DOCSLIB.ORG

War Economy: Secrecy Around South Sudan's Dwindling Central Bank Reserves

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
War Economy: Secrecy Around South Sudan's Dwindling Central Bank Reserves War Economy: Secrecy around South Sudan's dwindling central bank reserves JUBA (28 Mar.) This report is part of an exclusive series, 'War Economy', which focuses on the economic situation in South Sudan. Share 125 South Sudanese government officials have refused to disclose the level of foreign exchange reserves held by the Central Bank Tweet amid shortage of hard currency in the markets. Foreign exchanges reserves are assets held by a central bank, often in the form of United States dollars, which the central bank can exchange for domestic currency with commercial banks and forex bureaus. In South Sudan the fixed rate of exchange for the US dollar has remained the same while the black market rate dropped to a record low this month. Many businesses, commercial banks or forex bureaus have been facing an acute shortage of dollars. In an interview earlier this week, a senior central bank official refused to comment on the level of foreign reserves, though questioned twice on the matter. Another official, an executive at the finance ministry, likewise declined to answer the question, while denying that the reserves were exhausted. “There are reserves to support provision of basic needs and services. The central bank has been allocating money to commercial banks and forex bureaus operating in the country,” he said. However, three more junior sources in several different institutions who claimed to have working knowledge of the matter all put the figure at less than $150 million. Sources variously estimated the Central Bank's foreign assets reserves at $110 million, $140 million and $120 million, equivalent to about a week or so of imports. None of these figures are official. All of these estimates are less than a projection made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last December. The IMF projected that the net foreign assets of the central bank would drop to the equivalent of two weeks of imports in 2015. 'Critically low' The South Sudanese central bank's foreign currency reserves late last year were disclosed in a report published by the IMF, an international organization headquartered in Washington, DC. Data on the reserve levels since then is not publicly available. The IMF Representative in Juba reported on 15 December, “At end-November 2014, the net foreign assets of the central bank amounted to US$340 million (less than 3-weeks of imports), compared to US$379 million at end-September.” This means that the central bank's foreign reserves dropped 10% over a two month period from end-September to end-November. Without data available, it is not possible to say whether the reserves continued to decline at the same precipitous rate since then. At the time, the IMF's office in Juba already called this level of foreign exchange reserves “critically low.” It recommended that South Sudan's central bank build up a reserve at least eight times that level. “In light of South Sudan’s vulnerabilities, it is estimated that a target for foreign reserves of 6-8 months of imports could be appropriate,” the IMF stated. The Fund called the reserves shortage one of several “critical vulnerabilities” threatening the economic stability of the country. “The foreign exchange market is distorted, reserves buffers are critically low, [and] the fiscal deficit is growing,” IMF staff reported. Stopping the bleeding In a press note endorsing the findings of this report, the IMF Executive Board in Washington was even more blunt, saying that the official exchange rate of the South Sudanese pound to the US dollar is not “realistic” and should be adjusted to help restore “depleted reserve buffers” The IMF Executives recommended, “Exchange rate unification would significantly reduce the fiscal imbalance [and] remove incentives for corruption... An adjustment in the exchange rate peg to a realistic level would also help stem foreign reserve losses.” Ignoring this advice, the Central Bank has maintained the fixed exchange rate at the same level while the black market rate has risen sharply. Meanwhile, a source speaking on condition of anonymity told Radio Tamazuj that the government is likely to continue to face cash flow problems in the near future owing to reduced revenues and high spending. He predicted it is a matter of weeks before no money will be available and he said that the government is approaching technical bankruptcy. Another official said that he feared the possible consequences should the government fail to secure a $500 million loan that it has been seeking from the Qatari national bank. File photo: A fire at the Heglig oil field in Sudan in 2012 Read more from the series 'War Economy': South Sudan's Lakes police paid 2 months late (27 March) Bread price rises in South Sudan state capital (27 March) South Sudan fiscal report delayed after Q1 overspend (27 March) South Sudan denies printing more money (27 March).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Currency Wars, Recession Policies and the Overvalued Euro Are to Be Blamed for the Modern Greek Tragedy
