ETHOS / 1 2 / Ethos is a biannual publication of the Centre for Governance and Leadership, College. It aims to provide thought leadership, insight and context on a wide range of issues of interest to .

Ethos is circulated to the policymaking community in Singapore as well as to a select international readership. It is also available online at: www.cscollege.gov.sg/ethos

We welcome contributions, suggestions and letters to the Editor. The editorial team reserves the right to select, edit and publish articles according to its editorial policy. All correspondence should be directed to:

The Editor, ETHOS Centre for Governance and Leadership Civil Service College 31 North Buona Vista Road Singapore 275983 Fax: +65 6775 8207 Email: [email protected]

Editorial Team Alvin Pang – Managing Editor | Sheila Ng, Liza Lee – Editors Tan Li San, Stephanie Tan – Editorial Advisors

©2012 Civil Service College, Singapore

The mission of the Civil Service College (CSC) Singapore is to develop people for a first-class . CSC was inaugurated as a statutory board under the Public Service Division, Prime Minister’s Office, in October 2001. As the ’s core institution for training, learning, research and staff development, CSC builds strategic capacity in governance, leadership, and management for a networked government in Singapore.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Editor and the Centre for Governance and Leadership, CSC. The opinions and views expressed in Ethos are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Centre for Governance and Leadership, the Civil Service College or the Public Service Division.

ISSN: 1793-3773 Contents Issue 11, August 2012

3 Editorial 50 Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement 5 Economic Thinking and in a Globalised Singapore Practice in Singapore Vernie Oliveiro Interview with Ravi Menon 59 Public Diplomacy: An 10 The Future of Tripartism Emerging New Normal in Singapore: Concertation in Foreign Policy or Dissonance? Premarani Somasundram Soh Tze Min 67 Policymaking for Real People 19 The Danish Book review: Behavioural Economics and Negotiated Economy Policy Design: Examples from Singapore Ove K. Pedersen edited by Donald Low Reviewed by Tan Yeling 26 Don’t Close Off Options in Tackling Income Gap 71 How Not to Lose the War Interview with David Autor on Poverty Book review: Fighting Poverty Together: 30 Population Ageing Requires Rethinking Strategies for Business, Adaptive Responses, Not Just Government and Civil Society to Reduce Poverty by Aneel Karnani Technical Ones Reviewed by Jeanne Conceicao Donald Low and Melinda Elias 75 Managing Transitions 36 Public Engagement: Khoo Ee Wan The Gap between Rhetoric and Practice 83 New Capabilities in Strategic Kenneth Paul Tan Leadership: Insights from Singapore 43 What the Private Sector Sheila Ronis Has Learnt about Public Engagement Chng Hak-Peng editorial

he challenge with globalisation,” has had to reflect on its basic social “T argues Ravi Menon — currently institutions, seeking to strengthen Managing Director of the Monetary those that confer “whole-of-society” Authority of Singapore — is not its competitive advantages (p. 19). overall effects but its distributional some observers believe that Singapore ones. “There are almost always some needs to bolster its own institutions who lose,” he points out in an interview for consensus building and public published in this issue of ETHOS engagement (a theme explored in the (page 5). That the survival and success Oct 2011 issue of ETHOS), as a way to of Singapore depends on our economic reduce blindspots in policymaking, and vitality and relevance to world markets to galvanise broader participation in remains a given. The question is how pursuit of shared public outcomes such best to improve the lot of those who are as inclusive growth. Associate Professor less able to benefit from the particular Kenneth Paul Tan believes that recent activities that sustain Singapore — a efforts to foster greater engagement concern, Menon suggests, that has between the Government and the always been at the core of public policy. public have fallen short of expectations the matter appears far from settled. (p. 36). He attributes this to ingrained As the world’s economies continue to assumptions and structural biases that struggle through the tumult of financial have to be overcome before a more crisis, the adequacy of venerable social constructive relationship can develop. structures and long-held values are being Management consultant and former called into question. A more diverse civil servant Chng Hak-Peng outlines socioeconomic and demographic landscape strategies which the private sector has and other rapidly evolving market realities found productive in trying to harness could place fresh strain on Singapore’s the enthusiasm — and even criticism — cornerstone tripartite partnership of their stakeholders. Centre for between labour, government and business Governance and Leadership researcher (p. 10) as well as on current provisions for Vernie Oliveiro suggests ways in which healthcare (p. 30) and wages (p. 26). Even the Government could make the most Denmark — long considered a bastion of the complex and diverse decision- of inclusive national development — making ecology in which public policy

ETHOS / 3 now operates (p. 50). In a similar vein, there are no ready-made solutions Premarani Somasundram argues that it to the dilemma of globalisation, even no longer suffices for states to conduct if the contours of the challenges ahead diplomacy behind closed doors: the have become better and more widely reception of foreign publics is now known, and hence more broadly a factor in achieving national goals, contested. A pragmatic rather than even as the line between domestic and dogmatic approach to policy should foreign policy continues to blur in an remain the gold standard in governance interconnected world (p. 59). for some time to come, even if it could that skews and limitations are demand greater reserves of ingenuity, inherent in human cognition and flexibility, compassion, and patience decision-making is a central theme in the years ahead. of behavioural economics — a recent volume points out how insights from ******* this relatively new discipline have informed policy design in Singapore We have revised the visual presentation (p. 67). Another recent book, by University of ETHOS from this issue onwards, to of Michigan scholar Aneel Karnani provide a more attractive and effective (p. 71), calls into question the efficacy of layout, with better use of infographics, prevailing strategies to fight poverty — textual highlights, illustrations, and including the notion that economic related information. growth will readily trickle down to I hope you will find ETHOS an the poor. Instead, he advocates active even better read, and look forward government intervention to ensure that to any comments or suggestions you key services remain accessible to the might have for the new format, or our poor, even as the public, private and editorial content. civil sectors collaborate to address critical gaps in the market. Alvin Pang Managing Editor, ETHOS [email protected]

4 / Editorial Interview WITH RAVI MENON

Economic Thinking and Practice in Singapore

The application of economic principles to public policy has shifted significantly over the past decade, in response to new insights and changing circumstances, the Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore explains.

Ravi Menon was appointed Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2011. He was Ravi Menon previously Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Trade & Industry and Deputy Secretary at the Ministry of Finance.

This interview was In light of the recent global financial so, the ways in which we apply conducted as part crisis, to what extent are the fundamental economic principles to public policy of a research project principles of economics still applicable? on the evolution of must evolve and adapt. The operating economic thinking The fundamental principles of economics context and circumstances have changed and practice in remain relevant. For example, people considerably. We should incorporate Singapore over the respond to incentives; globalisation new paradigms such as behavioural past decade by the Centre for Governance is on the whole good for national economics to reinterpret these principles and Leadership, welfare. But we now have a richer in light of changes to the operating Civil Service College. and more nuanced understanding of environment so that they may be applied It was prepared these principles compared to say 10 in more effective ways. for publication by Godwin Tang, formerly years ago. Incentives operate in ways Senior Researcher at more complex than the rationality How have insights from behavioural the Centre. assumptions in classical economics. economics influenced public policy? And the challenge with globalisation is In some sense, the Government has not its overall effects (which are almost already been incorporating behavioural always positive) but its distributional considerations in the design of its policies effects (there are almost always some over the past decade. For example, the who lose). Government has adopted the use of

ETHOS / 5 default options for policies aimed at behaviour. While the behavioural improving participation — offering an school provides an alternative avenue “opt-out” rather than “opt-in” option for for understanding human motivations choices like human organ transplant and responses, it does not readily throw and MediShield1 coverage. up solutions or prescriptions to policy other insights from behavioural issues. The onus is still on policymakers economics have been more recent. to take a balanced view across different For example, we now have a fuller perspectives, apply judgement on the appreciation of how “loss-averse” people basis of reason and experience, and can be — something we perhaps did come up with workable solutions — not fully understand when we shifted all the while, maintaining a healthy the emphasis from ownership taxes to dose of scepticism and a willingness user fees with respect to controlling to change and adapt if things do not congestion on our roads. User fees turn out as expected. It is of critical like Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) importance that a pragmatic policymaker make economic sense because they are is prepared to hold opposing ideas in based on two key insights: one, that his mind and judiciously apply them it is driving a car rather than owning according to different contexts and it that causes congestion, and two, changing circumstances. rational people make decisions “at the margin” — meaning, if the marginal cost In what ways should the application of of an action (an ERP charge) is greater fundamental economic principles be than its marginal benefit, then the rational reconsidered in light of changing contexts? choice is not to undertake that action An area where we have been reconsidering (make that particular trip by car). But existing paradigms is with respect to we now know from observed behaviour social safety nets. Singapore’s traditional that car owners are more likely to drive antipathy towards welfare and safety their cars around as much as possible nets is well-founded and premised on to “recoup” their initial “investments” concerns about “moral hazards” — if on their vehicles, notwithstanding something is subsidised, people consume ERP charges! Economists call this the too much of it; if benefits are given to “sunk cost fallacy” — it is not rational those who have lost their jobs, they behaviour, but it is real. And because it will prefer to remain unemployed. An is real, we have to deal with it. entitlement mentality weakens the work At the same time, we should not ethic and moral fibre of society. And get carried away by these behavioural experience elsewhere has shown how quirks and reject all notions of rational real these effects can be.

6 / Economic Thinking and Practice in Singapore But there is another dimension. The as often imagined. Take for example, unfettered operation of the market will hawker centres. I regard them as one yield highly unequal outcomes, not to of our safety nets. Singapore is one of mention a high degree of volatility. the few First World cities which offer There is also some evidence that good quality meals at almost Third growing inequality, in turn, leads to World prices — thanks to its hawker less social mobility. High inequality and centres. How is this possible? It is in low mobility also reduce public support large part through the provision of for pro-growth policies. And all of this “hidden” subsidies that keep rental is indeed happening in many parts of costs low. It is therefore a general the world, including Singapore. In our subsidy that is available to all those case, volatility will be exacerbated as who patronise hawker centres — rich we progressively transit to a high-wage, and poor alike. An economically more high-productivity economy. But how efficient approach would be to have the to design safety nets which blunt the “correct” rentals (and therefore higher more egregious effects of globalisation food prices at the stalls) and give food and yet preserve the work ethic? The stamps and vouchers on a means-tested Workfare Income Supplement (WIS) — basis to target help to the poor. But which provides some income security this economically neat solution ignores to low-wage workers — is a recent the not insignficant transaction and example of how we have sought to do coordination costs in administering a this.2 We will need to examine other regime of food vouchers, not to mention areas of our social policies to see how the issue of adjudicating who would we can design safety nets that are more qualify. And so, our current regime is robust yet compatible with the right not a bad one. incentives — to create hope as well as opportunity. There has been recent debate about Another area where constant re- the need to generate more “inclusive thinking is required is in the choice growth”. What are your views? between general subsidies and targeted The pursuit of economic growth has subsidies. The Government has generally never been for its own sake. It was, eschewed subsidies and transfers that rather, for the purpose of serving the apply across the board and instead greater social good of enabling all opted for targeted, means-tested help. Singaporeans to have rising standards The two obvious exceptions are in of living. The sustained growth of the education and in public housing. But Singapore economy over the last four even in other areas, it is not as targeted decades has been a critical factor in

ETHOS / 7 lifting most, if not all, boats. Robust growth through higher productivity economic growth has also afforded and we help the remaining 30%, than the Government greater fiscal space one where only 50% of the workforce to redistribute resources to help those earn good wages and the rest have who have lagged behind. However, in to be helped through redistribution. recent times, changes to the quality of The latter approach would not Singapore’s economic growth, due to a be sustainable. combination of external factors, such as the global financial crisis, and domestic Have public policies in Singapore factors, such as an ageing population, been guided too strongly by economic have raised questions over whether perspectives, at the expense of social economic growth alone is sufficient and other considerations? for achieving that greater social good This is perhaps a misconception about on a sustained basis. The problem is the purpose of economic analysis. not growth per se, but the quality of Economics is not about dollars and that growth. cents; it is about scarcity and choice. We also need to be clear on what Because resources are limited, we cannot we mean by “inclusive growth”. Some have more of everything; we have to view it largely in terms of a “new social choose. This entails weighing costs compact”, arguing that with globalisation and benefits, and making trade-offs and technological change, market among competing ends, which is what forces will lead to worsening income most public policies are about. redistribution and that the Government some costs and benefits can be should therefore extend its social safety quantified, many others cannot be nets wider. The emphasis is on fiscal measured easily. But in making any redistribution. Others have articulated public policy decision, we are implicitly the need for a “new growth model” imputing a value to the benefits and which will focus on skills upgrading costs of different options. Sound and higher productivity, which will economic analysis helps us to be clear enable the market mechanism to deliver about these costs and benefits and respectable wage growth for the majority find the most efficient ways to achieve of the workforce. The emphasis is on multiple objectives. Which particular economic restructuring. I think we need efficient option we choose depends both aspects but economic restructuring on the judgements we make about should be the main approach. It is unquantifiable factors. Economics cannot better to have a situation where 70% tell us what our judgements should be; of the workforce enjoys good wage they depend ultimately on our values.

8 / Economic Thinking and Practice in Singapore the choices in our public policies between reducing dependence on foreign will become more complex and difficult: workers and relieving cost pressures, and between safeguarding the environment so on. Economic analysis can provide and promoting growth, between lowering valuable rigour that will help us make taxes and helping the disadvantaged, better informed choices.

NOTES

1. MediShield is a low-cost catastrophic illness 2. The Workfare Income Supplement Scheme insurance scheme designed to help members provides more income and retirement savings meet medical expenses from major illnesses, when older, low-wage Singaporeans work which could not be sufficiently covered by and stay employed, while Workfare Training their Medisave balance. MediShield operates Support Scheme complements the former on a co-payment and deductible system by encouraging them to go for and complete to avoid problems associated with first- training, so that they take on more productive dollar, comprehensive insurance. For more work, improve their employability and move out information, see http://www.moh.gov.sg/ of low-wage employment. For information, see content/moh_web/home/costs_and_financing/ http://www.workfare.sg/ schemes_subsidies/Medishield.html

ETHOS / 9 The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance?

Singapore’s tripartite model of labour relations has underpinned three decades of success, but it must now contend with destabilising forces in the modern globalised economy.

by Soh Tze Min is Senior Researcher at the Centre for Governance and Leadership, Civil Service College. Her research interests are in social policy research and the policy sciences. She holds a Masters in Public Soh Tze Min Policy from the School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

10 / The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance? Tripartism in Singapore: its tripartism model. In 2011, the World A Social Partnership Economic Forum ranked Singapore as While labour unrest is accepted as a the most competitive Asian country 1.02Mil WORKDAYS LOST common phenomenon and an unavoidable that possessed the most cooperative business cost for investors in many labour-employer relations.5 In 2011, the US developed countries, it is almost unheard experienced a total of in Singapore, where a track record of Cultural and Structural of 19 work stoppages peaceful industrial relations has been Foundations of Tripartism involving 113,000 a surety against the loss of business in Singapore workers, amounting to 1.02 million and production opportunities and a key In spite of its widely recognised benefits, workdays lost. attraction for investors. Singapore’s the centralised tripartite model is fast Source: “Economic News peaceful industrial relations — a becoming a rarity. Countries such as Release: Work Stoppages centrepiece of its economic Australia, Ireland and the UK have Summary”, United States Department of competitiveness — have often been turned from a centralised tripartite Labor, Bureau of Labor attributed to its model of tripartism: model to enterprise-based collective Statistics, accessed 9 February, 2012, a “social partnership” 1 of t he bargaining, characterised by growing http://www.bls.gov/news. Government, employers and workers.2 numbers of disparate trade unions each release/wkstp.nr0.htm In a process of “policy concertation”,3 competing for members, and contending the tripartite partners negotiate, with employers for employment benefits aggregate and align their interests according to the particularistic interests towards national objectives of economic of their members. and social development even as they Given this global context, the represent and advocate for the broad longevity of Singapore’s tripartite interests of their respective constituents. model continues to intrigue observers. the role of a centralised tripartite Proponents exhort Singapore’s tripartite social partnership in fostering social partnership as a “really dynamic, effective and economic progress is not unique to tripartism that is very functional, very Singapore, as it is also being practised pragmatic, very operational”6 — one in Germany and Austria. It is well that deals with pertinent interests recognised among labour economists that of the Government, employers and countries with some form of tripartite workers. Critics deride tripartism in partnership and engagement have Singapore as a tool for “bureaucratic- better economic and social outcomes — authoritarian corporatism” where trade economic efficiency, top line growth and unions have become “primarily, arms social equity — compared to those with of government”7 that facilitate state enterprise-based bargaining.4 In this control of labour for the interest of regard, Singapore’s economic growth businesses and “are not, therefore, really stands as a testimony to the success of trade unions”.8

ETHOS / 11 The US unemployment rate increased from Labour relations and the global crisis 5.8% in 2008 during the subprime crisis to 9.3% in 2009. It he 2008 global financial crisis brought into sharp relief the centrality increased to 9.8% in T of Singapore’s tripartism model to its economic development. The 2010 and has been concertation of tripartite interests kept industrial relations in Singapore hovering between 8.8% and 9.2% in peaceful and facilitated labour market adjustments during the crisis. the first two quarters Consequently, Singapore bucked global trends and continued to experience of 2011. Its GDP overall employment growth during the 2008 crisis. This is the first time grew by 3% in 2010 and is projected to that Singapore’s employment rate grew during an economic downturn. remain between 2.5% Employment numbers continued to increase from 2.95 million in 2008 and 2.17% till 2012. to 2.99 million in 2009.1 The retention of human capital gave Singapore Legislation such the competitive advantage to respond quickly to the unexpected rebound. as minimum wage and labour union As a result, Singapore achieved a strong economic performance of 14.5% wage mark-ups have growth in GDP in 2010, fuelled mainly by expansion in the manufacturing hampered flexible sector which grew by 19.3%.2 labour adjustments to market forces and kept its unemployment In stark contrast, social tensions arising from the breakdown of trust rates persistently high. between businesses, labour and the governments in the US, UK and Europe

Source: United States Union countries brought labour negotiations to a stalemate, exacerbated Department of Labor; unemployment and further attenuated economic growth. Bureau of Labor Statistics; International Monetary Fund.

NOTES Ireland’s 1. “Key Manpower Statistics. Employment”, 2. “Singapore Yearbook of Statistics 2011: unemployment rate Ministry of Manpower, accessed July 24, 2011, Key Indicators”, Singapore: Ministry increased from 6.4% http://www.mom.gov.sg/statistics-publications/ of Trade and Industry, Department of in 2008 to 13.6% in national-labour-market-information/statistics/ Statistics, June 2011. 2010 and its GDP Pages/employment.aspx contracted by 13% from €180 million in 2008 to €156 million in 2010. What is evident is that tripartism Structural Foundation Source: UK National has developed into a key institution S ingapore’s tripartite model Office of Statistics; Central Statistics Office that is central to Singapore’s social and institutionalises structures and Ireland; International economic development. Its institutional processes that aggregate and align Monetary Fund. strength rests upon its resilience and interests between the Government, adaptive capability, which rest on its employers and workers. It provides a structural and cultural foundations.

