Key Themes This Week Major Markets Last Week the Week Ahead Equity Markets Were Broadly Flat Last Week

Monday, 17th June 2019

Key Themes This Week Major Markets Last Week The Week Ahead Equity markets were broadly flat last week. Trade, the Fed and attacks on two oil tankers in the middle east dominated the headlines. Economic data remained mixed with weaker inflation numbers from the US and Europe and Value Change % Move underwhelming industrial production data in both Europe and China. Dow 26090 105.67 0.41%

Our cautious view on risk assets remains at present as numerous headwinds S&P 2887 13.64 0.47% build. Broadly, global economic data continues to deteriorate. Global Nasdaq 7797 54.56 0.70% manufacturing PMI data for May fell to 49.8 (implying contraction) for the first time since 2012. Earnings expectations continue to fall. The first two quarters are both set to see negative earnings growth and projections for the second MSCI UK 16065 -57.08 -0.35% half of the year are looking optimistic. Despite this, valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 12m forward P/E of c.17x. US-Sino trade relations appear DAX 12092 46.18 0.38% to be getting worse as opposed to better. The effect of these tariffs on global ISEQ 6149 -51.83 -0.84% economic data and corporate profits is becoming more evident. The meeting between Trump and Xi, should it go ahead, at the G20 on the 28th of June will be pivotal. Nikkei 21124 -10.42 -0.05%

These headwinds have seen a flight to safe haven assets. The US ten year H.Seng 27256 -323.10 -1.17% yield has dropped to 2.10% and the 10 year German bund yield has fallen to its lowest level on record at –27bps. Gold has gained and is now closing in on STOXX600 379 0.67 0.18% key point of resistance at $1358. It will be a significant signal if it breaks above and holds this level. Brent Oil 61.71 -0.58 -0.93% It is an important week for financial markets with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all deciding on interest rate policy. Crude Oil 52.24 -1.02 -1.92% There is a slew of economic data which will be watched keenly. Gold 1336 7.67 0.58%

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday is shaping up to be the one of the key events this year. The current downward trend in economic data and the escalating trade war has led the market to do a Silver 14.8227 0.12 0.81% complete U-turn on its monetary policy expectations since December. Copper 263.8 -2.40 -0.90% Investors are now pricing in between two and three interest rate cuts this year from the Fed. The probability of an interest rate cut at this week meeting has CRB Index 412.08 2.47 0.60% risen to 25% after the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, said the central bank will respond “as appropriate” to the risk from a global trade war and other developments. However, given the position of equity markets at present and Euro/USD 1.1217 -0.01 -0.84% the signal a cut would provide to the market, we do not expect a cut on Wednesday. Should it fail to cut as we expect, the message from Powell will Euro/GBP 0.8914 0.00 -0.03% be crucial. With the market convincing itself we are at the beginning of easing GBP/USD 1.2584 -0.01 -0.80% cycle, the meeting possesses a risk to both equity and fixed income markets. In our opinion, a cut from the Fed over the summer period will be a Value Change signal that the outlook for the US economy is poorer than we had anticipated. We do not expect any changes from the BoJ or the BoE this week. German 10 Year -0.252 -0.03

On the data front in the US notable publications include, flash Markit PMI’s, UK 10 Year 0.844 0.01 housing starts, home sales and industrial manufacturing data. In Europe, flash US 10 Year 2.1011 -0.05 PMI’s for June, German economic sentiment, construction and trade data will be important. PMI data from Japan on Friday will indicate the direction of global trade. The aforementioned PMI data, particularly manufacturing, Irish 10 Year 0.299 -0.03 will drive sentiment later this week. US manufacturing PMI is expected to come in inline with last month at 50.5. Should it surprise to the downside and Spain 10 Year 0.497 -0.11 come in sub 50, fears will grow of an impending recession. This would be exacerbated by more hawkish than expected Fed on Wednesday. European Italy 10 Year 2.303 -0.06 manufacturing PMI is expected to show another month of contraction with expectations of reading of 47.7. Germany continues to lead this decline as its export heavy economy suffers from trade wars and the economic downtrend. BoE 0.75 0.00

ECB 0.00 0.00 This week we cover off on ICG, Healthcare, IRES and Apple. Fed 2.50 0.00 All data sourced from Bloomberg CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND LT D

