BGOV OnPoint: Senate Races to Watch

Election Reporter

Quantitative Analyst

Oct. 22, 2018 2 Democrats Need a Net of Two Seats to Win Control of Senate

If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, the vice president would break the tie, so control determined by the party in the White House

Democrats Republicans 49 51

Senate

Note: Independents, shown in yellow, caucus with the Democrats and are included in the Democratic tally. Source: Bloomberg Government 3 Democrats Are Defending Far More Seats

Two special elections in 2018 after Al Franken (D-Minn.) and (R-Miss.) resigned

Senate Seats up for Election

Now held by Republicans Now held by Democrats

9 12 12 22 22 26

2018 2020 2022

Notes: There are 103 seats shown in the three graphics because of three special elections – two in 2018 and one in 2020. The winners of the Nov. 6 special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi will finish the six-year terms won by Franken and Cochran in 2014, and be up for re-election in 2020. The 2020 graphic includes a special election for the seat formerly held by John McCain (R), who died in August. McCain’s successor, Sen. Jon Kyl (R), won’t run in the special election. The winner of that election will be up for re-election in 2022. Independent Sens. of Vermont and of are running for re-election in 2018 and caucus with the Democrats; they are shown in blue. Source: U.S. Senate 4 All Senate Races, Part 1

Democratic Republican State Incumbent nominee nominee Note Arizona Martha McSally and Feinstein favored over de León, a state legislator who's Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León more liberal Connecticut Chris Murphy Chris Murphy Matthew Corey Delaware Tom Carper Tom Carper Robert Arlett Florida Bill Nelson Bill Nelson Rick Scott Hawaii Mazie Hirono Mazie Hirono Ron Curtis Indiana Joe Donnelly Joe Donnelly Mike Braun King, who caucuses with the Democrats, is seeking Maine Angus King Zak Ringelstein Eric Brakey re-election Maryland Ben Cardin Ben Cardin Tony Campbell Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl Michigan Debbie Stabenow Debbie Stabenow John James Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Jim Newberger Minnesota Tina Smith Tina Smith Karin Housley (special) Wicker benefited from Chris McDaniel switching from Mississippi Roger Wicker David Baria Roger Wicker opposing him in the primary to challenging Cindy Hyde-Smith Mississippi Hyde-Smith running in Nov. 6 nonpartisan single-ballot race Cindy Hyde-Smith (special) along with McDaniel (R) and ex-Rep. Mike Espy (D) Missouri Claire McCaskill Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Montana Jon Tester Jon Tester Matt Rosendale 5 All Senate Races, Part 2

Democratic Republican State Incumbent nominee nominee Note Raybould, a Lincoln city councilwoman, seeks to deny second Deb Fischer Jane Raybould Deb Fischer term in Republican state Nevada Dean Heller Jacky Rosen Dean Heller New Jersey Bob Menendez Bob Menendez Bob Hugin , New Mexico’s Republican governor from 1995 New Mexico Martin Heinrich Martin Heinrich Mick Rich to 2003, seeking seat as Libertarian candidate Kirsten Gillibrand Chele Farley North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer Sherrod Brown Sherrod Brown Jim Renacci Pennsylvania Bob Casey Bob Casey Lou Barletta Sheldon Whitehouse Robert Flanders Tennessee Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Texas Ted Cruz Beto O’Rourke Ted Cruz Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, favored over Utah Jenny Wilson Mitt Romney Wilson, a Salt Lake County councilwoman Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, won Democratic Vermont Bernie Sanders Lawrence Zupan nomination but again rescinded it to seek re-election as an independent. Virginia Tim Kaine Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Washington Maria Cantwell Maria Cantwell Susan Hutchison Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Tammy Baldwin Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Wyoming Gary Trauner John Barrasso BGOV OnPoint: House Races to Watch

Election Reporter

Quantitative Analyst

Oct. 24, 2018 2 Key House Races

Republicans control 240 seats compared with 195 for Democrats when vacant districts are assigned to the parties that most recently held them • Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats for a majority of 218 • There are 25 Republican-held districts that won in the 2016 election and 12 Democratic-held districts that carried

