of the candidate and their family status in locality played a key role in shaping voting behaviour. This election resultantly won by dominant elite class in their respective constituencies of NWFP. In rural areas, two hereditary Nawabs, two Arababs, three non-tribal chieftains, seven tribal chiefs and a cleric won the election. Tribalism, factional alignments and religious issues considerably influenced the results of elections in

NWFP.

As a result of 1932 Legislative Council election, three nationalist candidates were also elected. It is believed that tribal affiliations and family played a significant role in this election. Habibullah Khan, the former Vice-President of the Bannu Congress secured the majority votes because he had the backing of a sub-section (Gundis) of Marwat tribe.

Similarly, Abdul Qayyum Khan of Safaida won one seat in Hazara. The internal issues among Swati Khans strengthen Qayyum Khan‟s support in election. After the election of the

Legislative Council, its members were distributed into Azad party, Liberal Party,

Progressive Party and minority party. All those political parties in the Legislative Council had no formal organizational structure and ideological bases (Ahmad, 2011).

2.2.2 The 1936-1937 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The government of India Act 1935 awarded NWFP a full-fledged provincial status, whereas, it did not replace the restricted franchise to adult franchise. However, in government of India 1935 Act, the eligibility criteria for the voters were relaxed.

Resultantly, fourteen per cent (14%) of the total population obtained the right to vote for provincial legislative councils. In 1932 election only three per cent of Indians had this right

(Gehlot, 1992:10). The provincial legislative council members were directly elected. But the eligibility criteria for a voter were different from province to province. It was determined on the basis of land revenue or house rent. It is assumed that the voters were mainly stirred by communal considerations in their choices while exercising their right to vote (Gehlot,

1992:13).

In the 1935 Act, provincial autonomy was introduced and governor continued to serve as head of provincial government. Subsequently, the provincial subjects were transferred to the elected ministers. Under the 1935 Act, similar reforms were introduced in the frontier province like other provinces of British India but Governor had additional power of tribal affairs. In December 1936, one hundred and thirty-five (135) candidates were nominated for the provincial legislative assembly. The nominated candidates divided into different groups and political parties. Whereas Congress was more organized and stronger than other parties and groups. As a result of involvement in civil disobedience movement Congress was banned in NWFP. Congress decided to contest elections under the banner of Provincial Parliamentary Board (PPB) (Janson, 1970:66). On the other hand,

Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan was banned in NWFP; therefore, his brother Dr. Khan Sahib had to lead frontier Congress. Loyalty to the nationalist cause and support to agrarian reforms

opened ways for the nomination of Congress candidates. Small Khans of Khudai

Khidmatgar contested from Muslim constituencies in rural areas. While a majority of lawyers contested the election in Muslim urban and general constituencies.

Many Khans contested the election independently. The prominent independently contesting candidates were Khan Bahadur Arbab Sher Ali Khan, Major Nawab Sir Akbar Khan

(Nawab of Hoti), Nawabzada Mohammad Said Khan, Nawab of Teri Karak, Nawabzada

Allah Nawaz Khan and Nawab Zada Nasrullah Khan. However, those Khans who were not part of KK, they were loyal to British Raj. Another important factor was the personal interest of those Khans. As a result of those political developments in several constituencies,

KK benefited from the situation and the anti-Congress vote was split among the rival Khans of NWFP (Ahmad, 2011). Two lawyers Malik Khuda Baksh and Pir Baksh of

Independent party were prominent in township areas. Independent party played the role of opposition in previous legislative council of NWFP (Janson, 1970:70). However, in urban areas, most of the Khudai Khidmatgar contesting candidates for general constituencies were lawyers or doctors. Hindu-Sikh Nationalist Party was the main opposition party which was established during the election campaign. Hindu Sabha and Singh Sabha were the main elements of Hindu-Sikh Nationalist Party (HSNP). HSNP was controlled by wealthy businessmen who were loyal to the British government. The HSNP highlight the issue of

Hindu-Gurmukhi in the election campaign. They demanded to cancel Hindu-Gurmukhi.

HSNP also demanded Urdu and English languages as medium of instruction in girls‟ schools. In 1937 election, the core committee of Muslim League did not allot a single ticket

NWFP. Throughout election campaign, a group of retired senior government officers were supporting Muslim League. This group consists of Nawab Sir Sahibzada Abdul Qayyum,

Khan Bahadur Kuli Khan and Khan Bahadur Saadullah Khan. Moreover, the Khans of

Hazara district were fully supporting Sir Abdul Qayyum (Ahmad, 2011).

The political activities in Peshawar and Mardan demonstrated a strong party identification model in election. Khudai Khidmatgars‟ political activities had deep-rooted party politics in Peshawar and Mardan districts. According to Cunningham, the election in

Mardan and Peshawar districts were mainly dominated by Khudai Khidmatgars and its rival political parties. Those rival political parties used religion during election campaign against

Khudai Khidmatgars (Shah, 1992:20). Janson (1970:71) said that the opponents of Congress highlighted the influence of Hinduism on Bacha Khan and his family. Secretary of State

Lord Zetland also pointed out the role of factional and religious factors in 1937 election.

Some candidates registered their nomination papers with the hope that they would be paid to withdraw during the election campaign (Ahmad et al, 2014). Due to the lack of political awareness, in India as a whole and specifically in NWFP, the majority of the voters were not familiar with the process of voting. In rural areas, the Congress used these two tools: vote to Mr. Gandhi, thereby affirming personality influence in voting behaviour. On the other hand a large number of Khudai Khidmatgars had also used the same technique to canvass voters (Ahmad et al, 2014).

The 1937 election was considered the first election in British India. Some of the

British officials stated that during polling, Congress political agents called Congress ballot box „Gandhi box‟ to attract voters. During the election campaign, the voters were informed that if Congress secured victory all the unpopular laws would be repeal. Elections for fifty members of Provincial Assembly were scheduled in February 1937 (Ahmad, 2011). Polling scheduled from 1st February to 10 February 1937. A total number of registered voters were

179,529 (14% of the population). In 1937 elections, total turnout was 72.8%. In Muslim constituencies, the ratio of turnout was highest while lowest in Sikhs constituencies. Table-2 shows the 1937 election results for the Muslim rural areas.

Table No. 2 NWFP 1937 Elections Results Political Party Types of Constituencies Landhold General General Muslim Muslim Sikh Total Seats ers Rural Urban Rural Urban (PPB) Congress -- 3 1 15 -- -- 19 Independent Party ------2 Independent Muslim 2 -- -- 18 1 -- 21 HSNP -- 3 1 -- -- 3 7 Independent Hindu -- -- 1 ------1 Independent party ------2 -- 2 Total 2 6 3 33 3 3 50 Source: Muhammad Shakeel Ahmad (2011). Electoral Politics in NWFP: A Case Study of 1937 Elections, Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, XXXII (2), 117-131.

In 1937 elections, the Provincial Parliamentary Board (Congress) secured nineteen seats, seven seats won by HSNP and two won by Independent Party. Twenty-two seats won by independent candidates. In Pakhtun rural areas, the Provincial Parliamentary Board

(PPB) well performed particularly in Mardan and Peshawar districts. Provincial

Parliamentary Board won all Muslim rural seats in Peshawar and three seats in district

Mardan. In district Mardan two Congress candidates were disqualified by the British government. Later on, Congress filed petitions and won the by-elections (Islam, 2014:95).

Table No. 3 Distribution of the Muslim Rural Seats in 1937 Elections in the NWFP Districts in NWFP Political Party Peshawar Mardan Hazara Kohat D.I.Khan Bannu Khudai 7 3 2 1 1 1 Khidmatgar (KK) Independent -- 2 7 3 3 3 Source: Returns showing the Results of Elections in India 1937

Frontier Congress faced difficulties to get majority votes, and it won two Muslim urban constituencies in district Hazara. The general seats were distributed in Hindu-Sikh

Nationalist Party and Congress. On the other hand, Muslim independent candidates‟ seats were won by those Khans who were loyal with the British government. The most important post-election development was the establishment of „United Nationalist Party‟ by Sir Abdul

Qayyum. The United Nationalist party made a government with the help of independent members (Shah, 1992:28). Eventually, on 1st April 1937, Sir Abdul Qayyum formed a

coalition with HSNP. As a result of this coalition, Sir Abdul Qayyum Khan formed a

Ministry in NWFP. But this government could not survive for a long time. On 22nd June,

Viceroy‟s statement persuaded Congress which was a majority political party to form a government in India. Consequently, in July 1937, Congress that was a major political party made government in seven provinces. Progressive forces also joined hands with Congress in the frontier. The opposition political parties (HSNP and Hazara Democratic Party) led by

Dr. Khan Sahib passed a No-Confidence Motion on 3rd September 1937 against the incumbent government. The No-Confidence motion was passed by twenty-one (21) out of twenty-seven (27) votes. Because of this No-Confidence motion, the incumbent government loses majority in the provincial legislative council. Dr. Khan, Democratic Party and

Congress formed government in province. This coalition government remained in power for two years and six months (Janson, 1970:71).

In 1937 elections, the manifestoes of Congress and Muslim League were quite similar, in terms of addressing people's needs and securing the freedom from the British

Raj. However, they had differences on the question of communal leadership. The most significant factors, that seriously troubled Congress-League relationship, were the Congress tendency towards a „Uni-Party‟ political system in India that assumed the submergence of other political parties (Hulman, 2013:10).

2.2.3 The 1946 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Congress ministries resigned due to the unilateral decisions of the British government regarding involvement of India in the 2nd World War. Muslim League celebrated the day of deliverance against the Congress ministries on 22nd December 1939. When Second World

War ended in 1945, Viceroy Lord Wavell in Simla Conference fixed date for the next legislatives elections in India. The Viceroy also suggested the formation of an Executive

Council after the election. He also recommended the presence of prominent political parties in Executive Council. As a result of the elections, constituent assembly was formed. 25

During that time, „Pakistan Movement‟ has got considerable importance and attention of the common people in NWFP. However, Muslim League was unable to get significant benefit from this situation as it was divided in different factions. The candidates were selected by the Provincial Selection Committee (PSC) which although was headed by

Nawab of Mamdot, but the real power of the selection was vested in the hands of the board convener Khan Abdul Qayyum Khan. Some senior leaguers who were denied nomination for the election appealed before the Central Selection Committee (CSC) for review.

However, the Central Selection Committee rejected all the appeals except Mian Ziauddin‟s appeal (Janson, 1970:147).

The election campaign of Muslim league candidates was ill-organized and based on personal disputes. On the other hand, Congress campaign was well organized and planned. The election was conducted on 26th January and 14th February 1946 with restricted franchise. After the completion of polling the election results were announced on 18th

February 1946. Khudai Khidmatgar secured thirty seats, while Muslim League won seventeen seats. Khudai Khidmatgar won nearly all seats in Pakhtun dominated areas, whereas it failed to show reputation in Non-Pakhtun constituencies. On the other hand, in

Dera Ismail Khan, Jamiat-ul-Ulema Hind became victorious (Janson, 1970:151). Detail of the 1946 elections assembly seats is given in Table-4.

Table No.4 1946 Elections Results of the NWFP Legislative Assembly Political Parties Muslim Muslim General G. Sikh Land- Total Rural Urban Rural Urban Holders Khudai Khidmatgar (KK) 18 1 6 3 2 -- 30 Muslim League 13 2 ------2 17 Jamiat-ul- Ulema 2 ------2 Hind Akali Dal ------1 -- 1 Total 33 3 6 3 3 2 50 Source: Janson, 1970: 151

Ahrars, Khaksars, Jamiat-ul Ulema Hind and Akali Dal also actively participated in

1946 polls. Ahmad et al. (2014) argues that in 1946 election, “traditional rivalries between 26

Pakhtun and Non-Pakhtuns and other horizontal and longitudinal stratification determined the voting behaviour of the people in NWFP”.

2.3 POST-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS ERA (1947-1970)

2.3.1 The 1951 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The first election for the NWFP Legislative Council in post-independence was held on 15th

December 1951. Before elections, the government introduced some electoral reforms in which restricted franchise was replaced by adult franchise. However, Chief Minister,

Qayyum Khan was in favour of legislative council election but some other Leaguers had personal concerns regarding the election in NWFP. In March 1951, the Constituent

Assembly of Pakistan passed the NWFP General Elections Bill that open the way for election. As a result of this bill, the Provincial Assembly was to be dissolved but Qayyum

Khan was retained as the interim Chief Minister of NWFP. On the other hand, the number of the assembly seats was increased from fifty to eighty-five. Out of eighty-five seats only three were reserved seats. It is also believed that election was influenced by the Muslim

League and it also used different tactics to threaten Khudai Khidmatgar and other political parties. Qayyum Khan, the interim Chief Minister of NWFP fully supported the League in election campaign. The interim government of Qayyum Khan was also involved in the rescheduling of the Mardan and Kohat election dates, delimitations of constituencies and rigging. The League campaign was well organized, rather than the other political parties. In

1951 general elections, Muslim League and Jinnah Muslim League were two main rival political parties (Hassan, 2008). The details of the 1951 election are given in Table-5 below.

Table No. 5 1951 General Elections in NWFP Political Parties Seats Muslim League 67 Jinnah Awami Muslim League 04 Independents 13 Non-Muslim 1 Total 85 Source: M. Rafique Afzal (1986). Political Parties in Pakistan (1947-1958). (Vol.1), Islamabad: National Institute of Historical and Cultural Research, p.66.

The ruling Muslim league again succeeded with majority seats and secured sixty- seven out of eighty-five seats in NWFP. However, Jinnah‟s Awami Muslim League12 a single opposition party secured four seats (all in the district Peshawar). Moreover, thirteen

(13) independents candidates and one non-Muslim candidate won the rest of legislative council seats in NWFP. After the election, all the independent candidates and non-Muslim candidates joined hands with the Muslim League and made government in NWFP (Afzal,

1986:66).

2.3.2 Elections in Ayub Khan Era (1959-65)

General Ayub Khan introduced non-party local bodies‟ elections to preserve the „Status quo’. In 1959, the first round of „Basic Democracies‟ elections was held in the whole country. However, in the first round of BDs elections, eighty thousand (80,000) (later increased to 120,000) councilors were directly elected. The bureaucracy was also part of

BDs system and it had control over the allocation of funds to local developmental schemes.

Waseem (1994:30) pointed out that district bureaucracy was totally involved in BD system.

According to Philip Jones, “the BD System was destined to become less a means of local representation than an arm of the bureaucracy”, (Jones, 1979:188). Personality influence and patronage were dominant factors of voting behaviour in 1959 elections.

Gen. Ayub Khan‟s second strategy was to use the „Basic Democrats‟ as an electoral college to indirectly elect the President, the members of the National and Provincial

12 Husain Shaheed Suhrawardy established Jinnah Awami Muslim League in February 1950. Jinnah Awami League was an opposition political party against the ruling Muslim League (For detail see M. Rafiq Afzal (1986). Political Parties in Pakistan 1947-1958, Vol.1, Islamabad, NIHCR.) 28

Assemblies. Therefore, in presidential election a large number (95.6%) of BD members supported Ayub Khan (Mujahid, 1965:94).

In November 1964, the BDs elections were held for the second time. The

Presidential election was held in January 1965. Majority of BDs (63.3%) of the Electoral

College again elected Ayub Khan as a president of Pakistan. While his rival Ms. Fatima

Jinnah merely secured thirty-six percent (36.4%) votes (Mujahid, 1965). The National

Assembly election was party-based indirect elections. Pakistan Muslim League Convention

(PML-C) of Ayub Khan secured 120 seats and Fifty-four percent (54.8%) of the total votes.

As a result, PML-C won majority seats in National Assembly. On the other hand, PML-C won Forty-eight percent (48.8%) votes and ninety six (96) seats out of 147 seats in West-

Pakistan provincial assembly (Mujahid, 1965).

Table No.6 Presidential Election 1965 Results Candidates E. Pak W. Pak Total Percentage Ayub Khan 21,012 28,939 49,951 63.31 Miss Jinnah 18,434 10,257 28,691 36.36 Source: Hassan Askari Rizvi, (2000). The Military and Politics in Pakistan (1947-1997), Lahore: Sang-e-Meel Publications, p.132.

The details of different political parties‟ position in the national assembly elections are given in Table-7.

Table No.7 National Assembly Election Results Political Party E. Pak W. Pak Total PML-Convention 55 69 124 The Combined 14 01 15 Opposition Parties (COP) Independents 09 08 17 Total 78 78 156 Source: Hassan Askari Rizvi, (2000). The Military and Politics in Pakistan (1947-1997) Lahore: Sang-e-Meel Publications, p.133.

Gen. Ayub did not want to share powers with politicians and therefore he promulgated 1962 Constitution that was one man show. The 1962 Constitution replaced the parliamentary system into presidential system. This constitution enhanced the powers of

president and reduced the powers of parliament. Gen. Ayub dictatorial regime ended in

March 1969, because agitations and protests started against his policies in the whole country. This movement forced President Ayub to resign and gave up powers to General

Mohammad Yahya Khan (Rizvi, 2000).

2.4 THIRD PHASE OF THE ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER

PAKHTUNKHWA (1970-2013)

In March 1969, the political scenario of Pakistan was totally different from October 1958.

In October 1958, common people were fed-up of the civilian government and political instability therefore they welcomed Ayub‟s Martial Law regime. Later on, Ayub Khan dictatorial regime was also rejected by the people and they started protests in East and West wings of Pakistan. Protestors demanded to end the One-Unit system and fresh general election on the basis adult franchise. When Gen. Yahya Khan (Second Chief Martial Law

Administrator) came into power he intended, “the peaceful transfer of power to the people representatives” (Rizwan, 2014). Gen. Yahya Khan abrogated the 1962 Constitution, implemented Legal Framework Order (LFO) on 30th March 1970. The main feature of LFO was the formulation of future constitution. However, many political parties criticized LFO because they considered it was limited the legislation of National Assembly. Therefore it is called „steel frame‟ (Muneer, 2012:63). LFO also contributed a lot to the structure of making the future constitution. One-Unit system was abolished on 1st July 1970 as result of which West Pakistan reorganized into four provinces (Punjab, Sind, North West Frontier

Province and Balochistan). Under the LFO national assembly seats for West-Pakistan were

313 that included thirteen (13) reserved for women. LFO also resolved the issue of representation, and introduced popular representation system. After all these developments first general elections were held on 7th December 1970.

2.4.1 The 1970 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In 1970, the first general elections were held on the basis of „adult franchise‟ in both wings of Pakistan. In this election, electorates of NWFP were confused to decide which political party is the best one, because they had different political parties in hand. In NWFP, a number of political parties that included Wali Khan‟s National Awami Party (NAP),

Qayyum Khan‟s Muslim League, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam and Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan started election campaign. When NAP had decided to contest elections, its position was most prominent in the frontier (NAP divided into two factions one was Pro-Moscow, led by

Khan Abdul Wali Khan and other one is Pro-Peking, led by Bashani,). After the self-exile of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, the leadership of NAP had passed to his son Khan Abdul

Wali Khan. Wali Khan changed the nature of his party politics and made it a patriot, liberal and national standing. He transformed the Pakhtuns nationalist rigidity into more flexible and pragmatic. Resultantly, NAP was counted in the national level political parties in

Pakistan. The election results and party position is given in Table-8.

Table No.8 National Assembly Elections Results Political Parties Votes % N-A Seats Pakistan People Party 14% 01 Pakistan Muslim League (Qayum) 23% 07 Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 07% 01 National Awami Party 18% 03 Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan (Hazarvi Group) 25% 06 Independent candidates 06% 07 Pakistan Muslim League (Council) 04% 00 Pakistan Muslim League (Convention) 01% 00 All Pakistan Central Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and 01% 00 Nizam-e-Islam Pakistan Democratic Party 0% 00 All Pakistan Awami League 0% 00 Pakistan Masihi League 0% 00 Markazi Jamiat-ul-Ulema Pakistan 0% 00 Total 100 25 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

It is believed that hostilities between two major political forces NAP (W) and PML

(Qayyum) revived before 1970 elections. Eventually, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam which was a

third popular force benefited in the coming election from this political polarization. National

Awami Party won only three seats; however, JUI bagged six seats from the Southern districts, Pakistan Peoples Party one seat and one seat by Jamaat-i-Islami. NAP secured

18.8% votes in National Assembly polls and 19.4% votes in the provincial assembly polls.

In this election, Khudai Khidmatgars support was reduced to (51.70%) from the 1946 provincial assembly election. In the Tribal Areas, National Awami Party secured seven seats of independent tribal Maliks. As a result of elections, the NAP position was stronger than other political parties in NWFP (Taqiudin, 1995:107-116). There was another astonishing political development in the NWFP. During election campaign, JUP (H) used the card of religion against NAP to attract voters and won a large number of seats in the national assembly. On the other hand, Sharif Al Mujahid said, “in general terms the East voted for an inward-looking Bengali ethno-centrism, the West for integration. Not only

Punjab‟s vote for the PPP, and the complete rout of the regionalist Sind United Front, but also the more surprising NWFP‟s preference for the QML and JUP (H) as against the

Pakhtoon-oriented NAP (W) is a vote for integration and a fairly strong center” (Mujahid,

1971).

Table No.9 Provincial Assemblies Elections Results Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) National Awami Party 13 Pakistan Muslim League (Q) 10 Independent Candidates 06 Jamiat-Ulema-Islam 04 Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 03 Conventional Muslim League 02 Council Muslim League 02 Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 01 Total 40 Source: Shahid Javid Burki, State and Society in Pakistan 1971-77 (Landon: The Macmillan Press Limited, 1980), p.191.

As a result of 1970 provincial elections, NAP secured majority thirteen (13) seats, followed by PML-Q with ten (10) seats in NWFP. While independent candidates secured

the third position with six seats and JUI four seats while PPP bagged three seats in provincial assembly. Conventional Muslim league and Council Muslim League secured two seats each and JIP got one seat in provincial assembly. In East-Pakistan (Bengal), Pakistan

Muslim League (PML) could not secure a single seat. While, Awami League (AL) emerged most popular political party Bengali electorate, and Pakistan People‟s Party got majority votes at national level but not a majority party in NWFP. Rizwan (2014) argued that kinship, tribal structure were influence voters preferences in NWFP.

2.4.1.1 JUP and 1970 Elections

JUP (H) announced its manifesto and future programme on 20th January 1970. The main point of JUP (H) manifesto was assurance of Islamic constitution in Pakistan. In May 1970,

JUI made a n alliance with nineteen religious political parties. This alliance was headed by

JUI leader Mufti Mehmood. Two other prominent religious figures Bashir Ahmed Bakhtiar and Kausar Niazi were appointed secretaries. Regardless of this political alliance, the JUP

(H)‟s election campaign was organized by its own party committee. During the election campaign, Mufti Mahmud appealed to the voters to accept Islam as an ideology and to endorse the party programme. In this election Ninety (90) JUI candidates submitted their papers for National Assembly in West-Pakistan and fifteen in East-Pakistan. JUI bagged only seven seats West-Pakistan (Taqiudin, 1995:107-116).

2.4.2 The 1977 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

As result of the 1970 elections, Pakistan is divided into two parts, and eastern part became an independent state Bangladesh. The 1970 general elections played the role of a catalyst in the separation of East-Pakistan. After this tragic incident, Gen. Yahya transferred powers to

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He was the first civilian Martial Law administrator of Pakistan. Later on, Bhutto took oath as a Prime Minister of Pakistan. After the completion the government tenure, Bhutto scheduled next election in 1977. M. G. Weinbaum (1977) argued that

Pakistan People‟s Party failed to secure the support of urban middle class. On the other hand, urban poor and industrial labour were supporting it consistently.

Aijaz Ahmad in his work critically analyzes the situation;

“PPP had to be an apparatus predominantly of the radical petty bourgeoisie in

the pre-election [1971] phase when the main objective was to secure a mass

base and an electoral majority, particularly in the countryside. Once, however,

the PPP had formed a government on the social democratic premise of seeking

reforms within the predicates of the state as already constituted… its Left

Wing was faced with the objective choice of either accepting the exigencies of

the State or getting liquidated. In the event, the Left was of course liquidated

(Ahmad, 1978).”

In NWFP Bhutto turned towards rural notables for political support and therefore, allotted tickets to Khans and elites class. In 1970 elections PPP slogan was against feudal landowners, but in 1977 elections it changed into „bring an end to feudalism in Pakistan‟

(PPP Manifesto, 1970:13). Bhutto was surprised to see that, all anti-PPP political parties, joining Pakistan National Alliance (PNA). PNA was established on 21st January 1977 that included nine political parties (PDP, NDP, NAP, JUI, JUP, JI, ML (P), TI, AJKC, and

Khaksar Tehrik) (Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, 2001:661-665). The PNA united all social groups and particularly middle-class people, which had been suffered from the policies of

PPP government (Rizwan, 2014). When the elections results announced, PPP won majority

(155 out of 200) seats in national assembly. PNA secured only thirty-six (36) of national assembly. Interestingly, PNA bagged the majority national assembly seats in NWFP. When the elections results announced, PPP won majority (155 out of 200) seats. The result of the election of different political parties‟ in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is given in Table-10.

Table No. 10 National Assembly Elections Results Political party Percentage of Votes % Seats PNA 49% 17 PPP 38% 08 PML (Qayyum) 08% 00 Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam 0.03% 00 (Hazarvi) Total 100% 25 Source: The first 10 General Elections of Pakistan; A Story of Transition from Democracy above Rule of Law to Democracy Under Rule of Law: 1970-2013. Retrieved from WWW.PILDAT.ORG (22/06/2015)

The national assembly elections were held on 7th March 1977, PNA bagged seventeen (17) seats and forty-nine percent (49%) polled votes of the national assembly seats in NWFP. However, Pakistan Peoples Party secured eight seats and thirty-eight percent (38%) of total polled votes. Unlike the 1970 elections PML-Qayyum vote bank went down from 23% to 8% and could not secure a single national assembly seat in NWFP.

PNA started protests against PPP‟s and blamed the involvement in rigging. The PNA movement demonstrated the growing political clout of the urban middle classes, but Bhutto did not understand the consequences of that movement (PILDAT, 2015). The demands of

PNA were re-election, appointment of new governors, Election Commission staff and district administration. Later on, Bhutto was agreed to accept the PNA‟s demands. Bhutto wanted to sign agreement with PNA on 6th July 1977, but General Zia imposed Martial Law on 5th July 1977 and sent Bhutto behind the bars and suspended the constitution. Later on,

Bhutto was hanged in 1979 by Zia government (Bhutto, 1988).

Table No. 11 Provincial Assembly Elections Results S.No. Political Party Seats in Provincial Assembly 1 Pakistan Peoples Party 65 2 Independents 4 3 Other political parties 14 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan

PNA boycotted the provincial elections and rejected the national assembly elections results. In provincial assembly elections, PPP secured sixty-five out of total eighty-five

seats (eighty general, four women, and one minority). Similarly, four independent candidates were elected and fourteen seats were claimed by other small political parties

(ECP, 1977).

2.4.3 The 1985 Non-Party Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In 1985, Martial Law Administrator Gen. Zia Ul Haq decided to civilianize political authority without completely transferring power to politicians. The 1985 elections were party-less (Rais, 1985). Each one of the candidates contested election on her/his personal influence rather than any political party attachment. The 1985 elections data is limited to the candidates, therefore political party‟s position was not clear (Chandio, 2911). This non- party election affected voting preferences of the voters in NWFP and other provinces of

Pakistan. The absence of political parties in elections compelled voters to give their votes on the basis of family connections/relations, Biradari (brotherhood), the performance of the candidate, personal influence, personality and kinship etc. The non-party election and ban on the election campaign, public rallies and speeches prevented debate on national issues.

Moreover, only independent candidates could contest the election. The election campaign in rural areas focused on local issues. Rais (1985) pointed out that social determents (tribe,

Biradari and family) and candidate personal influence determined voters‟ preferences.

Moreover, 1985 non-party elections revived the land-owning classes in national politics. Out of two hundred (200) directly elected MNAs, 117 belonging to the landed aristocracy, while seventeen (17) had the tribal social background; forty-two Seats were businessmen, who form the second largest social group (Chandio, 2011). There was another important development; despite conservative and feudal tendencies, the elected National

Assembly was a relatively young and fairly well-educated group of representatives. The

Gallup Pakistan survey describes, that two-thirds of the parliament members had a college education and possessed a bachelor‟s or higher degree. The average age of national assembly members was forty-five years; twenty-eight percent (28%) of them were under

forty. About half of the elected members of the national assembly had a party affiliation at one time or another. As a result of 1985 elections, Mohammad Khan Junejo became the prime minister of Pakistan. Gen. Zia passed 8th amendment on November 14th, 1985 that affected the parliamentary nature of 1973 Constitution of Pakistan (Rais, 1985). In 8th amendment, President had the right to nominate judges of High courts and Supreme Court, governors of the four provinces and even Prime Minister. As a result of this amendment, the head of the parliament who was Prime Minister became subservient to an unelected

President (Perveen, 2000). After some time, the Prime Minister Junejo‟s relations with

President Zia deteriorated. As a result, Junejo‟s government was dismissed on May 29,

1988 by General Zia (Rais, 1985).

2.4.4 The 1988 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

After the assassination of Gen. Zia on 17th August 1988, Chairman Senate Ghulam Ishaq

Khan stepped as acting President of Pakistan. President Ishaq promised free and fair election that was already scheduled by Gen. Zia on 16th and 19th November 1988 (Khan,

2009:389). The 1988 elections were held in a peaceful environment on November 16th and

19th. An important step had taken to stop rigging; the voter must show his/her identity card in the polling station. The election turnout was less than fifty percent (50%). PPP secured ninety-three (93) seats followed Islami-Jamhuri-Ittihad (IJI)13 with fifty-five (55) seats and the rest of national assembly seats owned by independent and other small political parties.

In NWFP, IJI secured eight (8) seats and 27% of total polled votes, while PPP got nine seats and 23% polled votes, ANP with 17% voters support secured only two seats. However, independent candidates got three seats with 16% voters support and JUI-F bagged three seats and 10% voters support. Table-12 shows the results and different political parties vote bank.

13 Islami Jamhuri Ittihad (IJI): it was an alliance of nine disparate political parties, the main constituents being the Pakistan Muslim league Junejo (PML-J), Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, National Peoples Party and independent Parliamentary groups. 37

Table No.12 National Assembly Elections Results Political Parties Votes% Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) Islami-Jamhuri-Itehad (IJI) 27% 09 Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 23% 08 Awami National Party 17% 02 Independent 16% 03 Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal ur Rehman 10% 03 Jamiat-Ulema-e-Pakistan (Darkhasti Group) 02% 01 Pakistan Awami Ittehad 03% 00 Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Fiqah-e-Jafaria 01% 00 Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party 0.15% 00 Hazara Front (Mahaz-e-Hazara) 0.09% 00 Pakistan Milli Awami Ittehad (Pushtoonkhwa) 0.07% 00 Awami National Party (Ainee Group) 0.05% 00 Total 100 26 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

In NWFP, IJI with twenty-eight (28) seats on the top followed by PPP with twenty- two (22) seats. Independent candidates‟ secured fifteen (15) seats and the last one were

Awami National Party which won thirteen (13) seats in provincial Assembly of NWFP presented in Table-13.

Table No. 13 Provincial Assembly Election Results Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 22 Islami Jamhuri Ithehad (IJI) 28 Independents 15 Awami National Party (ANP) 13 Total 78 Source: 1988 General Elections in Pakistan Report

The 1988 elections results presented a multi-dimensional voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP). There were also political determinants in the shape of political party identification, ideological attachment with a political party, election campaign, manifesto of the party and the social and economic issues. Additionally, personality vote and social networks were also played a key role in the voter choice. As a result of the 1988 elections, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the political situation was complex, because no single political party possessed majority in the provincial assembly. Pakistan

Peoples Party leader, Benazir Bhutto joined hands with Khan Abdul Wali Khan to form a coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the support of some independent candidates (Khan, 2009:399). As a result of this coalition, Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao became chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But this coalition did not stay long and after a short time, ANP left the coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

2.4.5 The 1990 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Opposition political parties commenced a movement against Benazir Bhutto government, and blamed her government‟s involvement in corruption and malpractices. As a result,

President Ishaq dissolved the national and provincial assemblies on 6th August 1990 and announced new elections. After the dismissal of PPP government, President Ishaq appointed

Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi caretaker Prime Minister. President Ishaq also announced date of next elections that was 24th October 1990 (Nohlen et al, 2001). Islami-Jamhuri-Ithihad (IJI) and Pakistan People‟s Party (PPP) started an election campaign. During the election campaign, IJI blamed PPP on corruption and malpractices like previous election. However,

PPP adopted a defensive position and raised the slogan against President Ishaq, and made an alliance known as Peoples Democratic Alliance (PDA). After all these political developments elections were held on 24th October 1990 (Nohlen et al, 2001).

Table No.14 National Assembly Election Results Political Parties Votes% National Assembly seats IJI 23.74% 08 PDA 22.51% 05 ANP 15% 06 JUI-F 20.57% 04 Independent 16.46% 03 PAT 0.73% 00 QIP 0.62% 00 PKMAP 0.15% 00 JUP(N) 0.11% 00 HF 00 00 PMKP 00 00 NDP 00 00 PDP 00 00 Total 100 26 39

Source: Hamid Khan, Constitutional and Political History of Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2009), p.409.

Table-14 shows the national assembly seats results in 1990 elections in NWFP. In national assembly seats, IJI secured eight (8) seats and 23.7% of total polled votes, ANP got the second position bagged six (6) seats and 15% of total polled votes, followed by PDA with five (5) seats and 22.5% votes, JUI-F won four (4) seats and a support of 20.5% votes and lastly independent candidates scored three (3) seats and 16.4% of total polled votes in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1990 elections IJI popularity decreased and it secured the support of 23% voters that was 27% in the previous election. Nawaz Sharif became the Prime

Minister of Pakistan and leader of the House.

Table No.15 Provincial Assembly Election Results Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Assembly seats Political Parties Islami Jamhuri Itehad (IJI) 32 People Democratic Allaince (PDA) 06 Awami National Party (ANP) 22 Jamait Ulema I Islam (JUI-f) 02 Independent 16 Total 78 Source: Hamid Khan, Constitutional and Political History of Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 409.

Table-15 presents breakup of the provincial assembly election results, in which IJI won thirty-two (32) seats followed by ANP Pakhtun nationalist political party with twenty- one (21) seats. PDA secured six (6) seats and JUI-F only two (2) seats in the provincial assembly. There were sixteen (16) independent candidates also elected in provincial assembly. Consequently, once again IJI and ANP formed a coalition government in province and Mir Afzal Khan of Mardan became the Chief Minister. In this election, we can see the role of party identification model in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, other determinants like personal influence of candidate, tribal affiliation and kinship also found in various constituencies.

2.4.6 The 1993 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The IJI government under the premiership of Nawaz Sharif was remained only for two and half years. The differences between Prime Minister and President started on the question of distribution of power. PM Nawaz wanted to amend the constitution and undo the discretionary power of the president and the power of the appointment of chief of the armed forces. However, President Ishaq was not ready to amend the constitution and transfer presidential powers to Prime Mistier.

On 17th April 1993, Nawaz Sharif in a radio speech openly criticized President

Ishaq. In a reaction President Ishaq dismissed Nawaz Sharif government on 18th April 1993 and dissolved the national assembly. Gohar Ayub speaker of the national assembly challenged this act of President in Lahore High Court (LHC). Lahore High Court declared it valid while Supreme Court of Pakistan decision was against Lahore High Court (Rizvi,

1993:19). After the Supreme Court decision, Nawaz government was restored but President

Ishaq again dismissed the Nawaz government and appointed caretaker government and

Moeen Quraishi became caretaker Prime Minister. The drop scene of this tussle was that

Ishaq also relinquished the office of President (Ziring, 2010:542). Caretaker PM Moeen

Qureshi announced 6th October 1993 for fresh elections. After the end of President Ishaq era, Chairman Senate Waseem Sajjad was stepped as acting President. Waseem Sajjad endorsed that the new round of elections scheduled on 6th October 1993. After the announcement of election date, political parties started election campaign in all provinces.

Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan Peoples Party were two rival competitors in election. The leadership of both political parties started mudslinging against each other in election campaign. In the election campaign, political parties presented their manifestos before the voters (Zafar and Husain, 1994:41-43). In NWFP the prominent political parties were PPP, PML, ANP and religious political parties (JUI-F, JI and JUI-S). Elections were

conducted peacefully under the caretaker setup. Pakistan Peoples Party got majority seats and Benazir Bhutto became second time the Prime Minister of Pakistan (Khan, 2009:440).

Table No.16 National Assembly Election Results Khyber Pakhtunkhwa national Political Parties Vote% assembly seats Pakistan Muslim League-(N) 26 10 Pakistan Peoples Party 15 05 Awami National Party 15 01 Pakistan Islamic Front (PIF) 12 -- Independent 11 02 Islami Jamhori Mohaz (IJM) 11 02 PML-Junejo 05 -- Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party (PKQP) 02 01 PDA 02 01 Mutehda Deeni Mahaz (MDN) 01 -- Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.13 -- Hazara Front 0.03 -- Haq Parast Group 0.01 -- Total 100 33 Source: Mohammad Waseem, (1994). The 1993 Elections in Pakistan, Vanguard Books Pvt. Ltd: Islamabad, p.154

In frontier PML-N owned ten (10) seats and 26% polled votes, PPP secured five (5) seats and 15% polled votes, Awami National Party bagged one (1) seat and 15% votes.

Pakistan Islamic Front (PIF) secured one (1) seat and 12% votes; two independent candidates passed with 11% polled votes. However, Islami-Jamhori-Itihad secured two seats and 11% polled votes. Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party and Pakistan Democratic Alliance secured one seat each. The rest of political parties could not secure any seat of national assembly from NWFP. The vote bank of PML-N reached to 26% in NWFP. However, PPP and ANP got an equal percentage of votes. In 1993 general elections we can see a shift of voters from one political party to another.

Table No.17 Provincial Assembly Election Results Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly Pakistan Peoples Party 22 Pakistan Muslim League –Nawaz 15 Pakistan Muslim League –Junijo 04 Awami National Party 21 PIF 04 IJM 01 MDM 01 Jamiat Mashaikh Pakistan (JMP) 01 Independent 11 Total 80 Source: Mohammad Waseem, The 1993 Elections in Pakistan, Vanguard Books Pvt. Ltd: Islamabd, 1994, p.165

Table-17 presented the provincial assembly election results and political parties positions. PPP secured twenty-two (22) seats followed by ANP with twenty-one (21) seats,

PML-N owned fifteen (15) seats and PML-J got four (4) seats in the provincial assembly.

PML-N and ANP alliance had a clear edge on PPP. Therefore, PML-N appeared ruling party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pir Sabir Shah became Chief Minister of the province.

Pir Sabir Shah Government was overthrown by a questionable constitutional means and

Aftab Sherpao who belonged to PPP was appointed as Chief Minister of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa for the second time. Pakistan Peoples Party government did not complete its five years tenure. The unconstitutional steps, corruption, extrajudicial killing and political victimization forced President Leghari to dismiss the Benazir Bhutto government on

November 5th, 1996 (Khan, 2009:441).

2.4.7 The 1997 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari appointed Miraj Khalid as the caretaker Prime

Minister of Pakistan. Miraj Khalid government announced fresh elections date that was

February 5th, 1997. After the announcement of election date, PPP, PML (N) and other political parties started election campaigns in all provinces. The main agenda of PPP and

PML-N was the politics of victimization (Khan, 2009:441). There was a new development during election that both National and Provincial Assemblies‟ elections were held on the

same day, and the people of FATA were given the right to vote after the fifty years of independence. In 1997 General Elections Khyber Pakhtunkhwa voters polled their votes to different political parties, the national and provincial assemblies results are given in Table-

18 and Table-19.

Table No.18 National Assembly Election Results Political Parties Percentage of votes Number of seats PML-N 27% 15 ANP 16% 10 Independent 34% 09 PPP 08% -- JUI-F 07% -- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 03% -- Pakistan Muslim League (J) 02% -- Pakistan Aman Party 01% -- Pakistan Peoples Pary Shaheed Bhutto 01% -- Jamiat Ulema e Islam (Sami ul Haq Group) 01% -- Awami Qiadat Party 0.14% -- Haq Parast Group 0.10% -- Tehreek Islam Pakistan 0.07% -- Pakistan Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.06% -- National Peoples Party (Workers Group) 0.03% -- Total 100 34 Source: Gilani‟s index of Electoral Record (1970-2008) based on data provided election commission of Pakistan. (www.gallup.com.pk)

In General Elections 1997, PML-N secured fifteen (15) national assembly seats and

27% of total polled votes, ANP won ten (10) seats and 16% votes. However, independent candidates secured nine (9) seats and 34% votes. The rest of the political parties did not secure a single seat of the national assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1993 election,

PML-N got only 15% of the total polled vote that increased to 27% in 1997. However, the position of PPP voters support reduced in 1997 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Table No.19 Provincial Assembly Elections Results Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) Pakistan Muslim League (N) 31 Awami National Party 28 Pakistan Peoples Party 04 Independents 11 Other parties 03 Total 77 Source: 1997 General Electionss in Pakistan Report

Table-19 portrays a different picture of 1997 provincial assembly election from 1993 because the PML-N position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and particularly in Hazara Division was stronger than PPP and other political parties, therefore, PML-N secured thirty-one (31) seats in the provincial assembly. The PPP ratio went down and ANP secured twenty-eight

(28) seats which was a great achievement in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Independent candidates owned eleven (11) seats and PPP only four (4) provincial assembly seats. In Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, Awami National Party and PML-N joined hands and formed a coalition government and Sardar Mahtab Abbasi became Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

After formation of federal and provincial governments, Nawaz Sharif had apprehension regarding 58(2)b that was a hanging sword on parliament. Therefore, he amended the constitution by passing the 13th amendment on 4th April 1997 with a massive mandate

(Khan, 2009:451). Accordingly, Nawaz Sharif became a powerful Prime Minister of

Pakistan. After some time, government‟s relationship with military and judiciary lead to hostility. This confrontation caused the dismissal of Nawaz government. The immediate cause of the dismissal of Nawaz government was Kargil crisis14. In October 1999 the situation was worsened, when Prime Minister Sharif attempted to remove the Chief of

14 Kargil Crisis: Kargil crisis started in the early months of 1999. Certain mountain peaks in the region of Kargil, from where Pakistani forces were ejected by Indians some years ago, were occupied by Mujahideen backed by Pakistan army. The Indian army was badly trapped but India successfully opened a propaganda front at the international scene. Indian propaganda was so successful that even close friend China refused to help Pakistan. Circumstances forced the civilian government to seek the solution through International actors otherwise security of Pakistan was jeopardized. Nawaz Sharif rushed to the USA for help. Clinton the then president conditioned the aid in the Kargil with the return of army and Mujahideen from Kargil. Consequently, army and Mujahideen were withdrawn from the Kargil. Nawaz complained against the army and army chief claimed that Nawaz government was responsible for this crisis. In this way, a rift between the relations of the army and government started. 45

Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The Kargil crisis caused differences between army Chief Pervez Musharraf and government, consequently on

12th October 1999, Gen. Musharraf imposed martial law and became „Chief Executive‟ and dismissed Nawaz Sharif government (DAWN Report, July 7th 2018).

2.4.8 The 2002 General Electionss in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The October 1999, coup d'etat was the fourth direct army intervention in Pakistan. Chief of

Army Staff Gen. Pervez Musharraf as a military dictator took the reins of the government and dismissed elected government of Nawaz Sharif. Gen. Musharraf promised to conduct fresh elections as soon as possible, but elections postponed until October 2002. The Election

Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced fresh election on 10th October 2002. During the election campaign, Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) appeared a major political party on the political scene of Pakistan. Another Pro-Musharraf alliance of six small political parties called National Alliance (NA) also contest elections. On the other hand, religious political parties also formed an alliance called Muthahida-Majlis-Amal

(MMA) (Ansari, 2003). MMA was a group of six religious parties of Pakistan i.e., JIP, JUI-

F, JUI-S JUP, Tehreek-e-Jafaria Pakistan, Jamiat-Ahle-Hadith (Khan, 2014). The elections were held on 10th October 2002. In Table-20 shows the 2002 election political parties position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Table-20 National Assembly Election Results Political Parties Vote% NA Seats Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) 42 29 Independent 17 12 PML-Q 13 04 Pakistan Peoples Party 9 -- Awami National Party 8 -- Pakistan Muslim League-N 5 -- PPP-Sherpao 03 -- Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf 01 -- National Alliance (NA) 01 -- Pakistan Awami Tehreek 0.29 -- Pakistan Muslim Leaugue (Jinnah) 0.18 -- Qaumi Jamhoori Party 0.14 -- Pakistan Muslim League Z 0.11 -- Hazara Qaumi Mahaz 0.10 -- Pakistan Awami Party 0.08 -- Pakistan Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.07 -- Pak Wattan Party 0.05 -- Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party 0.03 -- Muttahda Qaumi Movement 0.02 -- Total 100 47 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

In Malakand Division, MMA got seven (7) national assembly seats and one (1) seat by PPP-Sherpao group, while in southern areas that consist on Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Kohat division, MMA secured seven (11) seats while independent candidates won twelve (12) seats. In the central region that consists of Peshawar and Mardan divisions,

MMA won twelve (12) seats and PPP-S one (1) seat of National assembly, however, in

Hazara division, PML-Q secured four (4) seats and MMA bagged three (3) seats of National

Assembly (ECP Report, 2002). In General Elections 2002, MMA 42%, independent candidates 17%, PML-Q 13%, PPP 9%, ANP 8%, PML-N 5%, PPP-Sherpao 3%, PTI and

National Alliance 1% each and Pakistan Awami Tehreek 0.29% support of the total polled vote in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 9/11 attacks on twins‟ tower, United States and

NATO forces attacked on Afghanistan. People living on both sides of Durand line are

Pakhtuns; therefore, they have a sense of belongingness with each other. The US attack on

Afghanistan created a sense of anti-Americanism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. MMA a 47

religious political alliance took advantage of this situation and used slogans against the US and its allies during the election campaign (Rauf and Ayaz, 2011: Ansari and Moten, 2003).

However, MMA‟s religious attachment attracted the majority of the voters in General

Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, MMA bagged forty-seven (47) seats which were the highest number of national assembly seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unlike the previous General Elections in the General Elections 2002, MMA secured 42% votes, which showed a huge shift in vote bank from PML-N, PPP and ANP. However, in the provincial assembly MMA also performed better than any other political party in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

Table-21 Provincial Assembly Election Results Political Parties General Women Minorities Total MMA 53 13 02 68 PPP (S) 10 02 01 13 PPP-P 08 02 -- 10 ANP 08 02 -- 10 Independents 06 -- -- 06 PML(Q) 08 02 -- 10 PML (N) 04 01 -- 05 SQM 01 -- -- 01 PTI 01 -- -- 01 Total 99 22 03 124 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)

In General Elections 2002, Pakhtun nationalist party ANP failed to secure a single seat in the National Assembly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The ANP seat adjustment policy with PPP-P was also ineffective at lower level in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Taliban factor also played a key role in the integration of religious political parties because majority of Taliban were ethnically Pakhtuns (Waseem, 2006: 159). The ANP leadership showed no credibility with its secular credentials than the pro-Taliban Pakhtun electoral candidates, who asked the electorate to vote for the „Book‟15 in the election. After PPP and PML-N the MMA became the third largest political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Majority of MMA‟s candidates

15 „Book‟ was the election symbol of MMA in General elections 2002. People considered that symbol of book as „Quran‟. 48

belonged to the middle class or lower middle class. Another important factor of MMA‟s

victory was that the candidates‟ were religious seminaries which had direct contact with

common people during prayer time and other religious activities. MMA candidates took

benefit from these platforms and expressed their views during election campaign against

other candidates easily.

In the provincial assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, MMA secured the highest fifty-

three (53) seats, PPP eight (8) seats, PPP-S ten (10) seats, ANP eight (8) seats, PML-Q eight

(8) seats, independent six (6) seats, PML-N four (4) seats, PTI and SQM one (1) each seat.

As a result of 2002 election MMA formed government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while

PML-Q and other small political parties made government in the center.

2.4.9 The 2008 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

After the expiration of five years term of the assemblies, President Musharraf appointed an

interim government and Chairman Senate Muhammad Mian Soomro was appointed as a

Prime Minister. The Election Commission of Pakistan announced the schedule for the next

general elections on 8thJanuary 2008. But the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto on 27th

December 2007 worsened the law and order situation and resultantly elections were

postponed until 18th February 2008. The election campaign started in the whole country.