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Opportunities this week

CFI Research Team

Irish Continental Group Closing Price: € 4.27 • Irish Continental Group has fallen to €4.27 on Brexit uncertainty. • We advise investors to buy the stock close to the €4.20 level, which offers significant support. • Currently trading at a 12m forward P/E of 15.7x. This represents a 6% discount to its 5 year average. This is despite double digit EPS growth projections for the medium term. • Short term we see c.8 - 10% upside from the current level. These lower levels are also an opportunity for longer term investing. However, Brexit risk must be taken into consideration. • The risk of a no-deal hard Brexit has increased. The direction will be driven by the newly elected Tory head. As a result there will be occasions to lock in profits over the coming months. • Brexit is a significant risk for ICG as its core business is based on transporting goods and passengers across the Irish sea. Regardless, Ferry transport between Ireland, the UK and Key Metrics 2019e 2020e 2021e continental Europe will be required. Revenue (€’Mn) 357.3 370.3 n/a • There are a number of supportive tailwinds going into the key summer period. EPS (€) 0.26 0.30 n/a • The recent 20% drop in oil prices will mean lower input Price/ Earnings 16.33x 14.46x n/a costs, improving profitability. • This is first summer period that the W.B yeats will be Div Yield 3.03% 3.26% n/a operating bringing an increase in capacity on the Dublin to Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI France route. • The Dublin Swift will recommence sailings on the Dublin to Total Return 1 Mth 3 Mth YTD Holyhead route • After a difficult 2018, we expect a significant improvement in ICG -9.40% -10.51% 3.18% earnings and profitability this year. Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI

Healthcare Closing Price: €75.98

• We maintain our preference for a defensive asset allocation at present. • Economic data has shown a consistent deterioration over the past number of months. Last month global manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2012. It is now in contractionary territory (sub 50) at 49.8. • A trade deal between the US and China looks a long way away. The G20 meeting is the next major catalyst. • During these periods Healthcare stocks offer safety through low volatility and good earnings visibility/stability. Sanofi • Recently added to our core fund. It offers a defensive, diversified portfolio of products • Significant cost cutting, increasing penetration to Emerging markets Key Metrics 2019e 2020e 2021e and seven new products launched this year will benefit earnings. Pfizer Revenue (€’Mn) 35902.7 37240.6 38636.9 • Unlike the vast majority of its peers, it is relatively protected EPS (€) 5.77 6.21 6.66 (excluding Lyrica) from generic replacement in the near future • Pipeline is strong. Earnings growth is expected to accelerate Price/ Earnings 13.16x 12.21x 11.39x • The market is not pricing in this growth with the 24m forward P/E of 13.42. A 13% discount to the S&P 500 pharmaceutical sector. Div Yield 4.15% 4.33% 4.55% UnitedHealth Group Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI • The managed care sector has suffered on political risk from the “Medicare for All” proposal. The probability of this passing is Total Return 1 Mth 3 Mth YTD extremely low. • This weakness has provided an opportunity for a longer term holding Sanofi 4.14% -1.83% 0.42% • It is set to continue to grow earnings between 13%-16% annually. Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI

CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND LT D 2

th Weekly Trader Monday, 17 June 2019

Opportunities this week

CFI Research Team

IRES REIT Closing Price: €1.62 • I-RES is Ireland’s largest private landlord with a portfolio of 3,568 units spread mainly across Dublin. They have a target of 5,000 units in the medium term. • Their portfolio of residential units is valued on their balance sheet at c.€330k per unit and rented for €1,600 per unit per month on average. We think both these numbers are a conservative reflection of the market at present and look attractive relative to recent PRS scheme transactions. The average two bed apartment in Sandyford sells for c. €350k and we think this is a fair comparison. • Post the acquisition of the Marathon Asset Management portfolio, consensus will likely to raise their 2019, 2020 and 2021 revenue by 15%, 27% and 30% respectively. Allowing for the increased gearing for the Marathon acquisition, I-RES EPS should increase • In 2018, IRES paid out €24m as a dividend to shareholders relative to €41m in rent roll. Assuming I-RES generates €50m in organic rent in 2020 and an additional €15m rent from Marathon portfolio, I- Key Metrics 2019e 2020e 2021e RES could potentially pay a dividend of €37.7m which is equivalent to 0.0725c per share and a 2020 dividend yield of c.4.5%. I-RES Revenue (€’Mn) 41.1 52.0 65.0 portfolio of tenants report a bad debt ratio of 0.4%. A normalised EPS (€) 0.08 0.11 0.13 market would be 2% which indicates how solid and attractive their portfolio of assets are. This dividend yield and low risk portfolio Price/ Earnings 20 16 14 makes them relatively attractive to cash holdings. • Institutional investors, such as I-RES, are taking advantage of Div Yield 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% Brexit by buying large scale apartment developments at a discount. Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI • We are raising our twelve month forward fair value for I-RES with Total Return 1 Mth 3 Mth YTD this note to €1.76 which would imply 10% upside plus a dividend of c.4.2% and a total return of 14.2%. We expect analysts to revise up I-RES 3.7 5.8% 21% their earnings, dividend and target price over the coming weeks to Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI be a catalyst.