In midterm elections since World War II, the average result has been a net loss of 26 House seats for the White House’s party • Democratic advantages: Midterm election history, President Donald Trump’s subpar approval rating, candidate recruitment and fundraising • Republican advantages: Battle-tested incumbents, redistricting, demographic sorting patterns, outside money

This slide deck provides an overview of: • Current House balance of power • How the White House’s party has fared in past House midterm elections • Profiles of 80 House races worth watching 3 Democrats Need a Net of 23 Seats to Win Control of House

Democrats Republicans 193 235

House

Notes: There are seven vacant districts. Republicans are the defending party in five districts and the Democrats are the defending party in two districts. Source: Bloomberg Government data 4 House Races: Alaska – California

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know House “dean” Young, 85, has touted his seniority and Trump 51% - legislative wins including opening ANWR to oil Alaska-At Large Statewide district Alyse Galvin Rep. Don Young Clinton 37% drilling; Galvin, an education activist, is an independent who won Democratic primary Kirkpatrick previously served rural Arizona in House; Clinton 50% - Lea Marquez Marquez Peterson leads Tucson Hispanic Chamber Arizona-2 Most of Tucson Trump 45% Peterson of Commerce; incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R) is running for Senate Schweikert has won easily but Ethics Committee Parts of Phoenix Trump 52% - Rep. David Arizona-6 Anita Malik probe of his office spending could give Malik an and Scottsdale Clinton 42% Schweikert opening

State Rep. Tucker is bladder-cancer survivor, Trump 52% - Arkansas-2 Little Rock Clarke Tucker Rep. French Hill opposes Pelosi; former banker Hill on Financial Clinton 42% Services Committee

Modesto, Tracy, Clinton 49% - Water a big issue in Central Valley district; Harder is California-10 Josh Harder Rep. Jeff Denham Turlock Trump 46% a venture capitalist

Santa Clarita, Clinton 50% - Hill has background in homeless policy; Knight won California-25 Katie Hill Rep. Steve Knight Palmdale Trump 44% 2nd term in 2016 by 53%-47%

Cisneros is veteran and lottery winner; Kim is Korean- Fullerton, Chino Clinton 51% - California-39 Gil Cisneros Young Kim American former assemblywoman and ex-aide to Hills Trump 43% retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R) Porter, a law professor, co-wrote a book with Sen. Irvine, most of Clinton 50% - California-45 Katie Porter Rep. Mimi Walters Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), under whom she studied Mission Viejo Trump 44% at Harvard

Rohrabacher facing toughest challenge of 30-year Huntington Beach, Clinton 48% - Rep. Dana California-48 Harley Rouda career from Rouda, a real estate executive and Costa Mesa Trump 46% Rohrabacher former Republican

Notes: Republicans are the incumbent party in districts shaded red; Democrats are the incumbent party in districts shaded blue. 5 House Races: California – Florida 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Levin, a lawyer, is a favorite of liberal Progressive Oceanside, Clinton 51% - Change Campaign Committee; Harkey is member of California-49 Mike Levin Diane Harkey Carlsbad Trump 43% CA's tax-writing board of equalization; Rep. Darrell Issa (R) retiring Hunter and his wife indicted in August over campaign Escondido, Trump 55% - Ammar Rep. Duncan California-50 spending; Campa-Najjar worked in Obama Labor San Marcos Clinton 40% Campa-Najjar Hunter Department. Coffman, an Army and Marine Corps veteran on Aurora, other Clinton 50% - Armed Services Committee, beat well-funded state Colorado-6 Jason Crow Rep. Mike Coffman Denver suburbs Trump 41% senator in 2016; Crow is a lawyer and former Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan Ads by Waltz, a former Green Beret commander and Daytona Beach, Trump 56% - White House aide, are tying Soderberg, a professor Florida-6 Palm Coast, Nancy Soderberg Michael Waltz Clinton 40% and veteran national security official, to Nancy Pelosi; Deltona ex-Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) running for governor Lakeland, Tampa Trump 53% - Carlson is a lawyer, Spano is a state representative; Florida-15 Kristen Carlson Ross Spano suburbs Clinton 43% Rep. Dennis Ross (R) retiring Democrats have targeted Buchanan's ethics and vote Bradenton, Trump 53% - Rep. Vern Florida-16 David Shapiro for GOP tax-cut law; Buchanan ads brand Shapiro as Sarasota Clinton 43% Buchanan "millionaire lawyer" and link him to Nancy Pelosi

