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Strategic Intelligence

Presenters: Presenter:Michael Blackburn Dennis Cantalupo Economic Outlook 2016 Michael Blackburn

February 4, 2016 U.S. Economy in 2015 2016 Outlook • The Good: - After weak Q1, down 2.1%, GDP growth strengthened mid- year and then was weaker than expected in Q4, up 2.6% - Unemployment fell to 5%, well below heights of 10% in 2009, 2.7 million jobs added in 2015 - Consumer sentiment holding strong - Housing stable - prices up 5.8% through Nov (Case Shiller) - Inflation under control: lower fuel & commodity prices - Bankruptcy activity remains modest, although activity has increased - Equity markets volatile coming into 2016, driven by strong dollar and lower oil prices

• The Bad: - Wage growth since recession has been slow; job growth in low wage positions - Underemployment rate at 10%, and labor participation rate remains only 63%, a 40-year low; 25-54 age group rate is 80.8%, or about 2% below pre-recession levels - Income disparity still an issue - High public and private debt - Corporate capital spending improving but still restrained - Lower fuel prices hurt energy sector, lower capex - Fed initiated rate hike in December, at least two more increases were expected in 2016, but Fed recently more dovish

• China soft landing & transition, growth nearing a 20 year low • U.S. is a bright spot in the Global economy, but high dollar and sluggish global economies could hurt trade. • Risks: EU break up; cyber attacks; China economy falls; middle east; Russia; climate change; oil rebound; US presidency

Economic Indicators – GDP 2016 Outlook

Average GDP growth since 1950s is 3.2%, compared to 1.5% since 2006, or 2.2% since 2010

Q4 Contributions to GDP Growth Consumer spending grew 2.2%, down from 3% in Q3 Contributions from residential fixed investment and federal spending were partially offset by negative contributions from private inventory investments, state spending, exports and nonresidential fixed investments.

Source: Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal

3 Economic Indicators – Income & Consumption 2016 Outlook

Real median income fell from about $57,400 in 2007 to about $54,000 in 2014

A good measure of consumer/economic strength is disposable Real disposable income (DPI) up 2.4% income, defined as after-tax income in 2014, after a 0.2% decrease in 2013; Real disposable personal income rose 3.2% in Q4 after 3.8% Real personal consumption increase in Q3; Personal savings rate increased to 5.4% from expenditures (PCE) increased 2.5%, 5.2% in Q3 compared to a 2.4% increase For 2015, DPI grew 3.5% and PCE grew 3.1%, compared to 2.7% for both in 2014. Dec consumer spending was essentially flat as the savings rate grew, despite low fuel prices and inflation

4 Economic Indicators – Too Much Debt? 2016 Outlook

Total federal debt rose to $18.150 trillion, or just over 100% of GDP; debt held by public reached $13.120 trillion, including $2.800 trillion held by the Fed

Low rates, below GDP growth, have helped contain debt growth.

As of 9/30/15, consumer debt was at $12.07 trillion, up 3% yoy, still about 5% below peak $12.680 trillion in 2008. Most non-housing debt has been stable in the last three years, except student loans, which have increased 10% to $1.2 trillion, with delinquency rates over 10%. Auto loans also grew in 2015

5 Economic Indicators – Inflation & Pricing 2016 Outlook

Inflation pressure remains weak. IMF Commodity Index fell 30.7% in 2015 with energy dropping 39.3%; non-fuel prices fell 19.1%, partly reflecting US$ appreciation

6 Economic Indicators – Financial Markets 2016Outlook

Treasury Yield Curve • Fed began to raise rates in December, first increase since 2006. At least 2 increases expected in 2016, with target rate expected to increase to between 0.75% to 1.00% • Prime rate currently 3.5% could hit 4% by year-end • 10-year rate held at just over 2% most of 2015 •Yield curve remains normal, though steepened in 2015 - inflation risk remains low in 2016 but overall credit risks are increasing

DJIA

DJIA closed 2015 at 17,425, down 2.2%; 52 week range: 15,370-18,351, similar to 2014

7 Federal Reserve – 2016 Projections 2016 Outlook

GDP growth remains soft; another slow Q1?

