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Federal Bank (FEDBAN) Federal Bank (FEDBAN) CMP: | 82 Target: | 95 (16%) Target Period: 12 months BUY May 18, 2021 Business growth outlook improving… Federal Bank reported mixed results wherein it saw an improvement in business growth and stable asset quality but with utilisation of Covid- provisions in the current quarter, additional provisioning buffer has reduced. Net interest income (NII) declined 1.2% QoQ to | 1420 crore. This was below Particulars our expectations. Reversals worth | 21 crore for interest on interest relief Particulars Amount were party responsible for slower NII growth. NIMs remained stable at Market Capitalisation | 16291 crore 3.23% vs. 3.22% on a QoQ basis aided by lower cost of funds. Other income GNPA (Q4FY21) | 4602 crore also declined 3.4% QoQ to | 465 crore as treasury income fell 44% QoQ but NNPA (Q4FY21) | 1569 crore Update Result fee income saw decent growth of 21.9% YoY, 3.5% QoQ. NIM (Q4FY21) % 3.2 52 week H/L 92 /37 Net Worth |16123 Opex increased 4.7% QoQ due to increased business activity. Hence, as a Face value | 2 result of subdued topline and increase in opex, C/I ratio jumped from 49.8% DII Holding (%) 43.3 to 53.1% QoQ. The bank, during the quarter, used | 60 crore worth FII Holding (%) 24.5 provisions towards restructuring under resolution framework and | 475 crore towards IRAC norms requirement, from | 536 crore Covid-19 Key Highlights provisions held in previous quarter. Overall provisions declined 42% QoQ. Sequential rise in loan growth driven As a result, PAT was up 58% YoY, 18% QoQ to | 478 crore. by retail segment growth Overall asset quality saw a spike on a reported basis due to removal of The bank has utilised Covid related standstill classification norm. However, on a proforma basis, GNPA ratio was provisions during the quarter largely stable at 3.41% vs. 3.38% (proforma) QoQ. Slippages for the quarter were at | 598 crore vs. | 1089 QoQ (proforma) while write-offs came in at Maintain BUY with revised TP of | 95 | 379 crore vs. | 8 crore QoQ. Total standard restructured book is now at Risk to our call Research | 1618 crore (~1.2% of loans), of which ~| 1409 crore pertains to Covid related stress. Around 70% of restructured book are secured loans. Collection efficiency in April dipped to ~88% from 95% in March due to Slow pick-up in overall credit offtake partial lockdowns. could elongate improvement of return ratios Business traction saw increased momentum on a sequential basis as credit Prolonged impact of pandemic may Equity Retail growth during the quarter came in at 5.1% QoQ to | 131878 crore. This was hurt asset quality – mainly driven by 18.6% YoY and 6.3% QoQ growth in retail advances, in which gold loan saw robust growth of 70% YoY. On the deposit front, growth was at 6.8% QoQ to | 172644 crore. Term deposit growth was higher at 7.9% QoQ vs. CASA growth of 4.7% QoQ. Research Analyst Valuation & Outlook Kajal Gandhi [email protected] Amid a gradual pick-up in advances, focus on operational matrix through Securities ICICI improving margins and cost control is expected to contribute to earnings Vishal Narnolia [email protected] growth. We believe performance on the asset quality front holds the key as it will dictate credit cost requirements as the bank has relatively less buffer. Sameer Sawant However, valuations are benign, which factor in near term concerns. Hence, [email protected] we remain positive at current levels of 0.9xFY23E ABV while RoA, RoE are expected at 1.1%, 14.7%, respectively, by FY23E. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of | 95 (earlier | 90) by valuing the share at 1.1x FY23E ABV. s s Key Financial Summary | crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21-23E) NII 4,176 4,649 5,534 6,453 7,227 14% PPP 2,763 3,205 3,787 4,345 4,930 14% PAT 1,244 1,543 1,590 2,229 2,744 31% ABV (|) 58.6 64.8 71.5 78.6 88.7 P/E 13.1 10.6 10.3 7.3 6.0 P/ABV 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 10.4 13.2 14.7 RoA (%) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Federal Bank ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Comments NII 1,420 1,521 1,216 16.8 1,437 -1.2 Modest sequential growth due to interest on interest reversals NIM (%) 3.23 3.03 3.04 19 bps 3.22 1 bps Other Income 465 444 711 -34.6 482 -3.4 Decline on account of lower treasury inocme Net Total Income 1,886 1,965 1,927 -2.1 1,919 -1.7 Staff cost 525 536 519 1.2 526 -0.1 Other Operating 475 452 449 5.9 430 10.5 Rise on account of increased business activity Expenses PPP 885 977 959 -7.7 963 -8.1 Provision 242 410 568 -57.3 421 -42.4 Provisions decline as Covid provisions get utlilised PBT 643 567 392 64.0 542 18.5 Tax Outgo 165 142 91 82.1 138 19.4 PAT 478 425 301 58.6 404 18.2 Lower credit cost helps profitability Key Metrics GNPA 4,602 4,398 3,531 30.3 3,470 32.6 Largely stable GNPA% on proforma basis NNPA 1,569 1,099 1,607 -2.4 757 107.2 Advances 1,31,879 1,33,272 1,22,268 7.9 1,25,505 5.1 Loan growth driven by retail segment Deposit 1,72,644 1,72,655 1,52,290 13.4 1,61,670 6.8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Interest Income 5,542 6,453 16 5,988 7,227 21 Pre Provision Profit 3,958 4,345 10 4,359 4,930 13 NIM(%) (calculated) 3 3 47 bps 3 3 59 bps PAT 1,992 2,229 12 2,342 2,744 17 ABV per share (|) 75 79 5 81 89 9 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumption Current Earlier FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E Credit growth (%) 10.9 7.9 11.7 13.3 9.0 13.6 13.1 Deposit Growth (%) 12.8 13.4 15.2 15.7 12.5 16.6 16.6 CASA ratio (%) 30.7 33.8 34.2 34.6 32.2 33.1 34.0 NIM Calculated (%) 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 Cost to income ratio (%) 51.3 49.4 49.4 48.6 48.0 49.5 49.5 GNPA (| crore) 3,530.8 4,480.4 4,406.7 4,707.0 4,130.4 4,705.6 5,013.7 NNPA (| crore) 1,607.2 1,849.8 1,875.6 2,025.7 1,904.3 2,464.4 2,952.2 Slippage ratio (%) 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Credit cost (%) 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Federal Bank ICICI Direct Research Story in charts Exhibit 4: Credit growth to pick up from H2FY22 onwards Exhibit 5: Deposit profile 200000 50,000 40 175000 35 40,000 150000 30 125000 30,000 25 166813 20 100000 20,000 (%) 147280 15 (| Crore) (| 131879 (| Crore) (| 10 75000 125505 123437 122912 122268 119222 10,000 115893 113717 110223 5 105550 50000 100941 0 0 25000 FY20 FY21 FY23E 0 FY22E Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY23E FY22E Current Savings Term CASA (RHS) Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 6: Margins to be range bound Exhibit 7: GNPA spike due to removal of standstill 4 4.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 3 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 2 2.4 (%) (%) 1 1.2 0 0.0 Q4FY20 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Q2FY19 Q4FY20 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY19 GNPA (LHS) NNPA (LHS) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 8: Better credit growth, controlled costs to aid RoA FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Net interest income/ avg total assets 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 Non-interest income/ avg total assets 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net total income/ avg total assets 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 Operating expenses/ avg total assets 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 Operating profit/ avg total assets 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Provisions/ avg total assets 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 Return on avg assets 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 Leverage (avg assets/ avg equity) (x) 10.4 11.7 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 Return on equity 8.2 9.8 11.1 10.4 13.2 14.7 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 9: Shareholding Pattern (in %) Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FII 33.3 31.0 24.6 21.7 24.5 DII 37.1 37.2 38.3 44.6 43.3 Others 29.6 31.9 37.0 33.7 32.2 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Federal Bank ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 10: Price Performance 120 18000 16000 100 14000 80 12000 10000 60 8000 40 6000 4000 20 2000 0 0 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 Federal Bank Nifty Index Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 Result Update | Federal Bank ICICI Direct Research Financial summary Exhibit 11: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 12: Key Ratios (Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Interest Earned 11,419.0 13,210.8 13,757.9 15,840.6 17,997.5 Valuation Interest Expended 7242.7 8561.8 8224.2 9388.0 10771.0 No.
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