Mast, an Army veteran of Afghanistan war, opposed Port St. Lucie, Trump 53% - Rep. Florida-18 Lauren Baer for second term by Baer, who served in Obama Jupiter Clinton 44% Brian Mast State Department Part of Miami-Dade Curbelo, who's seeking compromise on immigration County, plus Clinton 56% - Debbie Rep. Carlos policy, is popular in anti-Trump, Hispanic majority Florida-26 Monroe County Trump 40% Mucarsel-Powell Curbelo district; Ecuador-born Mucarsel-Powell is a former (Keys) university official Miami Beach, Retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) a popular Clinton 58% - Florida-27 Coral Gables, Donna Shalala Maria Elvira Salazar moderate; Shalala is ex-HHS Secretary, Salazar a Trump 39% most of Miami Cuban-American broadcast journalist 6 House Races: Georgia – Kansas 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know

Trump 48% - Handel won close 2017 special election; McBath Georgia-6 Atlanta suburbs Lucy McBath Rep. Karen Handel Clinton 47% became gun-control activist after son slain

Most of Gwinnett Woodall, first elected in 2010, sits on Budget and Trump 51% - Georgia-7 and Forsyth Carolyn Bourdeaux Rep. Rob Woodall Rules Committees; Bourdeaux is a public policy Clinton 45% Counties professor and former Senate aide

West, northwest Clinton 49% - Roskam on Ways & Means; Casten has background Illinois-6 Sean Casten Rep. Peter Roskam Chicago suburbs Trump 42% in "clean" energy

Belleville, Kelly, a prosecutor and Navy veteran, seeking Trump 54% - Illinois-12 Carbondale, Brendan Kelly Rep. Mike Bost district that shifted to Trump in 2016 after narrowly Clinton 40% East St. Louis supporting Obama Champaign, Trump 49% - Betsy Dirksen Londrigan has invoked son's recovery from serious Illinois-13 Decatur, most of Rep. Rodney Davis Clinton 44% Londrigan illness in advocating for ACA Springfield

Batavia, Geneva, Trump 48% - Rep. Randy Underwood is a registered nurse with a Illinois-14 Lauren Underwood part of Naperville Clinton 44% Hultgren heart condition

Finkenauer is 29-year-old state representative; Cedar Rapids, Trump 48% - -1 Abby Finkenauer Rep. Rod Blum Freedom Caucus member Blum attacking Finkenauer Dubuque Clinton 45% on health care, immigration, abortion Two-term Rep. Young sits on Appropriations Des Moines, Trump 48% - Iowa-3 Cindy Axne Rep. David Young Committee. Axne is a former state government Council Bluffs Clinton 45% employee Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R) retiring; Davis is former state Trump 56% - House minority leader; Watkins is Army veteran who Kansas-2 Topeka, Lawrence Paul Davis Steve Watkins Clinton 37% won GOP primary with help from super-PAC funded by his father

