Automotive Disruption Radar #7

Challenges abound Ongoing crises call for a proactive approach

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AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION RADAR #7

April 2020 2 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

materialize in time. At the same time, most generations of Nvidia chips. Other companies are A call to action traditional industry players are instinctively trying also introducing innovations, such as artificial to defend their home turf – a strategy that may intelligence (AI) chips with significantly lower prevent them from building the new competencies energy consumption, specifically designed to handle The top specs: that are so urgently required for their future new neural network computation. Israeli startup HAILO mobility landscape like autonomous driving. recently raised USD 60 million in its B-round Report summary financing, while Chinese startup Horizon Robotics Business models based on autonomous vehicles are has begun production of China's first automotive- With major governments pushing ahead with now being tested on a large scale, especially in the grade processor. These chips, which may be much plans to turn climate-neutral and the possibility United States. Retail giant Walmart, for example, cheaper then normal GPUs or even CPUs, will of further trade wars, not only between the United has entered several partnerships and carried out redefine the role of intelligent sensors in vehicles. States and China, but also between the United repeated testing of vehicles. In December 2019 the States and Europe, sales volumes in the firm announced further cooperation with Nuro, an Things are progressing on a larger scale, too. automotive industry were already very likely to American robotics company known for its work in The automotive technology company Human decline before COVID-19. The current crisis may the area of autonomous delivery vehicles. Walmart Horizons is building smart-city infrastructure in the now become a catalyst of this development, or has also licensed its vehicle technology to self- Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park in Shanghai as part of its even a game changer for the complete automotive driving truck startup Ike and is allowing the startup Vehicle-Road-City Integrated Smart City project. industry. Widescale shutdowns of assembly Udelv to test autonomous grocery deliveries in Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-tech plants, supply chains and sales activities affect Arizona and Gatik AI to trial deliveries from its main roads and autonomous vehicles in future smart the financial situation of the industry warehouse in Bentonville, Arkansas. The trend cities. This initiative is part of the company's larger tremendously. Moreover, it is unclear by when and towards driverless commercial services as a "3 Smart" strategic blueprint: smart vehicle, smart how the market will recover. Our forecasts sustainable business model is not limited to the road, smart city. Clearly, the Chinese way of indicate a plunge of the automotive volumes up to United States, either: French flag carrier Air France automating mobility will differ significantly from 40% and the pace of a recovery is unknown. is currently partnering with Toulouse-Blagnac that of other regions, where renewing infrastructure Airport and Charlatte Autonom to test an will take much more time. In these highly uncertain times, OEMs and suppliers autonomous shuttle for luggage transportation. need to ensure their short term liquidity in order to survive. Whatever the length of the COVID crisis, Technology roadmaps and paths are becoming the Automotive world will look different afterwards. clearer. In ADR 6 we reported on new chip designs Today's high CAPEX demand is not affordable and intelligent algorithms, and work here is anymore and OEMs are struggling to finance their progressing. For example, Nvidia has presented a e-mobility products. Cost-cutting activities are new chip, called Orin, that can handle over 200 therefore expected to proceed at much higher GB/s of data – compared to around 2 GB/s in the speed. But the necessary structural transformations Tesla Autopilot V2.5 computer, which used older 3 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Over the past three years, our respondents have Country scoring in selected ADR editions become increasingly at ease with digital tools and Top three automotive nations remain unchanged, Netherlands rising fast services. This augurs well for the adoption of Overall score evolution through 7 editions (% of max. achievable score) autonomous mobility services. Thus, compared to 2017, the share of respondents who use an app at 60% least once a week to plan a door-to-door trip grew China from 30% to 45%. This increase is strongly driven by people in traditional automotive markets, such as 58% Singapore Germany, the United Kingdom and the United China Netherlands Singapore States, where numbers of users have risen from 56% 10% to 25%. South Korea 54% A question mark remains over whether the main China South Korea Netherlands Sweden Singapore South Korea UK players in the automotive industry, both OEMs and 52% Sweden suppliers, will be able to meet market expectations. Netherlands At the moment their approach appears to be rather Global 50% Germany, Spain passive. They are focusing on their core business, in Global Germany, UK, India France, India so doing missing opportunities for partnerships and Spain USA Sweden running the risk of seeing their share of value 48% France Italy creation dwindle. This contrasts with the approach Global USA Russia, UAE Netherlands UAE Japan of new players, such as electric vehicle (EV) startup 46% Germany, Japan France, UK, USA Italy Canada Rivian, which partners with Amazon, and Canoo, China India Japan which partners with Hyundai. Both companies are 44% Singapore Germany, UK Belgium, Russia Belgium Saudi Arabia rapidly capturing future profit pools. France Global Italy India 42% South Korea