Jamat-i-Islami, Pakistan-Tehrik-Insaf and Pakhtunkhwa Milli-Awami-Party boycotted the

election on the issue of judiciary.16 The main contesting political parties in 2008 election

were PPP-P, PML (N), PML (Q), MMA, MQM, ANP etc (Nelson, 2009). General Elections

2008 results were totally different from the previous election. In this election, voters used

the ballots against the previous government policies and program and rejected them.

Another significant issue was 3rd November 2007, when Gen. Musharraf promulgated

16 President General Musharraf implemented Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) on November 3, 2007 which was a state of emergency and suspends the Constitution of Pakistan. Under PCO all the High Court and Supreme Court judges were directed to take oath. A seven-member bench led by Chief Justice Iftihar Muhammad Chudaray issued a restraining order against PCO on the same day. As a result Chief Justice Iftihar Muhammad Chaudary and other judges who did not take oath under PCO were removed from their posts. Consequently, lawyer and political parties started movement to reinstall the judges. Jamaat-i-Islami, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party boycotted the election. 49

emergency against the judiciary and sacked the office of Chief Justice of Pakistan without any valid reason. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the voters were not satisfied with the MMA and

PML-Q performance. Secondly, MMA government failed to handle terrorism in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. During election campaign, other political parties blamed the MMA policies regarding terrorism.

Table No. 22 National Assembly Election Results Political Parties Vote% National Assembly Seats Independent 24 13 Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian 17 09 Awami National Party 16 10 Pakistan Muslim League-Q 14 05 Muttahidda Majilis e Amal 12 04 Pakistan Muslim League –N 12 04 Pakistan Peoples Party (Sherpao) 4 01 Pakistan Awami Party 0.50 01 Pakistan citizen Movement 0.14 00 Mutahida Qaumi Movement 0.13 00 Pakistan Bachao Party 0.07 00 Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 0.05 00 Pakistan Muhafiz Party 0.04 00 Pakistan Peoples Party (Shaheed 0.01 00 Bhutto) Total 100 43 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

Table-22 presents the 2008 general elections results. In 2008 elections independent candidates secured thirteen (13) seats and 24% of total polled votes, ANP secured ten (10) seats and 16% votes, PPP-P won nine (9) seats and 17% votes, PML-Q secured five (5) seats and 14% votes, MMA secured four (4) seats and 12 % votes, PML-N own four (4) seats and 12% votes, PPP-Sherpao secured one (1) seats and 4% of votes and Pakistan

Awami Party secured one (1) seat and 0.50% of the national assembly seats of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. The MMA and PML-Q failed to secure its previous position in 2008 election.

The voters were shifted from religious political parties to ethno-nationalist political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Table No. 23 Provincial Assembly Election Results Political Parties KP Assembly Awami National Party 48 Pakistan Peoples Party 30 MMA 14 Pakistan Muslim League-N 09 Pakistan Muslim League-Q 06 Pakistan Peoples Party-S 06 Jamiat Ulema Islam-S 01 Independents 10 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan Report 2008

In 2002 General Elections, MMA a group of six religious political parties won fifty- three (53) seats but in 2008 general elections Awami National Party (ANP) and PPP got majority seats forty-eight (48) and thirty (30) seats respectively in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly. There was a setback to MMA in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and it got only fourteen (14) seats in provincial assembly. PML-N won nine (9) seats in Hazara division and other parts of province while PPP-Sherpao and PML-Q succeeded six (6) seats each in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly. As a result of these elections, ANP and PPP jointly made government and Amir Haider Khan Hoti became the Chief Minister of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (Daily Mashriq, 5th November 2008).

2.4.10 The 2013 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The successful completion of PPP‟s five years term in center and ANP in the Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa led to commencement of next general elections on May 11, 2013. After the announcement of election date, the political parties started campaign throughout the country. During the elections, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threatened the ANP and other leftist political parties therefore; those political parties limited their campaign. In

General Elections 2013, ANP could not present their previous government performance in front of the voters. Another very important development in the general elections 2013 was the emergence of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Chairman of PTI

Imran Khan started the election campaign with the slogan of „Change‟. The voters of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa supported PTI because of the personality of Imran Khan. As well as, in general elections 2013 voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa found a new option besides of the old political parties (ECP, 2013). Therefore, a large number of people voted for PTI candidates. The details of the assembly seats are given the following Table-24 and Table-

25.

Table No.24 National Assembly Elections Results Name of Political Party Vote% NA Seats Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 27 17 JUI-F/MMA 16 04 Pakistan Muslim League-N 15 06 Independent 13 7 Jamat-i-Islami 07 03 Awami National Party 07 01 PPP 07 01 Other political parties 05 02 JUI- Others 1 1 PML-Others 1 1 PML-Q 0.18 -- PPP-Others 0.02 -- Total 100 44 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan

The General Elections 2013 the results were completely different from the 2008 general elections. PTI emerged the third prominent political force in Pakistan and a popular political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2013, PTI secured seventeen

(17) seats and 27% of total polled votes, PML-N six (6) seats and 16% votes, MMA secured four (4) seats and 16% votes, independent seven (7) seats and 13% votes, JI three (3) seats and 7% votes, PPP and ANP one (1) seat each and 7% votes each, and other political parties secured four (4) seats. However, PTI leadership used different strategies to attract the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. During election campaign PTI candidates were blaming ANP and

PPP for corruption. The PTI contesting candidates highlight the corruption of ANP and PPP candidates in their election speeches.

The results of both national and provincial assembly show that voting behaviour is changed in 2013 elections. Secondly, PTI was a new political party therefore; voters want to 52

test its government. A large number of voters who voted for ANP and PPP in the previous elections changed their political loyalties and support the PTI in general elections 2013. As a result of that change in voting behaviour, PTI got twenty-seven percent (27%) polled vote while ANP graph went down from sixteen (16%) to seven (7%) percent voters support

(ECP, 2013).

Table No. 25 Provincial Assembly Election Results Political Party General Seats Women Non- Total Seats Muslims Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 35 10 1 46 Pakistan Muslim League (N ) 13 03 1 17 Jamiat Ulma-e-Islam (F) 13 03 1 17 Qoumi Wattan Party 07 01 08 Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 07 01 08 Awami National Party 04 01 05 Pakistan Peoples Party 03 01 04 Awami Jamhori Itihad 03 01 04 All Pakistan Muslim League 01 - 01 Independents 12 - 12 Source: http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/pk/party-postion.html retrived on March 7, 2017.

In General Elections 2013, results show that PTI won forty-six (46) seats, PML-N and JUI-F with seventeen (17) seats each, JI and QWP secured eight (8) seats each, while independent candidates secured twelve (12) seats. ANP secured only five (5) seats, PPP and

AJI got four (4) seats each and one (1) seat won by All Pakistan Muslim League. ANP and

PPP that had majority seats in 2008 failed to retain its position in 2013 election in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of the 2013 election, PTI, JI, QWP and AJIP made a coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 2013 election PTI completed its five years tenure on May 2018.

Why Do we Study Electoral History

History is an important subject for the study of elections and voting behaviour. Therefore researcher included a chapter which composed of pre-independence and post-independence electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Electoral history provides us a perspective about

the electoral process that where we are and where are we going. It also makes available the information about political parties, politicians and other stakeholders in the electoral process. Electoral history also figure out the past mistakes and blunders. Hence the policy makers, politicians, and political parties will not repeat those mistakes. Moreover, electoral history linked the electoral process with the complexities of culture and society. On the basis of all these pros and cons, we can say that electoral history is a very important subject.

Summary

The political and electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is rich and full of developments.

However, the first political and non-violent movement that called Khudai Khidmatgar started from this province. Khudai Khidmatgar movement politically provoked the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa against the British raj. On the other hand, Khudai Khidmatgar was a popular socio-political organization and participated in each election before partition.

Along with that, Muslim League and JUI also had a large support in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa before the independence.

The post-independence elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can be classified into these categories. Firstly, since General Elections 1970, in each election different political parties came into power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is very common that once political parties win an election in the next election it is not possible to retain its position. Second important characteristic of the electoral politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the increasing number of independent candidates. In each election, a large number of independent candidates contest election and many candidates won seats as well as large number of voters support. Independent candidates contest election to use personal influence in the constituency. Thirdly, during elections, the pre-poll alliance and seat adjustment of political parties are common in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lastly, the elections results depict a frequent

change in voting behaviour of voters in each election. Therefore, this changing behaviour of the voters directly affects the election results in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

It is assumed that, the voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are more independent than the voters of other provinces of Pakistan. The main reason of their independent behaviour is politically weak feudal class (Khans or Landlords). The Chaudarys in Punjab, Sardars is

Baluchistan and Wadiras is Sindh have strong political control on the peasants and other lower classes of society. During elections feudal class give directives to their subordinates about political parties and candidates. But in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the voters are almost independent from the directives of feudal class in elections. We can see that in 2002

General Elections a group of religious political parties MMA (a large number of MMA candidates belonged to lower or middle class) got majority votes, while in 2008 election

ANP an ethnic nationalist political party secured majority votes and in 2013 General

Elections PTI a new centralist party won with majority votes.

The dominant factors of voting preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are party affiliation, issues, religion, candidate‟s personality and social networks. All these determinants are constantly playing a key role in shaping voting behaviour in different elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

CHAPTER – 3

COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THREE GENERAL ELECTIONS (2002, 2008, 2013)

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shows ups and downs of many political parties in different elections. Since 1932 to 2013 elections different religious, ethnic and nationalist political parties played their role in the political development and electoral politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Religious political parties are using religion as a tool to attract the voters in elections. Whereas, ethnic political parties presented ethnic issues in election campaign, while nationalist political parties are focusing on strong federation and national integration. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa all these political parties have their vote bank and contest election constantly but their position is different (casted vote in favour of a political party) in each election. This fluctuation in the political parties vote bank is because of the presence of significant ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. This part of the study measure the ratio of partisan and floating voters by the comparison of political parties contesting candidates votes in three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in the selected constituencies.

Dobson and Angelo (1975) argue that those voters who did not cast vote for the same political party in two consecutive elections are called floating voters. Floating voters are permanently not associated with a single political party, but they are changing their loyalties in subsequent election. On the other hand partisans are sticking around to a political party. Lindberg argue that, voting behaviour of floating voters is affected by different social, political and economic factors (Lindberg, 2010). Those factors including

Qawm (tribe), Khel (clan) social status, personality of candidate, religion and political party are determining the floating voter‟s electoral behaviour. The results of three recent general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa show that there is a potential ratio 56

of floating voters and partisans that are playing a decisive role in election results. The question arises that “What is the ratio of partisans and floating voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa? How partisans and floating voters affect the election results?

During military regime of General Zia Ul Haq, political parties were banned and the non-party elections were conducted in Pakistan in 1985. General Zia wanted to protect his dictatorial regime to hinder the political parties, particularly Pakistan Peoples Party (Yaseen et al, 2016). As a result of non-party elections, democratization process disrupted in

Pakistan and a large number of party voters changed their party loyalties and voted for independent candidates. In 1985 non-party election, voters were encouraged to change their political parties. On the other hand, non-party election encouraged independent candidates to contest election. After Zia regime, the ratio of independent candidates increased in different constituencies of Pakistan in general and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly. In a multi-party political system all political parties felt uncertainty about their position to attain electoral targets in elections. To make safe the future, political parties seeking electoral alliances or seat adjustment between two or more political parties in different constituencies before the election. However, some political parties give their tickets to those candidates who are economically sound and have personal influence in the constituency to easily win the election.

In General Elections 2002, six religious political parties joined hands in the shape of

Mutahidda-Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) to contest the election, while in General Elections 2008,

Awmai National Party (ANP) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) made an alliance and seat adjustment on different constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2013 again ANP and JUI joined hands to compete PTI.

In the first portion of the chapter, an attempt is made to compare the three recent elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) results of the randomly six selected constituencies of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The comparison of the three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) polled

votes to a party candidate can trace floating voters and party-loyal voters in different constituencies. In this chapter, only those constituencies are discussing from where data was collected that consist on six districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. From Southern region, NA-

27 Lakki Marwat and NA-15 Karak districts and NA-8 Charsadda and NA-9 Mardan selected from Central region. NA-32 Chitral and NA-34 Lower Dir were selected from

Northern geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province consists of twenty six districts and thirty-five national assembly constituencies17. These constituencies can be divided into three large geographical regions, North, Centre and South. In the first part of this chapter the Southern part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is discussed, followed by Centre and lastly the Northern constituencies. The comparison of the voters‟ support in each election to party candidate with other election shows a variation. That variation of voters from one political party candidate to other party provides a clear picture of floating voters and party loyal voters in each election.

3.2 SOUTHERN GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE

The Southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists on Kohat, Karak, Lakki Marwat,

Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Tank districts. These districts are comparatively underdeveloped than the Northern and Central regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The economic position of this region and voting behaviour of the voters in southern region is different from other parts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Both National Assembly seats NA-15 Karak and NA-27 Lakki Marwat are geographically contiguous with each other but the electoral behaviour in both districts is different from each other. In Karak, the dominant factor of voting choice is the personal

17 In General election 2018 Election Commission of Pakistan delimitation of some constituencies and the number of national assembly constituencies increased from thirty-five to thirty-nine general seats. In previous elections NA-1 was Peshawar, now after the delimitation of constituencies the NA seats started from the north that is NA-1 Chitral. 58

influence of candidate and party identification model, while in Lakki Marwat religion is more dominant factor but party identification model is also working.

The map shows all the National Assembly constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Through this map, we can easily identify the location of different constituencies of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (See Figure-1).

Figure-1 National Assembly Constituencies18

Source: www.alhasan.com

18 NA-32 Chitral, NA-34 Lower Dir, NA-8 Charsadda, NA-9 Mardan, NA-15 Karak, NA-27 Lakki Marwat 59

Firgure-2

Source: Bureau of Statistics, Planning and Development Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

3.2.1 District Lakki Marwat (NA-27)

Lakki Marwat located in the Southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lakki Marwat converted into district on 1st July 1992 (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2017). It is situated between

District Dera Ismail Khan and District Bannu. District Karak is located in the North and

Tank in South, while Mianwali District (Punjab) lies to the East of Lakki Marwat while in the west it linked with Tribal belt of F.R Lakki. The total area of district Lakki Marwat is

3164 sq.km. Majority of the people belong to the Pakhtun tribe Marwat and a small number of Bhittani tribe is also living here. District Lakki Marwat consists of Tehsil Lakki and

Naurang and thirty-two (32) union councils. District Lakki Marwat represented by national assembly constituency NA-27 and three provincial assembly constituencies PK-74, PK-75 and PK-76. The table below shows the fluctuation of voters from one political party to another one in three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in NA-27 from it we can identify the floating voters (Bureau of Statistics, 2015).

Table No.26 NA- 27 Lakki Marwat Elections Results General elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 MMA 65938 2 PML-Q 41171 General Elections 2008 1 PML-Q 61303 2 MMA 52315 3 ANP 1597 4 10 Independent candidates 8332 General Elections 2013 1 JUI 84531 2 PML-N 56075 3 PTI 18168 4 ANP 2909 5 PKMAP 121 6 PML-Q 114 7 JUP-Niazi 45 8 13 Independents 7152 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

Table-26 presents the NA-27 three election results. In General Elections 2002, two candidates contested in the electoral race; one was from Mutahiddah Majlis-e-Amal‟s

(MMA) candidate Maulana Amanullah Khan and the other from Pakistan Muslim League-

Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) Anwar Saifullah Khan. After the polling, MMA‟s candidate won 61

the election with 24767 votes that were 60.4% of total votes, while the runner-up PML-Q candidate Anwar Saifullah Khan secured only 37.7% votes. During the election campaign, the MMA candidate used the slogan of Anti-Americanism and mobilized Madrassas

(Religious schools) students to win the seat on NA-27 Lakki Marwat (Naqvi, 2002). Unlike other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in Lakki Marwat all the provincial assembly seats won by PML-N candidates with a majority vote (General Elections 2002 Report Vol, II, 2002).

In General Elections 2008, the political scenario was completely different from the

2002 and therefore, MMA failed to retain its previous position in NA-27 Lakki Marwat.

PML-Q candidate Humayun Saifullah Khan with 8988 lead won the NA-27 Lakki Marwat seat while the runner-up was MMA candidate. Awami National Party (ANP) and ten independent candidates also participated in General Elections 2008 from Lakki Marwat

(General Elections 2008 Report Vol. II). In the provincial assembly seats, again voters‟ preferences were different from other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections

2008, the provincial assembly seats won by independent candidates, which show a significant ratio of floating voters in District Lakki Marwat. According to General Elections

2013 voters list of Lakki Marwat, the total number of registered voters was 330,274, out of which total male voters are 186,853 and female voters are 143,421 (FAFEN, 2015).

In General Elections 2013, the voting behaviour was again different from the other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; because Jamiat-Ulema-i-Islam-F group (JUI-F) leader

Maulana Fazlur Rahman won the NA-27 seat with 28456 lead followed by PML-N candidate Salim Saifullah Khan (ECP, 2013). However, all the provincial assembly seats

PK-74, PK-75 and PK-76 were won by JUI-F candidates. The analysis of the results of three

General Electionss (2002, 2008 and 2013) in district Lakki Marwat shows two dominant factors that played a key role in changing the voting behaviour of voters i.e. personality of the candidate and religion. The influence of the Saifullah family shows their personality vote in Lakki Marwat. This family has strong socio-economic hold in Lakki Marwat. The

second factor is the growing vote bank of religious political parties, particularly JUI-F. The

JUI-F influence in the district shows the inclination of the voters to on the basis of religion.19 The results of three general elections show an improvement in the vote bank of religious political parties in Lakki Marwat. It is assumed that both factors influenced the voters‟ decisions in election campaign. Therefore, the election results of provincial assembly constituencies were different from other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

(Newsweek, 2013; ECP, 2013). This change of political parties candidates in different elections show that there is a potential ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters.

3.2.2 District Karak (NA-15)

District Karak is situated in the south of district Kohat and the north side of Bannu and

Lakki Marwat on the main Indus Highway. It acquired the position of a district during

Governor Fazali Haq provincial government in 1982. District Karak is the single district in

Pakistan which is inhabited by only one tribe of Pakhtuns, the Khattaks. The total area of district Karak is 3372 sq. km. According to 1998 census, the population of district Karak was 734,765 persons. In General Elections 2013, the total number of registered voters are

350,236, while 195,512 are male voters and 154,724 are female voters. District Karak is composed of Karak, Banda Daud Shah and Takh-e-Nusrati Tehsils and twenty-three (23) union councils and one municipal committee (FAFEN, 2015). Karak is represented by national assembly seat NA-15 and two provincial assembly seats PK-40 and PK-41. District

Karak is an energy rich district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are oil, gas and coal reserves. According to a non-governmental organization SMEDA report, literacy rate in

Karak is on a third position after Wah and Islamabad (SMEDA, 2017). The residents of district Karak are politically and socially more active and have many political and social personalities. The political personalities are playing prominent role in the national and provincial politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

19 After delimitation of constituencies NA-27 changed into NA-34 Lakki Marwat. In 2018 election NA-34 seat won by MMA and provincial assembly two seats won by MMA and one seat by PTI candidate. 63

Table No.27 NA-15 Karak Elections Results General elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 MMA 31325 2 PPPP 17712 3 PML-N 13381 4 PTI 9972 5 ANP 9110 6 4 Independent candidates 10714 5 Other political parties 3430 General Elections 2008 1 MMA 28665 2 PML-N 22053 3 PML 21497 4 Independent 21002 5 ANP 14808 6 Others 2563 General Elections 2013 1 PTI 51278 2 PML-N 29290 3 MDM 29088 4 JUI-F 13215 5 ANP 7330 6 Other political parties 8486 7 10 independent candidates 19706 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

The voting behaviour in General Elections 2002 in district Karak was similar to other parts Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2001 United States and NATO forces attacked on

Afghanistan. MMA took advantage and used religion as a tool to secure majority votes in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, majority of the voters supported the MMA in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa at national and provincial constituencies in 2002 General Elections. MMA won the NA-15 Karak seat with a lead of 31325 votes while the runner up was PPPP contesting candidate. PML-N secured the third position and PTI chairman Imran Khan, who was for the first time contested election from this seat got 9972 votes. However, four (4) independent candidates obtained 10714 votes. On the other hand, in provincial assembly seat PK-40 Karak candidate Mian Nisar Gul was the first PTI candidate who won a seat in

General Elections 2002. While the PK-41 seat won by MMA candidate in Karak in 2002

General Elections (Election Report 2002 Volume-II, 2002). In General Elections 2008, NA-

15 Karak seat again won by MMA candidate with a lead of 6612 votes and the runner-up was PML-N candidate. The third position was secured by PML-Q and the fourth position 64

hold by an independent candidate Mian Nisar Gul. Mian Nisar Gul contested 2008 election as independent candidate and won PK-40 seat while PK-41 seat won by MMA candidate

Malik Qasim Khan Khattak.

In 2013 general elections voters list revised, total number of registered voters in district Karak is 315087, out of total 177493 are male voters and 137594 are female voters

(General Elections 2013 Report II). The results of 2013 General Elections at national assembly level were similar to other constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2013 election, PTI became a leading political party and won the majority votes in NA-15 Karak, followed by PML-N candidate. Moreover, ten (10) independent candidates also took part in election and secured 19706 votes collectively. The provincial assembly seat PK-40 won by

PTI candidate and PK-41 won by an independent candidate Malik Qasim Khan Khattak who was MMA candidate in previous election (Election Report 2013 Volume-II)20. After the comparison of the results of three recent elections in Karak, it seems that there is a potential ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters. On the other hand a large number of independent candidates contesting elections and they secured majority votes in different elections that are already discussed. The second thing is the role of personality of contesting candidate and his economic status. However, the scarcity of water is a critical problem in some of union councils in Karak. It is observed that contesting candidates‟ campaign in those union councils is focused on water problem. Moreover, those candidates who are economically strong they install water pumps and tube-wells to attract the voters support. Political parties manifestoes and program also improving party membership in district Karak.

3.3 CENTRAL GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE

The central geographical zone of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists of Peshawar and Mardan division. These two divisions comprise of Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Nowshera and

20 NA-15 which is now NA-34 own by PTI candidate Shahid Ahmad 65

Swabi districts. Peshawar is the administrative capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The central districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa hold the majority of the total population of province. Two constituencies NA-8 Charsadda-II and NA-9 Mardan-I randomly selected for data collection.

3.3.1 District Mardan (NA-9)

Mardan city is the second most populous city in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is the Headquarter of district Mardan. District Mardan has a very rich cultural heritage and history. The district contains the famous archaeological sites of Takht Bahi, Jamal Ghari and Shahbaz Garha.

The total area of district Mardan is 1,632 sq.km (630 sq mi) and total population is

2,369,000 in 2014 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2017). District Mardan consist of Tehsil

Mardan and Takht Bahi and seventy-four (74) union councils, two (2) Municipal

Committees and a cantonment area. District Mardan represented by NA-9, NA-10 and NA-

11 and eight provincial assembly seats PK-23, PK- 24, PK-25, PK-26, PK-27, PK-28, PK-

29 and PK-30. The total registered voters in District Mardan are 1,081,165. However,

630,564 are male voters and 450,601 are female voters (FAFEN, 2015).

Table No.28 NA-9 Mardan-I Elections Results General elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 MMA 54479 2 Independent 15376 3 PPPP 5077 4 PTI 1049 5 Independent candidates 1687 General Elections 2008 1 ANP 30770 2 JUI-S 24621 3 7 Independent Candidates 1663 General Elections 2013 1 ANP 44769 2 PTI 42068 3 PML-N 32090 4 JUI-F 14427 5 PPPP 7002 6 JI 4578 7 Other political parties 2158 8 2 independents 1298 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

Table-28 shows that in General Elections 2002 in NA-9 Mardan-I, the MMA candidate won with a massive lead of 39,103 votes. However, the runner-up was an independent candidate Abas Sarfaraz Khan who belongs to the nobility of Mardan. The third position was secured by PPPP candidate followed by PTI candidate. In General

Elections 2002, ANP did not contest election from NA-9. The turnout of voters in NA-9 was 35.9% in 2002 elections (General Elections 2002 Report Volume-II). However, in 2002 elections, MMA won PK-23, PK-24 and PK-25 seats in Mardan. In NA-9 and in provincial assembly, the MMA emerged a dominant political force.

In General Elections 2008 in NA-9 Mardan, Awami National Party candidate

Nawabzada Khawaja Muhammad Khan Hoti, alias Toti Khan won with a lead of 6149 votes that were lesser than general elections 2002 MMA candidate lead. The runner-up was the

JUI-S candidate who got 24,621 votes. Unlike General Elections 2002, in 2008 seven (7) independent candidates contest election from NA-9 Mardan-I, but they secured very small number of votes. In provincial assembly constituencies, all the three seats of PK-23, PK-24 and PK-25 were won by ANP candidates. The voters‟ preferences were influenced by ethnicity and party attachment in Mardan. In 2008 general elections turnout was 31.2% in

NA-9 Mardan (General Elections 2008 Report Volume-II).

In General Elections 2013, ex-Chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Amir Haider

Khan Hoti with a lead of 2701 votes won NA-9 Mardan-I seat. The runner-up was PTI candidate who secured 42,068 votes. During ANP government, Amir Haider Khan Hoti was the Chief Minster and did a lot of developmental projects (Infrastructure, Health, Education sector) in district Mardan but in 2013 election he faced very tough competition from the PTI candidate and won with a lead of 2000 votes only. Moreover, in NA-9 Mardan-I, interestingly PML-N candidate was on the third position followed by JUI-F, PPP, JI and other political parties‟ candidates respectively. Two independent candidates also contested election from NA-9 Mardan. While in provincial assembly PK-23 seat won by ANP

candidate and PK-24 and PK-25 seats won by PTI candidates. The turnout in General

Elections 2013 was 50.45%, which is more than the previous two general elections (General

Elections 2013 Report Volume-II).

The comparison of the three general elections results of NA-9 Mardan-I presented a different picture of the voters‟ movement from one political party to another one. In General

Elections 2002, MMA secured majority votes but in 2008 general elections, MMA did not retain its previous position and replaced by the nationalist political party ANP21. In 2013 general elections, ANP won the NA-9 seat with a very small lead and PTI candidate secured the second position. The voting behaviour in NA-9 also influenced by some personalities but political parties also has a constant vote bank. In NA-9 Mardan floating voters have lesser role. Maybe this is because of the socio-politico and economic development in district

Mardan. It is believed that Amir Haider Khan Hoti is main political character who motivates the voters and strengthened Awami National Party membership in Mardan.

3.3.2 District Charsadda (NA-8)

District Charsadda is a politically rich and fertile. Pushklavati (means Lotus flowers) was the old name of District Charsadda. Charsadda shares borders with District Mardan, District

Nowshehra and Malakand Agency. In the North West is Mohmand Agency22 and western border shares with Peshawar (Shah, 2013). Its total area is 996 sq/kms (384.6 sq. miles).

Total cultivable land in district Charsadda is 210,235 acres that is 86% of total irrigated land of Charsadda. The population of district Charsadda according to 1998 census report was 1.7 million. However, 18.9% of the total population belongs to the cities and remaining 81.1% residents are living in rural areas. Presently literacy rate is 43.09% in district Charsadda.

District Charsadda is sub-divided into Tehsil Tangi, Tehsil Charsadda and Tehsil Shabqadar and forty-nine Union Councils. District Charsadda is represented by two constituencies

(NA-7 and NA-8) for the National Assembly and six provincial Assembly constituencies

21 NA-9 which is now NA-21 won by ANP candidate Amir Haider Khan Hoti in 2018 elections 22 Now District Mohmand 68

(PK-17, PK-18, PK-19, PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22). The total registered voters in District

Charsadda are 760,273; however, 437,106 are male voters and 323,167 are female voters

(ECP, 2013).

Table No.29 NA-8 Charsadda-II Elections Results General Elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 PPP-S 42326 2 ANP 18346 3 Independent 1105 4 PMKP 962 General Elections 2008 1 PPP-S 30626 2 ANP 29951 3 MMA 12239 4 PML-N 3940 5 Independent 1306 General Elections 2013 1 QWP 37044 2 JUI 33836 3 PTI 30089 4 ANP 15953 5 JI 11034 6 PPPP 3848 7 Other political parties 5132 8 3 independent candidates 2205 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

Interestingly, in Table-29 we can see that in NA-8 Charsadda, Aftab Ahmad Khan

Sherpao who is brother of late Hayat Muhammad Khan Sherpao won election from different political platforms. Aftab Sherpao is considered as a political strategist in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. He was one of the most prominent political leaders of PPP but in 2002 election he left PPP and established his own political party known as Pakistan Peoples

Party-Sherpao group (PPP-S). In 2013 elections, he again renamed his political party as

Qawmi Watan Party (QWP). Aftab Sherpao is winning NA-8 seat in 2002, 2008 and 2013

General Elections consecutively. But a very interesting aspect found in three general elections, that the runner-up of Aftab Sherpao in each election is of different political party

candidates. In General Elections 2002, unlike other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the voters of NA-8 Charsadda-II elected Aftab Sherpao. He won with a lead of 23980 votes that was a huge mandate. The runner-up was ANP candidate and third position was secured by an independent candidate in 2002 elections. The fourth candidate was PMKP candidate who got only 962 votes. The National Assembly constituency NA-8 covers three provincial assembly seats PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22. Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and his son Sikandar

Hayat Khan also elected form PK-20 and PK-21 respectively. On the other hand, MMA candidate Maulana Musamir Shah was elected from PK-22 (General Elections 2002 Report,

Vol. II).

In 2008 General Elections, once again Aftab Sherpao won but the lead reduced to

23862 to 675 votes. It seems that the voters of PPP-S were split into other political parties

(ANP, JUI-S and PPP). However, in 2008 election ANP candidate remained on the second position like the previous election. MMA secured third position in 2008 General Elections in NA-8 Charsadda-II. Moreover, in 2008 general elections all the provincial assembly seats

(PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22) won by the PPP-Sherpao candidates (General Elections 2008

Report, Vol. II).

Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao renamed his political party from PPP-S to Qawmi

Watan Party (QWP) on October 17, 2012.23 In General Elections 2013, again Aftab Sherpao won the NA-8 Charsadda-II seat with a lead 3028 votes. Nonetheless, the second position secured by JUI-F candidate while third and fourth positions acquired by PTI and ANP candidates respectively. In 2013 elections, ANP was replaced by JUI-F and PTI and at the first time it secured that much votes in the history of NA-8 Charsadda-II. Apart from that in

General Elections 2013, two candidates were elected from QWP on PK-20 and PK-21 and

23 The earlier name of Qawmi Watan Party was Pakistan Peoples Party-Sherpao group. The name of the party was changed on 17th October, 2012. Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao was appointed the head of the party. It is also called Pakhtun neo-nationalist political party. During 2013 elections, QWP won one MNA seat and ten MPAs seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 70

Muhammad Arif from PTI won PK-22 provincial seat. (General Elections 2013 Report Vol,

II).

The results of three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) demonstrated that in NA-8, like other political and social determinants personality of candidate also have a dominant factor to influence voters‟ preferences. The estimation (in Table-4) of different elections results provide a reflection in which Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao moving from one political party to another one but his vote bank remain comparatively higher than other candidates. It indicates the personal influence of Sherpao that is pulling the voters of NA-8 Charsadda-II.

The second interesting thing in NA-8 is the increasing vote bank of religious political parties.

In NA-8 Charsadda-II, the voting behaviour is influenced by four determinants i.e., the personality of the candidate, religion, performance and party affiliation. Another important aspect is the shift of floating voters who are sometimes joining one political party and in the next elections turn to other political party. Regardless of that, in 2002 election the voter turnout was 29.6% improved 32.3% in 2008 elections. However, in General

Elections 2013, the turnout again improved to 43.9%. In General Elections 2002, Aftab

Sherpao bagged 65.7% of the total polled votes of NA-8 Charsadda-II; however in 2008 got

38.3% of total polled votes. The vote bank of Aftab Sherpao (QWP) reduced to 25.8% in

2013 elections. Apart from that ANP gained 28.5% of the total polled votes in 2002 elections.

However, ANP share ascended to 37.5% in 2008. Whereas, in 2013 elections, ANP voters support further reduced to 11.1% of the total polled votes in NA-8. Nevertheless, in NA-8

Charsadda-II, MMA/JUI candidate did not contest the 2002 polls, but in 2008 MMA secured 15.3% votes. In General Elections 2013, in NA-8 the vote bank of JUI grew up to

23.5% votes. The PTI also emerged as a strong competitor in NA-8 with a share of 20.9% of the total polled votes (2013 Election of Pakistan Report II, 2013). The General Elections

2013 results make it hard to predict the future party trend in NA-8. The ruling QWP in NA-

8 was losing its previous position and JUI-F emerged a strong contender in 2013 elections.

Apart from that, PTI also got a significant share in the votes polled in General Elections

2013.24 ANP was a strong political party in NA-8 loses its hold and the voters may be shifted to other political parties in 2013 elections.

3.4 NORTHERN GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE

The Northern geographical region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists of Malakand, Swat,

Upper and Lower Dir, Kohistan, Chitral and Shangla Districts. Because of the same geographical landscape Hazar division is also added in northern geographical regions. In this region, District Chitral and Lower Dir are randomly selected for data collection.

3.4.1 District Chitral (NA-32)

Chitral is bordered in the east with Gilgit-Baltistan, Swat valley located in the south-east,

China and the Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan linked on the north and north-east, while in the west Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan are located. In the south of Chitral is situated the Upper Dir district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. District Chitral is divided into thirty-five small valleys. Kalash valleys, Garam Chashma, Shishi Koh, Mastuj, Laspur,

Yarkhun, Tor Khow and Mor Khow are most important and full of natural beauty (Baloch,

2016). Its total area is 14,850 Square Kilometres. According to 1998, the population of

Chitral was 318,689.

District Chitral consists of four tehsils, Drosh, Mastuj, Tor Khow and Mor Khow and twenty-four Union Councils. Chitral was an independent princely state till 1947. When

Pakistan came into being, the state of Chitral was the first among the princely states to declare accession to Pakistan. In the year 1969, Chitral was merged into the Malakand division as a settled district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. District Chitral represented NA-32 national assembly and PK-89 and PK-90 provincial assembly seats (ECP, 2017).

24 NA-8 which is now NA-23 won by PTI candidate Malik Anwar Taj with majority votes 72

Table No. 30 NA-32 Chitral Elections Results General elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 MMA 36130 2 PML-Q 23907 3 PPPP 20862 4 PTI 516 General Elections 2008 1 PML-Q 33278 2 Independent 31120 3 PPPP 18516 4 MMA 2759 5 Independent 695 General Elections 2013 1 APML 30115 2 PTI 24835 3 JI 21278 4 PPPP 20040 5 JUI-F 16004 6 ANP 6776 7 QWP 3960 8 PML-N 2478 9 Independent 941 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

In 2002 general elections, Abdul Akbar Khan Chitrali (in 2018 election again he won the Chitral National Assembly seat) who is basically from Jamaat-i-Islami contested election on MMA ticket and acquired 36130 votes. The runner-up was PML-Q candidate and third position secured by PPPP candidate. The MMA candidate won with 12,223 lead.

In provincial assembly seats like other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in Chitral, both seats were won by MMA candidates. The anti-Americanism and religiosity were the main determinants of voting behaviour (Khan, 2011).

After the announcement of 2008 election by Election Commission of Pakistan, various political parties and independent candidates who wanted to contest election started campaigns. Therefore, many candidates (party candidates and independent candidates) and their supporters started canvassing by explaining their party manifesto and objectives to gain public support in the election. In General Elections 2008, the registered voters in

Chitral were 197,022, which includes 107,804 male registered voters, and 89,218 female registered voters. In 2008 five (5) candidates contest election from NA-32 (now NA-1)

Chitral. Out of five candidates three candidates contested on party tickets while other two were independent candidates (General Elections 2008 Report Volume-II).

Nonetheless, the provincial assembly constituency PK-89 was composed of fourteen union councils. Out of 115,531 registered voters 64,795 male registered voters and 50,736 female. In 2008 elections, seven (7) candidates contested for PK-89 Provincial Assembly seat but only five (5) candidates contested on party ticked and two (2) were independent candidates. However, in PK-90, that composed of ten (10) union councils, where, out of

81491 registered voters 43,009 were male and 38,482 female registered voters. Moreover, in PK-90, four (4) candidates were contesting the 2008 elections. In spite to that, in 2008 elections, candidate of Pakistan Muslim league Qaid-e-Azam group (PML-Q) won the

National Assembly NA-32 seat with a lead of 2158 votes. Although, Pakistan people party candidate Saleem Khan secured the provincial Assembly seat from PK-89 and PK-90 won by PML-Q candidate. Jamaat-e-Islami, PTI, PKMAP and APDM boycotted general elections 2008.

In district Chitral in 2008 election, Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) had been divided into two groups on the issue on the allocation of tickets. The district organization of PPPP had given party ticket to Shahzada Ghulam Muhyuddin while some of the party activists were against this decision. On the other hand, Jamaat-e-Islami boycotted the election that provided an opportunity to PML-Q candidate to win the election. In

General Elections 2013, the number of registered voters rose to 206,910. Among total registered voters, 120,530 were male voters and 86,380 female voters.

In 2013, eight (8) candidates were contesting on different political parties‟ tickets and remaining two (2) candidates were independent. There was a nick to nick competition of All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) candidate with PTI candidate. As a result, APML candidate won with a lead of 5280 votes (FAFEN, 2015)25. PTI candidate secured the

25 NA-32 which is now NA-1 Chitral won by MMA candidate Abdul Akbar Chitrali in 2018 election 74

second position and third one by JI candidate. However, in provincial assembly, there was also very tough competition among different political parties. According to the official announcement of results by Election Commission of Pakistan, Mr. Saleem Khan the candidate of Pakistan People Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) remains successful for the PK-

89 (Chitral-I) securing 11,310 votes and Mr. Khalid Pervaiz the candidate of All Pakistan

Muslim League (APML) runner-up who scored 10,234 votes (General Elections 2013

Report. Vol. II). Even though, in Upper Chitral, PK-90 consists of ten (10) union councils and the total number of registered voters were 88,865. There were nine (9) contesting candidates from different political Parties and the remaining five (5) were independent. Mr.

Ghulam Muhammad, the APML candidate won by 10691 votes and PPPP candidate remained second who secured 10,620 votes. On the other hand, Ghulam Muhammad who contested from APML was a Sunni candidate and the one Shahzada who contested for NA seat from APML was also Sunni. The only factor played a key role in the victory of Ghulam

Muhammad was that he belongs to Zondre Qawm and Ismailis sect. Therefore, the Zondre

Qawm supported him in election. Secondly, he is also very rich and can easily influence the voter‟s behaviour, by spending a lot on gift distribution among the constituency people and other financial support. Moreover, people voted for APML a political party of ex-president

Musharraf because of the construction of Lowari Tunnel (Mashriq, June 10th 2013).26

3.4.2 District Lower Dir (NA-34)

District Lower Dir is situated in the North-Western part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and is spread over an area of 1583 Square Kilometres (Bureau of Statistics, 2015). Apart from that small area in the South-West of district Lower Dir has rugged mountainous landscape. District Lower Dir eastern border is linked with Swat and western border with

Afghanistan, North and North-West border with Upper Dir and Chitral and Southern border

26 Sectarian factor is an also an important determinant to influence voters preferences in District Chitral in elections. 75

linked with Malakand and Bajaur Agency. In 1947, Dir state was ruled by Nawab Shah

Jehan Khan. It was merged in Pakistan in 1969 and later on declared a district in 1970. In

1996 the state of Dir was divided into two districts Upper Dir and Lower Dir. The Lower

Dir is administratively subdivided into Timergara and Samar Bagh Tehsils including thirty- seven (37) union councils. The district is represented four provincial assembly members

(MPAs) and one in the national assembly. The national assembly seat allocated for lower

Dir is NA-34 (now divided into NA-6 and NA-7) and provincial assembly seats are PK-94,

PK-95, PK-96 and PK-97 (ECP, 2013). According to 2013 voters list, the total registered voters in Lower Dir are 574,109. However, 338,497 are male voters and 235,612 are female voters (FAFEN, 2017).

Table No.31 NA-34 Lower Dir Elections Results General elections 2002 Political Party Obtained votes 1 MMA 53799 2 ANP 34078 3 PTI 1136 5 PML-Q 1123 6 Independent candidate 313 5 PML-N 224 General Elections 2008 1 PPPP 38068 2 ANP 24480 3 MMA 11449 4 PPP-S 8702 5 PML-N 3366 6 2 Independent Candidates 1386 General Elections 2013 1 JI 49475 2 PTI 45066 3 JUI 22552 4 ANP 8959 5 QWP 7206 6 PPPP 6275 7 Other political parties 6864 8 5 Independent candidates 2934 Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports

In General Elections 2002, there were two main contenders MMA and ANP in

Lower Dir and the winner candidate and the runner-up secured nearly 95% of the total polled votes in NA-34. The MMA candidate won with a lead of 19,721 votes and the runner-up was ANP candidate. Despite that, all the provincial assembly seats were also won by MMA candidates. Regardless of that, in General Elections 2008, PPPP candidate won with a lead of 13,588 votes and the runner-up was ANP candidate and the third position secured by PTI candidate. Jamaat-i-Islami as a strong political party of the area boycotted the elections that provided an opportunity to other political parties to secure more votes of

NA-34. However, the main contest was still between the first two candidates who collectively received nearly 70% of the votes. Moreover, in 2008 elections, out of four provincial assembly seats three (3) seats won by PPPP and one (1) by ANP in Lower Dir.

In General Elections 2013, JI candidate won the national assembly seat with a lead of 4409 votes followed by PTI candidate and third position secured by JUI-S candidate. The voters splitting up into different political parties forecast that the next election result may be different from the 2013 (FAFEN, 2017)27. The provincial assembly seats PK-94, PK-95 and

PK-96 won by the JI candidates and PK-97 won by the QWP candidate. According to the

Election Commission of Pakistan's results, the turnout in NA-34 was 28.3% in General

Elections 2002, which dropped down to 24.3% in 2008 general elections. However, in

General Elections 2013, turnout of NA-34 raised to 30.7% which was 6.4% greater than

2008 elections (ECP, 2017).

In General Elections 2002, there were two contesting candidates in the polls, one was JI Amir Qazi Hussain Ahmed who contested under the banner of MMA and secured fifty-eight percent (58%) votes. The leadership of JI believed that Qazi Hussain Ahmad can easily win the NA-34 Lower Dir seat rather than their home town Nowshehra, because in

NA-34 JI had a huge vote bank. Even though, in 2002 elections, runner-up was Muhammad

27 NA-34 Lower Dir is divided into NA-6 and NA-7. In 2018 election, NA-6 and NA-7 National Assembly seats won by PTI candidates in Lower Dir. 77

Ayub Khan of the ANP who managed to get 36.7% votes. Moreover, other major parties such as PTI, PML and PML-N received comparatively nominal shares of the polled votes.

In General Elections 2008, MMA lost a huge vote bank because JI boycotted the election and PPPP candidate won NA-34 and secured 42.2% votes while ANP's Ayub Khan was runner-up with 27.1% votes and MMA managed to get only 12.7% of the total polled votes.

In General Elections 2013, the JI candidate won NA-34 seat with 32% of the total polled votes. However, PTI, which had performed poorly in 2002 General Elections, also managed to get 29% votes, while ANP candidate dropped down to 6% of votes. This voting trend indicates a slight inclination of voters towards religious parties rather than secular political parties. It is believed that JI has some stable vote bank while the rest of voters are moving from one political party to another, that affect the results of NA-34 and provincial assembly seats in Lower Dir (FAFEN, 2017).

3.5 FLUCTUATIONS IN TURNOUT

According to Free and Fair Elections Network (FAFEN) report, out of thirty-one (31) predominantly rural constituencies of National Assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, twelve

(12) witnessed an increase of 10.1% to 15% in their turnout in General Elections 2013 in comparison with their average turnout of 2002 and 2008 elections. Among these one of the two predominantly urban constituencies‟ turnouts moves up to 15.1% to 20% and another observed over 20% increase vis-à-vis its average turnout of 2002 and 2008 general elections. The remaining two constituencies, one semi-urban and another majority rural experienced 10.1% to 15% increase in respect of their average of 2002 and 2008 general elections. In contrast to provincial and national trends, the predominantly rural areas of NA-

26 registered a decrease of 0.6% in the turnout vis-à-vis its 2002 and 2008 average of 41.2%

(FAFEN, 2017). It is assumed that where the ratio of party voters is little the ratio of turnout is also low. Party voters and turnout ratio are directly proportion to each other. If one increases the next one also increases. 78

3.6 VOTE BANK OF POLITICAL PARTIES

There has been up and down in the vote bank of different political parties in these elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The results of three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) depict that in each general elections, a different political party came into power with majority votes in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Likewise in General Elections 2002, MMA became the most popular political power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 42% of the total polled votes, while in General

Elections 2008 PPP and ANP attracted majority voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the last

General Elections 2013, PTI a very new political force came into power with majority votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This part, of the chapter explores the transformation of vote bank from one political party to another one in each General Election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Table No. 32 Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2002 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Political Parties/ Candidates Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats MMA 1,409,344 42% 29 Independent candidates 561,417 17% 12 PML-Q 430,009 13% 4 PPP 300,683 9% -- ANP 283,112 8% -- PML-N 154,835 5% -- PPP-S 98,145 3% 2 PTI 39,127 1% -- National Allaince 24,548 1% -- Pakistan Awami Tehreek 9,812 0.29% -- PML-Jinnah 5,956 0.18% -- Qaumi Jamhoori Party 4,687 0.14% -- PML-Z 3,523 0.11% -- Hazara Qaumi Mahaz 3,384 0.1% -- Pakistan Awami Party 2,592 0.08% -- Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami 2,327 0.07% -- Party Pak Watan party 1,563 0.05% -- Pakistan Mazdoor Kisan Party 962 0.03% -- MQM 603 0.02% -- Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013.

Haroon K. Ullah in his study argued that during election campaign, the religious political parties‟ candidates discuss religiously inspired issues to gain the support of

common voters (Ullah, 2014:75-76). Likewise, demand and implementation of Sharia laws etc. is commonly used in speeches during election campaign. Sometimes, religion contributes in the polarization of public opinion on different political issues (Fiorina, 2005).

In General Elections 2002 the group of six religio-political parties united in the shape of

MMA for a common cause in the name of Sharia Law and Islamic System. MMA candidates‟ campaign was against the west and implementation of Sharia Law in Pakistan.

The MMA‟s election campaign slogan was, “to take away power from the pro-American and secular forces and establish a true Islamic system in the country”. The alliance demonstrates itself as the only alternative against the so-called corrupt political parties, secular and Pro-western rulers such as President General Musharraf and other political parties. The leadership of MMA believed that the prevailing political situation in the region provides them with the best opportunity to attract a far greater number of votes than in the previous elections, particularly in areas such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the people were religious and had sympathies with Afghan brothers than other provinces of Pakistan.

Therefore, in election campaign speeches, MMA leadership stressed on the people that only the “forces of Islam” MMA can protect the country from the disaster of un-Islamic policies of other (secular and ethnic) political parties. The MMA leadership promised to the voters to expel US forces from the region and also wanted to introduce the Islamic system of government. During the election campaign, MMA also warned the Americans to stop interfering in the internal affairs of Muslim countries and openly expressed sympathy for the former Taliban leader (Mulla Umar) of Afghanistan who were defeated and ousted by

US and NATO forces. It was the first time in the electoral history of Pakistan that religious political parties got 42% of total polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While, independent candidates secured the second position with 17% of total polled votes and PML-Q candidates got 13% of total votes. The so called secular political Pakistan Peoples Party and

Awami National Party bagged 9% and 8% votes respectively. However, PML-N and PPP-

Sherpao group received 5% and 3% ballots and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and National

Alliance got 1% votes each, while the rest of political parties could not show any prominent position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Rauf and Ayaz, 2011).

Table No. 33 Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2008 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Political Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats Parties/Candidates Independent candidates 922,878 24% 13 PPPP 677,117 17% 9 ANP 612,239 16% 10 PML-Q 541,714 14% 5 MMA 479,712 12% 4 PML-N 462,274 12% 4 PPP-S 140,988 4% 1 Pakistan Awami Party 9,248 0.5% -- Pakistan Citizen Movement 5,441 0.14% -- MQM 5,095 0.13% -- Pakistan Bachao Tehreek 2,744 0.07% -- Awami Himayat Tehreek 1,979 0.05% -- Pakistan Pakistan Muhafiz Party 1,434 0.04% -- PPP-shaheed Bhutto 232 0.01% -- Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

As a result of Benazir Bhutto assassination on 27th December 2007 the elections were rescheduled form 8th January to 18th February 2008 (Nelson, 2009). During that time the political situation became more turbulent in the whole country. The incident of

Benazir‟s death won sympathies of voters to PPP candidates all over the country. As a result, the PPP bagged the largest mandate in General Elections 2008 in the whole country.

