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USAID UKRAINE COMPETITIVE ECONOMY PROGRAM Sector Selection Assessment Report

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PHOTO BY SOFTSERVE FOR USAID USAID UKRAINE COMPETITIVE ECONOMY PROGRAM Sector Selection Assessment Report February 15, 2019 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by J.E. Austin Associates, Inc. for Chemonics International. DISCLAIMER: The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Contacts: William (Bill) Seas III Chief of Party [email protected] Evgenia Malikova Contracting Officer’s Representative USAID/Ukraine [email protected] TABLES OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 BACKGROUND 11 METHODOLOGY 11 CONCLUSIONS 12 RECOMMENDATIONS 14 1. OVERVIEW 18 1.1 PROGRAM DESCRIPTION 18 1.2 ASSESSMENT PURPOSE AND CRITERIA 18 2. METHODOLOGY 20 2.1 ASSESSMENT PHASES 20 2.2 DATA COLLECTION 21 2.3 DATA ANALYSIS 23 3. SECTOR SHORTLISTING 25 3.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW AND TRENDS 25 3.2 SHORTLIST SUMMARY 32 4. SECTOR ASSESSMENTS - APPAREL AND FOOTWEAR 37 4.1 SECTOR OVERVIEW 37 4.2 SECTOR GROWTH POTENTIAL 50 4.3 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION 54 4.4 SECTOR JOB CREATION POTENTIAL 58 4.5 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION 59 4.6 BUSINESS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 59 4.7 OTHER FACTORS 61 4.8 SWOT AND DIAMOND ANALYSES 61 5. SECTOR ASSESSMENTS – DAIRY PROCESSING 70 5.1 SECTOR OVERVIEW 70 5.2 SECTOR GROWTH POTENTIAL 83 5.3 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION 90 5.4 SECTOR JOB CREATION POTENTIAL 94 5.5 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION 94 5.6 BUSINESS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 96 5.7 OTHER FACTORS 100 5.8 SWOT AND DIAMOND ANALYSES 102 6. SECTOR ASSESSMENTS – FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PROCESSING106 6.1 SECTOR OVERVIEW 106 6.2 SECTOR GROWTH POTENTIAL 118 6.3 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION 124 6.4 SECTOR JOB CREATION POTENTIAL 127 6.5 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION 128 6.6 BUSINESS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 129 6.7 OTHER FACTORS 132 USAID UKRAINE CEP SECTOR SELECTION 2 6.8 SWOT AND DIAMOND ANALYSES 133 7. SECTOR ASSESSMENTS – IT: DIGITAL PRODUCTS AND SERVICES137 7.1 SECTOR OVERVIEW 137 7.2 SECTOR GROWTH POTENTIAL 147 7.3 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION 153 7.4 SECTOR JOB CREATION POTENTIAL 156 7.5 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION 157 7.6 BUSINESS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 163 7.7 OTHER FACTORS 168 7.8 SWOT AND DIAMOND ANALYSES 170 8. SECTOR ASSESSMENTS – WOOD PRODUCTS AND FURNITURE MANUFACTURE 176 8.1 SECTOR OVERVIEW 176 8.2 SECTOR GROWTH POTENTIAL 194 8.3 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR EXPORT MARKET PENETRATION 206 8.4 SECTOR JOB CREATION POTENTIAL 210 8.5 SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION 211 8.6 BUSINESS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 214 8.7 OTHER FACTORS 214 8.8 SWOT AND DIAMOND ANALYSES 216 9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 224 9.1 CONCLUSIONS 224 9.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 239 ANNEX 1: SCOPE OF WORK 244 ANNEX 2: SECTOR SELECTION SCORING MATRIX 248 ANNEX 3: SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES 249 ANNEX 4: KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEW CONTACTS 254 ANNEX 5: INTERVIEW GUIDE – AGENCIES AND ASSOCIATIONS 259 ANNEX 6: INTERVIEW GUIDE – COMPANIES 262 ANNEX 7: SURVEY GUIDE 270 ANNEX 8: PHASE 1 SECTOR ASSESSMENTS 274 USAID UKRAINE CEP SECTOR SELECTION 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Comparative Sector Selection Scoring by Criteria ................................................................ 12 Table 2: Interviews by Location and Stakeholder Group ..................................................................... 22 Table 3: Shortlist Summary .......................................................................................................................... 32 Table 4: Key Ukrainian Woven Fabric Producers .................................................................................. 37 Table 5: Shares in Total EU Imports of the Largest Importing Countries in the EU in 2016 ...... 50 Table 6: EU Countries with the Highest Growth Rate of Import ...................................................... 50 Table 7: Production Volume of Dairy Products (`000 of MT) ............................................................ 78 Table 8: Export Volume of Dairy Products in Ukraine (`000 of MT) ................................................ 80 Table 9: Assessment of Dairy-Processing Sector Scalability ................................................................ 86 Table 10: 2018 Livestock Sector-Related Budget Areas of State Support Program .................... 