Fed expects growth of around 2% through 2018, and stable unemployment in 5% range

2.7 million jobs added in 2015, but not enough to boost GDP growth. Number of Americans with jobs or seeking employment remained near a 40-year low of 62.5%; 81% among workers aged 25-54. Adjusted for part-time and marginally attached workers, the rate was 9.9% in Dec, down from about 17% in 2010.

Inflation, as measured by PCE Index, should increase and stay in 2% range. The price index fell 0.2% in Dec and was up 0.7% in 2014.

U.S. economy still vulnerable to external shocks.

8 Economic Indicators – Housing 2016 Outlook

Home price growth appears to be stabilizing at about 5%, S&P/Case Shiller 20 city index was up 5.8% in Nov year-over-year. Existing home sales rose 15% in December, and reached 5.26 million for the year, the highest level since 2006. However, with prices and interest rates rising, sales growth is expected to slow in 2016 to 1% to 3% (National Assoc of Realtors). Home prices have climbed 29% from their bottom in Jan 2012, but are still nearly 5% below their record level from July 2006. Housing starts fell 2.5% in Dec, with declines in all markets except the Northeast

9 Geographic Trends 2016 Outlook

Dec 2015 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Foreclosure trends continue to improve. • The median sales price of a non-distressed home was $181,000 in Nov 2015 (up 25% yoy). The median sales price of a foreclosure home was $114,240, or 37% lower than non-distressed home sales. Foreclosure filings fell 10% yoy in December. (RealtyTrac) • National unemployment rate fell to 5% in Dec 2015, from 5.6% at the end of 2014 and peak of 9.9% in Oct 2009 • Highest unemployment - New Mexico (6.8%), D.C. (6.6%), W. Virginia (6.5%), NV (6.5%); Lowest unemployment – ND (2.7%), NE (2.9%), SD (3%), HI (3.2%), NH (3.2%),

10 Commercial Real Estate Trends 2016 Outlook

• Store closings continue – JCP, , , Radioshack, Bi-Lo/Winn-Dixie, Macy’s, , Alco, Target Canada, the Gap, Hancock, office suppliers. • New store growth limited; capex trimmed and focused on remodels, technology, online and customer experience; M&A has created consolidation. •Vacancy rate for regional malls decreased slightly o 7.8% in Q4 2015 from 7.9% in Q3 and 8% Q4 2014. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011. The strip mall vacancy rate decreased to 10% in Q4, from 10.1% in Q3 and 10.2% in Q4 2014. (Reis). •Reis noted construction remains at weak levels, and there has not been much change in rental rates over the past five quarters (up around 2% year over year) . • Strip mall rent growth accelerated slightly versus last quarter but the quarterly growth rates are so weak that any difference is marginal and insignificant. Certain markets such as , NY, Phoenix and Miami seeing strength. •Creditntell Retail REIT Roundup : 95.2% occupancy, 3.2% increase in average base rent

11 Retail Backdrop 2016 Outlook • Consumption comprises about two thirds of GDP – retail is critical component of economy • Consumer sentiment, averaged around 93 in 2015, stronger on improved employment and lower fuel trends, but wage growth still weak • NRF – Holiday sales grew 3% to $626.1 billion, down from 4.1% in 2014; retailers used deep discounts to drive traffic; non- store holiday sales grew 9% to $105 billion • Risks: rising interest rates and health care costs; minimum wage hikes; data breach; stronger dollar

Source: NRF

12 Sales Trends 2016 Outlook

• Retail sales fell 0.1% in Dec from Nov 2015, and rose just 2.1% for 2015 (0.9% excluding auto). U.S. Commerce Dept. • 2015 - General merchandise rose 0.8%, electronics and dept stores fell 2.4%; and 2% Foodservices up 8.1% and food stores up 2.5%; Nonstore retail up 6.3%. • Consumer sentiment rose to 92.6 in Dec and 93.3 for Jan – jobs and fuel – but will it translate to higher sales? • Moody’s expects core retail sales, excluding auto and gas sales, to grow about 5% in 2016. • Trends: Rise of internet and off-price retail