In General Elections 2008, there was a complete shift in the vote bank of different political parties of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (see Table-33). Unlike the General Elections 2002, the voting behaviour of the voters mould on 180o degree from religious political parties towards secular and ethic political parties that were PPP and ANP that came forward as major political parties of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Although, PPP and ANP boost up because of the dismemberment of MMA into individual political parties and JI that was a major force in

MMA boycotted the General Elections 2008. However, PTI and PKMAP also boycotted from the election that provide space to ANP and PPP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Shah, 2013).

Interestingly, in General Elections 2008, the independent candidates secured 24% of the total polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A major portion of vote bank from political parties shifted to the independent candidates in 2008. However, the Pakistan Peoples‟ Party vote bank in 2008 remained same in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa like the General Elections 2002.

On the other hand, ANP secured 16% votes that were doubled of the 2002 election in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, PML-Q vote bank increased one percent (1%) from the previous general elections, while MMA vote bank went down to the lowest level that was

12% only. In general elections 2008, MMA vote bank reduced to one third (1/3) of the previous General Elections. Pakistan Muslim League vote bank improved from 5% to 12% and PPP-Sherpao voters also increased from 3% to 4%. The rest of the minor political parties could not secure a major share in vote bank in 2008 elections in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2008 we can see conversion of voters from one extreme that was an alliance of religious political parties to another extreme of secular political parties i.e., ANP and PPP (Gallup, 2013).

Table No.34 Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Political Parties/ Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats Candidates PTI 1,573,124 27% 17 JUI-F/MMA 954,256 16% 6 PML-N 891,399 15% 5 Independents 763,527 13% 7 ANP 413,321 7% 1 JI 404,127 7% 3 PPP 392,191 7% 1 All others 286,607 5% 2 JUI others 55,212 1% 1 PML Others 35,193 1% 1 PML-Q 10,199 0.18% -- MQM 6,707 0.12% -- PPP others 1,073 0.02% -- Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013

After the completion of ANP tenure, new election was scheduled on 11th May 2013.

As a result of this election, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) bagged majority (seventeen (17) 82

in National Assembly and sixty-one (61) seats in Provincial Assembly of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. During the elections, Awami National Party was not able to run its campaign freely because of threats from the militants. As a result of ANP poor election campaign provides space for Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, ANP and PPP could not retain its previous position; therefore, the main beneficiaries were PTI and PML-N in 2013 election. On the other hand, Jamaat-i-Islami, which boycotted the previous 2008 elections, won seats in Provincial Assembly as well as in National Assembly. Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao‟s Qawmi Watan Party, which contested as PPP-S in 2008 General Elections retain its position and won five (5) and Awami

Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) won two (2) seats. Independents, which played a decisive role in the formation of governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bagged ten (10) to eleven

(11) seats (DAWN, 2013). Moreover, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf that secured only 1% votes in General Elections 2002 and boycotted 2008 general elections bagged 27% votes General

Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Apart from that, MMA lead by JUI-F retained its position and secured 16% of total polled votes while PML-N voters‟ support also enhanced from 12% to 15% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Independent candidates vote bank reduced from

24% to 13% and ANP also faced a set back from 16% to 7% votes. The position of PPP also slides down from 17% to 7% votes and JI vote bank grow up to 7% in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. The rest of contested political parties could not get a prominent voters support in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Gallup, 2013).

Summary

The comparison of three general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) results presents the detail of voters support to different political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The most important feature identifies is the changing ratio of voters support to political parties in different elections. In general elections 2002, MMA secured the majority votes in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa followed by Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid Group. It is considered that the

USA and its Allies attack on Afghanistan played a great role in MMA victory. In General

Elections 2008, voters completely divert to ANP and PPP that are secularist-cum-nationalist political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, ANP won majority votes followed by PPP, while

MMA could not retain its previous position. In General Elections 2013, ANP faced a setback and Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf (PTI) won majority votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Secondly, the ratio of independent candidates and their vote bank growing in the three recent general elections that presenting the non-partisan voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In

General Elections 2002, independent candidates secured the second largest vote bank 17% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections, 2008 independent candidates received the highest vote bank with (24%) of total votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the last General

Elections 2013, the independent candidates' vote bank reduced to the fourth position in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study identified different socio-political and economic determinants that mould the voters‟ preferences in elections. It is assumed that these determinants are shaping partisan and floating voters. This identified a significant ratio of floating voters and party loyal voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, the floating voters are playing a key role in changing the elections results (national and provincial assembly constituencies) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

CHAPTER – 4 IDENTIFICATION OF FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013

4.1 INTRODUCTION

Who are floating voters? Why floating voters are changing their loyalties from one political party to another political party? How we can identify a floating voter? To address these questions we need to understand the meaning of the term floating voter. Collins Dictionary defined floating voters as, “Those voters who are not firm supporter of any political party, and whose vote in an election is difficult to predict”. Duadt (1961) believed that floating voters move from one political party to another political party in different elections. It is assumed that floating voters‟ phenomenon has a paramount importance in the field of elections study and voting behaviour.

John Zaller (2013) in his research work argued that poorly informed electorate more likely to shift back and forth between the parties during election campaigns. He also identified that “Ideological Innocence” among the voters, provides the impression that they cast their ballots irregularly to different parties. Therefore those voters who are politically less aware and „ideological innocence‟, they are not loyal to a single political party but their loyalties are changing in each election. The floating voters are also called „know-nothing voters‟ in other research studies (Zaller, 2013; Claassen, 2007; Carmines and Stimson,

1989; Rapoport and Stone, 1994).

The political system of Pakistan based on multi-party system. Political parties are categorized into ethnic, nationalist and religious clusters. Ethnic and nationalist clusters consist of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli

Awami Party (PKMP), Muthahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), Pakistan Muslim League-

Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). While religious political parties are

Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Sami ul Haq (JUI-S), Jamaat-i-

Islami Pakistan (JIP), Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan-Noorani (JUP), Pakistan Awami Tehreek

(PAT) etc. The voters have multiple choices in elections (Usman and Ashghar, 1988). It is on his/her behalf that which political party he/she wanted to switch on or switch off. If a voter has religious tendencies he/she want to join religious political party. Some of the voters are confused to join which religious political party, because all these religious political parties have very little differences in their manifesto, program, agenda and ideology. Therefore, in such political scenario the voters motivated towards the personality rather than political party because political parties have similar ideologies only leadership is different.

On the other hand, in multi-party political system the independent candidates also secure a large number of votes because of their personal influence in their contesting constituencies. It is a common practice in Pakistan that a large number of candidates contest election independently. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a significant number of independent candidates contest elections. Therefore, in general elections 2002 independent candidates secured the second largest polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While in general elections

2008 the independent candidates bagged the largest polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

However, in general elections 2013 the independent candidates‟ political support drops down to forth position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Gallup, 2013). It demonstrates that personality politics is a very important determinant of electoral politics. In Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa some important political personalities are Asfandiyar Wali Khan and Aftab

Ahmad Khan Sherpao of Charsadda, Mian Nisar Gul of Karak, Maulan Qasim, Mualana

Fazlur Rehman, Saifullah Brothers of Lakki Marwat etc. The charisma and personal influence of these political figures has more weight than a political party in their respective constituencies.

During election campaign local and international issues in which religion is exploited by the religious political parties (Shah et al, 2016; Trent and Friedenberg, 2004;

Dorussen and Taylor, 2001; Cramines and Stimson, 1980) and the ethno-nationalist political parties are trying to give it a nationalist and ethnic colour in election campaign and other political activities. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa all political parties using different strategies to pull the voters during election campaign. It is also considered that the ratio of „retrospective voters‟ in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is declining and they are trying to test new political party in the next elections likewise Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is a test case. Moreover, in different elections various political parties joined the alliance with such political parties that are contradictory to each other‟s ideology. As a result of those alliances, a large number of ideological voters switch to other political parties. In General Elections 2013, JUI-F, ANP and PPP joined hands against the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This alliance was not tolerable to the ideological voters. Therefore, some of the ideological voters left their respective political parties.

In United States, Democrats and Republicans political parties are contesting elections. The voters in US are either to join Democrats or Republican Party. Therefore a voter has limited choice of two political parties only, either to accept party „A‟ or „B‟. It is assumed that the ratio of floating voters in bi-party political system is nominal while in multi-party system it may be larger.

On the other hand, various researchers argued that the level of „political sophistication‟ is also an important factor to explain constancy and change in voters‟ preferences in elections. There are two different opinions about the influence of political sophistication on electoral volatility. One opinion is proposing that political sophistication increasing electoral volatility while the other opinion is against it. The proponents of

Columbian School argued that electoral volatility is higher among those voters who had a low level of political awareness (Berelson et al., 1963; Lazarsfeld et al., 1968). That assumption was proved in the 1940s and 1950s studies which identified a large number of politically less aware voters switch from one party to another.

Since 1980s, many political scientists challenged the previous traditional floating voter theory (that was presented by Colombian School) and introduced a new floating voter theory (Dalton, 2013; Dalton et al., 2000; Habert & Lancelot, 1988). Dalton introduced

„Cognitive Mobilization Theory‟ which suggests that electoral volatility is larger among politically aware and sophisticated voters. The proponents of the „Cognitive Mobilization

Theory‟ believed that the appearance of a politically sophisticated voter can be seen as a result of the process of cognitive mobilization. The cognitive mobilization process covers two distinct aspects: firstly, the rising education ratio that increases voters‟ cognitive skills, and secondly, technological development and access political information. Those voters who possess the necessary political skills of political sophistication they can independently make their electoral choices. Dalton et al. (2000) argued that less politically aware voters would depend on their “long-term” party affiliation. While politically aware voters are more susceptible to “short-term” forces such as personality, issues, and performance when choosing what party to vote for. Therefore, it is believed that highly political sophisticated voters‟ electoral volatility and instability is greater than less politically sophisticated (Habert

& Lancelot, 1988, Dalton, 1984; Dalton et al., 2000, Dalton, 2007, 2013).

The Cognitive Mobilization Theory (CMT) puts forward a rational voting choice model. This model demonstrated that issues and performance influence the voter‟s choice.

On the other hand, the proponents of the CMT argued that political awareness and sophistication strengthen party loyal voters (Tiberj, 2015; Albright, 2009; Muxel, 2009).

These findings were strongly supporting the traditional floating voter hypothesis.

Converse (1962) rejected Colombian School‟s traditional model and Dalton‟s

Cognitive Mobilization Theory of floating voter. Converse (1962) argued that moderate voters are more volatile than highly politically aware and less political aware voters.

Whereas, Converse (1962), Dassonneville & Dejaeghere (2014), Kuhn (2009), Lachat

(2007) and Van Der Meer et al. (2015) studies in the field of electoral studies have different

results regarding what effect political awareness may have on strong party preferences and electoral volatility.

Political disaffection is also a significant factor that influences instability in partisans. It is assumed that the political dissatisfaction and floating voters have a strong relationship. Zelle (1995) put forward the concept of „frustrated floating voter model‟. This model demonstrates the preservation of a strong relationship between voter and political party. The good performance of a political party strengthens its membership. But frustration started among the supports against a political party when it failed to achieve its targets and failed to perform in a better way (Zelle, 1995). Political disaffection stirred the frustrated voter preferences in the next election. Consequently, frustrated voters express dissatisfaction and switch to other political parties (Zelle, 1995:332). Zelle study also figures out, that unstable voters‟ distrust on democracy and political parties. Dalton and

Weldon (2005) argued that distrust in parties is the main reason of electoral volatility.

Muxel (2009) argued that political satisfaction plays the role of catalyst in party loyalty. The study highlighted the impact of political satisfaction on electoral volatility. On the other hand, Soerlund (2008) presented the relationship between party performance and party affiliation. He argued that after the evaluation of party performance a voter decides to remain a member of the same political party or switch to another political party. The poor performance of a political party fails to secure the support of the retrospective voters in succeeding election. Sorderlund challenged Zelle (1995) theory of „frustrated voters‟ in which they connected political frustration with electoral volatility. Dassonneville, Blais, and

Dejaeghere (2015) pointed out that politically frustrated voters change their political affiliations when they are dissatisfied from the party they voted.

Crow (2005) and Van Der Meer et al. (2015) studies identified the influence of ideology on electoral volatility. They classified ideological voters into radical and moderate.

Radical ideological voters are extremists. Van Der Meer et al. (2015) argue that ideological

extremeness is a strong bond between voter and political party. In this case, the probability

of party switching for a voter is unusual in the next election. On the other hand, moderate

ideological voters can easily change their political parties in each election. Moderate voters

are unstable rather than radical voters. Willocq (2016) argues that in multi-party systems

ideologically moderate voters have more opportunity to switch new political parties. In

multi-party system have the possibility of several political parties of the same ideological

background. Therefore, moderate voters have many political choices in coming elections.

On the basis of the previous studies researcher has been asked different questions

from the respondents to identify the floating voters. The researcher asked from the

respondents that which political party they supported in 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections?

From these questions we can identify the percentage of voters who is constantly supporting

a political party. As well as, we can see variation in the political parties‟ voters to compare

the data of three elections.

4.2 POLITICAL PARTIES SUPPORT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS

The respondents support to different political parties in three elections (2002, 2008 and

2013) shows in Table-35. The data shows that each political party position in each election.

Among the respondents many have different choices in each election. Therefore, the vote

bank of each political party is different from the other one. The survey results show each

political party position in each election.

Table No. 35 Political MMA ANP PML- PPP- JI JUI-F PTI PPP Indp Don‟t Parties N S/QW Remembe P r 2002 5.20% 3.50 3.10% 1.30% 3.90% 5.10% 0.90% 5.30% 9.20 11.10% % % 2008 1.30% 8.60 4.90% 2.80% 0.00% 2.80% 0.00% 10.60 8.40 20.90% % % % 2013 0.00% 7% 9.30% 4.50% 12.20 11.40 26.50 7.70% 5% 3.40% % % % Source: Field data

During survey three questions were asked regarding 2002, 2008 and 2013 General

Elections from the respondents that which political party you voted? The data in Table-35 is

presenting fluctuations of the different political parties‟ positions in three general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2002, MMA got support of 5.2% vote among the respondents but in General Elections 2008, MMA position went down to 1.3% while in

General Elections 2013 MMA is disintegrated into individual political parties. Therefore, the vote bank of MMA distributed to each political party especially in JUI-F, JI. Among the total respondents 3.5% voted to ANP in General Elections 2002, ratio increased to 8.6% in

General Elections 2008 and 7% in General Elections 2013. However, PML-N got 3.1% support in 2002, 4.9% in 2008 and 9.3% in General Elections 2013. QWP secured 1.3% support in 2002, 2.8% in 2008 and 4.5% in General Elections 2013. The PPP support in

2002 was 5.3%, while in 2008 it reached to 10.6% and in General Elections 2013 it dropped down to 7.7%. Moreover, among the total respondents only 0.9% respondents voted to PTI in 2002, in General Elections 2008 PTI boycotted the elections and in 2013 General

Elections 26.5% respondents voted to PTI. Although, the independent candidates have 9.2% support in General Elections 2002, 8.4% support in 2008 and 5% in General Elections 2013

(see Table-36).

Table No. 36 Paired Samples Test Paired Differences t df Sig. (2- General Elections Mean Std. Std. 95% Confidence tailed) Deviati Error Interval of the on Mean Difference Lower Upper Pair 2002 0.23173 4.7097 0.1406 -.04415 .50761 1.648 1121 0.100 1 VS.2008 5 1 Pair 2008 VS. 2.67112E 4.5945 0.1371 2.40200 2.94025 1.947E1 1121 0.000 2 2013 0 0 6 Pair 2013 VS. - 4.4753 0.1336 -3.16500 -2.64070 - 1121 0.000 3 2002 2.90285E 7 1 2.173E1 0 Source: Field data

A Paired Samples test applied to understand the differences in each pair of elections. In first pair the value of T=1.68 with p-value=0.100> than 0.05 which shows insignificant difference between general elections 2002 and 2008. However in the second

pair T=19.47 with p-value=0.0001< than 0.05 which shows significant difference between

2008 and 2013 general elections. And in the last pair T=-21.73 with p-value=0.0001< than

0.05 shows a significant difference between 2013 and 2002 general elections. The data shows a significant difference among the respondents about each election that considers floating voters.

4.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOATING VOTERS

There are different variables through which we can measure the floating voters. Like, late vote decision, political awareness, satisfaction on previous vote decision and issue voting.

4.3.1 Late Vote Decision

J. David Gopoian and Sissie (1994) argue that during elections late deciders are not Party loyal voters. It is also believed that late deciders are unpredictable in their vote choice. The candidate preferences of late deciders are not determined by the conventional political forces that motivate other voters in elections. On the other hand, early deciders are those electorates who already chose the party they wanted to support in election. The voting behavior of those voters who are deciding late in the campaign is unpredictable. Campbell et al. (1960:82-83) figured out the voters who decided earlier are distinguished from those who decide late primarily in the degree to which they experienced in their evaluation of the candidate and party. Whereas, voters who decided to vote a political party one month before the polling day are considered partisan voter and those voters who are undecided to vote a particular party till the last day or one day before the election consider them floating voters or undecided voters.

Among the total respondents 35.1% said that they decide to vote a party candidate one month ahead of the election, while 9.2% respondents stated that they decide to vote one week earlier than election. On the other hand, 8.1% responded that they decide to vote a candidate one day before election and 15.6% respondents decide to vote a candidate on the polling day. Among the total respondents, 32.1% were confused about the timing to decide vote (see in Figure-1). During survey those respondents were unclear and they believed that they vote to their party candidate from the first day, while some among them did not remember that when they decide to vote a particular candidate. Among the total respondents

17% decide to vote a candidate one day before or on polling day that may be deem floating voters. For further detail the association of the different controlled variable like gender, age, qualification, income, marital status, districts and union council and the timing of decision to vote depict a detail picture. We can say that those voters who decided one day prior or on the polling day are considered later deciders. While those voters who decided one month before the election is called earlier deciders.

4.3.1.1 Gender Consideration

The correlation of the data illustrates that there is a clear difference between the response of the male and female respondents about the timing to decide vote. In Table-37, among the total respondents, a small number of male and female respondents said that they decided to

vote one day earlier from polling day. However, some of the male and female respondents assume that they decide to vote on elections day.

Meanwhile, several male and female respondents did not have any idea that when they had to decide to vote. However, among the total respondents a major portion of male voters and some of female voters decide one month earlier from the polling day. Moreover, a tiny portion of male and female respondents decide to vote a week ago from the election.

The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows association between decision to vote and gender.

Table No. 37 When you decide to vote in election? One month One week One day On election Don‟t Gender before before before day know election election election Total 253 Male 56(5%) 47(4.2%) 93(8.3%) 177(15.8%) 626(55.8%) (22.5%)

Female 141(12.6%) 47(4.2%) 44(3.9%) 82(7.3%) 182(16.2%) 496(44.2%)

Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=18.672a, p-value=.001

4.3.1.2 Age Consideration

In Table-38, the age of respondents is accordingly divided into seven categories. These seven categories are classified into adults, youngster, middle age and aged. The correlation of the different categories of age group with the timing to decide vote shows the importance of age. Among the total respondents, some of adults and youngsters decided to vote one day before the election, while a meager portion of middle and aged respondents stated that they had to decide one day before election. However, among the total respondents, some of youngsters and middle age respondents said that they decided to vote on polling day, while a minor portion of aged people argued that they decided to vote on polling day. Those voters who decide to vote a particular candidate or political party one day before or on election day were considered floating voters.

On the other hand, among the total respondents, a major share of the adults, youth, middle and aged respondents were unclear about the timing when they decide to vote. Those voters who responded dubiously they may be either partisan or floating voters. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between decision to vote and age.

Table No. 38 When you decide to vote in election? Age of the One month One week One day On election Don‟t Responde before election before election before day know Total nt election 18-23 61(5.4%) 21(1.9%) 17(1.5%) 45(4%) 65(5.8%) 209(18.6%) 23-27 59(5.3%) 23(2%) 21(1.9%) 32(2.9%) 66(5.9%) 201(17.9%) 27-32 69(6.1%) 15(1.3%) 10(.9%) 44(3.9%) 59(5.3%) 197(17.6%) 32-37 59(5.3%) 18(1.6%) 14(1.2%) 14(1.2%) 38(3.4%) 143(12.7%) 37-42 57(5.1%) 10(0.9%) 15(1.3%) 13(1.2%) 51(4.5%) 146(13%) 42-50 43(3.8%) 8(0.7%) 4(0.4%) 17(1.5%) 44(3.9%) 116(10.3%) Above 50 46(4.1%) 8(0.7%) 10(0.9%) 10(0.9%) 36(3.2%) 110(9.8%) Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 45.619a, p-value=.005

4.3.1.3 Professional Consideration

Among the different professional categories of respondents, in Table-39, an insignificant number of businessmen decide to vote one day earlier from the election and a little number of businessmen decides to vote on polling day. However, a meager number of daily wagers decides to vote one day before election and some of them decide to vote on polling day. A small number of government employees decide to vote one day earlier from the election day and some of them decide to vote on election day, while a few non-government servants decide to vote one day earlier and some decides to vote on polling day. At last, a small number of farmers decide to one day earlier of the polling day and on polling day. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between decision to vote and profession.

Table No. 39 When you decide to vote in election? Profession One month One week One day On election Don‟t before before before day know Total election election election Business 41(3.7%) 6(.5%) 14(1.2%) 15(1.3%) 34(3%) 110(9.8%) Daily wage 26(2.3%) 12(1.1%) 17(1.5%) 22(2%) 18(1.6%) 95(8.5%) Government 93(8.3%) 17(1.5%) 9(.8%) 22(2%) 72(6.4%) 213(19%) Servant Non-govt. Servant 58(5.2%) 11(1%) 13(1.2%) 36(3.2%) 33(2.9%) 151(13.5%) Farming 19(1.7%) 11(1%) 8(0.7%) 11(1%) 29(2.6%) 78(7%) Unemployed 70(6.2%) 22(2%) 4(0.4%) 27(2.4%) 54(4.8%) 177(15.8%) Housewives 87(7.8%) 24(2.1%) 26(2.3%) 42(3.7%) 119(10.6%) 298(26.6%) Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 79.186a, p-value=.000

4.3.1.4 Economic Consideration

As far as monthly income is concerned, in Table-40, a small number of lower income class respondents decide to vote one day before polling and a significant number of the same income class decide to vote on election day. While a considerable number of middle and lower middle income class respondents whose monthly income decide one day before the election and a few decides to vote on Election Day. Moreover, some of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income decided one day before the election. While a large number of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income decided to vote on elections day.

Among the different income groups‟ respondents, a significant number of lower, middle and upper class said that they decide to vote one day earlier from the election.

However a sizeable number of lower, middle and upper class respondents decided to vote on polling day. Among the different income class respondents a large number of lower, middle and upper class respondents did not know when they decided to vote. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between decision to vote and income.

Table No. 41 When you decide you vote in election? Monthly One month One week One day On election Don‟t know income before before before day Total election election election Below 10,000 83(7.4%) 33(2.9%) 22(2%) 53(4.7%) 54(4.8%) 245(21.8%) 10000-20000 58(5.2%) 16(1.4%) 15(1.3%) 31(2.8%) 45(4%) 165(14.7%) 20000-30000 51(4.5%) 21(1.9%) 12(1.1%) 17(1.5%) 48(4.3%) 149(13.3%) 30000-40000 32(2.9%) 3(0.3%) 7(0.6%) 7(0.6%) 24(2.1%) 73(6.5%) 40000-50000 20(1.8%) 7(0.6%) 8(0.7%) 6(0.5%) 10(0.9%) 51(4.5%) Above 50000 31(2.8%) 2(0.2%) 0(0.0%) 8(0.7%) 11(1%) 52(4.6%) Don‟t know 119(10.6%) 21(1.9%) 27(2.4%) 53(4.7%) 167(14.9%) 387(34.5%) Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 81.350a, p-value=.000

4.3.1.5 Marital Consideration

Among the total respondents‟ majority of the married respondents decide to vote one month earlier than the election. As far as marital status is concerned, in Table-42, some of the married respondents decide to vote one day before the election and a considerable number of female decide to vote on polling day. However, meager number of unmarried respondents decides one day before the election and small quantity respondents decide to vote on polling day. Among the total married respondents, a large number of respondents did not know when they decide to vote, while a significant number of unmarried respondents had a similar response. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the decision to vote and marital status.

Table No. 42 When you decide to vote in election? Marital One month One week One day On election Don‟t status before before before day know Total election election election Married 254 59(5.3%) 53(4.7%) 102(9.1%) 241(21.5 709(63.2%) (22.6%) %) Unmarried 133(11.9%) 40(3.6%) 35(3.1%) 69(6.1%) 113(10.1 390(34.8%) %) Widow 7(0.6%) 4(0.4%) 3(0.3%) 4(0.4%) 5(0.4%) 23(2%) Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=9.074a, p-value=.336

4.3.1.6 Educational Consideration

In terms of education, in Table-43, a small number of the total respondents who have primary level education decide to vote one day before election or on the very day of

election. While, minimal ratio of secondary, higher secondary level and graduates respondents decides to vote one day before election and on polling day. On the other hand, among the total respondents, some of the illiterate respondents decide to vote one day before election and decide to vote on polling day. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows an association between decision to vote and educational qualification.

Table No. 43 When you decide you vote in election? Educational One month One week One day On election Don‟t know Qualification before before before day Total election election election Primary 26 (2.3%) 9(.8%) 9(.8%) 12(1.1%) 23(2%) 79(7%) Middle 27(2.4%) 10(.9%) 13(1.2%) 19(1.7%) 20(1.8%) 89(7.9%) Matric 61(5.4%) 28(2.5%) 22(2%) 27(2.4%) 58(5.2%) 196(17.5%)

Table No. 44 When you decide to vote in election? Geograp One month One week One day On election Don‟t Total hical before before election before day know Region election election North 171 18 22 65 104 380 15.2% 1.6% 2.0% 5.8% 9.3% 33.9% Center 99 33 27 52 149 360 8.8% 2.9% 2.4% 4.6% 13.3% 32.1% South 124 52 42 58 106 382 11.1% 4.6% 3.7% 5.2% 9.4% 34% Total 394 103 91 175 359 1122 35.1% 9.2% 8.1% 15.6% 32% 100% Pearson Chi-Square=55.767a, p-value=.000

4.3.2 Lack of Political Awareness

Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee (1963) argued that, “voters with a low level of political sophistication are more likely than highly sophisticated voters to change their mind in the weeks preceding the electoral contest”. Political interest of an individual is a very important feature for the involvement in the active politics. Langton (1969) and Massialas et al. (1971) study identified the importance of the political interest and political attachment. Political knowledge and political awareness are interconnected with each other. Verba, Schlozman and Brady (1995) pointed out that, “political knowledge, measured by asking respondents the names of public officials, representatives, ministers and indigenous politics is a significant predictor of time based political activity, voting, and political discussion”.

Various researches also emphasized that political information and political activity are interdependent on each other in a society (Carpini & Keeter, 1996: 224; Junn, 1991;

Sotirovic & McLeod, 2001:276) and growing political culture.

There are also different parameters of political participation like, awareness about the voters list, importance of vote, eligibility age for vote, manifesto of a political party etc.

It is assume that political awareness in a society has direct impact on the political participation. It is also observed that voting behaviour of the politically aware electorates is different from the politically unaware electorates. Therefore political awareness significantly affects the voters‟ preferences. 99

Regular elections are one of the fundamental principles of democratization process.

In fact, it is an effective and convenient way by which citizens can participate in political processes. To measure the level of political awareness Campbell & Nojin Kwak (2010) asked three types of questions to identify political participation like, attending a political meeting, rallies, speech; circulating a petition for a candidate or issue; and lastly, contacting a public official or a political party (McLeod et al.,1999; Xenos & Moy, 2007). To measure the level of political awareness and to identify the floating voters‟, the researcher asked from the respondents about the manifesto of political party, satisfaction from the party performance and participation in party meetings.

4.3.2.1 Information about the Party Manifesto

Political party manifesto is one of the best sources to know about the party politics and its future policies regarding the local politics and international politics (Willocq, 2016). Those who are interested in politics and members of political parties they are regularly reading their respective political parties‟ manifestoes. However, those voters who are not interested in politics and political parties they are not willing to read the political parties manifestoes.

Information regarding political party manifesto is also an indicator of political awareness.

Unfortunately, in Pakhtun society the habit of reading is very low. Therefore the political parties used social media or public speeches to inform the party voters about the manifesto.

To know the level of political awareness the researcher asked from the respondents that „do they know the party manifestos? The response of the people correlated with controlled variables (Gender, age, education, profession, marital status, monthly income and geographical regions).

4.3.2.2 Gender Consideration

Among the total respondents' majority of the female responded that they did not read the manifestoes of the political party. The main reason is that female folk is politically less aware than male family members in Pakhtun society. As far as gender is concerned, Table-

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45 shows that a significant number of female and male respondents said that they did not read the manifesto of any political party. However, some of the female respondents and male respondents did not know about the manifesto of the political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and reading of the manifesto of a political party.

Table No. 45 Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? Gender Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total know extent extent Male 67 (6%) 121(10.8%) 67(6%) 248(22.1%) 123(11%) 626(55.8%) Female 132(11.8%) 174(15.5%) 142(12.7%) 37(3.3%) 11(1%) 496(44.2%)

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4.3.2.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned, among the total respondents (see Table-47) a major share of housewives did not read the manifestoes of the political parties. Some of the unemployed respondents and government servants did not read the manifestoes of political parties.

Moreover, an insignificant number of non-government servants and daily wagers also did not read the manifestos of the political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the profession and reading of the manifesto of a political party.

Table No. 47 Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? To some To a large Total Profession Not at all No Don‟t know extent extent Business 22 (2%) 16(1.4%) 14(1.2%) 34(3%) 24(2.1%) 110(9.8%) daily wage 16(1.4%) 30(2.7%) 12(1.1%) 29(2.6%) 8(.7%) 95(8.5%) Government 26(2.3%) 44(3.9%) 43(3.8%) 69(6.1%) 31(2.8%) 213(19%) Servant Non-government 23(2%) 32(2.9%) 28(2.5%) 45(4%) 23(2%) 151(13.5%) Farming 12(1.1%) 12(1.1%) 12(1.1%) 28(2.5%) 14(1.2%) 78(7%) Unemployed 25(2.2%) 43(3.8%) 32(2.9%) 53(4.7%) 24(2.1%) 177(15.8%) Housewives 75(6.7%) 118(10.5%) 68(6.1%) 27(2.4%) 10(.9%) 298(26.6%) Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%) Chi-Square Test=1.349E2a, p-value=.000

4.3.2.4 Economic Consideration

As far as monthly income is concerned (see Table-48), a significant number of respondents who did not mention their monthly income denied reading the manifesto of a political party.

However, a large number of lower income class affirmed that they did not read the manifesto of a political party. While, a minor portion of middle class respondents reacted that they did not study the manifesto of a political party. Lastly, a minimal number of respondents upper income class said that they did not study the manifesto of a political party.

A considerable number of lower, middle and upper economic class respondent were unfamiliar about the political party manifestoes. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the income and reading of the manifesto of a political party. 102

Table No. 48 Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? To some To a large Monthly income Not at all No Don‟t Total extent extent know Below 10,000 40(3.6%) 60(5.3%) 33(2.9%) 70(6.2%) 42(3.7%) 245(21.8%) 10000-20000 29(2.6%) 48(4.3%) 20(1.8%) 46(4.1%) 22(2%) 165(14.7%) 20000-30000 21(1.9%) 25(2.2%) 38(3.4%) 44(3.9%) 21(1.9%) 149(13.3%) 30000-40000 9(0.8%) 22(2%) 15(1.3%) 21(1.9%) 6(0.5%) 73(6.5%) 40000-50000 10(0.9%) 9(0.8%) 8(0.7%) 19(1.7%) 5(0.4%) 51(4.5%) Above 50000 5(0.4%) 5(0.4%) 9(0.8%) 17(1.5%) 16(1.4%) 52(4.6%) Don‟t know 85(7.6%) 126(11.2%) 86(7.7%) 68(6.1%) 22(2%) 387(34.5%) Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%) Chi-Square Test=93.239a, p-value=.000

4.3.2.5 Marital Status Consideration

To keep in view the marital status of the respondents, among the total respondent in Table-

49, we have found a large number of married respondents who did not read the manifesto of the political party. A great number of unmarried respondents also accept that they did not study the manifestos. Some of the married and unmarried respondents show unfamiliar opinion about the parties‟ manifestoes. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the marital status and reading of the manifesto of a political party.

Table No. 49 Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? To some To a large Total Marital status Not at all No don‟t know extent extent Married 134 (11.9%) 188(16.8%) 127(11.3%) 181(16.1%) 79(7%) 709(63.2%) Unmarried 62(5.5%) 98(8.7%) 76(6.8%) 101(9%) 53(4.7%) 390(34.8%) Widow 3(0.3%) 9(0.8%) 6(0.5%) 3(0.3%) 2(0.2%) 23(2%) Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%) Chi-Square Test=7.157a, p-value=.520

4.3.2.6 Educational Consideration

As far as education is concerned, among the total respondents (see Table-50) the highest number of illiterate respondents accepted that they did not go through the manifestos of a political party.

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A significant number of graduate and post-graduate negate to read the manifestoes of a political party. Likewise, a considerable number of secondary and higher secondary school level votes responded in negative to read the manifestoes of a political party. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the educational qualification and reading of the manifesto of a political party.

Table No. 50

Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? Educational Not at all No don‟t know To some To a large Total extent extent Primary 27(2.4%) 22(2%) 9(.8%) 11(1%) 10(.9%) 79(7%) Middle 15(1.3%) 30(2.7%) 16(1.4%) 22(2%) 6(.5%) 89(7.9%) Matric 28(2.5%) 45(4%) 39(3.5%) 57(5.1%) 27(2.4%) 196(17.5%) Intermediate 20(1.8%) 23(2%) 24(2.1%) 25(2.2%) 11(1%) 103(9.2%) BA/BSc 30(2.7%) 45(4%) 39(3.5%) 45(4%) 22(2%) 181(16.1%) MA/MSc 34(3%) 58(5.2%) 42(3.7%) 90(8%) 44(3.9%) 268(23.9%) M.Phil 2(0.2%) 4(0.4%) 2(0.2%) 8(0.7%) 7(0.6%) 23(2%) Illiterate 43(3.8%) 68(6.1%) 38(3.4%) 27(2.4%) 7(0.6%) 183(16.3%) Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%) Chi-Square Test=89.216a, p-value=.000

4.3.2.7 Regional Consideration

In Table-51, among the respondents the highest ratio of the respondents of northern and central and southern geographical regions denied to read the manifesto of a political party.

However, a significant number of northern, central and southern geographical regions respondents were unfamiliar from the manifestoes.

A large number of respondents who belong to south, center and north said that they read the manifestoes of political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the reading of the manifesto of a political party and geographical region.

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Table No. 51 Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting? Geographical Not at all No Don‟t know To some To a large Total Region extent extent 70 92 89 94 35 380 North 6.2% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 3.1% 33.9% 69 108 43 94 46 360 Center 6.1% 9.6% 3.8% 8.4% 4.1% 32.1% 60 95 77 97 53 382 South 5.3% 8.5% 6.9% 8.6% 4.7% 34% 199 295 209 285 134 1122 Total 17.7% 26.3% 18.6% 25.4% 11.9% 100% Chi-Square Test= 21.921a, p-value=.000

4.3.3 Satisfaction from the Performance of Political Party

The third important parameter to identify the floating voter is satisfaction from the party voted in the previous election. Soderlund (2008) in his research clearly pointed out that trust on political party strengthens the number of loyal voters. He argued that the possibility of vote switching was strongly influenced by the evaluations of the performance of the party voted in the previous elections. Some voters disposed to the party they had previously voted for if they thought that it had done a good job, and on the other hand, voters switch off that political party if they considered that its performance is poor. On the basis of this argument, we can identify that how many respondents are supporting the political parties voted in the previous General Elections. The correlation of the different controlled variables (age, gender, education, marital status, profession, geographical regions) with the dependent variable (i.e., satisfaction from the performance of the party voted in 2013 General

Elections) and Chi-Square test is applied for analysis.

4.3.3.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned, in Table-52, a small number of the male respondents stated that they are not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013. While a considerable number of male respondents were uncertain about the satisfaction of the party they voted. However, a large number of male respondents said that they are satisfied from the political parties they voted in General Elections 2013.

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Among the female respondents, a small quantity of female affirmed that they are satisfied from the political parties they voted in General Elections 2013. A small number of female were undecided that either they are satisfied or not. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013.

Table No. 52 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Gender Not at all Not Don‟t To some To a large Total satisfied know extent extent Male 90 (8%) 70(6.2%) 104(9.3%) 201(17.9%) 161(14.3%) 626(55.8%) Female 74(6.6%) 62(5.5%) 109(9.7%) 162(14.4%) 89(7.9%) 496(44.2%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=12.191a, p-value=.016

4.3.3.2 Age Consideration Table-53 shows that some of adults and youngsters said that they are not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013. Likewise, a meager number of middle and aged respondents were not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013.

A large quantity of adults and youngster respondents showed their satisfaction from the political party they voted in General Elections 2013. Moreover, a considerable number of middle and old age respondents also affirmed that they are satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 election. A major portion of adults and youngsters are supporters of PTI therefore they show their satisfaction from PTI. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the age and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013 (See Table-53).

Table No. 53 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Age Not at all Not Don‟t to some to a large Total satisfied know extent extent 18-23 38 (3.4%) 22(2%) 64(5.7%) 48(4.3%) 37(3.3%) 209(18.6%) 23-27 36(3.2%) 17(1.5%) 43(3.8%) 64(5.7%) 41(3.7%) 201(17.9%) 27-32 16(1.4%) 24(2.1%) 33(2.9%) 72(6.4%) 52(4.6%) 197(17.6%) 32-37 19(1.7%) 16(1.4%) 19(1.7%) 56(5%) 33(2.9%) 143(12.7%) 37-42 19(1.7%) 22(2%) 23(2%) 44(3.9%) 38(3.4%) 146(13%) 42-50 19(1.7%) 14(1.2%) 19(1.7%) 43(3.8%) 21(1.9%) 116(10.3%) Above 50 17(1.5%) 17(1.5%) 12(1.1%) 36(3.2%) 28(2.5%) 110(9.8%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 54.055a, p-value=.000 106

4.3.3.3 Professional Consideration

In terms of the professional affiliation of the respondents, in Table-54, among the respondents, a significant number of the housewives were not satisfied of the party they voted in General Elections 2013. However, some of the unemployed, government employees, non-governments servants‟ respondents unsatisfied from the party they voted in

2013 election. Moreover, a meager portion of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers stated that they were not satisfied of the party they voted in General Elections 2013.

Nonetheless, a large number of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, housewives, non-government and government servants affirmed their satisfaction from the party they casted vote to in 2013 election. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the profession and satisfaction of the party performance in

General Elections 2013.

Table No. 54 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Profession Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t to some to a large extent Total know extent Business 23 (2%) 13(1.2%) 16(1.4%) 27(2.4%) 31(2.8%) 110(9.8%) Daily wage 17(1.5%) 11(1%) 21(1.9%) 29(2.6%) 17(1.5%) 95(8.5%) Government 27(2.4%) 26(2.3%) 34(3%) 80(7.1%) 46(4.1%) 213(19%) Servant Non-govt. 22(2%) 10(0.9%) 19(1.7%) 63(5.6%) 37(3.3%) 151(13.5%) servant Farming 11(1%) 8(0.7%) 9(0.8%) 22(2%) 28(2.5%) 78(7%) Unemployed 30(2.7%) 24(2.1%) 41(3.7%) 51(4.5%) 31(2.8%) 177(15.8%) house wife 34(3%) 40(3.6%) 73(6.5%) 91(8.1%) 60(5.3%) 298(26.6%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 47.637a, p-value=.003

4.3.3.4 Economic Consideration

In the case of income a considerable number of lower class and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income said that they are unsatisfied from the party they voted in

2013 polls. It is assumed that most of the lower income class people politically less aware therefore they are always unsatisfied from the political parties they voted. It is also observed that the lower income class have very weak political affiliation and they can easily change their loyalties. Although, a small quantity of lower middle, middle and upper class stated 107

that they did not satisfy from the party they voted in General Elections 2013. Among the respondents of different monthly income very marginal number among the respondents did not satisfied from the performance of the party voted in General Elections 2013.

A significant number of lower, middle and upper income class respondents said that they are satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 election. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is significant which shows an association between the income and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013 (See Table No. 55).

Table No. 55 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Monthly Income Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t To some To a large Total know extent extent Below10,000 43 (3.8%) 30(2.7%) 45(4%) 66(5.9%) 61(5.4%) 245(21.8%) 10000-20000 20(1.8%) 15(1.3%) 21(1.9%) 66(5.9%) 43(3.8%) 165(14.7%) 20000-30000 28(2.5%) 19(1.7%) 18(1.6%) 55(4.9%) 29(2.6%) 149(13.3%) 30000-40000 10(.9%) 10(0.9%) 14(1.2%) 26(2.3%) 13(1.2%) 73(6.5%) 40000-50000 8(0.7%) 5(0.4%) 8(0.7%) 18(1.6%) 12(1.1%) 51(4.5%) Above 50000 5(0.4%) 6(0.5%) 13(1.2%) 13(1.2%) 15(1.3%) 52(4.6%) Don‟t know 50(4.5%) 47(4.2%) 94(8.4%) 119(10.6%) 77(6.9%) 387(34.5%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=34.234a, p-value=.081

4.3.3.5 Marital Status of the Respondents

In terms of the marital status of the respondents in Table-56, among the total respondents, an important number of married respondents have a negative opinion about the political party they voted in General Elections 2013. A few unmarried respondents responded that they are not satisfied from that party voted in 2013 polls.

A large number of married and unmarried respondents reacted positively about the party they voted in General Elections 2013. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the marital status and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013.

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Table No. 56 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Marital Not at all Not Don‟t To some To a large Total Status satisfied know extent extent Married 95(8.5%) 87(7.8%) 120(10.7%) 231(20.6%) 176(15.7%) 709(63.2%) Single 63(5.6%) 42(3.7%) 90(8%) 126(11.2%) 69(6.1%) 390(34.8%) Widow 6(0.5%) 3(0.3%) 3(0.3%) 6(0.5%) 5(0.4%) 23(2%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=15.423a, p-value=.050

4.3.3.6 Educational Consideration

As for as education is concerned Table-57 shows that, among the total respondents a major share of graduate and post-graduate respondents were not satisfied with the party they voted in General Elections 2013. Although some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents dissatisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013.

Moreover, a meager portion of illiterate respondents were not satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 polls.

Nonetheless, a significant number of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post-graduate and illiterate respondents showed their satisfaction for the party they voted in 2013 elections. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between educational qualification and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013.

Table No. 57 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Educational Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t To some To a large Total qualification know extent extent Primary 18(1.6%) 9(.8%) 13(1.2%) 25(2.2%) 14(1.2%) 79(7%) Middle 16(1.4%) 10(.9%) 19(1.7%) 20(1.8%) 24(2.1%) 89(7.9%) Matric 22(2%) 26(2.3%) 36(3.2%) 63(5.6%) 49(4.4%) 196(17.5%) Intermediate 19(1.7%) 14(1.2%) 22(2%) 36(3.2%) 12(1.1%) 103(9.2%) BA/BSc 25(2.2%) 27(2.4%) 35(3.1%) 58(5.2%) 36(3.2%) 181(16.1%) MA/MSc 37(3.3%) 25(2.2%) 41(3.7%) 94(8.4%) 71(6.3%) 268(23.9%) M.Phil 6(0.5%) 1(0.1%) 2(0.2%) 10(0.9%) 4(0.4%) 23(2%) Illiterate 21(1.9%) 20(1.8%) 45(4%) 57(5.1%) 40(3.6%) 183(16.3%) Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=37.099a, p-value=.117

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4.3.3.7 Regional Consideration

In Table-58 among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, majority of the respondents of southern region were not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013.28 Apart from that some of the respondents of northern and central geographical zones were not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections

2013. A small portion of the respondents of southern, central and northern regions were undecided.

A considerable number of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 polls. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondent and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013.

Table No. 58 Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections? Geograp Not at all Not Don‟t To some To a Total hical satisfied know extent large Region extent North 55 42 70 143 70 380 4.9% 3.7% 6.2% 12.7% 6.2% 33.9% Center 48 44 81 124 63 360 4.3% 3.9% 7.2% 11.1% 5.6% 32.1% South 61 46 62 96 117 382 5.4% 4.1% 5.5% 8.6% 10.4% 34% Total 164 132 213 363 250 1122 14.6% 11.8% 19% 32.4% 22.3% 100% Pearson Chi-Square= 33.172a, p-value=.000

4.3.4 Lack of Interest in Party Politics

Edward C. Dreyer (1971) in his research work argued that political information is very important determinant for a voter to decide about the vote choice. Political parties are using different tools for the political information of the voter during the election campaign.

Dreyer argued that in the United States media specialists of political parties have been involved in the election campaign. Modern technological innovations in the communication

28 The results of 2018 election were completely different from previous election. In southern region JUI failed to secure its previous position and PTI became the wining political party. Therefore we can say that voters of southern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were unsatisfied from the JUI-F they voted in 2013 elections. 110

industry have brought new developments in the character and contents of the mass communication. It is difficult for a candidate to communicate with all the voters of the constituency, therefore, media specialist use media as a source of political information

(Dreyer, 1971). The contesting candidates in their speeches during election campaign on print, electronic and social media make attentive the voters about the local and international politics. Those people who are more in touch with such kind of media they are more politically aware than those who are avoiding the use of media (Graham, 1974). In developing societies, majority of the people belong to lower or lower middle class; therefore, their literacy ratio is low. Due to illiteracy and poverty majority of the voters did not use any kind of media. However, social media that consist of Facebook, Twitter,

Instagram, WhatsApp etc are playing a significant role in political awareness. In Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, a small number of voters are using media for political nourishment.

Therefore, the contesting candidates are trying to inject the political ideas into the voters through public speeches in election meeting and other party meetings. Another source of communication is party activists that are available in each and every village and towns of the constituency. The party activists discuss the party politics among common voters. They spread information regarding manifestoes and party programme among the common voters and criticizing the other political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the only best source of political awareness is contesting candidates‟ speeches. Those speeches infiltrate the party message from one person to another person of the community. To measure the political awareness of the voters researcher asked a question from the respondents that either he/she participate in the party meetings during the election or not? This variable is correlated with gender, age, profession, education, marital status, income level and geographical region.

The Chi-square test results of different variables are given below.

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4.3.4.1 Gender Consideration

In terms of gender among the total respondents, the majority of female responded that they did not participate in party meetings. Some of male respondents also did not participate in the party meetings. On the other hand, majority of the male respondents stated that they participate in party meetings. A small number of female respondents also participate in party meetings. The Pakhtun society is a male dominant society. There is a common perception that only men can actively participate in politics and women are responsible for household (family). Therefore we can see rarely any female political activists in election campaign. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and participation in party meetings (See Table-59).

Table No. 59 Are you participating in party meetings? Gender Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total know extent extent Male 113 (10.1%) 144(12.8%) 34(3%) 223(19.9%) 112(10%) 626(55.8%) Female 176(15.7%) 179(16%) 22(2%) 78(7%) 41(3.7%) 496(44.2%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=1.093E2a, p-value=.000

4.3.4.2 Age Consideration

Some of the adolescents and youngsters responded that they did not participate in party meetings. Apart from that some middle and old age respondents asserted that they did not participate in party meetings. However, a major portion of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents affirmed that they are regularly participating in party meetings. The P- value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age and participation in party meetings (See Table-60).

