Jun Ray To what extent was (Yuan Shih-k’ai) responsible for the rise of warlordism in China in the early twentieth century?

Point Evidence Analysis Yuan betrayed the 1913: GMD had won landslide election ⇒ Consequence: republic through his ● 269 out of 596 seats of National Assembly 1. Uprooted Chinese democracy in its infant stages persecution of the 2. Inchoate GMD not given chance to flourish and carry out mandate of GMD that destroyed Yuan’s persecution of the GMD people democracy in its ● March 1913: Killed leader Song Jiaoren Nipped it in the bud before it had the opportunity to flourish ​ infant stages ● Banned 438 GMD members from parliament ● November 1913: Banned GMD from parliament Hsu: Responsible for chaos and lawlessness of era ○ Sun Yixian forced to flee Yuan’s role in setting a precedent for other warlords to emulate 1. Cronyism: actively promoted generals to positions of political power Yuan’s destruction of democracy ● , minister of war (4 ministries went to his henchmen) ● Ignored original terms of provisional constitution ○ Would later lead clique, most powerful warlord in ○ Refused to move capital to Nanjing, 1920 leveraged on military support in North ● Provinces along the Yangtze river ● 1913: surrounded parliament with troops to force acceptance of Reorganisation Loan 2. Accelerated rise of warlordism by removing democratic obstacles

● January 1914: dissolved parliament 3. Symbolic icon of successful warlord ● May 1914 Constitutional Compact ● Normalisation of militarised politics - rule by man and not by law ○ Extended rule to lifelong tenure ● , warlord President of China after Yuan ○ Unlimited power over citizens’ rights, ● Long-term: Generalissimo Jiang’s leadership of GMD ​ finances etc ● Jan 1916: declared emperorship Jun Ray Yuan’s weak foreign ● 1913 Reorganisational Loan Consequence: concessions betrayed ○ $100 million from a consortium of foreign 1, Fuelled decentralisation the sovereignty of the banks ● 1913 2nd Revolution by Jiangxi and 6 other provinces Chinese Republic ● Recognition of Outer Mongolian and Tibetan ● National Protection War (Dec 1915 - July 1916) autonomy with Britain and France ○ Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou protested against Yuan’s rule ● 1915 21 Demands ○ Gained traction: Guangdong, Hunan, ○ Japan given railway and mining rights in → long-term issue: Southern provinces further destabilised, ​ ​ Shandong alienated ○ Concessions in Manchuria ○ Political interference in internal affairs 2, Long-term weakness of China through Japanese advisers ● Exacerbated LT weakness - Japan granted foothold in Northern China ● Warlord would perpetuate ⇒ Relied on foreign approval to prop up his tenuous regime 3, Stimulated domestic nationalism!! Spence: Positives of Yuan’s rule such as prison building, ● New Culture Movement born (1915-24) inviting foreign advisers to amend penal system, nationwide 4 year schooling for boys, improving irrigation Critical: Varied by region. Popularity of warlords and crop yield ● Model Governor in Shanxi ● and Wu Peifu - nationalist warlords

Failure of progressives Pre-Yuan Time scope: Initial failure most damning. ​ to create strong opposition against 1 January 1912: Sun Yixian handed provisional presidency to Fenby: Blames the 1911 revolutionaries for failing to design solid plan Yuan’s rule Yuan Critical analysis: Sun Yixian’s role ​ ● Feared outbreak of civil war and Sun had no armed ● Handed New Republic to Yuan in 1912 forces to back his authority ○ Naively placed trust in Yuan without designing sound political ● Believed Yuan had connections to facilitate framework to prevent abuse of power abdication of Qing dynasty ● Perpetuated deeply-ingrained psyche of military power prevailing in politics Sun accepted title of Director of Railways and returned to ○ GMD betrayed their own 3 People’s Principles power base in South China During Yuan ● Progressive Party (by Kang and Liang) encouraged Yuan to crush the 2nd Revolution ● Revolutionary comrades Huang Xing and Chen Jiongming refused to support Sun in armed uprising in 1914 ○ Chinese Revolutionary Party Jun Ray ● 1913 Impeachment by National Assembly failed to remove YSK from power Post-Yuan Power vacuum post-Yuan's death in 1916. Descended into warlordism. Lack of democratic Confucian ethics Deeply-entrenched: Even progressive revolutionaries superficially committed to tradition in China democracy ● Political parties contrary to societal harmony Critical analysis: Yuan was a symptom of the undemocratic culture of Chinese ● Sun reluctant to support Song Jiaoren’s challenge of ​ Yuan, feared being perceived as power-hungry politics ● Late-qing: political tool for Qing to assert unpopular rule Ruling by men and not by law ● Elevated political status rooted in his power as commander of 75,000 ● Sun’s 1914 Chinese Revolutionary Party strong . ○ Members took undemocratic oath of loyalty to Sun → But undoubtedly a proponent and accelerator of this tradition Prioritisation of nationalism over democracy Political consciousness of Chinese populus awakened to guard sovereignty ● 1915 21 Demands ● 1919 ToV - Shandong given to Japan Synthesis: Rise in nationalism structural reason for decentralisation ● Fuelled nationalistic outrage against weak central government = ⇒ Rise of nationalistic warlords like Wu Peifu, Chen decentralisation Jiongming ● Fostered climate for the fragmentation of provinces.

Endemic provincialism Provinces vs central state during Qing Long-term grounding of militarism within politics ● Manifestation of Self-Strengthening era ● Rise of provincial leaders like Yuan 1. Lack of central army = fostered political rise of military leaders like Yuan. ○ Commander of Beiyang fleet Qing used military commanders to enforce decisions through coercion

2. Provincial leaders relied on strong militias and force to enforce power Late Qing reforms a. Hunan and Anhui militias ● 1901 establishment of military academies ○ Tianjin academy: Wu Peifu, Yan Xishan ● 1909 provincial assemblies → Decentralisation allowed for militarised politics to take root ○ Militarists helmed provincial leadership Manifested into warlords rising to power in provinces through strong military 1911 Revolution backgrounds ● 18 provinces ceded from Qing rule = incapacitated democratic governance ● No unification post-revolution - Power-hungry motivations

Jun Ray - Deprioritised centralisation due to regional base

Conclusion: Yuan’s responsibility as President of China during the rise of warlordism cannot be denied, but should not be exaggerated

YES ● Controlled biggest Beiyang army as prominent warlord ● Allowed deputies like Duan Qirui, Feng Guozhang to emulate ● Short-term destruction of democracy betrayed the republic

BUT Accelerator / Trigger and not fundamental cause ● Root cause: systemic decentralisation institutionalised in Chinese politics. ○ Facilitated rise of militarism within the political system.

Yuan was a symptom of the strongman-rule phenomena