40% USA Belgium

38% Japan

36% ADR 1 ADR 3 ADR 5 ADR 7

Source: Roland Berger 4 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Under the hood: AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION RADAR – ISSUE #7 Detailed report findings GLOBAL SCORE PER INDICATOR (from 0 to 5) This seventh edition of our biannual ADR examines the automotive market in 18 countries, with Canada ADR 1 ADR 7 and Saudi Arabia included for the first time in this issue. The survey considers 26 different indicators Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences for the industry and had a total of 17,232 EV portfolio Autonomous vehicle preferences respondents. The survey took place in January R&D intensity – TY Mobility planning 2020 and therefore does not yet incorporate effects TIVI Autonomous driving AC RY of the current COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless the ST C Automotive products U U Digitalized culture preferences D ST N O findings underline the existing trend which are now (Level 4+) I M E accelerated by the dynamics. The top three R

Test roads – IN EV preferences automotive nations remain unchanged compared to T Autonomous vehicles E R

ADR 6: China and the Netherlands rank equal first, E I S

Vehicle-2-vehicle N T Mobility behavior followed by Singapore. However, as we foresaw in F

communication R

ADR 6, indicators in smaller automotive markets, S T such as the Netherlands, are rising faster than ever, R

Multimodal mobility U EV/PHEV sales especially in the area of mobility planning usage and C T

U sales of EVs and PHEVs. For the overall country R rankings, see page 3. EV/PHEV charging E Customer curiosity infrastructure

CUSTOMER INTEREST Mobile network – Type approval process N ADR 6 found that interest in EVs and autonomous 5G coverage IO T vehicles was holding up, despite the downturn in LA Venture capital investment – U Restrictions for ICEs TE EG the industry. ADR 7 finds that, globally, this interest Artificial intelligence CH R NO LOG has remained at the same high level, with 55% of Venture capital investment – Mobility Y CO legislation people prepared to use a robocab service and 40% 2 Battery cost – EVs Automotive association activities thinking about buying an EV as their next vehicle. Patent activities Autonomous vehicle – Computing power