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Table No. 60 Are you participating in party meetings? Age Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total know extent extent 18-23 50(4.5%) 60(5.3%) 10(0.9%) 62(5.5%) 27(2.4%) 209(18.6%) 23-27 54(4.8%) 67(6.0%) 8(0.7%) 43(3.8%) 29(2.6%) 201(17.9%) 27-32 48(4.3%) 56(5%) 10(0.9%) 64(5.7%) 19(1.7%) 197(17.6%) 32-37 36(3.2%) 38(3.4%) 10(0.9%) 39(3.5%) 20(1.8%) 143(12.7%) 37-42 42(3.7%) 41(3.7%) 8(0.7%) 36(3.2%) 19(1.7%) 146(13%) 42-50 35(3.1%) 35(3.1%) 4(0.4%) 29(2.6%) 13(1.2%) 116(10.3%) Above 50 24(2.1%) 26(2.3%) 6(0.5%) 28(2.5%) 26(2.3%) 110(9.8%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 24.430a, p-value=.437

4.3.4.3 Professional Consideration

In terms of the profession, among the total respondents the majority of housewives said that they do not participate in the party meetings. Followed by some of government servants, unemployed, non-government servants and daily wagers responded that they do not participate in the party meetings. Moreover, among the total respondents, a small portion of farmers and businessmen refuse to participate in party meetings.

Conversely, some of businessmen, farmers, government and non-government servants, housewives and jobless respondents accepted that they participate in the party meetings regularly. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the profession and participation in party meetings (See Table No. 61).

Table No. 61 Are you participating in party meetings? To some To a large Total Profession Not at all No Don‟t know extent extent Business 19(1.7%) 20(1.8%) 10(0.9%) 34(3.0%) 27(2.4%) 110(9.8%) Daily wage 21(1.9%) 29(2.6%) 4(0.4%) 29(2.6%) 12(1.1%) 95(8.5%) Government 61(5.4%) 59(5.3%) 9(0.8%) 57(5.1%) 27(2.4%) 213(19.0%) Servant Non-govt. 35(3.1%) 48(4.3%) 6(0.5%) 52(4.6%) 10(.9%) 151(13.5%) servant Farming 12(1.1%) 15(1.3%) 5(0.4%) 27(2.4%) 19(1.7%) 78(7%) Unemployed 36(3.2%) 50(4.5%) 5(0.4%) 60(5.3%) 26(2.3%) 177(15.8%) House wife 105(9.4%) 102(9.1%) 17(1.5%) 42(3.7%) 32(2.9%) 298(26.6%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=88.809a, p-value=.000

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4.3.4.4 Economic Consideration

As far as income is concerned, among the total respondents majority of the respondents who did not know or did not mention their monthly income said that they do not participate in the party meetings. Some of the lower and lower middle, middle class respondents refuse to participate in the party meetings. Although a small portion of upper class among the total respondents expressed disengagement to the party meetings.

Whereas, some of the lower, middle and upper class respondents stated that they regularly participate in the party meetings. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the income and participation in party meetings (See Table No. 62).

Table No. 62 Are you participating in party meetings? Monthly income Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total know extent extent Below 10,000 46 (4.1%) 81(7.2%) 12(1.1%) 63(5.6%) 43(3.8%) 245(21.8%) 10000-20,000 39(3.5%) 43(3.8%) 5(0.4%) 51(4.5%) 27(2.4%) 165(14.7%) 20000-30,000 36(3.2%) 36(3.2%) 15(1.3%) 47(4.2%) 15(1.3%) 149(13.3%) 30000-40,000 22(2%) 22(2%) 4(0.4%) 18(1.6%) 7(0.6%) 73(6.5%) 40000-50,000 19(1.7%) 11(1%) 1(0.1%) 14(1.2%) 6(0.5%) 51(4.5%) Above 50,000 6(0.5%) 13(1.2%) 4(0.4%) 20(1.8%) 9(0.8%) 52(4.6%) Don‟t know 121(10.8%) 117(10.4%) 15(1.3%) 88(7.8%) 46(4.1%) 387(34.5%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 48.117a, p-value=.002

4.3.4.5 Marital Status of the Respondents

In Table-63, among the total respondents, majority of the married respondents expressed disengagement to party meetings. Among the total respondents, some of the respondents whose marital status is single said that they do not participate in the party meetings.

Nonetheless, a quantity of married and unmarried respondents expressed their involvement in the party meetings regularly. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows no association between the marital status and participation in party meetings.

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Table No. 63 Are you participating in party meetings? Marital Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total status know extent extent Married 189 (16.8%) 207(18.4%) 36(3.2%) 181(16.1%) 96(8.6%) 709(63.2%) Single 93(8.3%) 113(10.1%) 18(1.6%) 115(10.2%) 51(4.5%) 390(34.8%) Widow 7(0.6%) 3(0.3%) 2(0.2%) 5(0.4%) 6(0.5%) 23(2%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square= 8.156a, p-value=.418

4.3.4.6 Educational Consideration

However education is concerned in Table-64, among the total respondents a large number of graduate and post-graduate level respondents shows their disengagement in the political parties meetings. Likewise, some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents said that they did not participate in the political party meetings. Lastly, a large amount of illiterate respondents denied participating in political party meetings. On the other hand, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post- graduate level respondents shows involvement in the political parties meetings. While a meager portion of illiterate respondents also stated that they participate in party meetings.

The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the educational qualification and participation in party meetings.

Table No. 64 Are you participating in party meetings? Educational Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total qualification know extent extent Primary 31(2.8%) 18(1.6%) 5(.4%) 14(1.2%) 11(1%) 79(7%) Middle 19(1.7%) 32(2.9%) 4(.4%) 20(1.8%) 14(1.2%) 89(7.9%) Matric 30(2.7%) 43(3.8%) 16(1.4%) 67(6%) 40(3.6%) 196(17.5%) Intermediate 28(2.5%) 26(2.3%) 9(0.8%) 26(2.3%) 14(1.2%) 103(9.2%) BA/BSc 44(3.9%) 57(5.1%) 4(0.4%) 54(4.8%) 22(2%) 181(16.1%) MA/MSc 67(6%) 73(6.5%) 7(0.6%) 89(7.9%) 32(2.9%) 268(23.9%) M.Phil 8(0.7%) 8(0.7%) 3(0.3%) 3(0.3%) 1(0.1%) 23(2%) Illiterate 62(5.5%) 66(5.9%) 8(0.7%) 28(2.5%) 19(1.7%) 183(16.3%) Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5.0%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%) Pearson Chi-Square=80.076a, p-value=.000

4.3.4.7 Regional Consideration

As far as regions are concerned in Table-65, among the total respondents a significant number of northern, central and southern geographical regions respondents said that they

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did not participate in political party meetings. However, some of northern, central and southern regions respondents expressed involvement in political parties meetings.

Furthermore, a small number of respondents of different geographical zones attitude towards the party meetings was unclear. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the geographical region and participation in party meetings.

Table No. 65 Are you participating in party meetings? Geographical Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total Region know extent extent 100 116 18 98 48 380 North 8.9% 10.3% 1.6% 8.7% 4.3% 33.9% 122 101 11 87 39 360 Center 10.9% 9% 1% 7.8% 3.5% 32.1% 67 106 27 116 66 382 South 6% 9.4% 2.4% 10.3% 5.9% 34% 289 323 56 301 153 1122 Total 25.8% 28.8% 5% 26.8% 13.6% 100% Pearson Chi-Square=34.922a, p-value=.000

Summary During the past decade, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa elections results have been fluctuated. This trend has been accounted by the presence of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In this chapter, the researcher used a multi-variables scale to identify the floating voters. According to the first variable a considerable number of respondents said that they decide to vote one day prior or on polling day. Those voters who decide one day before or on election day assumed late deciders, they can changing their political affiliation and switch to other political parties easily. Whereas, those respondents who decide to vote one month earlier from election are considered sturdy party voters. Secondly a major portion of the voters responded that they did not read the manifesto of the political party. Those voters who are reading and knowing about the party manifesto are immensely political aware rather than those voters who are not reading the party manifesto. It is presumed that those voters who are regularly reading their party manifestos are also committed party members.

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Thirdly, a significant number of respondents said that they do not satisfy from the party voted in General Elections 2013. Satisfaction from the party policies provides strength to the party affiliation of an individual. Moreover, satisfaction of the party also presented trust on the political system and party policies. Those respondents who are satisfy from the present party policies means they will support the same party in the next election.

Conversely, those respondents who are not satisfy from the party policies and programs maybe they switch to any other political party in the next election.

However, majority of the respondents expressed their disengagements to participate in the party meetings. It is assumed that those respondents who are participating in the party meeting have a high level of political interest. Political involvement and political interest have a decisive role in the individual political decision making. Those people who have interest in politics supporting the political parties, while those individuals who have lack of interest in politics are annoying to strongly associate with a political party. On the basis of these findings we can estimate that there is considerable ratio of floating voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

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CHAPTER–5

PARTISANSHIP MODEL IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Party loyal voters have strong affiliation with a political party. Campbell et al. (1960) and

Fiorina (1981) argued that the role of party identification holds a significant place in the study of elections and voting behaviour. The psychosocial model of voting behaviour based on the three scholarly works of Michigan University. These studies are considered the foundation of Psychological Model. The first research study conducted in 1948 U.S.

Presidential elections „The People Elect a President‟ by Campbell and Kahn (1952). In

1952‟s Campbell, Gurin and Miller (1954) conducted another study „The Voter Decides‟; and 1956‟s, „The American Voter‟, authored by Campbell, Converse Miller and Stokes

(1960). The proponents of Psychological Model divided the party identification into two broad categories „Traditionalist‟ and „Revisionist‟ schools (Bartels et al., 2011). Bartels argued that „Traditionalists‟ opines that party identification is psychological attachment serve as a causal force that formed voters‟ preferences (Bartels et al., 2011).

Campbell et al. (1960) illustrated that group and party identification are interconnected. Green et al. (2002) connected the nature of party identification with ethnicity and religion. Numerous other traditionalist scholars believed parents influence the political choice (political party) of children, because political attitudes can easily transmitted from parents to children in home (Achen, 1992; Franklin and Jackson 1983;

Jennings and Niemi, 1968). However, „Revisionists‟ opined that party identification is a continuous changing process that can be easily influenced by short-term political actors

(Fiorina, 1981). Those short-term political actors are candidates‟ evaluation and retrospective evaluation of the performance (Markus and Converse, 1979; Fiorina, 1981;

Brody and Rothenberg, 1988). Franklin and Jackson (1983) and Franklin (1984) studies identified that issue proximity is also a short-term political force that can influence party 118

identification. Fiorina (1981) argued that personal experience and retrospective evaluation of party‟s performance is also an important element of party identification.

On the other hand, it is also argued that party identification is an endogenous factor influenced by local and international issues. Therefore stability in party identification is directly proportional to the extent in which short-term forces influence current party identification as well as the stability of such factors (Bartels et al, 2011). Moreover, there are different opinions about the nature and measurement of partisanship. One argument is that, the socialization process determines the basis, direction and strength of partisanship.

Alford et al. (2005) Hatemi et al. (2007) Tesser (1993) argued that inheritance and socio- political factors play a key role in shaping political behaviour of an individual. Settle et al.

(2008) and Cesarini et al. (2008) pointed out the role of political orientations and trust on political system in determining party affiliation of an individual. Partisanship enabling voters to adapt themselves to the new political system, evaluate political actors, and make political choices. However, Dalton and Weldon (2005) figured out that the development of party affiliation also indicate a transformation in mass loyalties from the individual politicians (Personal influence), that created the new political system to more durable party organizations.

In the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, voters supported different political parties in different elections. In 1970, PPP led Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto government came into power with a socialist agenda. During the election campaign, PPP slogan was „Roti, Kapra, Makan‟

(bread, clothes and house) that was more attractive and appealing to the voters. Hence, socialism was flourishing in USSR and other countries of the world with the agenda of nationalization. Later on, when PPP came into power, it implemented land reforms and nationalization program in Pakistan (Gopinath, 1975:79). PPP reforms had built a strong vote bank among the middle and lower class in rural and urban areas of Pakistan generally and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly. However, voters who had religious leaning

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supported the religious political parties, even though, the ethnic tendencies attract toward the ethnic political parties. Moreover, several political parties vote bank growing up in different elections. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa different political parties have their vote bank.

During survey some questions were asked from respondents regarding party identification.

The questions regarding party identification were correlated with gender, age, education, profession and geographical regions. The correlation of both variables provides a sketch of partisanship in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

5.2 POLITICAL PARTIES MEMBERSHIP IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Party membership is an important channel for political participation. Scarrow (2017) argue that strong party membership helped political parties to get a victory in elections. Therefore, political parties participate in elections. The Voters political affiliation is also changing with the passage of time. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa long-established political parties experienced a quick decline in its membership, while the new political parties e.g., Pakistan Tehreek-i-

Insaf (PTI) memberships moving up. However, ANP, JUI, JI, PPP, PML-N, QWP etc. also have a significant membership in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. To identify the respondents‟ political affiliation and party membership a question was asked that “Do you have party membership? The variable is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age, profession, education, marital status, language and geographical region).

5.2.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, a large number of male respondents and female respondents said that they have political parties‟ membership.

However, some of male and female respondents accepted that they didn‟t have any political party membership. Women are comparatively less aware about the political parties‟ membership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, men have more understanding of political parties‟ membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and party membership (See Table No. 66). 120

Table No. 66 Do you have a political party membership? Gender No Yes Don‟t Know Total Male 197 398 31 626 17.6% 35.5% 2.8% 55.8% Female 212 250 34 496 18.9% 22.3% 3% 44.2% Total 409 648 65 1122 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square=19.693a, p-value=.000

5.2.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories, a significant number of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents stated that they are members of the political parties.

Contrary to that, a small number of adult, youth, middle age and aged respondents denied that they have membership of any political party. It is observed that among the respondents the middle and old age respondents‟ ratio of party membership is greater than young age respondents. In fact the old age respondents are more experienced and politically aware than youth. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the age and party membership (See Table No. 67).

Table No. 67 Do you have a political party membership? Age No Yes Don‟t Know Total 71 130 8 209 18-23 6.3% 11.6% 0.7% 18.6% 75 112 14 201 23-27 6.7% 10% 1.2% 17.9% 75 111 11 197 27-32 6.7% 9.9% 1% 17.6% 56 79 8 143 32-37 5% 7% 0.7% 12.7% 54 83 9 146 37-42 4.8% 7.4% 0.8% 13.0% 36 71 9 116 42-50 3.2% 6.3% 0.8% 10.3% 42 62 6 110 Above 50 3.7% 5.5% 0.5% 9.8% 409 648 65 1122 Total 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square=5.964a, p-value=.918

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5.2.3 Income Consideration

In terms of income, among the total respondents, majority of the respondents of lower income class and middle class accepted that they have party membership. However, a minor portion of middle upper and upper class affirmed that they have party membership. A large number of respondents who did not mention their income responded that they have membership of political party.

Contrary to that, some of the respondents of lower class and a large number of the respondents who did not mention their income denied that they are member of any political party. A small number of respondents of middle and upper class denied that they are member any political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the income and party membership (See Table No. 68).

Table No. 68 Do you have a political party membership? Monthly Don‟t Total No Yes income Know 83 147 15 245 below10,000 7.4% 13.1% 1.3% 21.8% 52 108 5 165 10000-20000 4.6% 9.6% 0.4% 14.7% 71 69 9 149 20000-30000 6.3% 6.1% 0.8% 13.3% 31 35 7 73 30000-40000 2.8% 3.1% 0.6% 6.5% 18 32 1 51 40000-50000 1.6% 2.9% 0.1% 4.5% 12 38 2 52 Above 50000 1.1% 3.4% 0.2% 4.6% 142 219 26 387 Don‟t know 12.7% 19.5% 2.3% 34.5% 409 648 65 1122 Total 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=25.161a, p-value=.014

5.2.4 Marital Status Consideration

In terms of marital status, among the total respondents, a huge number of married and unmarried respondents said that they have political party membership. On the other hand, some of the married and unmarried accepted that they didn‟t have a membership of any political parties. However, a minute portion of married, unmarried and widows simply said

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that they don‟t know anything about party membership. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the marital status and party membership (See Table No.69).

Table No. 69 Do you have a political party membership? Marital status No Yes Don‟t Know Total 261 412 36 709 Married 23.3% 36.7% 3.2% 63.2% 141 222 27 390 Unmarried 12.6% 19.8% 2.4% 34.8% 7 14 2 23 Widow 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 2.0% 409 648 65 1122 Total 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 2.185a, p-value=.702

5.2.5 Educational Consideration

In terms of education, among the total respondents, some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary school level voters said that they have party membership. A large number of graduate and post-graduate level respondents were party members. A major portion of illiterate respondents also have party membership.

A minor portion of primary, secondary and higher secondary school, graduates and post-graduate level respondents denied any political party membership. While a significant number of illiterate respondents said that they haven‟t party membership. Illiterate people are comparatively less politically aware than the literate citizens. Therefore the ratio of illiterate respondents‟ party membership is lower than literate respondents. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the educational qualification and party membership (See Table No.70).

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Table No. 70 Do you have a political party membership? Educational Don‟t No Yes Total Qualification Know 29 41 9 79 Primary 2.6% 3.7% 0.8% 7% 26 58 5 89 Middle 2.3% 5.2% 0.4% 7.9% 55 126 15 196 Matric 4.9% 11.2% 1.3% 17.5% 41 54 8 103 Intermediate 3.7% 4.8% 0.7% 9.2% 70 101 10 181 BA/BSc 6.2% 9% 0.9% 16.1% 100 164 4 268 MA/MSc 8.9% 14.6% 0.4% 23.9% 10 12 1 23 M. Phil 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 2.0% 78 92 13 183 Illiterate 7% 8.2% 1.2% 16.3% 409 648 65 1122 Total 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=29.090a, p-value=.010

5.2.6 Regional Consideration

Among the total respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in

Table-71, a large number of the respondents of northern, central and southern geographical regions accepted that they have affiliation with a political party.

However, some of the respondents of central region and northern region said that they did not belong to any political party. While a small number of respondents of southern region denied that they have the membership of any political party. The P-value<0.05 of the

Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region and party membership.

Table No. 71 Do you have membership with a political party? Geographical Regions No Yes Don‟t Know Total 147 225 8 380 North 13.1% 20.1% 0.7% 33.9% 141 197 22 360 Center 12.6% 17.6% 2% 32.1% 121 226 35 382 South 10.8% 20.1% 3.1% 34% 409 648 65 1122 Total 36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=20.951a, p-value= .000

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5.3 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTION ABOUT PARTY AFFILIATION/

ATTACHMENT

Party affiliation is an important component of democracy, because political Parties provide a landscape to the democratic system. Dalton and Weldon (2005) argued that positive perception regarding the democratization process is growing party affiliation. To know the respondents' opinion about political parties‟ membership a question was asked that, “Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?” The response of the voters is correlated with gender, age, education, income, marital status, geographical regions.

5.3.1 Gender Consideration

In terms of gender, among the total respondents, majority of male and female respondents agreed that vote should be given on the basis of political party affiliation. However, some of the male and female disagree and denied that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation. Moreover, a minor portion of male and female did not know that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation or not. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 72).

Table No. 72 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation. Gender Extremely Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally Total Disagree Agree Male 103 112 47 277 87 626 9.2% 10% 4.2% 24.7% 7.8% 55.8% Female 58 88 106 199 45 496 5.2% 7.8% 9.4% 17.7% 4% 44.2% Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=49.963a, p-value=.000

5.3.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age groups in Table-72, a large number of adults, youth, middle and old age respondents said that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation. Contrary to that, some of the adults and youngsters considered that party

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affiliation is not important for a voter. A minor portion of middle and old age respondents considered that it is not important for a voter to cast vote on the basis of party affiliation.

Age is playing an important role in the growth of political maturity of an individual.

Therefore, the highest ratio of senior and middle age respondents support the perception to support party identification in election. The Chi-square test provides a highly significant p- value. The p-value<0.05 shows that there is an association between the age of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 73).

Table No. 73 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation? Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Totally Total Age Disagree know Agree 37 35 23 96 18 209 18-23 3.3% 3.1% 2.0% 8.6% 1.6% 18.6% 38 41 32 63 27 201 23-27 3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 5.6% 2.4% 17.9% 24 39 24 92 18 197 27-32 2.1% 3.5% 2.1% 8.2% 1.6% 17.6% 29 16 25 60 13 143 32-37 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% 5.3% 1.2% 12.7% 11 33 21 57 24 146 37-42 1% 2.9% 1.9% 5.1% 2.1% 13.0% 10 19 19 55 13 116 42-50 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 4.9% 1.2% 10.3% 12 17 9 53 19 110 Above 50 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 4.7% 1.7% 9.8% 161 200 153 476 132 1122 Total 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=50.025a, p-value=.001

5.3.3 Professional Consideration

Table-74 shows that among the total respondents, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, non-government servants, farmers and jobless respondents considered party affiliation important for vote casting. However, the majority of government servants and housewives were favouring to vote a party.

On the other hand, a small portion of the business community and farmers argue that vote should be given to a political party. Nonetheless, a significant number of government employees, non-government organizations employees, jobless and housewives believed that party affiliation is not important for the voters. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is 126

highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and party affiliation.

Table No. 74 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation? Profession Extremely Disagre Don‟t Agree Totally Total Disagree e know Agree Business 18 22 12 46 12 110 1.6% 2% 1.1% 4.1% 1.1% 9.8% daily wage 8 14 16 49 8 95 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 4.4% 0.7% 8.5% Government Servant 41 42 15 80 35 213 3.7% 3.7% 1.3% 7.1% 3.1% 19.0% Non-government 29 28 10 65 19 151 servant 2.6% 2.5% 0.9% 5.8% 1.7% 13.5% Farming 6 9 9 47 7 78 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 4.2% 0.6% 7% Unemployed 30 38 15 67 27 177 2.7% 3.4% 1.3% 6% 2.4% 15.8% Housewives 29 47 76 122 24 298 2.6% 4.2% 6.8% 10.9% 2.1% 26.6% Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=90.218a, p-value=.000

5.3.4 Income Consideration

To keep the income of respondents under consideration, a huge number of the lower class and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income argued that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation. Although some of the respondents of lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper income class were in favour of the party affiliation.

Conversely, among the total respondents, a minute number of middle and upper income class disagree to vote on the basis of party affiliation. Moreover, some of the poor and lower middle class and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income denied voting a candidate on the basis of party affiliation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 75).

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Table No. 75 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation? Monthly income Extremely Disagre Don‟t Agree Totally Total Disagree e know Agree below 10,000 29 32 27 122 35 245 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 10.9% 3.1% 21.8% 10000-20000 34 32 17 66 16 165 3% 2.9% 1.5% 5.9% 1.4% 14.7% 20000-30000 25 40 14 50 20 149 2.2% 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 1.8% 13.3% 30000-40000 17 13 7 29 7 73 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 6.5% 40000-50000 11 8 4 25 3 51 1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 4.5% Above 50000 5 7 2 23 15 52 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2% 1.3% 4.6% Don‟t know 40 68 82 161 36 387 3.6% 6.1% 7.3% 14.3% 3.2% 34.5% Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 80.461a, p-value=.000

5.3.6 Educational Consideration

In terms of education, among the total respondents, a large number of secondary school, graduate and post-graduate level respondents agree to vote a candidate on the basis of party affiliation. Even though, some of the primary school level and illiterate respondents said that voters should be given to the party. Contrary, some of primary, secondary school, graduate and post-graduate and illiterate respondents were against the party affiliation. The

P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table

No.76).

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Table No. 76 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation? Education Extremely Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally Total Disagree Agree 10 13 17 32 7 79 Primary 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 2.9% 0.6% 7.0% 11 16 15 38 9 89 Middle 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 3.4% 0.8% 7.9% 13 23 28 106 26 196 Matric 1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 9.4% 2.3% 17.5% 14 19 13 39 18 103 Intermediat e 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 3.5% 1.6% 9.2% 35 38 16 74 18 181 BA/BSc 3.1% 3.4% 1.4% 6.6% 1.6% 16.1% 56 56 14 102 40 268 MA/MSc 5.0% 5% 1.2% 9.1% 3.6% 23.9% 9 6 2 6 0 23 M.Phil 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 13 29 48 79 14 183 Illiterate 1.2% 2.6% 4.3% 7.0% 1.2% 16.3% 161 200 153 476 132 1122 Total 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 1.090E2a, p-value=.000

5.3.7 Regional Consideration

A large number of the respondents of southern geographical region agree to vote on the basis of party affiliation. Although some of the respondents of central and northern region were in favour of party affiliation. Contrary to that, among the total respondents, numerous respondents of central and northern geographical regions deprived of party affiliation. However, in southern region there was a minor portion of respondents who did not support party affiliation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 77). Table No.77 Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation? Geographical Extremely Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally Agree Total Region Disagree North 72 73 36 148 51 380 6.4% 6.5% 3.2% 13.2% 4.5% 33.9% Center 49 75 72 137 27 360 4.4% 6.7% 6.4% 12.2% 2.4% 32.1% South 40 52 45 191 54 382 3.6% 4.6% 4% 17% 4.8% 34% Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122 14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=48.412a, p-value=.000

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5.4 PARTY LEADER VERSUS POLITICAL PARTY

As a result of massive political and social changes occurred over the last seventy (70) years, electoral politics in Pakistan has remained largely a family enterprise. A small number of families continue to dominate Pakistani political parties (Mushtaq et al., 2013). The theme of the focus of power around leadership in the democratic political system is the old one. In fact in developing societies party leaders occupy a central place in democratic setup (Leduc,

2001; Marsh, 1993; Cross and Blais, 2012:128). In Pakistan, each political party is considered the property of a particular family. Likewise, Pakistan Muslim League-N to

Nawaz Sharif family, Pakistan Peoples Party to Bhutto family, Awami National Party to

Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan (Bacha Khan) family, Qawmi Watan Party to Aftab Ahmad

Khan Sherapo family and Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-F to Maulana Mufti Mehmood family and so on. The overall sketch of the politics in Pakistan generally and particularly in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa is dominated by a few personalities. The prominent political personalities in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, Asfandyar Wali Khan, Alhaj

Ghulam Bilour, Akram Khan Durrani and Saifullah Brothers etc.

Maurice Duverge argued that in democracies, political parties generate „political elites‟ and carry on the campaign to win elections. The main objectives of the political parties are to articulate the public opinion and aggregate public interest (Duverge, 1987:

23). But in Pakistan, the interventions of dictatorial regimes in different time disturb the democratic process. As a result political parties could not fulfill the democratic values and confined to the personality-oriented politics. Another important aspect of the political parties‟ failure is forced exclusion of different political parties and their leadership during martial law regimes. The major examples are Public Representatives Office Disqualification

Order (PRODA), Elective Bodies Disqualification Order (EBDO) and 58 (2)b etc. On the other hand, political parties trying to grow up and play its role in the political development

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of the country and as a result of that the ratio of political parties‟ membership growing up in different elections.

In this part of the chapter, the researcher is trying to locate the respondents‟ opinion concerning the leadership and political party. A question asked from the respondents about their political party and leader. The answer of the respondents is correlated with controlled variables (i.e., gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions).

5.4.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned in Table-78, among the total respondents, a large number of male and female respondents argued that they vote for the party, not to the leader of the party. However, some of the male respondents and female respondents disagreed to support party rather than leadership. Moreover, a minor portion of the male and female respondents‟ had a vague response. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 78 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Gender No Yes Don‟t know Total Male 223 370 33 626 19.9% 33% 2.9% 55.8% Female 168 269 59 496 15% 24% 5.3% 44.2% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57% 8.2% 100% Chi-Square test=16.204a, p-value=.000

5.4.2 Age Consideration

In terms of age, among the total respondents in Table-79, some of the adults, youth, middle and old age respondents believed that they are supporting the political party rather than the leader of the party. In opposition among the total respondents, various young age respondents disagree to support a political party. While a meager number of middle and old age respondents disagree with rest of respondents regarding the support of the political

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party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 79 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Age No Yes Don‟t know Total 78 112 19 209 18-23 7% 10.0% 1.7% 18.6% 73 114 14 201 23-27 6.5% 10.2% 1.2% 17.9% 71 110 16 197 27-32 6.3% 9.8% 1.4% 17.6% 41 87 15 143 32-37 3.7% 7.8% 1.3% 12.7% 47 87 12 146 37-42 4.2% 7.8% 1.1% 13.0% 43 64 9 116 42-50 3.8% 5.7% 0.8% 10.3% 38 65 7 110 Above 50 3.4% 5.8% 0.6% 9.8% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57% 8.2% 100% Chi-Square Test= 5.742a, p-value=.929

5.4.3 Professional Consideration

In Table-80, among the total respondents, majority of government employees, non- government servants and housewives argued that they support a political party rather than their leadership. Whereas, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, farmers and unemployed believed that they vote for a political party regardless of the party leader.

However, a minor portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government employees, non- government servants and farmers disagree to support the party leadership. Some of the jobless respondents and housewives were supporting political party leadership rather than political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 80 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Profession No Yes Don‟t know Total Business 39 61 10 110 3.5% 5.4% 0.9% 9.8% daily wage 37 55 3 95

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3.3% 4.9% 0.3% 8.5% Government 65 126 22 213 Servant 5.8% 11.2% 2% 19% Non- 50 85 16 151 government 4.5% 7.6% 1.4% 13.5% Farming 20 54 4 78 1.8% 4.8% 0.4% 7% Unemployed 74 97 6 177 6.6% 8.6% 0.5% 15.8% Housewives 106 161 31 298 9.4% 14.3% 2.8% 26.6% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57% 8.2% 100% Chi-Square Test=21.998a, p-value=.038

5.4.4 Income Consideration

In Table-81, among the total respondents, who are considered poor and those who did not mention their income affirmed that they support political party regardless of party leadership. Although some of the lower middle class, middle class, and upper-class respondents were also supporting political party rather than the leadership of a party.

Conversely, many lower and lower middle income class respondents avowed that they vote for the party leader rather than a political party, while a small number of middle and upper- class respondents also asserted that they support party leader. Whereas, a huge number of respondents who did not mention their monthly income said that they did not support the political party in case of the absence of the present leadership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 81 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Monthly income No Yes Don‟t know Total below 10,000 72 160 13 245 6.4% 14.3% 1.2% 21.8% 10000-20000 67 81 17 165 6% 7.2% 1.5% 14.7% 20000-30000 50 80 19 149 4.5% 7.1% 1.7% 13.3% 30000-40000 19 45 9 73 1.7% 4% .8% 6.5% 40000-50000 18 32 1 51 1.6% 2.9% .1% 4.5% Above 50000 16 27 9 52 133

1.4% 2.4% .8% 4.6% Don‟t know 149 214 24 387 13.3% 19.1% 2.1% 34.5% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57% 8.2% 100% Chi-Square Test=31.412a, p-value=002

5.4.6 Educational Consideration

Education is playing a key role to understand the political system of a country. In Table-82, among the total respondents, a large number of graduate and post-graduate level respondents affirmed to vote for a political party. However, some of the secondary school and higher secondary school level respondents and a minor portion of primary and middle school level respondents said that they are supporting a political party rather than a party leader. Some of the illiterate respondents argued that they vote for the political party, not to its leadership.

Conversely, some of the graduate, post-graduate, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents believed that they vote for the party leader, not a political party. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 82 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Educational No Yes don‟t Total qualification know Primary 31 40 8 79 2.8% 3.6% 0.7% 7% Middle 27 57 5 89 2.4% 5.1% 0.4% 7.9% Matric 50 123 23 196 4.5% 11.0% 2% 17.5% Intermediate 36 58 9 103 3.2% 5.2% 0.8% 9.2% BA/BSc 80 86 15 181 7.1% 7.7% 1.3% 16.1% MA/MSc 88 161 19 268 7.8% 14.3% 1.7% 23.9% M.Phil 12 10 1 23 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0% Illiterate 67 104 12 183 6.0% 9.3% 1.1% 16.3% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57.0% 8.2% 100% 134

Chi-Square Test= 24.916a, p-value=.035

5.4.7 Regional Consideration

In Table-83, the respondents of three geographical zones about the political party support have different opinion. Among the total respondents, the majority of the respondents of central, southern and northern regions affirmed to support the political party rather than leadership.

However, a small portion of the respondents in central districts, northern districts and southern districts supporting the leadership of the party rather than party. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and party support.

Table No. 83 If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? Geographical No Yes Don‟t know Total Region North 152 202 26 380 13.5% 18% 2.3% 33.9% Center 141 191 28 360 12.6% 17.0% 2.5% 32.1% South 98 246 38 382 8.7% 21.9% 3.4% 34.0% Total 391 639 92 1122 34.8% 57.0% 8.2% 100% Chi-Square Test=22.081a, p-value=.000

5.5 RESPONDENTS’ POLITICAL PARTIES AFFILIATION

Political parties are playing a significant role in the sustainability of the democratic setup. It believed that political parties are also a necessary requirement for the dictatorial regime to uphold governance and establish their rule. Nevertheless, some non-democratic actors are trying to weaken the political parties in different parts of the world. But the political parties are still the important element of a society (Carbone, 2007).

Pakistan has a multi-party political system. There are 197 registered political parties in Pakistan (ECP, 2017). In the democratic setup, political parties are always struggling to resolve political issues peacefully. In elections, political parties competing for each other to 135

get a political power. Without, the political power it is not possible to organize a society

(Hofmeister and Graow, 2011). Antony Downs said that “a political party is a team of men seeking to control the governing apparatus by gaining office in a duly constituted election”

(Downs, 1957:25). Political parties are organized bodies with a formal membership the aim of which is to exercise government power by winning political offices through the polls.

Every political party has different ways and means to get the membership. Likewise other democracies of the globe, Pakistani political parties are also using different strategies to get citizens membership. Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JIP) send membership forms to the senior members of the party who making membership through these forms in their localities.

Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf (PTI) also using the same method for membership. While ANP and PPP distributed the registration forms into Tapa members of the union council committee. The member of the committee convinces the people through party program, party candidate performance and even they use their personal influence to make membership. Apart from that, a political party is also arranging the participatory meetings in which the supporters join the party in front of local leadership. In this portion of the chapter, it is tried to identify the different party-affiliated voters. The inferential statistical test (Chi- square test) is used in which different variables are correlated.

5.5.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned among the total respondents in Table-84, some of the male and female respondents said that they did not know anything about political party membership. However, a large number of male and some of the female respondents said that they have PTI membership. Among the other political parties, some of the male and female respondents are supporting JI. Moreover, some of the male respondents and a minor portion of female respondents have JUI-F membership; although ANP has comparatively less membership than PTI, JI and JUI-F. Whereas a small number of male and female respondents alleged that they have PPP membership. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square

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test is insignificant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and different political parties affiliation.

Table No. 84 Political Party Membership Gend PP A PM Q JI JUI M JUI PTI PM None Don‟t APM Total er P NP L-N W -F Q -S AP of know L P M these Male 44 54 37 16 90 77 1 4 184 1 6 106 6 626 3.9 4.8 3.3 1.4 8.0 6.9 0. 0.4 16.4 0.1 0.5% 9.4% 0.5% 55.8 % % % % % % 1 % % % % % Fem 43 42 38 12 68 42 1 7 121 3 1 113 5 496 ale 3.8 3.7 3.4 1.1 6.1 3.7 0. 0.6 10.8 0.3 0.1% 10.1 0.4% 44.2 % % % % % % 1 % % % % % % Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122 7.8 8.6 6.7 2.5 14. 10. .2 1.0 27.2 .4% .6% 19.5 1% 100% % % % % 1% 6% % % % % Chi-Square Test= 19.369a, p-value=.080

5.5.2 Age Consideration

Sometimes the age of an individual is playing a key role in the selection of a political party.

In Table-85, among the respondents of different age groups, the majority of youth and teenagers admitted that they have PTI membership. However, a minor portion of old age respondents also has PTI membership. Some adults, teenagers, middle age and senior respondents were members of the Jamaat-e-Islami. Nonetheless, a minor portion of different age respondents has the JUI-F membership. While a small number of adults, teenagers, middle and old age respondents have ANP. PPP also has a less significant ratio of membership.

Conversely, among the total respondents, a considerable number of adults, youth, middle age and senior respondents said that they did not know anything about the party membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the respondents and party membership. PTI is still the favourite political party of youngsters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore a large number of youngsters were supporting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Table No.85

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Political party membership Age PPP ANP P Q JI JUI M JU PTI PM Non Don‟t AP Total M WP -F Q I- AP e of know ML L- M S these N 18-23 9 17 10 9 29 20 0 3 77 1 1 31 2 209 0.8 1.5 0. 0.8 2.6 1.8 0. 0. 6.9 0.1 0.1 2.8% 0.2 18.6% % % 9 % % % 0 3 % % % % % % % 23-27 15 14 15 2 14 21 0 3 63 1 1 51 1 201 1.3 1.2 1. 0.2 1.2 1.9 .0 0. 5.6 0.1 0.1 4.5% 0.1 17.9% % % 3 % % % % 3 % % % % % % 27-32 7 16 14 9 23 28 0 1 59 0 1 38 1 197 0.6 1.4 1. .8% 2% 2.5 .0 0. 5.3 .0% 0.1 3.4% 0.1 17.6% % % 2 % % 1 % % % % % 32-37 12 15 13 2 20 14 1 0 39 1 0 24 2 143 1.1 1.3 1. .2% 1.8 1.2 .1 .0 3.5 .1% .0% 2.1% .2% 12.7% % % 2 % % % % % % 37-42 18 15 6 2 18 17 0 2 33 0 1 32 2 146 1.6 1.3 .5 .2% 1.6 1.5 .0 .2 2.9 .0% .1% 2.9% .2% 13% % % % % % % % % 42-50 16 7 10 2 23 9 1 1 16 1 1 27 2 116 1.4 .6% .9 .2% 2.0 .8% .1 .1 1.4 .1% .1% 2.4% .2% 10.3% % % % % % % Above 10 12 7 2 31 10 0 1 18 0 2 16 1 110 50 0.9 1.1 .6 .2% 2.8 .9% .0 .1 1.6 .0% .2% 1.4% .1% 9.8% % % % % % % % Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122 7.8 8.6 6. 2.5 14. 10. .2 1. 27. .4% .6% 19.5 1% 100% % % 7 % 1% 6% % 0 2% % % % Chi-Square Test=1.163E2a, p-value=.001

5.5.3 Income Consideration

In terms of income Table-86 shows that, a large number of the respondents who did not mention their income affirmed that they have Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf membership, followed by the respondents of lower and middle income class. While a tiny portion of middle and upper class respondents affirmed that they have PTI membership. Some of the

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respondents of lower, middle and upper class have Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-

Islam-F membership. Awami National Party also gets the support of very small number of support of different classes. On the other hand, Pakistan Peoples Party has the biggest support from lower class respondents while a small portion of middle and upper class also support it. Pakistan Peoples Party still popular among lower income class in Pakistan.

However, the bigger portion of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income followed by lower and middle income class denied any political party membership. An insignificant number of middle and upper class respondents also refused any political party membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and party membership.

Table No. 86 Political party membership Monthly PP ANP PML Q JI JUI MQ JUI PTI PM Non Don‟ AP Total income P -N WP -F M -S AP e of t ML these kno w below 23 15 18 6 31 48 0 3 62 1 1 35 2 245 10,000 2% 1.3 1.6 .5% 2.8 4.3 .0% .3% 5.5 .1% .1% 3.1 .2% 21.8 % % % % % % % 10000- 16 16 7 6 16 17 0 0 45 0 1 35 6 165 20000 1.4 1.4 .6% .5% 1.4 1.5 .0% .0% 4.0 .0% .1% 3.1 .5% 14.7 % % % % % % % 20000- 10 16 10 2 19 13 0 0 43 0 1 34 1 149 30000 0.9 1.4 .9% .2% 1.7 1.2 .0% .0% 3.8 .0% .1% 3.0 .1% 13.3 % % % % % % % 30000- 7 5 7 0 13 2 2 0 24 0 2 11 0 73 40000 0.6 0.4 0.6 .0% 1.2 .2% .2% .0% 2.1 .0% .2% 1.0 .0% 6.5% % % % % % % 40000- 4 6 0 2 8 1 0 0 12 1 0 16 1 51 50000 0.4 .5% .0% .2% .7% .1% .0% .0% 1.1 .1% .0% 1.4 .1% 4.5% % % % Above 4 1 4 0 19 2 0 0 13 0 0 9 0 52 50000 0.4 .1% .4% .0% 1.7 .2% .0% .0% 1.2 .0% .0% .8% .0% 4.6% % % % Don‟t 23 37 29 12 52 36 0 8 106 2 2 79 1 387 know 2% 3.3 2.6 1.1 4.6 3.2 .0% .7% 9.4 .2% .2% 7.0 .1% 34.5 % % % % % % % %

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Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122 7.8 8.6 6.7 2.5 14.1 10. .2% 1% 27. .4% .6% 19.5 1.0 100 % % % % % 6% 2% % % % Chi-Square test=45.495a, p-value=.005

5.5.4 Educational Consideration

Education is playing a paramount role in the selection of political party. To keep education under consideration in Table-87, among the total respondents of different educational levels, a major portion of post-graduate and graduate level respondents accepted that they have

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf membership. However, some of the respondents of secondary, higher secondary school level and illiterate respondents stated that they have PTI membership.

A major portion of graduate and post-graduate level respondents support Jamaat-i-

Islami. Some of the respondents of secondary and higher secondary level have JI membership. Moreover, a considerable number of illiterate respondents also have JI membership. Some of the respondents of secondary school level and illiterate respondents stated that they have JUI-F membership. While a small portion of graduate and post- graduate level respondents also supporting JUI-F.

Awami National Party (ANP) has a major portion of graduate and post-graduate level respondents‟ membership. Although some of the illiterate respondents have ANP membership. However, PPP membership distributed in graduate, post-graduate, secondary, higher secondary school level respondents. Some of the illiterate respondents have membership of Pakistan Peoples Party.

Conversely, some of graduate and post-graduate level respondents shows their disenchantment from political parties and regret any political party membership. Moreover, the dissatisfaction is found in some of the illiterate respondents about political parties. The

P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and party membership.

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Table No. 87 Political party membership Educatio PPP ANP PM QW JI JUI-F MQ JUI PTI PM Non Don‟t AP Tota nal L- P M -S AP e of know ML l qualificat N these ion Primary 4 8 10 4 9 14 0 1 16 0 2 11 0 79 .4% .7% .9% .4% .8% 1.2% .0% .1% 1.4 .0% .2% 1.0% .0% 7 % % Middle 4 4 4 2 17 9 0 2 31 1 0 12 3 89 .4% .4% .4% .2% 1.5 .8% .0% .2% 2.8 .1% .0% 1.1% .3% 7.9 % % % Matric 15 13 15 5 23 37 0 3 60 0 2 21 2 196 1.3 1.2 1.3 .4% 2.0 3.3% .0% .3% 5.3 .0% .2% 1.9% .2% 17.5 % % % % % % Intermedi 11 14 10 3 9 7 0 2 30 0 0 16 1 103 ate 1.0 1.2 .9% .3% .8% .6% .0% .2% 2.7 .0% .0% 1.4% .1% 9.2 % % % % BA/BSc 16 13 9 5 26 18 0 1 50 2 1 38 2 181 1.4 1.2 .8% .4% 2.3 1.6% .0% .1% 4.5 .2% .1% 3.4% .2% 16.1 % % % % % MA/MSc 17 22 14 5 44 9 2 0 77 1 1 73 3 268 1.5 2.0 1.2 .4% 3.9 .8% .2% .0% 6.9 .1% .1% 6.5% .3% 23.9 % % % % % % M.Phil 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 10 0 1 6 0 23 .2% .0% .0% .1% .2% .1% .0% .0% .9% .0% .1% .5% .0% 2% Illiterate 18 22 13 3 28 24 0 2 31 0 0 42 0 183 1.6 2.0 1.2 .3% 2.5 2.1% .0% .2% 2.8 .0% .0% 3.7% .0% 16.3 % % % % % % Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122 7.8 8.6 6.7 2.5 14. 10.6 .2% 1% 27.2 .4% .6% 19.5% 1% 100 % % % % 1% % % % Chi-Square Test=1.443E2a, p-value=.000

5.5.5 Regional Consideration

Political party membership position is different in each geographical regions of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. In Table-88, among the respondents of different geographical regions of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa PTI have a major share of membership in north followed by central

and southern regions. However, JI have largest support from northern and southern regions.

JUI-F has a significant membership from southern regions. On the other hand, JUI-F

has a slight support from northern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. ANP has the largest 141

membership in the central geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Some of the

respondents of northern and southern regions also have membership of Awami National

Party. Pakistan Peoples Party has the biggest support from northern region of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. Some of the respondents of center and southern regions have membership of

the PPP.

On the other hand, we have found a large number of respondents in northern

regions who denied the membership of any political party. However, some of the

respondents of central and southern regions also reject any political party membership. The

P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association

between the geographical regions of the respondents and party membership.

Table No. 88 Political party membership Geogra PPP ANP PM QW JI JUI-F MQM JUI- PTI PM None Don‟t AP Total phical L- P S AP of know ML Region N these North 42 15 14 11 51 13 0 2 126 0 1 95 10 380 3.7 1.3% 1.2 1.0 4.5 1.2% .0% .2% 11. .0% .1% 8.5% .9% 33.9 % % % % 2% % Center 20 58 38 12 46 21 1 2 83 1 2 76 0 360 1.8 5.2% 3.4 1.1 4.1 1.9% .1% .2% 7.4 .1% .2% 6.8% .0% 32.1 % % % % % % South 25 23 23 5 61 85 1 7 96 3 4 48 1 382 2.2 2.0% 2.0 .4% 5.4 7.6% 0.1% 0.6 8.6 0.3 0.4% 4.3% .1% 34% % % % % % % Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122 7.8 8.6% 6.7 2.5 14.1 10.6 0.2% 1% 27. 0.4 0.6% 19.5% 1% 100 % % % % % 2% % % Chi-Square Test= 3.858E2a, p-value=.000

5.6 SWITCHING NEW POLITICAL PARTY ACCORDING TO THE

CIRCUMSTANCES (POLITICAL AND SOCIAL)

Hansen and Jansen (2007) argued that political parties are regarded as „service-providers‟.

Political parties deliver services in the exchange of voters support in election. If a party

delivers services for the good of community the voters will support the same political party 142

in the next election. In case if a party could not deliver any good services to the community the voter usually switch to the other political parties in the coming election. However,

Lipset and Rokkan (1967) stated that an individual vote to that candidate or political party who they believe will serve their social class interest better.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa we can see fluctuations in the political parties vote bank in each election. It is assumed that voters are more strategic and rational in party selection. To identify the voters‟ perception about party switching, a question was asked, “Should we change political party according to the circumstances? The response of voters is correlated with controlled variables (i.e., gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions).

5.6.1 Gender Consideration

Table-89 shows the perception of male and female respondents about the party switching. A significant number of male and female respondents agree to change the political party according to the circumstances. However, a large number of male and female respondents disagree to change the political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances.

Table No. 89 We should change political party according to the circumstances? Gender Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total Disagree know some extent large extent Male 121 169 91 196 48 625 10.8% 15.1% 8.1% 17.5% 4.3% 55.8% Female 71 137 145 106 37 496 6.3% 12.2% 12.9% 9.5% 3.3% 44.2% Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=42.688a, p-value=.000

5.6.2 Age Consideration As far as age is concerned, among the respondents of different age groups, some of the adults, middle and old age respondents agree to switch a political party according to the circumstances. However, a large number of the youngsters, middle and elders refused to

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change political party according to the circumstances. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances (See Table No.90).

Table No.90 We should change political party according to the circumstances? Age Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to some Agree to a Total Disagree know extent large extent 18-23 31 56 42 65 15 209 2.8% 5% 3.7% 5.8% 1.3% 18.6% 23-27 36 50 42 52 21 201 3.2% 4.5% 3.7% 4.6% 1.9% 17.9% 27-32 43 53 37 48 16 197 3.8% 4.7% 3.3% 4.3% 1.4% 17.6% 32-37 23 39 36 34 10 142 2.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 0.9% 12.7% 37-42 22 44 34 38 8 146 2.0% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% 0.7% 13% 42-50 14 28 29 35 10 116 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 0.9% 10.3% Above 23 36 16 30 5 110 50 2.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2.7% 0.4% 9.8% Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=21.680a, p-value=.598

5.6.3 Professional Consideration

In terms of profession a large number of business community and daily wagers said that we should switch a political party according to the circumstances. Some of the government employees, non-government servants, housewives and jobless respondents agree to switch political parties according to circumstances.

On the other hand, we have found a major portion of government employees shows their difference to switch political party according to the situation. However, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, NGOs employees and unemployed respondents disagree to change political party according the circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances (See Table No.91).