101 Table 11: Fruit and Vegetable Processing Sector Domestic Sales (‘000 MT) ................................ 112 Table 12: Fruit and Vegetable Processing Sector Export Sales (‘000 MT) ...................................... 114 Table 13: Assessment of Fruit and Vegetable Processing Sector Scalability .................................. 120 Table 14: Main Suppliers of Processed Fruit and Vegetables on the EU Market .......................... 126 Table 15: Assessment of IT Sector Scalability ....................................................................................... 149 Table 16: Key IT Service Providers on Global Markets ...................................................................... 155 Table 17: Comparison of Some Global IT-Outsourcing Destinations ............................................ 156 Table 18: Selected Ukrainian Successful Product Companies ........................................................... 160 Table 19: IT Courses and Schools in Ukraine ....................................................................................... 166 Table 20: Wood Processing and Furniture Manufacturing Firms by Size in 2017......................... 176 Table 21: Wood Processing Firms by Size (Trend, 2010-2017) ....................................................... 177 Table 22: Furniture Manufacturing Firms by Size (Trend, 2010-2017) ............................................ 177 Table 23: Examples of Manufacturers and Their Distribution Channels......................................... 183 Table 24: Potential Export Markets ......................................................................................................... 195 Table 25: Sector Scalability ........................................................................................................................ 197 Table 26: Sector Competitiveness Factors ............................................................................................ 209 Table 27: Comparative Sector Selection Scoring by Criteria ............................................................ 225 Table 28: Apparel and Footwear Scoring Matrix ................................................................................. 225 Table 29: Dairy Processing Scoring Matrix ............................................................................................ 228 Table 30: Fruit and Vegetable Processing Scoring Matrix .................................................................. 230 Table 31: IT: Digital Products and Services Scoring Matrix ............................................................... 232 Table 32: Wood products and Furniture Scoring Matrix ................................................................... 235 Table 33: Sector Selection Scoring Matrix ............................................................................................. 248 Table 34: Key Informant Interview Contacts ........................................................................................ 254 Table 35: Key Indicators for Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils Sector ........................................ 274 Table 36: Reasons to Shortlist Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils Sector ..................................... 276 Table 37: Key Indicators for IT Sector ................................................................................................... 277 Table 38: Reasons to Shortlist IT ............................................................................................................. 279 Table 39: Key Indicators for Wood Processing and Furniture Sectors .......................................... 280 Table 40: Reasons to Shortlist the Wood and Furniture Sector ...................................................... 282 Table 41: Key Indicators for Apparel and Footwear Sector .............................................................. 283 Table 42: Reasons to Shortlist Apparel and Footwear Sector .......................................................... 285 Table 43: Key Indicators for Dairy Sector ............................................................................................. 286 Table 44: Reasons to Shortlist Dairy Sector ......................................................................................... 288 USAID UKRAINE CEP SECTOR SELECTION 4 Table 45: Key Indicators for Beekeeping and Honey Sector ............................................................. 289 Table 46: Reasons to Shortlist Beekeeping and Honey Sector ......................................................... 291 Table 47: Key Indicators for Light Manufacturing Sector ................................................................... 292 Table 48: Reasons to Shortlist Light Manufacturing Sector ............................................................... 294 Table 49: Key Indicators for Meat Sector .............................................................................................
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