Overland Park, Clinton 47% - Yoder is chairman of House Appropriations Kansas-3 Sharice Davids Rep. Kevin Yoder Kansas City, Olathe Trump 46% subcommittee that oversees border wall funding 7 House Races: Kentucky – Minnesota 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Trump 55% - McGrath is a former fighter pilot; Barr heads Financial Kentucky-6 Lexington, Frankfort Amy McGrath Rep. Andy Barr Clinton 39% Services' Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee Golden is a state representative and Marine Corps Lewiston, Bangor, Trump 51% - Maine-2 Rep. Bruce Poliquin veteran; district shifted to Trump in 2016 after voting rural Maine Clinton 41% for Obama in 2012 Upton, a former Energy and Commerce chairman, is Trump 51% - touting his role in 21st Century Cures Act. He’s been Michigan-6 Kalamazoo, Portage Matt Longjohn Rep. Fred Upton Clinton 43% held under 60% in the past 3 elections and accused Longjohn, a doctor, of embellishing his credentials Rematch of 2016 race Walberg won 55%-40%, the Jackson, Adrian, Michigan-7 Trump 56%-39% Gretchen Driskell Rep. Tim Walberg best showing of his career; Driskell is a former state Monroe representative Lansing, Rochester Trump 51% - Bishop on Ways & Means Committee; Slotkin was Michigan-8 Elissa Slotkin Rep. Mike Bishop Hills Clinton 44% Defense Department official in Obama administration Stevens worked on auto-rescue policy in Obama Livonia, Troy, Trump 50% - Michigan-11 Haley Stevens Lena Epstein administration; Epstein is wealthy businesswoman; Novi Clinton 45% Rep. Dave Trott (R) retiring after two terms Rare takeover opportunity for GOP as Rep. Tim Walz (D) runs for governor; Feehan is an Army Trump 53% - Minnesota-1 Rochester, Mankato Dan Feehan Jim Hagedorn veteran and former Defense Department official; Clinton 38% Hagedorn, a son of a former congressman, almost beat Walz in 2016 Trump 47% - Rematch of 2016 race Lewis won by less than Minnesota-2 Eagan, Burnsville Angie Craig Rep. Jason Lewis Clinton 45% 2 points Bloomington, Clinton 50% - Paulsen sits in Ways & Means Committee and ran Minnesota-3 Dean Phillips Rep. Erik Paulsen Plymouth Park Trump 41% well ahead of Trump in 2016 Rep. Rick Nolan (D) didn't seek new term in Trump 54% - ancestrally Democratic Iron Range district that shifted Minnesota-8 Duluth, Hibbing Joe Radinovich Pete Stauber Clinton 39% to back Trump in 2016; may be best GOP pickup opportunity in nation 8 House Races: Missouri – New Jersey

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Wagner has touted work to curb online sex trafficking Trump 52% - and Dodd-Frank regulations; VanOstran, a young Missouri-2 St. Louis suburbs Cort VanOstran Rep. Ann Wagner Clinton 42% lawyer, invokes his mother's cancer in advocating for ACA

Trump 56% - Gianforte won 2017 special election 50%-44% after Montana-At-Large Statewide district Kathleen Williams Rep. Greg Gianforte Clinton 36% assaulting reporter; Williams is a state representative

Trump 49% - Eastman in primary beat moderate ex-Rep. Brad Nebraska-2 Omaha Kara Eastman Rep. Don Bacon Clinton 46% Ashford, whom Bacon unseated in 2016

Henderson, part of Trump 48% - Lee and Tarkanian lost House bids in 2016; Rep. Nevada-3 Susie Lee Danny Tarkanian Las Vegas Clinton 47% Jacky Rosen (D) running for Senate

Unusual race between two ex-House members; Part of Las Vegas, Hardy unseated Horsford in pro-GOP 2014 and Clinton 49% - ex-Rep. ex-Rep. Nevada-4 most of N. Las then lost in 2016 to Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D), Trump 45% Steven Horsford Cresent Hardy Vegas who didn't seek second term amid sexual harassment allegations Pappas, an elected executive councilor, would Manchester, Dover, Trump 48% - become state's first gay member of Congress; -1 Chris Pappas Eddie Edwards Derry Clinton 46% Edwards, a former police chief, would be its first black congressman South-central: parts Kim is an Obama administration alum with a Trump 51% - Rep. Tom New Jersey-3 of Burlington & Andy Kim background in national security; MacArthur and Clinton 45% MacArthur Ocean counties Republicans say Kim embellished his résumé

Bridgewater, Clinton 48% - Rep. Leonard Lance is on Energy & Commerce Committee; New Jersey-7 Tom Malinowski Westfield Trump 47% Lance Malinowski served in Obama's State Department 9 House Races: New Jersey – New York