Apple - Reduce Closing Price: $192.74

• Market trends continue to favour more defensive stocks over economically sensitive stocks such as Apple. • Trade negotiations between the US and China, not only weigh on global demand, but recent reports have indicated that Apple’s manufacturing partner has the capacity to move manufacturing out of China. This would be a significant disruption and risk to its global supply lines • Apple has recovered since its May lows, however, we advising using recent strength to reduce exposure • Q3 expectations, results the end of July, are high considering both the difficult macro backdrop and management’s Q3 guidance posts its Q2 results in April. • Apple has had a poor start to FY19 with two quarters of falling revenues. Key Metrics 2019e 2020e 2021e • iPhone sales represent c. 60% of Apple’s revenue and has fallen by 256823. 267667. 283346. 15% in Q1 and 17% in Q2. The larger Products category (including Revenue (€’Mn) 1 9 9 iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Watch) has posted revenue declines of 7% and 9% in Q1 and Q2. EPS (€) 11.46 12.74 14.47 • Service revenue, which is expected to provide the growth engine for Apple is also slowing. Growth slowed from 19% in Q1 to 16% in Q2 Price/ Earnings 16.65x 14.97x 13.18x • The smartphone category remains highly competitive operating with Div Yield 1.56% 1.70% 1.91% a price sensitive consumer. China has proofed a difficult market in Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI Q2 with Revenues falling 21%. • Having fallen to 14x recently, valuations have risen to 15.5x close to Total Return 1 Mth 3 Mth YTD highs and above its 5Y average of 13.6x. • Current consensus price target for Apple is $209, which is 9.5% Apple 4.54% 7.32% 23.08% above current levels. Source: All data & charts from Bloomberg & CFI

CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND LT D 3

Cantor Core Portfolio - In Detail

Cantor Core Portfolio Date: 14/06/2019 Performance YTD % Sectors Weights Portfolio Benchmark + / - FX Portfolio Benchmark

Portfolio 16.2% Consumer Discretionary 6% 9% EUR 52% 37% Benchmark 16.6% Consumer Staples 13% 11% GBP 9% 15% Relative Performance -0.5% Energy 8% 6% USD 39% 40% P/E Ratio 17.90x Financials 8% 17% Other 0% 8% Dividend Yield 2.9% Health Care 15% 14% ESMA Rating 6 Industrials 13% 12% Beta 0.94 Information Technology 13% 11% Currency YTD % Communication Services 7% 7% GBP 0.94% Utilities 4% 4% USD 2.29% Materials 13% 6%

Real Estate 0% 2% Emerging Markets 0% 0%

Benchmark Weighted Average Contribution

Total Return Weekly Index Currency PE Outlook Weighting Price Total Contribution Local Return STOXX Europe 600 EUR 18 Neutral 60% 15.2% 0.4% 379 9.1%