13 Retail Operating Trends 2016 Outlook

Source: S&P Retail/Restaurant Revenue & EBITDA Growth

14 Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing 2016 Outlook

Most Recent Previous Count Most Recent Previous Count Food & Convenience Period Year Pct Change Change Food & Convenience Period Year Pct Change Change Shake Shack 41 26 57.7% 15 SUPERVALU Inc. 1,536 1,528 0.5% 8 K-VA-T Food Stores, Inc. 133 106 25.5% 27 Metro Inc. 857 856 0.1% 1 Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 573 463 23.8% 110 Tesco PLC 3434 3433 0.0% 1 Alimentation Couche-Tard, Inc. 8,915 7,423 20.1% 1,492 Bashas' Inc. 120 120 0.0% 0 Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. 103 87 18.4% 16 Bozzuto's, Inc 5 5 0.0% 0 Noodles & Company 424 370 14.6% 54 Central Grocers, Inc. 37 37 0.0% 0 , Inc. 216 191 13.1% 25 Fairway Group Holdings Corp. 15 15 0.0% 0 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 1,931 1,724 12.0% 207 Marc Glassman, Inc. 61 61 0.0% 0 , Inc. 241 218 10.6% 23 Limited 2440 2440 0.0% 0 Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. 76 69 10.1% 7 SpartanNash Company 165 165 0.0% 0 , Inc. 180 164 9.8% 16 URM Stores, Inc. 22 22 0.0% 0 Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 394 361 9.1% 33 BJ's Restaurants, Inc. 168 154 9.1% 14 Village Super Market, Inc. 29 29 0.0% 0 , LLC (a/k/a BI-LO and Winn-Dixie) 756 697 8.5% 59 Woodman's Food Market, Inc. 15 15 0.0% 0 Brio Restaurant Group 116 107 8.4% 9 Redner's Markets, Inc. 59 59 0.0% 0 , Inc. 431 399 8.0% 32 Foods, Inc. 61 61 0.0% 0 Smart & Final Stores, LLC 270 252 7.1% 18 Wakefern Food Corp. 90 90 0.0% 0 DeMoulas (dba Market Basket) 75 71 5.6% 4 Alex Lee, Inc. 100 100 0.0% 0 Restaurant Brands International Inc. 19,514 18,550 5.2% 964 Hy-Vee, Inc. 259 259 0.0% 0 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. 428 409 4.6% 19 The Co. 2,620 2,631 -0.4% -11 The North West Company Inc. 237 227 4.4% 10 Markets, Inc. 201 202 -0.5% -1 The Cheesecake Factory Inc. 194 186 4.3% 8 Ahold 762 767 -0.7% -5 Stores, Inc. 112 108 3.7% 4 Brookshire Grocery Company 151 152 -0.7% -1 Companies, Inc. 2,267 2,196 3.2% 71 , Inc. 163 165 -1.2% -2 YUM! Brands, Inc. 41,924 40,618 3.2% 1,306 Marsh , Inc. 77 78 -1.3% -1 Panera Bread Company 931 903 3.1% 28 Schnuck Markets, Inc. 99 101 -2.0% -2 Sobeys Inc. 1,852 1,801 2.8% 51 LRI Holdings, Inc. 230 235 -2.1% -5 Casey's General Stores, Inc. 1,904 1,856 2.6% 48 Associated Food Stores, Inc. 42 43 -2.3% -1 Northgate Gonzalez Market Inc. 40 39 2.6% 1 Grocery Company, Inc. 42 43 -2.3% -1 Food Markets, Inc. 85 83 2.4% 2 Bob Evans Farms, Inc. 548 562 -2.5% -14 Super Markets, Inc. 1,106 1,080 2.4% 26 Ruby Tuesday, Inc. 663 683 -2.9% -20 Biglari Holdings Inc. 625 612 2.1% 13 Cumberland Farms, Inc. 550 570 -3.5% -20 Organizacion Soriana, S.A. de C.V. 678 664 2.1% 14 213 221 -3.6% -8 Tops Holding II Corporation 161 158 1.9% 3 Rouse's Enterprises, LLC 43 45 -4.4% -2 McDonald's Corporation 36,405 35,864 1.5% 541 Raley's, Inc. 122 128 -4.7% -6 , Inc. 427 423 0.9% 4 Darden Restaurants, Inc. 1,534 1,520 0.9% 14 Bloomin Brands, Inc. 1,280 1,349 -5.1% -69 Jack In The Box Inc. 2,910 2,888 0.8% 22 1,291 1,363 -5.3% -72 Denny's Corporation 1,700 1,689 0.7% 11 The Wendy's Company, Inc. 852 995 -14.4% -143 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 637 633 0.6% 4 Super Markets, Inc. 13 17 -23.5% -4 Brinker International, Inc. 1,632 1,622 0.6% 10 Holding, Inc. 110 149 -26.2% -39 Stater Bros. Holdings, Inc. 169 168 0.6% 1 Ignite Restaurant Group 154 326 -52.8% -172