Source: Roland Berger 5 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Sales growth for EVs and PHEVs is slowing down Customer preference - Evolution through time and region compared to the situation in ADR 6, with 2.1 million No significant change in AV and EV acceptance – Local situations remain largely stable units sold in 2019 and 1.9 million units in 2018 in the 18 countries included in the survey, a growth AUTONOMOUS ELECTRIFIED rate of 8% a year. For comparison, in order to meet CO goals, sales of vehicles with electrified power- "Would you still buy a car again if fully autonomous "Are you considering buying a battery electric vehicle 2 robocabs could be used at lower cost per trip as your next car?" trains need to show double-digit annual growth, (% of those saying "yes") compared to your own car?" despite stagnating global automotive sales. More (% of those saying "no") than 340 models of EVs and PHEVs are now available in the 18 ADR countries, a significant increase France 55 55 Saudi Arabia 75 on the 125 models available in 2016 (ADR 1). Singapore 50 55 India 50 70 South Korea 50 55 China 60 60 REGULATION Sweden 45 55 UAE 50 60 The regulatory framework for autonomous Belgium 45 50 South Korea 55 55 vehicles continues to expand, a tendency already Germany 45 50 Spain 55 55 observed in ADR 6. Russia has drafted a concept Italy 45 50 Italy 35 40 for road safety involving autonomous driving, for Netherlands 60 50 Canada 35 example, to be finalized by September 2021. In Russia 50 50 Singapore 45 35 ADR 6 we reported that South Korea was working Japan 55 45 Sweden 45 35 on its roadmap for the approval of autonomous vehicles; since then, the Ministry of Land, Spain 50 45 France 30 30 Infrastructure and Transport has announced an Canada 40 Netherlands 25 30 unprecedented set of road safety rules for Level 3 UK 45 40 Belgium 35 25 autonomous cars, allowing automakers to USA 35 35 Germany 40 25 manufacture and sell Level 3 cars from July 2020. China 25 30 Russia 25 25 India 35 30 UK 25 25 Testing is also becoming more widespread. Of the UAE 35 30 USA 20 25 18 countries analyzed, 15 have dedicated test areas Saudi Arabia 25 Japan 20 20 for autonomous vehicles (only Saudi Arabia, UAE 45 45 40 40 and India do not). Regulations in some countries go even further, allowing autonomous vehicles on No, July 2017 1 No, Jan 2020 Yes, Jan 2017 Yes, Jan 2020 public streets and in city centers. This is the case in 1 Value for Italy = July 2017, values for Belgium and Sweden = Jan 2018, values for Russia = July 2018, values for UAE and Spain = Jan 2019 Berlin in Germany and Xinhua in China, for example. Source: RB online survey January 2020: 16,808 participants – By country: Belgium 1,014; Canada 1,022; China 1,005; France 1,022; Germany 1,024; India 1,008; Italy 1,013; Japan 1,014; Netherlands 1,008; Russia 1,011; Saudi Arabia 506; Singapore 1,009; South Korea 1,008; Spain 1,014; Sweden 1,025; UAE 504; UK 1,006; USA 1,019 6 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Restrictions on conventional gasoline and diesel EV/PHEV/FCEV share of models in OEM portfolios powertrains in cities are increasing, further driving Growing share of EV offer for most of the countries – Highest shares in Europe and China the adoption of EVs and PHEVs. Of the 245 cities analyzed, 145 cities have no specific restrictions Number of EV models 227 102 79 80 76 73 64 67 71 56 31 40 33 22 14 <10 (down from 191 in January 2017), 89 have minor sold on the market (2019) restrictions (up from 52) and 11 have major restrictions (up from just two). None of the cities EV model growth rate 135% 65% 30% 41% 40% 51% 17% 33% 48% 33% 38% 43% 44% 1,500% 44% ~100% has a total ban yet. Going against the general 2016 vs. 2019 trend, some Chinese cities (Wuhan, Foshan, Ningbo, Tangshan, Hefei) have relaxed or even Global: 25.1 lifted restrictions as pollution has decreased. It will 24.1 be interesting to see whether restrictions will 340 continue to be used as a short-term way to tackle EV models available local emissions or if in the future they will be used 20.7 20.4 +102% 19.6 more as a long-term instrument for steering 2016 vs. 2019 18.4 17.9 consumers towards less polluting vehicles, in other 17.8 17.4 words EVs and PHEVs. 15.7

TECHNOLOGY 12.6 As stated in previous ADRs, venture capital 11.9 11.5 11.3 11.6 11.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are a 10.3 9.9 crucial enabler for autonomous driving. Invested 9.5 9.3 capital in this field grew from USD 5.8 billion in 8.3 7.4 2018 to USD 7.7 billion in 2019, an increase of 6.6 more than 32%, and does not appear to have 4.4 peaked yet. The year 2019 saw massive 3.6 investments in the field, with USD 2.6 billion going 2.6 <2 to self-driving technology platform Argo AI, USD 1 1.0 billion invested in the non-profit AI research 0.4 company Open AI, and a major investment in China Spain Belgium Sweden Italy South Korea Japan Russia AI-focused independent R&D lab Megvi. Germany France Netherlands United United Canada Singapore India, UAE, Kingdom States Saudi Arabia

