BGOV OnPoint: Senate Races to Watch Election Reporter Quantitative Analyst Oct. 22, 2018 2 Democrats Need a Net of Two Seats to Win Control of Senate If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, the vice president would break the tie, so control determined by the party in the White House Democrats Republicans 49 51 Senate Note: Independents, shown in yellow, caucus with the Democrats and are included in the Democratic tally. Source: Bloomberg Government 3 Democrats Are Defending Far More Seats Two special elections in 2018 after Al Franken (D-Minn.) and Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) resigned Senate Seats up for Election Now held by Republicans Now held by Democrats 9 12 12 22 22 26 2018 2020 2022 Notes: There are 103 seats shown in the three graphics because of three special elections – two in 2018 and one in 2020. The winners of the Nov. 6 special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi will finish the six-year terms won by Franken and Cochran in 2014, and be up for re-election in 2020. The 2020 graphic includes a special election for the Arizona seat formerly held by John McCain (R), who died in August. McCain’s successor, Sen. Jon Kyl (R), won’t run in the special election. The winner of that election will be up for re-election in 2022. Independent Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are running for re-election in 2018 and caucus with the Democrats; they are shown in blue. Source: U.S. Senate 4 All Senate Races, Part 1 Democratic Republican State Incumbent nominee nominee Note Arizona Jeff Flake Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally Dianne Feinstein and Feinstein favored over de León, a state legislator who's California Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León more liberal Connecticut Chris Murphy Chris Murphy Matthew Corey Delaware Tom Carper Tom Carper Robert Arlett Florida Bill Nelson Bill Nelson Rick Scott Hawaii Mazie Hirono Mazie Hirono Ron Curtis Indiana Joe Donnelly Joe Donnelly Mike Braun King, who caucuses with the Democrats, is seeking Maine Angus King Zak Ringelstein Eric Brakey re-election Maryland Ben Cardin Ben Cardin Tony Campbell Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl Michigan Debbie Stabenow Debbie Stabenow John James Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Amy Klobuchar Jim Newberger Minnesota Tina Smith Tina Smith Karin Housley (special) Wicker benefited from Chris McDaniel switching from Mississippi Roger Wicker David Baria Roger Wicker opposing him in the primary to challenging Cindy Hyde-Smith Mississippi Hyde-Smith running in Nov. 6 nonpartisan single-ballot race Cindy Hyde-Smith (special) along with McDaniel (R) and ex-Rep. Mike Espy (D) Missouri Claire McCaskill Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Montana Jon Tester Jon Tester Matt Rosendale 5 All Senate Races, Part 2 Democratic Republican State Incumbent nominee nominee Note Raybould, a Lincoln city councilwoman, seeks to deny second Nebraska Deb Fischer Jane Raybould Deb Fischer term in Republican state Nevada Dean Heller Jacky Rosen Dean Heller New Jersey Bob Menendez Bob Menendez Bob Hugin Gary Johnson, New Mexico’s Republican governor from 1995 New Mexico Martin Heinrich Martin Heinrich Mick Rich to 2003, seeking seat as Libertarian candidate New York Kirsten Gillibrand Kirsten Gillibrand Chele Farley North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer Ohio Sherrod Brown Sherrod Brown Jim Renacci Pennsylvania Bob Casey Bob Casey Lou Barletta Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Sheldon Whitehouse Robert Flanders Tennessee Bob Corker Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Texas Ted Cruz Beto O’Rourke Ted Cruz Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, favored over Utah Orrin Hatch Jenny Wilson Mitt Romney Wilson, a Salt Lake County councilwoman Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, won Democratic Vermont Bernie Sanders Lawrence Zupan nomination but again rescinded it to seek re-election as an independent. Virginia Tim Kaine Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Washington Maria Cantwell Maria Cantwell Susan Hutchison West Virginia Joe Manchin Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Wyoming John Barrasso Gary Trauner John Barrasso BGOV OnPoint: House Races to Watch Election Reporter Quantitative Analyst Oct. 24, 2018 2 Key House Races Republicans control 240 seats compared with 195 for Democrats when vacant districts are assigned to the parties that most recently held them • Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats for a majority of 218 • There are 25 Republican-held districts that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 election and 12 Democratic-held districts that Donald Trump carried In midterm elections since World War II, the average result has been a net loss of 26 House seats for the White House’s party • Democratic advantages: Midterm election history, President Donald Trump’s subpar approval rating, candidate recruitment and fundraising • Republican advantages: Battle-tested incumbents, redistricting, demographic sorting patterns, outside money This slide deck provides an overview of: • Current House balance of power • How the White House’s party has fared in past House midterm elections • Profiles of 80 House races worth watching 3 Democrats Need a Net of 23 Seats to Win Control of House Democrats Republicans 193 235 House Notes: There are seven vacant districts. Republicans are the defending party in five districts and the Democrats are the defending party in two districts. Source: Bloomberg Government data 4 House Races: Alaska – California 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know House “dean” Young, 85, has touted his seniority and Trump 51% - legislative wins including opening ANWR to oil Alaska-At Large Statewide district Alyse Galvin Rep. Don Young Clinton 37% drilling; Galvin, an education activist, is an independent who won Democratic primary Kirkpatrick previously served rural Arizona in House; Clinton 50% - Lea Marquez Marquez Peterson leads Tucson Hispanic Chamber Arizona-2 Most of Tucson Ann Kirkpatrick Trump 45% Peterson of Commerce; incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R) is running for Senate Schweikert has won easily but Ethics Committee Parts of Phoenix Trump 52% - Rep. David Arizona-6 Anita Malik probe of his office spending could give Malik an and Scottsdale Clinton 42% Schweikert opening State Rep. Tucker is bladder-cancer survivor, Trump 52% - Arkansas-2 Little Rock Clarke Tucker Rep. French Hill opposes Pelosi; former banker Hill on Financial Clinton 42% Services Committee Modesto, Tracy, Clinton 49% - Water a big issue in Central Valley district; Harder is California-10 Josh Harder Rep. Jeff Denham Turlock Trump 46% a venture capitalist Santa Clarita, Clinton 50% - Hill has background in homeless policy; Knight won California-25 Katie Hill Rep. Steve Knight Palmdale Trump 44% 2nd term in 2016 by 53%-47% Cisneros is veteran and lottery winner; Kim is Korean- Fullerton, Chino Clinton 51% - California-39 Gil Cisneros Young Kim American former assemblywoman and ex-aide to Hills Trump 43% retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R) Porter, a law professor, co-wrote a book with Sen. Irvine, most of Clinton 50% - California-45 Katie Porter Rep. Mimi Walters Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), under whom she studied Mission Viejo Trump 44% at Harvard Rohrabacher facing toughest challenge of 30-year Huntington Beach, Clinton 48% - Rep. Dana California-48 Harley Rouda career from Rouda, a real estate executive and Costa Mesa Trump 46% Rohrabacher former Republican Notes: Republicans are the incumbent party in districts shaded red; Democrats are the incumbent party in districts shaded blue. 5 House Races: California – Florida 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Levin, a lawyer, is a favorite of liberal Progressive Oceanside, Clinton 51% - Change Campaign Committee; Harkey is member of California-49 Mike Levin Diane Harkey Carlsbad Trump 43% CA's tax-writing board of equalization; Rep. Darrell Issa (R) retiring Hunter and his wife indicted in August over campaign Escondido, Trump 55% - Ammar Rep. Duncan California-50 spending; Campa-Najjar worked in Obama Labor San Marcos Clinton 40% Campa-Najjar Hunter Department. Coffman, an Army and Marine Corps veteran on Aurora, other Clinton 50% - Armed Services Committee, beat well-funded state Colorado-6 Jason Crow Rep. Mike Coffman Denver suburbs Trump 41% senator in 2016; Crow is a lawyer and former Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan Ads by Waltz, a former Green Beret commander and Daytona Beach, Trump 56% - White House aide, are tying Soderberg, a professor Florida-6 Palm Coast, Nancy Soderberg Michael Waltz Clinton 40% and veteran national security official, to Nancy Pelosi; Deltona ex-Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) running for governor Lakeland, Tampa Trump 53% - Carlson is a lawyer, Spano is a state representative; Florida-15 Kristen Carlson Ross Spano suburbs Clinton 43% Rep. Dennis Ross (R) retiring Democrats have targeted Buchanan's ethics and vote Bradenton, Trump 53% - Rep. Vern Florida-16 David Shapiro for GOP tax-cut law; Buchanan ads brand Shapiro as Sarasota Clinton 43% Buchanan "millionaire lawyer" and link him to Nancy Pelosi Mast, an Army veteran of Afghanistan war, opposed Port St. Lucie, Trump 53% - Rep. Florida-18 Lauren Baer for second term by Baer, who served in Obama Jupiter Clinton 44% Brian Mast State Department Part of Miami-Dade Curbelo, who's seeking compromise on immigration County, plus Clinton 56% - Debbie Rep. Carlos policy, is popular in anti-Trump, Hispanic majority Florida-26 Monroe County Trump 40% Mucarsel-Powell Curbelo district; Ecuador-born Mucarsel-Powell is a former (Keys) university official Miami Beach, Retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) a popular Clinton 58% - Florida-27 Coral Gables, Donna Shalala Maria Elvira Salazar moderate; Shalala is ex-HHS Secretary, Salazar a Trump 39% most of Miami Cuban-American broadcast journalist 6 House Races: Georgia – Kansas 2016 presidential Democratic Republican State-district Location election results nominee nominee What you need to know Trump 48% - Handel won close 2017 special election; McBath Georgia-6 Atlanta suburbs Lucy McBath Rep.