12 / The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance? platform for balancing the trade-offs employer-employee relations — requires and benefits among its stakeholders: profound trust. While institutionalised structures and processes for negotiation • Businesses enjoy profitability form the hardware of tripartism, the from access to high quality human software that keeps it going is a culture capital and factors of production at of mutual understanding and consensus. competitive rates. In return, they This cultural foundation was laid in the contribute to economic growth and early days of Singapore’s Independence, the transfer of knowledge and skills between the National Trades Union 12.9 to Singapore’s labour force. Congress (NTUC) and the Government. TIMES Workers organised under the NTUC • Workers accept wage moderation in have distinguished themselves from return for economic growth, which more confrontational union approaches sustains employment and wage by positioning themselves as “positive growth through redistribution of agents for modernisation and progress”.9 economic gains. Since the unions Rather than contending with employers take the broader view of supporting for wages and employment benefits employment for all workers, rather through collective bargaining, the NTUC 2010: The average than protecting only unionised has supported the national objective of income of households employed workers, Singapore is able economic growth and seeks benefits for in the top 20% was 12.9 times more to avoid insider-outsider conflicts all workers, not only unionised workers. than those in the that typically characterise industrial It has done so from the premise that it is bottom 20%. relations elsewhere. “bourgeoning areas of employment”10 — from economic growth and progress — • The Government leverages culture, that fuel organised labour. structures and leadership within NTUC’s fundamental position the tripartite partnership to signal of voluntarily supporting economic national directions. It also provides growth to preserve employment and resources—convening capital income security for workers help and labour to move in an aligned disprove criticisms that trade unions in and cohesive manner towards Singapore are co-opted “de facto arms national goals. of the government”.11 The symbiotic relationship between NTUC and Cultural Foundation the Government was born out of a Balancing the conflicting interests convergence of respective interests between the tripartite partners — in during the early days of independence, particular potentially contentious when the ruling party’s policy of

ETHOS / 13 economic growth through rapid disparity are undermining the industrialisation also advanced worker foundation of a centralised tripartite interests. This early relationship partnership premised upon the established a foundation of mutual distribution of the fruits of economic trust and consensus that continues growth. In the last decade, real wages to this day. in Singapore have fallen two-fold from 5.3% in 2000 to 2.7% in 2010.14 ‘The right to work’ and ‘the right to Correspondingly, Singapore’s Gini organise’ and all the other sacred cows of Coefficient has seen an upward trend, increasing from 0.43 in 2000 to 0.45 trade unions in the developed countries in 2010 where the average income are the RESULT, and not the CAUSE of of households in the top 20% is 12.9 times more than those in the bottom economic growth and progress. 20%, an increase from 10.1 times in 2000.15 - The late Devan Nair, then Secretary- Left unmitigated, such trends are General of NTUC12 likely to increase workers’ demands for jobs and income security through The Challenges of Tripartism collective bargaining and representation Around the world, tripartism is waning: which contradict employers’ interests to union membership is declining across minimise business costs. Such opposing Europe, Ireland, Netherlands and South interests between businesses and Korea.13 Globalisation has skewed workers can strain tripartite relations bargaining power in favour of businesses and are likely to make it more difficult by expanding labour supply and increasing to achieve consensus in the future. factor mobility, heightening conflicts between business and worker interests. Growing Workforce Diversity With an open economy, Singapore is With the restructuring of Singapore’s hardly immune to the destabilising economy to focus on knowledge-based forces of globalisation. Furthermore, activities, the proportion of Professionals, changes in the social, economic and Managers, Executives and Technicians political environment are raising (PMETs) in Singapore’s resident labour16 questions about the sustainability of force has increased from 42% in 1999 tripartism in Singapore. to 52% in 2010.17 This implies that the NTUC, which has traditionally focused Widening Socioeconomic Disparity on Singaporean rank and file workers, Growing economic volatility, wage will need to recalibrate its advocacy stagnation and widening income and representation.

14 / The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance? Changes in the social, example, Transitioning.org’s online NO AUSTERITY petition “Employ Singaporeans First” NO TO CUTS economic and political led to a public forum for unemployed environment are raising PMEs at the Speakers’ Corner on 25 June 2011. The forum called for the questions about the implementation of minimum wage, In January 2012, a public transport strike sustainability of tripartism “Singaporeans first” employment in Belgium opposing in Singapore. practices, and a re-examination of the the European Union’s pro-business tripartite model.21 proposed austerity In order to strengthen its relevance While such “alternative unions” measures halted rail, buses, flight and port to its constituents, NTUC is already remain isolated and relatively small, services and other attempting to regain ground with its they portend a proliferation of advocacy essential activities. constituents. NTUC’s recent push to platforms and interests that could be more “pro-worker” and seek better well detract from the efficacy of employment for Singaporeans18 is Singapore’s tripartite model based on the manifested in its open thoughts about aggregation of interests. As concertation “pushing for a cap on the number of becomes difficult, if not impossible, foreigners in white-collar jobs”19 and a worker interests that have fallen through review of CPF cuts for older workers.20 the gaps are more likely to seek a voice Such assertions signal a shift from with alternative advocacy groups, the traditional approach of consensus accelerating the disaggregation of building within the tripartite partnership. advocacy. Given this backdrop, the NTUC may even have to seriously Alternative Platforms for Representation consider the possible emergence of a and Advocacy rival union in future. Contending with NTUC’s role of advocating and representing worker Risk of Complacency rights are the growing numbers of In addition to external social and political alternative worker advocacy platforms. pressures, the cultural foundation of Social media organisations are tripartism in Singapore, building on harnessing the reach of the Internet its historical legacy, faces the risks to challenge traditional union of erosion by its own success. Three representation and provide advocacy for decades of peaceful industrial relations specific segments such as displaced may have come to be taken for granted and unemployed PMEs. Many of these by a new generation of Singaporeans new advocacy movements are now able who have not experienced fractious to garner sufficient support online to industrial relations, and who may not enact real world action for change. For feel the need to maintain the health of

ETHOS / 15 Singapore’s union membership grew by The future of tripartism: Three scenarios

40% ow might tripartism evolve in an increasingly complex and challenging from 314,475 in 2000 H environment? Three scenarios are possible: to 549,878 in 2010. Tripartism Endangered Driving forces in the environment are pulling the respective tripartite partners in different directions, and gaming by any one of the partners to gain maximum benefits for its constituents could damage trust in tripartite processes. Tripartism could be superseded by growing numbers of disparate independent interest groups advocating and contending for different worker interests—such as older workers, women, foreigners and local workers—along with alternative business interest groups who have similarly broken away from a federation representing employers’ interests.

Tripartism Rejuvenated The adaptive capacity and resilience and the institutional strength of Singapore’s tripartite model could prevail, allowing the essence of trust, mutual understanding and consensus to be retained while engaging with more diverse and complex worker demands. Should the process of negotiations and consensus building then become messier and more complex, the Government would have to play a greater role in balancing the interests between business and workers.

From Tripartite to Multipartite Relations The essence of trust, mutual understanding and cooperation may well be preserved within the tripartite partnership. But rather than having individual leaders representing aggregated interests from each stakeholder group, there will be collective leadership from businesses and unions to represent variegated stakeholder interests. Similarly, the Government would have to play a greater role in balancing these interests.

16 / The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance? tripartite institutions. Were tripartism complex ways of working through perceived to become less relevant to divergent interests and views — but stakeholders, the partnership could nevertheless coming to a constructive splinter into disparate, even contending, consensus between workers, employers interest groups, each attempting and the Government? to amplify their value to their While its institutional strength, respective constituents. strong cultural and structural foundations seem likely to sustain this centralised Whither Tripartism? form of collective representation in the Tripartism has helped maintain near- to medium-term, tripartism’s long- Singapore’s social cohesion, competitive term survival amidst an increasingly advantage, and economic resilience for complex environment remains debatable. the past 30 years. Its viability and value Nevertheless, the demonstrated are premised on the delicate balancing adaptability of Singapore’s tripartite of diverse interests among tripartite partnership could well see it through partners, and aligning energies towards the many uncertainties ahead. common objectives that maximise all interests. The inherent fragility of such a balancing act has been mitigated by the shared dedication and mutual trust of generations of active tripartite partners. Will tripartism in Singapore persist as a partnership of concertation or will it break down into a dissonance of interests? The reality that tripartism has to contend with is one where interests are likely to be disparate and diverse. In such an environment, would it crumble and be superseded by disparate independent interest groups? Or would it evolve new forms of consensus building — perhaps more untidy and

ETHOS / 17 NOTES

1. Katz, Harry, Lee, Wonduck and Lee, Joohee, 10. See Endnote 9. eds, The New Structure of Labor Relations: Tripartism and Decentralization (New York: 11. See Endnote 7. Cornell University Press, 2004). 12. See Endnote 9. 2. In Singapore’s tripartite process, employers are represented by the Singapore National 13. See Endnote 1. Employers Federation (SNEF), and workers by the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC). 14. “Earnings and Wages”, Ministry of Manpower, accessed 26 July 2011, http://www.mom. 3. Fraile, Lydia, ed., Blunting Neo-Liberalism: gov.sg/statistics-publications/national-labour- Tripartism and Economic Reforms in the market-information/statistics/Pages/earnings- Developing World (Basingstoke, UK; New York: wages.aspx#tabs-2-2 Palgrave Macmillan, 2010). 15. Singapore Department of Statistics, Key 4. See Endnote 3. Houshold Income Trends, 2010 (Singapore: Department of Statistics, 2011). 5. Schwab, Klaus, The Global Competitiveness Report 2011–2012 (Geneva: World Economic 16. Residents include both Singaporean citizens Forum, 2011), 470. and permanent residents — foreigners who are granted long-term residency in Singapore. 6. Quote from Mdm Cleopatra Doumbia-Henry, Director for International Labour Standards, 17. Ministry of Manpower, Report on Labour Force International Labour Organisation, in in Singapore, 2010 (Singapore: Ministry of Speech by Mr , Minister For Manpower, 2011). Manpower at the 2nd International Trade Union Confederation For Asia And The Pacific 18. Lin, Marcus, “Labour Movement Goes Full (Ituc-Ap) Regional Conference, 11 May Throttle for Workers”, NTUC This Week 142 2011, Wednesday, 10.20am, NTUC Club (2010), p.2. Downtown East. 19. “NTUC Reshaping To Be More Pro-Worker, 7. Barr, Michael D., “Trade Unions in an Elitist Pro-Citizen”, The Straits Times, June 1, 2011. Society: The Singapore Story”, Australian Journal of Politics and History, 46 (2000): 20. Kor, Kian Beng, “NTUC Looking at 480-496. Reviewing CPF for Older Workers”, The Straits Times, July 15, 2011. 8. See Endnote 7. 21. Transitioning.org, http://www.petitiononline. 9. Nair, Devan C., Not by Wages Alone: Selected com/Employed/petition.html (accessed Speeches and Writings of C.V. Devan Nair, July 24, 2011). 1959–1981 (Singapore: The National Trades Union Congress, 1982).

18 / The Future of Tripartism in Singapore: Concertation or Dissonance? The Danish Negotiated Economy

Denmark thrives on a strategy of institutional competitiveness: policies, incentives and norms that create a whole-of-society comparative advantage.

by Ove K. Pedersen founded the International Center for Business and Politics and is Professor in Comparative Political Economy at the Copenhagen Business School. He is Honorary Professor of Public Ove K. Pedersen Administration at Aalborg University and has been a visiting scholar to Stockholm, Harvard, Stanford and Sydney Universities and Dartmouth College. He has been writing political commentaries for several years for a number of Danish newspapers and was awarded the best communicator of scientific knowledge (2008) by the Minister for Science, Technology and Development.

$

ETHOS / 19 Introduction negotiations involving a still greater Denmark is characterised by a number number of organised interests. of distinct traits: a small and open Consequently, we see a general economy, a stable democratic political long-term trend in the direction of a system, a high proportion of organised negotiated order in important sectors wage earners covered by collective of the economy: in the labour markets agreements, a political culture marked managing the wage formation by by social partnership, and a long consensus mobilisation; in the political tradition of institutionalised class- system managing state reforms through cooperation. In this sense, Denmark cooperative negotiations; in intensive has not only developed from a market formal and informal relations between to a mixed economy, but from a mixed the state and organised interests to a negotiated economy. managing European integration; and Because of its political history, the finally in adapting national industrial institutional structure in Denmark structures through collaborative is hybrid. Market power and state arrangements between the state and authority are mixed in corporate other actors. bodies. Public authority is delegated the negotiated economy, however, to a large number of private and semi- is more than an instrument for public institutions, and decisions are decision-making. In general, the taken in negotiations among mutually negotiated economy consists of several autonomous and collectively types of organisations, each covering organised partners. different functions. Some of these organisations analyse socioeconomic Negotiations and the Economy problems and identify the political measures In Denmark, negotiations are widely necessary to solve them. Others describe used as instruments for decision-making actual problems in socioeconomic terms; in relation to the allocation of productive at the same time they conceptualise resources as well as the (re)distribution social issues in ways that can achieve of output. This said, important changes broad acceptance throughout the have taken place in the last 25 years political system by the majority of the as a result of European integration population. Others aim at transforming and globalisation. For example, new the dominant perception of socioeconomic and more extensive and intensive problems into systematically structured, cooperative arrangements have been analytically justified language codes. erected — with the result that a growing All these organisations attempt proportion of economic allocation is now to mobilise mutual understanding conducted through institutionalised of a socioeconomic situation, which

20 / The Danish Negotiated Economy functions as a discursive framework for Reform of Society and State negotiations. The actual framework, In the 1990s and early 2000s, Denmark known as the socioeconomic discourse, experienced a relatively short but has taken more than 50 to 60 years very hectic period of prosperity after to develop and constitutes a blend of a comprehensive reorganisation of its liberal and social democratic principles. political and economic institutions. In It is liberal in the sense that it respects the 1980s, Denmark’s welfare state was the autonomy of economic actors and reformed through a series of pragmatic organised interests, and it views the compromises between multiple parties. Danish economy as an open economy At the beginning of the 1990s, the that is exposed to international competition unintended consequences of this and must find ways to be internationally unplanned reform became evident. In competitive. It is social democratic in 1960, Danish public expenditures, as the sense that it portrays the national a proportion of gross national product economy as a “community of fate” with (GNP), were lower than the average a multiplicity of social interests, and within the Organisation for Economic attempts to secure the interests of the and Co-operation and Development whole by inducing social pacts, helping (OECD) (24.6% of GNP in Denmark the parts to act responsibly with respect versus 26% of GNP in the OECD). In to the overall socioeconomic balance. 1992, the picture had changed: Danish public expenditure was 60.2% of GNP, Because of its political compared to the OECD average of history, the institutional 48.5%. Again, it was not before the mid-1980s that the need to curtail structure in Denmark is internal cost and external demand hybrid. Market power and was translated into a policy to reduce public expenditure, and not until mid- state authority are mixed 1990s that this policy achieved rather in corporate bodies. remarkable results. Despite the successful application Within this common worldview, of austerity measures, severe multiple actors engage in institutionalised macroeconomic problems remained. The negotiations on the themes and growth of the competitive industrial procedures for negotiations, and sign sector was never sufficient to finance agreements. Arbitration and sanctioning imports and growing welfare expenses. organisations conciliate and sanction Austerity created a high and persistent breaches of agreements. level of unemployment. Annual inflation soared. Many believed that inflation was

ETHOS / 21 driven by public and private sector wage the 1980s, greater understanding of the growth and began to doubt whether nature of international competitiveness traditional corporatist institutions could led to the development of a new set still moderate wage demands. The efficacy of microeconomic problems and of Keynesian demand management instruments. The need for structural was also questioned, particularly when adjustment was addressed with public sector spending appeared to initiatives emphasising much closer be unsustainable. Consequently, the coordination — across issues, and government needed new means to between public and private actors. address the macroeconomic imbalances. Around 1990, the conception It was eventually acknowledged of structural problems shifted from that the most decisive elements in a focus on barriers to growth and the economic downturn stemmed in adaptation in Danish industry, to fact from the international nature of the adaption of Danish society as a the crisis in the 1980s. This led to whole — including both the public and the recognition of the need to move private sectors. This new conception of from a policy of stabilisation (demand structural policy represented a much oriented) to one of growth (output more continuous, simultaneous and, oriented). The acceleration of economic importantly, integrated structural integration across Europe, and the adaptation of the public and private gradual deregulation of industrial sectors. The concept of institutional and financial sectors under the World competitiveness was introduced, and Trade Organisation and European emphasis was put on institutional change. Union, put pressures on the Danish industrial structure. This accentuated The intent of institutional the relative importance of having a long- competitiveness is to use term structural policy and supply-side measures, and the need for reform of institutional reforms available macroeconomic instruments. and behavioural change

In Search of a National Strategy to create comparative This reform took place between 1976 advantages. and 1996. Measures towards a structural policy were established, including the Consequently, structural policy development of an active industrial policy, became more micro-oriented, entailing the modernisation of the public sector, not only coordination and restructuring and the reframing of macroeconomic within and between policy sectors but and microeconomic issues. By the end of also a continuous review of policies for

22 / The Danish Negotiated Economy What is Institutional Competitiveness?

n the 1960s and 1970s, international competitiveness was understood as wage competitiveness, I managed by demand-side policies. By the 1980s, measures of competitiveness were reformulated as a composite index to include the relative unit cost of labour, capital costs, productivity, and exchange-rate development. The dominant emphasis was on the importance of a national economy’s productive structure, the technology content and marketing of its products, the degree of flexibility of its labour markets and industrial organisation, as well as the productivity and efficiency of its public sector. The modernisation of the state was seen as a condition for the restructuring of industry and labour, with a review of the welfare state regarded as necessary for enhancing competitiveness. International competitiveness came to be understood as structural competitiveness, and later as institutional competitiveness. Active industrial and labour-market policies, and the creation of an efficient welfare state, would come to dominate the socioeconomic discourse with a focus on supply-side oriented measures. In general terms, institutional competitiveness is the capacity of a country to compete by reforming the institutional (legal, political, economic and cultural) context for firms, and by intervening in the attitudes, values, aspirations, and interests of citizens and firms. The intent is to use institutional reforms and behavioural change to create comparative advantages.

the population as a whole. This entailed other policies were oriented, including an ongoing emphasis on institutions stabilisation policies. (norms and incentives) and their reform. this shift in strategy was perhaps • Next, several programmes and clearest in the area of public sector plans were initiated to promote modernisation, where there were efforts experimentation with new types to reconsider the role and boundaries of public sector governance and of the entire public sector: new relations between public and private bodies. • From 1990, Fiscal Policy Statements published by the Ministry of Finance • In a third phase, drawing attention to began to treat questions of structural the existing boundaries between state transformation as the overarching and economy, the microeconomic consideration towards which most efficiency of the entire public