EV models, share sold in ADR 1 (%, 2016) EV models, share sold in ADR 7 (%, 2019)

Source: ADR analysis, Roland Berger 7 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Investments in mobility were less bullish. USD 9.27 Regulatory evolution for internal combustion Venture capital investment1 : Mobility platforms billion was invested in 2019, a 32% decrease on engines (ICEs) in urban areas and transport technology [USD bn, 2016-2019] 2018 and more than USD 10 billion less than the all- Slow but sure trend of cities developing various Continuous increase in AI investment, while mobility time high of 2017 (USD 21.4 billion). This may be formats of ICE limitations investment are falling back due to the fact that, despite all the hype about new mobility concepts in recent years, few of these 245 191 145 business models have actually generated profits. 9.3 We may now be entering a phase in which investors 7.7 are more cautious and expect concrete returns on their cash-intensive investments in new mobility -32% concepts. +32%

Patents and R&D capacity continue to grow, as in 13.7 5.8 previous ADRs. More than 100,000 employees are now active in the field of mobility or autonomous driving, according to data gathered from LinkedIn. -36% +70% Moreover, the number of patents referring to 89 autonomous driving rose once again in 2019, now representing 4.5% of all the patents we examined (compared to 2.3% in 2017). 3.4 52 21.4 INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRY ACTIVITY In ADR 6 we drew attention to the lack of charging infrastructure worldwide. The situation has since 11 +120% 2 +130% improved: Today, charging infrastructure is one of 0 the fastest-rising indicators examined in our study. Cities Cities without Cities with Cities with Cities with With more than 1.7 charging stations per 100 in scope restriction minor major ban2 full 9.3 1.6 kilometers at the end of 2019, the overall network restriction1 ICE ban is now three times as dense as it was in 2017. The Netherlands leads the way, while China and South ADR 1 (Jan 2017) ADR 7 (Jan 2019) Mobility Artificial intelligence Korea have made massive progress. Germany and 1 Ban on vehicles not meeting the latest emission standards (e.g. green badge) or selective actions (e.g. car-free days) other European countries are also improving. This 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 Clearing the roads of ICEs over a significant timeframe or low chance of being overall trend is expected to continue. able to register an ICE vehicle 1 Analysis on disclosed amounts Source: Desk research, Roland Berger Source: Tracxn, Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar 8 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) equipment also continues Number of employees listed on LinkedIn ('000) Evolution of V2V vehicles' commercialization to spread. With Volvo and Mercedes having Huge increase in "mobility related" jobs Rise in V2V equipped vehicles launched in the expanded into new geographical areas, this market in last three years technology is now available in eight of the 18 countries considered in our study. As yet, Toyota's 50% 50% SITUATION IN 2017 models are only sold in Japan. Volkswagen has launched a Golf with a vehicle-to-everything (V2X) models equipped function on the US market. 3 with V2V functions offered: → Cadillac CTS (now discontinued) Technological progress in the industry continues. → Mercedes-Benz E-Class In December 2019, QIA and Volkswagen AG ADR 7 (Jan 2020) 137 → Toyota models (in Japan only) announced a pioneering autonomous driving and electric transportation initiative aimed at In 3 countries: transforming urban mobility in Qatar. In January USA, Canada, Japan 2020, GM subsidiary Cruise gave a preview of its first driverless car without steering wheel or pedals. It remains to be seen whether OEMs will SITUATION IN 2020 push on to commercialization or focus instead on +111% their current core business. 14.5% models equipped 20 with V2V functions offered: → Mercedes-Benz E-Class, S-Class, A-Class, GLA, GLC ADR 5 (Jan 2019) 65 → VW Golf → Toyota (Prius PHV, Prius, Crown, Alphard, Vellfire) 85.5% → Volvo XC90, S90, S60, V60, V60 Cross Country, V90, V90 Cross Country, XC40, XC60, V40 +59% 15.7%