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Sherrill, a former prosecutor and Navy veteran, may Trump 48% - be favorite over assemblyman Webber in race to New Jersey-11 North-central Mikie Sherrill Jay Webber Clinton 47% succeed retiring Appropriations chief Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Las Cruces, Trump 50% - Rep. Steve Pearce (R) running for governor; district is New Mexico-2 Roswell, Xochitl Torres Small Yvette Harrell Clinton 40% majority-Hispanic Alamogordo

Eastern , Trump 54% - Zeldin's campaign referring to Gershon as "Park New York-1 Perry Gershon Rep. Lee Zeldin Hamptons Clinton 42% Avenue Perry"

GOP avoided disaster when Donovan won June Staten Island, part of Trump 54% - New York-11 Max Rose Rep. Dan Donovan primary over ex-Rep. Michael Grimm; Rose is Southwest Brooklyn Clinton 44% military veteran

Kingston, Trump 51% - Delgado is a lawyer and Rhodes Scholar; Republican New York-19 Antonio Delgado Rep. John Faso Oneonta Clinton 44% ads have called him a “big-city rapper”

Utica, Trump 55% - Rep. Claudia Tenney seeking second term in central New York; New York-22 Anthony Brindisi Binghamton, Rome Clinton 39% Tenney Brindisi is state assemblyman

Katko, a former prosecutor, has bipartisan appeal and Clinton 49% - New York-24 Syracuse Dana Balter Rep. John Katko was re-elected with 60% in 2016; Balter is a professor Trump 45% and activist

Buffalo and Trump 60% - Collins, indicted on insider trading charges, seeking New York-27 Nate McMurray Rep. Chris Collins Rochester suburbs Clinton 35% re-election after initially saying he wouldn't 10 House Races: North Carolina – Pennsylvania

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Most of Rocky Holding's attack ads against Coleman, a former state Trump 53% - Rep. George North Carolina-2 Mount, part of Linda Coleman representative, and intervention of GOP super-PACs Clinton 43% Holding Raleigh & suburbs point to a competitive race

Harris, a Baptist pastor, unseated Rep. Robert Trump 54% - North Carolina-9 Charlotte suburbs Dan McCready Mark Harris Pittenger (R) in primary; McCready is Marine Corps Clinton 42% veteran and solar-energy businessman

Most of Greensboro Trump 53% - Manning announced in July she won't back Pelosi North Carolina-13 Kathy Manning Rep. Ted Budd and High Point Clinton 44% for speaker

Trump 51% - Pureval, the Hamilton County (Cincinnati) Clerk of Ohio-1 Most of Cincinnati Aftab Pureval Rep. Steve Chabot Clinton 44% Courts, would be first Tibetan-American congressman

Part of Columbus & Trump 52% - Rep. Troy Rematch of Aug. 7 special election Balderson won by Ohio-12 Danny O'Connor suburbs; Zanesville Clinton 41% Balderson less than 1 point

Joyce, an Appropriations Committee member, voted Cleveland/Akron Trump 53% - Ohio-14 Betsy Rader Rep. Dave Joyce against GOP health-care bill and has distanced suburbs Clinton 42% himself from Trump Redistricting in 2018 made suburban district slightly Bucks County & Clinton 49% - Rep. Brian more Democratic; Fitzpatrick has broken with GOP Pennsylvania-1 small part of Scott Wallace Trump 47% Fitzpatrick on environmental and labor votes; wealthy Wallace Montgomery County is grandson of ex-VP Henry Wallace Rep. Charlie Dent (R), a popular moderate, resigned Allentown, Clinton 49% - Pennsylvania-7 Susan Wild Marty Nothstein in May; reconfigured district is more compact and Bethlehem Trump 48% Democratic-friendly Cartwright seeking third term in reconfigured Scranton, Trump 53% - Rep. Matt district that's ancestrally Democratic but shifted to Pennsylvania-8 John Chrin Wilkes-Barre Clinton 44% Cartwright back Trump in 2016; Chrin is a wealthy former investment banker 11 House Races: Pennsylvania – Utah