ETHOS / 23 sector became a key ingredient. introduced. A key premise for this The welfare state came to be looked development was a number of legal upon as a primary instrument for adjustments in 1983 that gave shifting incentives and motivations wage-earner funds and pension- for youths as well as the working funds more leverage on the Danish population, through reforms to the capital market, allowing these funds tax structure as well as welfare to play an important role in capital benefits and services. allocation. This development was made possible by the emergence of In Search of New Instruments bipartite and tripartite institutions, Since this strategic shift in the 1990s, who came to a consensus on the the institutional reform of four policy necessary policy adjustments and areas has been at the centre of continuous structural changes. negotiations and policy changes: 3. Welfare policies. Massive employment 1. Wage policy. Since 1987, a peculiar programmes were implemented institutional arrangement on the from 1976 in the light of high (8% labour market has made it possible to 9%) unemployment rates. From for the government and peak- 1982 to 1989, a new labour market organisations in the private and the policy was attempted. The intention public labour market to manage wage was to restructure the composition formation by consensus mobilisation. of the labour force and improve its Indirect guidance and control of the flexibility through pre- and on- wage formation was increasingly job-training programmes. Today, used to adjust nominal wages to education (including re-education) is ever-changing macroeconomic considered the primary mechanism conditions. The flexibility gained for adjusting the labour force. by this lack of clear-cut distinction between state intervention and 4. State reforms. Public expenditures self-regulation was based on the came under control due to strict willingness of the organisations austerity measures at the end of the to implement wage limits without 1980s. New models for managing government intervention. the public sector were introduced, including limits established in the 2. Structural policy. During the 1990s that made deficit spending 1980s, institutionalised forms of next to impossible. Other public investment through pension funds sector reform initiatives included and wage-earner capital were privatisation programmes (few

24 / The Danish Negotiated Economy examples), deregulation (some a time lag for policy adjustments is examples), outsourcing to be expected, questions about the (several examples), New Public efficiency of the change process have Management measures (many been raised. This is why the economic examples), and decentralisation results of this highly cooperative of the wage formation (very political culture in Denmark have been many examples). slow in coming, yet have been very impressive once they took momentum Conclusion in the 1990s up till 2008. Today, Denmark has a general system significantly, the global financial of negotiations. Each year, the Ministry crisis from 2008 did not mark of Finance negotiates the state budget Denmark as it had other European with other ministries in order to prepare countries. Unemployment from 2008 the government’s budget proposal for to 2012 has been relatively low (6%); parliamentary approval. Once the budget the balance of payment positive; is approved, the Ministry negotiates foreign debt is now at a historic low; with local authority peak organisations inflation has been moderate. Relative to determine how much money the to Sweden and Germany, Denmark was regions and municipalities get from the hit by low productivity — a reminder national budget. Every second year, the of the need for ongoing labour market labour market organisations negotiate reforms. Private household debt did national wage agreements that set the soar as a result of deregulation of the parameters within which subsequent house market in the 1990s and financial labour market negotiations transpire at policies in the 2000s. The general the sector and firm levels. The Ministry system for negotiations has been of Finance participates as the peak expanded to include more actors, levels organisation for all public employers and policies. A new wave of major at the state, region and county levels. labour market reforms was initiated the emergence of a strategy for by tripartite negotiations at the institutional competitiveness is a rather beginning of 2012. Denmark’s strategy new phenomenon. Severe questions for institutional competitiveness remain as to its implementation. remains intact. Problems and ambiguities persist. The overwhelming complexity of a negotiated economy is one reason why the new national strategy has remained vague. Another is the small and open character of the Danish economy. While

ETHOS / 25 Interview WITH DAVID AUTOR

Don’t Close Off Options in Tackling Income Gap

A leading US labour economist discusses the challenges of rising income inequality in Singapore.

Professor Autor, Associate Head of the Economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of David Autor Technology, is a labour economist specialising in human capital and earnings inequality, as well as the impact of globalisation and technological change on labour markets. He is known for his work on the polarisation of job opportunities in the American labour market, where the replacement of routine, middle- rung jobs by technology has left the bulk of openings in the high-skill, high-wage sector and labour- intensive, low-wage sector. His work has won him awards from organisations such as the National Science Foundation and the Society of Labor Economists in the US. He serves as a faculty research associate at the US National Bureau of Economic Research and editor-in-chief of the Journal of Economic Perspectives published by the American Economic Association.

Professor David Autor Can wage inequality be tackled by but rather on the options available to was in Singapore to raising productivity? people holding those jobs. speak at a symposium on achieving inclusive Focusing on productivity growth alone this is where education comes in. growth organised by may not close the wage gap because If you make people skilled in doing the Ministry of Trade productivity does not rise evenly across other things, they will demand higher and Industry and the all sectors. Technology has allowed wages to do their current jobs, because Civil Service College. He was interviewed productivity in manufacturing to they have other opportunities. Barbers by The Straits Times rise manifold, but society has not yet have not grown their productivity much journalist Tan Hui Yee, quite figured out how to make less over the past few decades, but are paid who contributed this standardised work, like domestic work more over time because they have to be article to ETHOS. or food services, a lot more productive. compensated for cutting hair instead You are not going to make someone 100 of doing something else. times more productive at hair-cutting, People care a lot less about inequality for instance. In such cases, wage growth when everybody is getting wealthier, may not hinge so much on productivity but economic growth does not reduce

26 / Don’t Close Off Options in Tackling Income Gap inequality. If everything grows at the does not necessarily need to come from same rate together, then inequality frontier scholars. does not increase. Singapore’s leaders have called You have advocated making higher for businesses to be more inclusive, to education available to as many as create better jobs for those in the lower possible. How will this be paid for? rungs and give them a fair share of the Raising the education level of your productivity gains. What do you think population increases productivity and about this? incomes. In many ways, educated people If you said this in the US, I would say also do better in life. However, not all of it is not viable. In Singapore, the power it has to be paid for publicly, because a of public officials to influence behaviour lot of the benefits are private. The fact of corporations through moral suasion that more people go for college education and through examples is probably much does not mean the government has to larger. But, to the degree that equality spend an ever larger share of national is a public good, it is very difficult to income subsidising higher education. get private actors to provide it. the nature of a public good is that Economic growth does we all benefit from it but it does not not reduce inequality. If make sense to do it on our own. We all believe we should have taxes, but if we everything grows at the made taxes voluntary, you would be an same rate together, then idiot to pay them. If you want to have a military, you cannot hope that people everything stays the same. will just donate weapons and show up for military training; you tax people over time, I would hope that higher in order to form a military. education becomes more efficient. It is not logical to expect individual Currently, it is an elite system and companies to provide public goods, carried out in a very expensive way. because it may hurt their competitive You have educator-scholars, but they position to do so. For example, it will are expensive because they do not spend be very expensive for one company to most of their time teaching. A lot of provide maternity leave when others do their salaries goes into allowing them not, because a lot of people who know to conduct research. But that need not they are going to have kids will choose be the case. When college education to work for that company. But we can is universally provided, the teaching all agree that these things need to be

ETHOS / 27 provided, and so collectively pass a law What do you make of the common lament to say we are all going to do it. that locals simply will not do certain jobs, like construction and waiting on tables? Recently there has been discussion We have this debate in the US all the about the low salaries paid to cleaning time about agricultural work. People contractors, which then depress the say if we did not have Mexicans illegally wages of cleaners. What is your view of coming into California and Texas to the practice of outsourcing functions work the fields, then it could not be done like cleaning? because no native would do it. Of course, Having companies specialising in what they really mean is that “no native contract cleaning, contract security, would do it at the wages we are paying”. and so on is not necessarily a bad thing. It could well be that locals would have But if you are concerned about labour to be paid twice as much as immigrants standards — whether cleaners are before they are willing to work in these given vacation time, guaranteed hours unpopular jobs. But if you set the wage and reasonable wage standards — you high enough, people will do it. People want to make sure those standards are will do a lot of things for money. applied regardless of whether they do the problem with filling low-wage it at a contract labour firm or at the positions with immigrants from poorer primary employer. It is a matter of countries is that it not only depresses legislating in a manner that does not wages in those sectors, but also makes create special advantages in one sector those jobs unappealing to locals. Once at the expense of another. jobs are perceived as immigrant jobs, traditionally, many employers who natives are less likely to take on the hired their own cleaners would treat work as it diminishes their status. them well because they were long-term employees. They did not want to give Are there any other areas worth looking the impression that some workers were into as Singapore tries to tackle treated badly while others were treated wage inequality? well. When they moved to contracting, It could re-examine its stance on the they said, “Well, it’s not our problem capital gains tax. Taxation is the most anymore”. Therefore, it may lead to the common way of transferring resources effect of reducing labour standards in from the rich to the poor, but choosing those activities. But if you are concerned to tax income and not capital gains — about that, it is not outsourcing as Singapore does — is not necessarily per se that is the problem. It is about efficient. People can always try to reduce not having labour standards. their tax burden by transforming their earnings into capital gains. The idea

28 / Don’t Close Off Options in Tackling Income Gap that a capital gains tax will drive the to choose between extremes. There is a rich away is largely unfounded. There lot of room to adjust at the edges. I fear are reasons why people want to be in that Singapore’s policymakers perceive Singapore. It is a dynamic society; it the country to be far more economically is a great place to live; it is safe and a vulnerable than is warranted — as if great place to do business; and it is not the game is over if they make one false corrupt. The circumstances in Singapore move. In reality, and to the credit of are not such that if you make just one Singapore’s sound public policies, the small adjustment, the next day you country is in an enviable position, with a wake up and there will be no rich people well-educated workforce, quality business left. True, some wealthy residents may environment, robust institutions and choose to pack up and go if taxes rise, access to a dynamic Asia which provide but many countries with high tax rates, a lot of room for economic expansion in like Norway and Germany, continue the future. There is scope to experiment to retain large numbers of wealthy, with new policies — such as a minimum productive citizens. wage or more progressive capital Another area worth looking into taxation — without needing to fear is minimum wage. It has not had a disaster. Singapore could raise labour destructive effect on jobs in countries that costs a bit; it could tax this or that. And have implemented it. Instead, it means it might, after a while, say this was a that workers are used more productively, good or bad idea, but it would not make because workers are not so cheap that some horrendous irreversible error that you can use them unproductively. And would cause the country to be ruined neither will it stop low wage workers within a year, or anything along from working harder. A government those lines. would not set the minimum wage at a singapore’s foundations are quite level where people can say, “Wow, I’ve solid. There are countries that get got a minimum wage, I can just chillax wealthy quickly in ways that are not for the rest of my career”. People aspire sustainable, primarily through the for much more. As growing incomes put export of natural resources. When erstwhile luxuries within reach, people the oil runs out, the whole game is up. tend to strive harder in order to be able Singapore, in contrast, has something to afford these goods and services. more durable — skills, good government and social harmony. Those tend to What are some potential stumbling reproduce themselves. They are very blocks that Singapore might face? difficult to replicate. And they do not It is important for Singapore not to fade away quickly. close off any option. You do not have

ETHOS / 29 Opinion

Population Ageing Requires Adaptive Responses, Not Just Technical Ones

Beyond increased public spending, Singapore’s ageing population should prompt a deep rethinking about the structures, risks and values underpinning our healthcare system.

by Donald Low is currently Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore and a consultant on economic and social policies. He has served in various capacities in the Singapore Government. Donald Donald Low helped to establish the Centre for Public Economics at the Civil Service College in 2009, and served as its founding director for the first two years. He was formerly Director of Fiscal Policy at the Ministry of Finance, as well as Director of the Strategic Policy Office in the Public Service Division. He is also the editor of the book Behavioural Economics and Policy Design: Examples from Singapore (reviewed in this issue on page 67). The views expressed in the article are his own. and MELINDA ELIAS Melinda Elias is a researcher at the Healthcare Leadership College at MOH Holdings Pte Ltd. The views expressed in the article are her own.

The Singapore Government’s Budget hospitals and a doubling of the capacity for 2012 has been widely lauded for its of long-term care services. Equally commitment to increase social protection welcome are the announcements to and invest in the country’s capacity to expand the coverage of MediShield cope with an ageing population. In a to those aged between 85 and 90, the Budget remarkable for its emphasis extension of subsidies for long-term on social spending, the measures in care to a larger segment of the elderly healthcare are arguably the boldest population requiring such services, and and most important. The Government top-ups to citizens’ Medisave accounts. has projected a doubling of healthcare Nevertheless, increased spending spending, from the current S$4 billion and capacity in healthcare do not to about S$8 billion a year, in the next automatically produce better outcomes five years. This will enable a 30% in the health and well-being of the increase in the number of beds in acute population. The ageing of our population,

30 / Population Ageing Requires Adaptive Responses, Not Just Technical Ones and its implications for our health, Indeed, the current reorganisation social and fiscal systems, constitute of Singapore’s health services an adaptive challenge1 — our leaders clusters — from two large clusters and policymakers in public healthcare to six geographically-based regional will have to consider at least three health systems — reflects a shift to a distinct perspectives beyond increasing more population- and patient-centred public spending in healthcare: how our approach in healthcare delivery. The healthcare system is organised, how 2012 Budget measures to engage incentives and risks are structured, and private and non-profit providers also whether we foster the right norms and hint at longer-range efforts to harness values to support successful ageing. the resources that reside outside of the public sector. Taking a Systems Approach to the Organisation and Delivery of Care Increased spending and capacity in Significant changes in Singapore’s healthcare do not automatically produce demographics and disease patterns in the long term may have fundamental better outcomes in the health and well- implications on how our healthcare being of the population. delivery system operates in the long run. For instance, around 80% of those Within each regional health system, currently above age 65 suffer from one the emphasis is very much on providing or more chronic illnesses; the incidence more patient-centric care through of chronic illnesses is likely to increase multi-disciplinary teams involving as Singapore ages. Along with this specialists, general practitioners, nurses, epidemiological transition, healthcare care coordinators, social workers and utilisation patterns will shift from allied health professionals. There are acute care to the primary, long-term also efforts to integrate care across and social care sectors. different parts of the healthcare system. historically, the Singapore Over time, our healthcare system should Government has invested in developing evolve from one structured as separate a strong acute care sector, but has left hierarchies — usually with doctors primary care and long-term care mostly at the apex — to one organised as a to private and non-profit providers. fluid network in which the professional The shifts in our disease patterns, taking the lead may change depending largely as a consequence of an ageing on context and the circumstances of the population, will necessitate significant patient. Our healthcare system would changes in the way care is organised become better organised around the and delivered. needs of the patient and the population,

ETHOS / 31 rather than the needs of professionals or Getting the Balance of Risks in healthcare organisations. These changes Healthcare Right to the organisation of the healthcare The allocation of healthcare risks system reflect the Government’s between state and individuals will also recognition that an older population have to adapt as our population ages. with a higher incidence of people with Singapore’s healthcare financing system co-morbidities2 will require a more is widely regarded to be well-designed connected healthcare system. and financially sustainable. The 3Ms such structural changes will involve (Medisave, MediShield and Medifund) shifts in organisational cultures, the and state subvention ensure that the expectations of healthcare professionals, large majority of Singaporeans have and the ways in which they work with affordable access to good healthcare one another across government. They while maintaining patient choice. Seven will require leaders and policymakers out of ten patients in our restructured in public healthcare to take a systems hospitals do not have to pay anything view of policy reforms: recognising that out-of-pocket. The state’s ownership of what is optimal for the system and its public hospitals also limits cost pressures, intended outcomes may not always be while the emphasis on individual optimal for individual institutions or responsibility and co-payment curbs constituent parts of the system. the tendencies for over-consumption. In addition, the provision of a low-cost, Our healthcare system would become near-universal catastrophic insurance better organised around the needs of scheme (MediShield) provides citizens a certain degree of protection against the the patient and the population, rather risks of catastrophic medical episodes. than the needs of professionals or however, Singapore’s healthcare financing system will come under healthcare organisations. increasing stress. First, increasing longevity and a larger proportion of the magnitude of the inputs into older persons in our population will healthcare may matter less than how inevitably raise national expenditure the resources are allocated and which in healthcare. The state will come specific interventions are implemented. under increasing pressure to expand From a systems perspective, the right its financing of healthcare. Second, question may not be how much healthcare medical advances will push healthcare spending there is, but how healthcare costs up as more conditions become expenditures are allocated over the treatable and more effective drugs and lifetime of citizens. treatments become available. Again,

32 / Population Ageing Requires Adaptive Responses, Not Just Technical Ones there will be greater citizen expectation informational asymmetries are more for the state to provide these new drugs severe). Correspondingly, there should be and treatments on a subsidised basis. more state intervention and subvention Third, citizens will expect seamless, in this sector. This calibrated, “surgical” integrated care. Adapting to these approach to healthcare financing is one long-term, structural challenges will of the strengths of Singapore’s healthcare require Singapore’s healthcare system system, and helps to contain spending. to develop efficient financing schemes that provide citizens greater assurance The allocation of healthcare risks between without health spending spiralling to state and individuals will also have to unsustainable levels. singapore’s healthcare financing adapt as our population ages. philosophy of shared responsibility — reflected in the combination of tax- Nonetheless, the state-market financed subvention to public healthcare balance in healthcare needs to adapt institutions, individual savings, social dynamically to changes in the socio- and private insurance, and patient economic environment. The larger co-payment — is basically sound. increase in healthcare costs relative to Because the severity of market failures median wage growth in recent years in healthcare varies significantly may have led to gaps in the ability across the healthcare system, it makes of low- and middle-income families economic sense to calibrate the extent to afford good healthcare over their of government intervention at different lifetimes. The relatively high share of points in the healthcare continuum. private spending in healthcare is another For instance, in primary care where area of concern. The confluence of informational asymmetries are less these factors may result in inadequate pronounced, it is easier for consumers access for a growing minority that to exercise informed choice. Consumers has insufficient financial provision also have relatively more discretion for long-term care, but who face higher over how much care they consume. In risks of requiring it. At the same time, this sector, it is not unreasonable or an ageing population and the rising inefficient for citizens to bear a larger incidence of chronic conditions that part of the costs and responsibilities. are best managed at the primary and In acute care, on the other hand, bill long-term care sectors may require sizes are much larger, patients have a different state approach to those less control over their consumption of sectors. In this regard, it is worth such care, and they are far more reliant noting that the 2012 Budget extends on the advice of their physicians (i.e. long-term care subsidies to two-thirds

ETHOS / 33 of Singaporean households with elderly consumption decisions. At the same members, or about 80% of elderly in time, changes to incentives in healthcare Singapore. Furthermore, all patients do not just reflect technocratic or cost- in community hospitals will now be benefit calculations; they are also shaped eligible for government subsidies. to a large extent by societal values and the distribution of risks and rising the extent to which the Government costs in long-term care also suggest that can forge a social consensus on more the state should make more aggressive risk- and cost-sharing. use of risk-pooling and social insurance. This means, for instance, expanding Shaping Norms and Values for an and strengthening ElderShield. The Ageing Population introduction of universal health An ageing population will demand a insurance (UHI) models in advanced corresponding shift in social norms and Asian countries like South Korea and values. Much of the emphasis so far has Taiwan has seen out-of-pocket shares in been on what the Government has to do healthcare spending fall significantly. to deal with ageing. However, the state While co-payment also features in cannot mandate or incentivise a change these systems, out-of-pocket amounts in norms and values; the technocratic are capped for insured services, and the options are relatively limited. exposure to the risks of catastrophic that we need a culture and a set of spending is significantly reduced. On norms that would support successful the other hand, UHI systems are more ageing was recently made more salient expensive, and require ever-increasing by the reactions of some Singaporeans to premiums as the population ages, unless the proposed development of eldercare benefits are curtailed or rationed. facilities in their estates. There is some Clearly, there are few easy answers evidence to suggest that these are not as to how Singapore’s healthcare isolated responses but constitute a financing system should be adapted wider pattern.3 and calibrated for an ageing population. Perhaps the most contentious subject While there is certainly a need for for healthcare leaders to engage the public more risk-pooling to finance higher on is death. Not only do people generally health and long-term care costs — avoid thinking about bad outcomes, something which the Government but they may also hold unrealistic has acknowledged — the benefits of expectations of what medicine can do such risk-pooling have to be balanced for people with terminal illnesses. This with longer-term considerations of also needs to be addressed if we are to affordability, and how changed ensure that population ageing does not incentives might alter people’s healthcare impose significantly higher healthcare

34 / Population Ageing Requires Adaptive Responses, Not Just Technical Ones costs without commensurate health be addressed simply by government or quality of life benefits. Addressing spending more or doing more. Similarly, end-of-life issues would require changes to the healthcare financing leaders — not just in healthcare but regime are only viable if they command also in society at large — to engage in the support of broad swathes of society. difficult conversations with citizens: for More than ever, leaders in healthcare will instance, to sometimes make the case have to engage in an ongoing dialogue for letting things take their natural with Singaporeans on the trade-offs course and helping people to die that an ageing population brings, on gently if that is what they want. This the difficult shifts that the government may involve options such as providing is trying to make in our healthcare adequate pain relief and coordinating systems, on the changing roles of the treatment across specialists, allowing state, community and individuals, and patients to be cared for at home where on the limits of medicine. Not only will possible, rather than using technology such a dialogue help to shape citizens’ to keep them alive when there is no expectations of what the state should do hope of improvement. as our population ages, but it will also Fostering new norms for an ageing foster a stronger sense of citizenship society is arguably the hardest adaptive and ownership of the challenges of an challenge facing Singapore. It cannot ageing society.