S&P 500 USD 19 Neutral 40% 16.3% 0.5% 2887 7.5%

Total 100% 16.63%

Core Portfolio Weighted Average Contribution

Total Return Weekly Stock Currency Yield* Hold /Sold Sector Weighting Price Total Contribution Local Return Alphabet Inc* USD 0.0% H Communication Services 2% 4.0% 1.7% 1086 0.3% Verizon Communications Inc USD 0.0% H Communication Services 5% 5.8% 1.8% 58.28 0.5% Ryanair Holdings Plc* EUR 0.0% H Consumer Discretionary 4% -1.4% -0.5% 10.60 0.0% Dalata Hotel Group Plc* EUR 2.1% S Consumer Discretionary 0% 11.8% -5.9% 5.23 0.8% Amazon.Com Inc* USD 0.0% H Consumer Discretionary 2% 24.5% 3.6% 1870 1.0% Glanbia Plc* EUR 1.9% H Consumer Staples 4% -10.2% -1.0% 14.61 -0.4% Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc USD 3.4% S Consumer Staples 0% -21.9% 1.2% 52.57 -1.0% Coca Cola Co USD 3.1% H Consumer Staples 4% 10.2% 0.4% 51.31 0.5% Danone EUR 2.8% H Consumer Staples 5% 21.2% 0.4% 72.52 0.4% Royal Dutch Shell Plc GBp 6.0% H Energy 5% 10.7% -0.6% 25.17 0.6% Total Sa EUR 5.6% H Energy 3% 5.0% 0.2% 0.47 -0.1% Lloyds Banking Group Plc* GBp 5.9% S Financials 0% 15.1% 0.2% 0.58 0.8% Allianz Se EUR 4.6% H Financials 4% 23.8% 2.6% 207.40 1.0% AIB Group Plc EUR 5.4% H Financials 4% 1.7% -0.9% 3.58 0.1% Sanofi EUR 4.2% H Health Care 5% 4.6% -3.0% 75.98 0.0% Unitedhealth Group Inc USD 1.6% H Health Care 5% -0.7% -0.1% 245.37 0.1% Pfizer Inc USD 3.4% H Health Care 5% -0.3% -0.4% 42.76 0.1% Vinci Sa* EUR 3.2% H Industrials 4% 27.1% -0.8% 89.58 1.2% Kingspan Group Plc* EUR 1.0% H Industrials 3% 25.4% -1.3% 46.54 0.9% DCC Plc GBp 2.1% H Industrials 4% 17.6% 1.3% 69.44 0.7% Caterpillar Inc* USD 2.8% H Industrials 2% 1.4% 2.2% 127.23 0.1% SAP Se* EUR 1.4% H Information Technology 4% 32.3% 1.9% 113.54 1.3% Paypal Holdings Inc USD 0.0% H Information Technology 4% 38.1% 1.9% 116.17 1.6% Microsoft Corp* USD 1.4% H Information Technology 5% 31.4% 0.8% 132.45 1.6% Smurfit Kappa Group Plc EUR 3.8% H Materials 5% 17.5% 4.2% 26.6 0.9% CRH Plc* EUR 2.7% H Materials 3% 25.1% -0.7% 28.36 1.3% Rio Tinto Plc GBp 6.7% S Materials 0% 37.7% 5.6% 47.70 1.0% Newmont Goldcorp Corp USD 1.6% H Materials 5% 7.2% 0.7% 35.93 0.6% Greencoat Renewables Plc EUR 5.3% H Utilities 4% 12.2% 0.0% 1.13 0.1% JPMorgan Emerging Markets Trust GBp 1.3% S Emerging Markets 0% 12.9% 2.1% 9.60 0.2% Total 100% 16.17% *Red Denotes a Sell *Green Denotes Additions *Stock has been reweighted Yields are based on the mean of analyst forcast

Warning : Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance All

Warning : The value of your investment may go down as well as up. 4

th Weekly Trader Monday, 17 June 2019

From the News - Monday’s Headlines

• Global Hong Kong protesters maintain push for Carrie Lam’s resignation

• US Powell's Concern Over Zero Rates Seen Lowering Bar for Fed Cut

• Europe ECB’s Coeure Says Risks May Materialize Amid Bleak Market Signs

• UK London Asking Prices Drop Further as BOE Prepares to Meet

• Ireland EY increases forecast for Irish economic growth

CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND LT D 5

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This Weeks Market Events

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Corporate Corporate Corporate Corporate Corporate

n/a Adobe Inc Origin Enterprises Kroger Kraft Heinz Whitbread Berkeley Group Oracle

Economic Economic Economic Economic Economic

EA Wage Growth DE PPI JP Trade Data JP BoJ Decision JP Inflation Data US NY Empire State EA Trade Data GB Inflation Data GB Retail Sales EA/DE/FR Flash PMI Manufacturing Index EA Inflation Data EA Inflation Data GB BoE Decision US Flash PMI EA/DE ZEW Economic US FOMC Decision EA Consumer Sentiment Index Confidence Flash US Housing Data US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

24/06/2019 Carnival 24/06/2019 DE Ifo Business Climate, 25/06/2019 FedEx, Micron 25/06/2019 DE GfK Consumer Confidence, US Housing Data 26/06/2019 Tullow Oil, General Mills 26/06/2019 US Durable Goods Orders, 27/06/2019 Accenture, Walgreens Boots Alliance, NIKE 27/06/2019 JP Retail Sales, EA Business Confidence, DE 28/06/2019 Providence Resources, Constellation Brands Inflation, US GDP Q1 Final, US Pending Home Sales 28/06/2019 JP Industrial Production, GB GDP Q1 Final, EA Inflation Data, US Personal Income, US PCE Price Index