15 Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing 2016 Outlook

Most Recent Previous Count Most Recent Previous Count Department Stores Period Year Pct Change Change Electronics & Office Period Year Pct Change Change Hudson's Bay Company 466 328 42.1% 138 Conn's, Inc. 101 89 13.5% 12 , Inc. 323 293 10.2% 30 hhgregg, Inc. 227 228 -0.4% -1 Macy's, Inc. 900 840 7.1% 60 Best Buy Co., Inc. 1,047 1,052 -0.5% -5 Ross Stores, Inc. 1,448 1,366 6.0% 82 Aaron's, Inc. 2,064 2,101 -1.8% -37 Burlington Stores, Inc. 566 539 5.0% 27 Staples, Inc. 1,919 2,024 -5.2% -105 Gordmans Stores, Inc. 102 98 4.1% 4 Fry's Electronics, Inc. 32 34 -5.9% -2 Von Maur Inc. 30 29 3.4% 1 Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores, Inc. 1,172 1,257 -6.8% -85 , Inc. 86 84 2.4% 2 Interbond Corporation of America 9 10 -10.0% -1 , Inc. 274 268 2.2% 6 Office Depot, Inc. 1,769 1,996 -11.4% -227 Kohl's Corporation 1,166 1,163 0.3% 3 Boscov's, Inc. 43 43 0.0% 0 BCE, Inc. (Operates The Source Retail Chain 700 700 0.0% 0 Most Recent Previous Count Dillard's, Inc. 297 298 -0.3% -1 Retail Drug Period Year Pct Change Change Corporation, Limited 1,690 1,696 -0.4% -6 CVS Health Corporation 8,067 7,910 2.0% 157 Stage Stores, Inc. 847 855 -0.9% -8 The Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. 416 416 0.0% 0 Belk, Inc. 296 299 -1.0% -3 Corporation 4,560 4,572 -0.3% -12 Beall's, Inc. 490 495 -1.0% -5 Boots Alliance, Inc. 8,192 8,333 -1.7% -141 The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. 270 273 -1.1% -3 J.C. Penney Company, Inc. 1,021 1,062 -3.9% -41 Inc. 429 477 -10.1% -48