NOTES

1. Harvard’s Ronald Heifetz makes a useful 2. Co-morbidity is either the presence of one or distinction between two kinds of challenges. more disorders (or diseases) in addition to a Technical challenges can be clearly defined and primary disease or disorder, or the effect of addressed with known solutions and current such additional disorders or diseases. structures or ones developed by technical experts. Adaptive challenges, on the other hand, 3. In recent months, news reports have require significant and sometimes painful shifts highlighted a number of Singaporeans voicing in people’s habits, roles, status, identities, their concerns over elderly care facilities being values and ways of thinking. Adaptive challenges built in their vicinities: for example, some invariably involve conflicts, which have to be residents of Woodlands, over the proposed carefully managed in order to sustain positive construction of an elder daycare centre; some change. Heifetz, R. A., Linksy, M. and Grashow, residents of Toh Yi estate in Bukit Timah, A., The Practice of Adaptive Leadership: Tools over plans to build an eldercare facility; and and Tactics for Changing Your Organization and some residents in Bishan, over plans to build a the World (Harvard Business Press, 2009). nursing home.

ETHOS / 35 Opinion

Public Engagement: The Gap between Rhetoric and Practice

Deeply ingrained habits and structures may have to be shed before a more productive relationship can develop between the state and the public.

by Kenneth Paul Tan is Associate Professor and Vice Dean (Academic Affairs) at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (www.lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/Faculty_Kenneth_Paul_Tan. Kenneth Paul Tan aspx). He can be contacted at [email protected].

The language of public engagement is close it, assuming of course that closing no longer foreign in Singapore’s Public it is what we want to do. Service. Many senior civil servants speak Firstly, the gap may exist for it and do so quite eloquently. ideological reasons. Highfalutin But speaking about public descriptions of one’s practice can be engagement is, of course, quite a a nice way to obscure a rather more different thing from carrying out public prosaic reality. , after all, engagement. And this is where there seems remains a necessary institution to tame to be a gap between rhetoric and practice and harness the chaotic energies of in Singapore. For instance, government society and to rationalise and limit social officials recently met selectively with variety as a means of establishing some concerned members of the public to measure of predictability and stability discuss a controversial decision to build in a complex world. To re-assert control a road through a historically significant over rising democratic pressures while graveyard. When criticised for not maintaining its legitimacy to do so, taking the public’s views seriously, the the Public Service may initiate public Government explained that the meeting engagement exercises that are, in reality, was never meant to be a “consultation”.1 forms of non-participation or tokenism So it is important to ask why such a gap at best. The bottom half of the citizen exists and why it might be difficult to participation ladder, Sherry Arnstein

36 / Public Engagement: The Gap between Rhetoric and Practice famously argued, consists of efforts to that anxious mid-level have manipulate, correct, inform, consult and about being able to reconcile the new- placate citizens, a far cry from the citizen fangled rhetoric with traditional goals power that comes from partnerships, of efficiency, consistency and results in delegated power and citizen control.2 In the practice of policymaking. this sense, public engagement platitudes serve to disguise a basic reality that is The gap between rhetoric and practice resistant to change and power-sharing. may exist because of deeply entrenched secondly, the gap may exist simply because of real practical challenges that public sector mindsets rooted in attend to even the most genuine desire Singapore’s political culture. to engage the public. Here the gap is really between what public service to progress towards genuine public leaders (and preferred public management engagement, it is important at the very gurus) may say their organisation should start to acknowledge and work through be and what the organisation at the its ideological and practical obstacles. rank-and-file level is truly capable of This, I suggest, requires critical being. It could take a long time before understanding of a third factor: the gap the practice catches up with the ideals between rhetoric and practice may exist expressed in the leaders’ idealistic and because of deeply entrenched public sometimes even “revolutionary” rhetoric. sector mindsets rooted in Singapore’s Mid-level and frontline officers, who political culture, unique historical are confronted by a different set of risks development, and the public mythologies and rewards in their daily challenges, that have nourished (or perhaps are likely to be more sensitive to the impoverished) our understanding of them. practical limitations in the day-to-day choices that they make. Genuine public Prospects for Public Engagement engagement is difficult to account for. The As a neo-liberal global city, Singapore risks of failure, traditionally conceived, has been witnessing rising popular are high. And the work that it entails is pressure. Politics has come to the fore much more complicated, troublesome, again, prompting the policy establishment and slow in achieving results (which to pay greater heed to the demands of a an officer needs to show at the end of new and more variegated citizenry, with each reporting year). What will all of political leaders now more sensitive to this contribute to a promising officer’s the real prospect of losing elections. At career prospects? Celebratory talk at the same time, the cultural, ideological, the elite levels of the Civil Service about practical and institutional legacies of inclusiveness could trivialise real concerns the earlier survivalist and development

ETHOS / 37 The evolution of Singapore’s political culture

ingapore’s history, and how that history has work is of a heroically proportioned state, often S been understood, shapes the limitations and couched in hyperbolic language, which pits prospects of public policy as a discipline and as apocalyptic imagery against opposing views, a practice, and has influenced the evolution of presenting all-or-nothing arguments that Singapore’s political culture as a whole. sometimes culminate in claims about slippery slopes to devastating failure. The public is often The Survivalist Stage informed that “Singapore cannot afford to be A number of features of Singapore’s political or do X”, where X is a suggestion from the culture today may be traced to the period public that does not sit well with orthodoxies from Singapore’s independence to the mid- prevalent in the policy establishment. 1970s, when the focus was on coping with an acute sense of national vulnerability and The Developmental Stage building upon the institutional foundations In the 1970s and 1980s, the impressive that the colonial government had left behind. growth rates of the “Asian Tigers”, including To achieve this, the nascent state strengthened Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and and expanded public administration to take over Taiwan, confounded conventional debates and centralise the provision of public goods between proponents of the free market and and services that the relatively more laissez- centralised planning. A common trait among faire colonial administration had generally these East Asian “developmental states” was the left to community leaders, social groups, and role played by a technocratic state bureaucracy even unlawful secret societies. This survivalist in directing economic development towards stage in Singapore’s history, characterised by the achievement of growth and economic a state-led determination to succeed against competitiveness. These were high performance difficult odds, may have habituated a craving for state agencies — such as Singapore’s Economic immediate tangible results and fear of failure Development Board — well-coordinated that both manifest as an aversion to taking risks in responding to opportunities and threats, in public administration and policymaking. enjoying a great degree of insulation from The sometimes coercive muscularity of the interest group and other political pressures, nation-building project in the early decades even as they themselves were embedded in the may have led to a hyper-masculine paternalistic domestic economy as major players. state that tends to privilege growth and As the end of the Cold War approached, the achievement over “soft” options, emotional liberal West began to direct its criticism more input, intangible values, and the spiritual and pointedly at the human rights and democratic aesthetic dimensions of life. The paradigm at deficiencies it perceived of regimes in Asia.

38 / Public Engagement: The Gap between Rhetoric and Practice Singapore mounted an ideological defence by has become more deeply entrenched in the constructing a discourse of Confucian and logic and dynamics of neo-liberal globalisation. then Asian values as an alternative to Western Singapore was liberalising economically (through liberal democracy — an alternative that was the openness of its economy and privatisation also appealing because of the implied connection measures) and culturally (through the relaxation between these supposedly communitarian of socially conservative regulations). Its Public values and high economic performance. A Service was reimagining itself through the Singapore model of governance was gradually prism of private sector values, rewarding its being codified, including principles such as officers according to their performance and meritocracy, pragmatism, and intolerance taking a customer-focused approach to serving of corruption. the people. The more concerted effort by the some features of Singapore’s political culture state since the 1980s to institutionalise official today can also be traced to this developmental channels of communication between government stage, characterised by the primacy of economics and people, and to de-concentrate decision- and economic growth in determining contours making powers to unelected local councils in of policymaking, and the significant role of an enhanced grassroots sector reflected, in the state as a director and major player in the some ways, the state’s attempts to gradually economy. As the Singapore Government’s dissipate pressures for political liberalisation. palpable developmental achievements formed the the irony of Singapore’s success is that material and ideological basis for a hegemonic the direct beneficiaries of that success now one-party dominant state,1 politics became a have higher expectations of their Government dirty word in the “administrative state”.2 Policy and have become empowered by education, implementation is a relatively straightforward affluence, and global exposure to articulate matter in Singapore, rarely confronted by these expectations and present their demands effective political and popular resistance. The to a state that can no longer afford to be as meritocratic talent management policies of insulated from popular pressure as it once was. the Public Service3 have produced not only Nevertheless, it is not necessarily the case that a cadre of highly qualified and self-confident Singapore’s growing middle class is politically officers in the policy establishment, but also liberal in its outlook, since its fortunes are still an elite strata of decision-makers distrustful largely dependent upon the establishment. of the public’s ability to offer any input to the However, economic and social tensions in the policymaking process that is not ill-informed, past decade, brought about in part by rising short-term and self-interested.4 costs of living, accelerated flows of foreign labour, and the threat of widening income gaps The Neo-liberal Global-City Stage and urban pressures on an already densely Since the late 1980s, Singapore as a global city populated city, have bred popular dissatisfaction.

ETHOS / 39 In the 2011 general elections, the PAP’s in the mood for political change. In the new performance was its worst since Singapore’s spaces opened up by social media, ideological independence. The opposition parties were leadership emerged to amplify voices of able to field well-qualified candidates. The discontent, mobilise oppositional thinking, and electorate included younger first-time voters, instil a widespread interest in local politics. many more sceptical of the establishment and

NOTES

1. In Singapore, the People’s Action Party (PAP) was able, decade after decade, to secure a significant majority in parliament; all seats, in fact, from 1968 to 1981. The Westminster legacy helped to concentrate tremendous power in the , to such a degree that the alignment of the political leadership and the public service saw the eclipse of politics by public administration.

2. In the Singapore context, the term was coined by Chan Heng Chee, “Politics in an Administrative State: Where Has the Politics Gone?”, in Trends in Singapore: Proceedings and Background Paper, ed. Chee Meow Seah (Singapore: Singapore University Press, 1975).

3. Most obviously demonstrated in the system of bonded public sector scholarships and high salaries for senior civil servants.

4. See for example, Tan, Kenneth Paul, “Meritocracy and Elitism in a Global City: Ideological Shifts in Singapore”, International Political Science Review, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2008).

stages continue to be a source of tension opportunities for new terms in the evolution of Singapore’s political of engagement? culture. By no means has this been a I have argued elsewhere that simple and linear story of liberalisation. pragmatism as a public service value however, are these recent in Singapore has over the decades lost developments enough to shift the deeply its flexibility, adaptability and open- entrenched public sector mindsets that mindedness. Hardened in turn by have been formed out of historically the survivalist, then developmental, shaped ways of thinking and reasoning? and now even neo-liberal global-city Will a new generation of leaders in stages, Singapore-style pragmatism the public sector, whose horizons of has, ironically, become ideological.3 It experience may differ from the survivalist is now a label that reinforces and then and developmental preoccupations of a obscures certain policymaking rigidities previous generation, lead to fresh and fundamentalisms. Some of these

40 / Public Engagement: The Gap Between Rhetoric and Practice rigidities — such as risk-aversion, for “dynamic governance” that involves hyperbolic reasoning, obsession with “thinking ahead, thinking again, and economic growth, elitism, and scepticism thinking across”.4 But culture is notoriously towards the public — have made it difficult challenging to transform quickly. to close the gap between the rhetoric and practice of public engagement. We need to return to the original spirit Although some officers speak of pragmatism that made Singapore so grandly about its worth, others still find it difficult to envision a practice successful in the first place. of public engagement beyond simply a public relations exercise; or a means There must also be a congruous of appeasing increasingly emboldened incentive structure in place — designed people who are essentially unreasonable not only to reward officers who take and uncivil; or a necessary evil that can public engagement seriously and can lead to the worst excesses of populism demonstrate genuine progress in their if not managed with care. The elitist efforts, but also to signal strongly its proclivities of the public sector, reinforced importance, in ways that go beyond by top-level salaries that are comparable organisational rhetoric. We could to the private sector, are unlikely to commission studies that aim to identify incentivise real public engagement, since appropriate indicators of successful they reinforce the sense that public sector engagement in the Singapore context, leaders, possessing superior intellect, and develop tools for measuring them knowledge and insight, must defend the sensitively. We can adapt for our purposes public interest against irrational and the numerous models available around the dangerous mass populism. The public, world for evaluating public engagement. according to this mindset, needs to be Furthermore, there needs to be adequate educated to think correctly rather than training for public officers, and a repertoire present themselves as equal participants of effective engagement strategies that in policy formulation and implementation. they can adopt, so that they will have the so how can we go beyond rhetoric confidence and competence necessary to and improve our political culture? engage effectively. There are many case A deep cultural change is necessary studies of successful and failed public to disencumber our minds of these engagement exercises from around the rigidities. We need to return to the world that can provide concrete examples original spirit of pragmatism that made and inspiration. Singapore so successful in the first place. With holistic attempts to encourage Neo Boon Siong has, for instance, argued public engagement through cultural

ETHOS / 41 management, incentive structures and based on an expanded mode of public capability building, we can begin to rationality. By necessity, it will be a redesign our public administration in slow process, with mistakes and failures ways that can revitalise a sceptical public along the way: impatience for results and a distrustful strong state — forging and intolerance of failure are two habits a new, complex, perhaps at times open- that will have to be unlearnt. ended, and yet productive relationship

NOTES

1. Goh, Chin Lian, and Sim, Royston, “Bukit 3. Tan, Kenneth Paul, “The Ideology of Brown meeting ‘not a consultation’: Tan Chuan- Pragmatism in Singapore: Neoliberal Jin”, The Straits Times, March 21, 2012. Globalization and Political Authoritarianism”, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 42, 2. Arnstein, Sherry, “A Ladder of Citizen No. 1 (2012). Participation”, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 8, No. 3 (July 1969). 4. Neo, Boon Siong, Dynamic Governance: Embedding Culture, Capabilities and Change in Singapore (Singapore: World Scientific, 2007).

42 / Public Engagement: The Gap Between Rhetoric and Practice What the Private Sector Has Learnt about Public Engagement

Consumer engagement strategies — and failures — in the business world could hold valuable lessons for engagement efforts in the public sector.

by Chng Hak-Peng is Managing Partner at Devaro Partners, a leadership advisory firm that coaches business leaders on strategy development and implementation. He was with the Singapore Civil Service from 1998 Chng Hak-Peng to 2002.

ETHOS / 43 An Era 0f Greater segments, some firms have benefited from Social Engagement reducing the cost of their marketing; Rising public expectations have prompted others have benefited from perfecting Singapore’s leading senior civil servants the set of market research tools that help to call for a civil service that is more companies target the right customers, engaged, more responsive and more both offline and online. inclusive. Several major speeches by current and former senior civil servants What Can Be Done? in the past year have addressed this shift, In light of how quickly social media including an address by the Chairman can change the public’s perception of the Public Service Commission to of an organisation, listening to what its scholars in London (5 November customers need and want is no longer 2011),1 the Inaugural Lecture of the optional. We are moving towards an Chief Secretary Forum in Kuala Lumpur economy where it is critical to engage (30 November 2011) by current Head of the hearts and minds of everyone: from Civil Service Mr Peter Ong,2 and former employees to customers to shareholders. Head of Civil Service Mr Peter Ho’s the experience of the private speech at the Singapore Perspectives sector suggests that any organisation Conference in 2012 (16 January 2012).3 seeking to raise its level of engagement All three called for more engagement and responsiveness needs to do three from the Civil Service, using descriptors things well — consult, deliberate, such as “open and responsive”, “inclusive”, and communicate: and having “more empathy”. • Consult stakeholders constantly Parallels can be drawn with the (not just after a strategy paper has business world, which has undergone a already been drafted); similar inflection in consumer engagement. • Strengthen critical thinking In the mid-1990s, the spotlight focused capabilities within the organisation on how consumers’ values, attitudes and in order to better deliberate diverse behaviours affected their purchasing inputs; decisions, in turn driving revenue and • Communicate by first understanding profit growth for companies. This the potential emotional response of revolution has led to benefits for both stakeholders. consumers and companies: consumers, by and large, have enjoyed a growing For the Civil Service, how might wealth of choices about how, where and this transformation be implemented, what they buy, and how much they pay. and what are some relevant lessons In turn, by targeting specific customer from the business world?

44 / What the Private Sector Has Learnt about Public Engagement Consult Constantly channels, and touching a wider range Great companies and organisations of employees. build an emotional connection with their stakeholders. Some management 1. The frequency of customer interaction theories hold that such emotional has increased. In the 1990s and bonds are best felt when companies 2000s, the management trend of roll out products and services that the day was “customer service” and customers need or want. However, listening to customer feedback. how these bonds are built through Connecting with the customer in frequent customer engagement is less those days typically comprised one well covered in business literature. piece of “feedback” by the customer Nevertheless, three business trends in followed by a single “response” from the area of customer engagement are the company. The commonplace use significant: Consultations and customer of social media and other online inputs are becoming more frequent, modes of connection has moved us coming through a greater diversity of to a more iterative, frequent and

Social engagement: Lessons from the business world

Even leading customer-focused companies have sometimes tripped up in their engagement efforts.