All data sourced from Bloomberg

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th Weekly Trader Monday, 17 June 2019

Regulatory Information Issuer Descriptions: (Source: Bloomberg) AIB Group: AIB Group plc attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. Allianz: Allianz through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services. Alphabet: Alphabet provides web-based search, advertisement, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content and other software services. Amazon: Amazon is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. Caterpillar Inc.: Caterpillar designs, manufactures, and markets construction, mining, and forestry machinery. CRH: CRH is a global building materials group. Dalata Hotel Group: Dalata Hotel Group owns and operates as a chain of hotels. DCC: DCC is a sales, marketing, distribution and business support services company. Glanbia: Glanbia plc is an international dairy, consumer foods, and nutritional products company. The Company conducts operations primarily in Ire- land, the United Kingdom, and the United States Kingspan: Kingspan is a global market player in high performance insulation and building envelope technologies. Microsoft: Microsoft Corporation develops, manufactures, licenses, sells, and supports software products. PayPal: PayPal operates a technology platform that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of customers and merchants Pfizer: Pfizer Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers medicines, vaccines, medical devices, and consumer healthcare products for oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular, and other therapeutic areas Rio Tinto plc: Rio Tinto is an international mining company. Royal Dutch Shell: Royal Dutch Shell explores, produces, and refines petroleum Ryanair: Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe. SAP: SAP is a software corporation that makes enterprise software Smurfit Kappa: Smurfit Kappa manufactures paper packaging products UnitedHealth Group: UnitedHealth owns and manages organized health systems in the United States and internationally Verizon: Verizon Communications Inc. is an integrated telecommunications company that provides wire line voice and data services, wireless services, internet services, and published directory information. VINCI SA: VINCI is a global player in concessions and construction with expertise in building, civil, hydraulic, and electrical engineering Danone: Danone operates as a food processing company. The Company produces and markets dairy products, beverages, baby food, and medical nutrition products. Total: TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. Newmont Goldcorp: Newmont acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. Greencoat Renewables: Greencoat operates as an investment company. The Company invests in wind and renewable electricity generation assets. Sanofi: Sanofi operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Sanofi also develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, and oncology medicines and drugs. Irish Continental Group plc: ICG markets holiday packages and provides passenger transport, roll-on and roll-off freight transport, and container lift on and lift-off freight services between Ireland, the United Kingdom and Continental Europe Apple: Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers and related personal computing and mobile communication devices along with a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions. IRES: Irish Residential Properties Reit Public Limited Company is a an Irish property investment company. The Company's focus is to acquire, hold, and manage investments primarily focused on multi-unit residential real estate and commercial property for third party rental.

None of the above recommendations have been disclosed to the relevant issuer prior to dissemination of this Research. Irish Continental Group plc: We moved our rating from Under Review to Outperform on the 26/11/2018 Apple: We changed our rating on Apple to Market Perform from Outperform, as of 30/01/2019 Sanofi: We initiated with an Outperform on 20/05/2019 Pfizer: We have had an outperform rating on Pfizer since 23/07/2018 UnitedHealth Group: We have had an outperform rating on UnitedHealth Group since 09/07/2018 IRES: We upgraded our recommendation to Buy from Hold on 13/06/2019

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Weekly Trader Monday, 17th June 2019

Regulatory Information

All regulatory disclosures pertaining to valuation methodologies and historical records of the above recommendations can be found on the Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland website here: http://www.cantorfitzgerald.ie/research_disclosures.php Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Limited (“Cantor Ireland”) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. This communication has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Limited of 75 St Stephens Green, Dublin 2, which is an authorised person for the purposes of the European Communities (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2007 (as amended) in Ireland or the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in the United Kingdom. This material is approved for distribution in Ireland by Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd. It is intended for Irish retails clients only and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Cantor Fitzgerald Ire- land Ltd (“CFIL”) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the Lon- don Stock Exchange.

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Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. Investments denominated in foreign currencies are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates, which may have an adverse effect on the value of the investments, sale proceeds, and on dividend or interest income. The income you get from your investment may go down as well as up. Figures quoted are estimates only; they are not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment.

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