A&A 482, 699–729 (2008) Astronomy DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361:20078997 & c ESO 2008 Astrophysics Double-blind test program for astrometric planet detection with Gaia S. Casertano1,M.G.Lattanzi2,A.Sozzetti2,3, A. Spagna2, S. Jancart4, R. Morbidelli2, R. Pannunzio2, D. Pourbaix4, and D. Queloz5 1 Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA 2 INAF – Osservatorio Astronomico di Torino, via Osservatorio 20, 10025 Pino Torinese, Italy e-mail:
[email protected] 3 Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA 4 Institut d’Astronomie et d’Astrophysique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, CP 226, Boulevard du Triomphe, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium 5 Observatoire de Genève, 51 Ch. de Maillettes, 1290 Sauveny, Switzerland Received 5 November 2007 / Accepted 1 February 2008 ABSTRACT Aims. The scope of this paper is twofold. First, it describes the simulation scenarios and the results of a large-scale, double-blind test campaign carried out to estimate the potential of Gaia for detecting and measuring planetary systems. The identified capabilities are then put in context by highlighting the unique contribution that the Gaia exoplanet discoveries will be able to bring to the science of extrasolar planets in the next decade. Methods. We use detailed simulations of the Gaia observations of synthetic planetary systems and develop and utilize independent software codes in double-blind mode to analyze the data, including statistical tools for planet detection and different algorithms for single and multiple Keplerian orbit fitting that use no a priori knowledge of the true orbital parameters of the systems.