    International Journal in Economics and Business Administration Volume IV, Issue 1, 2016 pp. 3 - 19 Currency Wars, Recession Policies and the Overvalued Euro are to be Blamed for the Modern Greek Tragedy Theodore Katsanevas* Abstract: In this paper we argue that, Modern Greek Tragedy is mainly due to the overvalued euro in combination with the strict austerity policies imposed by Berlin. Greece also pays the price of the currency war between the dollar and the euro. The latter puts a heavy burden upon the country’s economic competitiveness as a costume that does not fit the Greek economy, which is mainly based on tourism that requires a labour-intensive production process. The deadlocks of strict monetary and income’s policies, accelerates the upcoming economic thunderstorm, the spiral of recession, the increase in unemployment, the brutal reduction of wages and pensions, the further fall of GDP and the increase of the debt. The always renewed fatal economic forecasts, simply postpone the explosion of the deadlock. Basic economics in theory and in practice are being depreciated. One wonders if there are economists, neoliberals, not to mention, Keynesians and/or radicals that, may support the possibility of an economic recovery under deep recession policies and the existence of a hard currency such as the euro. Trapped under the Berlin’s political prison and the euro zone fetish, Greece continues to follow its tragic road on the grounds that there is no alternative. Yet, in democracies there are no dead ends. If an economic policy is proven to be wrong and catastrophic, the best alternative is to change it.
    [Show full text]
  • Robert Carbaugh and David Hedrick, Will the Dollar Be Dethroned As the Main Reserve Currency?
    Global Economy Journal Volume 9, Issue 3 2009 Article 1 Will the Dollar be Dethroned as the Main Reserve Currency? Robert J. Carbaugh∗ David W. Hedricky ∗Central Washington University, [email protected] yCentral Washington University, [email protected] Copyright c 2009 Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved. Will the Dollar be Dethroned as the Main Reserve Currency? Robert J. Carbaugh and David W. Hedrick Abstract The U.S. dollar was in the line of fire as leaders from the largest developed and developing countries participated in the G8 meeting in July, 2009. China and other emerging market heavy- weights such as Russia and Brazil are pushing for debate on an eventual shift away from the dollar to a new global reserve currency. These countries are particularly concerned about the heavy debt burden of the United States and fear inflation will further debase the dollar which has lost 33 percent in value against other major currencies since 2002. Will the dollar continue as the main reserve currency of the world? What are the other currencies to watch as challengers to the throne? This paper addresses these questions. KEYWORDS: international policy, open economy macroeconomics Carbaugh and Hedrick: Dollar as a Reserve Currency Since the 1940s, the U.S. dollar has served as the main reserve currency of the world. Dollars are used throughout the world as a medium of exchange and unit of account, and many nations store wealth in dollar-denominated assets such as Treasury securities. The dollar’s attractiveness has been supported by a strong and sophisticated U.S. economy and its safe-haven status for international investors.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Exchange Intervention in Asian Countries: What Determine the Odds of Success During the Credit Crisis? Mei-Ching Chang National Chengchi University
    University of Wollongong Research Online Faculty of Business - Papers Faculty of Business 2017 Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis? Mei-Ching Chang National Chengchi University Sandy Suardi University of Wollongong, [email protected] Yuanchen Chang National Chengchi University Publication Details Chang, M., Suardi, S. & Chang, Y. (2017). Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis?. International Review of Economics and Finance, 51 370-390. Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis? Abstract This paper investigates the factors that increase the odds of intervention success by Asian central banks in the foreign exchange market from January 2005 to November 2013. The er sults show that leaning-against-the- wind intervention strategies are effective in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand, particularly to counter the pressure of appreciating domestic currency by purchasing US dollar. We find that coordinated and first day interventions are associated with higher odds of effective intervention. There is also evidence that central banks intervene to calm disorderly market. Disciplines Business Publication Details Chang, M., Suardi,
    [Show full text]
  • The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange Rate
    FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.LOUIS that would have hinted at problems for Thailand The Mechanics of a prior to July 1997. The next section discusses alternative exchange Successful Exchange rate regimes to put the unilateral peg in context. The third section presents an empirical model of mone- Rate Peg: Lessons for tary policy to describe the mechanics with which Austria pegged its exchange rate. The fourth section Emerging Markets applies the same model to describe Thailand’s monetary policy and the contrast with Austria. Michael J. Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE xchange rate pegs collapsed in many coun- REGIMES tries in the 1990s, leading to dreary assess- As a prelude to an analysis of the mechanics Ements of the merits of pegged exchange rate of a unilateral exchange rate peg, it is useful to regimes. Whether one points to the failure of describe the spectrum of alternative exchange rate Mexico’s peg in December 1994 or to the sharp regimes. In addition to unilateral exchange rate devaluations in East Asia in 1997-98, in Russia in pegs, there are five other exchange rate regimes: a August 1998, and in Brazil in January 1999, the floating rate (including managed floats), multilateral collapse of unilateral exchange rate pegs often exchange rate pegs, currency boards, dollarization, preceded acute financial and macroeconomic and currency union. We describe here where the crises. Despite recent failures, however, exchange unilateral peg lies along the spectrum. Since the rate pegs remain a prevalent policy choice. Calvo end of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange and Reinhart (2000) argue that the exchange rate rates in 1973, floating exchange rates have displayed volatility that accompanies a floating exchange rate a very high degree of variability without a corre- regime is particularly onerous to emerging markets, sponding increase in the variability of exchange rate and thus can be a worse policy choice than a peg fundamentals (Flood and Rose, 1999).
    [Show full text]
  • Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements
    2 0 3 Ma³gorzata Jakubiak Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements W a r s a w , 2 0 0 0 Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors’ point of view and not necessarily those of CASE. This paper was prepared for the research project "Ukraine Macroeconomic Policy Program" financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2000 Graphic Design: Agnieszka Natalia Bury DTP: CeDeWu – Centrum Doradztwa i Wydawnictw “Multi-Press” sp. z o.o. ISSN 1506-1701, ISBN 83-7178-208-X Publisher: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research ul. Sienkiewicza 12, 00-944 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (4822) 622 66 27, 828 61 33, fax (4822) 828 60 69 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Abstract 5 1. Definition 6 2. How are Currency Boards Related to Other Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes? 6 3. Experience from Existing Currency Boards 8 3.1. Design of Existing Currency Board 8 3.2. Implementation Experience and Long-Term Effects 11 4. Advantages and Disadvantages of the Currency Board Arrangement 17 5.What Conditions Must Be Satisfied in Order to Be Able to Implement a Currency Board Regime? 20 References 22 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 203 – Ma³gorzata Jakubiak Ma³gorzata Jakubiak Junior Researcher, CASE Foundation The author holds an MA in International Economics from the University of Sussex and an MA in Economics from the University of Warsaw. Since 1997 junior researcher at the Center for Social and Economic Research – CASE.
    [Show full text]
  • Economic and Political Effects on Currency Clustering Dynamics
    Quantitative Finance,2019 Vol. 19, No. 5, 705–716, https: //doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1532101 ©2018iStockphotoLP Economic and political effects on currency clustering dynamics M. KREMER †‡§*††, A. P. BECKER §¶††,I.VODENSKA¶, H. E. STANLEY§ and R. SCHÄFER‡ ∥ †Chair for Energy Trading and Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45141 Essen, Germany ‡Faculty of Physics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Lotharstraße 1, 47048 Duisburg, Germany §Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, 590 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA ¶Department of Administrative Sciences, Metropolitan College, Boston University, 1010 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA Research and Prototyping, Arago GmbH, Eschersheimer Landstraße 526-532, 60433 Frankfurt am Main, Germany ∥ (Received 20 December 2017; accepted 7 September 2018; published online 13 December 2018) The symbolic performance of a currency describes its position in the FX markets independent of a base currency and allows the study of central bank policy and the assessment of economic and political developments 1. Introduction currency to another currency, using their assets in the mar- ket to accomplish a fixed exchange rate. If a central bank does Similar to other financial markets, exchange rates between not intervene, its currency is considered free-floating, mean- different currencies are determined by the laws of supply ing that the exchange rate is mostly determined by market and demand in the forex market. Additionally, market partic- forces. Some central banks allow their currency to float freely ipants (financial institutions, traders, and investors) consider within a certain range, in a so-called managed float regime. macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and inflation The value of any given currency is expressed with respect to assess the value of a currency.
