IMES DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero Ryo KATO and Shin-Ichi NISHIYAMA Discussion Paper No. 2003-E-11 INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES BANK OF JAPAN C.P.O BOX 203 TOKYO 100-8630 JAPAN You can download this and other papers at the IMES Web site: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp Do not reprint or reproduce without permission. NOTE: IMES Discussion Paper Series is circulated in order to stimulate discussion and comments. Views expressed in Discussion Paper Series are those of authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan or the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. IMES Discussion Paper Series 2003-E-11 October 2003 Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero Ryo KATO* and Shin-Ichi NISHIYAMA** Abstract This paper characterizes the optimal monetary policy reaction function in the presence of a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We analytically prove and numerically show that the function is highly nonlinear, more expansionary, and more aggressive than the Taylor rule. We then test its empirical validity taking the case of Japan in the 1990s. Qualitatively, we find some evidence of nonlinear monetary policy. Quantitatively, we find the actual monetary policy to be too contractionary during the first half of the decade, while the low interest policy during the latter half turns out to be fairly consistent with the simulated path. Key words: Deflation, Liquidity trap, Pre-emptive monetary policy, Zero bound JEL classification: E52, E58, C63 * Global Economic Research Division, International Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
[email protected]) ** Research Division 1, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
[email protected]) This paper is a revised version of our earlier draft circulated as OSU Working Paper No.01- 12.