Netflix 2011 article, estimated that Netflix In 2011, well-loved video rental would lose approximately 1 million company Netflix botched an attempt more subscribers than they had to restructure the way customers anticipated from their implemented received its services, resulting in fee increase. a stream of frustrated customer comments on social media, and Bank of America the loss of thousands of members. A backlash from Bank of America Only after this public outcry customers in the form of written did the company decide to drop petitions and demonstrations caused their separated DVD rental site, the company to drop its proposed Qwikster, and maintain one website five dollar a month debit card fee. for customers’ orders. However, One reason: the bank did not test the fee hikes were not abandoned. the debit card fee in the marketplace The Huffington Post, in a 15 September before announcing their new fee plan.

ETHOS / 45 conversational mode of connection to be the primary interface with with customers (although many customers, non-frontline staff are companies are still operating in also increasingly called on to engage the feedback-response mode). customers. Citibank, for example, now trains multiple departments to Great companies and organisations be client-facing, from the relationship build an emotional connection with manager (expected), to the call centre (expected), to the treasury their stakeholders. expert (not usually expected), to the cash management officer (used 2. The methods utilised to extract customer to be unexpected). Going the extra viewpoints and gain insight into their mile to address customer concerns behaviour have become far more across the organisation helps sophisticated. Beyond variations of recover and maintain good customer traditional marketing research tools relationships. Companies see this (i.e. questionnaires, surveys, forums) as critical to their growth strategy that many companies employ to because subsequent touchpoints compile market data, social media is beyond the “frontline” become opening up communication channels opportunities to build a longer and information flows between relationship with, sell more to, or to customers and businesses. This get more feedback from customers. gives businesses a broader and more This interaction allows for a richer immediate spectrum of customer input of ideas or criticism, feeding responses. Some businesses even the improvement process to help observe consumers in their own deliver even better products and homes in order to see and hear services. In short, deep customer first-hand accounts of unmet needs engagement is key to organisational as part of their product development growth and even survival. cycle. The equivalent in the Civil Service might be, for example, Deliberate Well regular first-hand visits to see Training staff in critical thinking is how public policies directly affect a necessary step to ensure that an different income-level households. organisation has the capability to process an increased set of inputs. This 3. Customer touchpoints are moving is not a skill that is explicitly talked deeper into an organisation, and are about or trained for in the workplace; no longer limited to “frontline” staff. yet, it is the most important skill While the service frontline continues in a knowledge-based organisation.

46 / What the Private Sector Has Learnt about Public Engagement In particular, both quantitative and other views could be right). Without qualitative critical thinking skills are these skills, an officer may face a barrage required for decision-making. of suggestions and not be equipped to on the quantitative side, training discern their quality and relevance. Even programmes may explicitly cultivate with critical thinking now incorporated advanced analytical skills: for example, into the university and school curriculum, some professional services companies there is still an advantage to training put entry-level analysts through a workplace-related critical thinking two-week training programme that explicitly. Such training would focus focuses on modelling in Microsoft on workplace-specific scenarios, the Excel, interpretation of basic statistical dimensions of critical thinking that data, the ability to perform basic decision-making processes typically regressions to establish correlation, entail, and the application of critical and the manipulation of large amounts thinking to each agency’s policy or of data in Microsoft Access to extract operational area of purview. useful insights. Companies also use statistics-based Customer touchpoints are moving deeper methods, such as cluster analysis and into an organisation, and are no longer conjoint analysis, to understand customer segments and their preferred trade- limited to “frontline” staff. offs. In conjoint analysis, features of a product are presented to a consumer, Communicate Well who is asked a set of 12 to 30 questions To maintain a feedback loop with the and to make specific trade-offs. stakeholders, there needs to be a very Participants may be asked to rank or conscious effort to communicate back to prioritise their answers. An analysis of stakeholders, which many companies the resulting data provides businesses fail to do adequately. Companies run the with a better understanding of consumer risk of coming across as being defensive views on the relative value of different if they reject a suggestion; or, non- product features. inclusive if they take on a suggestion training in qualitative critical which ends up having negative effects thinking can be achieved through on other stakeholders. classroom training or through the use the Civil Service could consider of the case method. Specific critical erring on the side of more rather thinking skills might include logic, than fewer communications. Regular, evidence and data, while softer skills interactive, open and non-defensive include adopting appropriate attitudes communications help to strengthen of openness and humility (accepting that trust and build confidence. Public

ETHOS / 47 servants perhaps sometimes worry that Conclusion communications open the door to greater In summary, the Civil Service would criticism. It might. In the new social be closer to its goal of increased climate, civil servants would need to engagement if policymakers can answer feel more comfortable in receiving and these three key questions: dealing with feedback, rather than fear negative repercussions or dismiss the 1. Who are the groups of stakeholders public’s ability to provide good ideas. in this policy and how can we best gather their views? Training staff in critical thinking is 2. Which points of view should the a necessary step to ensure that an new policy support or not support, and why? organisation has the capability to process 3. how will we communicate an increased set of inputs. the outcome to each group of stakeholders?

In addition, the style of communication Crucially, while the principles may need to change. Rational logic of consulting, deliberating and and authority used to be sufficient for communicating well will stand most a positive interaction with the public; organisations in good stead as they however, the complexities of policymaking seek to improve the quality of their mean that more nuanced approaches are public engagement, the success and expected. One indicative trend: client- value of such efforts come down to servicing firms hiring team members whether there has been a fundamental with different communication styles. shift in the mindset about how the For example, strategy consulting firms organisation interacts with the public. hire finance, engineering, as well as In the business world, the explosion liberal arts graduates for their client- in customer engagement activity arose facing project teams. from the common understanding one way to strengthen the ability that it is the customers who make the to consult, deliberate, and communicate company. In the public sector, a parallel well is to build a team with a diversity of perspective is that it is the people, and skills. In this regard, the Civil Service not the policies, that make Singapore. seems to be moving in the right direction, This belief, however stated, has to starting with its leadership team.4 underpin the shift to engagement, openness and responsiveness.

48 / What the Private Sector Has Learnt about Public Engagement NOTES

1. SingSem 2011, “What is the New Normal 3. “Panel III Politics: A New Paradigm?”, in for the Public Service?” by Mr Eddie Teo, Report on Singapore Perspectives 2012 Chairman PSC, on Saturday 5 November Singapore Inclusive: Bridging Divides, eds, 2011 in London. Available at: http://www. Chan Hoong Leong and Soon Hock Kang pscscholarships.gov.sg/content/pscsch/default/ (Singapore: Institute of Policy Studies, 2012), outreach/media/speeches/singsem_new_ 8. Available at: http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/ normal.html docs/events/p2012/SP2012_report.pdf

2. Inaugural Lecture, Chief Secretary Forum 4. For instance, at the leadership level: ten years (Kuala Lumpur), “Building an Adaptive ago, more than 50% of permanent secretaries Service” by Mr Peter Ong, Head, Civil Service, (as of January 2002) studied Engineering or Republic of Singapore, 30 November 2011. Science as their undergraduate major. As of Available at: http://app.psd.gov.sg/data/ January 2012, 55% of permanent secretaries HCS%20Peter%20Ong%20-%20Chief%20 have an arts or social science background, Secretary%20Forum_30%20Nov.pdf including one with a degree in English. Based on a manual count from publicly available information.

ETHOS / 49 Opinion

Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore

An increasingly complex and diverse decision-making ecology calls for more productive relations between the state and civil society.

By Dr Vernie Oliveiro is Researcher at the Centre for Governance and Leadership at the Civil Service College. Her research interests are in globalisation, civil society, gender, and the uses of history in public affairs. In Vernie Oliveiro the interest of full disclosure, she is also a volunteer and member of the Association of Women for Action and Research (AWARE). She received a PhD in International History from Harvard University in 2010.

Following the worldwide failure of singapore society has become both “big government” (welfarism) and much more cosmopolitan as a result of “market fundamentalism” (neoliberalism), globalisation. The number of highly- commentators across the ideological skilled Singaporeans living abroad spectrum have identified “society” increased from 36,000 in 1990 to as the answer to the challenges of 143,000 in 2006.5 The experiences of globalisation.1 Studies of social capital these Singaporeans, the presence of have grown in popularity — as has the foreign nationals as both subjects of work of Robert Putnam, who posits and actors in local civil society, and a positive relationship between good access to global media, all contribute governance, economic prosperity, and to Singaporeans framing issues not strong and engaged civil society.2 Yet just in local but also in transnational globalisation, which has challenged terms.6 Non-governmental organisations faith in the state and the market, also (NGOs) are increasingly forming links challenges the cohesion of society. It with others abroad, and are playing an does so not only by widening income active role across the region and even inequalities,3 but also by introducing the world.7 unprecedented levels of cultural and the challenge of building a cohesive ideological diversity into a populace.4 and pluralist polity comprising people

50 / Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore of different formative experiences, open contestation and the apparent globalised reference points, and diverse “disorder” associated with civil society. rationalities calls for a mutually constructive Governance by consensus certainly has relationship between government and civil its merits, but such consensus must society. Singapore has a well elaborated not only emerge but appear to emerge model of governance to manage racial from the reconciliation rather than and religious diversity. Civil society’s the curtailment of contestation. Public perception of government, however, officers know that the best solutions can seem to be marked by a concern for emerge from sensing the disparate discerning the “out of bounds” markers perspectives, interests and needs of a for non-state actors such as NGOs. diverse society.9 Yet, there continues This presupposes a mutually exclusive to be a widespread perception that relationship between government and government is wary of civil society, civil society, and leads the former to and that it muffles dissent or dismisses believe that the government should critics.10 The government could more simply “get out of the way”. This is not clearly signal its willingness to engage only unhelpful but dangerous, since with controversial or contrarian ideas “more” civil society may very well yield in order to encourage NGOs’ trust in illiberal and prejudicial outcomes. government. Such trust encourages More importantly, this view of NGOs to approach public agencies government-civil society relations in a spirit of cooperation rather ignores the fact that government can than defensiveness. play a role in shaping a civil society that will contribute positively towards A mutually exclusive relationship between pluralist ends. Republican theories of government and civil society is not only civil society ascribe to government the role of establishing the rules and values unhelpful but dangerous. within which civil society should function. Above all, the state is responsible for to facilitate this, government fostering patriotic individuals who could provide more platforms where partake equally of the liberties and different interests can meet each responsibilities of citizenship.8 other, and thus design conversations the question, then, for Singapore, that forge consensus. Public engagement is how government can encourage and already occurs on many policy issues, and constructively engage with the NGO this has encouraged a more cooperative sector. To begin, government needs relationship between all involved. to become more comfortable with However, civil society-government

ETHOS / 51 State and Civil Society: A symbiotic relationship

anish political theorist Per Mouritsen One author Mouritsen discusses at length D has argued that Scandinavian countries is none other than Alexis de Tocqueville who tend to enjoy a “symbiotic complementarity wrote, almost two centuries ago, that “civil between state and civil society”.1 Illustrating associations therefore facilitate political associations; the crucial role of government in the formation but, on the other hand, political associations of civil society, he contrasts the civil society of singularly develop and perfect civil associations”.3 the Weimar Republic that produced the Nazi De Tocqueville argued that it was through state, with the civil society that underpins the participation in the work of government that post-Communist Eastern European states. individuals learn how to live and work with each Mouritsen argues: other. “Political associations,” De Tocqueville argued, “can therefore be considered great There must be reasonable and operative schools, free of charge, where all citizens come laws before people will learn to respect them, to learn the general theory of associations”.4 working institutions before national solidarity, and rights before anyone would wish to be a citizen. The first step towards civil society is a civil state — difficult as this is.2

NOTES

1. Mouritsen, Per, “What’s the Civil in Civil Society? Robert Putnam, Italy and the Republican Tradition”, Political Studies 51 (2003): 657.

2. See Endnote 1, p. 658.

3. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), Vol. 2, Part 2, Chapter 7, p. 496.

4. See Endnote 3, p. 498.

52 / Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore relations in Singapore are still often on public agencies, it has the benefit of framed in a petitionary framework, promoting greater public understanding wherein advocates approach public of the constraints underlying policy agencies without having to face and options and implementation. consider the perspectives of others who Finally, government should may have opposing views. Moreover, continue to uphold the plural and NGOs often complain about being talked secular nature of the public sphere. to rather than talked with. Facilitating Prime Minister stated dialogue between diverse groups will in 2009 that the Government “hold[s] enable them to constructively engage the ring so that all groups can practise with issues in fuller knowledge of the their faiths freely without colliding with choices and trade-offs involved. The one another in Singapore”.15 Indeed, ensuing familiarity can also encourage the Government has played this role in public officers and activists to view each several public controversies in recent other not as institutions or interests years.16 While activists in Singapore civil but reasonable people of goodwill who society may be motivated by religious can validly hold divergent views on convictions, the state’s role as referee important questions.11 helps ensure that those advocating In the same vein, government their cause in a pluralistic society must should foster greater transparency of communicate their ideas in terms that information. Beyond the often-stated non-coreligionists can engage with. benefit that it fosters trust between the corollary to a plural and secular government and citizens,12 transparency public sphere is the non-politicisation of information also empowers citizens of race and religion. That race and to engage in issues more critically, religion inform but do not determine responsibly, and effectively.13 For policy preferences was underlined in example, NGOs and volunteer welfare the Government’s response to calls organisations (VWOs) have asked by four local Muslim groups in 2002 for more and better information on for Singapore to oppose a war on Iraq. domestic violence to help them design Member of Parliament Zainudin Nordin programmes and assess their impact.14 rejected the groups’ depiction of the The importance of transparency in war as a religious issue, while Yaacob fostering critical citizen engagement Ibrahim, the Minister in charge of is all the more crucial in a time when Muslim Affairs, insisted that Muslims social and other online media constrain would not respond monolithically to government’s ability to shape the public political events.17 agenda. While this places a burden of the role that civil society can play data collection and communications in fostering constructive engagement

ETHOS / 53 working hand in hand

here have been many examples of successful The Nature Society’s lobbying played a crucial T engagement between public agencies and role in the creation of the Sungei Buloh and NGOs on social issues. In 2006, advocacy by Chek Jawa nature reserves as well as the Green the Animal Concerns Research and Education Corridor along the former Keretapi Tanah Society (ACRES) led to the reform of the Melayu railway tracks. The Government is Endangered Species (Import and Export) Act.1 currently working together with the Singapore In 2011, AWARE’s activism led the Government Heritage Society to document graves located to repeal Section 157 (d) of the Penal Code.2 at Bukit Brown cemetery.3

ACRES Reform of Endangered Species (Import and Export) Act t aware Repeal Section 157 (d) of the Penal Code

Creation of the Sungei Buloh and Chek Jawa nature reserves

governmen the nature as well as the Green Corridor along the former Keretapi Tanah Melayu society railway tracks

singapore Document graves located at Bukit Brown cemetery heritage society

NOTES

1. See ACRES – Our Achievements, http://www.acres.org.sg/aboutacres/ourachievements.html (accessed July 6, 2012).

2. “MinLaw to Stop Sexual History Being Used Against Rape Victims”, The Straits Times, November 25, 2011.

3. “More Hands on Deck for Bukit Brown”, The Straits Times, December 11, 2011.

54 / Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore with government is implied in the above engagement and collaboration, activists recommendations. First and foremost, need to offer constructive criticism civil society should recognise that rather than complaints. government is a necessary partner In conjunction with the above, it is in the formation of a pluralistic important to emphasise that increased public sphere that complements understanding of the work of government particularistic interests and the public will better equip activists to realise their good. There are certainly historically goals. L. David Brown and Jonathan Fox, valid reasons for Singapore civil society writing about transnational activism vis- to be wary of government. However, a à-vis the World Bank, advise NGOs not cautionary note needs to be taken from to think of “large actors as monolithic the experience of Eastern Europe, where institutions that present united fronts a reflexive suspicion of government to external challenges”. Instead, they born out of years of authoritarian rule argue, activists should recognise that left societies vulnerable to the market such institutions “include staff with power of capital in the post-communist a wide range of political and social years. Activists need to be careful about perspectives” who can yield “advice, adopting neoliberal assumptions about information and support”.19 This does the iniquity of regulation, and approach not mean that activists should play one government with suggestions on how agency against another. Rather, working governance can be improved rather with public agencies can help NGOs to than removed. better align their particular goals with second, civil society needs to state ones and develop strategies to approach government in good faith better communicate their perspectives and with patience and understanding. to policymakers. Just as activists want to be spoken with rather than to, public officials want to be It remains the prerogative of elected conversed with rather than harangued. officials to choose among policy options Government’s effort to understand civil society needs to be mirrored by better and take responsibility for any resulting comprehension on the part of activists trade-offs. of the goals and constraints within which public agencies work. Activists Finally, civil society should should therefore acknowledge multiple acknowledge the agency and autonomy versions of successful advocacy, and it enjoys in the public sphere today. continue to engage with government This should enhance its confidence and even if they fail to achieve everything willingness to approach government they seek.18 If and when problems arise in as a partner rather than a supplicant.

ETHOS / 55 Over a decade ago, Simon Tay exhorted and more on the realised and potential civil society to believe, against the agency of civil society. There is also “veto of power” enjoyed and exercised room for further research into how by government, that “citizens [could] government can systematically and organise civil society on their own successfully engage NGOs in order terms”.20 He pointed to the flourishing to better design and implement public of Eastern European civil society policy. Activists should respect the under communist rule to illustrate fact that it remains the prerogative of the possibilities in this imagination. elected officials to choose among policy The political, social, and technological options and take responsibility for any conditions of today’s Singapore make Tay’s resulting trade-offs. In making those exhortation a reality to be recognised. trade-offs, however, the Government The Lien Foundation, for example, should systematically and transparently advocates and pursues improvements engage with Singapore’s burgeoning in the care of the terminally ill and civil society to make better sense of young children with developmental a decision-making ecology that is needs — areas that are under-served. increasingly critical and complex. Both Similarly, AWARE’s shadow reports to sides need to engage with each other in the United Nations Committee on the a fashion that both respects diversity Convention on the Elimination of All and forges cohesion. This can only Forms of Discrimination against Women happen if both government and civil (CEDAW) challenge the Government society see each other not as antagonists to do more to combat gender-based and competitors in the public sphere, stereotyping in policy. but rather as equally fertile sources of scholarship and commentary on ideas and passion for making Singapore state-civil society relations in Singapore a better home for all. needs to train its lenses less on the state

NOTES

1. Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis point out 2. Putnam, Robert, Making Democracy Work: that the idea of society is attractive to the left Civic Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton, because of its emphasis on collective action NJ; Princeton University Press, 1993); and and to the right because it stresses non- Putnam, Robert, Bowling Alone: The Collapse governmental solutions to market failure. See and Revival of American Community (New York: Bowles, Samuel, and Gintis, Herbert, “Social Simon & Schuster, 2000). Capital and Community Governance”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 112, No. 483, Features 3. This issue has received much attention in (November 2002): F419–F436. Singapore, with the national budget for 2012 emphasising social transfers and other forms of aid for disadvantaged Singaporeans.

