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Emerging Asia LNG Demand

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Emerging Asia LNG Demand September 2020 Emerging Asia LNG demand Mike Fulwood, James Henderson, Ieda Gomes, OIES Paper: NG 162 Martin Lambert & Jack Sharples Eds. Mike Fulwood and Martin Lambert i The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2020 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-164-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26889/9781784671648 i Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 2 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ................................................................................................ 8 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Gas Demand ................................................................................................................................... 9 Supply – Demand Balance ............................................................................................................ 12 Key Issues ..................................................................................................................................... 14 INDONESIA .......................................................................................................................................... 15 Historic Supply-Demand ................................................................................................................ 15 Gas Consumption by Sector ......................................................................................................... 16 Pipeline and LNG Exports ............................................................................................................. 20 Internal Indonesian LNG Movements ............................................................................................ 21 LNG Contracts ............................................................................................................................... 22 Infrastructure: LNG terminals and pipelines .................................................................................. 23 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 27 Supply / Demand Projections ........................................................................................................ 30 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 39 PHILIPPINES ........................................................................................................................................ 40 Historic Supply Demand and Infrastructure .................................................................................. 40 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 43 Supply / Demand Projection .......................................................................................................... 44 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 47 HONG KONG ........................................................................................................................................ 49 Historic Infrastructure and Supply / Demand ................................................................................ 49 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 50 Potential LNG import infrastructure ............................................................................................... 50 Supply / Demand projections ........................................................................................................ 51 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 51 BANGLADESH ..................................................................................................................................... 53 Historic Supply and Demand ......................................................................................................... 53 Production ..................................................................................................................................... 55 Infrastructure and Contracts .......................................................................................................... 58 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 58 Supply and Demand Projections ................................................................................................... 59 Gas Supply and Demand Balance ................................................................................................ 60 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 62 SINGAPORE ......................................................................................................................................... 63 Historic Supply and Demand ......................................................................................................... 63 Infrastructure and Contracts .......................................................................................................... 66 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 66 Supply and Demand Projections ................................................................................................... 67 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 71 THAILAND ............................................................................................................................................ 72 Historic Supply and Demand ......................................................................................................... 72 Infrastructure and Contracts .......................................................................................................... 75 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 78 Supply and Demand Projections ................................................................................................... 79 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 83 PAKISTAN ............................................................................................................................................ 84 Historic Supply and Demand ......................................................................................................... 84 Infrastructure and Contracts .......................................................................................................... 90 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................... 92 ii Supply and Demand Projections ................................................................................................... 94 Gas Supply and Demand Balance ................................................................................................ 96 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 98 MALAYSIA............................................................................................................................................ 99 Historic Supply and Demand ......................................................................................................... 99 Production ................................................................................................................................... 103 Infrastructure and Contracts ........................................................................................................ 104 Government Policy and Regulation ............................................................................................. 106 Supply and Demand Projections ................................................................................................. 108 Gas Supply and Demand Balance .............................................................................................
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