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Table No. 91 We should change political party according to the circumstances? Profession Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total Disagree know some large extent extent 16 30 16 38 10 110 Business 1.4% 2.7% 1.4% 3.4% 0.9% 9.8% 9 21 19 36 9 94 Daily wage 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.8% 8.4% 58 54 41 46 14 213 Government Servant 5.2% 4.8% 3.7% 4.1% 1.2% 19.0% 30 37 26 45 13 151 Non-government servant 2.7% 3.3% 2.3% 4% 1.2% 13.5% 10 23 10 30 5 78 Farming 0.9% 2.1% 0.9% 2.7% 0.4% 7.0% 35 53 28 46 15 177 Unemployed 3.1% 4.7% 2.5% 4.1% 1.3% 15.8% 34 88 96 61 19 298 Housewives 3% 7.9% 8.6% 5.4% 1.7% 26.6% 192 306 236 302 85 1121 Total 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=73.288a, p-value=.000

5.6.4 Income Consideration

In Table-92 among the total respondents of different income levels, the largest number of low income group agreed to switch a new political party according to the circumstances.

Nonetheless, a small number of low middle, upper middle and upper class income class respondents stated that a political party should be change according to the circumstances.

Contrary to that, a significant number of lower, middle and upper income class respondents disagree to switch political party according to the circumstances. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances.

Table No.92 We should change political party according to the circumstances? Monthly Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a large Total Income Disagree know some extent extent Below 41 61 41 82 20 245 10,000 3.7% 5.4% 3.7% 7.3% 1.8% 21.9% 10000- 28 44 29 49 14 164 20000 2.5% 3.9% 2.6% 4.4% 1.2% 14.6% 20000- 25 40 34 40 10 149 30000 2.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.6% 0.9% 13.3% 30000- 16 21 10 18 8 73 40000 1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 6.5% 40000- 5 17 8 18 3 51 50000 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1.6% 0.3% 4.5% Above 22 12 5 12 1 52 145

50000 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 4.6% Don‟t 55 111 109 83 29 387 know 4.9% 9.9% 9.7% 7.4% 2.6% 34.5% Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=58.484a, p-value=.000 5.6.5 Educational Consideration

In terms of education the highest number of post graduate level respondents shows a rational approach towards switching political parties. Therefore, a large number of post graduate level respondents said that political party should be switch according to the circumstances. Interestingly, a significant number of post graduate level respondents accepted to switch political parties. While, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and illiterate respondents argue that they are in favour of switching of political parties according to the political circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances (See Table

No.93).

Table No.93 We should change political party according to the circumstances? Educational Extremely Disagr Don‟t Agree to Agree to Total qualification Disagree ee know some a large extent extent Primary 11 23 18 19 7 78 1.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 7.0% Middle 9 18 18 39 5 89 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 3.5% 0.4% 7.9% Matric 26 58 45 48 19 196 2.3% 5.2% 4.0% 4.3% 1.7% 17.5% Intermediate 16 25 25 28 9 103 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 0.8% 9.2% BA/BSc 32 54 35 47 13 181 2.9% 4.8% 3.1% 4.2% 1.2% 16.1% MA/MSc 71 70 33 71 23 268 6.3% 6.2% 2.9% 6.3% 2.1% 23.9% M.Phil 6 6 3 7 1 23 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1% Illiterate 21 52 59 43 8 183 1.9% 4.6% 5.3% 3.8% 0.7% 16.3% Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=65.035a, p-value=.000

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5.6.6 Regional Consideration

In Table-94, among the total respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa, we have found a major portion of the southern and northern geographical

regions respondents who support the opinion that the political party should be change

according to the circumstances. On the other hand, a significant number of the respondents

of southern, central and northern zones respondents who disallow the opinion to change

political party according to the circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is

highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the

respondents and party switching according to circumstances.

Table No.94 We should change political party according to the situation? Geograp Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a large Total hical Disagree know some extent extent Region North 59 108 63 112 38 380 5.3% 9.6% 5.6% 10.0% 3.4% 33.9% Center 60 96 109 77 18 360 5.4% 8.6% 9.7% 6.9% 1.6% 32.1% South 73 102 64 113 29 381 6.5% 9.1% 5.7% 10.1% 2.6% 34.0% Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121 17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100% Chi-square test=35.405a, p-value=.000

5.7 RESPONDENTS PREDICTION ABOUT THE POLITICAL PARTY

CANDIDATE IN 2018 ELECTION

The core committees of different political parties decide to allot ticket to a candidate for

next election in a constituency. Core committee of a political party composed of senior,

experienced and active members. The members of core committee have consensus with

party leadership on ticket allotment. The core committee tries to review the political

scenario of the constituency and the political strength of the contesting candidates.

Sometimes the core committee allots ticket to those candidates who are financial stable

while sometime a political party selects a tribal elder. The core committees of different

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political parties are adopting a pragmatic strategy in election tickets allotment. Therefore, those contesting candidate who are more active and have more sacrifices for a political party but financially weak are often sideline in election. However, the personal interest of the members of core committee is also playing a key role in tickets allocation. For example, in NA-8 Charsadda the national assembly candidate Jahanzeb Khan Dakki who secured third largest vote bank in 2013 election is sideline in 2018 election because the core committee member support Malak Anwar Taj. Janhanzeb Khan Dakki is one of the pioneers of PTI in Charsadda. After 2013 election he actively organized several party meeting in different villages of Charsadda. Maybe the leadership of political party believes on low cost and more profit policy. Nevertheless party ticket allotment is a herculean task for the leadership of party and core committee.

On the other hand, voter is also very conscious about the selection of a single candidate or party among others in a constituency. The partisans already decide to whom they will vote in election but for non-partisans it is a brainstorming job. Party voters always believe that the party he has affiliation will win the coming election. The prediction about the victory of a political party also shows the party attachment. To know the perception of the respondents about political parties in next election, the researcher asked that, “In your opinion which political party candidate should win the 2018 general elections from your constituency? The reaction of the respondents correlated with gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions.

5.7.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned a large number of male and female respondents predict that the next victorious candidate will be from PTI in their constituency. However, a significant number of male and female respondents predict about the victory of religious political parties. Some of the male and female respondents predict about ANP in 2018 election. A small number of male and female respondents foresee PML-N and PPP. The data found that 148

in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa MQM is unpopular political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the

respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018

election (See Table No.95).

Table No.95 Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election Gen PPP ANP PML QW JI JUI- MQM JUI PTI PMA Indepe don‟t AP Tota der -N P F -S P ndent know ML l Mal 42 75 42 23 81 86 1 3 190 3 13 56 4 626 e 3.7 6.7 3.7 2.0 7.2 7.7 0.1% 0.3 16. 0.3% 1.2% 5% 0.4 55.8 % % % % % % % 9% % % Fem 44 49 48 12 64 39 1 8 137 3 13 68 7 496 ale 3.9 4.4 4.3 1.1 5.7 3.5 0.1% 0.7 12. 0.3% 1.2% 6.1% .6% 44.2 % % % % % % % 2% % Tota 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 112 l 2 7.7 11.1 8% 3.1 12.9 11.1 0.2% 1% 29. 0.5% 2.3% 11.1 1% 100 % % % % % 1% % % Chi-square test=28.787a, p-value=.007

5.7.2 Age Consideration

In Table-96, the largest number of adults and young age respondents foresee the victory of

PTI in General Elections 2018. However, a significant number of middle and aged

respondents predict about the religious political parties (JI, JUI-F and S). Regardless of that

some of the young and aged respondents guess the victory of PPP and ANP in 2018 election

in their respective constituencies. The findings of the data show that PTI is most popular

party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be in 2018 election.29 The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the

respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018

election.

29 In general election 2018, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf emerged the victorious political party and formed government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 149

Table No.96 Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election Age PPP ANP PML- QWP JI JUI- MQ JUI PTI PMA Indepe don‟t AP Total N F M -S P ndents know ML 18- 4 24 15 8 25 22 0 3 76 2 5 22 3 209 23 .4% 2.1% 1.3% .7% 2.2 2.0 .0% .3% 6.8 .2% .4% 2.0% .3% 18.6 % % % % 23- 19 18 19 4 12 19 1 4 68 1 2 31 1 201 27 1.7 1.6% 1.7% .4% 1.1 1.7 .1% .4% 6.1 .1% .2% 2.8% .1% 17.9 % % % % % 27- 13 15 21 9 17 24 0 0 69 1 5 20 2 197 32 1.2 1.3% 1.9% .8% 1.5 2.1 .0% .0% 6.1 .1% .4% 1.8% .2% 17.6 % % % % % 32- 14 24 12 2 20 16 0 1 36 1 2 14 1 143 37 1.2 2.1% 1.1% .2% 1.8 1.4 .0% .1% 3.2 .1% .2% 1.2% .1% 12.7 % % % % % 37- 13 18 9 3 21 18 0 1 38 0 6 15 2 146 42 1.2 1.6% .8% .3% 1.9 1.6 .0% .1% 3.4 .0% .5% 1.3% .2% 13% % % % % 42- 12 8 8 2 21 13 1 1 27 0 4 15 1 116 50 1.1 .7% .7% .2% 1.9 1.2 .1% .1% 2.4 .0% .4% 1.3% .1% 10.3 % % % % % Abo 11 17 6 7 29 13 0 1 13 1 2 7 1 110 ve 1% 1.5% .5% .6% 2.6 1.2 .0% .1% 1.2 .1% .2% .6% .1% 9.8% 50 % % % Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122 7.7 11.1 8% 3.1% 12.9 11.1 .2% 1% 29.1 .5% 2.3% 11.1% 1% 100% % % % % % Chi-square test=1.226E2a, p-value=.001

5.7.3 Professional Consideration

In terms of profession, among the total respondents of different professional groups the

largest number of jobless, government and non-government employees foresees the success

PTI candidate in 2018 election. However, the major portion of housewives foresees PPP

candidate victory in 2018 election. We have found majority of government servants and

housewives who expect the victory of ANP candidate in the coming election. Moreover, a

significant number of government servants, housewives and jobless respondents predict

religious political parties‟ candidate in their respective constituencies in 2018 election. The

P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association

between the profession of the respondents and prediction about the victory of different

political parties candidates in 2018 election.

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Table No.97 Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election Profession PPP ANP PML- QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI- PTI PMAP Indep don‟t APML Total N S know Business 10 11 3 6 10 14 0 0 29 2 5 18 1 110 0.9% 1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 9.8% Daily wage 7 9 10 3 10 17 0 4 27 0 0 6 2 95 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 8.5% Government 14 23 14 5 43 19 1 1 57 0 5 25 3 213 Servant 1.2% 2% 1.2% 0.4% 3.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 19% Non- 13 18 16 5 10 7 1 0 57 1 4 18 0 151 government 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.6% 0.0% 13.5% servant Farming 4 10 6 5 9 16 0 0 22 1 0 4 0 78 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7% Unemployed 11 15 13 3 16 24 0 1 63 1 5 23 2 177 1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 1.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.4% 2% 0.2% 15.8% Housewife 27 38 28 8 47 28 0 5 72 1 7 30 3 298 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 0.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% 6.4% 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 0.3% 26.6% Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122 7.7% 11.1% 8.0% 3.1% 12.9% 11.1% 0.2% 1% 29.1% 0.5% 2.3% 11.1% 1% 100% Chi-square test= 1.153E2a, p-value=.004

5.7.4 Income Consideration

In terms of income, Table-98 shows that majority of the lower income class respondents

expecting victory for the PTI candidate in their constituency in the coming election 2018.

Interestingly, a major portion of lower income class predicts the victory of religious

political parties (JUI and JI) in General Elections 2018. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a huge

number of the voters of lower income class are supporting religious political parties. While

majority of the lower income class predict the PPP candidate‟s victory in 2018 election. The

data results show that, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa PPP is a popular political party among

lower income class. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which

shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and prediction about

the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018 election.

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Table No.98 Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election Monthly PP AN PML Q JI JUI- MQ JUI PTI PMA Indep don‟t APM Tota income P P -N WP F M -S P enden know L l t Below 17 15 25 7 24 50 0 2 69 1 4 25 1 245 10,000 1.5 1.3 2.2 .6% 2.1 4.5 .0% .2% 6.1 .1% .4% 2.2% .1% 21.8 % % % % % % % 10000- 14 21 5 8 14 22 0 0 47 0 4 22 7 165 20000 1.2 1.9 .4% .7% 1.2 2.0 .0% .0% 4.2 .0% .4% 2.0% .6% 14.7 % % % % % % 20000- 9 18 11 6 16 15 0 1 41 2 8 19 1 149 30000 .8% 1.6 1.0 .5% 1.4 1.3 .0% .1% 3.7 .2% .7% 1.7% .1% 13.3 % % % % % % 30000- 6 8 11 1 13 2 2 0 24 1 1 3 1 73 40000 .5% .7% 1.0 .1% 1.2 .2% .2% .0% 2.1 .1% .1% .3% .1% 6.5 % % % % 40000- 4 10 2 2 10 1 0 1 10 0 0 10 1 51 50000 .4% .9% .2% .2% .9% .1% .0% .1% .9% .0% .0% .9% .1% 4.5 % Above 4 3 4 1 19 2 0 0 16 0 1 2 0 52 50000 .4% .3% .4% .1% 1.7 .2% .0% .0% 1.4 .0% .1% .2% .0% 4.6 % % % Don‟t 32 49 32 10 49 33 0 7 120 2 8 43 0 387 know 2.9 4.4 2.9 .9% 4.4 2.9 .0% .6% 10. .2% .7% 3.8% .0% 34.5 % % % % % 7% % Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122 7.7 11. 8.0 3.1 12.9 11.1 .2% 1.0 29. .5% 2.3% 11.1 1.0% 100. % 1% % % % % % 1% % 0% Chi-square test= 1.824E2a, p-value=.000

5.7.5 Educational Consideration

In Table-99, among the total respondents a significant number of secondary school level, graduate and post graduate respondents foresee the victory of PTI candidate in their respective constituencies. While a significant ratio of illiterate respondents expect PTI candidate in the next election. On the other hand, a great number of graduate and post graduate respondents predicts the ANP and JI victory in General Elections 2018. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018 election.

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Table No.99 Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election Educati PP ANP PML QWP JI JUI- MQ JUI- PTI PM Indep don‟t APM Tota on P -N F M S AP enden know L l t Primary 8 11 6 3 8 15 0 1 17 0 0 8 0 79 0.7 1% 0.5 0.3% 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.0% .7% .0% 7% % % % % % % % % Middle 5 6 8 3 11 13 0 1 27 1 3 8 2 89 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3% 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.1 2.4 0.1 0.3% .7% 0.2% 7.9 % % % % % % % % % % Matric 14 18 15 4 20 35 0 4 64 2 3 15 1 196 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.4% 1.8 3.1 .0% 0.4 5.7 0.2 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 17.5 % % % % % % % % % Interme 10 18 10 5 7 5 1 1 31 1 4 7 1 103 diate .9% 1.6 0.9 0.4% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.8 0.1 0.4% .6% 0.1% 9.2 % % % % % % % % % BA/BSc 7 18 11 9 24 21 0 1 54 1 5 25 3 181 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.8% 2.1 1.9 .0% 0.1 4.8 0.1 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 16.1 % % % % % % % % % MA/MS 21 28 23 5 47 12 1 1 82 0 6 37 3 268 c 1.9 2.5 2.0 0.4% 4.2 1.1 .1% .1% 7.3 .0% .5% 3.3% 0.3% 23.9 % % % % % % % M.Phil 2 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 12 0 1 3 0 23 .2% .1% .0% .2% .1% .1% .0% .0% 1.1 .0% .1% .3% .0% 2.0 % % Illiterate 19 24 17 4 27 23 0 2 40 1 4 21 1 183 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.4% 2.4 2.0 .0% 0.2 3.6 0.1 0.4% 1.9% 0.1% 16.3 % % % % % % % % % Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122 7.7 11.1 8% 3.1% 12.9 11.1 0.2 1% 29.1 0.5 2.3% 11.1 1% 100 % % % % % % % % % Chi-square test= 1.123E2a, p-value=.064

5.7.6 Regional Consideration

In terms of geographical region, Table-100 shows that a major portion of the respondents of

northern geographical zones foresee the success of PTI in the next election. However, a

major portion of the central geographical zones expecting ANP success in 2018 election.

Although, a large number of the respondents of southern regions predict religious political

parties victory in General Elections 2018. The results show that religious political parties

popular in southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square

test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the

respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018

election.

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Table No.100

Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election

Geographic PPP ANP PML QW JI JUI- MQ JU PTI P Any Indep Don AP Total al Region -N P F M I-S M other ‟t ML AP kno w

North 38 20 23 12 48 18 0 2 140 1 4 8 55 11 380

3.4 1.8% 2% 1.1 4.3 1.6 0.0 0.2 12.5 0.1 0.4% 0.7% 4.9 1% 33.9% % % % % % % % % %

Center 24 79 39 17 38 17 2 3 92 1 5 2 41 0 360

2.1 7% 3.5% 1.5 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.3 8.2 0.1 0.4% 0.2% 3.7 0.0 32.1% % % % % % % % % % %

South 24 25 28 6 59 90 0 6 95 4 1 16 28 0 382

2.1 2.2% 2.5% 0.5 5.3 8% 0.0 0.5 8.5 0.4 0.1% 1.4% 2.5 0.0 34% % % % % % % % % %

Total 86 124 90 35 14 125 2 11 327 6 10 26 124 11 1122 5

7.7 11.1 8% 3.1 12. 11.1 0.2 1 29.1 0.5 0.9% 2.3% 11.1 1% 100% % % % 9 % % % % % % % Chi-square test= 4.397E2a, p-value=.000

Summary The findings of the study presented different results to those of Farmanullah and Islam

(2014) who argued that party identification is not a determinant of voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But the researcher found different statistics of partisan voters in

General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that shows that there is still a strong

partisanship. Moreover, Farmanulllah and Islam data collection was limited to a single

constituency of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but in this research study the data is collected from

three different geographical regions (i.e., North, Center and South) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The researcher tested the hypothesis of party identification on different variables. In

case of the first variable majority respondents accepted that they have membership of

different political parties. Secondly, a major portion of respondents‟ opines that vote should

be given on the basis of party affiliation. While the largest number of respondents showed

their affiliation to different political parties during survey. On the other hand, majority of

the respondents predicted the victory of different political parties in 2018 election. For

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example in Northern region PTI have great support while in southern region religious political parties (JUI-F) are dominant. However, in central geographical region ANP and

PPP got a major membership support. PPP is still a popular political party in the lower income class. While religious political parties have a major support in the illiterate respondents. On the basis of above findings we can generalize that party identification or party affiliation is still playing a strong role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan.

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CHAPTER – 6

ROLE OF THE PERSONALITY OF CANDIDATE IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013

6.1 INTRODUCTION Anthony Downs said that “a political party is a team of men seeking to control the governing apparatus by gaining office in a duly constituted election” (Downs, 1957:25). He pointed out that political party is a team of men; therefore in developing democracies, political parties are dominated by those men (personalities). In political science, importance is given to socio-cultural and economic forces that form political behaviour and attitude.

Jennings (1968, 1991) and Healy & Malhotra (2013) figured out the role of parental socialization in the formation of political attitudes of an individual. Iyengar & Kinder

(1987) highlighted the role of media in shaping political attitudes. On the other hand,

Fiorina (1981) and Huckfeldt and Sprague (1995) study identified the importance of social networks and the economy. Hobbs et al. (2014) Tilley & Hobolt (2011) argued that government performance and personal experience of an individual influence his/er political attitudes and choice.

However, Giddens (1998) and Caprara et al. (1999, 2002) observed the importance of personality politics in many democracies. Caprara & Zimbardo (2004) figure out that the personalization of politics covers two processes; first, the personality of candidate captures central position and become the focus of voters‟ interest, and secondly, the voters own personality, becomes more important and decisive for political choice. Wattenberg‟s (1998) study illustrated that some factors change the individual political attitude. In some cases, the diversity, and boundaries of political parties may weaken the parties support among the voters. Consequently, the space covered by personality-oriented politics. In the following passage, the role of the personality of a candidate on voter‟s political choice is examined in the light of data.

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The Five Factor Model (FFM)30 of personality is a factor analytic research. Costa-Jr. and McCrae (2012) argued that FFM model traits consist of, “Openness to Experience,

Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism”. It is widely used a framework for the classification and determining the main dimensions of personality

(Goldberg, 1992). The FFM model does not cover all those dimensions in which an individual differentiate their own personality and other person‟s personality. The good qualities of a person that influence the other people are, creativity, vision, curiosity, experienced, thoughtful and have ground-breaking ideas.

Many scholars argued that the individual who has leadership qualities are generally,

“talkative, energetic, enthusiastic, assertive, outgoing and sociable” (Hiel and Mervielde,

2004; Barnea and Schwartz, 1998; Carney et al., 2008; Gosling et al., 2003; Jost et al.,

2007; McCrae, 1996). Robert McCrae argued that “variations in experiential „Openness‟ are the major psychological determinant of political polarities” (McCrae, 1996:325). In addition, Caprara et al. (1999) figure out the center-left voters have relatively more

„Openness‟ than center-right voters.

On the other hand, Mehrabian (1996) and Stenner (2005) observed that conservatives are more conscious and caring than liberals. Caprara et al. (1999) sort out that liberal electorates in Italy have a higher level of „Agreeableness‟ than conservatives.

6.2 INFLUENCE OF CANDIDATE PERSONALITY ON VOTER

The FFM model is used in economics and political science. Almlund et al. (2011) Ozer et al. (2006) linked FFM model to economics and Gerber et al. (2011) Mondak & Halperin

(2008) Mondak (2010) use it in political science. It is assumed that a „Powerful Congruency

Principle‟ of the personality of a voter and their political leaders explain why voter support

30 The Five-Factor Model of personality (FFM) is a set of five wide trait dimensions, often referred to as the “Big Five”: that includes Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness to Experience. (For detail see Digman, John M. (1990). Personality Structure: Emergence of the five-factor model. Annual Review of Psychology 41.1: 417-440. And Soto, C. J., & Jackson, J. J. (2013). Five-factor Model of Personality. UK: Oxford University Press.) 157

that particular candidate (Caprara and Zimbardo, 2004:590). The „Congruence Principle‟ is defined as; a voter matches his own personality with contesting candidate personality. If a voter found similar qualities in contesting candidate personality then he preferred to vote that candidate (Caprara et al., 2002; Roets & Van Hiel, 2009; Vecchione, Castro, &

Caprara, 2011). However, the „Congruence Principle‟ between the personality traits of contesting candidates and electorates brought them close to each other during the election.

Caprara et al. (2003) said that in Italy the „Rightist‟ political leaders secured higher support because of „Conscientiousness‟ and „Extraversion‟ while „Leftist‟ political leaders did not get such support. Caprara and Zimbardo (2004) describe the significance of personality in shaping electoral attitudes.

Converse (1964) and Zaller & Feldman, (1992) presented top-down process theory.

They argued that „top-down processes‟ affect political ideology. Jost et al. (2009:316) elucidate that in the top-down process common people inspire from the elite class ideological position. Therefore, a large number of common voters support those political ideologies which are already prevailed in society. Jost et al. (2009) also pointed out the role bottom-up process in shaping political ideology. In bottom-up process demonstrated the role of an internal psychological force of an individual‟s ideological position. Jost et al., (2003) describe that conservatives refuse to accept changes in the socio-political structure.

Conservative voters are more rigid, orderliness, self-discipline, and self-control. However, liberals are more flexible, open-minded than conservatives. Therefore, Jost et al. (2003) argued that personality traits have a direct impact on ideology. However, Block & Block

(2006) and Fraley et al. (2012) studies prove the significance of bottom-up processes in the shaping of political ideology of an individual.

Duckitt & Sibley (2010) and Duckitt (2001) presented the impact of Dual-Process

Motivational (DPM) Model on political ideology. DPM Model explains that top-down and bottom-up developments influence the ideology of a person. The proponents of Dual-

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Process Motivational (DPM) model supporting the relationship between political attitudes and personality of an individual. However, Campbell et al., (1960) and McClosky (1958) studies also supported the relationship between personality traits and political attitudes. On the other hand, McClosky empirically tested the association of individual personality and political attitudes (McClosky, 1958: 40).

In Pakistan, electoral politics is personalized and political parties are dominated by a few families. Likewise, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) under the control of

Sharif family, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) dominated by Bhutto‟s and now Zardari family,

Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-Islam-F (JUI-F) controlled by Mufti Mehmood family, Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-

Islam-S (JUI-S) by Maulana Sami-Ul-Haq family and so on. Muhammad Waseem

(2006:108) argues that under the present electoral laws, candidate with a small fraction of voters could be elected, and therefore, elections became personality oriented. In Pakistan, personalities are bridging the voters with political parties.

In 1985, Martial Law Administrator General Zia holds a non-party election, and consequently, political parties were not allowed to contest the election, but only independent candidates can contest the election. The non-party election introduced new faces who were belonging to the landed aristocracy and business class. After the 1985 non- party election, the personality role strengthened in electoral politics (Awan, 2016). In

Pakistan generally and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly the personality of candidate has more influence on the voter choice. The most prominent personalities in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa are Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, Asfandiyar Wali Khan, Maulana Fazl-Ur-

Rehman, Mian Nisar Gul, Khalid Khan Mohmand, Saleem Saifullah, Anwar Saifullah,

Humayun Saifullah and Amir Haider Khan Hoti, Akram Khan Durani, Mehtab Abbasi,

Pervez Khatak, Bilor family, Amin Ali Gandapor, Sher Azam Wazir, Pir Sabir Shah, Amir

Muqam, Inayat Ullah Khan, Jamshed Khan Mohmand, Zia Ullah Afridi etc that have a dominant role in the politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

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Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, who is a popular politician of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has personal influence in NA-8 Charsadda. In 2002, Aftab Sherpao left Pakistan Peoples

Party and established his own political party named Pakistan Peoples Party-Sherpao group.

He won the NA-8 seat in general elections 2002. In General Elections 2008, again he won the NA-8 seat with majority votes. After 2008 election the party leadership renamed PPP-S by Qaumi Watan Party. In General Elections 2013, Aftab Sherpao contested election from

QWP platform and bagged victory in NA-8. This whole scenario shows that the personal influence of Aftab Sherpao is more than political party. However, in 2008 Pervez Khatak contested election on PPP ticket, while in December 2011 he left PPP on some political differences and switch to PTI. Pervez Khatak won the provincial assembly seat from

Nowshehra and became Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In General Elections 2008, Khalid Khan Mohmand contested election as independent candidate from PK-20 and secured the second position after ANP candidate.

However, in General Elections 2013, again he contested election as an independent candidate but at the very last time of election campaign he joined Qaumi Watan Party and won the PK-20 seat. Khalid Khan belonged to Mohmand tribe and majority of the voters of

PK-20 are Mohmand. Therefore, his personal influence and co-tribesmen support in election played a key role in his victory. In general election 2018, Khalid Khan left QWP and joined

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and again won the provincial assembly seat.

In this part of the chapter an attempt is made to identify the influence of contesting candidate on the voters. The dependent variable is correlated with other controlled variables. The correlation of all variables is given below.

6.2.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned (see in Table-101), some of male and some of female respondents avowed that vote should not be given on the basis of the candidate personality.

Conversely, a large number of male and female respondents argued that vote should be 160

given on the basis of candidate personality. However, a small number of male and female respondents were undecided about this statement. In Pakhtun society women are dependent on male family members. Therefore, their majority have tendency to support the personality of candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.

Table No.101 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Gender Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree know Agree Male 129 140 69 240 48 626 11.5% 12.5% 6.1% 21.4% 4.3% 55.8% Female 91 123 85 169 28 496 8.1% 11.0% 7.6% 15.1% 2.5% 44.2% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 12.012a, p-value=.017

6.2.2 Age Consideration

In Table-102, the correlation of the different age groups of respondent shows that, a small number of the adults, youngsters, middle and old age respondents denied to vote a candidate on the basis of personality. Conversely, we have found a major portion of adults, youth, middle and old age respondents who accepted that vote should be given to a candidate on the basis of personality. A small segment of adults, youth, middle age and old age respondents show an unclear response about the personality of candidate. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.

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Table No.102 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Age Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree 18-23 36 47 31 81 14 209 3.2% 4.2% 2.8% 7.2% 1.2% 18.6% 23-27 45 46 29 66 15 201 4.0% 4.1% 2.6% 5.9% 1.3% 17.9% 27-32 37 50 21 79 10 197 3.3% 4.5% 1.9% 7.0% 0.9% 17.6% 32-37 32 33 18 50 10 143 2.9% 2.9% 1.6% 4.5% 0.9% 12.7% 37-42 39 37 17 43 10 146 3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 3.8% 0.9% 13.0% 42-50 14 23 21 48 10 116 1.2% 2.0% 1.9% 4.3% 0.9% 10.3% Above 17 27 17 42 7 110 50 1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 0.6% 9.8% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=21.798a, p-value=.591

6.2.3 Professional Consideration Among the total respondents in Table-103, the major share of the respondents who denied the influence of the candidate‟s personality was housewives and government servants.

However, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, non-government servants, farmers and jobless respondents argued that they are not influence from the candidate‟s personality in election.

A significant number of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non- government servants, farmers, jobless and house wives acknowledged that they are influenced from the personality of the candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.

Table No.103 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Strongly Don‟t Strongly Profession Disagree Agree Total Disagree know Agree Business 20 31 16 31 12 110 1.8% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 9.8% daily wage 15 11 12 52 5 95 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 4.6% 0.4% 8.5% Government 54 53 32 56 18 213 Servant 4.8% 4.7% 2.9% 5.0% 1.6% 19.0% 162

Non- 43 42 9 51 6 151 government 3.8% 3.7% .8% 4.5% 0.5% 13.5% Farming 5 12 10 44 7 78 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 3.9% 0.6% 7.0% Unemployed 27 46 28 60 16 177 2.4% 4.1% 2.5% 5.3% 1.4% 15.8% Housewives 56 68 47 115 12 298 5% 6.1% 4.2% 10.2% 1.1% 26.6% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=75.903a, p-value=.000

6.2.4 Economic Consideration

Social class has always remained very debatable in social science‟s discourse. Some social scientists make its foundation only on economic strength of human life. However, others also place their argument for the constitution of class based on some crisscrossing tangible and intangible elements (income, education, environment, food, health, accommodation, education etc.) of human social life. The second argument is appealing for making a strong philosophical sense among social scientists while determining social class in human society.

Looking into the modern and global stratification system, social scientists determine social class as a composition of socio-economic stratification of the people into different groups

(Jakopovich, 2014). According to United Nations (UN) poverty indexing report if a person earn less than two (2$) US dollars per day are considered poor or lower income class. To keep UN poverty index report as a scale the researcher have made a stratification of different classes on the basis of monthly income in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Those people who have monthly income below 10000 PKR are considered lower class. While those whose monthly income is above 20000 to 50000 PKR is middle income class. Those respondents whose monthly income is above is 50000 PKR are tag upper income class.

As far as monthly income is concerned in Table-104, a major portion of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income and a quantity of lower and lower middle class income disagree to vote a candidate on the basis of his personal influence. A meager number of middle and upper class respondents rejected the opinion that vote should 163

be given on the basis of personality influence of candidate. However, a large number of lower income class respondents expressed that vote should be given on the basis of personality influence. Nonetheless a tiny portion of middle and upper class respondents believed that vote should be given on the basis of personality of candidate. Moreover, a large number of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income accepted the opinion that vote should be given on the basis of personality of the candidate. The P- value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the income of the respondents and influence of candidate personality. Among the total respondents, those respondents who have lowest monthly income were in majority to support the candidate personality.

Table No. 104 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Monthly Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total income Disagree e know Agree Below 10,000 47 54 26 102 16 245 4.2% 4.8% 2.3% 9.1% 1.4% 21.8% 10000-20000 34 41 15 58 17 165 3.0% 3.7% 1.3% 5.2% 1.5% 14.7% 20000-30000 27 38 21 50 13 149 2.4% 3.4% 1.9% 4.5% 1.2% 13.3% 30000-40000 18 13 12 26 4 73 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 2.3% 0.4% 6.5% 40000-50000 13 14 8 13 3 51 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 4.5% Above 50000 12 16 2 19 3 52 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.6% Don‟t know 69 87 70 141 20 387 6.1% 7.8% 6.2% 12.6% 1.8% 34.5% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=29.890a, p-value=.188

6.2.5 Educational Consideration In terms of education (see in Table-105), among the respondents majority of graduate and post-graduate level respondents were against the personality vote. While, some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents were also expressed their opinion against personality influence. Moreover, we have found a quantity of illiterate respondents who were against the influence of personality vote. 164

Conversely, some of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post-graduate and illiterate respondents were in favour of personality vote. Majority of illiterate respondents supported the personality of candidate. That shows their low level of political education. The illiterate people did not read the newspaper and even they have no understanding of politics. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.

Table No.105 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Educational Strongl Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total qualification y e know Agree Disagr ee Primary 19 14 10 27 9 79 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 7% Middle 13 19 15 35 7 89 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 0.6% 7.9% Matric 33 37 24 96 6 196 2.9% 3.3% 2.1% 8.6% 0.5% 17.5% Intermediate 17 32 12 31 11 103 1.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2.8% 1% 9.2% BA/BSc 39 45 26 58 13 181 3.5% 4.0% 2.3% 5.2% 1.2% 16.1% MA/MSc 74 79 27 72 16 268 6.6% 7.0% 2.4% 6.4% 1.4% 23.9% M.Phil 6 3 4 8 2 23 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2% Illiterate 19 34 36 82 12 183 1.7% 3.0% 3.2% 7.3% 1.1% 16.3% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=72.999a, p-value=.000

6.2.6 Regional Consideration

In Table-106, region wise opinion of the respondents regarding the personality vote, among the total respondents some of the respondents of central region expressed their opinion against the personality vote. However, the ratio of personality vote‟s support was higher in northern and southern regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Besides that, among the total respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa we have found major ratio of the central region‟s support to personality vote. Some of the respondents of 165

southern and northern regions were also in favour of the personality vote. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.

Table No. 106 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? Geograp Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total hical Disagree e know Agree Region North 92 132 48 82 26 380 8.2% 11.8% 4.3% 7.3% 2.3% 33.9% Center 52 63 68 150 27 360 4.6% 5.6% 6.1% 13.4% 2.4% 32.1% South 76 68 38 177 23 382 6.8% 6.1% 3.4% 15.8% 2.0% 34% Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122 19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=1.920E2a, p-value=.000

6.3 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STATUS OF THE CANDIDATE

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa majority of the people is belonging to lower or middle income class. The common voters are facing several economic issues. Therefore, voters trusted on those candidates who are economically sound. It is assumed that the voters support economically strong candidates in elections because those candidates are economically supporting poor people. Secondly, the candidate economic and political influence will help them in the solution of their socio-economic problems. Likewise, Aftab Ahmad Khan

Sherpao provided jobs to a large number of the people of NA-8 (now NA-23) Charsadda.

Therefore, the whole family of the job holder is supporting Aftab Sherpao in election. MPA

Alamzeb Umarzai who belonged to a poor family but a large number of people of PK-22 was supporting him in General Elections 2008 (ECP, 2008). The voters supported Alamzeb

Umarzai because of his services to the society. MPA Maulana Muhammad Idrees who was

MMA candidate in General Elections 2002 won the election because he is a religious cleric and Muntazim of a Madrassa. However, in General Elections 2013, Maulana Musammir

Shah of JUI-f secured the second largest votes in NA-8. In General Elections 2013, unlike other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Maulana Gohar Shah of JUI-F won the NA-7 seat and 166

defeated ANP president Asfandiyar Wali Khan (ECP, 2013). The religious factor of the personality of a candidate is also convincing the voting behaviour of the people in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. The question asked about the political and economic influence personality of the candidate is correlated with the gender, age, profession, education, income and geographical region. The correlations are given in the following sections.

6.3.1 Gender Consideration

Table-107 shows that, among the total respondents, we have found a major share of male and female respondents disagree to vote economically and politically influential candidates.

Conversely, among the total respondents some of male and female respondents argued that vote should be given to economically sound candidates. However, a small portion of male and female respondents were undecided. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.

Table No.107 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Gender Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree e know Agree Male 204 220 56 112 34 626 18.2% 19.6% 5% 10% 3% 55.8% Female 131 159 75 101 30 496 11.7% 14.2% 6.7% 9% 2.7% 44.2% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test=14.431a, p-value=.006

6.3.2 Age Consideration

Age has great influence on the political opinion of an individual, as the age increases the maturity level of an individual is also growing up. Table-108 shows that, respondents of different age group have different opinion regarding the economic soundness and political strength of the candidate. Among the total respondents a large number of adult and youth disagree to support a financially and politically strong candidate in election. However, some

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of the middle and old age respondents have similar opinion to oppose economically and politically strong candidates in election.

Some of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents considered that vote should be given to the economically sound and political strong candidates in election. The P- value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.

Table No.108 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Age Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree 18-23 62 78 25 36 8 209 5.5% 7% 2.2% 3.2% 0.7% 18.6% 23-27 60 66 26 34 15 201 5.3% 5.9% 2.3% 3% 1.3% 17.9% 27-32 60 69 14 40 14 197 5.3% 6.1% 1.2% 3.6% 1.2% 17.6% 32-37 45 41 16 35 6 143 4.0% 3.7% 1.4% 3.1% 0.5% 12.7% 37-42 47 47 18 23 11 146 4.2% 4.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.0% 13.0% 42-50 25 43 16 25 7 116 2.2% 3.8% 1.4% 2.2% 0.6% 10.3% Above 36 35 16 20 3 110 50 3.2% 3.1% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 9.8% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19.0% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test=21.851a, p-value=.588

6.3.3 Professional Consideration

The correlation of the professional affiliation of respondents (see in Table-109), a major portion of government employees, housewives, non-government servants and jobless respondents were of the opinion that vote should not cast to a rich and politically influential candidates. Some of the businessmen, daily wagers, government servants and farmers believe that vote should not give to wealthy candidates.

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Apart from that, among the respondents a small portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, housewives and jobless respondents argued that vote should be given to economically sound candidate. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.

Table No.109 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Profession Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agre Strongly Total Disagree ee know e Agree Business 36 38 10 18 8 110 3.2% 3.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 9.8% Daily-wager 16 39 11 25 4 95 1.4% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 0.4% 8.5% Government 76 71 25 28 13 213 Servant 6.8% 6.3% 2.2% 2.5% 1.2% 19.0% Non-government 53 53 14 23 8 151 4.7% 4.7% 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% 13.5% Farming 10 31 7 22 8 78 0.9% 2.8% 0.6% 2% 0.7% 7.0% Unemployed 62 53 24 28 10 177 5.5% 4.7% 2.1% 2.5% 0.9% 15.8% Housewives 82 94 40 69 13 298 7.3% 8.4% 3.6% 6.1% 1.2% 26.6% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test= 45.945a, p-value=.004

6.3.4 Economic Consideration

As far as economic status is concerned, among the total respondents a major portion of lower and lower middle income class and a large number of those respondents who annoyed to show their income stated that they are supporting the economically influential candidates in elections. Although some of the respondents of middle and upper income class agree to support the economically strong candidate (see in Table-110).

Regardless of that, among the respondents some of the lower, middle and upper income class respondents accepted to vote that candidate who is economically strong.

Moreover, a large portion of the respondents who are supporting the rich and wealthy candidates were those who did not mention their income. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi- 169

Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the monthly income of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.

Table No.110 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Monthly Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total income Disagree e know Agree Below 73 92 22 46 12 245 10,000 6.5% 8.2% 2.0% 4.1% 1.1% 21.8% 10000-20000 44 54 17 40 10 165 3.9% 4.8% 1.5% 3.6% 0.9% 14.7% 20000-30000 39 55 17 30 8 149 3.5% 4.9% 1.5% 2.7% 0.7% 13.3% 30000-40000 20 19 11 17 6 73 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 6.5% 40000-50000 16 17 7 10 1 51 1.4% 1.5% .6% 0.9% 0.1% 4.5% Above 50000 24 22 2 3 1 52 2.1% 2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% Don‟t know 119 120 55 67 26 387 10.6% 10.7% 4.9% 6% 2.3% 34.5% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test= 31.539a, p-value=.139

6.3.5 Educational Consideration

Education is playing an important role in the political awareness and shaping political attitudes of an individual. In terms of education, among the total respondents a large number of those respondents whose education levels are secondary school, graduate and post- graduate disagree to vote a candidate who are economically and political influential in the constituency. However, some of the primary and higher secondary school level said that they did not support the influential candidates in election. Among the total respondents the large ratio of illiterate respondents also denied to vote on the basis of strong economic status

(see in Table-111).

Apart from that, among the respondents some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post-graduate respondents said that they vote to a candidate who is economically and politically influential in the constituency. Nonetheless, some illiterate respondents expressed their opinion in favour of those candidates who are economically and

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politically prominent. The comparison of the literate and illiterate respondents shows that, an illiterate people opinion is completely different from the literate people regarding the selection of the candidate. The majority of the educated people are not supporting those candidates who are economically influential in the constituency but illiterate people support the influential candidates. Maybe the illiterate people trusted on the influential candidates because they expecting support (economical and other) in their locality. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.

Table No. 111 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Educational Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Qualification Disagree ee know Agree Primary 25 24 6 17 7 79 2.2% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 7.0% Middle 20 34 7 23 5 89 1.8% 3% 0.6% 2% 0.4% 7.9% Matric 43 63 28 48 14 196 3.8% 5.6% 2.5% 4.3% 1.2% 17.5% Intermediate 30 35 13 21 4 103 2.7% 3.1% 1.2% 1.9% 0.4% 9.2% BA/BSc 54 60 19 37 11 181 4.8% 5.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.0% 16.1% MA/MSc 114 94 24 23 13 268 10.2% 8.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.2% 23.9% M.Phil 8 8 2 5 0 23 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% Illiterate 41 61 32 39 10 183 3.7% 5.4% 2.9% 3.5% 0.9% 16.3% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test= 62.029a, p-value=.000

6.3.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a large number of the respondents of centre, north and southern regions considered that vote should be not given to economically and politically influential candidates. In opposition of this view, among the total respondents some of the respondents of center, south and northern

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geographical regions stated that they are supporting economically and politically strong candidate in the constituency. However, a meager portion of the respondents were unclear about their decision. A large number of the respondents of district Mardan and district

Chitral were favoring those candidates who are economically and politically stronger than other candidates. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate (See Table-112).

Table No. 112 Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. Geographic Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total al Region Disagree know Agree North 112 137 40 66 25 380 10.0% 12.2% 3.6% 5.9% 2.2% 33.9% Center 109 89 61 87 14 360 9.7% 7.9% 5.4% 7.8% 1.2% 32.1% South 114 153 30 60 25 382 10.2% 13.6% 2.7% 5.3% 2.2% 34.0% Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122 29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100% Chi-Square Test=38.423a, p-value=.000

6.4 CANDIDATE PARTICIPATION IN THE SOCIAL ACTIVITIES

In Pakhtun society it is assumed that, people are very sensitive about the social relations.

Those political figures that are actively participating in the funeral and wedding ceremonies of the common people they have more respect in community. There is a common perception among the people that those political leaders who are participating in the social activities of other people have more personal support in elections. It is very common that if candidate participate in the funeral or wedding ceremony of a single family member, he gets support of the whole family. Therefore, candidate participation in the social activities of common voters also improves his personal influence in that family or village. A question was asked from the respondents about the contesting candidate participation in the joy and sorrow

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(Gham aw Khadi) that is correlated with gender, age, qualification, income and geographical regions. The results of each correlation are discussed below.

6.4.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned (see in Table-113), among the total respondents, some of male and female respondents were against to vote a candidate on the basis of participation in the social activities like joy and sorrows. On the other hand, we have found a large share of male and female respondents who were in favour to support that candidate who joining the sorrows and joys of other people. However, a small portion of male and some of female voters were undecided. Gham aw Khadi (sorrow and joy) is an important element of

Pakhtunwali. Therefore, majority of the Pakhtuns are morally supporting that person who is active in the participation of Gham and Khadi in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates.

Table No.113

Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Gender Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree Male 58 91 44 277 156 626

5.2% 8.1% 3.9% 24.7% 13.9% 55.8% Female 34 65 71 219 107 496

3.0% 5.8% 6.3% 19.5% 9.5% 44.2% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122

8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% Chi-Square Test=18.024a, p-value=.001

6.4.2 Age Consideration

Among the respondent of different age categories, a small quantity of adults, youngsters, middle and old age considered that vote should not be given to those candidates who are socially active and participate in the joys and sorrows of common people. Nonetheless, among the respondents a considerable number of teenagers, youth, middle and senior

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respondents perceived that vote should be given to those contesting candidates who are joining us in the sorrows and joys (Gham aw Khadi). The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates (See Table No.114).

Table No.114 Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Age Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree know Agree 18-23 15 30 16 91 57 209 1.3% 2.7% 1.4% 8.1% 5.1% 18.6% 23-27 20 30 18 85 48 201 1.8% 2.7% 1.6% 7.6% 4.3% 17.9% 27-32 16 22 18 99 42 197 1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 8.8% 3.7% 17.6% 32-37 16 19 14 63 31 143 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 5.6% 2.8% 12.7% 37-42 6 26 17 54 43 146 .5% 2.3% 1.5% 4.8% 3.8% 13.0% 42-50 7 15 18 52 24 116 .6% 1.3% 1.6% 4.6% 2.1% 10.3% Above 50 12 14 14 52 18 110 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 4.6% 1.6% 9.8% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122 8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% Chi-Square Test=26.973a, p-value=.306

6.4.3 Professional Consideration

The correlation of the professional affiliation of respondents shows that, the tiny portion of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, jobless, government servants, non-government servants, housewives responded that vote should not give to those candidates who are participation is social activities of the common people. Apart from that, we have found some of businessmen, farmers and daily wagers agreed that vote should be not given to a candidate on the basis of participation in social activities. While a significant number of government servants, non-government servants, unemployed and housewives agree that vote should be given to those candidates who are participating is social activities. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the

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profession of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates (See Table

No.115).

Table No.115

Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Profession Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree know Agree Business 16 15 9 45 25 110 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 4.0% 2.2% 9.8% Daily wager 3 13 9 41 29 95 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 3.7% 2.6% 8.5% Government 20 40 24 81 48 213 Servant 1.8% 3.6% 2.1% 7.2% 4.3% 19.0% Non- 18 22 12 73 26 151 government 1.6% 2% 1.1% 6.5% 2.3% 13.5% servant Farming 8 8 7 30 25 78 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 2.7% 2.2% 7.0% Unemployed 12 22 12 86 45 177 1.1% 2.0% 1.1% 7.7% 4% 15.8% Housewives 15 36 42 140 65 298 1.3% 3.2% 3.7% 12.5% 5.8% 26.6% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122 8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% Chi-Square Test=41.507a, p-value=.015

6.4.4 Economic Consideration

As far as economic condition is concerned (see in Table-116), among the total respondents a some of the lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper class income level respondents said that they did not support a candidate who is socially active. Despite of that, among the respondents a large number of lowest income group said that vote should be given to that contesting candidate who participate in the joys and sorrows of the common people. However, some of the lower middle, middle, upper income class and a large number of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income asserted that vote should be given to that candidate who participates in social activities of the common people. The data describes a large number of the respondents of lower and lower middle income class who support the candidate who is regularly participating in the social activities. It is assumed that

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when a candidate participate in the social activity it is very easy for common people to meet him. However, some people consider it an honour to meet a political figure in their locality.

Moreover, if a candidate belongs to the same tribe or kinship, his participation is more appreciable in community. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the income of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates.

Table No.116 Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Monthly Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total income Disagree know Agree Below 16 30 22 102 75 245 10,000 1.4% 2.7% 2.0% 9.1% 6.7% 21.8% 10000- 9 24 18 75 39 165 20000 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 6.7% 3.5% 14.7% 20000- 18 22 11 66 32 149 30000 1.6% 2.0% 1.0% 5.9% 2.9% 13.3% 30000- 9 10 8 33 13 73 40000 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 2.9% 1.2% 6.5% 40000- 6 7 5 28 5 51 50000 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2.5% 0.4% 4.5% Above 7 13 2 20 10 52 50000 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 4.6% Don‟t know 27 50 49 172 89 387 2.4% 4.5% 4.4% 15.3% 7.9% 34.5% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122 8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% Chi-Square Test=34.558a, p-value=.075

6.4.5 Educational Consideration

In terms of education (See in Table-117), among the total respondents a small portion of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post graduate and illiterate rejected the perception that vote should be given on the basis of candidate participation in the social activities (Gham aw Khadi). On the other hand, among the respondents some of primary and higher secondary voters responded that vote should be given to that candidate who is participating the social activities of the common people. However, a significant number of secondary school, graduate and post graduate level respondents stated that vote should be 176

given to that candidate who are participating in social activities like sorrows and joys

(Gham aw Khadi). A large number of illiterate respondents were found who agreed that vote should be given to that candidate who participates in joy and sorrow of the common people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates.