    [Show full text]
  • Historical Precedents for Internationalization of The
    Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and International Institutions and Global Governance Program Historical Precedents for Internationalization of the RMB Jeffrey Frankel November 2011 This publication has been made possible by the generous support of the Robina Foundation. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, busi- ness executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major in- ternational issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy is- sues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affilia- tion with the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Eswar S. Prasad February 4, 2016
    CHINA’S EFFORTS TO EXPAND THE INTERNATIONAL USE OF THE RENMINBI Eswar S. Prasad February 4, 2016 Report prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission CHINA’S EFFORTS TO EXPAND THE INTERNATIONAL USE OF THE RENMINBI Eswar Prasad1 February 4, 2016 Disclaimer: This research report was prepared at the request of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission to support its deliberations. Posting of the report to the Commission's website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-398 and Public Law 108-7. However, it does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission or any individual Commissioner of the views or conclusions expressed in this commissioned research report. Disclaimer: The Brookings Institution is a private non-profit organization. Its mission is to conduct high- quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. 1 Cornell University, Brookings Institution, and NBER. The author is grateful to members and staff of the Commission for their thoughtful and constructive comments on an earlier draft of this report. Audrey Breitwieser, Karim Foda, and Tao Wang provided excellent research assistance. William Barnett and Christina Golubski provided editorial assistance.
    [Show full text]
  • Currency Proxy Hedging: Beyond Correlations
    Currency proxy hedging: Beyond correlations Russell Investments Research / Viewpoint Raheel Mahmood, Senior Portfolio Manager, Currency Investors hedging currency exposures have many decisions to make, from establishing hedge ratios and strategic benchmarks to setting counterparty concentration thresholds. The composition of an investor’s currency exposure may also warrant the use of proxy hedging, where one foreign currency is substituted for another currency of the same notional amount in an overlay program. This augmentation of a currency hedge may benefit the investor by reducing the number of trades and improving costs by avoiding relatively illiquid currencies while maintaining a low tracking error relative to the currency hedge benchmark. However, the cyclicality of the economy can also decouple otherwise stable correlations, motivating investors to take a holistic approach that goes beyond correlations. The use of currency proxies exposures. As at the end of December 2020, there were fourteen currencies in the index. To hedge the full basket of currencies, a U.S. investor would take a short position in each There are various reasons why proxy hedging may be useful of the fourteen currencies vs. USD in the proportions for an investor. Employing proxies can reduce trading costs by represented in the index. not only executing fewer trades but also substituting illiquid currencies with more liquid currencies. Smart proxy selection Studying the index, we can identify currencies that may be can embed fractional carry skews into the portfolio as another suitable proxy targets (see Figure 1). For example, since the cost-saving initiative. Furthermore, certain jurisdictions Danish Krone (DKK) is currently pegged to the Euro (EUR) introduced regulatory changes since 2017, enforcing and commands only a 0.78% weighting in the index, we can mandatory collateralization of non-deliverable forwards reasonably substitute the exposure with EUR.
    [Show full text]
  • Marion V Williams: Foreign Exchange Reserves - How Much Is Enough?