ADR 1 (Jan 2017) 41 In 8 countries: 84.3% Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Canada, Sweden, USA, Italy, "Autonomous" job related "Mobility" job related France

Source: LinkedIn, Roland Berger 9 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Country ranking and score movements Netherlands Russia South Korea 1 13 4 Sweden 5

UK Canada 6 16 Germany France Japan USA 7 15 11 9 Italy China Spain 12 7 India Belgium 9 1 Top three countries remain unchanged 17 UAE Singapore The race continues between China, the Netherlands and 13 Singapore. Saudi Arabia 3 Score evolution vs. last edition 17

Source: Roland Berger 10 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Spot facts by country (score out of 130)

CHINA #1 (74) SOUTH KOREA #4 (71) SPAIN #7 (65)

→ Sales of EVs are slowing in China, with just 4% growth → South Koreans remain enthusiastic about EVs, with → Spain's EV charging network is small but rapidly in 2019 compared to 80% the previous year. However, 55% of local respondents prepared to buy one, but EV growing, up 64% since January 2019 and 553% since the country has made progress on infrastructure represent only 2.3% of vehicles sold (2.9% on average) January 2017. → China is fostering the development of autonomous → 60% of South Koreans regularly use navigation apps → Customer enthusiasm is also high: 55% of local driving, designating vast areas surrounding major cities and 55% would not buy a car again if they could use respondents would consider buying an EV, compared such as Shanghai and Beijing for testing robocab services to 40% on average across all countries in the study

NETHERLANDS #1 (74) SWEDEN #5 (69) GERMANY #7 (65)

→ The Netherlands are leading in the KPI of share of EV/ → Sweden sells 10% of all EVs worldwide, making it → Interest in autonomous vehicles is high in Germany, PHEV sales second only to the Netherlands. This is despite having with 50% of people prepared to give up owning a car → Unsurprisingly, the Dutch charging network is also the a relatively small charging network, at just 2.9 stations in favor of robocab services. Testing is fairly most developed of all the countries in the study, with per 100 km widespread, including in urban centers more than nine charging locations per 100 kilometers → Interest in autonomous vehicles is high, with 55% of → 5G has been commercialized, while regulations on (compared to an avareage of 1.7) respondents prepared to give up on owning a car if autonomous vehicles are still under discussion they could use robocabs. However, limited testing is currently taking place SINGAPORE #3 (73) FRANCE #9 (64)

→ Singapore is trying to reduce the use of cars by cutting UK #6 (68) → Activity around autonomous vehicles is strong in the amount of space dedicated to them and promoting France, with large testing areas and support from the shared vehicles → Sales of EVs have been growing steadily since 2017, general population. Thus, 55% of local respondents → Interest in EVs is low: Only 30% of respondents would from 1.7% of all vehicles sold to 2.9% in 2019, though would give up owning a car if they could use robocabs consider buying one, they represent just 1.9% of all only 25% say they'd consider buying one as their → The French are less enthusiastic about EVs, however, vehicles sold and only 22 models are available on the next car with only 30% of respondents considering buying one. market → This is supported by a charging network of More effort is also needed in the area of infrastructure above-average size, with 3.65 stations per 100 km 11 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Spot facts by country (score out of 130)

INDIA #9 (64) RUSSIA #13 (61) CANADA #16 (59)