Table No. 117 Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Education Strongly Disag Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ree know Agree Primary 10 3 15 31 20 79 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.8% 7.0% Middle 3 5 5 44 32 89 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 3.9% 2.9% 7.9% Matric 4 35 22 86 49 196 .4% 3.1% 2.0% 7.7% 4.4% 17.5% Intermedia 5 21 8 48 21 103 te .4% 1.9% .7% 4.3% 1.9% 9.2% BA/BSc 9 25 18 93 36 181 .8% 2.2% 1.6% 8.3% 3.2% 16.1% MA/MSc 44 47 13 111 53 268 3.9% 4.2% 1.2% 9.9% 4.7% 23.9% M.Phil 8 2 2 7 4 23 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% Illiterate 9 18 32 76 48 183 0.8% 1.6% 2.9% 6.8% 4.3% 16.3% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122 8.2% 13.9 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% % Chi-Square Test=1.229E2a, p-value=.000

6.4.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a considerable number of respondents of southern, central and northern geographical regions agreed that vote should be given to those contesting candidates who are participating in our sorrows and joys. On the other hand, a small portion of central, southern and northern geographical regions respondents rejected the idea to vote to a candidate on the basis of

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participation in the sorrows and joys of local people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region and the vote on the basis of candidate participation in sorrows and joys (See Table No. 118).

Table No.118 Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw Khadi)? Geographical Strongly Disagree Don‟t know Agree Strongly Total Region Disagree Agree North 39 57 29 175 80 380 3.5% 5.1% 2.6% 15.6% 7.1% 33.9% Center 29 54 46 169 62 360 2.6% 4.8% 4.1% 15.1% 5.5% 32.1% South 24 45 40 152 121 382 2.1% 4% 3.6% 13.5% 10.8% 34% Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122 8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100% Chi-Square Test=96.523a, p-value=.000

6.5 PARTY CANDIDATE VERSUS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE

There are two types of contesting candidates in elections in Pakistan. One is political party nominated candidates and the other is independent non-party candidates. After the announcement of election schedule or in the end of the government tenure the political parties issuing tickets to different candidates in different constituencies. Those candidates who are contesting elections they are actually representing the label of their own political parties. During election campaign, party candidates focusing on the party manifesto rather than personal program.

Independent candidates, during election campaign are trying to highlight the local issues and also use their personal influence in the constituency (Rais, 1985). However, the voters are also divided into two parts. One is party affiliated voters and the other is non- party voters. The party affiliated voters are those who have a strong attachment with a political party and they are supporting the program and manifesto. The non-party voter priorities are mostly their personal interests, local issues (road construction, drainage system, job, streets) etc. Sometimes those voters are supporting that candidate who has socio-economic and political influence in locality. The voters are expecting jobs,

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construction of roads and streets. Voters are also expecting the candidate support in the courts and police stations in difficult time. In this case, the personality of a candidate is playing a significant role to attract the voter during the election. A question asked from the respondents that, “vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.”

6.5.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned (See Table-119), among the total respondents a large segment of male and some of the female respondents perceived that they are supporting independent candidates rather than party candidate. However, some of the male and female respondents agreed that they vote to independent candidate rather than party candidate. A large number of female respondents claimed that vote should be given to independent candidates rather than party candidates that show the low level of political awareness of female respondents.

Latif et al (2015) argued that, “In a patriarchal society like Pakistan the participation of women in political arena is very much in connection with males and how they perceive their participation”. However, the constitution of Pakistan grants women free hand to participate in politics but the socio-cultural barriers restricted them. Maybe the female respondents don‟t know about the independent candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.

Table No.119 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Gender Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree Male 161 214 132 100 19 626 14.3% 19.1% 11.8% 8.9% 1.7% 55.8% Female 64 148 155 101 28 496 5.7% 13.2% 13.8% 9.0% 2.5% 44.2% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%

Chi-Square Test=42.937a, p-value=.000

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6.5.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories, a great number of adults and youth said that vote should be not given to an independent candidate. Although some of the middle and old age respondents disagree to vote an independent candidate rather than party candidate. Contrary to that, among the total respondents some of the adults, youth, middle and old age respondents agreed to vote independent candidate rather than party candidate.

The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate (See Table

No.120).

Table No.120 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Age Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree 18-23 36 75 46 37 15 209 3.2% 6.7% 4.1% 3.3% 1.3% 18.6% 23-27 42 60 56 35 8 201 3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% .7% 17.9% 27-32 33 72 51 35 6 197 2.9% 6.4% 4.5% 3.1% .5% 17.6% 32-37 38 44 29 28 4 143 3.4% 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% .4% 12.7% 37-42 28 41 42 28 7 146 2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% .6% 13.0% 42-50 21 34 35 20 6 116 1.9% 3% 3.1% 1.8% .5% 10.3% Above 27 36 28 18 1 110 50 2.4% 3.2% 2.5% 1.6% .1% 9.8% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100% Chi-Square Test=24.036a, p-value=.460

6.5.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned, a significant number of government and housewives disagree to support an independent candidate. While some of businessmen, daily wagers, non-government servants and farmers rejected the idea that vote should be given to independent candidate rather than dependent candidate. On the other hand, we have found a small ratio of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants,

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farmers, unemployed and housewives accepted the idea that vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate ( See in Table-121). The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.

Table No.121 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Profession Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree e know Agree Business 30 38 18 19 5 110 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 9.8% daily wagers 21 35 24 10 5 95 1.9% 3.1% 2.1% .9% 0.4% 8.5% Government 50 80 47 27 9 213 Servant 4.5% 7.1% 4.2% 2.4% 0.8% 19.0% Non- 21 50 43 33 4 151 government 1.9% 4.5% 3.8% 2.9% 0.4% 13.5% servant Farming 15 28 13 20 2 78 1.3% 2.5% 1.2% 1.8% 0.2% 7.0% Unemployed 43 51 42 30 11 177 3.8% 4.5% 3.7% 2.7% 1% 15.8% Housewives 45 80 100 62 11 298 4% 7.1% 8.9% 5.5% 1.0% 26.6% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100% Chi-Square Test= 49.145a, p-value=.002

6.5.4 Economic Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income (See Table-122), a large number of lower income class and those who did not mention their monthly income stated that vote should not be given to that candidate who contest election on party ticket rather than independent candidate. Nonetheless, some of the lower middle, middle and upper income class respondents also support the party candidates in election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Conversely, a small number of lower, middle and upper class candidate hold up the independent candidates in election. Moreover, a significant quantity of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income accepted that vote should be given to independent candidates rather than party candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly

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significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.

Table No.122 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Monthly Strongly Disagre Don‟t Agree Strongl Total Income Disagree e know y Agree Below 49 82 52 52 10 245 10,000 4.4% 7.3% 4.6% 4.6% 0.9% 21.8% 10000-20000 28 59 39 26 13 165 2.5% 5.3% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2% 14.7% 20000-30000 30 44 47 18 10 149 2.7% 3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 0.9% 13.3% 30000-40000 20 22 16 14 1 73 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 6.5% 40000-50000 9 21 13 8 0 51 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% .0% 4.5% Above 50000 19 24 5 4 0 52 1.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% .0% 4.6% Don‟t know 70 110 115 79 13 387 6.2% 9.8% 10.2% 7% 1.2% 34.5% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100% Chi-Square Test= 53.601a, p-value=.000

6.5.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See Table No. 123) a large number of post graduate respondents disagree to support independent candidate rather than party candidate in elections. However, some of the illiterate, primary, graduate, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents disagree to vote an independent candidate rather than party candidate.

A meager number of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post graduate level respondents agree to vote independent candidates. Moreover, some of the illiterate also agreed that vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.

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Table No.122 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Educational Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total qualification Disagree ee know Agree Primary 21 17 23 11 7 79 1.9% 1.5% 2% 1.0% 0.6% 7% Middle 18 34 13 17 7 89 1.6% 3.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 7.9% Matric 34 65 49 42 6 196 3.0% 5.8% 4.4% 3.7% 0.5% 17.5% Intermediate 26 29 18 26 4 103 2.3% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 0.4% 9.2% BA/BSc 35 59 50 30 7 181 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.7% 0.6% 16.1% MA/MSc 60 106 58 35 9 268 5.3% 9.4% 5.2% 3.1% 0.8% 23.9% M.Phil 9 3 5 6 0 23 .8% .3% .4% .5% .0% 2.0% Illiterate 22 49 71 34 7 183 2% 4.4% 6.3% 3% 0.6% 16.3% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100% Chi-Square Test= 68.495a, p-value=.000

6.5.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (see in Table-123), a considerable number of the respondents of northern, central and southern zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa rejected the idea that vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Conversely, a small number of the respondents of southern, central and northern regions accepted that vote should be given to independent candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.

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Table No.123 Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate. Geograp Strongly Disagree Don‟t know Agree Strongly Total hical Disagree Agree Region North 90 132 86 53 19 380 8% 11.8% 7.7% 4.7% 1.7% 33.9% Center 54 103 131 65 7 360 4.8% 9.2% 11.7% 5.8% 0.6% 32.1% South 81 127 70 83 21 382 7.2% 11.3% 6.2% 7.4% 1.9% 34% Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122 20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100% Chi-Square Test=48.184a, p-value=.000

6.6 THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORT ON VOTERS

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, many polling stations are located in far-flung areas. Therefore, some of the voters could not afford to go there and cast their vote (Rauf and Hassan, 2015).

A major portion of female voters did not cast their vote because of lack of transportation.

Eventually, the contesting candidates or political party provide transportation to those voters who are far-away from polling stations. It is also observed that non-party voters or those voters who decide to vote on polling day swayed to vote that candidate who provides transport. Those contesting candidates who provide transport facility on polling day are considered a positive sign of his/her personality. It is also believed that the particular candidate is economically stable. Those candidates who provide transport facility in that short time may also influence the non-party or floating voters‟ decision to vote.

To know the respondents' reaction on transportation facility provided to them on polling day a question was asked during a survey. The response of the voters is correlated with gender, age, profession, education, income and geographical regions.

6.6.1 Gender Consideration

As for as gender is concerned (See in Table-124), among the total respondents, a large number of men and women disagree to vote that candidate who provides transport in an election. However, some of the male and female agree to vote that candidate who can 184

provide transport facility on polling day. We can see some of the female voters who are supporting those candidates who can provide transport facility on election day. Otherwise, the female voters cannot go to cast their vote in a remote polling station. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No. 124 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Gender Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree know Agree Male 267 192 55 80 32 626 23.8% 17.1% 4.9% 7.1% 2.9% 55.8% Female 173 145 86 70 22 496 15.4% 12.9% 7.7% 6.2% 2.0% 44.2% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-square Test= 21.193a, p-value=.000

6.6.2 Age Consideration

In terms of age (See in Table-125), a large number of youngsters and middle age respondents argued that vote should be given to that candidate who provides transport facility on election day. While some of the youngsters, middle age and aged respondents agree to vote that candidate who provides transport. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No. 125 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Age Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree know Agree 18-23 83 58 14 38 16 209 7.4% 5.2% 1.2% 3.4% 1.4% 18.6% 23-27 81 56 25 26 13 201 7.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 17.9% 27-32 81 55 34 23 4 197 7.2% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.4% 17.6% 32-37 57 50 20 12 4 143 5.1% 4.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 12.7% 185

37-42 62 44 14 19 7 146 5.5% 3.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 13.0% 42-50 39 33 20 18 6 116 3.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.5% 10.3% Above 37 41 14 14 4 110 50 3.3% 3.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 9.8% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 35.615a, p-value=.060

6.6.3 Professional Consideration

Among the total respondents of different professional affiliation (See in Table-126), a huge number of government employees disagree to support that candidate who provides transportation on polling day. Maybe the government employees are economically independent and they afford to go polling station by their own expenditure. On the other hand, a significant number of non-government servants, housewives and unemployed respondents also disagree to vote those candidates who make available transportation.

However, some of the businessmen, jobless, housewives, government and non-government servants accepted to vote that candidate who offers transportation. The P-value<0.05 of the

Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No.126 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Profession Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree Business 44 32 17 11 6 110 3.9% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 9.8% daily wage 29 26 11 19 10 95 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 8.5% Government 104 71 21 12 5 213 Servant 9.3% 6.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 19.0% Non- 74 49 14 6 8 151 government 6.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 13.5% Farming 19 22 7 28 2 78 1.7% 2.0% 0.6% 2.5% 0.2% 7.0% Unemployed 73 49 21 26 8 177 186

6.5% 4.4% 1.9% 2.3% 0.7% 15.8% Housewives 97 88 50 48 15 298 8.6% 7.8% 4.5% 4.3% 1.3% 26.6% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30.0% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 93.953a, p-value=.000

6.6.4 Income Consideration

In terms of income (See in Table-127), a major portion of lower, middle and upper-income class respondents disagree to vote that candidate who provides means of transportation in an election. On the other hand, a significant number of the respondents of lower income class agree to vote that candidate who offers transportation on election day. It is observed that in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a considerable number of lower income class have weak political loyalties than upper-income class. Therefore, maybe to vote a candidate on providing transport is possible. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No. 127 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Monthly Strongly Disagree Don‟t Agree Strongly Total income Disagree know Agree Below 90 63 26 51 15 245 10,000 8.0% 5.6% 2.3% 4.5% 1.3% 21.8% 10000- 57 60 18 22 8 165 20000 5.1% 5.3% 1.6% 2.0% 0.7% 14.7% 20000- 79 42 18 7 3 149 30000 7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 13.3% 30000- 33 21 6 9 4 73 40000 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 6.5% 40000- 20 21 8 0 2 51 50000 1.8% 1.9% .7% .0% 0.2% 4.5% Above 30 15 2 4 1 52 50000 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4.6% Don‟t 131 115 63 57 21 387 know 11.7% 10.2% 5.6% 5.1% 1.9% 34.5% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-Square Test= 64.538a, p-value=.000

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6.6.5 Educational Consideration

As far as education is concerned (See Table-128), among the total respondents, a large number of post-graduate level respondents denied to vote a candidate on the basis of transportation on polling day. It shows that the education level of an individual improves his/er political maturity and prospects about politics. We can see a different perception of the highly educated respondents about the vote decision and illiterate respondents.

However, some of the educated and a large number of illiterate respondents agree to vote a candidate who can provide transportation for voters on election day. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No.128 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Education Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total Disagree ee know Agree Primary 31 19 14 7 8 79 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 7% Middle 27 26 9 19 8 89 2.4% 2.3% 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 7.9% Matric 65 56 23 42 10 196 5.8% 5% 2% 3.7% 0.9% 17.5% Intermediat 46 38 13 5 1 103 e 4.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 9.2% BA/BSc 78 56 22 17 8 181 7% 5% 2% 1.5% 0.7% 16.1% MA/MSc 139 87 19 12 11 268 12.4% 7.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1% 23.9% M.Phil 11 7 2 3 0 23 1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% .0% 2% Illiterate 43 48 39 45 8 183 3.8% 4.3% 3.5% 4.0% .7% 16.3% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=1.205E2a, p-value=.000

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6.6.6 Regional Consideration

The opinion of the respondents of different geographical regions in Table-129 shows that majority of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions denied to vote a candidate who provides transportation for voters on polling day. On the other hand, a small number of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions respondents agree to vote a candidate who offers transportation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.

Table No. 129 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. Geograp Strongly Disagr Don‟t Agree Strongly Total hical Disagree ee know Agree Region North 183 127 31 21 18 380 16.3% 11.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 33.9% Center 131 110 70 40 9 360 11.7% 9.8% 6.2% 3.6% 0.8% 32.1% South 126 100 40 89 27 382 11.2% 8.9% 3.6% 7.9% 2.4% 34.0% Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122 39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100% Chi-Square Test=91.473a, p-value=.000

Summary

In some of the developing countries, it is assumed that some political personalities are emerged in a short time because of authoritarian, non-democratic, personalized civilian and military laws. Like other developing countries of the globe, Pakistani politics and political parties are also personality oriented. Majority of the political parties are controlled by a few personalities. Apart from that, the socio-political and economic structure of developing societies is underdeveloped and instable. Therefore, their political values are moving around the influential personalities in a society. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, we can find a large number of political influential personalities in the political landscape. Therefore, the influence of personality is a very important determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber

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Pakhtunkhwa. In chapter Two, we can see that there are a large number of candidates who contesting elections independently from different constituencies. There are many independently elected candidates in different election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The votes of independent candidates are mostly based on their personal influence (social, political and economic) in the constituency.

Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality is operationalized through socio-economic and political variables. Among the total respondents, a large number of respondents said, that vote should be given on the basis of the personality of a candidate rather than political party. Secondly, a significant number of respondents agreed that the vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in the social activities (Gham aw Khadi) of common people. Thirdly, a significant number of respondents stated that the vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong. In the fourth indicator we have found some of the respondents who said that vote should be given to an independent candidate rather than political party. Moreover, we have found a large number of adults and young age respondents who are influenced by the personality of the candidate. Lastly, some of the respondents support a candidate because he provides transportation in election. The findings of the study depict that personality of candidate playing paramount role in determining the voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

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CHAPTER – 7

ISSUE VOTING MODEL

7.1 INTRODUCTION On some occasions, political preferences are made on the basis of issues rather than party affiliation and personality voting. In such cases, contesting candidates focus on the major issues in election campaigns. During election campaigns politicians sensitize the local issues and discuss it in public gatherings. These politicians present different stances about such issues. It is argued that an appealing stance towards an issue increases candidate‟s support in elections.

Adams & Samuel (2005) explored that issue voting model is one of the significant models of voting behaviour. Curtice (2002) and Lau and Redlawsk (2006) studies highlighted the importance of issue model voting. It is also opined that higher level of polarization in political parties strengthens the ratio of issue voting (Alvarez and Nagler,

2004). Political parties‟ are polarized on different local and national issues. As a result of that polarization, argues Lachat (2011), that elections are fragmented and polarized.

Similarly, political parties have a different approach towards the resolution of an issue. In

1970s, Pakistan People Party introduced nationalization program while Pakistan Muslim

League, Jama‟at-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI) and other political parties were against the nationalization program. Consequently, voters were also polarized, because the

PPP supporters were in favour of nationalization program and the rest were against it. Later on, PPP changed the nationalization policy because of the socio-economic and political developments in the country in 1990s.

In a multi-party system voters face a diversity of political parties who advocate different political positions on local and international issues. The competition in elections among political parties is tough if the number of actors involved is higher in the constituency. These facets of competitiveness among political parties are expected to make

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„issue voting‟ stronger in a community. Lachat (2011) stated that „issue voting‟ affects the political parties‟ mobilization strategies. He argued that political parties‟ manifestoes focus on issues rather than political ideology. Thomassen and Schmitt (1997) study also figures out that political issues play a centralized role in political representation. Besides, elections are considered as a bridge between masses and lawmakers (MNAs and MPAs). Powell

(2004) argued that the ideological relationship between voters and candidates is an essential criterion for the assessment of a political system and public interests. Lachat (2011) linked

„issue voting‟ with „Spatial Model‟ of voting behaviour. However, „Proximity Model‟ is applicable because in this model political parties usually try to increase vote bank.

Westholm (1997) explains „Proximity model‟ in which voters support those candidates who are closest in political space. There are two interpretations of closeness: firstly the candidate residence and secondly availability and accessibility. It is assumed that a common voter has limited information about parties‟ position on different issues. Therefore, uninformed voters invest limited cognitive resources in their political preferences (Zaller, 1992; Bartels, 1996).

Some voters are engaged in a rational comparison of the political parties‟ position on different issues while many voters depend on simple decision-making strategies about political choice. Lachat (2011) argued that electoral preferences are often directed by

„heuristics‟, that is, accessible facts about the political party and issues. A voter can easily evaluate the performance of a political party on a particular issue without processing bulky information. Lau and Redlawsk (2006) study figures out that many voters trust in the stereotypes about political parties and, therefore, support that party‟s candidate in elections.

Nevertheless, Conover (1985) explored that an important alternative is „single-issue voting.‟ Single issue voting is a simplified form of „issue voting,‟ where citizens focus only on the most important issue. Lau and Redlawsk (2006) identified a similar method of decision-making strategy, while Green‟s (2007) model of „Issue Ownership‟ points out that voting choice of voters is based on party capability to resolve the issue. The „single-issue

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voter model‟ is based on the voter decision to support a single political party because a voter supposes that party „A‟ has the ability to handle that issue properly as compared to other parties. In single-issue voter model, voter‟s political choice is based on issues where he/she does not require any evaluation of political parties.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the main issues are terrorism, militancy, insecurity, load- shedding, corruption, poverty, unemployment, illiteracy etc. The issue based voters try to identify a political party that can address all these issues remarkably. In General Elections

2013 the voters overwhelmingly supported Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), because its slogan was „Change.‟ The common people, thus, expected some drastic changes during PTI government. According to this explanation, if PTI fails to fulfill the expectation of the voters regarding these issues, another party might take the lead.

7.1.1 Political Parties and Issues Politics

Various research studies on party competition have highlighted selective issues politics in various countries. Similarly, many political parties‟ mobilization strategies focus on selective issues (Budge and Farlie, 1983). In fact, issue competition has a significant impact on voting, but question arises as to why a certain issue is more prioritized? John Petrocik‟s

„Issue Ownership Theory‟ may potentially answer this question. He opines, “a campaign effect exists when a candidate successfully frames the vote choice as a decision to be made in terms of problems facing the country that he is better able to handle than his opponent”

(Petrocik, 1996:826). Moreover, Ardoin (2013) argued that voters evaluate political party on the basis of past performance. On the other hand, “The Riding Wave Theory” illustrated that political parties primarily focus those issues that attract voters‟ attention in elections.

Ansolabehere & Iyengar (1994) argue that “candidates will pay more attention to the issues salient to the public, disregarding their ability to handle those issues”. Belanger & Meguid

(2008) and Mayer & Tiberj (2004) empirically tested the importance of issue salience and issue ownership theory. On the basis of this discussion we can say that issue ownership and 193

issue salience influence voting behaviour in different countries. This study attempts to identify the impacts of issues on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

7.2 ISSUE AND VOTE CHOICE IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Presently the main issues of Pakistan are terrorism, militancy, poverty, corruption, insecurity, unemployment, sectarianism, scarcity of drinking water, injustice, illiteracy, lack of health facilities and energy crisis (International Growth Services, 2017). Similarly, like other provinces of Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has many of these issues. During the election campaign, the contesting candidates highlight the local and national issues and offer a way out. Those contesting candidates who focus on local issues (constituency issues) get more support in their constituencies. Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) elections campaign started with „Change‟ and „Naya Pakistan‟ (new Pakistan).31 PTI leadership argues that

“Change as a buzzword was connected with President Obama, so we had to come up with a slogan that defined change” (Khan, 2013). The PTI candidates during election campaign speeches blamed both central and provincial governments as responsible for bad governance. They promised that they will bring administrative reforms in the organizational structures of the institutions. The chairman of Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan due to his previous philanthropist contribution to the society made a place in the hearts of the people. Therefore, in General Elections 2013, a large number of voters supported him and his party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Awami National Party‟s (ANP) manifesto focused on militancy and the question of provincial autonomy. During 2013 general elections,

Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan‟s (TTP) threats to ANP candidates and leadership limited their political activities and campaign (The Guardian, 14 April, 2013). As a result, ANP leadership could not get the opportunity to defend the party against the corruption allegations in election campaign. During the election campaign ANP could not demonstrate their performance by projecting their developmental works properly in Khyber

31 For details see Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf manifesto 2013. 194

Pakhtunkhwa. In general elections 2013, Jamiat-Ulema-Islam-(F) candidates promised the voters that they would protect Islam and introduce „Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. Jamaat-i-Islami

(JI) also published a twenty nine (29) reforms agenda addressing issues like unemployment, feudal system, terrorism, lawlessness, education etc (Dawn, April 5, 2013). Similarly,

Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), Qawmi Watan Party (QWP), Pakistan People Party

(PPP) and other political parties also designed their manifestos and rhetoric on the local and national issues. Alongside, the party candidates and various independent ones also campaigned on the issues of constituency only.

7.3 RESPONDENTS AND ISSUES IDENTIFICATION

Since 9/11 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is one of the vulnerable provinces of Pakistan. As a result of US-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan and the region affected the economic, social and political fabrics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These negative impacts of war against terror provided ways to different issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The most prominent issues of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in this period comprised militancy, load-shedding (energy crisis), unemployment, poverty, injustice, corruption etc. Anthony Downs (1957) argues that voters‟ cognition about the issues provides them the basis to decide to vote a political party or candidate who can resolve these issues. The researchers asked about the local and national issues from the respondents. A significant number of respondents reacted that more than five kinds of issues were still present in our society.

Among the total respondents 27% said that terrorism was the main issue of the society while 10% as corruption. Similarly, 6% unemployment, 6% load-shedding (energy crisis), 8% poverty, and 10% illiteracy as the main issues facing the society. Moreover, 33% respondents agreed that in the given list they have more than five issues in their locality. In figure-1 opinions of the respondents are shown in percentage.

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Figure-3

Terrorism 27%

More than five issues 33%

Corruption 10%

Illiteracy 10%

Load-Shiding Poverty 6% Unemployment 8% 6%

To know the perception of the respondents the researcher asked that, “Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis”.

The response is correlated with the gender, age, profession, income, marital status education, geographical regions.

7.3.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned (See in Table-130), among the total respondents a major portion of male respondents and female respondents said that, the vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis.

However, a minor portion of male and female respondents denied voting to a political party on the basis of local issues. Majority of the male and female respondents agree that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the gender of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

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Table No. 130 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Gender Disagree know Agree 12 18 33 282 281 626 Male 1.1% 1.6% 2.9% 25.1% 25.0% 55.8% 9 17 36 219 215 496 Female .8% 1.5% 3.2% 19.5% 19.2% 44.2% 21 35 69 501 496 1122 Total 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test=2.260a, p-value=.688

7.3.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories, a large number of adults and youth believed that vote should be given to those political parties who can eliminate the local and national issues. While a significant number of middle age and elders also said that, the vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate terrorism, poverty, ignorance and energy crisis (See in Table No. 131).

Contrary to that, a minor portion of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents denied to vote a political party on the basis of local issues. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

Table No. 131 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Extremely Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Age Disagree Disagree know Agree 8 7 8 96 90 209 18-23 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 8.6% 8.0% 18.6% 2 6 19 82 92 201 23-27 0.2% 0.5% 1.7% 7.3% 8.2% 17.9% 2 7 21 84 83 197 27-32 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 7.5% 7.4% 17.6% 3 6 8 65 61 143 32-37 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 5.8% 5.4% 12.7% 1 5 8 71 61 146 37-42 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 6.3% 5.4% 13% 2 0 2 55 57 116 42-50 0.2% .0% 0.2% 4.9% 5.1% 10.3% 3 4 3 48 52 110 Above 50 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.3% 4.6% 9.8% 21 35 69 501 496 1122 Total 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test= 32.983a, p-value=.104

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7.3.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned (See in Table-132), a large number of government servants, non-government servants, jobless and housewives proclaimed that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues. However, some of the Businessmen, daily wagers and farmers agreed that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.

A minor portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non- government servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives disagreed that vote should be given to a political party on the basis of elimination of local issues. The P-value>0.05 of the

Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the profession of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

Table No.132 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Profession Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremel Total Disagree know y Agree Business 4 10 8 45 43 110 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 4.0% 3.8% 9.8% Daily wager 2 4 8 45 36 95 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 4.0% 3.2% 8.5% Government Servant 2 8 9 98 96 213 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 8.7% 8.6% 19.0% Non-government 1 1 9 65 75 151 servant 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 5.8% 6.7% 13.5% Farmers 0 2 3 41 32 78 .0% 0.2% 0.3% 3.7% 2.9% 7.0% Unemployed 5 3 14 72 83 177 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 6.4% 7.4% 15.8% Housewives 7 7 18 135 131 298 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 12.0% 11.7% 26.6% Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test=33.985a, p-value=.085

7.3.4 Income Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income groups (See in Table-133), a significant number of lower and middle income class respondents said that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis. However, a minor portion of upper income class also stated that vote should be given to that political 198

party that can poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis. Moreover, a huge number of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income responded that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.

Conversely, a minor portion of lower, middle and upper class respondents said that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the local issues. A major portion of the respondents whose monthly income was below 10,000 and those who did not mention their monthly income were favouring the political parties on the basis of issues.

The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the income of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

Table No. 133 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Monthly Extremely Disag Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Income Disagree ree know Agree Below 10,000 4 12 17 106 106 245 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 9.4% 9.4% 21.8% 10000-20000 3 6 8 73 75 165 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 6.5% 6.7% 14.7% 20000-30000 0 4 12 73 60 149 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 6.5% 5.3% 13.3% 30000-40000 1 2 7 31 32 73 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 2.8% 2.9% 6.5% 40000-50000 2 0 2 28 19 51 0.2% .0% 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 4.5% Above 50000 0 2 1 22 27 52 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2% 2.4% 4.6% Don‟t know 11 9 22 168 177 387 1% 0.8% 2% 15% 15.8% 34.5% Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test=21.596a, p-value=.603

7.2.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-134), a large number of graduates, post graduate and secondary school level respondents stated that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis. Likewise, some of primary, higher secondary school level respondents 199

agreed to vote that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues of

Pakistan. Beside the educated respondents a huge number of illiterate respondents also agreed that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.

A meager portion of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post graduate level respondents denied voting a political party on the basis of elimination of local issues. In the data we have found a large number of the illiterate respondents opined that they support that political party that can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

Table No. 134 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Extremel Disagr Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Educational qualification y ee know Agree Disagree 5 4 5 34 31 79 Primary 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 3% 2.8% 7% 0 7 3 52 27 89 Middle 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 4.6% 2.4% 7.9% 3 12 21 79 81 196 Matric 0.3% 1.1% 1.9% 7% 7.2% 17.5% 3 3 13 31 53 103 Intermediate 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.8% 4.7% 9.2% 3 1 8 78 91 181 BA/BSc 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 7% 8.1% 16.1% 5 6 9 118 130 268 MA/MSc 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 10.5% 11.6% 23.9% 0 0 0 9 14 23 M.Phil 0.0% .0% .0% 0.8% 1.2% 2% Illiterate 2 2 10 100 69 183 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 8.9% 6.1% 16.3% Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test= 78.770a, p-value=.000

7.2.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa presented in

Table-135, a major share of the respondents of southern regions stated that vote should be to that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues. Although a significant 200

number of the respondents of central and northern regions accepted that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the local issues.

In contrary to that, a minor portion of the respondents of southern, central and northern differ to vote a political party on the basis of elimination of local issues and national issues. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.

Table No. 135 Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Geographic Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremely Total al Region Disagree know Agree 15 3 22 157 183 380 North 1.3% 0.3% 2.0% 14.0% 16.3% 33.9% 4 9 20 153 174 360 Center 0.4% 0.8% 1.8% 13.6% 15.5% 32.1% 2 23 27 191 139 382 South 0.2% 2.0% 2.4% 17.0% 12.4% 34% 21 35 69 501 496 1122 Total 1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100% Chi-square test=43.525a, p-value=.000

7.4 VOTING ON THE BASIS OF LOCAL (CONSTITUENCY) ISSUES

The advocates of „Issue Ownership Theory‟ of voting opined that voters recognize the political party that can resolve a particular issue and they recognize the competency of that party in connection with a particular issue in a constituency. Therefore, voters support that political party in election (Belanger and Meguid, 2008). The researcher asked from the respondent about the political party s/he voted in General Elections 2013, that whether, „We need to vote that political party which can resolve the issues of our constituency. The reaction of the respondents are correlated with gender, age, profession, education, income and geographical regions.

7.4.1 Gender Consideration

In terms of gender (See in Table-136), among the total respondents, a huge number of male and female respondents said that we need to support that political party that can resolve the

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problems of our area. However, some of the male and female respondents denied the support of a political party that can resolve the problems of our constituency. Majority of the male and female respondents opined that we need to vote that political party that can resolve the problems of our constituency. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.

Table No. 136 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Gender Extremel Disagre Don‟t Agree Extremel Total y e know y Agree disagree 34 37 33 298 224 626 Male 3.0% 3.3% 2.9% 26.6% 20.0% 55.8% 14 20 43 245 174 496 Female 1.2% 1.8% 3.8% 21.8% 15.5% 44.2% 48 57 76 543 398 1122 Total 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100% Chi-square test=11.263a, p-value=.024

7.4.2 Age Consideration

The age of an individual is playing an important role in shaping his/er political insight.

Among the total respondents, the highest ratio of the adults and youth stated that political party which can resolve the problems of constituency should support in election. However, a considerable number of middle age and elders agreed that vote should be given to that political party that can solve the problems of the constituency (See Table No. 137).

However, among the total respondents a meager number of adults, middle and old age respondents have a different view and they oppose to support that political party that can resolve the local issues. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.

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Table No. 137 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Age disagree know Agree 10 7 17 102 73 209 18-23 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 9.1% 6.5% 18.6% 6 19 13 95 68 201 23-27 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 8.5% 6.1% 17.9% 9 8 14 95 71 197 27-32 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 8.5% 6.3% 17.6% 9 7 9 72 46 143 32-37 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 6.4% 4.1% 12.7% 2 6 9 69 60 146 37-42 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 6.1% 5.3% 13.0% 6 2 11 51 46 116 42-50 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.5% 4.1% 10.3% 6 8 3 59 34 110 Above 50 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 5.3% 3.0% 9.8% 48 57 76 543 398 1122 Total 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100% Chi-square test=27.991a, p-value=.260

7.4.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned (See in Table-138), a large number of government servants, non-government servants, jobless respondents and housewives opine that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the issues of the local constituency.

However, a significant number of the businessmen, daily wagers, farmers alleged that they are supporting those political parties that can resolve the local problems.

A tiny portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives rejected that vote should be given to that political party that resolve the problems of constituency. The data shows that a large number of the unemployed, government servants and housewives responded that we need to vote that political party that can eradicate the problems of our constituency. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between profession of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.

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Table No. 138 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Extreme Disagre Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Profession ly e know Agree disagree 6 9 8 47 40 110 Business 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 4.2% 3.6% 9.8% 7 10 10 39 29 95 Daily-wagers 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 3.5% 2.6% 8.5% 11 12 19 97 74 213 Government Servant 1.0% 1.1% 1.7% 8.6% 6.6% 19.0% 4 5 13 74 55 151 Non-government servant 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 6.6% 4.9% 13.5% 3 3 4 33 35 78 Farmers 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 2.9% 3.1% 7.0% 5 6 8 99 59 177 Unemployed 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 8.8% 5.3% 15.8% 12 12 14 154 106 298 Housewives 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 13.7% 9.4% 26.6% 48 57 76 543 398 1122 Total 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100% Chi-square test=31.494a, p-value=.140

7.4.4 Income Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income (See in Table-139), we have found a major share of the lower class respondents and those who did not mention their monthly income agree to vote that political party that can resolve the local issues of constituency.

Nonetheless, a sizeable number of lower middle, middle and upper income class voters responded that vote should be given to that political party that can resolve the problems of the constituency.

Contrary to that, a meager number of lower, lower middle, middle and upper income class respondents denied voting to that political party that can resolve the problems of the area. Majority of the respondents whose monthly income were below 10,000 reacted that vote should be given to that political party that can resolve the problems of the constituency. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between monthly income of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.

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Table No. 139 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremely Total Monthly Income disagree know Agree 11 15 18 118 83 245 Below 10,000 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 10.5% 7.4% 21.8% 7 9 15 83 51 165 10000-20000 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 7.4% 4.5% 14.7% 9 12 12 59 57 149 20000-30000 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 5.3% 5.1% 13.3% 2 3 6 35 27 73 30000-40000 0.2% 0.3% .5% 3.1% 2.4% 6.5% 1 2 1 30 17 51 40000-50000 0.1% 0.2% .1% 2.7% 1.5% 4.5% 3 1 1 28 19 52 Above 50000 0.3% 0.1% .1% 2.5% 1.7% 4.6% 15 15 23 190 144 387 Don‟t know 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 16.9% 12.8% 34.5% 48 57 76 543 398 1122 Total 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100% Chi-square test=20.028a, p-value=.695

7.4.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels, a large number of secondary school, graduate and post graduate degree holders stated that vote should be given to that political party that resolve the issues faced by constituency. However, some of the primary, higher secondary school level respondents agreed to vote that political party that can eliminate the local issues. Moreover, a major part of the illiterate respondents said that they support that political party that resolves the local problems (See in Table-140).

A small number of the respondents whose qualification is primary, secondary school, higher secondary, graduate, post graduate and illiterate denied to support that political party that resolve the local problems . On the other hand, majority of the illiterate respondents are issue voters. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between educational qualification of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.

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Table No. 140 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Educational Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree Extremely Total qualification disagree know Agree 7 8 4 29 31 79 Primary 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.6% 2.8% 7% 3 5 6 39 36 89 Middle 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 3.5% 3.2% 7.9% 10 11 23 100 52 196 Matric 0.9% 1% 2% 8.9% 4.6% 17.5% 5 5 9 56 28 103 Intermediate 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 5.0% 2.5% 9.2% 6 9 8 89 69 181 BA/BSc 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 7.9% 6.1% 16.1% 11 10 14 129 104 268 MA/MSc 1% 0.9% 1.2% 11.5% 9.3% 23.9% 2 1 0 11 9 23 M.Phil 0.2% 0.1% .0% 1% 0.8% 2% 4 8 12 90 69 183 Illiterate 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 8.0% 6.1% 16.3% 48 57 76 543 398 1122 Total 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100% Chi-square test=37.720a, p-value=.104

7.4.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, majority of northern, central and southern regions accepted that they vote to that political party that can resolve the problems of the area. In contrary to that, a small number of central, southern and northern geographical regions respondents said that they did not support that political party who can resolve the problems of the constituency. The Chi-square test provides highly significant p-value. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems (See Table No. 141).

Table No.141 We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency. Geographical Extremely Disagree Don‟t know Agree Extremely Total Region disagree Agree 101 56 49 146 28 380 North 9% 5% 4.4% 13% 2.5% 33.9% 57 62 46 170 25 360 Center 5.1% 5.5% 4.1% 15.2% 2.2% 32.1% 137 78 44 78 45 382 South 12.2% 7.0% 3.9% 7% 4% 34% 295 196 139 394 98 1122 Total 26.3% 17.5% 12.4% 35.1% 8.7% 100% Chi-square test=81.608a, p-value=.000

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7.5 ISSUE OWNERSHIP AND POLITICAL PARTIES

According to „Issue Ownership Theory‟ various parties focus on different local and national issues. Lefevere, Tresch and Walgrave (2015) argued that the basic idea of this theory is that voters associate certain issues with certain parties. In European countries, it is suppose that, the issue immigration belonging to (radical) right political parties, social security is considered a Socialist/Social-Democrat parties and environmental issue owned by „Green‟

Political Parties (Petrocik, 1989).

Although, when a party owns an issue, it is perceived by the voters that particular political party having issue-specific policy expertise. Consequently, those voters expecting that party „A‟ has the competence to handle that particular issue. For example, Democrats are always reflects on health care issues and Republicans stress on defense and national security issues in the United States of America (Petrocik, 1996). However, many voters are supporting the political parties because of their capability to handle the local and national issues. Political parties are trying to highlight their performance to resolve those issues in public meetings regularly. Sometimes, they are highlighting the internal issues of party, to seek the support of the voters. As a result, „Issue ownership Theory‟ assumes that political parties will focus on getting the support of the voters.

Terrorism is one of the main issues of Pakistan and its neighboring countries. As a result of 9/11 attacks on twin towers, US and its allies attack on Afghanistan to root out terrorist organizations. Consequently, terrorism and militancy grow up in Pakistan generally and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particular. Terrorism affected the socio-political and economic sectors of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Ahmad, 2010). More than 70,000 thousand murdered

(including children, women and men) and thousands people injured. In 2013 election terrorism is the most important issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

However, poverty is also a major issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to the

Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), the poverty level in 2011-13 was 49.1% which

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increased to 49.2% in 2014-15 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. United Nations declare that person a poor who could not earn two (2$) dollars per day is living below the poverty line. There are different causes of poverty like unemployment, diseases, population, illiteracy, lack of development and natural disasters etc. (flood, earthquake). In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it is believed that voters are supporting those political parties that can eradicate poverty from the society.

Energy crisis and illiteracy are the next important issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Energy is playing a significant role in the socioeconomic development of a society.

Therefore, it is essential to run the factories and industrial units and powering our vehicles etc. Pakistan is facing the severe energy crisis. The main reason is the lack of serious efforts for energy generation. Besides the industrial sector, energy crisis affects the life of a common man. Load-shedding in summer is a big issue in Pakistan. In 2013 elections, some political parties promised the voters that they will solve this issue if they come into power.

Likewise energy crisis, illiteracy is also a major issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

S. R. Mehboob (2011) study figures out that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has the lowest literacy in Pakistan. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the gross enrollment ratio is also lower than other provinces. Unfortunately, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has an insufficient ratio of primary, middle and high schools. The people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa now realize the importance of education and they believe that education is the solution of all problems.

Therefore, they expecting from law makers to introduce free and quality education in the country.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the voters considered different political parties handle the issues. Researcher asked from the respondents that, which political party can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. The response of the voters is correlated with controlled variables i.e. gender, age, profession, education, monthly income and geographical regions.

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7.5.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned, (See Table-142), among the total the highest ratio of male

respondents trusted on Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to liberate society from poverty,

ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. While some of the male also trusted on JUI-F, JI,

PPP and ANP also to set free the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy

crisis. However, a significant number of male respondents renounce that any political

parties can eliminate these issues from society.

Among the total respondents, a large number of female respondents also expected

PTI to eliminate the issues. However, some of the female respondents believed that JI, PPP,

ANP and PML-N liberate the society from poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.

A large number of the male and female respondents showed their reliance on different

political parties that they can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis but

some of them disagreed with them. The Chi-square test provides insignificant p-value. The

P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association

between gender and expectation from different political parties to liberate society from

issues.

Table No.142 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis? Gender PPP ANP PML- QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI- PTI PMAP APML Indep. None Don‟t Total N S of Know these 61 54 49 17 67 78 0 2 170 2 2 7 116 1 626 Male 5.4% 4.8% 4.4% 1.5% 6% 7% 0.0% 0.2% 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 10.3% 0.1% 55.8% 47 43 43 15 62 36 1 5 140 1 0 15 87 1 496 Female 4.2% 3.8% 3.8% 1.3% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.4% 12.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 7.8% 0.1% 44.2% 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 2 22 203 2 1122 Total 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2% 18.1% 0.2% 100% Chi-square test= 19.013a, p-value=.123

7.5.2 Age Consideration

The opinion of the different age group regarding the different political parties a large

number of adults and youngsters expected PTI that can eliminate poverty, ignorance,

terrorism and energy crisis from the province. Majority of the youth still trust on PTI to

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eliminate the issues ahead. However, some of the middle age expected PTI, PPP, JI, ANP,

JUI-F and PML-N to liberate society from the present issues. Some of the elders also

expected PTI, JI, PPP and ANP to eliminate the issues from the society. Conversely, some

of the adults, middle and old age respondents argued that there is no political party that can

rid the society from the present crisis. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly

significant which shows an association between age and expectation from different political

parties to liberate society from issues.

Table No.143 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis? Age PPP ANP PM QW JI JUI- MQM JUI- PTI PMAP None Indep Don‟ AP Total L-N P F S of . t ML these Kno w 18- 16 15 22 4 23 23 0 4 63 1 35 3 0 0 209 23 1.4 1.3% 2.0 .4% 2.0 2.0 .0% .4% 5.6% .1% 3.1% .3% .0% .0% 18.6 % % % % % 23- 14 13 18 7 11 22 0 0 72 1 40 3 0 0 201 27 1.2 1.2% 1.6 .6% 1.0 2.0 .0% .0% 6.4% .1% 3.6% .3% .0% .0% 17.9 % % % % % 27- 16 20 11 9 22 22 0 0 62 1 30 3 1 0 197 32 1.4 1.8% 1.0 .8% 2.0 2.0 .0% .0% 5.5% .1% 2.7% .3% .1% .0% 17.6 % % % % % 32- 15 15 13 4 14 17 0 1 34 0 26 3 0 1 143 37 1.3 1.3% 1.2 .4% 1.2 1.5 .0% .1% 3.0% .0% 2.3% .3% .0% .1% 12.7 % % % % % 37- 18 15 11 3 16 14 0 0 37 0 26 5 0 1 146 42 1.6 1.3% 1.0 .3% 1.4 1.2 .0% .0% 3.3% .0% 2.3% .4% .0% .1% 13.0 % % % % % 42- 16 7 8 1 17 7 1 1 27 0 26 4 1 0 116 50 1.4 .6% .7% .1% 1.5 .6% .1% .1% 2.4% .0% 2.3% .4% .1% .0% 10.3 % % % Abo 13 12 9 4 26 9 0 1 15 0 20 1 0 0 110 ve 50 1.2 1.1% .8% .4% 2.3 .8% .0% .1% 1.3% .0% 1.8% .1% .0% .0% 9.8% % % Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122 9.6 8.6% 8.2 2.9 11.5 10.2 .1% .6% 27.6 .3% 18.1% 2.0% .2% .2% 100% % % % % % % Chi-Square test= 1.002E2a, p-value=.046

7.5.3 Professional Consideration

The opinion of the different professional groups‟ perception about different political parties

that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, some

of the businessmen expected PTI, PPP and ANP. Among the daily wagers, some expected

PTI, JUI-F and ANP. Among the respondents a large number of government servants

trusted PTI, JI, while among the non-government servants a large number believed that PTI

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and PML-N. Although majority of the farmers relies on PTI and JUI-F. A significant

number of unemployed respondents trusted on PTI, PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, ANP and JI that

can eliminate the issues from society. Lastly, a major portion of housewives expected PTI

and some consider JI, ANP, PPP, JUI, and PML-N to liberate the society from issues (See

Table No.144).

Conversely, among the total respondents who did not trust any political party to

liberate the society from these issues were a small number of businessmen, daily wagers and

farmers. A considerable number of government servants, non-government servants,

unemployed and housewives also not trusted on any political party to undermine the issues

at hand. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an

association between profession and expectation from different political parties to liberate

society from issues.

Table No.144 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis? None PML- JUI- of Don‟t Profession PPP ANP N QWP JI JUI-F MQM S PTI PMAP these Indep. Know APML Total 14 13 8 5 7 9 0 1 26 1 21 4 0 1 110 Business 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 9.8% 8 11 6 5 10 19 0 3 22 0 10 0 0 1 95 daily wagers 0.7% 1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 8.5% Government 21 9 11 2 38 17 1 0 55 0 52 6 1 0 213 Servant 1.9% 0.8% 1% 0.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 19% Non- 8 10 12 5 10 10 0 0 55 0 38 2 1 0 151 government servant 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 13.5% 6 7 9 3 8 14 0 0 21 1 9 0 0 0 78 Farming 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7% 21 13 19 2 13 17 0 1 52 0 37 2 0 0 177 Unemployed 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 30 34 27 10 43 28 0 2 79 1 36 8 0 0 298 Housewives 2.7% 3% 2.4% 0.9% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 7% 0.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122 Total 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.20% 0.2% 100% Chi-square test= 1.364E2a, p-value=.000

7.5.4 Income Consideration

In terms of income ( See in Table-145), the opinion of the different income groups

regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and

energy crisis from the province, a major portion of lower income class expected that PTI, 211

JUI-F, PML-N, PPP, ANP and JI. However, among the middle income class some expected

PTI, JI, ANP and JUI-F to eliminate the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. While a small number of upper middle expected PTI, PPP and PML-N can eliminate the issues at hand. The upper income class expected PTI, PPP and JI to handle the issues.

Among the respondents a major portion of lower and middle class did not trust on any political party to liberate the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. It is also observed that a considerable number of lower income class trusted on the religious political parties to get rid of the problems ahead. The Chi-square test provides highly significant p-value. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between monthly income and expectation from different political parties to liberate society from issues.