16 Who’s Opening, Who’s Closing 2016 Outlook

Most Recent Previous Count Most Recent Previous Count Apparel & Footwear Period Year Pct Change Change Housewares Period Year Pct Change Change Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. 201 158 27.2% 43 Container Store Group, Inc. 77 69 11.6% 8 Lululemon Athletica Inc. 354 289 22.5% 65 Kirkland's, Inc. 351 328 7.0% 23 Francesca's Holdings Corporation 619 538 15.1% 81 Williams-Sonoma, Inc. 612 589 3.9% 23 Carter's, Inc. 809 720 12.4% 89 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 1,520 1,506 0.9% 14 H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB 3,675 3,341 10.0% 334 Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc. 67 68 -1.5% -1 DSW, Inc. 449 410 9.5% 39 Pier 1 Imports, Inc. 1,053 1,073 -1.9% -20 J. Crew Goup, Inc. 536 495 8.3% 41 Rent-A-Center, Inc. 2,697 2,841 -5.1% -144 Tuesday Morning Corporation 757 801 -5.5% -44 Zumiez, Inc. 640 592 8.1% 48 Kitchen Collection, Inc. 224 239 -6.3% -15 Tilly's, Inc. 216 203 6.4% 13 Urban Outfitters, Inc. 556 525 5.9% 31 Genesco Inc. 2,800 2,674 4.7% 126 Most Recent Previous Count The Gap, Inc. 3,751 3,594 4.4% 157 Mass Merchandisers Period Year Pct Change Change Shoe Carnival, Inc. 400 390 2.6% 10 Dollar Tree, Inc. 14,038 5,282 165.8% 8,756 Express, Inc. 654 638 2.5% 16 Five Below, Inc. 434 365 18.9% 69 The Cato Corporation 1,370 1,343 2.0% 27 Group Holdings L.P. 1,005 928 8.3% 77 Carrefour SA 10,860 10,105 7.5% 755 The Buckle, Inc. 464 456 1.8% 8 99 Cents Only Stores 389 362 7.5% 27 Citi Trends, Inc. 520 512 1.6% 8 The TJX Companies, Inc. 3,594 3,385 6.2% 209 L Brands, Inc. 3,003 2,971 1.1% 32 Dollar General Corporation 12,396 11,715 5.8% 681 Brown Shoe Company, Inc 1,207 1,205 0.2% 2 PriceSmart, Inc. 38 36 5.6% 2 Ascena Retail Group Inc. 3,895 3,896 0.0% -1 , Inc. 213 204 4.4% 9 The Men's Wearhouse, Inc. 1,748 1,760 -0.7% -12 Wholesale Corporation 697 671 3.9% 26 Chico's FAS, Inc. 1,546 1,557 -0.7% -11 Walmart Stores, Inc. 11,554 11,156 3.6% 398 Foot Locker, Inc. 3,419 3,460 -1.2% -41 Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica 3,004 2,904 3.4% 100 The Finish Line, Inc. 696 705 -1.3% -9 Bi-Mart Corporation 75 74 1.4% 1 Pacific Sunwear of , Inc. 611 620 -1.5% -9 Big Lots, Inc. 1,463 1,496 -2.2% -33 New York & Company, Inc. 504 512 -1.6% -8 Variety Wholesalers, Inc. 355 366 -3.0% -11 Destination XL Group, Inc. 354 361 -1.9% -7 Fred's, Inc. 639 682 -6.3% -43 American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. 1,068 1,092 -2.2% -24 1,805 1,934 -6.7% -129 Christopher & Banks Corporation 540 554 -2.5% -14 Corporation 1,687 1,831 -7.9% -144 Children's Place Retail Stores, Inc. 1,085 1,117 -2.9% -32 Army and Air Force Exchange Service 2,440 3,100 -21.3% -660 bebe stores, inc. 201 207 -2.9% -6

Gymboree 1,315 1,355 -3.0% -40 Most Recent Previous Count Le Chateau Inc. 218 225 -3.1% -7 Home Improvement / Building Materials Period Year Pct Change Change Abercrombie & Fitch Co. 965 1,000 -3.5% -35 Tractor Supply Company 1,465 1,361 7.6% 104 Destination Maternity Corp. 554 575 -3.7% -21 RONA Inc. 514 500 2.8% 14 Claire's Stores, Inc. 2,926 3,038 -3.7% -112 The Sherwin-Williams Company 4,048 3,941 2.7% 107 Danier Leather Inc. 86 90 -4.4% -4 84 Lumber Company 252 249 1.2% 3 Lowe's Companies, Inc. 1,846 1,837 0.5% 9 Lands' End, Inc. 246 261 -5.7% -15 , Inc. 2,270 2,264 0.3% 6 Reitmans (Canada) Limited 775 843 -8.1% -68 Fastenal Company 2,647 2,647 0.0% 0 Aeropostale, Inc. 824 1,052 -21.7% -228 True Value Company 4,472 4,494 -0.5% -22 17 Bankruptcies & High Yield Debt 2016 Outlook

