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US Policy in Asia C O R P O R A T I O N U.S. Policy in Asia— Perspectives for the Future Proceedings from a RAND Corporation Conference in Early 2017 Rafiq Dossani, Scott W. Harold For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/CF372 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This document summarizes the proceedings and findings of a conference on U.S. policy in Asia titled Pivot to Asia? U.S. Policy in Asia Under the Trump Administration, which was held at the RAND Corporation in January 2017. The conference’s objectives were to examine the arenas of U.S.–Asia engagement, develop an understanding of the outcomes of past interaction, and make the case for the terms of future engagement. The conference covered climate change, trade and investment, national security, human rights, and macroeconomic issues. The conference papers included in this document represent the views of their respective authors and were not subject to RAND’s research and quality assurance processes. This conference was made possible, in part, by funding from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, Los Angeles. It was organized by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy. RAND Ventures RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often-controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy This work was conducted within the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP). CAPP is part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation. CAPP provides analysis on political, social, economic, and technological developments in and around the Asia Pacific. Through research and analysis, CAPP helps public and private decisionmakers solve problems, tackle challenges, and identify ways to make society safer, smarter, and more prosperous. For more information on the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, see www.rand.org/international_programs/capp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ...................................................................................................................................... vi Tables ....................................................................................................................................... vii Summary ................................................................................................................................. viii Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... xxvii Chapter One. The Outlook for U.S. Engagement on Climate Change in Asia .............................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 U.S. Climate Policy and Engagement in Asia in the Obama Era .......................................................... 1 Continuing Bilateral Engagement in Asia: Priorities for the New U.S. Administration ......................... 9 The Outlook for Climate Policy in Asia ............................................................................................. 11 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 15 Chapter One References .................................................................................................................... 16 Chapter Two. Climate Change: How Asian Countries Are Responding to the Problem and How They View U.S. Climate Policy ........................................................................... 20 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Japan ................................................................................................................................................ 21 Republic of Korea ............................................................................................................................. 24 Indonesia .......................................................................................................................................... 26 India ................................................................................................................................................. 27 Asian Views on the United States in the Climate Change Debate: Past, Present, and Under the New Administration .............................................................................................................. 29 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 34 Chapter Two References ................................................................................................................... 35 Chapter Three. The U.S.-Asia Economic Relationship: Policy Implications of Recent Trends in Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Patenting ................................................. 38 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 38 Introduction and Overview ................................................................................................................ 38 Asia in the Global Economy .............................................................................................................. 42 The U.S.-Asia Economic Relationship .............................................................................................. 50 Trade Policy: Cooperation and Friction between Asia and the United States ...................................... 56 Concluding Remarks ......................................................................................................................... 63 Chapter Three References ................................................................................................................. 64 Chapter Four. The Future of U.S. Northeast Asia Policy Under Trump ..................................... 67 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 67 The Obama Legacy ........................................................................................................................... 67 Trump’s Foreign Policy Worldview .................................................................................................. 69 Trump’s Northeast Asia Policy.......................................................................................................... 71 iv Uncertainties ..................................................................................................................................... 79 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 80 Chapter Four References ................................................................................................................... 80 Chapter Five. Southeast Asia Policy Under the Trump Administration ..................................... 84 The Trump Team’s Policy Statements ............................................................................................... 85 Demands from Southeast Asia........................................................................................................... 91 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................
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