Table No.145 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis? Income PPP AN PM QWP JI JU MQ JU PT P None Inde Don‟t AP Total P L-N I-F M I-S I M of p. know ML AP these Below 26 21 27 7 20 51 0 4 60 0 23 6 0 0 245 10,000 2.3 1.9 2.4 .6% 1.8 4.5 .0% .4 5.3 .0 2.0% .5% .0% .0% 21.8 % % % % % % % % % 10000- 13 19 6 6 17 13 0 0 45 0 41 3 1 1 165 20000 1.2 1.7 .5% .5% 1.5 1.2 .0% .0 4.0 .0 3.7% .3% .1% .1% 14.7 % % % % % % % % 20000- 10 11 12 5 16 14 0 0 41 0 39 1 0 0 149 30000 .9% 1.0 1.1 .4% 1.4 1.2 .0% .0 3.7 .0 3.5% .1% .0% .0% 13.3 % % % % % % % % 30000- 10 3 10 1 7 3 1 0 24 0 8 4 1 1 73 40000 .9% .3% .9% .1% .6% .3 .1% .0 2.1 .0 .7% .4% .1% .1% 6.5% % % % % 40000- 7 5 1 1 7 3 0 0 15 0 12 0 0 0 51 50000 .6% .4% .1% .1% .6% .3 .0% .0 1.3 .0 1.1% .0% .0% .0% 4.5% % % % % Above 4 2 2 0 20 0 0 0 16 0 8 0 0 0 52 50000 .4% .2% .2% .0% 1.8 .0 .0% .0 1.4 .0 .7% .0% .0% .0% 4.6% % % % % % Don‟t 38 36 34 12 42 30 0 3 10 3 72 8 0 0 387 know 9 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.1% 3.7 2.7 .0% .3 9.7 .3 6.4% .7% .0% .0% 34.5 % % % % % % % % % Total 108 97 92 32 129 11 1 7 31 3 203 22 2 2 1122 4 0 9.6 8.6 8.2 2.9% 11.5 10. .1% .6 27. .3 18.1% 2.0 .2% .2% 100 % % % % 2 % 6 % % % % % Chi-square test=1.795E2a, p-value=.000

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7.5.5 Educational Consideration

In terms of education (See in Table-146), the opinion of the respondents of different

educational level regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty,

ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, some of the primary level

respondents expected PTI, ANP and JI. However, a major portion of secondary school level

respondents stated that PTI, JUI-F and PML-N eradicate the issues in front. Some graduate

degree holders considered PTI, JI and PPP; although a large number of post graduate level

respondents trusted PTI, JI and PML-N to undermine poverty, ignorance, terrorism and

energy crisis. On the other hand, a large number of illiterate respondents expected PTI, ANP

and PPP that liberate society from the problems. Contrary to that, among the total

respondents a minor portion of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post

graduate and illiterate respondents argued that political parties are incapable to liberate the

society from these problems. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant

which shows an association between educational level and expectation from different

political parties to liberate society from issues.

Table No.146 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis? Education PPP ANP PML- QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI- PTI PMAP None Indep. Don‟t APML Total N S of Know these Primary 8 16 8 3 6 12 0 0 14 0 11 1 0 0 79 0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7% Middle 7 9 3 3 10 18 0 2 25 0 8 3 0 1 89 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 7.9% Matric 18 13 20 8 17 36 0 0 55 0 26 3 0 0 196 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 0.7% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% Intermediate 10 9 12 3 12 7 0 1 29 0 17 3 0 0 103 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% BA/BSc 20 9 11 8 26 13 0 1 53 3 33 2 1 1 181 1.8% 0.8% 1% 0.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 4.7% 0.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.1% MA/MSc 20 16 23 1 35 9 1 0 85 0 72 5 1 0 268 1.8% 1.4% 2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 6.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 23.9% M.Phil 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 0 9 0 0 0 23 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% Illiterate 23 25 15 5 22 19 0 3 39 0 27 5 0 0 183 2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.2% 0.2% 100% Chi-square test= 1.715E2a, p-value=.000 213

7.5.6 Regional Consideration

As far as three geographical regions are concerned, the opinion of the respondents of

different districts regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty,

ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, a large number of the respondents

of central districts expected PTI, ANP and PPP. While a large number of the respondents of

northern geographical region trusted on PTI, PPP and PML-N to eradicate the issues ahead.

However, the respondents of southern region expected PTI, JI and JUI-F can eliminate

poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Lastly, a huge number of the respondents

of southern district Lakki Marwat expected to undermine the local issues of society. The P-

value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between

geographical region and expectation from different political parties to liberate society from

issues (See Table No.147).

Table No.147 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis? Geographical PPP ANP PML- QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI- PTI PMAP No Indep. don‟t APML Total Region N S one remember North 41 16 24 10 47 11 0 2 124 0 94 7 2 2 380 3.7% 1.4% 2.1% 0.9% 4.2% 1% 0.0% 0.2% 11.1% 0.0% 8.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 33.9% Center 33 59 44 10 33 13 1 2 94 1 59 11 0 0 360 2.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 8.4% 0.1% 5.3% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 32.1% South 34 22 24 12 49 90 0 3 92 2 50 4 0 0 382 3% 2% 2.1% 1.1% 4.4% 8% 0.0% 0.3% 8.2% 0.2% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 34% Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.2% 0.2% 100% Chi-square test=1.903E2a, p-value=.000

Summary The study figures out that like other socio-political and psychological determinants issues

are also important determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Like other

provinces of Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also faced several socio-economic and political

issues. To connect issues with voting behaviour „Issue Ownership Theory‟ and „The Riding

the Wave Theory‟ is operationalized. The researcher used a multi-variable scale to measure

the issue voting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The first variable is the voters‟ identification of

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local and national issues. All respondents recognized a list of local and national issues. The main issues of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are poverty, militancy, energy crisis, unemployment and illiteracy. The respondents recognized different issues which they believe most important. In Karak scarcity of water is the most important issue. Therefore, the contesting candidates highlight the water issue. While in district Charsadda and Mardan the main issues identified were load-shedding and terrorism.

Secondly, a question asked that vote should be given to that political party that can eradicate poverty, ignorance, load-shedding and terrorism. A significant number of respondents agree to vote that political party that can eradicate the local and national issues.

However, a major portion of respondents said that vote should be poll to that political party that can resolve the issues ahead. On the basis of these findings, we can conclude that there are a large number of issue voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

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CHAPTER – 8

RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR

8.1 INTRODUCTION

Apart from party identification, personality and issue voting, another important determining factor of voting behaviour is religion in Pakistan. It is also believed that religion is an important element in determining voting preferences in the Pakhtun society. Religion is playing a key role in making socio-political attitudes of the people. Religious political parties‟ political rhetoric successfully attracts a significant number of voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. This rhetoric includes implementation of Sharia System/Islamic system of governance; Religious political parties as the defender of Islam; secular political parties as agents of Jews and Christians (Yahood-o-Nasara kay Aala-i-Kaar) and voting for religious political parties as the sacred duty of all the Muslims. Most of the religious political parties prefer to focus on the religious issues during election campaign. Religious political parties‟ leadership tries to sort out the solution of local and national issues in religious lenses.

Therefore, religious parties have a strong hold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa has three most popular religious political parties Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan

(JIP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal-ur-Rehman (JUI-F) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami ul

Haq (JUI-S). These religious political parties claim that their main objective is the implementation of „Sharia’ in Pakistan. During the election campaign the contesting candidates of the religious political parties promising to the voters that whenever they come into power the „Sharia Law‟ will be implementing in Pakistan. Harron K. Ullah (2014) categorized these three religious political parties into two organizational groups. He argued that JI has hierarchal structure and JUI has network organizational structure.

Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) was founded by Maulana Abu‟l Ala Maududi and his other colleagues in August 1941 (Ullah, 2014; Hartung, 2013; Nasr, 1996; Haqqani, 2005:21).

Maududi said that „Islamic Revolution‟ abolish the forces of modern-day Jahiliya

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(socialism, communism, secularism, liberal democracy) (Hartung, 2013:155). He laid down the foundation of 'Islamism' a theory of the establishment of an Islamic state by „Islamizing‟ the society. Maududi argued that when the economy and politics Islamized then the final milestone is Islamic revolution (Hartung, 2013:183).

Maulana Maududi was the writer of over one twenty (120) books and pamphlets. He made over thousand (1000) speeches and press statements. In 1930, Maududi completed his first monumental work „Al-Jihad-fil-Islam’. Al-Jihad-fil-Islam was an excellent treatise on the war and peace. Maududi discourses on Islam (Khutabat), Masla-e-Jabr-o-Qadr (The

Problem of Free Will and Determination), Islam-Main-Ibadat-ka-Tasawwur, Sunnat-ki-

Aaeena-Hasiyat, Tanqeehat were immensely commended (Jackson, 2011). However, his

Tafhimat explains the concepts of Islam into the rational way. He also wrote on Purdah

(veil), Haqooq-e-Zojain that was highly appreciated among common people. Maududi‟s book „Towards Understanding Islam‟ is a concise and logical introduction to Islam

(Ushama and Osmani, 2006). Moreover, his main contribution was commentary and translation of the Holy Quran entitled „Tafhim-al-Quran‟ that consists of six volumes.

Tafhim al-Quran has the far-reaching impact on the contemporary Islamic thinking.

Maulana Maududi scholarship has profoundness of the learning of the Quran and Sunnah

(Hartung, 2013; Nasr, 1996). Esposito (1983), Grare (2001) and Hassan (1982) described

Maududi a prominent Islamic ideologue, whose thoughts and scholarly work influence a large number of movements in the Islamic world.

After the foundation of Pakistan, Maududi came to Pakistan and organized Jamaat-i-

Islami. In 1948, Maududi rejected the Kashmir Jihad because it was a proxy war. He argued that Jihad should declare by a state and it should be not carried out secretly. As a result of this statement, Maududi was sent to jail. Maulana Maududi had differences on the interpretation of Sharia with the conservative Ulema of the subcontinent (Ullah, 2014).

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Maulana Maududi and his colleagues structured a strong organization framework of

Jamaat-i-Islami. Each and every member of the party has their own position and responsibilities in the party. Therefore, JI is considered a hierarchal political party. Harron

K. Ullah (2014) in his work describes that JI recruited profoundly from universities and

Madrassas to develop a small cadre of intellectuals and religious scholars for leadership. He classify the membership of party into three categories; Arkan (those people who qualified for JI membership), Muttafiq (A person who is not a member of JI but agree with JI policies) and Hamdard (sympathizers of Jamaat-i-Islami) (Ullah, 2014:81-82).

Humera Iqtidar (2014) in her work figures out that JI has a strong connection to the lower class especially with tenants and farmers of rural areas. She said that JI also runs a charity organization „Al-Khidmat Foundation‟ to give relief to the affected people in flood and other natural disasters. It is believed that JI like other Islamist political parties still promoting support through social services in society. Haroon K. Ullah also observed that those JI supporters and members of different governmental and non-governmental organization supporting to JI policies in their organizations. JI also have a number of educational institutions (Private English Medium Schools and Religious Madaris) through which it inculcates its ideology in the young generation. It has a student wing known as

Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba (IJT) that was established in 1947.

Since 2002, Jamaat-e-Islami became more pragmatic in electoral politics and it made coalition with different political parties. In General Elections 2002, JI with other religious parties formed a coalition Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). During election campaign all other religious political parties were supporting each other in front of common voters. In this way a positive image of the JI was established among the common people.

Lieven argued that JI focusing on socio-economic issues in their manifestos to attract the middle and lower middle class voters (Lieven, 2011). Moreover, JI also made unusual compromises with other secular political parties strategically, such as in 2001 local

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government elections JI made an alliance with Pakistan Peoples Party in Peshawar and

Lahore.

The second popular religious political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is Jamiat

Ulema-i-Islam (JUI). JUI originated from Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind (JUH) which was established by a group of the religious scholars of Deobandi school of thought in 1919

(Zaman, 2002; Pirzada, 2000). The motto of JUH was to use non-violent strategy to pressurize the British Empire to retain the Ottoman Caliphate. Later on, JUH joined the

Indian National Congress (INC) against the British Raj. On the question of Pakistan movement, JUH split into two groups, one was supporting partition and the other was against the partition of India (Ullah, 2014:77). The supporters of pro-partition faction of

JUH founded Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) under the leadership of Shabir Ahmad Usmani.

Shabir Ahmad Usmani and other like-minded colleagues of JUI played a key role in

Pakistan Movement. Therefore, Usmani started work with Muslim League after the independence of Pakistan. Shabir Ahmad Usmani became a member of the constituent assembly and he played a significant role in the passage of „Objectives Resolution‟ in 1949.

Since the beginning, JUI had close ethnic, cultural and religious ties with the rural voters

(Ullah, 2014:90).

Maulana Abdul Haq and Mufti Mehmood were the founding fathers of JUI in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 1970s election seven MNAs and nine MPAs elected from JUI. Mufti Mehmood became the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1980s

JUI divided into two factions on the question of joining General Zia ul Haq military government. JUI-S was the supporter of Zia dictatorial regime led by Maulana Sami Ul

Haq, while the opponent of Zia regime led by Maulana Fazl Rehman known as JUI-F (BBC,

2002).

JUI leadership started realistic electoral politics, which is based on networking with common voters on the lower level. Therefore, JUI established thousands of Madaris in

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different parts of the country. Nawab (2007) work figures out that during 1980 to 2002 the number of JUI-F and JUI-S affiliated Madrassas number increased from 1,840 to 7,000.

The students of those religious schools (Madrassas) recruited in local Mosques as Imams.

In this way, JUI networking started with electorates at ground level. The Imams of mosques are portraying the policies and programs of JUI during „Khutbas’ to convince voters. JUI is growing stronger in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, because the people have very strong affiliation with religion.

According to proximity theory, a voter prefers those contesting candidates whose availability is easy and accessible (Tomz and Houweling, 2008). Downs (1957) argues that similarity of the voter and candidate demands about an issue raise the satisfaction level of voter. The JUI networking model is the application of proximity theory in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

However, JUI several times joined hand with the secular political parties for their own interest in elections. Haroon K. Ullah argues that JUI was instrumental in the legislation of different Islamic laws during 1971 to 1977 (Ullah, 2014:93). During 70s, JUI made a coalition government with a secular and ethnic political party ANP in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

In 2002 JUI and other religious political parties formed a coalition called Muttahida

Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The election symbol of MMA was „Book‟. Jamshid Khan (2014) argued that during election campaign in public speeches the candidates of MMA called their symbol „Quran’. The leadership of JUI was using different kind of tactics to dissuade the voters from other political parties. For example, on 4th May 2013, Maulana Fazlur Rehman in his speech in Dera Ismail Khan said that “A person who could not make his own children

Muslim nor Pakistani, is dreaming of becoming prime minister of Pakistan and making the country an Islamic welfare state,” he also said that “Imran Khan is working for Jewish

(Yahoodi) lobby,” therefore, voting for PTI is Haram. A fatwa is a common tool that is used

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by religious political parties‟ leadership against other political parties during the election campaign (Political „Fatwa‟: Voting for PTI is Haram, 5th May, 2013). Ayub Jan (2010) argues that Pakhtuns have a very close religious attachment. Fatwa is playing a vital role to convince the voters in the election. The ratio of religious political parties‟ voters is higher in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa than other provinces of Pakistan. Table-1 portrays the percentage vote of JUI, JI and JUP in three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Table No. 148 Religious Political Parties Percentage Votes in 2002, 2008 and 2013 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Elections Khyber Pakhtunkhwa % National Level % General Elections 2002 73.2% 54.3% General Elections 2008 61.4% 21.8% General Elections 2013 25.57% 28.94% Source: Haroon K. Ullah, (2014). Vying for Allah‟s Vote; Understanding Islamic Parties, Political Violence and Extremism in Pakistan, Georgetown University Press: Washington DC, 124- 125

During election campaign religious political parties‟ leadership and contesting candidates using the rhetoric that we want to implement the „Sharia‟ in Pakistan. During the survey the researcher have asked from the respondents that why they voted to that political party in

2013 General Elections? The respondents‟ response is correlated with the controlled variables (gender, age, education, profession, income and geographical regions). The results of each variable tested with chi-square test.

8.1.1 Gender Consideration A significant portion of Pakistan‟s population consists of women. According to the UNDP report, women literacy rate in Pakistan is less than 42% (UNDP, 2010). The low literacy rate presented the vulnerable situation of women in Pakistan. However, with the passage of time gradual changes in the socio-politico-economic circumstances and awareness about women education, women inflow into health, education, engineering and Information

Technology increased. Nonetheless, women active participation in politics also grows up

(WEIN, 2010). Likewise, other political parties, the ratio of female members are equally

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increasing in religious political parties in Pakistan. It seems that women have more inclination towards religion than men.

Table-149 indicates that majority of the male respondents voted to a political party on the basis to change the system. As far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, a significant number of male and female respondents said that they voted to that political party who want to implement Islamic system in Pakistan. However, some of male and female respondents accepted that they voted to a party on the basis of ideological attachment with that political party. On the other hand, a quantity of male and female respondents supports that political party which is fighting for the political rights of

Pakhtuns. Although among the total respondents, major portion male and female respondents voted to the party because that political party wants to bring change in the old system. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.

Table No. 149 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Gender Ideologic Good Islamic Granted Protecting Change Don‟t Total al Perform system Jobs to Pakhtuns the know attachme ance our Political system nt family Rights Male 92 94 110 15 66 199 50 626 8.2% 8.4% 9.8% 1.3% 5.9% 17.7% 4.5% 55.8% Female 63 103 89 15 35 136 55 496 5.6% 9.2% 7.9% 1.3% 3.1% 12.1% 4.9% 44.2% Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100% Chi-Square test= 14.790a, p-value=.022

8.1.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age groups, a small number of adults, youth, mid and old age respondents voted to a party because they wanted to implement Islamic system in Pakistan. Although, among the total respondents some of the youngsters, mid and old age respondents accepted that they voted a political party because of the association with an ideology. Regardless of that, among the total respondents of different age groups majority 222

of the adults, mid and aged respondents support a political party on the basis of change in system. While a quantity of the different age groups support a political party on the basis of good performance and a significant number of respondents voted a political party because it is considered to fight for the political rights of Pakhtuns. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between age of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party (See Table No.150).

Table No.150 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Age Ideologic Good Islamic Granted Protecting Change Don‟t Total al Performanc system Jobs to Pakhtuns the system know attachme e our family Political nt Rights 18-23 22 30 28 4 32 63 30 209 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 0.4% 2.9% 5.6% 2.7% 18.6% 23-27 27 37 32 2 18 65 20 201 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 0.2% 1.6% 5.8% 1.8% 17.9% 27-32 32 31 36 6 14 64 14 197 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 0.5% 1.2% 5.7% 1.2% 17.6% 32-37 17 26 25 5 17 42 11 143 1.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.4% 1.5% 3.7% 1.0% 12.7% 37-42 22 28 25 7 8 45 11 146 2% 2.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.7% 4.0% 1.0% 13% 42-50 21 23 20 4 6 33 9 116 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 10.3% Above 14 22 33 2 6 23 10 110 50 1.2% 2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.5% 2.0% 0.9% 9.8% Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100% Chi-Square test= 54.121a, p-value=.027

8.1.3 Professional Consideration

Table-151 predicts professional consideration and the support of political parties in 2013 elections. Among the total respondents a small number of Businessmen, daily wagers, non- government servants, farmers, unemployed and a considerable number of government servants and housewives agreed to vote that party because those political parties want to implement Islamic system in Pakistan.

In spite of that, a small number of different professional groups argued that they voted to that political party because it is fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns. However, a considerable number of Businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government

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servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives agreed to vote that party because that party wanted change in the system. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.

Table No. 151 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Profession Ideologic Good Islamic Granted Protecting Change Don‟t Total al Perform system Jobs to Pakhtuns the know attachme ance our family Political system nt Rights 22 18 17 3 12 32 6 110 Businessm en 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.1% 2.9% 0.5% 9.8% 10 13 15 1 20 30 6 95 daily wager 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.5% 8.5% 26 28 45 8 11 63 32 213 Governme nt Servant 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% 5.6% 2.9% 19.0% 33 22 23 0 14 49 10 151 Non-govt. servant 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.4% 0.9% 13.5% 7 19 14 3 8 22 5 78 Farming 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.4% 7.0% 25 27 24 4 13 64 20 177 Unemploy ed 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 1.2% 5.7% 1.8% 15.8% 32 70 61 11 23 75 26 298 House wives 2.9% 6.2% 5.4% 1.0% 2.0% 6.7% 2.3% 26.6% 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 Total 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9.0% 29.9% 9.4% 100% Chi-Square test= 78.615a, p-value=.000

8.1.4 Income Consideration

Table-152 demonstrates that majority of the low-income groups‟ respondents voted to those political parties that want the implementation of Islamic system in Pakistan. Among the total respondents of different income, some of the lower, lower middle, middle and upper income class stated that they voted to that political party because the party wants the implementation of Islamic system in Pakistan. While a large number of lower income class stated that they voted to a political party because it wanted change in system. However, a small number of lower, middle and upper income class responded that they voted to that political party because that party is fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns. The P-value<0.05 of

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the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between monthly income of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.

Table No.152 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Monthl Ideologi Good Islamic Granted Protecting Change Don‟t Total y cal Performan system Jobs to Pakhtuns the know income attachme ce our Political system nt family Rights Below 36 51 44 10 30 60 14 245 10,000 3.2% 4.5% 3.9% 0.9% 2.7% 5.3% 1.2% 21.8% 10000- 25 29 25 4 14 56 12 165 20000 2.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 1.2% 5% 1.1% 14.7% 20000- 18 26 32 1 13 42 17 149 30000 1.6% 2.3% 2.9% 0.1% 1.2% 3.7% 1.5% 13.3% 30000- 10 10 15 2 4 25 7 73 40000 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 6.5% 40000- 7 6 8 3 6 17 4 51 50000 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% 0.4% 4.5% Above 16 1 13 1 1 8 12 52 50000 1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 4.6% Don‟t 43 74 62 9 33 127 39 387 know 3.8% 6.6% 5.5% 0.8% 2.9% 11.3% 3.5% 34.5% Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100% Chi-Square test= 67.130a, p-value=.001

8.1.5 Educational Consideration

In Table-153 among the total respondents of different educational levels, small number of primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents agrees to vote that political party that can employ the Islamic System in Pakistan. However, some of the graduate, post graduate and uneducated respondents said that they supported the party because it wants to implement Islamic System. Whereas, a minor portion of primary and higher secondary school level believed that the party they voted can change the present system of Pakistan.

However, a significant number of graduate and post graduate level respondents also support to that political party that can change the present system of Pakistan. Nonetheless, a minimal portion of primary, secondary school, higher secondary, graduate and post graduate degree holder respondents voted to a party because it is fighting for the political rights of

Pakhtuns. However, a large number of graduate and post graduate education level

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respondents supported a political party because it supported its ideology. We have also found a large number of illiterate respondents who illustrated that they voted a party on the basis of its performance. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between educational level of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.

Table No. 153 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Ideologi Good Islamic Granted Protecting Change Don‟t Total Educatio cal Perform system Jobs to Pakhtuns the system know n attachm ance our family Political ent Rights 10 8 20 7 13 16 5 79 Primary 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 7.0% 12 18 14 1 10 28 6 89 Middle 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 0.5% 7.9% 27 38 47 7 17 40 20 196 Matric 2.4% 3.4% 4.2% 0.6% 1.5% 3.6% 1.8% 17.5% 19 20 16 2 12 21 13 103 Intermedi ate 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 9.2% 23 25 24 6 17 63 23 181 BA/BSc 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 5.6% 2.0% 16.1% 48 32 43 1 19 96 29 268 MA/MSc 4.3% 2.9% 3.8% 0.1% 1.7% 8.6% 2.6% 23.9% 2 2 4 1 0 12 2 23 M.Phil 0.2% 0.2% .4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.0% 14 54 31 5 13 59 7 183 Illiterate 1.2% 4.8% 2.8% 0.4% 1.2% 5.3% 0.6% 16.3% 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 Total 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9.0% 29.9% 9.4% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 1.068E2a, p-value=.000

8.1.6 Regional Consideration

Table-154 indicates that among the respondents of three different geographical regions of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a major portion of the respondents of southern regions agree to vote that political party that is struggling for the implementation of Islamic System in Pakistan.

Therefore, since 2002 the southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a strong hold of the

JUI-F. However, some of the respondents of central and northern geographical regions also have the support of those political parties that wants Islamic System in Pakistan. The data predicts a large number of the respondents of central and northern regions who said that they voted because the political party wants to bring change in the system. While, some of 226

the respondents of three geographical regions also alleged that they voted that political party that supporting their ideology.

Apart from that, some of the respondents of central, southern and northern regions supported Pakhtun nationalist political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between region of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.

Table No. 154 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections? Geograp Ideologica Good Islamic Grante Protecting Change Don‟t Total hical l Performa system d Jobs Pakhtuns the know Region attachmen nce to our Political system t family Rights North 61 63 49 3 18 134 52 380 5.4% 5.6% 4.4% 0.3% 1.6% 11.9% 4.6% 33.9% Center 44 73 40 11 45 118 29 360 3.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.0% 4% 10.5% 2.6% 32.1% South 50 61 110 16 38 83 24 382 4.5% 5.4% 9.8% 1.4% 3.4% 7.4% 2.1% 34.0% Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122 13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100% Chi-Square test=91.521a, p-value=.000

8.2 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTION ABOUT RELIGIOUS POLITICAL

PARTIES

Alongside the three major political parties (PPP, PML and PTI), the religious political parties constitute another component in the politics of Pakistan. Religious parties experienced their luck in the polls but consistently failed to draw majority seats in parliament. The total votes cast to religious political parties before the 2002 election, in

1990 election 1.76%, 1993 election 6.75%, and in 1997 election 1.83% (Warriach, 2002). In

Table-148 we can see that since General Elections 2002 the vote bank of the religious political parties growing up generally in Pakistan and particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In General Elections 2002, News Link (2002) reported that the main reason of the support of religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was anti-Americanism. Hamid H.

Kizilbash (1988) in his work identified that Pakistanis give three reasons for negative

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feelings about the United States of America. The first reason is U.S. dual policies towards

Pakistan. The second reason deals with US support to Israel and use of force against developing nations including Muslim world and the third reason of Anti-Americanism consists of US involvement in the policies of the Pakistani government. Kizilbash explains that many people are anxious about the Pak-US relationship and they opposed to being hostile. On the other hand, US support of Israel, India, and military dictators disengage a lot of the goodwill in Pakistani society. Lastly, the most important reasons of anti-Americanism are religious, cultural and ethnic differences (Kizilbash, 1988). The religious political parties are exploiting anti-Americanism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in elections.

Athar (2002) illustrated that politics is moving around in a vicious circle of foreign debt, poverty, and wealth controlled by a few families. Therefore, these factors may have segregated a section of voters from the major political parties of Pakistan. Now they were looking towards religious political parties. Idress (2002) supported Athar opinion and he also described the rising support of the religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as a reaction to the feudalism, and corruption of the non-religious political parties.

However, Saddiqui (2002) opines that the nationalist political parties (ANP) have also been defeated by the religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He pointed out that religious parties‟ victory was not just a response to Anti-Americanism but was a reaction to the socio-economic deprivation in the society. We can say that there is no single factor responsible to the rising vote bank of religious political parties, but all these factors are involved in the support of religious political parties. A question is asked from the respondents, “Whether there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan”. The response of this question is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age, profession, qualification, income, geographical regions) and applied Chi-Square test.

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8.2.1 Gender Consideration

Table-155 provides the correlation of gender of the respondents and perception about the religious political parties. Among the total respondents a great number of male and female respondents said that there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan. Contrary to that, some of the male and female respondents disagree that there should be only religious political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan. Moreover, some of the male and female respondents did not mention their opinion about religious political parties. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

Table No. 155 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Gender Extremel disagree Don‟t know Agree to some Agree to a Total y extent large extent Disagree Male 126 134 90 210 66 626 11.2% 11.9% 8.0% 18.7% 5.9% 55.8% Female 94 82 115 152 53 496 8.4% 7.3% 10.2% 13.5% 4.7% 44.2% Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100% Chi-Square test= 16.088a, p-value=.003

8.2.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories in Table-156 indicates, a large number of youngsters stated that we are supporting religious political parties in Pakistan.

However, a significant number of middle and old age respondents were also supporting the religious political parties in Pakistan. Contrary to that, among the total respondents a significant number of adults, middle and old age respondents refused the presence of only religious political parties in Pakistan. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

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Table No.156 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total Age Disagree know some large extent extent 36 41 33 76 23 209 18-23 3.2% 3.7% 2.9% 6.8% 2.0% 18.6% 38 41 43 61 18 201 23-27 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 5.4% 1.6% 17.9% 46 34 37 61 19 197 27-32 4.1% 3.0% 3.3% 5.4% 1.7% 17.6% 27 27 31 40 18 143 32-37 2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6% 1.6% 12.7% 27 33 27 45 14 146 37-42 2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 4.0% 1.2% 13.0% 26 21 23 34 12 116 42-50 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 1.1% 10.3% 20 19 11 45 15 110 Above 50 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 4.0% 1.3% 9.8% 220 216 205 362 119 1122 Total 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 19.031a, p-value=.750

8.2.3 Professional Consideration

The assessment of Table-157 provides the correlation of the respondents‟ professional affiliation with the perception about religious political parties. A major portion of the government servants, jobless and housewives perceived that there should only religious political parties. However, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, non-government servants, farmers express that there should be only religious political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S,

JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan.

On the other hand, significant number of government servants, non-government servants, housewives and daily wagers redundant the existence of only religious political parties in Pakistan. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

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Table No. 157 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Profession Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total Disagree know some large extent extent Business 27 22 21 27 13 110 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 1.2% 9.8% daily wage 8 19 13 48 7 95 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 4.3% 0.6% 8.5% Government 42 43 36 58 34 213 Servant 3.7% 3.8% 3.2% 5.2% 3.0% 19.0% Non- 52 36 17 34 12 151 government 4.6% 3.2% 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% 13.5% servant Farming 8 15 15 36 4 78 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 3.2% 0.4% 7.0% Unemployed 39 34 31 56 17 177 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 5.0% 1.5% 15.8% Housewives 44 47 72 103 32 298 3.9% 4.2% 6.4% 9.2% 2.9% 26.6% Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0% Chi-Square test=80.180a, p-value=.000

8.2.4 Income Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income showed in Table-158, the highest number of lower income class supported the strong hold of religious political parties in Pakistan.

Contrary to that, minimal number of upper income class support the religious political parties at all. On the other hand, some of the lower, middle and upper income class respondents denied that there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan. The data shows that majority of the lower income class supporting the religious political parties because of their close attachment with religion. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between monthly income of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

Table No. 158 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Monthly Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total income Disagree know some large extent extent Below 10,000 39 43 40 98 25 245 3.5% 3.8% 3.6% 8.7% 2.2% 21.8% 10000-20000 38 37 28 42 20 165 3.4% 3.3% 2.5% 3.7% 1.8% 14.7% 20000-30000 27 24 27 52 19 149 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 4.6% 1.7% 13.3% 231

30000-40000 17 12 17 16 11 73 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 6.5% 40000-50000 13 15 6 13 4 51 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 4.5% Above 50000 19 15 3 6 9 52 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% .5% 0.8% 4.6% Don‟t know 67 70 84 135 31 387 6.0% 6.2% 7.5% 12.0% 2.8% 34.5% Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 56.055a, p-value=.000

8.2.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels showed in Table-159, the paramount number of illiterate respondents opined that there should be religious political parties in Pakistan. However, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post graduate level respondents said that they support only religious political parties

(JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan.

Contrary to that, a large number of post graduate level respondents refused the existence of only religious political parties. Moreover, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary and graduate level respondents also denied the presence of only religious political parties in Pakistan. We have found that majority of the illiterate respondents were supporting religious cult in the shape of religious political parties, while highly educated respondents refused the presence of religious political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between educational qualification of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

Table No. 159 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Educational Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total qualification Disagree know some large extent extent Primary 14 14 12 27 12 79 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 1.1% 7.0% Middle 15 9 14 45 6 89 1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 4.0% 0.5% 7.9% Matric 34 43 40 63 16 196 3.0% 3.8% 3.6% 5.6% 1.4% 17.5% Intermediate 26 26 13 26 12 103 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 9.2% BA/BSc 32 39 30 55 25 181 232

2.9% 3.5% 2.7% 4.9% 2.2% 16.1% MA/MSc 82 59 40 53 34 268 7.3% 5.3% 3.6% 4.7% 3.0% 23.9% M.Phil 6 3 2 11 1 23 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 2.0% Illiterate 11 23 54 82 13 183 1.0% 2.0% 4.8% 7.3% 1.2% 16.3% Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0% Chi-Square test=1.134E2a, p-value=.000

8.2.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa showed in

Table-160, the highest number of the respondents of southern regions supports the existence of only religious political parties. Even though, some of the respondents of central and northern regions are also supported merely religious political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP,

PAT) in Pakistan.

Apart from that, a large number of the respondents of northern region rejected the religious political parties only. It is observed from the three general elections results of

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that the vote bank of religious political parties in southern region is greater than northern and central geographical regions. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and support to religious political parties.

Table No.160 There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? Geograp Extremely Disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a large Total hical Disagree know some extent extent Region North 120 90 52 73 45 380 10.7% 8.0% 4.6% 6.5% 4.0% 33.9% Center 47 55 102 124 32 360 4.2% 4.9% 9.1% 11.1% 2.9% 32.1% South 53 71 51 165 42 382 4.7% 6.3% 4.5% 14.7% 3.7% 34.0% Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122 19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0% Chi-Square test=1.147E2a, p-value=.000

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8.3 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTIONS TO VOTE FOR RELIGIOUS POLITICAL

PARTIES

In Pakistan, the role of religious political parties has always been significant. These religious political parties are representing the ultra-conservative segment of society. In

General Elections 2002 for the first time, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) a group of six

(6) religious political parties won fifty-four (54) seats in national assembly and majority seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly (Khan, 2014). In spite of being not capable to win national assembly polls and provincial assemblies‟ seats, religious parties have been acquiring a remarkable vote bank in each electoral constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Moreover, since 2002 elections, JUI-F and JI permanently winning some of the national and provincial seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the vote bank also growing up in each constituency. Likewise, in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Charsadda and Lower Dir are the permanent constituencies of JUI-F and JI. The results of 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections show that the vote bank of religious political parties is growing up in different constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Those respondents who are supporting the religious political parties openly accepted that they voted to that particular political party in General Elections 2013. The response of the voters is correlated with gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions.

The correlation of the different variables is given in the tables below.

8.3.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents (See in Table-161), majority of the male and female said that vote is merely given to religious political parties. Contrary to that, among the total respondents, a significant number of male and female respondents are opposing to vote only religious political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is

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highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.

Table No.161 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Gender Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to some Agree to a Total Disagree know extent large extent Male 120 145 56 240 65 626 10.7% 12.9% 5.0% 21.4% 5.8% 55.8% Female 66 112 92 171 55 496 5.9% 10% 8.2% 15.2% 4.9% 44.2% Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100% Chi-Square test= 26.381a, p-value=.000

8.3.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories, the maximum number of youngsters tended towards religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, a significant number of middle and old age respondents also agree that vote should be given to religious political parties. On the other hand, among the total respondents a large number of youngsters denied to vote religious political parties. Moreover, a good number of middle and old age respondents show their disagreement to vote religious political parties. The P- value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and vote to religious political parties (See Table-162).

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Table No. 162 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Age Extremely disagree Don‟t know Agree to some Agree to a Total Disagree extent large extent 33 45 25 80 26 209 18-23 2.9% 4.0% 2.2% 7.1% 2.3% 18.6% 41 49 31 63 17 201 23-27 3.7% 4.4% 2.8% 5.6% 1.5% 17.9% 37 49 29 69 13 197 27-32 3.3% 4.4% 2.6% 6.1% 1.2% 17.6% 27 30 17 56 13 143 32-37 2.4% 2.7% 1.5% 5.0% 1.2% 12.7% 14 33 23 55 21 146 37-42 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 4.9% 1.9% 13.0% 20 30 16 38 12 116 42-50 1.8% 2.7% 1.4% 3.4% 1.1% 10.3% 14 21 7 50 18 110 Above 50 1.2% 1.9% .6% 4.5% 1.6% 9.8% 186 257 148 411 120 1122 Total 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100% Chi-Square test= 31.530a, p-value=.139

8.3.3 Professional Consideration

Majority of the housewives and unemployed respondents stated that they are eager to vote

religious political parties. We have found that a majority of the housewives have tendency

towards religious political parties in election. Sarah Ladbury and Seema Khan argued that

religious political parties are more attractive for the women in Muslim majority countries

(Ladbury and Khan, 2008).

Whereas, a significant number of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, government

and non-government employees are also eager to support religious political parties in

election. Conversely, a major segment of non-government employees, government

employees and unemployed respondents denied voting religious political parties in election.

The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association

between profession of the respondents and vote to religious political parties (See Table

No.163).

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Table No. 163 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total Profession Disagree know some large extent extent 23 30 15 32 10 110 Business 2.0% 2.7% 1.3% 2.9% 0.9% 9.8% 11 14 12 48 10 95 daily wager 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 4.3% 0.9% 8.5% 33 52 28 71 29 213 Government Servant 2.9% 4.6% 2.5% 6.3% 2.6% 19.0% 45 46 14 37 9 151 Non-government 4.0% 4.1% 1.2% 3.3% 0.8% 13.5% servant 6 20 10 38 4 78 Farming .5% 1.8% .9% 3.4% 0.4% 7.0% 42 44 18 51 22 177 Unemployed 3.7% 3.9% 1.6% 4.5% 2.0% 15.8% 26 51 51 134 36 298 Housewives 2.3% 4.5% 4.5% 11.9% 3.2% 26.6% 186 257 148 411 120 1122 Total 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 91.647a, p-value=.000

8.3.4 Income Consideration

Table-164 shows that among the total respondents of different income groups, a large number of lower income group said that they support the religious political parties in election. Khurshid Ahmad (2006) argued that religion is more attractive tool for the lower income class in a society. Although some of the lower middle, middle and upper income class respondents keenly interested to vote religious political parties in coming election. In defiance of that, among the total respondents, a considerable number of lower, lower middle, middle and upper income class denied to support religious political parties in election. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between monthly income of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.

Table No. 164 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Monthly Extreme disagre Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total income ly e know some large Disagre extent extent e Below 39 51 29 101 25 245 10,000 3.5% 4.5% 2.6% 9.0% 2.2% 21.8% 10000- 28 45 16 59 17 165 20000 2.5% 4.0% 1.4% 5.3% 1.5% 14.7% 20000- 27 40 21 44 17 149 237

30000 2.4% 3.6% 1.9% 3.9% 1.5% 13.3% 30000- 14 15 10 26 8 73 40000 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 2.3% 0.7% 6.5% 40000- 7 21 4 15 4 51 50000 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 4.5% Above 15 11 2 15 9 52 50000 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4.6% Don‟t 56 74 66 151 40 387 know 5.0% 6.6% 5.9% 13.5% 3.6% 34.5% Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 38.871a, p-value=.028

8.3.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-21), the major portion of uneducated respondents shows their keenness to vote religious political parties.

However, a significant number of primary, secondary and higher secondary, graduate and post graduate stated that they support religious political parties. Haroon K. Ullah (2014) assumed that illiterate individuals are supporting the religious political parties.

On the other hand, the major portion of post graduate level respondents disagreed to vote religious political parties. However, some of primary, secondary, higher secondary level respondents denied to vote religious political parties in election. The data shows that the religious political parties support increases in the highly educated respondents. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between education of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.

Table No.165 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Educational Extremely disagre Don‟t Agree to Agree to Total qualification Disagree e know some a large extent extent Primary 9 21 10 26 13 79 0.8% 1.9% 0.9% 2.3% 1.2% 7% Middle 7 20 9 45 8 89 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 4.0% 0.7% 7.9% Matric 22 43 36 76 19 196 2.0% 3.8% 3.2% 6.8% 1.7% 17.5% Intermediate 27 19 11 36 10 103 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 3.2% .9% 9.2% BA/BSc 36 44 20 62 19 181 3.2% 3.9% 1.8% 5.5% 1.7% 16.1% MA/MSc 71 85 28 58 26 268 6.3% 7.6% 2.5% 5.2% 2.3% 23.9% 238

M.Phil 6 5 0 11 1 23 0.5% 0.4% .0% 1.0% 0.1% 2.0% Illiterate 8 20 34 97 24 183 0.7% 1.8% 3.0% 8.6% 2.1% 16.3% Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100% Chi-Square test= 1.271E2a, p-value=.000

8.3.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in

Table-166, a large number of the respondents of southern regions said that vote is merely given to religious political parties. However, some of the respondents of central and northern regions keenly interested to vote religious political parties. Contrary to that, majority of the respondents of northern regions disagree to vote religious political parties.

However, some of the respondents of central and southern regions denied voting to religious political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.

Table No. 166 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only? Geographi Extremely disagree Don‟t Agree to Agree to a Total cal Region Disagree know some extent large extent North 99 121 41 86 33 380 8.8% 10.8% 3.7% 7.7% 2.9% 33.9% Center 52 67 62 137 42 360 4.6% 6.0% 5.5% 12.2% 3.7% 32.1% South 35 69 45 188 45 382 3.1% 6.1% 4.0% 16.8% 4.0% 34.0% Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122 16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0% Chi-Square test= 1.002E2a, p-value=.000

8.4 THE RELATIONSHIP OF RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR

Rose and Unwin, (1969), Converse (1974), Rose (1974), Lijphart (1979), Powell (1982) and

Mann (1995) pointed out that religion also playing a significant role in determining political attitudes of a person. Manza and Brooks (1997) argued that religion has an important impact on how the voter looks at specific social and economic issues.

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In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa religion is playing significant role in shaping voting behaviour. Majority of the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are Pakhtuns. Rauf (2011) argues that Pakhtuns are very strongly associated with religion (Islam). His study figures out that this is the reason that why the ratio of religious political parties vote bank is growing in Pakhtuns majority areas than other communities of Pakistan (Rauf, 2011).

However, Haroon K. Ullah (2014) presented three assumptions on the subject of the support of religious political parties in Pakistan. The first assumption is that religious political parties‟ top agenda is the implementation of ‘Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. The voters of religious parties also want the implementation of ‘Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. Therefore, they support the religious political parties. The second assumption based on socio-economic status of the voter. Haroon K. Ullah argued that poverty and illiteracy generate support for religious political parties in Pakistan. He also argued that the voter political decision is based on rationality; therefore, it is assumed that religious political parties maximize the chances of the voters‟ benefits. Therefore those voters who need a socio-economic support they voted to religious political parties. Arzheimer and Carter (2009) argued that socio- psychological factor is also an important determinant of voting behaviour. The psychological theory of voting behaviour support that not only economic gains but psychological factor is also a very important determinant of voting behaviour (Ullah, 2014:

111-112).

Summary Since 9/11 militancy and Islamic radicalization is budding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

(Mehboob, 2011). The flow of Islamic radicalization accelerates the importance of religious political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the contesting candidates of religious political parties focus on the anti-Americanism and implementation of Islam System of government.

As a result of election campaign, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) won majority seats in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is observed that since 2002 elections the vote bank of religious

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political parties rising promptly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study identified that religion is also playing a key role in determining voting behaviour of the voters in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. The religious political parties vote is measured by a multi-variables scale.

Among the respondents, a significant number of respondents accepted that they voted for a political party because it can implement Islamic System in Pakistan. However, a large number of respondents said that there should be religious political parties in Pakistan.

Lastly, a major portion of respondents alleged that vote should be given to religious political parties only. On the basis of these facts and figures, like other determinants of voting behaviour religion is also a key determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The researcher also sorts out the tendency of a large number of illiterate and lower income class respondents towards religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These findings will also provide new dimensions for upcoming research.

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CHAPTER – 9

ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN SHAPING VOTING BEHAVIOUR

9.1 INTRODUCTION

Pakhtuns have a strong social and religious foundation. Therefore, strong contours of religion and social structure exist in Pakhtun society. It is believed that religion and social networks (family, friends and relatives) both have impacts on the voters‟ political behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In general elections 2002, religious political parties got majority votes. On the other hand, social networks equally influence the voters‟ preferences. Shah

(2013) study on 2008 elections figure out the importance of social networks in district

Charsadda of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Therefore, we can say that social networks and religion are playing important role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

In spite all other social norms in Pakhtun society, Mashar Aw Kashar is also an important ingredient of the social structure. Both terms belonged to Pashtu language

Mashar means elder and Kashar means youngster. In Pakhtun society, Kasharan (plural of

Kashar means youngsters) give respect and honour to their Masharan (elders). There are two kinds of Masharan, one is family Mashar and the other one influential Mashar of the area. Family is an important element of the social structure. Davies (1965) describes two types of family, one is nuclear family and other is extended family. The nuclear family consists of parents and their children, while the extended family is larger than nuclear family and it is a combination of grandparents, uncles, aunts, nieces and nephews. In

Pakhtun social structure, there is also an intra-families relationship. The intra-families relationship is known as family relatives (Khpalwan). The relatives of a family or an individual have the family relationship with each other. Relatives also have a very important

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place in the Pakhtun society. During the funeral, marriage ceremonies and other socio- economic activities, the family relatives participate and share the joys and sorrows with each other. The relatives are two types; one is blood relatives and other is the relatives of the relative. Similarly, friendship of one individual with the other one extended the social network of that individual. It is not necessary that a friend should be a family member. But in some cases, the friendship of two individuals transform into blood relations. All these features are important ingredients of social networks in Pakhtun society.

In the classical writing of political socialization, family is considered a significant element to determine the youngsters‟ political attitude and political behaviour (Davies,

1965; Langton, 1969; Dawson & Prewitt, 1969). Salem, Ibrahim & Brady (2003) argued that parents, teachers, friends and media develop the political knowledge of an individual as well as the values of political socialization. Jaros (1973) and Valentino & Sears (1998) argued that parents transmit political awareness, knowledge and values to their offspring.

Jennings et al. (2001) and Hyman (1959) studies figured out that family has an important impact on determining the political attitudes of children.

Whereas, Plutzer (2002) and Rosenstone & Hansen (2003) argued that besides family there are other socializing agents like school, peer groups and voluntary associations.

Quintelier et al. (2007) study figures out the direct role of parents on children political attitudes. He further explored that it is an intergenerational transmission from parents to their offspring. It is observed in Pakhtun families that children are motivated towards the political party that belongs to their parents. In fact in Pakhtun society often father is the head of the family and the rest of the family economically and socially depended on him.

Since the beginning the parents always discuss the positive aspects of their own political party in home. But in case if he has no political knowledge then maybe their children support different political parties, and even his father follows his children. It is also observed that a single family may have different political parties‟ supporters.

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On the other hand, some Masharan also has politico-economic influence in the locality. Such kind of Mashar may be younger than other voters. But that Mashar has the influence on the political choice of the voters of the area. Such a Mashar sometimes use economic or social influence to get political support in the area. Sapiro (2004) argued that political socialization depends on different contexts. Salem et al. (2003) and Ramadan et al.

(2014) study emphasized on the importance of social networks in the formulation of the political attachment of an individual.

In 1977, Gen. Zia-ul-Haq Martial Law regime banned political parties, political activities and started a campaign to depoliticize the Pakistani society. Gen. Zia held non- party local government elections in 1979 and 1983. As a result of party-less local bodies elections, contesting candidates contacted their social networks i.e., family relatives, tribe, friends rather than political party. After this successful experiment, Gen. Zia conducted party-less election in 1985. Party-less elections at national level strengthened social networks weakened political parties. Resultnatly, a major portion of parliament consisted on landed elites and feudal class. Rasul B. Raees argued that “ties to clan, tribe, or Biradari

(literally brotherhood) and feudal social basis, in particular, largely determined the outcome of elections” (Rais, 1985).

Andrew Wilder and Mughees Ahmad figured out that Biradari as a „primordial‟ group identity that including family, caste, and kinship which is playing a significant role in determining voting behaviour and political preferences of an individual (Wilder, 1999:177;

Ahmed, 2009). Ayesha Jalal (1995:105) argues that “a country where parties had never managed to strike roots, the Zia regime‟s systematic campaign to discredit politicians and politics gave renewed significance to the old personalized networks of Biradari

(brotherhood) or clan-based ties”. After the end of Zia‟s dictatorial regime, again the democratic practices started in Pakistan. In the second phase of democratization process from 1990 to 1996 three general elections contested but during that time the political

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government did not complete its five years tenure. In October 1997, Nawaz Sharif government was dismissed and Gen. Pervez Musharraf implemented third Martial Law in

Pakistan (Mehmood, 2015). Like previous martial administrators, Gen. Musharraf also adopted the similar strategy to dismantle the democratization process in Pakistan. He introduced local government system and amended the constitution. After the end of Gen.