→ India shows growing interest in EVs, with 70% of → Russia is drawing up a concept for road safety → As in the US, individually owned vehicles reign supreme respondents prepared to buy one today compared with involving autonomous vehicles, to be finalized in in Canada. No restrictions on cars exist in cities and 50% in 2017. However, sales and charging September 2021 new mobility formats have had limited impact infrastructure are practically non-existent → Car-sharing now makes up 0.1% of the total fleet, → Unlike in the US, however, EVs have a significant profile → India is yet to start its journey with autonomous compared to just 0.03% one year ago. However, this is in Canada, with 35% of respondents considering buying vehicles. No approval process for V2V is underway and mainly in Moscow, which represents 85% of the one. EVs make up 2.6% of vehicle sales, compared to a 5G remains at the roadmap stage car-sharing market global average of 2.9%

USA #11 (63) UAE #13 (61) BELGIUM #17 (56)

→ Interest in EVs remains low, with just 25% of respondents → UAE has seen a sharp increase in charging infrastructure, → Belgium is progressing slowly in terms of autonomous considering buying one. Sales figures slowed from 80% with now more than eight stations per 100 km vehicles, sales of EVs and infrastructure. However, growth in 2018 to 70% growth in 2019 → Interest in EVs is growing, with 60% of local interest in robocabs is growing → Rural dwellers are more willing to adopt autonomous respondents saying that they'd consider buying an EV → Individually owned vehicles remain the main form of vehicles (35%) than urban dwellers (25%). The country as their next vehicle, compared to 50% a year earlier. mobility, accounting for 60% of trips, compared to remains a frontrunner in terms of the regulation and However, sales are still practically non-existent 0.6% for shared vehicles testing of autonomous vehicles

JAPAN #15 (60) SAUDI ARABIA #17 (57) ITALY #12 (62) → Japan is traditional when it comes to mobility: New → Saudi Arabia displays a mismatch between the level of → Limited progress is taking place in EVs and concepts are unpopular, shared vehicles account for interest in EVs (75% of respondents) and the reality on autonomous vehicles. EV sales volumes are below 1% just 0.8% of the total fleet (half the global average) the ground, where sales of EVs are almost zero, fewer and there is just one charging station per 100 km and ride hailing is non-existent than ten models are available, infrastructure is practically (up 43% since January 2019) → The government is pushing autonomous vehicle non-existent and there are no restrictions on ICEs → Italian cities are tightening restrictions on internal initiatives in the run-up to the 2020 Summer Olympics → Around 75% of people in Saudi Arabia use an app at combustion engines (ICEs) and introducing stricter in Tokyo. Vehicle testing and debates about regulation least once a week; 38% would be prepared to buy a car rules on green zones are high on the political agenda from a non-brand dealership/third party 12 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

What is the Automotive Disruption THE AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION RADAR PROVIDES GUIDANCE Radar? The ADR aims to answer key questions such as: which factors are driving change in automotive ecosystems; The Automotive Disruption Radar is a biannual how do these factors evolve over time; and what can decision makers do to best manage disruption? analysis of market trends related to disruption in the Beyond the survey, information is also drawn from external sources such as leading mobility experts and global automotive industry. Its latest findings are major industry reports. Ultimately, the ADR is a go-to decision-making tool for senior executives in the based on field research and a survey of 17,000+ car mobility sector. Each nation is scored along the 26 indicators. This framework allows us to conduct a fact- users across 18 markets (Belgium, Canada, China, based measurement to try to determine which nation is most likely to introduce autonomous mobility first. France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the Nether- lands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, UAE, UK, USA). ADR’s 26 indicators SEVEN ADR ISSUES WITH FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEYS are grouped into five dimensions: HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SO FAR

→ Customer interest: Do people want Automotive Disruption Radar AUTOMOTIVE AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION DISRUPTION Issue #1 RADAR RADAR #3 #5 Mobility's autonomous vehicles and to what extent? Tracking disruption signals in the automotive industry April 2017 great leap forward AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION A world on the verge of autonomy RADAR AUTOMOTIVE DISRUPTION #2 RADAR 5 #4 Industry 1 AUTOMOTIVE activity DISRUPTION Customer Mobility services move up a gear RADAR interest #6 Time to → Regulation: What are the regulatory 4 Infra- think smart structure 2 Regulation 3 Uncertainties Technology China signal a need for conditions? March 2018 speeds ahead March 2019 new approaches Asia ahead to mobility Have major Western European markets already lost the race for future mobility?