56 / Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore 4. Arjun Appadurai argues that migration and 10. For some recent critical views of the Singapore “electronic media” have allowed people to Government’s engagement with civil society, imagine identities beyond “the cordon sanitaire see Chong, Terence, “Civil Society in of local and national media effects”, thereby Singapore: Popular Discourses and Concepts”, challenging “the continued salience of the Sojourn, 20, No. 2 (2005): 273–301; nation-state as the key arbiter of important Ho, Khai Leong, Shared Responsibilities, social changes.” See Appadurai, Arjun, Unshared Power: The Politics of Policy- Modernity at Large: Cultural Dimensions of of Making in Singapore (Singapore: Eastern Globalisation (Minneapolis, Minn.: University of Universities Press, 2003), 332–368; Lee, Minnesota Press, 1996), 4. Terence, “Gestural Politics: Civil Society in “New” Singapore”, Sojourn 20, No. 2 (2005): 5. Porter, Michael, Neo, Boon Siong, and Ketels, 132–154; and Lyons, Lenore, “Internalised Christian, Remaking Singapore (Boston: Boundaries: AWARE’s Place in Singapore’s Harvard Business Publishing, 2009). Emerging Civil Society”, in Paths Not Taken: Political Pluralism in Post-War Singapore, eds, 6. Local NGO Transient Workers Count Too Michael D. Barr and Carl A. Trocki (Singapore: (TWC2) has called upon the Government to NUS Press, 2008), 248–263. Highly sign international conventions on migrant respected New York Times columnist Maureen workers and domestic workers. Another NGO, Dowd referred to Singapore as a “polished, Maruah, has been active in promoting an deeply authoritarian police state”. See Dowd, ASEAN Declaration of Human Rights. Maureen, “From Gallipoli to Singapore”, The New York Times, July 19, 2011. 7. For a study of the international connections among activists for migrant workers, see 11. See Maniam, Aaron, “A New Tribe for New Lenore Lyons, “Transcending the Border: Geographies: Reasonable People of Goodwill”, Transnational Imperatives in Singapore’s New Geography, February 8, 2011. Migrant Worker Rights Movement”, Critical Asian Studies 41, No. 1 (2009): 89–112. 12. See Florini, Ann, “Behind Closed Doors: Additionally, several groups took part in Governmental Transparency Gives Way to the United Nations’ review of Singapore’s Secrecy”, Harvard International Review (Spring compliance with the Convention Eliminating 2004): 18–21; and “Introduction: The Battle All Forms of Discrimination Against Women Over Transparency”, in The Right to Know: in 2011. Transparency for an Open World, ed. Ann Florini (New York: Columbia University Press, 8. Mouritsen, Per, “What’s the Civil in Civil 2007), 1–16. Society? Robert Putnam, Italy and the Republican Tradition”, Political Studies 51 13. Cherian George has argued that “limited (2003): 650–668. access to official information constrains the volume and quality of citizen participation”. 9. For further information on how dissent, debate, See George, Cherian, “Control-Shift: The and diversity yield the most creative ideas and Internet and Political Change in Singapore” in effective solutions, see Snowden, David J., Management of Success: Singapore Revisited, and Boone, Mary E., “A Leader’s Framework ed. Terence Chong (Singapore: ISEAS, 2010), for Decision Making”, Harvard Business 266. Review, November 2007; and Lehrer, Jonah, “Groupthink: The Brainstorming Myth”, The 14. The Society Against Family Violence New Yorker, January 30, 2012. commissioned an International Violence Against Women Survey in 2010 because of a lack of consistent and comprehensive data on the problem in Singapore. See also Association for Women Action and Research, “General Recommendation 19: Violence Against Women”, CEDAW Shadow Report, May 2011, pp. 153–154.

ETHOS / 57 15. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, National 18. An instructive example can be seen in how Day Rally Speech 2009, 16 August women’s groups have continued to work with 2009, http://www.pmo.gov.sg/content/ the Government to improve the management pmosite/mediacentre/speechesninterviews/ of domestic violence even though the 1997 primeminister/2009/August/national_day_ amendments to the Women’s Charter did not rallyspeech2009part3racialreligiousharmony. deliver everything they asked for. At the same html time, public agencies have demonstrated commitment to assisting individuals not 16. Following a leadership tussle in a local NGO covered by the amendments by using existing when then Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan laws and mechanisms to protect victims as Seng reiterated that “keeping religion and best as they can. politics separate is a key rule of political engagement” in Singapore. See “Exercise 19. Brown. David L., and Fox, Jonathan, Restraint, Mutual Respect, Tolerance”, “Transnational Civil Society Coalitions and the The Straits Times, May 15, 2009, and Azhar World Bank: Lessons from Project and Policy Ghani and Gillian Koh, “Not Quite Shutting Up Influence Campaigns”, The Hauser Centre and Sitting Down: The Singapore Government’s for Nonprofit Organisations and The Kennedy Role in the AWARE Saga” in The AWARE Saga: School of Government, Harvard University, Civil Society and Public Morality in Singapore, Working Paper No. 3 (1999), p. 12. ed. Terence Chong (Singapore: NUS Press, 2011), 42. 20. Tay, Simon S.C., “Towards a Singaporean Civil Society”, Southeast Asian Affairs (1998):253. 17. “Attack on Iraq Would Be a ‘Security Issue’”, The Straits Times, September 5, 2002.

58 / Fostering Mutually Constructive Engagement in a Globalised Singapore Opinion

Public Diplomacy: An Emerging New Normal in Foreign Policy

States must now learn to shape the context in which their policies are perceived by foreign publics in order to achieve national goals.

by Premarani Somasundram is Principal Researcher at the Centre for Governance and Leadership, Civil Service College. She spent a good part of her career with the Strategic Assessments Directorate of the Premarani Ministry of Defence, which allowed her the opportunity to serve as counsellor with the Singapore embassy Somasundram in Washington, DC, from end 1999 to early 2003. The views expressed in the article are her own.

A Ferrari, a Fatal Collision and their country had pushed up living costs its Fallout and strained public services. On 17 May 2012, The Straits Times carried the Chinese embassy’s effort to a letter from the Chinese embassy in mollify Singaporeans and urge its Singapore expressing regret over a nationals in Singapore to avoid behaviour fatal crash in the Republic involving a that offends citizens of their host country Ferrari, driven by a resident from China, should come as no surprise. We now live and a taxi, driven by a Singaporean. in an age characterised by the rise of The letter urged Chinese nationals in civil society and growing empowerment Singapore to “respect life, value the of just about anyone with an Internet- safety of themselves and others, abide by enabled camera phone. Coupled with its [Singapore’s] laws and regulations, the easy movement of goods, services, and live responsibly and gracefully”.1 people, capital and information across It was evidently a response to the borders, the emerging “new normal” outrage at the accident expressed by in international relations is that many Singaporeans, in whose eyes the governments and inter-governmental driver of the Ferrari was the epitome organisations such as the United Nations of a class of affluent expatriates from (UN) are no longer the sole determinants China and elsewhere, whose influx into of international policies and sole

ETHOS / 59 practitioners of diplomacy. Gone are the power are often inadequate to bring days when a huddle in private between, about desired foreign policy outcomes; say, the prime minister of Singapore an equally important national asset and the president of Indonesia was all is a positive reputation or soft power. that it took to sort out bilateral issues; China is among several players now any government that seeks to improve actively seeking to develop soft power. ties with a foreign government or to Through its international broadcasts secure an agreement with it must also and some 350 “Confucius Institutes” set reach out to the public of that country. up across the world to teach Chinese and showcase Chinese culture, Beijing is Goodwill Hunting attempting to shape how it is perceived Efforts to explain policies and actions abroad and allay fears that a rising to, and influence, foreign publics, as China is a threat. China has evidently opposed to foreign governments, are begun to realise that as goods, services, hardly new in international relations. capital, people and information traverse “Public diplomacy”, the term applied borders easily in a globalised world, to this practice, has historically been its nationals at home or abroad also considered an euphemism for propaganda. serve as its flag bearers — hence, It was most closely associated with the efforts of the Chinese embassy America’s extensive use of the former in Singapore aim not only to appease US Information Agency (now absorbed angry Singaporeans but also to urge into the US State Department) and the Chinese nationals in Singapore not to Voice of America radio service in Cold undermine their country’s reputation. War-era efforts to project American Public diplomacy does not render culture and values to weaken the redundant the kind of quiet negotiations Communist bloc. between governments that must take today, public diplomacy is place in camera, such as the Oslo peace increasingly seen as a critical tool for process or free trade negotiations. developing what Joseph Nye calls “soft However, the agreements concluded power” — the ability to co-opt others through such confidential government- through the attractiveness of one’s to-government transactions may “institutions, ideas, values, culture and languish on paper if the governments the perceived legitimacy of policies”.2 in question have weak standings with Countries around the world have each other’s publics and fail to convince recognised, especially since the September the latter of their good intentions. 11 attacks, that military and economic

60 / Public Diplomacy: An Emerging New Normal in Foreign Policy Forms of Public Diplomacy

cholars note that public diplomacy is practised head honcho, liked to call “a diplomacy of S in several inter-connected dimensions. deeds”,1 involving, among other things, development assistance and post-disaster 1. Information Management humanitarian relief efforts. Day-to-day government communications to explain policies and actions to overseas 3. Cultural Diplomacy audiences as well as crisis communications. Fostering mutual understanding through the exchange of ideas, information, values, 2. Strategic Communication traditions and beliefs. Such exchanges the orchestration of a series of symbolic take place through artistic, sports, science actions and events that capture the and technology, scholarly and other imagination and evoke emotions. The people-to-people exchange platforms. aim is to subtly reinforce core messages Cultural diplomacy includes scholarship about one’s country and influence how it and fellowship programmes, which allow is broadly perceived abroad. Unlike daily foreigners extended direct exposure to communications, the impact of strategic one’s country. communications can only be realised in the long term. One form of public diplomacy that 4. Relationship-building could have huge strategic communications this takes place across any of the above impact is what Karen Hughes, former US dimensions and involves personal contact President George Bush’s public diplomacy and two-way communications to build trust.

NOTE

1. Karen Hughes, “The Diplomacy of Deeds”, in The Washington Times, December 17, 2006.

ETHOS / 61 Beyond Branding to Woo Tourists, developing ones, have begun adopting Talent and Capital corporate branding techniques to market While some of the tools of public their brand identities and establish some diplomacy are in pervasive use today, form of “product differentiation” from there is no consensus or clarity on their competitors. what the specific objectives of public however, while nation-branding diplomacy are, apart from the broad in this narrow sense, involving catchy one of seeking to shape perceptions and taglines and dazzling skylines, may help influence foreign audiences. Neither a country lure investments, tourists and is there clarity on how best to deploy talent, and even boost the appeal of its these tools. Consequently, there is much goods and services to consumers abroad, hand-wringing about the efficacy of public diplomacy serves broader national public diplomacy as a strategy. interests. For small countries, concerted and sustained public diplomacy efforts A good national brand image could conceivably make some difference notwithstanding, countries may still come in their ability to maintain secure borders, ensure air and maritime access, up against political hurdles in advancing guarantee food and energy supplies and their commercial interests abroad. achieve a whole host of critical national objectives other than commercial success. Indeed, a good national brand image the rise of “nation-branding” as notwithstanding, countries may still a discipline over the past decade or come up against political hurdles in so has led to public diplomacy being advancing their commercial interests conflated with commercially-oriented abroad, given occasional backlashes brand-building exercises. By default against globalisation in the wake of or design, countries as well as cities unemployment, stagnant wages and acquire distinct brand identities based widening income disparities, especially on their key attributes and the values in the developed and emerging markets. that shape their institutions and policies. Thus, apart from targeting business For instance, Germany has acquired a constituencies and talented professionals reputation for engineering precision seeking to relocate, public diplomacy and reliability while Italy for style involves developing broader messages and high fashion. As the scramble for that will resonate with a wider cross- tourist dollars, investments, talent and section of foreign publics. These include markets intensifies across the world, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) many countries and cities, especially representing special interests or causes,

62 / Public Diplomacy: An Emerging New Normal in Foreign Policy such as migrant worker rights, human Good public diplomacy, therefore, rights and environmental protection, begins with a mindset change that as well as journalists, academics and regards public diplomacy as a strategic other opinion-multipliers. function which has to be mainstreamed and integrated with traditional It’s the Policy, Stupid diplomacy. Public diplomacy also entails While many governments fork out overcoming cognitive biases that blind massive sums on public relations a country to elements of its policies and campaigns to help re-brand their behaviour that rile others, a thorough countries, deploy an army of information assessment of what can realistically specialists to explain policies, and be done to undo underlying negative engage in some form of relationship- images, ongoing anticipation of how building efforts, including providing foreign publics might respond to specific development assistance, they generally policies, and if necessary tweaking, or still tend to treat public diplomacy as a even changing, policy to mitigate any communication exercise peripheral to potential negative fallout. policy — in Nye’s words as “a bandage that can be applied after damage to a A single policy misstep could be amplified country’s standing has been done by many times over in today’s environment other instruments”.3 But, as the US discovered in the wake of its response and potentially undo a painstakingly-built to September 11, no amount of skilful positive image. communication can airbrush away the effects of bad policy; ultimately, good public diplomacy is about good policy. Public diplomacy cannot be simon Anholt, who gave us the term approached in a one-size-fits-all manner; “nation-branding”, notes that publics unique circumstances in target countries generally tend to hold on rigidly to and theatres, particularly the differences a rather simplistic view of a foreign in how a country is perceived in different country once it is formed.4 He cautions parts of the world, call for country-specific that a single good policy or deed may strategies where specific sub-messages not yield a lasting positive perception consonant with the overarching theme if the underlying image is weak or are emphasised and appropriate tools poor. Conversely, it must be added, a deployed. Most countries embarking single policy misstep could be amplified on public diplomacy programmes many times over in today’s new media tend to tackle the low-hanging fruit environment and could potentially undo of improving visibility in places where a painstakingly-built positive image. visibility is lacking, while sidestepping

ETHOS / 63 the more intractable task of attempting is the ultimate goal of public diplomacy. to redeem weak reputations in places This is why Nye advocates shifting that count most. Furthermore, in their towards what he calls “smart public relationship-building activities, they diplomacy”, which involves tapping into tend to preach to the converted, that the credibility inherent in emerging is, to seek out those who already have cross-border, peer-to-peer civil society positive impressions of their country, networks involving NGOs, academics, and to ignore the peskier, but oftentimes journalists, and the like.5 Mark Leonard, more influential, elements whose views another proponent of this approach, may be at variance with their own. calls it “stealth diplomacy”.6 Public diplomacy is not about getting there are compelling reasons for others to accept a country’s policies; working with non-state entities in pursuing it is more about using open, two-way public diplomacy. Governments often communication to create a foundation do not have the resources to reach the of trust against which foreign audiences large numbers of foreign constituencies may understand a country’s policies and they must cultivate beyond their foreign actions, even if they do not necessarily counterparts. More significantly, as accept them in toto. goods, services, people and information cross borders freely today, businesses, Credibility is an essential element in the NGOs, academics, and even ordinary building of trust, which is the ultimate citizens and diasporas unwittingly or otherwise serve as flag-bearers abroad. goal of public diplomacy. Their business decisions abroad, their behaviour abroad as tourists or students, “Smart Public Diplomacy” their blogs, Tweets, and home-made While public diplomacy is a strategic YouTube videos all contribute to the function and public diplomacy shaping of their country’s perception consciousness must permeate the abroad, whether governments like it or policy process, the heavy hand of the not. Governments, therefore, need to state in the implementation of public work with these players to ensure that, at diplomacy plans may not be the best the least, their decisions and behaviour way forward. For in the information do not undermine national reputations. age, publics are better informed and Inevitably, working with non-state increasingly cynical about statements entities requires ceding some control and deeds emanating from government over messaging, which governments institutions. Credibility is an essential may find hard to countenance, especially element in the building of trust, which where NGOs with socio-political causes

64 / Public Diplomacy: An Emerging New Normal in Foreign Policy are concerned. Nye points out that not immediately perceptible; neither such “decentralisation and diminished is it easy to measure as opinions can control may be central to the creation change for any number of reasons and of soft power” as long as deviations not just because of the efficacy of public from the government line are not too diplomacy programmes. Therefore, significant.7 In any event, viewing NGOs taking a cost-benefit approach to public as stakeholders and engaging them and diplomacy could render it ineffective. enlisting their support is a surer way of making them behave responsibly than Working with non-state entities requires isolating them. ceding some control over messaging, Singapore’s Public which governments may find hard Diplomacy Challenges to countenance. Over the past two decades and especially in the past five years, Singapore has on the other hand, public policy in been undertaking various elements of Singapore today is no longer insulated public diplomacy in addition to nation- from public pressures, making it harder branding. These include engaging in “a to justify expenditure on public diplomacy diplomacy of deeds”, such as the post- programmes whose outcomes are not 2004 tsunami humanitarian aid and immediately perceptible.8 With the reconstruction support for Indonesia, distinction between domestic and foreign efforts to reach out to foreign opinion policy having blurred, Singaporeans can multipliers, diaspora outreach efforts be expected to become more vocal on and even encouraging some form of issues that have international dimensions. peer-to-peer networks involving think More critically, the nation-branding tanks and journalists. What seems exercise to project Singapore as a cool still lacking, however, is a conscious and creative city, largely with a view to attempt to integrate public diplomacy wooing foreign businesses and talents, with the policy function and to take is clearly not resonating with many a more focused approach to public citizens. Singapore’s most daunting diplomacy efforts. public diplomacy challenge will be to Building trust with foreign publics ensure that the simmering resentment takes a long time and a huge commitment of “foreign talent”, manifested in the of resources, especially when stereotypes harsh invectives hurled at the Chinese and deep-seated negative opinions need national who drove the Ferrari, does not to be changed or at least tempered. The descend into xenophobia, which could effectiveness of public diplomacy is also affect Singapore’s reputation abroad and

ETHOS / 65 Building a reputation in our busy modern world is like trying to fill a bathtub with the plug pulled out: as soon as each symbolic action is completed, its effect on public attention begins to decay, and unless it is swiftly followed by further and equally remarkable proof of the kind of country that produces it, that country’s reputation will stand still or move backwards, and the bathtub will never fill.

- Nation-branding guru Simon Anholt, Place Branding & Public Diplomacy, Volume 4, Issue 1, 2008

efforts to build political goodwill with hinge on first securing broad public foreign publics. In sum, the success of consensus at home. a public diplomacy strategy will also

NOTES

1. Forum page, The Straits Times, May 17, 2012. 6. Leonard, Mark (with Stead, Catherine and Smewing, Conrad), “Public Diplomacy”, 2. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., The Future of Power (New The Foreign Policy Centre (2002): 54. York: Public Affairs, Perseus Books Group, 2011), 20. 7. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., “The Pros and Cons of Citizen Diplomacy”, International Herald 3. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., “The New Public Tribune, October 5, 2010. Diplomacy”, Project Syndicate, February 10, 2010. 8. The inaugural Youth Olympic Games hosted by Singapore is a case in point, with Singaporeans 4. Anholt, Simon, “Public Diplomacy and Place questioning the sizeable expenditure overrun Branding: Where’s the Link?”, Place Branding, and perceived lack of returns. Editorial (2006).

5. Nye, Joseph S. Jr., ”Soft Power and Public Diplomacy in the 21st Century”, British Council Parliamentary Lecture, January 20, 2010.