Musharraf regime, the democratization process started in Pakistan. As a result of General

Elections 2008, for the first time in the history of Pakistan PPP with the support of other coalition parties completed its five years tenure.

Likewise, other parts of Pakistan the electorates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa elected three different political parties in the three different elections. Likewise, other political and economic determinants, social networks also playing a significant role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter examines the influence of social networks

(family, relatives and friends) in shaping individual voting behaviour. While in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa less scholarly attention has been devoted to understanding the link between social networks and voting behaviour. To test the role of social networks in shaping voting behaviour a four variable scale is made. Each variable is correlated with controlled variables

(gender, age, education, profession, marital status and geographical zones). The assessment of the data depicts the role of social networks in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

9.1.1 Gender Consideration

In Table-167, as far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, nominal number of men respondents and women respondents said that they want to vote that candidate who belongs to their tribe or kinship. However, several men and women respondents disagree to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

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Table No. 167 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? Gender Not at all No Don‟t To some extent To a large Total know extent Male 193 194 40 166 33 626 17.2% 17.3% 3.6% 14.8% 2.9% 55.8% Female 127 150 65 131 23 496 11.3% 13.4% 5.8% 11.7% 2% 44.2% Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square=16.259a, p-value=.003

9.1.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories (See in Table-168), a very small number of adults followed by youngsters, middle age respondents and elders supported the candidate on the basis of relationship with tribe and kinship. Contrary to that, among the total respondents some of the adults followed by a small number of youngster and middle age respondents denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, a small number of the senior citizens denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe and kinship.

The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Table No. 168 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? Don‟t To some To a large Total Age Not at No Know extent extent all 66 60 16 56 11 209 18-23 5.9% 5.3% 1.4% 5.0% 1.0% 18.6% 54 62 16 58 11 201 23-27 4.8% 5.5% 1.4% 5.2% 1.0% 17.9% 60 63 17 49 8 197 27-32 5.3% 5.6% 1.5% 4.4% 0.7% 17.6% 46 35 19 36 7 143 32-37 4.1% 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.6% 12.7% 41 45 10 42 8 146 37-42 3.7% 4.0% 0.9% 3.7% 0.7% 13.0% 27 35 21 26 7 116 42-50 2.4% 3.1% 1.9% 2.3% .6% 10.3% 26 44 6 30 4 110 Above 50 2.3% 3.9% 0.5% 2.7% 0.4% 9.8%

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320 344 105 297 56 1122 Total 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square=27.897a, p-value=.264

9.1.3 Professional Consideration

In Table-169, as far as profession is concerned, the smallest number of respondents of business community, followed by a minute portion of daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers and unemployed respondents agreed to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, some of the housewives agreed to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship.

On the other hand, various businessmen, government servants, non-government servants, unemployed and housewives disagreed to vote on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Whereas, a minimal number of farmers and daily wagers disagreed to vote on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Table No. 169 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? To To a Total Profession Not at all No Don‟t some large Know extent extent Business 38 34 9 20 9 110 3.4% 3.0% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 9.8% Daily wage 16 17 6 49 7 95 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 4.4% 0.6% 8.5% Government 73 75 18 39 8 213 Servant 6.5% 6.7% 1.6% 3.5% .7% 19% Non-government 51 63 13 19 5 151 servant 4.5% 5.6% 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 13.5% Farming 13 16 3 43 3 78 1.2% 1.4% 0.3% 3.8% 0.3% 7% Unemployed 56 56 16 41 8 177 5.0% 5.0% 1.4% 3.7% 0.7% 15.8% Housewives 73 83 40 86 16 298 6.5% 7.4% 3.6% 7.7% 1.4% 26.6% Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square= 1.138E2a, p-value=.000

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9.1.4 Income Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income groups (See in Table-170), some of the respondents of lower class and lower middle class respondents said that vote should be given to a candidate on the basis of tribe and kinship. But a meager number of middle, middle upper and upper class respondents accepted that vote should be given on the basis of tribal affiliation and kinship.

Conversely, several lower class, middle class, lower middle class and upper middle class respondents denied to vote a candidate on the basis of tribal affiliation and kinship.

The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between monthly income of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Table No. 170 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? Monthly Income Not at No Don‟t To some To a Total all Know extent large extent Below 10,000 64 59 25 85 12 245 5.7% 5.3% 2.2% 7.6% 1.1% 21.8% 10000-20000 43 59 7 47 9 165 3.8% 5.3% 0.6% 4.2% 0.8% 14.7% 20000-30000 39 59 16 28 7 149 3.5% 5.3% 1.4% 2.5% 0.6% 13.3% 30000-40000 26 14 7 24 2 73 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 6.5% 40000-50000 17 18 4 11 1 51 1.5% 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 4.5% Above 50000 22 22 4 3 1 52 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% Don‟t know 109 113 42 99 24 387 9.7% 10.1% 3.7% 8.8% 2.1% 34.5% Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square= 51.291a, p-value=.001

9.1.5 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels showed in Table-171, a tiny segment of secondary and higher secondary school level respondents accepted that vote

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should be given to a candidate on the basis of tribal affiliation. However, a minute portion of graduate and highly educated respondents said that they vote to a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. Whereas, a large segment of illiterate respondents supporting those candidates who belonged to their tribe or kinship in 2013 election.

Some of the respondents of secondary and higher secondary school certificate holders denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, a huge part of graduates and post-graduate respondents refused to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship relationship in 2013 election. Moreover, some of the illiterate respondents also renounce to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-

Square test is highly significant which shows an association between educational qualification of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Table No. 171 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? Don‟t To a large Total Education Not at all No To some know extent extent Primary 27 14 9 26 3 79 2.4% 1.2% .8% 2.3% .3% 7.0% Middle 22 16 8 36 7 89 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 3.2% .6% 7.9% Matric 41 60 18 67 10 196 3.7% 5.3% 1.6% 6.0% 0.9% 17.5% Intermediate 27 39 12 16 9 103 2.4% 3.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 9.2% BA/BSc 52 63 15 44 7 181 4.6% 5.6% 1.3% 3.9% 0.6% 16.1% MA/MSc 115 103 14 30 6 268 10.2% 9.2% 1.2% 2.7% 0.5% 23.9% M.Phil 10 3 1 9 0 23 .9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% .0% 2.0% Illiterate 26 46 28 69 14 183 2.3% 4.1% 2.5% 6.1% 1.2% 16.3% Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square= 1.385E2a, p-value=.000

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9.1.6 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (See in

Table-172), some of the respondents of central and southern region accepted to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship in 2013 General Elections. However, a minimum number of the respondents of northern region admit that they voted to those candidates who belong to their tribe or kinship in 2013 election.

A large number of the respondents of northern region, central region and southern region did not agree to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.

Table No. 172 Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship? Geographical Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total Region Know extent extent North 131 155 22 51 21 380 11.7% 13.8% 2.0% 4.5% 1.9% 33.9% Center 88 103 47 109 13 360 7.8% 9.2% 4.2% 9.7% 1.2% 32.1% South 101 86 36 137 22 382 9.0% 7.7% 3.2% 12.2% 2.0% 34.0% Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122 28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100% Chi-Square=80.504a, p-value=.000

9.2 INFLUENCE OF MASHAR (ELDER) OF THE FAMILY ON VOTE CHOICE

James C. Davies (1965) argued that family has a central role in shaping the individual‟s political personality. Therefore a teenager tends to adopt their parents' outlook towards the political system. A father is ideal for his children. James C. Davies also stated that an individual getting experience from familial and other social circumstances in which s/he improves from the level of dependency to independence (Davies, 1965). Some of the youngsters are politically alienate with their parental political affiliation and some disagree

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with parents. The main reason for this alienation is strict parental control, which sometimes works to conforming youngster and while others more deviant from their parents.

Maccoby et al., (1959) argued that in some highly politicized families, politics is available as an object of protest. In this part of the chapter, it is tried to identify those voters who are politically dependent on their family elders. For this purpose, a question asked from the respondents that, “Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family

(Mashar) elder supports”. It is correlated with gender, age, profession, education, income and geographical regions to identify the effects of all these variables.

9.2.1 Gender Consideration

In Table-173 as far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, a number of male respondents and female respondents said that a vote should be given to that candidate who has our family elder‟s support. However, a great number of male and female respondents disagree to vote that candidate who has the support of their family elder (Mashar).

Moreover, a minimal number of the men and women show their uncertain response. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 173 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Gender Not at all No Don‟t To some To a Total Know extent large extent 200 196 59 118 53 626 Male 17.8% 17.5% 5.3% 10.5% 4.7% 55.8% 121 129 76 138 32 496 Female 10.8% 11.5% 6.8% 12.3% 2.9% 44.2% 321 325 135 256 85 1122 Total 28.6% 29.0% 12.0% 22.8% 7.6% 100.0% Chi-Square=27.452a, p-value=.000

9.2.2 Age Consideration

Among the total respondents of different age categories (See in Table-174), a small number of adults, youngsters and middle age respondents agree to vote that contesting candidate 251

who has their family elder‟s (Mashar) support. Whereas, a meager number of respondents of senior citizens were also supporting the idea that vote should be given to that candidate who has support of the family‟s elder (Mashar).

Contrary to that, among the total respondents, a large number of adults, teenagers and young people disagree to vote a candidate who has the support of their family‟s elder

(Mashar). On the other hand, a small number of senior and middle age respondents differ to vote that candidate who has the support of their family‟s elder (Mashar). The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 174 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Don‟t To some To a large Total Age Not at No Know extent extent all 18-23 62 61 22 42 22 209 5.5% 5.4% 2% 3.7% 2% 18.6% 23-27 58 69 25 37 12 201 5.2% 6.1% 2.2% 3.3% 1.1% 17.9% 27-32 66 47 30 46 8 197 5.9% 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% .7% 17.6% 32-37 43 40 12 37 11 143 3.8% 3.6% 1.1% 3.3% 1% 12.7% 37-42 42 42 14 32 16 146 3.7% 3.7% 1.2% 2.9% 1.4% 13.0% 42-50 25 30 17 36 8 116 2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 3.2% 0.7% 10.3% Above 25 36 15 26 8 110 50 2.2% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.7% 9.8% Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 30.341a, p-value=.174

9.2.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned, among the total respondents a minimal number of the respondents of business community admit to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Some of the daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers and unemployed agree to vote a candidate without the consultation of their family

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elder. Among the total respondents many housewives accepted to vote that candidate who has their family elder (Mashar) support.

On the other hand, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives denied voting that candidate who has our family elder support. In Table-9 Chi-square test provides highly significant p-value. The p-value<0.05 shows that there is an association between the profession of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 175 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom our family (Mashar) elder supports. Not at all No Don‟t To some To a large Total Profession Know extent extent 43 33 13 18 3 110 Business 3.8% 2.9% 1.2% 1.6% 0.3% 9.8% 15 19 17 28 16 95 Daily-wagers 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% 1.4% 8.5% 73 70 23 38 9 213 Government Servant 6.5% 6.2% 2% 3.4% 0.8% 19.0% 61 55 9 22 4 151 Non-government 5.4% 4.9% 0.8% 2.0% 0.4% 13.5% servant 11 20 6 25 16 78 Farming 1.0% 1.8% .5% 2.2% 1.4% 7.0% 52 59 26 27 13 177 Unemployed 4.6% 5.3% 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 15.8% 66 69 41 98 24 298 Housewives 5.9% 6.1% 3.7% 8.7% 2.1% 26.6% 321 325 135 256 85 1122 Total 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 1.225E2a, p-value=.000

9.2.4 Income Consideration

In Table-176, among the total respondents of different income levels, some of the respondents of lower income class and lower middle class said that vote should be given to those candidates who have their family elder‟s support. However, meager number of middle class, middle upper and upper class respondents confessed to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Whereas, a large of respondents who did not mention their

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monthly income responded that vote should be given to that candidate who is supported by your family elder‟s (Mashar).

Conversely, some of the lower income class followed by lower middle class and middle class respondents oppose to vote a candidate who has their family elder‟s support. A small number of middle and upper middle class also denied to vote a candidate who has their family elder‟s support. A large number of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income denied vote that candidate who has their family‟s elder (Mashar) support.

The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between income of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder

(Mashar) support.

Table No.176 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Monthly Income Not at No Don‟t To To a large Total all Know some extent extent Below 10,000 62 55 29 63 36 245 5.5% 4.9% 2.6% 5.6% 3.2% 21.8% 10000-20000 43 57 15 40 10 165 3.8% 5.1% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9% 14.7% 20000-30000 48 53 16 27 5 149 4.3% 4.7% 1.4% 2.4% 0.4% 13.3% 30000-40000 26 16 9 17 5 73 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 6.5% 40000-50000 16 22 4 8 1 51 1.4% 2% .4% 0.7% 0.1% 4.5% Above 50000 26 17 1 8 0 52 2.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.7% .0% 4.6% Don‟t know 100 105 61 93 28 387 8.9% 9.4% 5.4% 8.3% 2.5% 34.5% Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 68.569a, p-value=.000

9.2.5 Marital Status Consideration

As far as marital status is concerned, in Table-177, among the total respondents, some of the married respondents agree to vote a candidate who has their family elder‟s support. While, a

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minor number of unmarried and widows said that a vote should be given to that candidate who has your family‟s elder (Mashar) support.

A huge number of married, unmarried and widows did not agree to vote a candidate who has our family‟s elder support. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between marital status of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 177 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Marital Not at No Don‟t To some To a large Total Status all Know extent extent Married 188 202 81 170 68 709 16.8% 18.0% 7.2% 15.2% 6.1% 63.2% Unmarri 125 118 51 79 17 390 ed 11.1% 10.5% 4.5% 7.0% 1.5% 34.8% Widow 8 5 3 7 0 23 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 2% Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 17.286a, p-value=.027

9.2.6 Educational Consideration

In terms of education showed in Table-178, among the total respondents, a small number of secondary school level and higher secondary school level respondents agree to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Whereas, some of the graduates and postgraduate level respondents accept to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. While, among the respondents, relatively a large number of illiterate are supporting their family elder‟s choice.

Some of the respondents of secondary school and higher secondary school level oppose to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Nevertheless, a large number of graduate and post-graduate respondents refuse to vote that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. However, a minimal number of illiterate respondents denied that vote should be given to that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. The P- value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between 255

educational qualification of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 178 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Educational To some To a large Not at all No Don‟t Total qualification extent extent Know Primary 23 15 11 22 8 79 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 2% 0.7% 7% Middle 20 21 6 28 14 89 1.8% 1.9% 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 7.9% Matric 41 55 39 48 13 196 3.7% 4.9% 3.5% 4.3% 1.2% 17.5% Intermediate 35 32 11 20 5 103 3.1% 2.9% 1.0% 1.8% 0.4% 9.2% BA/BSc 58 56 19 41 7 181 5.2% 5.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.6% 16.1% MA/MSc 111 101 15 31 10 268 9.9% 9.0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.9% 23.9% M.Phil 11 5 1 3 3 23 1.0% .4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0% Illiterate 22 40 33 63 25 183 2.0% 3.6% 2.9% 5.6% 2.2% 16.3% Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 1.457E2a, p-value=.000

9.2.7 Regional Consideration

Among the total respondents of different regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (See in Table-

179), some of the respondents of central region and northern region agreed that vote should be give to that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. Whereas, a minimal number of the respondents of northern districts accepted that vote should be given to that candidate who is supported by their family‟s elder.

A large number of respondents of northern region followed by central region agree to vote that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. However, some of the respondents of southern region denied voting that candidate who has our family elder

(Mashar) support. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which

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shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.

Table No. 179 Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports. Don‟t To some To a large Total Geographical Not at all No Know extent extent Regions 131 151 30 57 11 380 North 11.7% 13.5% 2.7% 5.1% 1.0% 33.9% 78 85 60 115 22 360 Center 7.0% 7.6% 5.3% 10.2% 2.0% 32.1% 112 89 45 84 52 382 South 10.0% 7.9% 4.0% 7.5% 4.6% 34% 321 325 135 256 85 1122 Total 28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100% Chi-Square= 99.395a, p-value=.000

9.3 INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS ON VOTE CHOICE

In Punjab, Hamza Alavi figured out that when a voter is economically dependent on a landlord (Chaudhary) then the voter should support the landlord‟s preferred political party in the election. Therefore, in different constituencies landlords (Chaudhary and Khans) have a vote bank of peasants (Ahmad, 1977:11). Shandana Khan Mohmand argued that modern technology changed the social structure of every society. She stated that infrastructure and urbanization led political mobilization in rural Punjab. Modernization amplified the autonomy of voters but still the voters‟ relationship with local landlords as patron-client.

She opines that social structure and caste system are the major determinants of voting behaviour for villages in Punjab (Mohmand, 2011).

Mathew Nelson (2011) opined that landed aristocracy use traditional village level informal institutions and kinship during elections in Punjab. Consequently, Chaudharys

(Landlords in Punjab) of PML-N is continuously winning every election in Punjab.

However, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the situation is entirely different. Like the Chaudharys of Punjab, the Khans of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also have the ownership of a large area of land. But in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Khans are not influencing the autonomy of voters. That

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is why in each election different political party came into power in three elections (i.e.,

2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unlike the influence of landed aristocracy in Punjab, the social networks in the shape of family, relatives and friends influencing the individual vote choice.

Mark S. Granovetter (1973) argued that network is easy and inexpensive way of sharing information among people. Therefore, common people are sharing political information with each other and that shape the political attitudes of an individual. Family, friends and relatives are the most important elements of social networks. During the survey, it is asked from the respondents, “Who influence your vote‟s decision? The reaction of the respondents is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age, profession, education, income, marital status and geographical regions) and analyzed the data by Chi-square test.

9.3.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned in Table-180, among the total respondents, some of the male and female respondents said that their vote‟s decision is influenced by the head of the family, while a small number of male and female respondents argued that their friends influence their vote decision. However, insignificant number of male and female respondents asserted that their relatives influence their vote decision. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 180 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Gender Head of Friends Relatives Party Candidate No one Don‟t Total the Know family Male 133 34 29 107 67 209 47 626 11.9% 3% 2.6% 9.5% 6% 18.6% 4.2% 55.8% Female 159 20 33 60 58 123 43 496 14.2% 1.8% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% 11% 3.8% 44.2% Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square= 27.845a, p-value=.000

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9.3.2 Age Consideration

In Table-181, among the total respondents of different age categories, some of the adults, teenagers, middle and elder respondents admitted that the head of the family influence their decision to vote, while various adults, youngsters, middle age and senior respondents acknowledge that their vote choice swayed by friends.

Moreover, among the total respondents, a meager portion of adults, youth, middle age and old age respondents accepted that their vote choice is influenced by relatives. The

P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 181 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Age Head of Friend Relati Party Candid No one Don‟t Total the family s ves ate Know 18-23 62 11 12 30 21 54 19 209 5.5% 1.0% 1.1% 2.7% 1.9% 4.8% 1.7% 18.6% 23-27 51 10 14 28 26 55 17 201 4.5% 0.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.3% 4.9% 1.5% 17.9% 27-32 50 7 7 24 18 77 14 197 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 6.9% 1.2% 17.6% 32-37 31 9 6 29 19 43 6 143 2.8% 0.8% 0.5% 2.6% 1.7% 3.8% 0.5% 12.7% 37-42 44 3 7 20 15 46 11 146 3.9% 0.3% 0.6% 1.8% 1.3% 4.1% 1.0% 13.0% 42-50 32 9 8 11 13 32 11 116 2.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 2.9% 1.0% 10.3% Above 50 22 5 8 25 13 25 12 110 2.0% .4% .7% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 1.1% 9.8% Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square= 41.558a, p-value=.241

9.3.3 Professional Consideration

As far as profession is concerned in Table-182, among the total respondents, a small number of business community, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and some of the housewives stated that their vote choice is influenced by the head of the family. Nonetheless, a negligible number of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and

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housewives said that their vote‟s decision is influenced by friends. On the other hand, a small number of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, jobless and housewives accepted that vote‟s decision influenced by relatives. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 182 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Profession Head of Friends Relative Party Candidate No one Don‟t Total the family s Know Business 24 11 5 25 11 26 8 110 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 2.2% 1.0% 2.3% 0.7% 9.8% Daily wager 37 3 7 11 13 15 9 95 3.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 8.5% Government 41 13 5 34 22 84 14 213 Servant 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3% 2% 7.5% 1.2% 19.0% Non- 18 7 8 27 16 67 8 151 government 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% 1.4% 6% 0.7% 13.5% servant Farming 31 2 5 10 10 16 4 78 2.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 7% Unemployed 40 4 12 20 21 66 14 177 3.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 5.9% 1.2% 15.8% Housewives 101 14 20 40 32 58 33 298 9% 1.2% 1.8% 3.6% 2.9% 5.2% 2.9% 26.6% Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square=1.102E2a, p-value=.000

9.3.4 Income Consideration

Among the total respondents of different income groups showed in Table-183, a large number of respondents of lower class and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income responded that head of the family influence their vote‟s choice. While a small number of lower middle class, middle class and upper class accepted that the head of the family influence their vote‟s choice.

Whereas, an insignificant number of lower, middle and upper classes respondents admitted that the friends influence their vote choice. However, relatively large number of

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the respondents who did not mention their income accepted the influence of friends on their vote‟s decision. Nevertheless, a meager number of poor, middle and upper class opined that their vote‟s decision is influenced by relatives. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between income of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 183 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Monthly Head of Don‟t Friend Relati Party Candidate No one Total Income the family Know s ves 80 7 17 32 27 63 19 245 Below 7.1% 0.6% 1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 5.6% 1.7% 21.8% 10,000 35 8 9 30 22 46 15 165 10000- 3.1% 0.7% 0.8% 2.7% 2% 4.1% 1.3% 14.7% 20000 26 11 6 26 13 60 7 149 20000- 30000 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 5.3% 0.6% 13.3% 11 6 2 12 11 27 4 73 30000- 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 0.4% 6.5% 40000 6 2 3 13 4 19 4 51 40000- 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.5% 50000 8 1 1 10 3 27 2 52 Above 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% 4.6% 50000 126 19 24 44 45 90 39 387 Don‟t know 11.2% 1.7% 2.1% 3.9% 4.0% 8.0% 3.5% 34.5% 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 Total 26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square= 80.874a, p-value=.000

9.3.5 Marital Status Consideration

As far as marital status is concerned, among the total respondents, a huge number of married respondents responded that head of the family influence their vote‟s choice, while some of the unmarried and a meager segment of widows said that head of the family influence their vote‟s decision (See in Table No. 184).

A small number of married and unmarried respondents accepted the influence of friends in their vote‟s decision. Moreover, among the total respondents, an insignificant number of married, unmarried and widows responded that relatives have an influence on

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their vote‟s decision. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between marital status of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 184 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Head of Don‟t Total Marital Status Friend Relativ Party Candida No the know s es te one family 194 32 34 109 72 208 60 709 Married 17.3% 2.9% 3% 9.7% 6.4% 18.5 5.3% 63.2% % 92 22 26 55 50 118 27 390 Unmarried 8.2% 2.0% 2.3% 4.9% 4.5% 10.5 2.4% 34.8%

% 6 0 2 3 3 6 3 23 Widow 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.0% 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 Total 26.0% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6 8% 100% % Chi-Square= 8.850a, p-value=.716

9.3.6 Educational Consideration

Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-185), minimum number of the secondary and higher secondary school level respondents confessed that head of the family influence their vote‟s decision. Whereas, some of the graduate and post- graduate level respondents argued that head of the family influence their vote‟s decision.

While a large number of illiterate respondents said that head of the family influence our vote‟s decision.

A meager number of secondary level, higher secondary and graduates, post-graduate level and illiterate respondents accepted that friends influence their vote‟s decision. On the other hand, an insignificant number of secondary school level, higher secondary school level, graduate and post-graduate level accepted the influence of relatives on their vote‟s decision. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an

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association between educational qualification of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

Table No. 185 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Educational Head of Friends Relati Party Candida No one Don‟t Total qualification the ves te know family Primary 21 4 6 6 11 17 14 79 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 7% Middle 32 7 8 16 12 11 3 89 2.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 7.9% Matric 54 12 13 30 24 55 8 196 4.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.1% 4.9% 0.7% 17.5% Intermediate 23 7 3 15 10 40 5 103 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 3.6% 0.4% 9.2% BA/BSc 38 10 8 33 17 55 20 181 3.4% .9% .7% 2.9% 1.5% 4.9% 1.8% 16.1% MA/MSc 41 5 12 49 24 121 16 268 3.7% 0.4% 1.1% 4.4% 2.1% 10.8% 1.4% 23.9% M.Phil 5 2 0 2 4 9 1 23 0.4% 0.2% .0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 2.0% Illiterate 78 7 12 16 23 24 23 183 7.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 16.3% Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 26.0% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square= 1.483E2a, p-value=.000

9.3.7 Regional Consideration

Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, some of the respondents of central, northern and southern regions accepted that their vote decision was influenced by head of the family. Nevertheless, a meager number of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions responded that friends influence their vote‟s preferences (See in Table No.186).

A minor portion of the respondents of northern, central and southern districts said that relatives influence their vote‟s decision. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.

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Table No. 186 Who influence your vote‟s decision? Geograp Head of the Don‟t Friends Relative Party Candidat No one Total hical family know s e Region North 58 20 20 62 34 162 24 380 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 5.5% 3.0% 14.4% 2.1% 33.9% Center 97 17 22 50 52 83 39 360 8.6% 1.5% 2.0% 4.5% 4.6% 7.4% 3.5% 32.1% South 137 17 20 55 39 87 27 382 12.2% 1.5% 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 7.8% 2.4% 34% Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122 26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100% Chi-Square= 76.518a, p-value=.000

9.4 RATIONALE OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013

In General Elections 2013 voters support contesting candidates on the basis of different

reasons. Many voters were inspired from the candidate religious attachment, while others

believed that candidate belong to their political party therefore, they are supporting that

candidate. Some of the voters argued that we are favoring that candidate who has popular

support in the constituency. However, honest and uncorrupt candidates also have the support

from common voters. Lastly, some of the people give their vote to those candidates who

belonged to their family or tribe. In this part of the study a comparative strategy uses to

identify different kind of voters. Therefore, five options were given to the respondents about

the candidate. A question is asked from the respondents that, “Why you cast vote in favour

of that candidate in 2013 General Elections? The response of the people correlated with

gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions of the respondents.

9.4.1 Gender Consideration

As far as gender is concerned in Table-187, among the total respondents, some of the male

respondents and female respondents said that they vote to that candidate who belonged to

their family. On the other hand, the rest of male and female respondents supported the

candidate on the basis of popularity, party affiliation, religion and honesty. The P-

value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between 264

gender of the respondents and the reasons of support to different candidates in 2013 election.

Table No. 187 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Gender Candida He is a He is He is Because He Don‟t Any Total te religio not a not a majority belon Know other belonge us secula corrupt people gs to reason d to our person r person support our family person him party Male 50 160 26 71 43 134 48 94 626 4.5% 14.3% 2.3% 6.3% 3.8% 11.9% 4.3% 8.4% 55.8% Female 33 105 14 76 41 72 36 119 496 2.9% 9.4% 1.2% 6.8% 3.7% 6.4% 3.2% 10.6% 44.2% Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122 7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100% Chi-square test=27.328a, p-value=.000

9.4.2 Age Consideration

As far as age is concerned, among the total respondents, a small number of adults, teenagers, middle and elderly respondents said that they support to that candidate in election who belonged to their family. However, a large number of adults, youngsters, middle and old age respondents a candidate on the basis of religiosity, party affiliation, sincerity and popularity among the people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and the reasons of support to different candidates in 2013 election (See Table No.188).

Table No. 188 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Age of the Candidate He is a He is He is Because He Don‟t Any Total respondents belonged religious not a not a majority belongs know other to our person secular corrupt people to our reason family person person support party him 18-23 16 51 13 30 15 23 20 41 209 1.4% 4.5% 1.2% 2.7% 1.3% 2% 1.8% 3.7% 18.6% 23-27 14 43 12 36 12 38 8 38 201 1.2% 3.8% 1.1% 3.2% 1.1% 3.4% 0.7% 3.4% 17.9% 27-32 9 48 3 21 15 50 15 36 197 0.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.9% 1.3% 4.5% 1.3% 3.2% 17.6% 32-37 11 35 3 14 12 31 16 21 143 265

1% 3.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 1.9% 12.7% 37-42 14 37 1 19 10 20 9 36 146 1.2% 3.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 3.2% 13% 42-50 13 18 5 14 9 27 8 22 116 1.2% 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 2% 10.3% Above 50 6 33 3 13 11 17 8 19 110 0.5% 2.9% 0.3% 1.2% 1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 9.8% Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122 7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100% Chi-square test=61.946a, p-value=.024

9.4.3 Professional Consideration

In terms of profession (See in Table-189), a significant number of businessmen, daily

wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers and housewives stated that

they give priority to that contesting candidate in election who belonged to their family.

Nevertheless, a large number of respondents supported candidates on the basis of party

affiliation, religiosity, honesty and popularity among the common people. The P-value<0.05

of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession

of the respondents and the reasons of support to different candidates in 2013 election.

Table No. 189 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Profession Candida He is a He is not He is not a Because He Don‟t Any Total te religio a secular corrupt majority belong know other belonge us person person people s to reason d to our person support our family him party Business 8 28 2 11 5 27 11 18 110 0.7% 2.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.4% 1.0% 1.6% 9.8% daily wage 4 29 10 5 10 13 8 16 95 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 8.5% Governme 18 50 8 30 7 38 14 48 213 nt Servant 1.6% 4.5% 0.7% 2.7% 0.6% 3.4% 1.2% 4.3% 19.0% Non- 14 23 4 17 14 44 10 25 151 governme 1.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% 3.9% 0.9% 2.2% 13.5% nt servant Farming 7 29 5 11 8 7 3 8 78

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0.6% 2.6% .4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 7.0% Unemploy 14 36 4 24 14 36 16 33 177 ed 1.2% 3.2% .4% 2.1% 1.2% 3.2% 1.4% 2.9% 15.8% Housewiv 18 70 7 49 26 41 22 65 298 es 1.6% 6.2% 0.6% 4.4% 2.3% 3.7% 2.0% 5.8% 26.6% Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122 7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100% Chi-square test= 83.804a, p-value=.000 9.4.4 Income Consideration

Among the respondents of different income groups showed in Table-190, some of the

lower, middle and upper class respondents reacted that they vote to that candidate in 2013

election who belonged to their family. However, the rest of the respondents of poor, middle

and upper class support the candidate on the basis of honesty, party affiliation, religiosity

and public popularity. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which

shows an association between income of the respondents and the reasons of support to

different candidates in 2013 election.

Table No. 190 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Income Candidat He is a He is He is Because He Don‟t Any Total e religious not a not a majority belongs to know other belonged person secular corrupt people our party reason to our person person support family him Below1 21 74 15 26 13 38 22 36 245 0,000 1.9% 6.6% 1.3% 2.3% 1.2% 3.4% 2.0% 3.2% 21.8% 10000- 9 39 5 16 18 37 17 24 165 20000 0.8% 3.5% 0.4% 1.4% 1.6% 3.3% 1.5% 2.1% 14.7% 20000- 10 34 8 15 7 31 10 34 149 30000 0.9% 3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% 0.9% 3.0% 13.3% 30000- 6 18 2 17 3 10 2 15 73 40000 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 1.3% 6.5% 40000- 6 15 0 4 2 10 7 7 51 50000 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.5% Above 4 10 2 2 1 18 2 13 52 50000 0.4% .9% .2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% .2% 1.2% 4.6% Don‟t 27 75 8 67 40 62 24 84 387

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know 2.4% 6.7% .7% 6.0% 3.6% 5.5% 2.1% 7.5% 34.5% Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122 7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100% Chi-square test=85.499a, p-value=.000

9.4.5 Educational Consideration

As far as education is concerned, among the total respondents some of the literate that

included primary to post-graduate level and illiterate respondents support a candidate

because he/she belonged to their family. On the other hand, a large number of respondents

support a candidate on the basis of party affiliation, honesty, religiosity and popularity

among the people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which

shows an association between education of the respondents and the reasons of support to

different candidates in 2013 election (See Table No.191).

Table No. 191 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Educatio Candidate He is a He is He is Because He Don‟t Any Total n belonged religio not a not a majority belongs know other to our us secular corrupt people to our reason family person person person support him party Primary 5 26 1 10 8 10 7 12 79 0.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 7% Middle 5 33 5 9 7 18 7 5 89 0.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 7.9% Matric 15 50 12 31 16 28 26 18 196 1.3% 4.5% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.6% 17.5% Intermedi 9 19 4 10 4 20 11 26 103 ate 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 1.8% 1% 2.3% 9.2% BA/BSc 17 37 4 35 11 21 7 49 181 1.5% 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 4.4% 16.1% MA/MSc 21 45 9 31 13 79 18 52 268 1.9% 4% 0.8% 2.8% 1.2% 7.0% 1.6% 4.6% 23.9% M.Phil 4 8 2 0 2 2 1 4 23 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% .0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2% Illiterate 7 47 3 21 23 28 7 47 183 0.6% 4.2% 0.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 0.6% 4.2% 16.3% Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122 7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100% Chi-Square test= 1.381E2a, p-value=.000

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9.4.6 Regional Consideration

In terms of regional consideration (See in Table-192), among the total respondents, some of

the respondents of northern, central and southern regions affirmed to give priority to that

candidate in election who belonged to their family. On other hand, a large number of the

respondents of northern, central and southern geographical regions support candidates

because of their honesty, religiosity, party affiliation and popularity among the common

people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an

association between geographical region of the respondents and the reasons of support to

different candidates in 2013 election.

Table No. 192 Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections Geo Fami He is a He is He is not Because He Don‟t Any Candid Total grap ly religious not a a corrupt majority belongs know other ate hical relati person secula person people to our reason belonge Regi ons r support party d to our on person him family Nort 23 48 11 55 22 83 28 96 14 380 h 2.0% 4.3% 1.0% 4.9% 2.0% 7.4% 2.5% 8.6% 1.2% 33.9% Cent 7 75 9 43 38 60 13 103 12 360 er 0.6% 6.7% 0.8% 3.8% 3.4% 5.3% 1.2% 9.2% 1.1% 32.1% Sout 21 142 20 49 24 63 43 14 6 382 h 1.9% 12.7% 1.8% 4.4% 2.1% 5.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.5% 34% Tota 51 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 32 1122 l 4.5% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 2.9% 100% Chi-square test=1.650E2a, p-value=.000

Summary

There are different socio-political and psychological determinants of voting behaviour in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The dominant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa are party identification, religion, issues and personality. Similarly, social

networks (family, friends, relatives) also playing a key role in shaping the political

behaviour of the electorate in the election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the Pakhtun society

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still, social networks have a strong bond. Social networks have a direct link with the political socialization of an individual.

To sum up we can say that social networks have the significant role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A multi-variable scale use to identify those voters whose vote choice is dependent on social networks. In the survey, a considerable number of respondents agreed to vote a candidate who belongs to their tribe or kinship. On the other hand, a significant number of respondents said that vote should be given to that candidate who is supported by the family (Mashar) elder. Lastly, when a question is asked that who influences your vote decision? Among the total respondents, a major portion of the respondents said that the family head influences their vote choice. However, a small number of said friends and relatives influence their vote choice. The assessment of the data shows that social networks are one of the significant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

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CONCLUSION

The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is full of ups and downs of the different political parties. The first election in the history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was conducted in 1932 before the creation of Pakistan. Since 1932, the electoral process continues in different political regimes. Nonetheless, these political regimes had influence on the elections results and political parties‟ positions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa has been the centre of ethno-nationalist, leftist and religious political parties that include Awami National Party, Pakistan People Party, Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-F, Jamiat

Ulema-e-Islam-S, Jamaat-e-Islami and Qawmi Watan Party. These political parties actively participate in the electoral politics. Vote bank of contesting political parties has been changing and fluctuating in each election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Hence, different political parties came into power in three (2002, 2008 and 2013) elections. In general elections 2002,

Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) a group of six religious political parties was voted to power. Religious factor was more dominant in shaping voting behaviour in the majority constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the polls. However, in general elections 2008, the electorates of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa voted out MMA and elected Awami National Party

(ANP) and Pakistan People Party (PPP) with a majority vote. In 2008 elections, ethnicity, partisanship, local issues (terrorism and energy crisis) influence the voters‟ preferences.

Contrary to that, in general elections 2013, voters rejected Awami National Party (ANP)

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and religious political parties by supporting Pakistan Tehreek- e-Insaf (PTI) with a majority vote. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has caused a major dent in the vote-bank of Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-F, Awami National Party and Pakistan Peoples

Party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The slogan „Change‟ different from the slogans of other political parties attracted the electorates. This overall political scenario identified a considerable ratio of floating voters that affected the elections results in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. The study found that floating voters have changed their political loyalties in 271

each election. Therefore, different political parties get the majority voters support in each election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Although, the data depict that majority of the voters are partisan voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, yet, it is still presumed that floating voters manipulate the elections result.

During the election campaign, the political parties and contesting candidates are using party slogans, personal influence, national and international issues, religion and social networks to convince the partisan and the floating voters. To identify floating voters the researcher compared the results of the three recent general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) of the six national assembly constituencies. The comparison of the three elections results of each constituency shows that the vote bank of winning political party/candidate is lesser than its previous vote bank. This variation of party vote bank in each election exposes a shift of voters‟ preferences from one political party to the other one. To operationalize the floating voters‟ hypothesis the researcher used a four variables scale. The inference of the first variable represents that many respondents decide to vote one day prior or on polling day. Secondly, a significant number of voters did not even read the manifesto of the political party. Those respondents who decide to vote one day before or on polling day predict their lack of interest in electoral processes, while those who did not read the manifesto of a political party have less political understanding and knowledge about the political parties. Therefore, such voters may easily change their political affiliation and voting preferences. Thirdly, a considerable number of respondents showed their un- satisfaction with the party voted to power in elections. Lastly, a large number of respondents did not participate in party meetings even though they were having membership of the party. The voter‟s un-satisfaction from a political party they voted in election presumed their distrust in the party. In such a case the voter can switch to other political parties in the next election. Nonetheless, voter‟s lack of participation in party meetings may

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change his political affiliation or voting preferences. All these inferences identified a considerable number of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The party identification theory sorted out a large number of partisan voters among the respondents. The findings of the study present different results than those of

Farmanullah and Fakhrul Islam (2014) who argued that party identification is not a determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The findings of the data figured out completely different statistics of party affiliated voters in General Elections 2013, as majority of the respondents have the membership of political parties. A large number of respondents have a perception that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation, thus making party identification a significant determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

Another important determinant of voting behaviour is issue voting. The „Issue

Ownership Theory‟ and „The Riding the Wave Theory‟ were operationalized to identify the issue voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The data shows that local and national issues played a significant role in shaping voting behaviour in General Elections 2013. A three variable model scale is used for measuring the issue voting. The first variable is voter‟s identification of issues such as terrorism, poverty, illiteracy, energy crisis, unemployment etc.

Nonetheless, a significant number of respondents agreed that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, load-shedding and terrorism. On the other hand, a major portion of respondents opined that vote should be cast for the political party that can resolve the local issues. Thus it can be concluded that local and national issues consistently influence the voters‟ preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The candidate‟s personality is also an important determinant which influences the voters‟ choice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are a considerable number of independent candidates who contested elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The supporters of independent candidates are inspired primarily from the candidate‟s personal influence. It is observed that

273

some candidates who contested elections have more influence in the particular constituency than the political parties. Therefore, political parties are intended to allot tickets to those candidates who have personal influence in their constituencies. By applying „Five Factor

Model (FFM) of Personality‟ data was analyzed and tested which sorted out the role of the candidate‟s personality in shaping voting behaviour. The perception of vote choice and the candidate‟s personality variable was endorsed by a large number of respondents. Many respondents believed that vote should be given on the basis of the personality of a candidate. The second important variable is the candidate‟s participation in the social activities i.e., joys and sorrows (Gham Aw Khadi) etc. In the opinion of a significant number of respondents, vote should be cast to that candidate who is participating in the social activities of common people. Nevertheless, some of the respondents accepted that vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically influential. While, many of respondents said that vote should be given to an independent candidate rather than the political party‟s candidate. The assessment of the data depicted that the personality of the candidate also influenced the voting behaviour in 2013 elections in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa.

Religion is also assumed to be a key factor in determining the voting behaviour of people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is also observed that the ratio of religious political parties‟ voters is growing in each election. The inferences of the data identified that religion have a great impact on voters‟ choice in election. A three variable scale was used to find out religious voting. Some of the respondents want the implementation of „Sharia Law‟ in

Pakistan hence; they were supporting religious political parties. They believed that except religious political no one can implement „Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. In their opinion only religious political parties (JUI-F, JI and JUI-S) in Pakistan should be allowed. In many of the respondents opinion vote is a sacred responsibility which only be given to the people who are eligible for that and the religious political parties have the most appropriate people

274

in their ranks, hence, vote should be given to religious political parties only. The assessment of the data demonstrated that religion in also a significant determinant of voting behaviour in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Social networks are important elements of the Pakhtun social structure. The existence of strong social structure in Pakhtun society, social networks have an important role in the individual life. Hence, social networks (family, friends, elders and relatives) effectively influence the voters‟ preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The assessment of the data revealed that social networks are also key determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. A significant number of respondents argued to vote for a candidate who belongs to their tribe or kinship. Apart from that, a considerable number of respondents opined that vote should be given to that candidate who is being supported by the family elder (Mashar). Lastly, on the question, “who influenced their voting decision”, a significant number of respondents admitted that head of the family and friends playing a key role in their vote choice. Some of the respondents said that their relatives influence their vote preferences. The estimation of the data shows that social networks are also one of the significant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

This study identifies some other areas in electoral study in Pakistan in general and in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in particular for future studies in the field. For example why political parties are weak in Pakistan/Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Why the ratio of turnout in elections is low in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Why is political parties‟ membership declining day by day?

Why people vote for independent candidates in elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? How is the female voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Are female voters independently using their vote in elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? These are some areas of research which need further exploration in M.Phil and PhD level studies.

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APPENDIX

Questionnaire

Assalam-o-Alikum

My name is Hassan Shah. I am a Ph. D Scholar in the Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar. My research topic is, “Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: An Analysis of Partisan and Floating Voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in General Elections 2013”. I need your cooperation to fill this questionnaire. I will be very grateful to you.

(Part 1)

Note: Encircle or Tick the correct answer (√)

A. Gender: 1). Male 2). Female B. Age: 1). 18-23 2). 23-27 3). 27-32 4). 32-37 5). 37-42 6). 42-50 7). Above 50 C. Profession: 1). Business 2). Daily wage 3). Government Servant 4). Non- government Servant 5). Forming 6). Unemployed 7). House wife 8). Retired 9). Any other….. D. Monthly income: 1). Less than 10000 2). 10000-20000 3). 20000-30000 4). 30000- 40000 5). 40000-50000 6). Above 50000 7). Don‟t know E. Marital Status: 1). Married 2). Unmarried 3). Widow F. Qualification: 1). Primary 2). Middle 3). Metric 4). Intermediate 5). BA/Bsc 6). Master 7). M.Phil/MS/PhD 8). Illiterate 9). Any Other………………….. G. Mother Tongue: 1). Pashto 2). Kuwar H. Union Council…………………… I. District……………………………

(Part 2)

1. Is voting a national duty? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 2. Did you cast vote in 2013 General elections? 1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t Remember 3. Did you satisfy from the party which you voted in 2013 General elections?

294

1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 4. Do you have membership of a political Party? 1) No 2). Yes 5. Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 6. Vote should be given to that political party which can eliminate poverty, ignorance and terrorism and energy crisis. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 7. In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis? 1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of these 8. Are you happy from the present provincial government performance? 1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 9. Have you gone through the manifesto of the party, which you have been supporting? 1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 10. In 2002 General elections which party you voted? 1). MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12). Independent Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any Other…………….. 11. In 2008 General elections which party you voted? 1) MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12).

295

Independent Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any Other…………….. 12. In 2013 general elections which party you voted? 1). MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12). Independent Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any Other…………….. 13. Are you satisfied from your decision to vote in 2013 elections? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 14. Why did you vote to that political party in 2013 general elections? 1). This political party supporting my ideology 2). That party worked a lot for our area 3). It will bring Islamic system 4). That political party gave jobs to our family 5). That party fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns 6). That party want to change the system 15. Why did you cast vote in favour of that candidate in 2013 general elections? 1). Candidate belonged to our family 2). He is a religious person 3). He is not a secular person 4). He is not a corrupt person 5). All the people of our constituency were voting him 6). He belongs to our party 7). Don‟t Know 9). Any other reason……. 16. Vote should be given to that political party which protecting the rights of our nation. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 17. If the political party which you have affiliation boycott the elections then which party you will vote? 1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of these 13). Independent Candidate 18. There should be bi-party system in Pakistan. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 296

19. Did candidates visited to your home during election campaign for canvassing? 1). No 2). No 3). Don‟t know 20. If election will be held tomorrow, which party will you vote? 1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i- Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Independent candidate 12). Any other……. 13). None of these 21. When you decide about your vote in elections? 1). One month before election 2). One week before 3). One day before 4).On election day 5). Don‟t know 22. Besides elections campaign meetings of party do you participate in other meetings? 1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know 23. Are you participating in party meetings during election campaigns? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 24. If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then? 1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know 25. There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 26. We should change political party according to the circumstances? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 27. All political parties are corrupt. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 28. If your party during elections makes alliance with a party which is against your ideology then you will give vote to your party? 1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 29. We need to vote that political party which can eliminate the problems of our locality. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 297

30. Did the candidate speech inspire you to vote? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 31. Did you vote to that political party because it is uncorrupt? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 32. Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 33. Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kin? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 34. Vote should be given to that candidate who has economic and political influence in the area. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 35. Vote should be given to that candidate who did a lot for our constituency? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 36. Who should be the next prime minister of Pakistan in 2018 general elections? 1). Imran Khan 2). Nawaz Sharif 4). Bilawal Zardari Bhuto 5). Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao 6). Asfandyar Wali Khan 7). Maulana Fazl Ur Rehman, 8). Siraj Ul Haq 9). Altaf Husain 10). Pervez Musharraf 11). Don‟t Know 12). Any other……………. 37. Vote should be given on the basis of religiosity? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 38. Did voters cast their vote in elections in your locality? 1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know 39. If not! Why? 1). Polling satiations are distant 2). Combined polling stations of Male and female 3). Polling staff supporting a particular political party 4). Candidates are doing nothing for the area 5). There is rigging 6). Casting vote is un-Islamic 7). Because there is fighting in polling stations 8). There is no drinking water and washroom in polling stations 9). Don‟t know 10). Any other reason…………… 40. Male and female have equal right to vote. 298

1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 41. Female should cast their vote independently. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 42. Which kind of issues and problems faced female voters to cast their vote? 1). Polling stations are distant 2). Male interference in female polling stations 3). No proper arrangement of covering (Pardah) 4). Male and female combined polling stations 5). No proper arrangement of drinking water and washroom 6). Ulema’s verdicts (Fatwa) against women vote avoid them to vote 7). Polling staff was not cooperating 8). Political parties signed an agreement to forbid women to poll their vote 43. Vote should be given to that candidate who joins our joy and sorrow? 1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 44. What is the quality of the candidate which you voted in 2013 general elections? 1). Uncorrupt and honest person 2). He did a lot for our area 3). Sincere leader 4). Religious cleric/Alim 5). Participating in the joy and sorrow of the people 6). He is a candidate of our party 7). Any other………. 45. Are you satisfied from the elections results? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 46. Vote should be sell on election day. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 47. Did people sell their votes in your locality? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 48. In your opinion what are the most prominent problems of your locality? (you can tick more than one answer) 1). Unemployment 2). Load shedding 3). Poverty 4). Terrorism 5).corruption 6). Injustice 7). Poor condition of roads 8). Insecurity 9). Illiteracy 10). Any other……………………………… 49. How much you satisfied from the performance of the candidate of your constituency to eliminate the above mentioned problems. 299

1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 50. Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your head of family support. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 51. Terrorism affected our local politics. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 52. Who influence your vote‟s decision? 1). head of the family 2). Friends 3). Relatives 4). Party 5). Candidate 6). No one 7). Don‟t know 53. In 2002 general elections people voted to Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) because USA attacked on Afghanistan? 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 54. In your opinion which political party candidate should win the 2018 general elections from your constituency? 1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamaat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i- Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). Independent candidate 13). Don‟t know 55. Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections day. 1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 56. Vote should be given to an independent candidate rather than party candidate. 1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent 57. Which party do you belong to? 1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of these

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