    Marion V Williams: Foreign exchange reserves - how much is enough? Text of the Twentieth Adlith Brown Memorial Lecture delivered by Dr Marion V Williams, Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, at the Central Bank of the Bahamas, Nassau, 2 November 2005. * * * Mr. Master of Ceremonies, Governor of the Central Bank of The Bahamas Mrs. Wendy Craigg, former Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, Sir Courtney Blackman, Deputy Governors, Central Bankers, distinguished guests. I would first like to thank the Central Bank of the Bahamas and the Centre for Monetary Studies for a well-organized Monetary Studies Conference and I wish also to extend my appreciation for the many courtesies extended to us. It is indeed an honour to have been invited to deliver this year’s Adlith Brown Memorial Lecture. The list of speakers who have done so before me is indeed distinguished and Adlith herself was a consummate economist who was dedicated to uplifting the level of scholarship on monetary and central banking matters in the Caribbean. I think this series attempts to do just that. I cut my teeth in monetary matters at the Regional Programme for Monetary Studies, the precursor of CCMS, as a rapporteur at the first meeting held in Barbados under Mrs. Pat Robinson who was the Research Director at the Central Bank of Trinidad. That was many years ago. I hope that today, I can add something to the body of knowledge on the subject, more particularly, on considerations surrounding the holding of an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves, as I address the topic “Foreign Exchange Reserves: How much is enough?” I will discuss why countries have varying views on what is adequate, why countries aim to have levels which are more than adequate, and what factors must be considered in arriving at internationally-accepted criteria without having a one-size-fits-all formula, how we can develop such formulae, and whether countries are likely to cease accumulating foreign exchange reserves.
    [Show full text]
  • Exchange Policies for Less Developed Countries in a World of Floating Rates
    ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE No. 119, December 1976 EXCHANGE POLICIES FOR LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN A WORLD OF FLOATING RATES STANLEY W. BLACK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SECTION DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Princeton, New Jersey This is the one hundred and nineteenth number in the series ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, published from time to time by the International Finance Section of the Department of Economics of Princeton University. The author, Stanley W. Black, is Associate Professor of Economics at Vanderbilt University. He has also taught at Princeton University and been at the Council of Economic Advisers and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He has most recently spent a year as Research Associate at the Institute for International Economic Studies of the University of Stockholm. Professor Black has written a number of articles in the areas of macroeconomics and international monetary economics, among them Interna- tional Money Markets and Flexible Exchange Rates, No. 32 in the series Princeton Studies in International Finance. The Section sponsors the essays in this series but takes no further responsibility for the opinions expressed in them. The writers are free to develop their topics as they wish. PETER B. KENEN, Director International Finance Section ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE No. 119, December 1976 EXCHANGE POLICIES FOR LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN A WORLD OF FLOATING RATES STANLEY W. BLACK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SECTION DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Princeton, New Jersey Copyright © 1976, by International Finance Section Department of Economics, Princeton University Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Black, Stanley W Exchange policies for less developed countries in a world of floating rates.
    [Show full text]
  • 9 Things to Know About China's Bond Markets
    Active is: Thinking without limits 9 things to know about allianzgi.com China’s bond markets China’s bond markets have historically been underutilised by many foreign investors, but things are changing. Steady reforms, an increasingly internationalised currency and attractive yields are resulting in increased inflows. Read these nine tips to understand the essentials of investing in China’s fixed-income marketplace. There are three main ways to access China’s bond markets 1 China’s fixed-income marketplace isn’t monolithic, but it is massive. The onshore RMB segment alone is bigger than those in France, Germany and the UK combined (see Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: three different investable markets for Chinese bonds Onshore RMB bond market Offshore RMB bond market Offshore USD bond market (China) Market size: USD 15.5 trillion Market size: USD 17 billion2 Market size: USD 608 billion (China makes (second-largest bond market globally1 up more than 50% of the overall USD bond market in Asia)3 Dominated by “rates” bonds (bonds from Mostly corporate issuers Predominantly corporate issuers governments and policy banks) Denominated and traded in the “onshore” Denominated and traded in the “offshore” Accessed by international investors currency (CNY) currency (CNH); mostly traded in Hong Kong . (Also known as the “dim sum” bond market.) Restricted access previously prevented many Gives non-mainland China investors a way Chinese companies can issue USD and foreign investors from buying and selling to invest in RMB-denominated bonds RMB-denominated bonds;
    [Show full text]