66 / Public Diplomacy: An Emerging New Normal in Foreign Policy BOOK REVIEW

Policymaking for Real People

An understanding of how human biases affect economic decision-making can significantly improve the design of public policy. A new book authored by Singapore’s policymakers explains.

BOOK DETAILS Behavioural Economics and Policy Design: Examples from Singapore Edited by Donald Low World Scientific Publishing Singapore (October 2011); 216 pp.; S$37.00

REVIEWED BY Tan Yeling is a PhD candidate at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. She has worked in the government, academic and NGO sectors. Yeling holds an MPA in International TAN YELING Development from Harvard and a BA in International Relations and Economics (Honors, Distinction) from Stanford University. She is co-author (with Ann Florini and Lai Hairong) of China Experiments: From Local Innovations to National Reform (Brookings Institution Press, 2012), and co-editor (with Kelley Lee and Tikki Pang) of Asia’s Role in Governing Global Health (Routledge, 2012, forthcoming).

The key message of Behavioural the book — distinctive in that it is Economics and Policy Design is both written by policymakers drawing explicitly clear and important. Collectively, the on economic theory — demonstrates authors emphasise that policymaking how an unthinking application of the can be substantially improved by taking “right” tools according to conventional into account aspects of individual economic theory might lead instead to behaviour which deviate systematically suboptimal outcomes. The cases tackled from standard economic assumptions of in the various chapters cover a broad rational choice and utility maximisation. range of issues, from healthcare and These deviations range from universal traffic control to global problems such human limitations, such as bounded as climate change. rationality and hyperbolic discounting, In some of the chapters, the authors to behaviour more explicitly shaped by discuss “status quo bias” — the tendency social forces, such as norms of justice for people to prefer sticking to the and values of morality. status quo even if they are rationally

ETHOS / 67 aware that a change might suit their constrained decisions in environments of preferences or serve them better. This uncertainty, and having to compromise bias leads to large gaps between human across competing interests, the book preferences, seemingly optimal solutions, manages to bridge the practicalities and actual behaviour. In the case of of their profession and the theoretical organ donation, for example, the authors models of behavioural economics. The note that while polling in Canada found authors have done a fine job of explaining that 85% of society favoured being an complex economic concepts in clear organ donor, the actual sign-up rate and plain prose; in the process, they was 17%. In Singapore and some other offer the reader rich insights into how countries, the policy is to presume that Singapore’s policy thinking and practice consent to be a donor has been given, have evolved over the years. The volume unless people explicitly opt out. In such joins a growing body of literature and cases, the share of donors is usually discourse about how decision-making above 80%. can be improved by taking behavioural considerations into account.1 An unthinking application of the Behavioural Economics and Policy “right” tools according to conventional Design has two broad aims. The first is to draw out past examples of how economic theory might lead instead to policymaking can be enhanced by suboptimal outcomes. balancing efficiency and behavioural concerns. The second is to foster A chapter on fiscal policy details greater discussion and investigation how policymakers were able to improve into how insights from behavioural the design of discretionary transfer economics can strengthen policy design policies by taking into account a in Singapore. Such discussions might range of behavioural predispositions well be meaningfully applied to a number and cognitive biases. These include: of issues pertinent to Singapore today. encouraging spending by framing a the Introduction devotes some transfer as a “bonus” rather than a space to discussing the ethical questions “rebate”, limiting the time period in that might arise from the adoption which transfers can be consumed, and of behavioural economics tools to changing the structure and substance public policy decisions. One concern is of transfers to avoid building up a sense paternalism. Is the government being too of entitlement. intrusive in “nudging” citizens towards While policymakers are often one set of actions over another? Another thought of as having to make time- criticism is that the intentions of the

68 / Book Review: Policymaking for Real People state when employing such behavioural could also be used to empower citizens. tools may not be consistent. Where is Chapter 5 on electricity, for example, the dividing line behind a benevolent demonstrates how the Government nudge and the use of psychological can use smart meters, and tailor the devices to promote particular interests at presentation of information in electricity the expense of society? A third concern bills, to improve the information given is how one deals with cognitive biases to households, empowering them to that also affect the Government, given make better choices at their discretion. that these behavioural limitations are one way to address the question of common human traits no one is immune the Government’s own cognitive biases to. One reasoned response offered in and bounded rationality is to bring the chapter is that the Government, greater transparency to the thinking in designing policies from electricity behind various policy issues, opening pricing to tobacco sales, has to offer the policy process to a wider set of choices one way or another, and that stakeholders: through participation, these regulatory designs are part and and rigorous, informed deliberation. parcel of the responsibilities of the state. Clearly, not all issues can be subject The Government should therefore find to the same level of participation and ways to actively counter these biases. debate. Some require expert input, others How then should we systematically go are taken under urgent time pressures, about thinking through the possible and still others might involve national pitfalls and available remedies? security concerns. Nevertheless, these taking the case of organ donation considerations ought to prompt greater as an example: if an opt-out policy effort to systematically identify which were to be adopted in a country, how issues would benefit from a more open should the policy be communicated and and participatory approach to policy implemented? At what age is each citizen design, so that the policymakers do not informed of the policy and given the become captive to their own biases. choice to remain a donor or opt out? A common theme discussed in the If or when the option is provided, is it book is the value of combining the accompanied by a balanced discussion of insights of behavioural economics with the pertinent considerations — moral, the policy practices of transparency and ethical, spiritual and practical? The participation. Moreover, a unilateral implications for paternalism vary widely, approach to policymaking is increasingly depending on the answers to these out of sync with a Singaporean society questions. The principles of behavioural and economy that is highly networked economics suggest that information and integrated with global processes of

ETHOS / 69 production, innovation, and cultural and public. In doing so, it also represents an ideational exchange. Deliberative and evolving attitude of greater openness, participatory approaches to governance with policy practitioners prepared to be allow the Government to draw on reflective about the learning that has the diverse viewpoints and skillsets taken place within Government, upfront of society as a strength, and enable a about missteps that have occurred, and more flexible, responsive, and ultimately frank about the difficult challenges more robust approach to governance. of grappling with norms, values, and psychological biases alongside technical One way to address the question of the economic issues. Government’s own cognitive biases is Finally, the book represents an admirable contribution to strengthening to bring greater transparency to the exchanges between policymakers and thinking behind various policy issues, academia. Apart from behavioural economics, the field of cultural economics and open the policy process to a wider is also uncovering new insights into how set of stakeholders. norms and values — from expectations of social mobility, to social capital and the first step towards a more trust — relate to economic issues such as participatory approach to governance inequality, democracy and the functioning is to open up the policymaking process of institutions.2 This growing body of to the public. In this regard, this book work offers another exciting source of makes a substantial contribution by new ideas for policymakers in Singapore bringing the voices and thoughts of to draw from, to respond to ever-more different practitioners directly to the complex governance challenges.

NOTES

1. One widely cited book about “nudging” people 2. See, for example, Alesina, A., and Glaeser, E., towards more optimal decisions, for example, Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe: A World is Thaler, R. and Sunstein, C., Nudge: of Difference (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Press, 2004); Alesina, A. and la Ferrara, E., Happiness (Yale University Press, 2008). “Preferences for Redistribution in the Land of Opportunities”, Journal of Public Economics 89 (2005): 897–931.

70 / Book Review: Policymaking for Real People BOOK REVIEW

How Not to Lose the War on Poverty

Conventional strategies to fight poverty may be doing more harm than good.

BOOK DETAILS Fighting Poverty Together: Rethinking Strategies for Business, Government and Civil Society to Reduce Poverty By Aneel Karnani Palgrave Macmillan (May 2011); 304 pp.; £26.00

REVIEWED BY Jeanne Conceicao is Senior Researcher at the Centre for Governance and Leadership, Civil Service College. Her research interests are in government-people relations, networking and engagement. She Jeanne Conceicao received a Masters from Harvard in government studies. The views expressed in this article are her own.

Author Aneel Karnani, who teaches at pervasiveness of poverty in a sea of the University of Michigan’s Ross School relative global affluence suggests that of Business, believes that being poor prosperity does not always trickle down should not be romanticised. In movies to those who need it most, nor do the such as Slumdog Millionaire (2008), he very poor — with little economic or argues, the poor are depicted as having political representation — have the an uncanny ability, strength and will to means to seek the help they need. rise above their depressing lot in life if Instead, Karnani believes poverty they put their minds to it. This notion eradication depends on efforts of three of the poor, Karnani says, is damaging main actors — the private business to the fight against poverty as it gives community, the government and civil the wrong impression that the poor can society. He regards each of these sectors alter their own situation. The simple as having distinct roles to play and, rather fact of the matter is that the poor for than remain aloof or even disdainful of the most part are unable and incapable one another’s contributions, they should of doing so. They need help. take a more constructive, collaborative Nor does Karnani believe that view of how they can work together to economic growth in itself will lead alleviate poverty around the world. to the alleviation of poverty. The

ETHOS / 71 Debunking “Microfinance” and Even the propounded benefits of “Bottom of the Pyramid” Strategies microfinance, such as the empowerment Significantly, Karnani spends a good of women, do not bear out under analysis, portion of Fighting Poverty Together according to Karnani. Women might debunking the efficacy of two major have access to loans but they do not poverty alleviation strategies that have control over the loan or the income have captured the popular imagination: generated from the microenterprise. Microfinance, and the Bottom of the Loans made to the women often get Pyramid (BOP). passed on to the male breadwinners in their families. In other words, microcredit The Limits of Microfinance does not in itself overcome patriarchal Contrary to popular belief, Karnani systems of control. argues, microfinance has not managed Nevertheless, microfinance could still to reduce poverty — for several reasons. succeed in alleviating poverty. Karnani First, the money from most microloans suggests that appropriate regulation is is spent on consumption rather than key and that industry self-regulation invested in business ventures, and could be a useful supplement to legal therefore cannot result in increased regulation. Large commercial banks income for the poor. Second, most could pressure the banking industry to poor lack the entrepreneurial skills to exercise social responsibility. International succeed at running their own businesses. organisations such as the World Bank Third, the microenterprises funded and U.S. Agency for International lack economies of scale and have low Development could also pressure their productivity, yielding the borrowers clients to prevent exploitation of the too little income to lift themselves poor, and help developing countries out of poverty. Fourth, if the interest build up effective regulatory regimes. rates are too high (as reflected in many Civil society could keep a check on microfinance strategies) the borrower private banks that behave inappropriately might even become poorer rather than when disbursing microfinance funds to wealthier.1 Fifth, there is a tremendous the poor, and help educate microcredit lack of transparency in the industry, so users about their rights. much so many of its failings have gone undetected and the poor suffer in silence The Fallacy of the Bottom/Base of the due to the lack of representation. Even Pyramid (BOP) Market the purported abusive loan recovery Karnani argues that those who systems of Grameen Bank, whose chief propose that businesses could make was the creator of microfinance, have good profit while helping to alleviate for the most part gone unreported. poverty by selling to the poor — the

72 / Book Review: How Not to Lose the War on Poverty so-called Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) the poor. Many business ventures into approach — are mistaken. He rebuts the BOP market have proven not to be the key propositions of BOP. cost-effective in the short or long run, and economically unsustainable. Proposition 1: There is much untapped purchasing power at the Proposition 3: Large bottom of the pyramid. Private multinational companies (MNCs) companies could make significant should play the leading role in profits by selling to the poor. this process of selling to the poor. Karnani argues that this is a fallacy Large MNCs have been playing an active because the BOP market is much smaller role in selling to the poor. Most have been than estimated. Most of the income unsuccessful; they have either stopped of the poor (at least 80%) is spent on selling to the poor and gone upscale to basic necessities like food, water and sell to middle-income earners instead, shelter (unlike the income of the more or closed down operations altogether affluent). There is little left over for due to the lack of cost effectiveness. anything else. Furthermore, the cost of While there is no fortune to be made serving this market can be very high. from marketing to the poor, Karnani The poor are often geographically suggests that it might be viable on a dispersed, increasing distribution costs limited scale, provided there are strong and making it difficult to reap economies symbiotic partnerships between local of scale. Weak infrastructure and small governments, NGOs and businesses, transaction sizes further increase the and if the products sold to the poor cost of doing business. truly benefit them.

Proposition 2: By selling to the Going Forward: The Roles of poor, private companies can bring Government, Civil Society and prosperity to the poor, and thus Private Business in the Fight can help eradicate poverty. against Poverty Reducing the prices of products purchased Karnani believes that poverty reduction by the poor might be expected to increase efforts should aim to increase the their effective income and thus help them income of the poor by viewing them to accumulate savings, or invest the extra as producers (and not as consumers as income, for example, in education. But reflected in the BOP approach). His book Karnani argues that this is hardly ever argues for the creation of employment possible because the price would have opportunities suited for the poor — a to be reduced by 90% for the products task he believes the private sector to make any impact on the income of is best suited for. In Karnani’s view,

ETHOS / 73 civil society could support this effort Conclusion as a catalyst for action, advocate and While microfinancing has not taken off in watchdog, intervening where necessary Singapore’s banking industry, civil society to identify and bridge market gaps.2 groups here have considered the possibility Governments, Karnani argues, of providing microfinance loans to the should facilitate job creation by fostering poor (those without collateral), although an environment conducive for business none have yet come to fruition. Karnani’s to grow and thrive, and improve the cautionary analysis of microfinance employability of the poor: by improving offers a sobering perspective for any their skills and capabilities, and by organisation considering such efforts. reducing friction in labour markets. Nevertheless, microcredit approaches to Governments also have a major role help the poor could succeed if carefully to play in addressing market failures crafted and managed well, as with any through regulation, and service provision. business strategy. Karnani argues that state responsibilities Fighting Poverty Together is a salient are magnified in the case of the poor, reminder that poverty alleviation requires because markets for the poor fail more a concerted effort by many stakeholders often and the poor are more critically in society. Government can keep public dependent on public services. The services within the reach of the poor, provision of basic public services such who are disproportionately dependent as education, public health, sanitation on such services to get by. It can also and infrastructure is therefore the provide the necessary infrastructure, government’s key responsibility in the education and jobs in order that people, fight against poverty, as the poor bear especially the poor, are provided with a disproportionate share of the burden the tools to become self-reliant. But when these services are inadequate. private businesses and civil society can also play an important part by increasing the income of the poor and being more vigilant in identifying market gaps, respectively.

NOTES

1. This was the case with the Mexican bank 2. One cited example of an effective NGO is Banco Compartamos whose actual interest TechnoServe, which identifies high potential rates could reach more than 100% per annum. but underperforming economic subsectors and Karnani opined that organisations that charged helps resolve the identified market failures that high interest rates contributed to rather than constrain their development. helped alleviate poverty.

74 / Book Review: How Not to Lose the War on Poverty Managing Transitions

How can individuals manage the challenges — and reap the potential benefits — of life changes and workplace transitions?

by Khoo Ee Wan is Senior Consultant (Psychologist) at the Centre for Leadership Development in the Civil Service College. The Centre provides leadership assessment and development services that support the Khoo Ee Wan Singapore Public Service in developing a pipeline of talent that are inspired to lead and drive change.

ETHOS / 75 The Impact of Success or Failure Strategies for in Making Transitions Managing Transitions Success or failure during a period of While organisations could devote more significant job changes is a strong effort and resources to actively help their predictor of overall success or failure staff manage transitions, individuals on that job.1 Research has consistently need to take ultimate responsibility shown that both career-related transitions for their lives. Greater awareness of and events in one’s personal life can be the possible transitions that they may powerful triggers for transformative self face during their working years, the and leadership development, because the challenges involved in these transitions, challenges presented by these transitions and the strategies they can adopt to provide opportunities for the individual better manage these transitions, would to acquire new skills and beliefs that all help individuals to be more prepared would help him become more effective.2 to handle transitions, particularly however, not everyone is successful those which their organisations have in making a transition. Some people little control over and can offer little may be unwilling to let go of a previous meaningful support for. role and its accompanying beliefs and Although the demands of every behaviours; others may be unwilling transition may be different, there are and/or unable to acquire a new role some general strategies that an individual together with the unfamiliar beliefs and can adopt to enhance transition success behaviours that are necessary for meeting in the workplace. the new demands. By one estimate, over 75% of high-potential leaders experience Positivity significant to moderate problems According to Schlossberg,7 adaptation when they move into a new role,3 and to a transition is the interaction of three transition failures could lead to stress sets of variables: an individual’s perception and burnout or a sense of stagnation, of the transition, the characteristics of the derailment and career dissatisfaction.4,5 individual, and the characteristics of the At the organisational level, the cost of a pre- and post-transition environments. leader who fails to adjust to a transition Positivity means that the individual includes organisational inefficiencies, perceives the transition as a positive event failure to complete important initiatives and is ready to embrace the challenges or meet important organisational and risks and make the necessary goals, as well as adverse impact on adaptations. Being developmentally the engagement and development of ready, that is, having “the ability and subordinates reporting to the leader.6 motivation to attend to, make meaning

76 / Managing Transitions of and appropriate new knowledge into response to a change are more likely to one’s long-term memory structures”,8 be comfortable with the change and to facilitates learning from work and have a high capacity for change. Such life experiences in general. More positivity is particularly essential when specifically, perceiving the transition the pre- and post-transition environments as an opportunity for greater learning are significantly different, which and growth would help one accept a represents a more intense transition higher level of challenge during the that requires a greater degree of new transition.9 Bunker10 similarly points learning. Positivity may be more difficult out that people who adopt a learner when the transition is perceived to be

MATRIX OF COMMON TRANSITIONS CAREER/WORK LIFE/RELATIONSHIPS/FAMILY

Career-related difficulties or negative events Difficulties and negative events in one’s at the workplace: personal life:

• Having to work with a bad boss • Family problems Adversity • Having to work with • Death of significant others competitive peers • Divorce • Being passed over for a promotion • Personal upheaval, e.g. midlife crisis • Significant failure at work • Serious illness or physical challenge • Losing faith in the system • Losing meaning in life • Being part of a re-organisation • Losing a job/retirement

Range of interesting, stimulating projects, Breadth of life experience/life events: assignments, and roles: • Participating in a range of • Joining a new organisation experiences outside work Diversity • Accepting a stretch assignment • Interacting with people of • Progression along the other cultures leadership pipeline • Living in a different country • Working internationally • Marriage and/or family: finding a meaningful work-life balance • Developing and living a meaningful credo • Understanding and accepting your legacy

Matrix adapted from Dotlich, Noel & Walker, 2004; list of transitions collated from Charan, Drotter & Noel, 2001; Dotlich et al., 2004; Ruderman & Ohlott, 2000.

ETHOS / 77 undesirable. What is helpful in these as possible about the nature of the role, instances is to see the transition from a the job content, how the role fits into broader perspective, which can provide the organisational context, and what a greater degree of objectivity about others expect of him in this role, and the situation and serve as a reminder obtain validation from his supervisor that negative events can provide useful for his definition of the job.16–19 leadership development experiences.11 Beyond a cognitive understanding of new role requirements, the individual People who adopt a learner response needs to reflect on what the transition are more likely to have a high capacity means for him at a more personal level. A transition often challenges an for change. individual’s sense of identity because questions about who he is, who he is Positivity also entails being becoming, what his values and ideals resilient, instead of allowing self-doubt are, and how he matters and belongs or defeatism to hamper one’s ability to to the group or community are likely handle the challenges of a transition.12 to surface during this time. To make While there is an element of optimism sense of the situation, the individual to positivity, this is optimism that may have to revisit his self-identity and is grounded in reality. In one study, make readjustments where necessary.20-22 individuals who approached career This examination of identity not only change planfully and realistically cited applies to work or leadership identity, better experiences of the transition and but may also extend to one’s personal perceived themselves to be coping better and family identities.23 A successful than did individuals who ignored signs adjustment to a transition means that of change or reacted unrealistically.13 the individual has internalised a new role identity and reworked his life story Clarity about Role Requirements and such that he can meaningfully link who Internalisation of New Identity he is and who he will become.24 Transition failures often occur because Internalising a new role identity people do not understand their roles is an important part of the transition when they move to a new position.14,15 adjustment process because the Without this information, it will be discoveries and reflections that the difficult for them to make sense of individual makes during this time help their new environment and adjust him to acquire new perspectives about accordingly. An individual anticipating how he can contribute and add value in or going through a transition in the his new role, and these transformations work context needs to find out as much in his thinking will bring about sustained

78 / Managing Transitions behavioural changes.25,26 To the extent market knowledge, organisational that this new identity is accepted by norms and power-relations, procedures others, it would also facilitate his or approaches for completing work social integration.27 tasks.29–32 Researchers also note that different work and life experiences offer Commitment to Learning different learning opportunities,33,34 Another key theme in the experiences and even transitions that represent an of individuals going through transitions adversity, such as failure at work or is about gaining competence in meeting loss of significant others, can facilitate the demands of a new role. Individuals learning and development and bring often feel vulnerable and incompetent about greater leadership maturity.35 when they are making a transition What is important during the because the demands of the new role transition is that the individual accepts will always differ from the demands personal responsibility for the situation of the previous role, and the familiar and puts in the effort to quickly and beliefs, knowledge and well-honed efficiently learn what he does not know. skills that have helped the individuals Besides identifying his learning agenda, to succeed in the previous role are no he has to plan how he can best address longer adequate and in some cases, these gaps (whether it is through tapping the current capabilities may no longer on the knowledge of specific persons, be useful. Yet, during times of stress, hands-on experience, critical analysis, individuals are even more likely to or other methods).36,37 He must also fall back reflexively on the skills and exercise self-discipline to consciously strategies which have been tried and work at those areas that he needs to tested in the past, even though they improve in or do more of.38 may no longer be effective.28 At this point, clarity about role A successful adjustment to a transition requirements, coupled with an accurate means that the individual has internalised assessment of one’s current strengths and limitations and reflexive responses a new role identity. to challenges, can help the individual to identify what needs to be learnt to Accepting personal responsibility close the competency gap. Broadly, is particularly helpful for transitions career-related transitions may require that represent adversity because it the individual to close skills gaps in allows the individual to engage in fulfilling new responsibilities as well constructive self-examination, which as knowledge gaps in terms of technical increases awareness about his limitations or business knowledge, customer or and vulnerabilities. It also encourages

ETHOS / 79 him to reflect on how he can be a more his supervisor’s style and agenda, and effective leader.39 negotiate success for himself by clarifying mutual expectations, seeking Delivering Results the necessary resources, and working in Once the individual has made sense ways that would support his supervisor’s of his new role and gained greater agenda. He also has to build a strong knowledge about his new situation, network of people who can support him, he has to map out his key priorities and to create coalitions with stakeholders and strategies in the coming months, that are critical to his success.44,45 define performance standards, and then ensure he achieves the desired Renewal and Support results.40,41 The strategy needs to be Besides a steep learning curve, individuals mapped to the particular characteristics undergoing a transition are likely to and challenges of the situation.42 In be under pressure to deliver results addition, although it is important to quickly.46 The emotional and cognitive strategise about longer term goals, it challenges posed by transitions mean is also important that the individual that they are stressful periods and identifies some immediate focal points during these times, the individual has where he can quickly achieve tangible to find ways to maintain a sense of results. Securing such early wins in balance in his life. This may include his new role would help establish his engaging in re-energising activities credibility and set up a virtuous cycle (such as sports or hobbies) or seeking which would facilitate further success.43 a quiet place of refuge where he can temporarily escape and recharge.47 What is important during the transition He also needs to set aside time to get is that the individual accepts personal adequate rest and sleep, and to have the mental space to reflect.48 responsibility for the situation and puts in the individual may also need to the effort to quickly and efficiently learn seek additional support to help him get through the transition, to prevent what he does not know. burnout and to provide renewal.49 During this period, his social networks (such Building and managing key as family, friends and other community relationships will facilitate the individual’s groups) and his professional networks ability to deliver results. One key of peers, superiors or mentors, may relationship that has to be managed be able to provide both emotional and is the individual’s relationship with practical support as well as serve as role his supervisor. He has to understand models or offer additional insights or

80 / Managing Transitions alternative perspectives that can help Conclusion him cope with the situation.50 In fact, While we may not always be able to a study showed that social support plan what transitions we have to face, mechanisms, such as having regular we are able to calibrate our responses feedback from their supervisors or to these transitions. These strategies peers, improved people’s ability to could help an individual manage the learn from extremely challenging work challenges of transitions and reap their experiences.51 Such support would help potential benefits. enhance transition success.

NOTES

1. Watkins, M.D., “Picking the Right Transition 6. Byham, T.M., Concelman, J., Cosentino, C., Strategy”, Harvard Business Review (January and Wellins, R., Optimising Your Leadership 2009): 47–53. Pipeline (Development Dimensions International, Inc., 2007). 2. Significant life changes can challenge basic beliefs and assumptions, requiring us to 7. Schlossberg, N.K., “A Model for Analysing transform how we perceive and interpret Human Adaptation to Transition”, Counselling ourselves and the world around us, and to Psychologist 9 (1981): 2–18. develop new priorities, learn unfamiliar skills, behaviours and patterns of interpersonal 8. Hannah, S.T., and Lester, P.B., “A Multilevel reactions so that we can transit into the new Approach to Building and Leading Learning role or situation. (Ibarra and Barbulescu, Organisations“, The Leadership Quarterly 20 2010; Isopahkala-Bouret, 2008; Sargent and (2009): 34–48. Schlossberg, 1988). 9. DeRue, D.S., and Wellman, N., “Developing 3. Shaw, R.B., and Chayes, M.M., ”Moving Up: Leaders via Experience: The Role of Ten Questions for Leaders in Transition”, Developmental Challenge, Learning Leader to Leader (2011), 39–45. Orientation, and Feedback Availability”, Journal of Applied Psychology 94 (2009): 859–875. 4. Dotlich, D.L., Noel, J.L., and Walker, N., Leadership Passages: The Personal and 10. Bunker, K.A., Responses to Change: Helping Professional Transitions that Make or Break a People Manage Transition (Greensboro: Center Leader (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2004). for Creative Leadership, 2008).

5. McCauley, C.D., and Lombardo, M.M., 11. See Endnote 4. “Benchmarks: An Instrument for Diagnosing Managerial Strengths and Weakness”, in 12. See Endnote 4. Measures of Leadership, eds, in K.E. Clark and M. Clark (West Orange, NJ: Leadership Library 13. Ebberwein, C.A., Krieshok, T.S., Ulven, J.C., of America, 1990), 535–545. and Prosser, E.C., “Voices in Transition: Lessons on Career Adaptability”, The Career Development Quarterly 52 (2004): 292–308.

ETHOS / 81 14. Charan, R., Drotter, S., and Noel, J., The 30. Isopahkala-Bouret, U., “Transformative Leadership Pipeline: How To Build The Learning in Managerial Role Transition”, Leadership-Powered Company (San Francisco: Studies in Continuing Education 30, No. 1 Jossey-Bass, 2001). (2008): 69–84.

15. Hill, L., “Becoming the Boss”, Harvard 31. See Endnote 18. Business Review (2007): 49–56. 32. See Endnote 3. 16. See Endnote 14. 33. McCall, M.W., “Recasting Leadership 17. Ibarra, H., and Barbulescu, R., “Identity as Development”, Industrial and Organizational Narrative: Prevalence, Effectiveness, and Psychology 3 (2010): 3–19. Consequences of Narrative Identity Work in Macro Work Role Transitions”, Academy of 34. Ruderman, M.N., and Ohlott, P.J., Learning Management Review 35 (2010): 135–154. from Life: Turning Life’s Lessons into Leadership Experience (Greensboro: Center for 18. Sargent, A.G., and Schlossberg, N.K., Creative Leadership, 2000). “Managing Adult Transitions”, Training and Development Journal 42 (1988): 58–60. 35. See Endnote 4.

19. See Endnote 3. 36. See Endnote 3.

20. Avolio, B.J., and Hannah, S.T., “Developmental 37. Watkins, M.D., The First 90 Days: Critical Readiness: Accelerating Leader Development”, Success Strategies for New Leaders at All Consulting Psychology Journal: Practice and Levels (Boston: Harvard Business School Research 60 (2008): 331–347. Press, 2003).

21. See Endnote 17. 38. See Endnote 1.

22. Louis, M.R., “Career Transitions: Varieties and 39. See Endnote 4. Commonalities”, Academy of Management 5 (1980): 329–340. 40. See Endnote 14.

23. Musselwhite, W.C., and Dillon, L.S., “Timing, 41. See Endnote 3. For Leadership Training, Is Everything”, Personnel Journal 66 (1987): 103–110. 42. See Endnote 1.

24. See Endnote 17. 43. See Endnote 37.

25. See Endnote 20. 44. See Endnote 1.

26. Ibarra, H., Snook, S., and Guillen Ramo, 45. See Endnote 37. L., Identity-Based Leader Development (Fontainebleau: INSEAD, 2008). 46. Chari, S., “Handling Career Role Transitions with Confidence”, The International Journal of 27. See Endnote 17. Clinical Leadership (2008): 109–114.

28. Berglas, S., and Baumeister, R.F., Your Own 47. See Endnote 4. Worst Enemy: Understanding the Paradox of Self-Defeating Behaviour (New York: Basic 48. See Endnote 46. Books, 1993). 49. See Endnote 18. 29. Ibarra, H., and Hunter, M., “How Leaders Create and Use Networks”, Harvard Business 50. See Endnote 4. Review (2007): 40–47. 51. See Endnote 9.

82 / Managing Transitions Opinion

New Capabilities in Strategic Leadership: Insights from Singapore

Singapore’s experience holds lessons for the establishment of robust, future-oriented national strategy frameworks elsewhere.

BY Sheila R. Ronis, PhD is Professor of Management and Director of the MBA/Master of Management Programs at Walsh College, and a Distinguished Fellow with the Project on National Security Reform. This Sheila Ronis article draws from her research as a Fulbright Specialist Scholar.

The Vision Working Group of the Countries such as the United Project on National Security Reform in Kingdom and Si ng ap ore have the United States (US) recommended the established such long-term, whole- establishment of a Center for Strategic of-government thinking and planning Analysis and Assessment in its July capabilities within the heart of 2010 Report and Scenarios. The Group their administrations. These are determined that the US needs a place, capabilities that will be of growing a process and set of capabilities, in the relevance to any country in a world Executive Office of the President (EOP), of increasing complexity. to develop and test grand strategies for For decades the private sector has the nation, and particularly to support routinely used management tools such the national security system. as forecasting, scenario based planning, Many nations produce national strategic visioning, political and security strategies. T hey a re economic risk assessments. Such tools frequently documents that represent a are sometimes used in pockets, in specific comprehensive discussion of where a government agencies or departments, country is going and what it wants to but they are rarely, if ever, used across accomplish; a list of aspirational goals all agencies — especially in a whole- by a ruling party or an administration. of-government manner.

ETHOS / 83 the question is: what mechanisms prioritised based upon considerations such should a government develop to improve as knowledge, expertise, probability a nation’s ability to plan in a whole-of- of success, resources, long- government way for its future; to be term sustainability, proportionality better prepared for a future that is very and intention. different from its past? A National Security System needs to become a “learning organisation” that Towards an Adaptive National can anticipate, adapt to, and successfully Security System address the widest range of threats and A nation’s security is rooted in the opportunities. As a complex adaptive successful integration of all major system, the future security system should elements of national power: economic, possess certain inherent qualities that diplomatic, military, informational and will be critical to success. It must: so on. When successfully combined, the vitality of a nation is ensured and • Share information and collaborate the country’s ability to encourage horizontally; positive change throughout the globe is enhanced. • Accommodate unanticipated needs If “what is” and “what is not” in the and partnerships; arena of National Security is artificially or prematurely narrowed, it is likely • Ensure agility in the face that situations will be misread and that of uncertainty; can ultimately, and negatively, affect a nation. Ten years ago, the challenges • Incorporate ad-hoc structures and related to sub-prime mortgages, processes; and earthquakes, automobile emissions and pilot training rosters were not typically • Maintain a long-term view. the focus of national security. Today, it is clear that they might well have Because all national security been. The point is no one can imagine systems are complex adaptive systems, or determine now with certainty what it is difficult to separate geo-political, might affect a nation in the future. social and economic phenomena. These threats can be assessed and elements interact as a system of systems. prioritised based upon considerations In most instances, it is a complex system such as urgency, impact, magnitude, of complex systems and that is the mitigation options and intention. challenge facing a nation. Perhaps the Opportunities can be assessed and most important characteristic about

84 / New Capabilities in Strategic Leadership: Insights from Singapore complex systems is that they cannot Creating mechanisms for this to be controlled — at best, they can be happen at the whole-of-government influenced. And the systems can only level requires context and synthesis. be influenced if understood intimately. It also requires breaking down the In the US, a White House Center stovepipes of government so they can for Strategic Analysis and Assessment work together effectively.1 would need to learn, analyse, assess and synthesise risk, foresight and aid the Lessons from Singapore’s Centre development of “grand strategy” across for Strategic Futures the government, supporting whatever A study of Singapore’s Centre for national security structure is in place. Strategic Futures yields many lessons that can assist in the establishment of What mechanisms should such strategic institutions elsewhere. 2 a government develop to According to Peter Ho, a former Head of the Singapore Civil Service, there are be better prepared for a four major roles for Singapore’s Centre, future that is very different all of which should be represented in the US EOP Center’s set of capabilities. from its past? They are:

one of the Vision Working Group • “Challenge conformist thinking” findings was the need to synthesise by building global networks and “all of government” — and sometimes partnerships with academia, think “all of society” — solutions to complex tanks and global thought leaders system issues and problems. The only through conferences and projects; successful way to do this is to be constantly learning about systemic • “Identify emergent risks” by creating issues — through hyper learning modes risk maps and communicating using accelerated learning processes, emerging issues to decision-makers; coupled with foresight tools such as Delphi techniques and risk assessment. • “Calibrate strategic thinking These enable the development of processes” by using scenario scenarios for planning, and ultimately planning and risk assessment to contribute to the ability to develop develop policy and new capabilities; “Grand Strategies”. Every country could benefit from • “Cultivate capabilities, instincts the systematic use of these tools and and habits”, by using systems and processes to improve decision-making. strategic frameworks and mindsets

ETHOS / 85 to deal with uncertainty, disruptive the assessment of risk will need to shocks and whole-of-government encompass system risk most of the time. approaches regularly. Frequently, the impact of a particular course of action has an associated this set of capabilities and mindsets economic or political risk. However, represents a strategic capacity for risk in a world of complexity requires Singapore that, although not specifically an understanding, not only of individual scalable to all countries, would certainly risk variables but of the interactions of enhance country governing structures risks associated with all of the system the world over. variables across the STEEP risk spectrum — Sociological, Technological, Complex systems cannot be controlled — Economic, Environmental and at best they can be influenced. Political risk.

such capabilities can be realised by Conclusion: Sustaining the establishment, within the highest Strategic Leadership levels of government, of an institution As the rate of change and the complexity (or at a minimum, a process and a set of of challenges continue to increase, capabilities), that enables the development there is little doubt over the value of and use of forward-looking global conducting long-term strategic planning contexts to improve decision-making. and attempting to create “anticipatory It would do so by integrating all major governance” in the Leon Fuerth sense.3 elements of national power — economic, the turnover and shifts in diplomatic, informational, defence and priorities that accompany successive others — in order to assess 2nd, 3rd administrations and/or leaders can and 4th order effects of decisions and render this process difficult, but not develop “grand strategy” where necessary. impossible. Long-term planning, to Singapore represents an example of the extent that it can be carried out where this kind of thinking is thriving. at all, may be limited to a few years. the assessment capability of such Strategies that take longer to achieve a system should be developed using may be discarded by future leaders five essential planning perspectives and this is expected. Policy planners of 1) space, 2) the planet, 3) regions, must, in order to remain relevant, tailor 4) countries, and 5) internal (domestic) their strategies based on the political for each three-time near, mid, and long- priorities of the leadership under whom term cycles. Each of these near, mid, and they serve. Nevertheless, with some long-term assessments would include both changes in processes and culture, a geographic and functional dimensions. Strategic Centre could ameliorate this

86 / New Capabilities in Strategic Leadership: Insights from Singapore situation even if it cannot eliminate the • Engaging in “red teaming” and problem completely. alternative analyses to test assumptions Perhaps the best way to level and solutions with rigorous the changing priorities issue is to be problem analysis; inclusive in the range of issues studied and prepared for. That way when a • Providing, when necessary, new priority comes along (or a new classified research environments; Administration in the case of the US), the staff is knowledgeable about the • Development of “grand strategies” issue, but does not “throw away” the as assigned by the leader and base work on all issues: so when they facilitating long-term planning and become “hot” once more, decision-makers preserving institutional memory; are not starting all over again with new studies and new people. • Providing networking and outreach In conclusion, a Strategic Centre’s to government, academia, industry core capabilities need to include: and the general public including public seminars and conferences; • Strategic and systems thinking and “visioning”; • Challenging conventional wisdom in the Singaporean sense and • The development of a holistic the Project on National Security and evolving view of the global Reform sense. environment and national security context; such Centres will help senior government policymakers everywhere • The ability to game specific scenarios to plan for the future, and the role their to assist in the formulation of country will play in that future. contingency plans and to test the impact of proposed policies;

• Regular development of scenarios in 10, 20, 50+ years;

• The capacity to house leading edge tools and technologies for assessments, especially “system risk”;

ETHOS / 87 NOTES further references

1. Ronis, S. R., ed., Project on National Marshall, G. C., The Winning of the War in Europe Security Reform Vision Working Group Report and the Pacific: Biennial Report of the Chief of and Scenarios (Carlisle, Pennsylvania: Staff of the United States Army, July 1, 1943, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War to June 30, 1945, to the Secretary of War (New College, 2010). York: Simon & Schuster, 1945).

2. Ho, P., “Thinking About the Future: What Project on National Security Reform, Forging a the Civil Service Can Do”, ETHOS, Issue 7 New Shield (Arlington, VA: Project on National (January 2010), Centre for Governance and Security Reform, 2008). Leadership, Civil Service College, Singapore.

3. Fuerth, L. S., Project on Forward Engagement. (Washington, DC: George Washington University, 2006).

88 / New Capabilities in Strategic Leadership: Insights from Singapore ETHOS / 89 90 /