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The Pennsylvania State University Schreyer Honors College THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING Assessing the Cost Implications of Brexit Upon the U.K. Pharmaceutical Industry ANN PUTHUMANA FALL 2020 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a baccalaureate degree in Accounting with honors in Accounting Reviewed and approved* by the following: Jed Neilson Assistant Professor of Accounting Thesis Supervisor Orie Barron Professor of Accounting Honors Adviser * Electronic approvals are on file. i ABSTRACT This thesis explores the potential financial impact of “Soft Brexit” conditions upon the British pharmaceutical industry, including an analysis of the cost effectiveness of pharmaceutical companies continuing operations within the United Kingdom versus relocating and purchasing new facilities in the European Union. If the Brexit deal is passed, pharmaceutical products could drastically increase in price, citizens of the United Kingdom could face more difficulty obtaining new pharmaceutical products, and current European Union citizens who work within the United Kingdom may lose professional certificate acknowledgement, likely creating a significant impact upon the United Kingdom’s pharmaceutical industry. I explore each of these components, quantifying the potential financial impact within the supply chain and regulation of the pharmaceutical industry, and assessing which option would be more cost effective for U.K. pharmaceutical companies under “Soft Brexit” conditions. After analyzing E.U. regulatory agencies, past trade agreements, immigration laws, the cost of discontinued operations, and capital cost of purchasing manufacturing facilities, the results of this study suggest that the excessive capital costs involved in purchasing new facilities in the European Union would far exceed the potential tariff implications accompanying the continuation of operations in the United Kingdom under “Soft Brexit” conditions. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................... v Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 The European Union .................................................................................................... 1 The United Kingdom ................................................................................................... 4 A “Soft Brexit” ............................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2 Comparative European Union Foreign Policy Relationships .................... 9 Iceland......................................................................................................................... 9 Norway ....................................................................................................................... 10 Canada ........................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 3 How will the pharmaceutical industry be impacted?................................. 12 Regulation ................................................................................................................... 12 Trade ........................................................................................................................... 13 Labor ........................................................................................................................... 16 Relocation ................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 4 Major Players in the United Kingdom Pharmaceutical Industry ............... 18 AstraZeneca ................................................................................................................ 18 GlaxoSmithKline ......................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 5 Literature Review .................................................................................... 22 Chapter 6 Forecasting Assumptions ......................................................................... 24 Regulation ................................................................................................................... 24 Trade ........................................................................................................................... 25 Labor ........................................................................................................................... 31 Relocation ................................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 7 Results ..................................................................................................... 35 Limitations of Study .................................................................................................... 35 “Soft Brexit” Cost Impact on U.K. Pharmaceutical Industry ......................................... 35 Relocation Cost Impact ................................................................................................ 36 iii Chapter 8 Conclusions ............................................................................................. 37 Appendix A AstraZeneca Tariff Cost Impact .......................................................... 38 Appendix B GlaxoSmithKline Tariff Cost Impact ................................................... 39 Appendix C Calculation of Percentage of United Kingdom Operations ................... 40 Appendix D Relocation Cost Impact Calculations ................................................... 41 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 43 ACADEMIC VITA ................................................................................................. 50 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The European Union, 2020 ................................................................................... 3 Figure 2. The United Kingdom ............................................................................................ 5 Figure 3. EU-U.K. Pharmaceutical Trade, 2018 ................................................................... 15 Figure 4. Global AstraZeneca Locations .............................................................................. 19 Figure 5. GlaxoSmithKline Manufacturing and Supply Chain Locations .............................. 21 Figure 6. Calculation of Total Annual U.K. WTO Tariff Figure ........................................... 30 Figure 7. Calculation of Annual GlaxoSmithKline Tariff Cost Impact ................................. 30 Figure 8. Computation of European Operations Percentage ................................................. 32 Figure 9. Computation of U.K. Operations in Europe Percentage ......................................... 32 Figure 10. Computation of Percentage of U.K. Operations ................................................... 32 Figure 11. Components of Discontinued Operations Calculation .......................................... 33 Figure 12. Impairment Loss Calculation .............................................................................. 33 Figure 13. Calculation of U.K. Company Net Income .......................................................... 33 Figure 14. Calculation of Selling Price ................................................................................ 33 Figure 15. Calculation of Gain/Loss on Disposal ................................................................. 34 Figure 16. AstraZeneca Tariff Cost Impact Calculation ....................................................... 38 Figure 17. GlaxoSmithKline Tariff Cost Impact Calculation ................................................ 39 Figure 18. Calculation of Percentage of U.K. Operations ..................................................... 40 Figure 19. Total Selling Price Calculation ........................................................................... 41 Figure 20. 2016 Net U.K. PP&E or Book Value Calculation ................................................ 41 Figure 21. 2016 U.K. Net Income/Loss Calculation ............................................................. 41 Figure 22. Loss on Disposal of Component Calculation ....................................................... 42 Figure 23. Total Relocation Cost Calculation....................................................................... 42 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Trade Agreement Negotiations............................................................................... 26 Table 2. Country Economic Information in Euros (at Year of Trade Agreement) ................. 27 Table 3. Calculation of United Kingdom WTO Tariff .......................................................... 28 Table 4. Calculation of Segment of U.K. Pharmaceutical Industry WTO Tariff .................... 29 Table 5. Calculation of Company Segment of WTO Tariff .................................................. 29 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my Thesis Supervisor, Jed Neilson, for his instruction and feedback throughout this process, as well as my Honors Adviser, Orrie Barron, for
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