• Bankruptcy filings have been pared, thanks to strong securities markets, low interest rates, and slightly improving economy that have allowed more companies to refinance and push out debt maturities. •According to Bankruptcydata.com, 2015 saw nearly 14% fewer corporate bankruptcies (29,839) than in 2014, a year which had the fewest since at least 1980, and the sixth consecutive year bankruptcies have declined. However, public company bankruptcies did increase to 79 from 54 in 2014, due to a jump in oil & gas, mining and related sectors. California, Texas, New York and were again the states with largest percentage of bankruptcies in 2015 (40%). bankruptcies rose in the fourth quarter, to represent 3.6% of all bankruptcies due to the fiscal problems in the territory; Puerto Rico is attempting to get legislation passed to allow it to restructure its debt. The Services industry had the largest share of bankruptcies again in 2015, representing 34.7% of filings, while Retail Trade represented 11.3%, led by Eating and Drinking places, with 10% of all filings. • , Inc., Fresh & Easy, A&P, Wet Seal, Radioshack, Cache, City Sports, Quicksilver, Team Express, Anna’s Linens, Simply Fashion Stores, Fredericks of Hollywood and American Apparel filed in 2015. 2016 started off with Joyce Leslie. & Hancock Fabric. Sports Authority possibly next. • High yield market saw a pullback of about 5% in 2015 (first loss since 2008) amid concerns over the energy sector, large outflows and uncertain global growth. Spreads widened with yields surpassing 8%, compared to around 7% at the end of 2014. The trailing 12-month (Nov) default rate of 2.8% is about half the long-term historical average; defaults are expected to increase in 2016, particularly among energy issues – Moody’s predicts over 3%, . • Defaults could increase following surge in high yield issuances during 2008 credit crisis, due to rising rates and refinancing risk.

18 Credit Ratings – D or Lower 2016 Outlook

Current Current Company Name Credit Rating Company Name Credit Rating Le Chateau Inc. F2 Emery-Waterhouse Company (The) D2 LRI Holdings, Inc. F2 EVINE Live Inc. D2 99 Cents Only Stores F1 Harbor Wholesale Grocery Inc. D2 Body Central Corp. F1 Huttig Building Products, Inc. D2 Danier Leather Inc. F1 Interline Brands, Inc. D2 Fairway Group Holdings Corp. F1 J.C. Penney Company, Inc. D2 Book Company, Inc. F1 Neiman Marcus, Inc. D2 Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. F1 Taiga Building Products Ltd. D2 Sears Holdings Corporation F1 Unified Grocers, Inc. D2 The Sports Authority, Inc. F1 United Hardware Distributing Co. D2 Associated Materials, Inc. E2 84 Lumber Company D1 BlueLinx Holdings Inc. E2 Albertsons Companies D1 The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. E2 At Home Corporation D1 E2 Bloomin Brands, Inc. D1 Hastings Entertainment, Inc. E2 CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd. D1 School Specialty Inc. E2 Chef's Warehouse, Inc. D1 Sears Canada Inc. E2 Destination Maternity Corp. D1 SED International Holdings, Inc. E2 hhgregg, Inc. D1 Tops Holding II Corporation E2 Lands' End, Inc. D1 Aeropostale, Inc. E1 Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. D1 Builders FirstSource, Inc. E1 Modell's Sporting Goods D1 Claire's Stores, Inc. E1 Pro-Build Holdings, Inc. D1 Colabor Group E1 Rite Aid Corporation D1 Gander Mountain Company E1 Sportsman's Warehouse, Inc. D1 Gordmans Stores, Inc. E1 SUPERVALU Inc. D1 HD Supply, Inc. E1 Trans World Entertainment Corporation D1 Ignite Restaurant Group E1 J. Crew Goup, Inc. E1 Kitchen Collection, Inc. E1 Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores, Inc. E1 Southern States Cooperative, Inc. E1 Systemax Inc. E1 Toys R Us, Inc. E1 US Foods, Inc. E1

19 Strategic Intelligence

Presenters:

Thank You! Michael Blackburn Dennis Cantalupo Senior Vice President COO 800 – 789 – 0123 x 131 800-789-0123 x110 [email protected] [email protected]

Lawrence Sarf Steve Dove Kevin Slack CEO President, F&D Reports President, Creditntell.com (800) 789 – 0123 x102 (800) 789 – 0123 x121 (800) 789 – 0123 x103 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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