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know

Trump 52% - Redistricting in 2018 made district less GOP-friendly; Pennsylvania-10 Harrisburg, York George Scott Rep. Scott Perry Clinton 43% Scott is a pastor and 20-year Army veteran

DiNicola, a Harvard-educated ex-Marine, seeks to Trump 58% - Pennsylvania-16 Erie, New Castle Ron DiNicola Rep. Mike Kelly deny Kelly fifth term; Trump stumped for Kelly and Clinton 38% other Republicans in Erie Oct. 10

Lamb, who won nationally significant special Trump 49% - Pennsylvania-17 Suburban Pittsburgh Rep. Conor Lamb Rep. Keith Rothfus election in April, opted to challenge Rothfus after Clinton 47% lines redrawn

State Rep. Arrington, a Trump loyalist, unseated Trump 54% - South Carolina-1 Charleston area Joe Cunningham Katie Arrington Rep. (R) in primary; Cunningham is a Clinton 40% lawyer and ocean engineer

Western Harris Clinton 48% - Rep. John Fletcher, a lawyer, seeking to unseat nine-term Texas-7 Lizzie Fletcher County (Houston) Trump 47% Culberson Rep. Culberson, a House Appropriations "cardinal"

Parts of San Clinton 50% - Ortiz Jones, a military veteran, seeks to unseat Hurd Texas-23 Gina Ortiz Jones Rep. Will Hurd Antonio & El Paso Trump 46% in vast Hispanic-majority district

Clinton 49% - Sessions is Rules Committee chairman; Allred played Texas-32 Part of Dallas Colin Allred Rep. Pete Sessions Trump 47% in NFL and worked in Obama administration's HUD

West Jordan, South Many Republicans voted for Evan McMullin over Trump 39% - Utah-4 Jordan, part of Salt Ben McAdams Rep. Mia Love Trump in 2016; Love seeking third term against Clinton 32% Lake City McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County 12 House Races: Virginia – Wisconsin

2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Virginia Beach, Trump 48% - Both candidates are Navy veterans in Navy-heavy Virginia-2 Williamsburg, Elaine Luria Rep. Scott Taylor Clinton 45% coastal district Eastern Shore Rep. Tom Garrett (R) not seeking second term. Southside, Trump 53% - Cockburn, a longtime journalist, and Riggleman, Virginia-5 Leslie Cockburn Denver Riggleman Charlottesville Clinton 42% a distillery owner and Air Force veteran, are first-time candidates Spanberger is former CIA officer; Brat, who unseated Richmond Trump 50% - Virginia-7 Abigail Spanberger Rep. Dave Brat Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 primary, is in suburbs Clinton 44% Freedom Caucus Higher-income, well-educated area drifting away D.C. Clinton 52% - Rep. Barbara from Republicans; Comstock opposed GOP's ACA Virginia-10 Jennifer Wexton suburbs/exurbs Trump 42% Comstock replacement and supported tax-cut law; Wexton is state senator

Trump 50% - Rep. Jaime Long, a college professor, ran competitively with Washington-3 Vancouver Carolyn Long Clinton 43% Herrera Beutler Herrera Beutler in August primary

Spokane, Trump 52% - Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is No. 4 House Republican; Washington-5 Lisa Brown Walla Walla Clinton 39% McMorris Rodgers Brown is ex-state Senate majority leader

Pediatrician Schrier and ex-state Sen. Rossi, who Clinton 46% - Washington-8 Seattle suburbs Kim Schrier Dino Rossi has also run for governor twice and senator once, Trump 43% seek to succeed retiring Rep. Dave Reichert (R)

South - Huntington, Trump 73% - Ojeda is a state senator and Army veteran; Miller is a West Virginia-3 Richard Ojeda Carol Miller Beckley Clinton 23% state representative

Speaker not seeking re-election; Bryce is Trump 52% - Wisconsin-1 Kenosha, Racine Randy Bryce ironworker and Steil is University of Wisconsin regent Clinton 42% and ex-Ryan aide