September 2018 September 2019 → Technology: How far advanced is the technology September 2017 for autonomous driving?

ADR 1 (January 20171) → Infrastructure: How developed is the infrastruc- Tracking disruption signals in the automotive industry ture for autonomous vehicles? ADR 2 (July 20171) Asia ahead. Have major Western European markets already lost the race for ADR 7 future mobility? → Industry activities: Which solutions have March 20201 ADR 3 (January 20181) been announced or already exist? Mobility services move up a gear Challenges abound ADR 4 (July 20181) Ongoing crises call for China speeds ahead a proactive approach ADR 5 (January 20191) Mobility's great leap forward. A world on the verge of autonomy

ADR 6 (July 20191) Time to think smart. Uncertainties signal a need for new approaches to mobility

1 Date of data collection 13 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

List of all indicators and measures

Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences Shared vehicles in car parc [%] % of people who know at least one person who does not use their own car for mobility EV portfolio Autonomous vehicle preferences EV models currently on offer [% of total models] % of people who would use a fully autonomous robocab if it cost less than owning a vehicle R&D intensity – Autonomous driving Mobility planning No. of FTEs listed on LinkedIn ['000 employees] % of people who use an app at least once a week to plan a trip Automotive products (Level 4+) Digitalized culture preferences Level 4 city vehicles [% of total car parc] 5 % of people interested in buying a vehicle directly on the internet Test roads – Autonomous vehicles Industry EV preferences Test tracks in operation [#; km] activity % of people who are considering buying an EV as their next vehicle 1 Vehicle-2-vehicle communication Mobility behavior Models with V2V functions [% of total models on the market] Customer % of overall distance traveled by car interest 4 Multimodal mobility EV/PHEV sales Usage of multimodal mobility Infra- % of total vehicle sales structure EV/PHEV charging infrastructure Customer curiosity Number of charging stations per km of road People's web search behavior 2 Mobile network – 5G coverage Type approval process Steps taken towards 5G installation 3 Regulation Current level of regulation Technology Venture capital investment – Artificial intelligence Restrictions for ICEs Total in USD bn Restrictions on ICE vehicles in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants

Venture capital investment – Mobility CO2 legislation Total in USD bn CO2 emissions target in g/km Battery cost – EVs Automotive association activities Expected development of battery cost [USD/kWh] Positive actions/press releases [% of total number of actions/releases] Patent activities Autonomous vehicle – Computing power Automotive patents filed related to autonomous technology [% of total] Current level of computing power

Indicators Measures

Source: Roland Berger 14 Automotive Disruption Radar – Issue #7

Authors

Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Stefan Riederle PUBLISHER Senior Partner Principal +49 711 3275-7421 +49 89 9230-8169 ROLAND BERGER GMBH [email protected] [email protected] Sederanger 1 80538 Munich Germany +49 89 9230-0 FOR MORE INSIGHTS INTO OUR ADR FIGURES AND ANALYSIS www.rolandberger.com PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT US!

About us

Roland Berger, founded in 1967, is the only leading global consultancy of German heritage and Automotive Disruption MADE by RB European origin. With 2,400 employees working from 35 countries, we have successful operations We believe that the combination of 4 dimensions in all major international markets. Our 52 offices are located in the key global business hubs. (Mobility, Autonomous driving, Digitalization and The consultancy is an independent partnership owned exclusively by 250 Partners. Electrification) is likely to trigger a major disruption in the automotive industry over the next 15 years. Since 2016, we have been bringing together our experts from all around the world to try to make this new future and its implications more concrete, and to best support the key decision makers of the automotive industry.

This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any information provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication.