Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: PCBASIC0185498
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED LOAN
Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF US$93 MILLION
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF PERU
FOR A
LIMA METROPOLITANO NORTH EXTENSION PROJECT (Proyecto Ampliación del Tramo Norte del COSAC I desde la Estación El Naranjal hasta la Av. Chimpu Ocllo, Distritos de Comas y Carabayllo, Provincia de Lima – Lima) Public Disclosure Authorized
December 31, 2019
Transport Global Practice Latin America and Caribbean Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
Public Disclosure Authorized
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 2019
Nuevos Soles Currency Unit = (PEN) PEN 3.30 = US$1 US$1.38 = SDR 1
FISCAL YEAR January 1–December 31
Acting Regional Vice President: J. Humberto Lopez Country Director: Marianne Fay Regional Director: Franz R. Drees-Gross Practice Manager: Juan Gaviria Task Team Leader(s): Lincoln Flor, Sofia Guerrero Gamez
2
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AATE Autonomous Authority for Electric Train AFC Automated Fare Collection system ATU Lima-Callao Urban Transport Authority BRT Bus Rapid Transit CBA Cost-benefit approach CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component COSAC High-capacity Segregated (bus) Corridor CPF Country Partnership Framework General Directorate of Public Investment DGIP Dirección General de Inversión Pública General Directorate of Multi-Annual Investment Programming DGPMI Dirección General de Programación Multianual de Inversiones DLIs Disbursement-linked Indicators SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic EA El Agustino EIAsd Semi-detailed Environmental Impact Assessment ESIA-S Supplemental Environmental and Social Impact Assessment EIRR Economic internal rate of return EMAPE Lima Toll Road Municipal Management Agency EPC Engineering, Procurement, and Construction ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESRS Environmental and Social Review Summary ESCP Environmental and Social Commitment Plan FI Financial Intermediaries FM Financial Management GAP Gender Action Plan GBV Gender- based violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse gases GoP Government of Peru GRM Grievance and Redress Mechanism IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDB Inter-American Development Bank IFC International Finance Corporation IFI International financial institution INDC intended Nationally Determined Contribution LA Loan Agreement LAC Latin America and and the Caribbean Region LMA Lima Metropolitan Area LMP Labor Management Procedure MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance ML Metro Line
3
MFD Maximizing Finance for Development MML Metropolitan Municipality of Lima MTC Ministry of Transport and Communications NPV Net present value NUTP National Urban Transport Policy OSITRAN Transport Infrastructure Regulatory Agency PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit POM Project Operational Manual PPP Public-private partnerships Protransporte BRT Management Public Authority PPVPD Passengers per vehicle per day PWD Persons with disabilities RAP Resettlement Action Plan SEA Sexual exploitation and abuse SEP Stakeholder Engagement Plan SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SJL San Juan de Lurigancho SOP Series of Projects SRP Sinchi Roca Park TCC Technical Coordination Committee TCU Technical Coordination Unit VOC Vehicle operating costs
4
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... 1 DATASHEET ...... 1 I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...... 7 A. Country Context...... 7 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ...... 8 C. Relevance to Higher-Level Objectives ...... 10 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ...... 11 A. Project Development Objective ...... 11 B. Project Components ...... 12 C. Project Beneficiaries ...... 13 D. Results Chain ...... 13 E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners...... 13 F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ...... 14 III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ...... 17 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ...... 17 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements...... 18 C. Sustainability ...... 18 IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ...... 19 A. Technical, Economic, and Financial Analysis ...... 19 B. Fiduciary ...... 21 C. Legal Operational Policies ...... 22 D. Environmental and Social ...... 22 E. Gender ...... 24 F. Grievance Redress Mechanisms ...... 26 V. KEY RISKS ...... 27 VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ...... 30 Annex 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan ...... 66 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description ...... 78 Annex 3: Job Accessibility Analysis for the North Extension of Lima Metropolitano BRT . 85 Annex 4: Economic Analysis ...... 91 Annex 5. Status of Integrating Corporate and Transport Commitments ...... 100
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 6. Maps ...... 101 References ...... 104
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
DATASHEET
BASIC INFORMATION BASIC_INFO_TABLE Country(ies) Project Name
Peru Lima Metropolitano BRT North Extension
Project ID Financing Instrument Environmental and Social Risk Classification
Investment Project P170595 Substantial Financing
Financing & Implementation Modalities
[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)
[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s)
[ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s)
[ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country
[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster
[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA)
Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date
30-Jan-2020 31-Jan-2023
Bank/IFC Collaboration Joint Level
Yes Complementary or Interdependent project requiring active coordination
Proposed Development Objective(s)
The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve urban mobility and accessibility to jobs in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Components
Component Name Cost (US$, millions)
Page 1 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
BRT infrastructure and equipment 117.00
Project management and environmental and social management 6.00
Organizations
Borrower: Republic of Peru Implementing Agency: Metropolitan Municipality of Lima with the assistance of EMAPE
PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)
SUMMARY-NewFin1
Total Project Cost 123.00
Total Financing 123.00
of which IBRD/IDA 93.00
Financing Gap 0.00
DETAILS-NewFinEnh1
World Bank Group Financing
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 93.00
Non-World Bank Group Financing
Counterpart Funding 30.00
Borrower/Recipient 30.00
Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)
WB Fiscal Year 2020 2021 2022 2023
Annual 25.00 54.00 14.00 0.00
Cumulative 25.00 79.00 93.00 93.00
INSTITUTIONAL DATA
Page 2 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas Transport Climate Change, Gender, Infrastructure, PPP's & Guarantees
Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks
SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)
Risk Category Rating
1. Political and Governance ⚫ Low
2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Low
3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate
4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate
5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Moderate
6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial
7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial
8. Stakeholders ⚫ Substantial
9. Other
10. Overall ⚫ Substantial
COMPLIANCE
Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [✓] No
Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? [ ] Yes [✓] No
Page 3 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal
E & S Standards Relevance
Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant
Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant
Labor and Working Conditions Relevant
Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant
Community Health and Safety Relevant
Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant
Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural Relevant Resources
Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional Not Currently Relevant Local Communities
Cultural Heritage Relevant
Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant
NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS).
Legal Covenants
Sections and Description 1.The Borrower, through MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, shall:
(a) create and maintain, throughout Project implementation, a structure within EMAPE (the TCU) with the responsibility to assist in the implementation, monitoring and supervision of the technical aspects of the Project (including its procurement and environmental and social aspects), with adequate fiduciary, administrative, monitoring and evaluation and technical personnel, as set forth in the Operational Manual, all acceptable to the Bank; (b) not later than ninety (90) days after Effective Date, hire two financial management specialists (one for MML PIU and one for the TCU), a senior procurement specialist, and a technical specialist for the TCU, all with qualifications and experience and under terms of reference acceptable to the Bank. (Section I. A. 3 (a) and (b), Schedule 2 of the LA)
Page 4 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Sections and Description 2. The Borrower shall establish by no later than ninety (90) days after Effective Date, and thereafter operate and maintain throughout Project implementation, a Technical Coordination Committee (the “TCC”); which committee shall have membership, functions and responsibilities), resources and competencies, all acceptable to the Bank as defined in the Operational Manual (section I. A. 4 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 3. Prior to the carrying out of any Project activity under the jurisdiction of a Participating Municipality, cause EMAPE to enter into an agreement with the pertinent Participating Municipality (“Municipal Inter-institutional Agreement”), under terms and conditions approved by the Bank, which shall include, inter alia, the obligation of each Participating Municipality to take or permit to be taken all actions to enable EMAPE to carry out, and provide the necessary technical and institutional support for the timely preparation and implementation of the relevant Project activity (section I. B. 1 (a) of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 4. The Borrower, through MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, shall carry out the Project in accordance with the provisions of a manual (the Operational Manual), satisfactory to the Bank, which shall include, inter alia:
(a) the organizational structure of the Project, including the structure and terms of reference of personnel in charge of the implementation of the Project; (b) the structure and functions and responsibilities of the MML PIU, TCC and TCU, (including the qualifications and experience and terms of reference of their staff) and financial resources; (c) the procedures for the carrying out, monitoring and evaluation of the Project; (d) the indicators for Project monitoring and evaluation; (e) the Project procurement and financial management requirements and procedures; and (f) the Project’s chart of accounts and internal controls (section I. C. 1 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 5. The Borrower, through MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, shall ensure that the Project is carried out in accordance with the Environmental and Social Standards, in a manner acceptable to the Bank (section I. D. 1 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 6. The Borrower, through MML, shall furnish to the Bank and to DGPMI each Project Report not later than forty-five (45) days after the end of each calendar semester, covering the calendar semester (section II. 1 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 7. By August 31, 2021, or such other date as the Bank shall agree upon, the Borrower, through MML, with the assistance of EMAPE shall: (a) carry out, jointly with the Bank, a mid-term review, which shall cover the progress achieved in the implementation of the Project; and (b) following such mid-term review, act promptly and diligently to take any corrective action as shall be agreed by the Bank (section V. 1 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description
Page 5 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
9. No later than one hundred and eighty days (180) days after the works and equipment under Part 1 of the Project have been completed and provided, the Borrower, through MML, shall complete the integration between the Metropolitano BRT North Extension and the Metropolitano BRT, under terms and in a manner acceptable to the Bank (section V. 3 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Sections and Description 8. No later than March 31, 2021, the Borrower, through MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, shall hire an entity (with qualifications and experience and under terms of reference, all acceptable to the Bank) to upgrade the bus operational programing and operations systems to integrate the Metropolitano BRT with the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, under terms and in a manner acceptable to the Bank (section V. 2 of Schedule 2 to the LA).
Conditions
Type Description Effectiveness All the following conditions
(a) the Operational Manual has been adopted by the MML in a manner acceptable to the Bank; and
(b) The Environmental and Social Management Instruments are finalized and, thereafter, adopted by the MML, in a manner acceptable to the Bank.
Page 6 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT
A. Country Context
1. Peru has experienced sustained growth and significant poverty reduction over the past 10 years. However, inequality remains a major challenge. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been the primary driver of poverty reduction in Peru. Between 2008 and 2018, the average GDP growth rate was 4.4 percent, while the poverty rate decreased substantially from 37.2 to 20.5 percent. Economic growth is expected to level off close to 4 percent in 2019-21. Inequality (based on the Gini coefficient) decreased from 0.50 to 0.43 between 2007 and 2017. This inequality is more pronounced for groups with combined vulnerabilities, such as women in low-income areas. 2. Peru is located in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an area where 90 percent of the world’s earthquakes occur. High seismic risk is associated with potential tsunamis. The effects of these natural events have been exacerbated by climate change and a lack of resilient infrastructure investment in a very complex Peruvian geography. 3. Urbanization and internal migration rates in Peru have been high for several decades. About 78 percent of Peru’s population of 32 million lives in urban areas with nearly 30 percent located in the Lima Metropolitan Area (LMA) (10.28 million in 2019)1. Since the 1950s, the LMA has attracted most of the migration. A recent wave of migration brought a significant number of Venezuelan immigrants to Peru, more than 700,000 of whom settled in the LMA. 4. The LMA consists of 49 districts in five special development zones: Lima Norte (North Lima), Lima Este (East Lima), Constitutional Province of Callao, Lima Centro (Central Lima), and Lima Sur (South Lima) (See Annex 6). The LMA stretches north to south for 80 kilometers along the Pacific Ocean, and from west to east for 40 kilometers from the Pacific Ocean to the Andean mountain range. The ocean and mountains limit the expansion of the city longitudinally, as a result further expansion is constrained. North Lima’s districts2 cover a significant portion of the LMA—about 836 square kilometers—and have a population density of 2,494 people per square kilometer. 5. Lima is Peru’s main center of trade, industry, and services, but prosperity has not reached all geographical areas equally and large pockets of urban poverty persist. The LMA accounts for 49 percent of the national GDP and includes Peru’s leading facilities for international trade and domestic logistics. There are about 1.4 million jobs in the LMA which are concentrated in Central Lima3. A significant percentage of the job market and economic activities is informal, as are the informal street vendors spread out across different districts of the LMA. Despite this remarkable concentration of economic activity in the LMA, urban poverty in the districts of North Lima is higher than national and Lima averages. With a total population of 2.5 million, North Lima has the highest population density in Lima, 1.6 times the overall population density in the city.
1 Source: National Institute of Statistics (INEI). https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/poblacion-y-vivienda/ 2 Carabayllo, Ancón, Puente Piedra, San Martín de Porres, Santa Rosa, Comas, Independencia and Los Olivos. 3 INEI.
Page 7 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context
6. The inefficient and unaffordable urban transport services are the main factors hampering access of the poor to services, markets, and jobs in the LMA spatial development zones. Low-income households4 live predominantly in North Lima (and other urban peripheric areas), with poor access to centers where jobs, education, health, and other services are concentrated (see Map 6A.1). Consequently, they must make a considerable investment in terms of time and money to reach these destinations. Almost 73 percent of the LMA’s population commutes by public transport, amounting to 12.1 million daily trips. There is limited supply to serve this demand. The system includes 560 routes operated by some 32,000 buses, microbuses, and vans (combis). There is also a limited mass transit network (see Map 6A.2). Nearly 91 percent of the commuters do not have access to safe, clean, and affordable public transport services. There is a lack of infrastructure and facilities such as priority lanes, terminals, or adequate stops5. Major transport corridors are severely congested and have lower travel speeds and higher negative externalities6 such as loss of productive time, higher vehicle operating costs (VOC), higher local and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and road safety issues. Congestion costs are estimated at 1.8 percent of Peru’s GDP (El Comercio, 2019)7. The cost of road traffic injuries and fatalities is estimated at 4.5 percent of the GDP8. 7. Limited coverage, lack of integration between the mass transit system and feeder services, institutional fragmentation, negatively affect the LMA’s ability to realize its economic potential in a socially inclusive manner. The mass transit network includes: (a) the first Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridor (Metropolitano BRT) implemented through Protransporte (Instituto Metropolitano Protransporte de Lima), an agency of the Metropolitan Municipality of Lima (MML) between 2004 and 2010 with World Bank support9; and (b) an elevated rail line implemented by the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MTC) in 2010 (a Metro Line 1—ML 1— or Tren Eléctrico). Metropolitano BRT and ML 1 carry about one million trips per day (9 percent of all trips). The Metropolitano BRT line began commercial operations in 2011 with a 26-kilometer north-south corridor crossing the historic center of Lima and covering 12 municipalities. ML 1, a 34.6-kilometer, north-south elevated rail transit line (on a different alignment than Metropolitano BRT) began commercial operations in 2010. Since December 2010, the Government of Peru (GoP), seeking to expand the mass transit network, has approved the Metro Network Plan for Lima and Callao (Supreme Decree N° 059-2010-MTC), which includes five lines that increase the proposed length of the total network to 168 kilometers. The Lima Metro Line 2 (ML 2) is under construction with support from international financial institutions (IFIs), including the World Bank 10. Phase 1 of ML2 is expected to start operating in 2021, Phase 2 in 2023, and Phase 3 in 2024. Lima Metro Line 3 (ML 3) and Metro Line 4 (ML4) are projected to start operations after 2030, both are currently in the conceptual stage with plans to call for bids in 2020 (see Annex 6A.2 for a map of Lima’s current and planned transit network). 8. The current Metropolitano BRT is a high-performance system in need of further optimization. Even though the BRTs currently operates at capacity during peak hours there are opportunities to increase capacity at specific
4 The INEI distinguishes the socioeconomic levels by per capita income: A (upper class): S/.2,192.20 or more; B (upper middle class): S/.1,330.10 to S/.2,192.19; C (middle class): S/.899.00-S/.1,330.09; D (lower middle class): S/.575.70-S/.898.99; E (lower class): S/.575.69 or less (2017 definition). The terms “lower income population” and “lower socioeconomic levels” are used to refer to the sum of the population from socioeconomic levels D and E. 5 Ibid. 6 See analyses by INRIX, TomTom index, and Moovit. http://www.tomtom.com/traffic-index. 7 Thirty-eight percent of the working class loses 90 minutes per day while commuting because of congestion (Unidad de Análisis Económico El Comercio, 2019). Elcomercio.pe 8 An unofficial Global Road Safety Facility estimate. 9 Peru Lima Transport Project (P035740). 10 Peru Lima Metro Line 2 Project (P145610)
Page 8 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
segments and allow for a more efficient use of the bus fleet. The current Metropolitano BRT infrastructure has exceeded its demand forecasts due to: (a) higher level of service compared to conventional modes; and (b) better alignment connecting the densely populated districts with the city’s jobs, located mainly in Central and North Lima. With its current infrastructure, the Metropolitano BRT carries nearly 700,000 trips per day, of which 500,000 trips occur solely in the trunk corridor. Thirty-one percent of the total users of the Metropolitano BRT fall in the low-income categories11. The Metropolitano BRT is operated with trunk and feeder buses, operated under Public Private Partnership (PPP) contracts, including, 300 of the 18-meter articulated natural gas buses deployed on 11 routes along the BRT corridor12 to date. The system also includes an extensive feeder bus network operated by 222 buses that connect neighborhoods on the urban periphery around Terminal Naranjal in North Lima and Terminal Matellini in South Lima to the high-capacity trunk corridor. Compared to other mature BRT (Transmilenio, Bogota, Colombia) Operational key performance indicators (KPI) of the Metropolitano BRT reflect the system’s high capacity and high operational standards. Design standards of the Metropolitano BRT contemplate 1,935 Passengers per Vehicle per Day (PPVPD)1314 while its current average level of service remains under 1,700 PPVPD. Service operation ratios (i.e., trips completed/trips scheduled) are consistently above 97 percent, and the passenger-kilometer index is steady at 9.2. The passengers per hour per direction index (PPHPD) reaches 23,000 at the highest loaded segment. The entire trunk fleet is at its mechanical midlife15. 9. Terminal Naranjal in North Lima is the most congested station on the Metropolitano BRT, originating 18 percent of the system’s daily trips16 with 42 percent of its users falling in low-income categories. Around 35 percent of Terminal Naranjal’s passengers arrive at the station on any of the eight existing feeder routes, while the rest arrive by foot and other last-mile informal modes. Overall, the concentration of passengers at Terminal Naranjal exceeds the infrastructure capacity at peak hours, resulting in user queues and boarding wait times in excess of 10 minutes at critical times of the day. The Terminal Naranjal is one of the bottlenecks of the system, and the expansion of the corridor to the north under the proposed project would improve overall efficiency at this station, add capacity, and increase coverage to the north, where 32 percent of the trips already originate in feeder lines. The expansion to the north would have a positive impact on different groups of the population. For instance, surveys of female of public transport users, who live in the periphery of northern Lima show that they disproportionately use informal transport services, which have a larger coverage area and address an unsatisfied demand. 10. Three recent institutional reforms provide the critical legal framework to develop the urban transport system in an integrated and sustainable way. These include the creation of the Lima-Callao Urban Transport Authority (Autoridad de Transporte Urbano para Lima y Callao, or ATU) in December 2018, the approval of the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP) in April 2019, and the adoption of the Urban Transport Subsidy Policy in July 2019. These reforms make significant strides towards urban transport integration. Based on the legal and institutional framework, the ATU will be responsible for urban transport planning, integration, infrastructure provision, service concession, permitting and fare policy, including fare setting. The ATU has an ambitious delivery schedule in the short term, including: (a) the institutional, physical, operational, and fare integration17 of the Metropolitano BRT,
11 Protransporte, surveys at Terminals Naranjal and Grau database, June 2019. 12 In addition to the 522 natural gas buses (300 articulated and 222 feeder buses), one electric bus is being tested as a pilot in a section of complementary corridors. 13 A vehicle used in public transportation, with one or two-decker, and comprises two or more rigid sections. This vehicle runs in the trunk of the BRT corridor. 14 PPP contract for transport provision. 15 In accordance with Peruvian law, the maximum age of public service vehicles is 20 years. 16 Protransporte. Feasibility study approved by the government. 17 In 2015, a basic integration model was developed with World Bank support. This model, which can be escalated and updated, includes a social fare.
Page 9 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
metro lines, and two proposed urban cable car systems in San Juan de Lurigancho (SJL) integrating the Metropolitano BRT and ML 1, and El Agustino (EA), integrating ML 1 and ML 2; and (b) the design and implementation of a financial sustainability strategy for the integrated transport network. Since the ATU has just started operating, the construction and operation of the BRT has been delegated to the MML. Building strong institutional capacity at the ATU to enable it managing all assigned responsibilities is expected to take several years. The World Bank has been supporting this process since early 2019 to accelerate learning at the ATU (see paragraph 20) and is already discussing a possible program of comprehensive TA and lending support for its further development. 11. The proposed project would extend the Metropolitano BRT in North Lima to overcome the challenges related to mobility and access to jobs18, especially for low-income residents in this area. The proposed extension would connect the densely populated and predominantly low-income districts of North Lima with job centers in Central Lima. In addition, the proposed extension would integrate districts in Central and South Lima with North Lima that is an emerging economic center and is expected to attract more jobs and people in the coming years (see Annex 6 for a map of the proposed extension). C. Relevance to Higher-Level Objectives
12. The proposed project would support the World Bank Group’s strategic engagement in Peru and is consistent with the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY17-FY21 dated April 10, 201719 and the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) dated February 201720. The proposed project will support CPF Pillar I, “Connecting the Poor to the Services and Markets”, in particular, Objective 2.2. “Increase mobility and road network both in urban and rural areas” including the access for persons with disabilities, which are often excluded from the labor market21. In accordance with the CPF, the proposed project would address gender disparities by contributing to efforts to improve women’s access to effective and safer urban transport, as well as reduce employment gaps by progressively contributing to increase female labor participation in the transport sector. Currently, 48.5 percent of the Metropolitano BRT’s users are women. The female/male ratio employed in the urban transport sector is only 0.15, showing a significant gap. Further, in accordance with the CPF, the proposed project would support the GoP’s strategic priorities in the National Plan 2016-21, including closing the connectivity gap and providing more and better opportunities for the poor. Finally, the proposed project would contribute to reducing GHG emissions through improving transport system efficiency and shifting from private cars to the BRT. Hence, the project would also support Pillar 3 of the CPF related to climate change management and Peru’s intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC).
13. In addition, the proposed project would contribute to:
(a) The World Bank Group’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity by focusing on districts in North Lima that are characterized by high levels of poverty and poor access to urban transport services and jobs. (b) Enabling human capital formation by providing safe and inclusive access to jobs (as well as education and health services), and increasing mobility, especially for low-income users in North Lima.
18 Thirty-four percent of daily trips are related to access to jobs (Protransporte 2015). 19 Report # 112299-PE (2017). 20 Report # 112694-PE (2017). 21 p. 21 of the CPF (Peru).
Page 10 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
(c) Maximizing finance for development by unlocking private solutions to improve BRT operations in the long term. Since 2008, Protransporte, on behalf of the MML, has signed six PPP contracts for the Metropolitano BRT operations, including four with transport operators, one for the provision of natural gas, and one for automatic fare collection (AFC) system. The proposed project will provide an opportunity for commercial financing to support transport operators and bus providers to renew part of the natural gas fleet (e.g., electric buses or new natural gas buses) for the Metropolitano BRT corridor. This would include new electric charging stations in the bus depot of the Metropolitano BRT.
II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Development Objective
PDO Statement
The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve urban mobility and accessibility to jobs in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension22.
PDO Level Indicators
Outcome Outcome Indicator Improve urban mobility in the area of • In-vehicle travel time for public transport users between Terminal Chimpu influence of the Metropolitano BRT Ocllo and Terminal Naranjal (minutes) North Extension • Passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, differentiated by socioeconomic levels and gender (number) o Low-income passengers as % of total validations entering the northern terminals in the Metropolitano BRT system (percentage) o Women passengers per day as % of total validations on the Metropolitano BRT North extension (feeder and trunk buses) (percentage) o Women passengers shifting from informal transport to the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, as % of total surveyed women (percentage) • Beneficiaries satisfied with the service in the northern BRT extension (coverage, reliability, safety and personal security), differentiated by socioeconomic level and gender (percentage) o Change in female passengers satisfied with service in terms of safety, security (percentage) Improve accessibility to jobs in the area Average number of jobs reachable by public transportation within a 60-minute, of influence of the Metropolitano BRT one-way commute in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North North Extension Extension (number)
22 The area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension is defined as the districts of Comas, Los Olivos, Independencia, and the urban areas of Carabayllo.
Page 11 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
B. Project Components
14. The proposed project will be implemented under two components 23: 15. Component 1: BRT infrastructure and equipment (civil works, traffic lights, technological component, supervision; road safety and universal access; and preoperational component and route management) (US$ 92 million IBRD and US$25 million MML). This component will reduce the travel time, improve access to jobs and quality of services for the Metropolitano North Extension BRT users. The project will finance the: (a) Provision of support for the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (US$ 90 million IBRD and US$24 million MML) , including, inter alia: (i) (1) construction of 10.2 kilometers of segregated busways between Terminal Naranjal (located within the territorial jurisdictions of the Municipalities of Independencia, Comas and Carabayllo) and the new Terminal Chimpu Ocllo (located within the territorial jurisdiction of the Municipality of Carabayllo), 17 passenger stations, 21 pedestrian crossings, two pedestrian footbridges, and one bus terminal; (2) expansion of the existing bus depot (located in the Sinchi Roca Park); (3) installation of road safety signaling; and (4) upgrading of the wastewater treatment plant and installation of a technified irrigation system; (ii) installation of equipment and technology to support BRT operations and traffic control; (iii) carrying out of complementary works for the removal of utilities by replacing water and sanitation mains in some intersections of the extended corridor mentioned herein; (iv) implementation of environmental and social instruments; and (v) carrying out of supervision of the works and services mentioned in (i) through (iv) herein. The travel lanes, stations, bridges, and bus terminal will be implemented with consideration for road safety, personal security, gender and universal accessibility, including for economically disadvantaged groups, women, and people with disabilities. In addition, project designs will incorporate best practices in climate change mitigation and adaptation. (b) Optimization of the Metropolitano BRT operations and services (US$2 million IBRD and US$1 million MML), including inter alia: (i) the preparation of a pre-operational plan for the integration of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension to the current Metropolitano BRT system; (ii) optimization of a services plan and scheduling of feeder routes; (iii) the development of a personalization module for the Metropolitano BRT integrated smart card system; (iv) the provision of software for bus programming; (v) the development of operational performance indicators; (vi) the carrying out of quality of services surveys; and (vii) the provision of training, preparation of emergency plans and testing and calibration of the Metropolitano BRT operations.
16. Component 2: Project Management and Environmental and Social Management. (US$1 million IBRD and US$5 million MML). Supporting project implementation in the areas of: (a) Project management, including inter alia: (i) institutional/technical strengthening of the MML PIU and the TCU; (ii) hiring of Project staff; (iii) carrying out of financial management (including Project audits), procurement, disbursement, monitoring and evaluation activities; and (iv) carrying out of assessments on the Project indicators measuring performance and road safety. (b) Environmental and social management, including inter alia: (i) implementation of the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) and the management tools and instruments referred to therein (including the provision of financing of Resettlement Expenditures); (ii) provision of Training to support the implementation of the Environmental and Social Standards and on international good practices to mitigate environmental and social risks; and (iii) development and implementation of a Gender Action Plan (GAP) for MML with concrete actions to address women’s mobility barriers and employment in the Metropolitano BRT.
23 See more details in Section II.D and Annexes 2 and 4.
Page 12 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
C. Project Beneficiaries
17. Project beneficiaries and focus. The proposed World Bank-financed project is expected to: (a) benefit 1,460,000 residents of four districts in North Lima (Los Olivos, Independencia, Comas, and the urban areas of Carabayllo) – the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension; and (b) result in 150,653 new trips per day in North Lima. Low-income users living in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension will be the target beneficiaries.
D. Results Chain
E. Rationale for World Bank Involvement and Role of Partners
18. The proposed project would improve the operational efficiency, and quality of service, including personal security of low-income users, women, and persons with disabilities (PWD). In addition to the works, the proposed project will finance equipment and activities (Components 1b. and 2b.) to improve operations and quality of service on the Metropolitano BRT system, in particular, projects activities would be expected to reduce wait times and improve safety for low-income, representing 42 percent of the total users targeted by the Metropolitano North
Page 13 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Extension between the Naranjal and Chimpu Ocllo Terminals. Gender mobility and services for PWD would be strengthened, as a result of improve, accessibility and violence prevention at stations and buses services.
19. The proposed project has been prepared under the World Bank’s new Environmental and Social Framework (ESF). The ESF will contribute to better mitigate the risks faced by the original Metropolitano BRT project24. This is the first time that the new ESF has been applied in an infrastructure project in Peru. The new framework provides more robust support to the Borrower in mitigating the project’s environmental and social (ES) risks and impacts throughout the project’s life cycle based on international standards, proportionated to the project’s nature and scale and the potential risks and impacts. The proposed project will benefit from the ESF by the improvement of institutional capacity of the Borrower including a more effective citizen participation through permanent consultation. This would reduce the risks of claims or potential inspection panels, improve the MML response and capacity to manage claims and increase the sustainability of the project implementation. In addition, lesson from this project will be critical for the planned urban cable-car series of projects, currently under preparation (P170609).
20. The project would support building ATU’s capacity as a critical part of the World Bank’s ongoing engagement in the transport sector, assisting the GoP’s implementing an ambitious urban transport reform. The World Bank is supporting activities to build the ATU’s capacity. The World Bank is supporting the establishment of the ATU and helps reflecting good global practices in developing institutional capacity to manage the implementation of large urban transport operations, including the Lima Metro Line 2 Project (P145610) and the planned urban cable cars. The World Bank is currently supporting the ATU in three key areas: (a) governance of urban public transport integration; (b) establishment of an urban transport authority with a clear mandate and practices; and (c) improvements in stakeholder communication. In addition to the proposed project, the GoP has requested financial support from the World Bank for a new mode of urban transport based on cable cars (in SJL and EA areas) that will connect the Metropolitano BRT with the Metro Line I, which will help to better integrate urban public transport in Lima. F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design
21. Lessons learned from the first phase of the Metropolitano BRT and similar mass transit corridor projects in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region have been integrated into the project design as follows: (a) Improving mobility and accessibility for the poor through BRT systems requires an efficient alignment and effective integration of the main corridor with the feeder services and other public transport systems that are closer to passenger origins and destinations. The demand study and engineering designs of the extended BRT approved by the GoP in 2018 include: (i) 10.2 kilometers of alignment to serve low-income districts in North Lima; (ii) a high-capacity feeder system that will be integrated with the trunk corridor; and (iii) an enhanced trunk and feeder service and scheduling operational plan, including a plan for the optimization, reorganization, and rebalancing of the feeder routes to be carried out by Protransporte25. The proposed project will provide finance to support vital preoperational activities to ensure the BRT and feeder service plan and scheduling procedures are optimized and tuned to the enhanced physical capacity of the system. These activities include the implementation of state-of-the-art scheduling software, support for the optimization
24 Lima Transport Project (P035740). 25 Increasing trunk services relative to feeder services will rebalance the incentive structure of the project. Metropolitano was criticized for allocating too little demand risk to feeder services (Gómez-Lobo and Briones 2014). This will be partially solved by the extension of the trunk corridor.
Page 14 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
and calibration of the service and scheduling plans, data gathering and KPI calculation and monitoring, and specialized training to enhance institutional and technical capacity at the BRT operations department in charge of running the Metropolitano BRT, including the North Extension. As a result of the project, the share of low-income passengers on the Metropolitano BRT in North Lima is estimated to increase from 31 percent to 42 percent.
(b) Extensive and continued consultation are of paramount importance. Sufficient information, consultation, and engagement with key stakeholders (including residents and municipalities) will mitigate the risk of conflict and delays. The original Metropolitano BRT project26 reportedly provided insufficient information to residents of the Municipality of Barranco (one of the 12 municipalities that were involved in the project). This, combined with complaints about the traffic impact evaluation supported by the project and its traffic management strategy and mitigation mechanisms, resulted in a complaint and an Inspection Panel investigation in 2009, all of which delayed project implementation. In addition, the trees removed in 2009 for the construction of the bus depot in the Sinchi Roca Park (SRP) area (7.8 hectares) were not relocated or compensated to the district of Comas, and this situation has created a legacy that needs to be addressed by MML. The proposed project has incorporated this experience and is engaging and consulting stakeholders at an early stage, in particular, municipalities, communities, groups, and individuals affected by the proposed works, and will provide project-based grievance redress mechanisms (GRMs). In addition, a legal due diligence conducted by the Bank found that the legal habilitation for the expansion of the bus depot in 2.2 hectares of the SRP areas follows the current legal framework. Under the proposed project:
(i) A stronger citizen engagement approach based on the ESF—this includes instruments such as the Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP), including consultations, GRMs, beneficiary engagement surveys, and institutional agreements with local municipalities—has been incorporated into the project design and the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP). Based on the SEP, all the initial consultations have been completed during appraisal. Feedback has been integrated into draft risk-mitigation plans, including collaboration agreements for project implementation with three of the four municipalities27. The ESCP includes a green area plan for tree relocation and the replanting of new trees along the BRT North expansion corridor28 and in areas near the bus depot in the SRP and other areas in agreement with the municipality of Comas29. The plan also includes job opportunities for residents in the project area. The Lima Toll Road Municipal Management Agency (Empresa Municipal Administradora de Peajes de Lima or EMAPE)30 has agreed to assign staff to work in the project area to interact with the residents and authorities, and to disseminate information about the project. Surveys will be used to collect, record, and report on inputs or feedback received from beneficiaries about the coverage, service surveys, safety, personal security, and reliability of the BRT transport services.
26 Lima Transport Project (P035740). 27 Independencia, Comas, and Carabayllo. 28 Around 1,522 trees along the planned BRT extension will need to be relocated to Bosque de Ancón (the Ancon forest) by EMAPE before civil works start. Upon completion of the works, the contractor will plant 1,981 new trees along the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. The project will finance a technified irrigation system and an upgrade of the current wastewater plant, which will supply the irrigation system with treated effluent. 29 The results framework of the project includes an intermediate indicator. There is a legacy on the reduction of green areas since 2009, associated to the construction of the north bus depot for the original Metropolitano BRT. 30 The Lima Toll Road Municipal Management Agency (Empresa Municipal Administradora de Peajes de Lima, or EMAPE) was created in 1986 to manage the urban toll roads of the MML and the development and maintenance of the urban transport infrastructure of the MML.
Page 15 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
(ii) The MML will conduct regular consultations with key stakeholders (thematic areas include: tree relocation activities, green areas, universal access, gender mobility, among others). A plan for organizing targeted workshops, interviews, and events was agreed with the Borrower in the ESCP. (iii) The traffic management plan provides road safety recommendations in line with ISO 3900131. Based on these recommendations, the contractor will be responsible for collecting the necessary field data to update the detour and traffic management plan. The plan also includes specific traffic measures for the adequate rerouting of public and private transportation that currently operate in the corridor of intervention. The World Bank has carried out a road safety audit of the engineering designs. The recommendations have been incorporated in the designs and into the bidding documents in order to be implemented during construction. (iv) The SEP includes grievance redress as a citizen engagement mechanism. The Borrower agencies have existing mechanisms to receive complaints, but they will be strengthened under project implementation. In addition, the results framework includes the indicator: “Citizens reporting satisfaction with key aspects of the consultation process, disintegrated by gender” (information available, facilities, facilitation, location, language, etc.). (c) Street vendors need to be relocated based on a participatory approach that is beneficial to them. The proposed project will follow the best practice set by the original Metropolitano BRT project, going beyond the safeguard requirements at that time, in mitigating the project’s impact on merchants located in the project area. Under the original Metropolitano BRT project, merchants from the flower market located in the project area were compensated or relocated. Protransporte supported these vendors in finding a new place, obtaining credit, and purchasing land, building the new market and capacity-building activities for small business management. The new flower market is fully operational and is generating income for vendors. There are 504 street vendors located in the vicinity of the BRT North Extension in the Municipality of Comas. The MML has completed the following actions: (i) a proposal for relocation options and a communications strategy to engage with the vendors and initial consultations, (ii) a census of all the vendors, including their characteristics and expectations and (c) a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) has been prepared, consulted by the Borrower, and cleared by the World Bank. Loan resources will support the implementation of key RAP activities, including a compensation program and monitoring of the vendors’ business after the relocation. (d) Key lessons from the implementation of universal mobility projects in Lima have been incorporated in the proposed project32. Since 2012, the World Bank has supported the universal mobility agenda and the capacity of the MML. One pilot BRT station, Dos de Mayo, was designed and built with universal mobility/access considerations. Organizations for PWD were consulted on their specific needs. This station has become a model to be replicated. These lessons were translated into practical recommendations for BRT and Metro projects. In addition, capacity building for Protransporte and MTC has improved their knowledge of and commitment to the provision of inclusive urban transport. Peru’s Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation has strengthened regulations to ensure that urban transport infrastructure designs include universal mobility/access considerations. The World Bank has carried out the universal access assessment of the designs of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. Relevant recommendations have been included in the designs and the bidding documents. Finally, the designs include the lessons and comply with national regulations and international best practices. The assessment has focused, in particular, on the design of pedestrian crossings, access to stations, elevators for people with disabilities, pedestrian bridges, appropriate signaling, fare collection infrastructure, and equipment to support PWD during emergencies.
31 International standard specifies requirements for a road traffic management system. 32 A US$2.5 million financed by the Policy and Human Resources Development (PHRD) grant (TF11295) under the project, Mainstreaming Inclusive Design and Universal Mobility, in Lima (P129561).
Page 16 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
(e) Insufficient implementation arrangements and limited capacity to implement BRT projects in other cities in Latin America caused implementation delays, contract disputes, and reputational risk to city administrations. The project design reflects these lessons in the following ways: (i) the World Bank supports the ATU in implementing activities in key areas to advance urban transport integration in accordance with the National Urban Transport Policy; (ii) to avoid an overlap of responsibilities and reduce a lack of coordination and ineffective decision-making, it has been agreed with the GoP that the Project Operational Manual (POM) includes the requirement of appointing a strong core team in the Project Implementation Union (PIU) (at the MML) and Technical Implementation Unit (at the EMAPE), including Environmental and Social (ES) specialists, and of setting up a Technical Coordination Committee (TCC) that will include the MML, Protransporte, the ATU and EMAPE; and (iii) to ensure sufficient institutional capacity, the proposed project will finance a supervisor to oversee the civil works contract.
III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
22. Since the ATU was only recently established, it has delegated the implementation of the proposed project to the MML (see Table 1). Peru’s Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) will be the Borrower and responsible for the allocation of loan resources to the MML’s annual budget. The MML will create and maintain a Project Implementation Unit (MML PIU). The MML PIU will be responsible for implementing, monitoring, and supervising the works and the financial management aspects of the project. It will have adequate fiduciary, administrative, and technical personnel, as set forth in the POM. EMAPE will provide technical assistance to the MML. The MML and EMAPE will create and maintain, throughout project implementation, a Technical Coordination Unit (TCU) within EMAPE which will be responsible for assisting in the implementation, monitoring, and supervision of the project (including its procurement and environmental and social aspects), with adequate fiduciary, administrative, monitoring and evaluation, and technical personnel, as set forth in the POM. The TCU will provide technical assistance to the MML to procure and supervise the works under the ESF standards, as set forth in the POM. Once the project activities are completed, the TCU’s responsibilities will expire, and the BRT’s assets will be transferred to be managed by the ATU or Protransporte (in case this agency has not been absorbed by the ATU). Transition from the current institutional arrangements and building capacity in the ATU is expected to occur during a ramping-up period over the coming years (see organogram and detailed roles in Annex 1).
Table 1: Institutional arrangements Delegation Implementation Operation Assignor Assignee/obligator Borrower’s PIU Technical Assistance representative ATU X MML X X MEF X EMAPE -TCU X Protransporte X Source: Based in the project institutional arrangements for the project
Page 17 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
23. Interinstitutional and cooperation agreements have been signed for the implementation of the proposed project. The following agreements were signed prior to negotiations: (a) a delegation agreement between the ATU and the MML for project implementation, including fiduciary responsibilities; and (b) cooperation agreements between EMAPE and the municipalities of Independencia, Comas, and Carabayllo. The obligation of each municipality is to take action or allow actions to be taken that enable EMAPE to carry out and provide the necessary technical and institutional support for the timely preparation and implementation of the project.
24. The MML, with assistance from EMAPE, will hire a project coordinator and the core team to lead the implementation of the proposed project. The MML, with assistance from EMAPE, will hire key senior staff, including qualified Environmental and Social (ES) specialists (as detailed in the POM and ESCP), to support preconstruction and construction activities, the implementation of the ESCP, compliance with the environmental and social instruments, and to facilitate the participation of municipalities and communities. The construction and supervision firms will be required to hire ES specialists.
25. A Technical Coordination Committee (TCC) will be set up and led by the MML. The MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will set up a TCC to organize and coordinate the project activities from the construction to operation, including the integration of the Metropolitano North Extension to the Metropolitano BRT system. The TCC is led by the MML and comprised by the ATU, EMAPE and Protransporte. The detailed roles, and responsibilities will be described in the POM.
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements
26. The project’s Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) plan is detailed in Annex 1. The M&E system has been designed to ensure that the proposed project is implemented in accordance with the objectives and expected results. The MML will be responsible for collecting data with the assistance of EMAPE and Protransporte during construction and operation, respectively. EMAPE or Protransporte will collect data on PDO and intermediate outcome indicators quarterly, semiannually and annually from surveys, AFC system operator, supervision firm, Protransporte’s own databases (sexual harassment cases and human resource records), and other sources. In addition to the results framework data, the reports include the updated annual plan of works and activities, including municipalities and communities’ participation, which will include project ES aspects, in line with the requirements stipulated in the ESCP. Progress on compliance with project ES aspects will be detailed in quarterly reports (to be prepared by the MML with the assistance of EMAPE), as specified in the ESCP. The structure of these reports is detailed in the POM, in line with the requirements stipulated in the ESCP. During implementation, the MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will prepare the financial reports. In addition to the regular reports, the MML, jointly with the World Bank, will carry out a midterm review of the progress achieved in the implementation of the project.
C. Sustainability
27. The municipalities of Independencia, Comas, and Carabayllo, and the local community, support the construction and sustainability of the BRT infrastructure. Municipalities and communities have been consulted on how the current design and construction address their needs. The MML will transfer the infrastructure to Protransporte/ATU for its long-term operation and maintenance. Protransporte/ATU will carry out routine maintenance of the BRT infrastructure, with funding supported by the four percent of user fares to which Protransporte is entitled. Historically, these resources have covered routine and periodic maintenance and hence
Page 18 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
ensured the good state of repair of BRT infrastructure. BRT operations and AFC concessionaires are responsible for keeping in good state of repair their fleet and equipment, and their remuneration includes provisions for such maintenance. 28. Four existing BRT concessions for transport operations and one AFC concession are in place to support the operations of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. Concessions with the four BRT operators will be in force until 2033. According to the contract provisions, each bus operator is required to provide and operate the following articulated number of buses: (a) 75 trunk buses at the minimum (currently under operation) and (b) 15 additional trunk buses at the maximum, triggered when the PPVPD indicator surpasses 1,935. Between 2015 and 2018, ridership has increased from 132 million to 148 million trips per year. Consequently, 100 percent of the minimum fleet has been available and operating since 2015, with very high fleet availability measurements. Although the current PPVPD is nearly at 1,700, this indicator is expected to rise to 1,929 with the implementation of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, which is forecasted to increase passenger demand by 13.5 percent within two years after the completion of construction. The fact that the PPVPD indicator in contract provisions has not yet triggered the order for the 60 additional buses (as per contract provisions) suggests that greater operational efficiency can be achieved in the short term with the current minimum fleet. With regard to the AFC concession, the current contract is in force until 2024. According to the provisions of the contract, the concessionaire is required to implement the AFC system at the 17 new stations and at the new terminal. 29. Protransporte will optimize and enhance the service, scheduling, and dispatch plans for the Metropolitano BRT to ensure the benefits of the North Extension are maximized. A World Bank due diligence on the bus operations showed that there is a big opportunity to improve efficiencies and quality of service with the existing resources. The proposed project will finance the improvement of the quality of service (wait times at stations, peak and off- peak headways, passenger safety and personal security) by optimizing the current service plan and introducing a new, technically enhanced scheduling and dispatch program for the Metropolitano BRT, including the North Extension, and other preoperational activities to support the integration of the extension with the current BRT corridor [Component 1 (b), see Annex 2]. Protransporte will operationalize a three-year operational enhancement program that includes: (a) optimizing the service plan for weekdays, Saturdays, and Sundays; (b) introducing state- of-the-art fleet scheduling and dispatch feeder and trunk services, supported by specialized software; (c) the rebalancing of the feeder routes and demand along the 17 new stations and the new terminal; (d) improved vertical efficiency of the service plan, taking advantage of operational U-turns to improve the productivity of buses and reduce headways; (e) the reduction of deadheading mileage to and from the bus depot; and (f) an enhanced data gathering and key performance indicator (KPI) estimation methodology, to ensure adequate service quality monitoring as part of a continuous improvement mindset that will be implemented by the BRT operations team.
IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY
A. Technical, Economic, and Financial Analysis
30. The proposed Project will contribute significantly to climate change mitigation by reducing CO2 emissions, as a result of the reduction in travel time and the modal shift from private to BRT urban transport. In addition, the project designs have incorporated best practices in climate change mitigation and adaptation to induce a modal shift to the BRT and improve the energy efficiency and resilience of the public transport system. Technical considerations include: (a) BRT access infrastructure (footpaths, sidewalks, stations, traffic lights, and street lighting) designed to reduce travel times and enhance safety, security, accessibility, and walkability of users; (b) BRT stations with features that reduce electricity consumption through the incorporation of solar panels,
Page 19 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
rainwater collection, use of energy efficient equipment for wastewater treatment; and (c) BRT corridor and stations’ infrastructure designed to reduce risks related to seismic events, flooding, and water damage (e.g., replacement of drainage channel and pipelines in a section of the corridor). The proposed project is estimated to result in the reduction of CO2 emissions and in enhanced robustness against the impacts of natural hazards and climate change.
31. The project designs include considerations of road safety, gender, PWD, and inclusion approaches (See Annex 2). The designs and bidding documents include technical specifications and key elements to address the needs of women, PWD, and other vulnerable users by providing safe access to and from stations (including bus stops), entrance to and exit from buses, as well availability of space in buses. The World Bank has collected baseline data on traffic fatalities and injuries in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension as this data was not available. During project implementation, the World Bank team will organize capacity-building activities for relevant stakeholders to manage road safety data. In addition, the World Bank has carried out a road safety audit of the engineering designs to cover safety for all road users (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and vehicle occupants) to identify and mitigate road safety risks during the project’s operational phase. The baseline traffic fatality and injury data will inform the road infrastructure safety assessment about risky locations in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension where special attention is required in the designs. Relevant recommendations have been incorporated in the designs and bidding documents for the infrastructure and will be implemented during construction.
32. The proposed project is economically viable and expected to improve mobility and accessibility in Lima, especially for the low-income population in North Lima. An economic analysis (EA) of the proposed project that follows a cost-benefit approach (CBA), comparing likely outcomes with and without the project and calculating the net present value (NPV) of estimated costs and benefits and the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) was carried out. Economic costs include capital costs during the construction phase and operation and maintenance (O&M) during the operational phase. The project’s quantifiable economic benefits are travel-time savings; savings in VOC by changing from traditional modes of transport to BRT buses; and GHG and pollutant emissions reductions. The proposed project is also expected to yield non-quantified benefits such as reduced accidents and increased accessibility for users with disabilities. Under a conservative approach, the project shows strong results: on NPV of US$75.43 million at a 6 percent discount rate and an EIRR of 11.52 percent for a 20-year evaluation horizon. The cost-benefit ratio is 1.53. Additional scenarios, including sensitivity analysis, and their impacts on NPV and EIRR were considered. (The full results of the EA are provided in Annex 4.) 33. Jobs analysis shows a 7.6 percent increase for the Metropolitano BRT North Extension and 1.45 percent increase for the integrated Metropolitano BRT system. The World Bank performed an assessment of accessibility to estimate the net gains from the proposed project in terms of accessibility to jobs, measured by the average number of accessible jobs within a 60-minute, one-way morning rush-hour commute by public transport in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. (Detailed information of the analysis can be found in Annex 3). 34. The new BRT infrastructure will boost passenger ticket revenues and improve the efficiency and productivity of bus operations (increasing average daily passengers per bus, kilometers per bus, and average commercial speed). This will have a positive impact on the current concession contracts and overall financial situation of the BRT system. Passenger fares have increased on average 5.6 percent per year, with the 2019 flat fare set at S/2.50 (US$0.74) per passenger33. The increased operational productivity will likely improve the revenue-cost ratio for
33 Passengers using the feeder systems pay S/0.50 for the feeder and S/2.00 for the trunk service.
Page 20 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
the transport operators, which are paid by Protransporte on a bus-kilometer basis. Additionally, these efficiency gains are expected to raise the PPVPD index. In case the PPVPD reaches 1,935, in accordance with the concession contracts, Protransporte may request up to 60 additional trunk buses (15 buses per operator). In addition, the World Bank will double its efforts with the MML to ensure that coordination with land use plans allow for planned land developments around Terminal Chimpu Ocllo under a Transit-Oriented Development framework, including diverse, dense, and well-designed developments. B. Fiduciary
(i) Financial Management
35. A summary of the Financial Management (FM) assessment shows34: (a) The MML will be responsible for the FM aspects of the proposed project in terms of planning, budgeting, accounting, internal controls, fund flows, financial reporting, and auditing. The budget for loan funds will be allocated from the MEF (Borrower) to the MML to implement the proposed project. The loan funds and counterpart funds will be managed exclusively by the MML. The MML will mandate the assistance of EMAPE for project implementation (procurement, construction, and supervision). (b) The key FM risks include: the MML’s lack of recent experience managing World Bank funds, delay on budget allocation from the MEF to the MML, and lack of coordination between the MML and EMAPE, which could delay project implementation. In addition, delay in signing interinstitutional agreements among participant entities may also delay project implementation funds. The mitigation measures are described in the Key Risk Section and Annex 1. (c) An external audit will be conducted by an independent audit firm selected through the General Audit Comptroller Office and acceptable to the World Bank. Annual audit reports on the project’s financial statements, including management letters, should be submitted to the World Bank within six months of the end of the Borrower’s fiscal year (December 31). (d) The overall conclusion of the FM assessment is that once the mitigating measures have been put in place and the pending activities under staffing, budget, accounting, reporting, and internal controls have been defined, the proposed FM arrangements will meet the World Bank’s minimum fiduciary requirements. (e) The World Bank’s loan proceeds will follow its disbursement policies and procedures, as described in the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter (DFIL). The designated account in U.S. dollars will be opened in the Banco de la Nación. (ii) Procurement
36. Procurement activities will be carried out according to the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, issued in July 2016 and revised in November 2017 and August 2018, for the supply of works, goods, and non-consulting and consultant services under the project. 37. The World Bank carried out a procurement capacity assessment of EMAPE. This assessment concluded that EMAPE, which will assist the MML in project implementation has adequate general procurement capacity and staff, but that it has neither implemented nor monitored the execution of high-value and complex contracts. To mitigate this risk, EMAPE will have to strengthen its procurement capacity by hiring at least one procurement specialist fully dedicated to the project, and with experience in procurement of high-value/complex contracts.
34 In accordance with Financial Management Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing (February 4, 2015) and OP/BP 10.00.
Page 21 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
38. A full version of the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) has been developed by the MML with the assistance of EMAPE. The PPSD establishes the best procurement arrangements that will ensure value for money while efficiently achieving the PDO. The PPSD focuses on the high-risk and high-value works contract under Component 1 and summarizes the operational environment in which the proposed project will be implemented, the market analysis, the risk assessment, and the analysis of different approaches to carry out the procurement for this activity. The preliminary analysis concluded that the most suitable option for this contract is to conduct a prequalification process with an international approach, followed by a Request for Bids process. (More details are provided in Annex 1.) A procurement plan covering at least the first 18 months of project implementation has been prepared by the Borrower based on PPSD results, which was cleared prior to negotiations.
.C . Legal Operational Policies . Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No .
. D. Environmental and Social . Despite this project being brown field and deploying technology that is well known, the Environmental and Social risk classification is substantial under the ESF. The classification responds to risks and impacts across the project’s large geographic footprint and associated indirect area of influence along the corridors of intervention and their various intersections. These risks derive from the complex institutional arrangements of project implementation; required interinstitutional coordination involving multiple agencies; and the PIU’s current lack of ability to manage social and environmental risks and impacts in accordance with the World Bank’s ESF.
To adequately address and mitigate project environmental and social risks and impacts, the borrower is preparing specific Environmental and Social instruments aligned with ESF requirements and relevant EAS. A Category II EIAsd (a type of assessment required by national law for projects when expected adverse impacts are moderate in nature and can be readily mitigated) was developed in 2017 by an independent consultant on behalf of the borrower, following the requirements of Peruvian national law, and approved by the competent entity in 2018. The World Bank, together with the borrower, conducted a gap analysis of the EIAsd and identified specific areas that need to be addressed with the preparation of complementary instruments that supplement the EIAsd to achieve consistency with ESS1 requirements, ensure improvements in project construction and operation, and adequately mitigate adverse risks and impacts. These instruments include: (i) Supplemental Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA-S); (ii) Resettlement Action Plan (RAP); (iii) Labor Management Procedure (LMP); (iv) Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP), including a Grievance .Redress Mechanism (GRM); and (v) identification and assessment of associated facilities.
39. The Borrower, with the support of qualified consultants, has prepared and delivered the ES instruments, with close supervision, guidance, and support from the World Bank. Table 2 details the milestones for when draft fit-for- disclosure versions of these instruments, deemed acceptable to the World Bank, have been disclosed on the MML,
Page 22 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
EMAPE, and Protransporte websites and on the World Bank’s website35. Technical and economic requirements derived from these plans will be incorporated into the procurement documents for the contractor and supervision firm, as necessary. Table 2. Disclosure of ES Documents Prior to Appraisal Prior to Loan Agreement Before Construction (Drafts) Effectiveness Contract Start Date 1. ESIA-S, including the following: • The final version of the • Recommendations for the • Identification and assessment of associated facilities ESIA-S, including the scrapping of old BRT buses • Security, Health and Safety Management Plan for following additional • Traffic Management Plan Construction elements for impact and and updated detour plans • Chance Finds Procedure risk mitigation: for construction and • EMP for Environmental Liabilities o ESMP for the sourcing operation • EMP for Waste Management and transportation of • Labor-related Grievance • Management measures for project-related activities construction material Redress Mechanism (GRM) and components, including expansion of waste o ESMP for tree and a worker’s Code of treatment plant, relocation of a sewage canal, relocation and Conduct relocation of existing small informal dumps located transplantation • Security, Health and Safety within the project’s footprint, removal of a dump • The final versions of the Management Plan for located within the area proposed for expansion of the RAP, LMP, and the SEP. Operation bus depot (including a 7-meter excavation), rehabilitation of auxiliary roads for detours, and the replacement of traffic lights. • Analysis of alternatives for different project components • Cumulative Impacts Assessment Disclosed by the Borrower, on the MML’s website, and on the World Bank’s website on June 28, 2019.
2. RAP Draft disclosed on August 21, 2019, by the Borrower and the World Bank. 3. LMP Disclosed on August 6, 2019, by the Borrower and the World Bank. 4. SEP + GRM Disclosed on August 21, 2019, by the Borrower and the World Bank. Source: World Bank, based on the Borrower’s information
40. The Borrower conducted one additional round of meaningful consultations during the project preparation stage. The evidence is reflected in the corresponding consultation document, and included as an annex in the SEP. The Borrower has prepared the ESCP as a stand-alone document, which details the agreed measures and actions in line with the complementary studies listed above. An environmental and social capacity assessment of EMAPE was conducted by the World Bank and disclosed in draft format prior to appraisal. Relevant measures of the assessment have been included in the project’s ESCP. The Borrower has also prepared gender plans based on the
35 The draft ESIA-S has been published on the MML’s website (http://aplicativos.munlima.gob.pe/ampliacion-metropolitano) on July 25, 2019, and on the World Bank’s website (http://projects.worldbank.org/P170595/ ?lang=en&tab=documents&subTab=projectDocuments) on July 27, 2019.
23 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
project’s gender strategy outlined in the ESIA-S, including measures to address gender-based violence (GBV) and sexual harassment.
41. EMAPE’s capacity related to the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Standards (ESS) will be strengthened to assist the MML in managing the project’s ES and impacts. EMAPE’s organizational chart will include an Environmental and Social Management Area (See organizational structure in Annex 1) comprised of a senior ESS, an environmental specialist, a social specialist, and a health and safety specialist. This team will be strengthened with additional environmental and social staff during preconstruction in order to better mitigate potential ES risks during this phase. The ESCP includes specific actionable capacity-building measures, together with the corresponding budget. Furthermore, given the complexity of and the lessons learned from the current Metropolitano BRT, a strong supervisory finance firm with loan resources will be hired to control the quality of works and progress, including the supervision of project ES aspects. For further details on project ES aspects refer to the Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS) Appraisal Stage.
E. Gender
42. Women suffer a disproportionate transport burden in terms of availability, affordability, access, and personal security, which may prevent them from accessing certain economic opportunities. Public transport affects women and men differently (Martinez et al., 2018). According to GIZ (the German agency for international cooperation), 93.4 percent of women in Lima rely on public transport in Lima (GIZ 2018a); especially women that work outside their homes (Galiani and Jaitman 2016a). They mostly rely on complementary buses and combis, which are slower modes compared to informal vehicles. This affects women´s access to economic opportunities. Women also depend on different modes of transport to be able to combine household activities with work-related ones. Women consider buses and combis unsafe modes (Galiani and Jaitman 2016b). However, based on focus group discussions, these modes satisfy their demands given the limited coverage of the Metropolitano BRT, although women consider the latter a safer transport option36. Additionally, a survey conducted by Protransporte showed that women who often use the Metropolitano BRT are not among the lowest socioeconomic quintiles, very likely because of lack of coverage in low-income areas and having to pay for other modes to reach the BRT.
43. Women in Lima are more vulnerable to personal security issues, including sexual harassment, in public transport. Around 30 percent of female residents in Lima have reported sexual harassment in public transport (Alata 2018). To address this issue, Law No. 30,314 on the Prevention and Sanction of Sexual Harassment in Public Spaces defines the concept, elements, and displays of sexual harassment in public spaces, including Metropolitano stations37. Violence against women is also addressed through Law No. 30,364 to Prevent, Sanction and Eradicate Violence against Women and Members of the Family. Similarly, Protransporte is developing a response protocol for cases of sexual harassment in the Metropolitano and its call center is collecting these complaints. These are positive and welcome steps forward in response to these issues. Under the proposed project, this protocol would be revised and enhanced to ensure that Protransporte’s processes link to the referral pathway established under Law No. 30,364, while rapid and confidential attention is always provided to victims.
44. In terms of affordability, female users spend a larger proportion of their wages on transport. The lack of massive transit coverage and connectivity gaps in public transport impact travel time and cost for women. Findings from
36 The latest report published by Sustainability-Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) on the role of public transport in promoting employment of women in Lima found that those that use the Metropolitano BRT or Metro are more satisfied with safety and experience less risk of harassment (Martinez et al. 2018). https://doi.org/10.3390/su1102795. 37 This law is part of the regulatory framework of the recent National Policy of Urban Transport (PNTU).
24 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
focus group discussions conducted by the team with the participation of female users revealed that once they reach the Metropolitan area, they don’t consider it worthwhile to pay the BRT for the remaining destination. They prefer instead to walk or use a cheaper mode of transport. The optimization of the integration of the extended Metropolitano BRT and the accessibility through feeder and complementary buses will improve women’s mobility.
45. The proposed project would contribute to women’s mobility by improving physical access to mass rapid transit and safer public transport. The proposed project incorporates features in the design of the passenger stations, bridges, and bus terminal that would address women’s needs based on their mobility patterns (traveling accompanied, with bags, or transferring to other transport modes) and personal security. These features would contribute to enhancing aspects related to access (e.g., ramps, physical integration with pedestrian infrastructure) and violence prevention (e.g., design features to increase visibility and open spaces).
46. To increase women’s personal security and contribute to preventing, mitigating, and responding to sexual harassment incidences, the proposed project would finance the implementation of a Gender Action Plan (GAP) with concrete measures and indicators. The actions would include CCTV cameras at new stations, training to operators on appropriate response to sexual harassment and customer service, improvement of a response protocol, development of a mechanism to report cases with confidentiality (exploring the usage of mobile phone technology), communication campaigns to raise awareness of reporting mechanisms and to develop a community environment, and increased training of police forces working at stations to properly respond to incidents of sexual harassment. Besides increasing coverage and accessibility for women in low-income areas, the Metropolitano North Extension and the feeder buses would contribute to rebalance the demand in the 17 new stations and reduce the concentration and congestion in the current Terminal Naranjal, which would mitigate the sexual harassment risk.
47. The GAP would also include activities to address barriers that women face to work in the urban transport sector. Women represent only 0.28 percent of the current total number of bus drivers (GIZ 2018b) and 13 percent of Protransporte’s staff. Besides gender norms and stereotypes associated with male-dominated fields, procedural barriers have a stronger impact on women’s employment opportunities; for example, licenses for articulated buses require several years of work experience with another previous driver’s license38. The impact of the project on female users is expected to be positive, as was evident from a recent survey on security and transport users39. Moreover, recruiting higher numbers of female staff for the new positions of the Metropolitano BRT Extension (bus counselors, security staff, and administrative positions) will help reduce this gap. The GAP will include activities to address these challenges for an equal opportunity recruitment and retention in the Metropolitano BRT.
48. The bus operators have been working to reduce security risks for women, including sexual harassment, and some employ women as drivers. Areas of improvement have been identified and the operators are willing to support the GAP activities, including piloting innovative solutions. Considering the relevance of this challenge, a future bidding process for renewal or new concession agreements will include consideration of women’s mobility in buses. The design and implementation of the GAP activities will be properly documented and reported
38 The proposed project will explore the possibility of linking this activity by attracting more female drivers with Protransporte’s Chatarreo Program. This program allows bus operators to identify women that were driving in the informal/formal sector, accompanied with recruitment strategies that can identify a potential supply or that can contribute to addressing the barriers to participation as operators at the Metropolitano. Recruitment and retention activities will be identified to promote women as bus operators for the High-capacity Segregated (bus) Corridor (Corredor Segregado de Alta Capacidad, or COSAC) and feeder buses. 39 The proposed project will support the GAP on the National Equal Gender Policy established in April 2019, which legally supports gender equal opportunities and promotes a national plan to address gender disparities in employment.
25 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
semiannually to ensure that learning can be provided to the ATU once it is consolidated. All these measures together aim to gradually capture additional female ridership and increase their preferences to use the Metropolitano BRT; satisfaction with coverage, personal security, and reliability in the Metropolitano BRT, and employment in the sector are included in the results framework.
49. Construction can bring additional risks to communities, including sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) and sexual harassment in the workplace. The risk assessment through the World Bank’s tool includes the country and project context to identify different GBV risk factors. This analysis was complemented by the findings from the ESIA-S. The results rank the project low for SEA. Peru has high levels of intimate partner violence (above the regional average); the prevalence of sexual violence from a partner and child marriage is below the regional average. As per the Demographic and Health Survey, that includes the assessment of the availability if resources for survivors of SEA and sexual harassment, Peru ranks above the regional average. This country has made relevant progress on legislation to prevent and respond to different forms of GBV, including sexual violence and harassment, as well as having a National Working Group to prevent, respond to, and sanction cases of GBV. With regard to project- related risks, the proposed project is in an accessible urban area which will ease supervision along the span of its implementation, while providing services, such as the Centros de Emergencia Mujer (CEMs), for potential survivors of SEA stemming from the project. As described, the GRM will be linked with these services to enhance its capacity to respond to cases through proper referrals. It is expected that part of the low-qualified labor force will be supplied locally, and the total number of workers will be around 800. Therefore, major issues associated with labor influx are not anticipated during construction.
50. The proposed project will implement actions and response measures to mitigate GBV risks, specifically SEA and SH, taking into account the recommendations of the Good Practice Note Addressing Gender Based Violence Investment Project Financing involving Major Civil Work (GPN), including: (a) updating the mapping of service providers for GBV survivors, including the identification of CEMs close to the project area; (b) enhanced contractual obligations that incorporate requirements on SEA mitigation for contractors, for example, having a Code of Conduct (CoC) signed by all of the contractor’s workers and regular training on their obligations under the CoC; (c) a GRM with the capacity to conduct referrals for survivors in a confidential manner; (d) awareness raising for the community on SEA risks; and (v) training for the MML and EMAPE on the identification and management of GBV risks. The GBV risk assessment and mitigation measures will be included in the supplementary document attached to the Environmental and Social Assessment, and the risk for SEA/sexual harassment will be updated in case additional enabling factors are identified. EMAPE and Protransporte have already been sensitized to the importance of addressing GBV on the project and on the recommendations of the GPN, and the mechanisms that will be implemented. Moreover, a mapping of CEMs around the project area has been developed and will be enhanced by identifying other services with the capacity to respond to SEA survivors. The bidding documents will include provisions to prevent and face SEA/SH risks, including CoCs, training, and monitoring by the supervisor and the PIU.
F. Grievance Redress Mechanisms Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank-supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level GRMs or to the World Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Communities and individuals affected by the project may submit their complaint to the World Bank’s independent Inspection Panel that determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of the World Bank’s noncompliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank’s attention and its management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit
26 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
complaints to the World Bank’s corporate GRS, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects- operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. V. KEY RISKS . 51. The overall risk rating of the proposed project is substantial based on substantial fiduciary, ES, and stakeholder risks to achieving results. The potential impact and likelihood of the risks and key risk management measures are described below.
52. The combined fiduciary risk is rated as substantial. The MML will be responsible for the financial management of the project. The MML has no recent experience under World Bank regulations—the MML last managed a World Bank loan for the Metropolitano BRT between 2001 and 2010. The main identified risks are: (a) delayed budget allocation from the MEF to the MML based on recent experiences with subnational projects; (b) financial management will be split between the MML and EMAPE; (c) delay in recruiting key financial management staff with the capacity to rapidly get acquainted with FM guidelines to avoid situations of ineligible expenditures; and (d) lack of clearly defined fiduciary roles in the interinstitutional arrangements between the MEF and MML and the MML and EMAPE. To mitigate these risks, the Borrower has provided: (a) the legal framework and a legal opinion, which includes clear fiduciary roles and responsibilities for the MEF and the MML; (b) terms of reference to select and hire the fiduciary staff, including qualified financial management specialists at the MML and EMAPE with experience in implementing projects financed by multilateral organizations; (c) the POM includes a clear definition of roles and responsibilities for both entities to avoid delays in the provision of financial documentation from EMAPE to the MML to process payments; (d) a definition of the format for the financial reports for the project; and (e) a draft version of the FM chapters of the POM, including identification of key controls that need to be strengthened and adapted considering the design of the proposed project. With regard to procurement, EMAPE has no recent experience working with World Bank-financed projects and has no experience in bidding for complex and/or high-value contracts. A mitigation plan to strengthen the procurement capacity of EMAPE includes: (a) hiring qualified professional staff with experience in procurement of high-value/complex contracts, and contract execution; and (b) developing a detailed contract management plan.
53. Environmental and social risks are rated as substantial. These factors may undermine the sustainability of the operation’s achievements and results or could lead to unnecessary or costly implementation delays. (a) Main potential environmental risks are related to: (i) relocation and maintenance of 1,522 trees during preconstruction and the replanting and maintenance (including watering) of 1,981 new trees along the proposed project corridor; (ii) overall nuisances to the communities and health and safety issues due to noise and vibration, dust, traffic congestion, waste, and visual disturbances, as well as by the tree relocation activities; (iii) traffic deviations and detours during construction, leading to disturbances to local residents and increased risk of third-party accidents; (iv) inadequate management of existing pollution legacies, including: (1) current noise and air quality levels in the area of influence that already exceed the values permitted by the Peruvian Environmental Quality Standards; (2) existing dump and scrap storage in the proposed area for the expansion of the bus depot; among others. (b) Potential adverse social impacts and risks attributable to the proposed project include: (i) the need to relocate 504 informal vendors located in a section of the right of way; (ii) the acquisition of land of 11 social units (three residential dwellings, three commercial establishments, and five residential and commercial structures) on eight lots of land; (iii) the relocation or remodeling of a small Catholic shrine; (iv) the legacy
27 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
from the occupation of 7.8 hectares of green area for the bus depot in 2009 and the opposition from local groups to the reconversion of the current dump and scrap storage degraded area (non-green) for the expansion of the bus depot (2.2 hectares); and (v) socioeconomic risks associated with restrictions on access to residential, commercial, and public services, including education (preschools, schools, universities) and health (clinics, hospitals) as a result of construction, traffic deviations, and street closings. In addition, there is a significant contextual and stakeholder risk associated with the complex urban settings in which the BRT expansion will be implemented, including a history of social protests associated with the legacy of the original Metropolitano BRT, potential opposition from local groups to the relocation of trees and the reconversion of a non-green area for the expansion of the bus depo40, and the risk of reproducing a system of gender harassment and citizen insecurity present in the current Metropolitano BRT.
54. The Borrower has prepared specific ES instruments aligned with the ESF and relevant ESS to adequately address and mitigate the abovementioned ES risks and impacts (see Table 2). Technical and economic requirements derived from these plans will be incorporated into the procurement documents for the contractor and supervision firm, as necessary.
55. The project’s ESCP includes specific measures to strengthen the capacity of the MML and EMAPE to accurately manage the ES risks. Among other measures, the PIU in the MML and the TCU team in EMAPE will receive training on World Bank ESSs and project management aspects. The POM defines clear roles to actively involve beneficiary municipalities and transport operators. Given the complexity and the lessons learned from the original Metropolitano BRT’s development and implementation, a strong supervisory firm will be hired to control the quality of works and progress. This team will be strengthened with additional ES staff during preconstruction in order to mitigate potential ES risks during this phase. In addition: (a) interinstitutional working groups (mesas institucionales de trabajo) will be set up, including one specific to the activities related to tree relocation and installation and maintenance of green areas; (b) interinstitutional agreements will be signed to promote collaboration between the multiple agencies and municipalities to ensure commitment and support on the management of ES issues; and (c) the construction supervisor will include qualified ES staff to supervise compliance with the environmental and social standard (ESS) and the ES management plans.
56. Stakeholder risk is assessed as substantial considering the need for reorganizing the 17 feeder routes that may lead to potential disputes between the BRT concessionaries and Protransporte, as well as the need for continuous engagement of users and municipalities in the design and implementation of the proposed extension of the BRT, and the concerns of tree conservation groups.
(a) The implementation of the proposed project will not reduce the operator’s revenue. The MML will implement a robust feeder reorganization plan for the 17 feeder routes in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. Of the 17 routes currently connecting to Terminal Naranjal, 13 will be adjusted to connect to eight of the 17 new BRT stations and the new terminal station. Preliminary feeder route plans indicate that
40 During Project preparation, as per the World Bank's request, the MML submitted legal opinions, in which the following was represented: (a) that the existing bus depot and its planned expansion within the Sinchi Roca Park are in line with applicable national laws, including, the Acuerdos of the Municipal Council No. 121-2009, No. 144-2010 and No. 212-2017, and Ordenanza Municipal No. 1852 for the Conservation and Management of Green Areas in the Lima Province; (b) The Acuerdos constitute government acts with full legal validity, which have not been reconsidered or formally challenged; and (c) The Explanatory Technical Report and a Semi-Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment for the expansion of the bus depot were approved by Ministerial Resolutions No. 582-2018—MTC and No. 106-2018-MTC, respectively, both issued by the General Directorate of Environmental and Social Affairs of the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MTC), with favorable opinion issued by the Directorate of Environmental Management of the MTC.
28 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
only four of the 17 feeder routes will end at the Terminal Naranjal. The feeder reorganization plan was prepared based on a demand analysis and accessibility analysis for the planning of new routes while maximizing coverage in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, especially for low- income users, and consideration of road safety features at the new feeder bus stops. Reorganization of the feeder routes will not affect the concessionaires’ revenue. Careful implementation of all these measures will prevent potential disputes, controversies, and claims between the MML and BRT concessionaires. The Loan Agreement will include a covenant requiring the completion of the feeder reorganization within 180 days after the completion of works. (b) The ESCP and SEP instruments will help ensure that municipalities’ concerns about the impact of traffic detours, green areas, the occupation of 2.2 hectares in part of the Sinchi Roca Park, and the relocation of street vendors will be addressed as follows: the ESCP will include cooperation agreements with the local municipalities about roles and responsibilities in planning, designing, and implementing the BRT and its environmental and social instruments. To this end, the municipalities will be involved during project preparation and implementation to support relocation of street vendors41, non-motorized solutions, the location of transit stations, green area expansion, bicycle parking, road safety, access to BRT, security, etc., as part of a “BRT culture plan” following the experience of Medellín and other cities. (c) NGOs and users’ concerns are related to bus capacity and comfort, lack of integration of urban transport services, and delays. To mitigate these risks, the ATU is mandated to prioritize implementation of transport integration based on the National Urban Transport Policy (integration of Metro-BRT-cable cars). The proposed project will finance innovative preoperational activities to improve Protransporte’s operational service and schedule, enabling timetables to be constructed with a greater certainty, providing more efficient applications, and improving GRMs. Under the cooperation agreements, the districts of Independencia, Comas and Carabayllo are required to manage the impacts of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension on traffic, temporary enclosures, residential density, and land-use density along the BRT corridor. The SEP will include consultation and GRMs to seek and integrate citizens’ feedback during preparation and implementation. This . feedback will be monitored through indicators in the results framework.
41 It should be noted that the potential social impacts on formal or informal traditional transport providers are not anticipated to cause an economic displacement of bus operators.
29 The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING
Results Framework COUNTRY: Peru Lima Metropolitano BRT North Extension
Project Development Objectives(s) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve urban mobility and accessibility to jobs in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Project Development Objective Indicators
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target
Improving urban mobility
In-vehicle travel time for public transport users between 31.00 17.00 Terminal Chimpu Ocllo and Terminal Naranjal (Minutes)
Passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, differentiated by socioeconomic levels and gender 0.00 60,000.00 (Number)
Low-income passengers as % of total validations entering the northern terminals of the Metropolitano BRT system 31.00 42.00 (Percentage)
Women passengers per day as % of total validations on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (feeder and trunk buses) 0.00 49.00 (Percentage)
Women passengers shifting from informal transport modes to the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, as % of total 0.00 10.00 surveyed women (Percentage)
Page 30 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target
Users satisfied with the service in the northern BRT extension (coverage, reliability, safety, personal security), differentiated by 56.00 65.00 socioeconomic level and gender (Percentage)
Change in % of women passengers satisfied with service in 0.00 10.00 terms of safety, security (Percentage)
Improving accessibility to jobs
Average number of jobs reachable by public transportation within a 60-minute, one-way commute in the area of influence 156,595.00 165,990.00 of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (number) (Number)
PDO Table SPACE
Intermediate Results Indicators by Components
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target
1. (a) BRT infrastructure and equipment Physical progress in building segregated BRT lanes on the 0.00 100.00 Metropolitano BRT North Extension (Percentage) Roads constructed (CRI, Kilometers) 0.00 10.20 Roads constructed - non-rural (CRI, Kilometers) 0.00 10.20 Physical progress in constructing passenger stations on the 0.00 100.00 Metropolitano BRT North Extension (Percentage) Passenger stations that provide access for people with disabilities (Number) 0.00 17.00 Physical progress in constructing pedestrian bridges on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (Percentage) 0.00 100.00 Construction of U-turns on the Metropolitano BRT North 0.00 3.00
Page 31 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target
Extension (Number) Physical progress of constructing the Chimpu Ocllo bus terminal on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (Percentage) 0.00 100.00 Physical progress of expanding a bus depot on the Metropolitano 0.00 100.00 BRT North Extension (Percentage) Carriageway-km covered by installing infrastructure and/or 0.00 10.20 equipment designed to reduce speeds (Kilometers) Integrated the Metropolitano BRT North Extension to the BRT system based on the preoperational plan (Yes/No) No Yes Citizens reporting satisfaction with key aspects of consultation 0.00 60.00 process, disintegrated by gender (Percentage) Harmonized Response Protocol to address cases of sexual harassment in the Metropolitano BRT being used by No Yes Protransporte (Yes/No) Women employed in the Metropolitano BRT (Percentage) 13.00 20.00 Construction workers in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension that have signed the code of conduct and attended the code of 0.00 100.00 conduct training (Percentage) Implementation the environmental management measures for the project’s green areas following the specifications of the No Yes approved final Vegetation Management Plan (Yes/No) 1. (b) Optimization of the BRT operations and services. Improved the capacity of Protransporte's bus scheduling task team (Yes/No) No Yes Diagnosis and improvement of service plans, route No Yes scheduling, and bus dispatch services completed (Yes/No) State-of-the-art software and methodology for scheduling No Yes feeder and trunk services implemented (Yes/No) Enhanced M&E framework for monitoring operational performance indicators on the Metropolitano BRT (Yes/No) No Yes
Page 32 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target
Operational efficiencies implemented (Number) 0.00 2.00 Updated and upgraded feeder-route service plan (Number) 0.00 1.00 Updated trunk service plan (Number) 0.00 1.00 Implementation plan for an expanded, integrated and improved the fare collection system on the entire Metropolitano BRT No Yes system (Yes/No) Integration and expansion of the existing Metropolitano BRT fare collection system with the North Extension (including No Yes feeder routes) completed (Yes/No) Share of personalized smart cards as % of total active smart 0.00 25.00 cards for the Metropolitano BRT system (Percentage)
IO Table SPACE
UL Table SPACE
Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Travel times Time: adequate This indicator measures the to be measurement dates weekday peak-time travel Semiannual quantitativel and times will be In-vehicle travel time for public transport time of users along the (after y defined in advance by Protransporte users between Terminal Chimpu Ocllo and Metropolitano BRT North completion determined b Protransporte.
Terminal Naranjal Extension, between of works) y an Travel time Terminal Chimpu Ocllo and independent measurements will take Terminal Naranjal. consultant. place at regular weekdays during the
Page 33 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
morning peak hours. The travel time corresponds to the in- vehicle travel time between the Chimpu Ocllo starting point in the Tupac Amaru Avenue and the Naranjal Terminal Station. The responsibles for measurement will use a digital chronometer to record total onboard time after boarding the unit, including stopped time or any other reasonable time spent onboard the vehicle before reaching Terminal Naranjal. The measurements will require at least five rounds of measurement and calculate the average time. Any journey with a vehicle breakdown, accident or traffic stoppage due to police orders will not be considered.
Page 34 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
The indicator will be measured in two ways: (a) number of trip validations (feeder and trunk) per day between Naranjal terminal (an existing terminal) and Chimpu Ocllo terminal (to be built under the project) and (b) Fare passenger surveys at Collection This indicator measures the Naranjal and Chimpu Operator number of passengers in the Ocllo terminals to Semiannual hired by Passengers’ trips per day in the area of influence of the assess the (after Protransport Metropolitano BRT North Extension, Metropolitano BRT North socioeconomic level Protransporte completion e. differentiated by socioeconomic levels Extension that travel and gender of the of works) Surveys to be and gender between Terminal Naranjal passengers entering the done by and Terminal Chimpu Ocllo terminals. Protransport terminals. These terminals are e. located in the area of
the influence of the Metropollitano North Extension. They have been selected due to the actual and estimated high demand for transport services and concentration of trips per day at these
Page 35 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
terminals. Currently, Naranjal terminal accounts for 18% of the total trips in the Metropolitano BRT system. Chimpu Ocllo terminal will help to rebalance the demand and serve additional trips. Both terminals are critical for the mobilization of the users in the North Extension. Note: The same survey will be used to collect data for three PDO indicators: (a) Passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, differentiated by socioeconomic levels and gender, (b) Low- income passengers as % of total validations entering in the North terminals in the Metropolitano BRT system, (c) % of beneficiaries satisfied
Page 36 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
with the BRT transp. services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension and (d) Women passengers per day as % of total validations on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (feeder and trunk buses) and Women passengers shifting from informal transport, as % of total surveyed women. The INEI distinguishes the socioeconomic levels by per capita income: A (upper class): S/.2,192.20 or more; B (upper middle class): S/.1,330.10 to S/.2,192.19; C (middle class): S/.899.00- S/.1,330.09; D (lower middle class): S/.575.70-S/.898.99; E (lower class): S/.575.69 or less (2017 definition). The terms “lower income population” and “lower
Page 37 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
socioeconomic levels” are used to refer to the sum of population from socioeconomic levels D and E.
This indicator measures the Protransporte will percentage of low-income identify representative passengers as share of total dates to carry out validations (combined passenger surveys. weekday peak and offpeak) Dates should be typical entering the northern weekdays, and surveys terminals from the should be carried out at Metropolitano BRT system. peak and off peak Low-income passengers are periods to allow defined as passengers that assigning equivalent when surveyed report to Surveys to be weights to peak and off Semiannual Low-income passengers as % of total live in the D or E carried out peak. (after validations entering the northern socioeconomic strata, as per by Surveys will be Protransporte completion terminals of the Metropolitano BRT Peru's classification of Protransport designed and approved of works) system socioeconomic levels. e. by Protransporte in the
The baseline corresponds to first six months of the share of low-income construction of the passengers from a project. The contents of representative sample of survey questions riders taken at weekdays, should not be peak and off peak periods, substantially modified entering the Naranjal between surveys to terminal, currently the allow comparability of northernmost station of the results. Surveys should system. ideally have a The indicator will be maximum of 12
Page 38 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
monitored by carrying out questions to ensure equivalent surveys in the surveys for each Chimpu Ocllo and Naranjal passenger take no terminal stations and more than 1:30 determining the % of low- minutes. Interception income passengers. surveys will be carried out on passengers after accessing the station, which can include passengers queuing to board services. Surveys should be representative of total validations at stations. The indicator will be measured through surv eys among passengers entering the Central Station (an existing station) and Chimpu Ocllo terminal (to be built under the project). The surveys will collect data on the socio-economic level of the passengers. The baseline of 31% represents the share of low-income passengers entering the Metropolitano BRT at the Central Station.
Page 39 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
The project's target is to achieve a share of 42% of low-income passengers at the Chimpu Ocllo terminal. The Central Station and Chi mpu Ocllo terminal have been selected due to the high actual and estimated demand for transport services, respectively, and because their passengers have a different socioeconomic profile (the Central Station is a located in middle-class residential area, while Terminal Chimpu Ocllo is located in a low income residential area). Note: The same survey will be used to collect data for three PDO indicators: (a) passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension,
Page 40 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
differentiated by socioeconomic levels and gender, (b) share of trips in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension taken by low-income passenger, (c) beneficiaries satisfied with the BRT transp. services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension and (d) female ridership on the Metropolitano BRT North extension. The INEI distinguishes the socioeconomic levels by per capita income: A (upper class): S/.2,192.20 or more; B (upper middle class): S/.1,330.10 to S/.2,192.19; C (middle class): S/.899.00- S/.1,330.09; D (lower middle class): S/.575.70-S/.898.99; E (lower class): S/.575.69 or less (2017 definition). The terms
Page 41 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
“lower income population” and “lower socioeconomic levels” are used to refer to the sum of population from socioeconomic levels D and E.
Fare The indicator will be Collection calculated using visual The indicator measures the Operator passenger counts to share of women entering hired by determine likely gender Women passengers per day as % of the BRT system (including Protransport of passengers during total validations on the Metropolitano Semiannual Protransporte feeder and trunk services) e representative peak BRT North Extension (feeder and anywhere on the Surveys to be and off-peak periods on trunk buses) Metropolitano BRT North done by weekdays at Extension. Protransport Terminal Naranjal and e. Terminal Chimpu Ocllo.
Protransporte will identify representative dates to carry out passenger surveys. The indicator measures Surveys to be Dates should be typical Women passengers shifting from women reporting having done by weekdays, and surveys informal transport modes to the Semiannual Protransporte shifted from informal Protransport should be carried out at Metropolitano BRT North Extension, transport into the BRT e. peak and off peak as % of total surveyed women system's North Extension. periods to allow assigning equivalent weights to peak and off peak. Surveys will be
Page 42 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
designed and approved by Protransporte in the twelve months of construction of the project. The contents of survey questions should not be substantially modified between surveys to allow comparability of results. Surveys should ideally have a maximum of 12 questions to ensure survey times to each passenger take no more than 1:30 minutes. Interception surveys will be carried out on passengers after accessing the station, which can include passengers queuing to board services. Surveys should be representative of total validations at selected stations. The survey will specifically ask women about their commuting habits before the start
Page 43 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
of operations of the BRT North Extension. Respondents will be offered a list of options to select, including (a) feeder-BRT, (b) walking, (c) combi-micro-van (informal), (d) taxi, shared taxi, rickshaw, or pedicab. Women reporting (c) or (d) will be considered as shift from informal to BRT.
Protransporte will identify representative dates to carry out passenger surveys. Survey to be Dates should be typical This indicator measures the done by an weekdays, and surveys degree of satisfaction of independent should be carried out at Users satisfied with the service in the users with the transport Semiannual consultant peak and off peak northern BRT extension (coverage, provided, including (after under periods to allow Protransporte reliability, safety, personal security), coverage, reliability, safety, completion contract by assigning equivalent differentiated by socioeconomic level and personal security of works). PROTRANSP weights to peak and off gender differentiated by ORTE or its peak. Surveys will be socioeconomic level, and equivalent. implemented at peak gender. and off-peak hours to account for the differences in mobility patterns between women and men.
Page 44 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Surveys will be designed and approved by Protransporte in the first six months of construction of the project. The contents of survey questions should not be substantially modified between surveys to allow comparability of results. Surveys should ideally have a maximum of 12 questions to ensure survey times to each passenger take no more than 1:30 minutes. Interception surveys will be carried out on passengers after accessing the station, which can include passengers queuing to board services. Surveys should be representative of total validations at stations during the selected time periods for survey applications (1hour peak, 1 hour off-
Page 45 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
peak). Questions related to women’s particular concerns (design features taking into account their specific needs such as visibility, elevators, etc.) and sexual harassment will have a higher weight. The sample size will reflect the proportion of male and female users and should be representative of the total users with a low statistical error. The baseline of 56% (or 3 within the Likert scale, where 1 is very dissatisfied and 5 is very satisfied) is based on a survey on satisfaction with the existing BRT and it is used as an approximate baseline for the extension. Note: The same survey will be used to collect data for three PDO
Page 46 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
indicators: (a) passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, differentiated by socioeconomic levels and gender, (b) share of trips in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension taken by low-income passenger, (c) beneficiaries satisfied with the BRT transp. services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension and (d) female ridership on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Survey to be Survey at weekday done an peak and off peak This sub indicator measures Semiannual independent hours presenting the degree of satisfaction of Change in % of women passengers (after consultant women with a 1 to 5 female users with the Protransporte satisfied with service in terms of completion selected and Likert scale asking transport provided, focusing safety, security of works). hired by specifically about their on women's safety and Protransport satisfaction with their personal security. e. Should be safety and security. included in Percentage of users
Page 47 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
satisfaction replying 3 or above will survey. be considered satisfied. Percentage will be calculated from total number of surveyed women from the representative sample. Note: The same survey will be used to collect data for three PDO indicators: (a) passengers’ trips per day in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, differentiated by socio- economic levels and gender, (b) share of trips in the Metropolitano BRT North Extension taken by low-income passenger, (c) beneficiaries satisfied with the BRT transp. services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, and (d) female ridership on the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Page 48 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Data will be collected based on web-based tool developed by the World Bank and Conveyal. To measure the baseline, the accessibility tool used the situation without Census the project. The data of the baseline scenario districts of includes transport by This indicator measures the North Lima current bus network + Average number of jobs reachable by degree of access to jobs by Semiannual to Metro Line 1 + current public transportation within a 60-minute, public transport within 60- (after be provided Metropolitano BRT and Protransporte. one-way commute in the area of minute, one-way commute completion by the current traditional influence of the Metropolitano BRT North in the area of influence of of works). National feeder buses. Extension (number) the Metropolitano BRT Statistics The target includes the North Extension (10.2 km). Institute of baseline Scenario + Peru. Metropolitano BRT North Extension (based on a conservative estimate). The travel time is calculated as a combination of walking and public transport, with average walking speed set as 5km per hour, and maximum three transfers. The
Page 49 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
area of influence includes the districts of Comas, Los Olives, Independencia, and urban areas of Carabayllo. See Annex 3 of the PAD for detailed accessibility analysis. To establish a target, the tool used certain assumptions. To ensure consistency, reporting on the indicator should be based on the following two assumptions that were applied in establishing the target: (a) transfers between feeder buses and trunk BRT buses are free of charge and (b) frequency of service by the trunk buses is the same. If the assumptions change, the tool is able to model the impact of this difference on accessibility.
Page 50 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
ME PDO Table SPACE
Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection The supervision firm will assess the Thi indicator measures the percentage of physical progress in constructing the Physical progress in building segregated Supervision Supervisor hired by constructing 10.2km of Quarterly segregated BRT lanes BRT lanes on the Metropolitano BRT reports EMAPE segregated BRT lanes on the and report to the North Extension Metropolitano BRT North EMAPE monthly. extension. EMAPE will report to the Bank quarterly.
The supervision firm will assess the percentage of constructing the Semiannua Supervision Supervisor hired by segregated BRT lanes Roads constructed l reports EMAPE and report to the
EMAPE monthly. EMAPE will report to the Bank quarterly.
The supervision firm will assess the Semiannua Supervision Supervisor hired by percentage of Roads constructed - non-rural l reports EMAPE constructing the
segregated BRT lanes and report to the
Page 51 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
EMAPE monthly. EMAPE will report to the Bank quarterly.
This indicator measures the physical progress in The supervision firm constructing the 17 will assess the passenger stations on the percentage of Metropolitano BRT North constructing the Physical progress in constructing extension to process Supervision Supervisor hired by Quarterly passenger stations and passenger stations on the Metropolitano passengers. The stations will reports EMAPE report to the EMAPE BRT North Extension be built with consideration monthly. EMAPE will for road safety, personal report to the security, and universal Bank quarterly. accessibility (including for
women and people with disabilities). This indicator measures the number of stations built on The supervision firm the Metropolitano BRT will assess the North Extension with percentage of consideration for people constructing the 17 with disabilities, including passenger stations that also blind and passengers Supervision Supervisor hired by Passenger stations that provide Quarterly provide access for with cognitive issues. The reports EMAPE access for people with disabilities people with disabilities stations should include the and report to the following features: EMAPE monthly.
EMAPE will report to i. On an urban scale, the Bank quarterly. at the crosswalks, the
accessible width of the roads and intermediate
Page 52 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
guards will be equal to the full width of the crosswalk. The elevators’ design will be adapted to increase security and needs of people with disabilities. ii. As for urban furniture, new bollard designs, single-mouth litter bins, benches, pedestrian safety grills with a non- scalable design, protected base corks, and ischiatic supports for bus stops will be implemented. iii. In the stations, handrails will be changed to vertical tubes and ticket offices will have a maximum height of 1.10 meters. For the corridor modules, raised flowerpots will be replaced with flowerpots at floor level. At the terminal, the taps, towel racks, soap dish height will also be replaced and adapted to meet the needs of people with disabilities.
Physical progress in constructing This indicator measures the Quarterly Supervision The supervision firm Supervisor hired by pedestrian bridges on the Metropolitano percentage of constructing reports will assess the
Page 53 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
BRT North Extension the two pedestrian bridges percentage of EMAPE on the Metropolitano BRT constructing North Extension. The the pedestrian bridges will be built with bridges and report to consideration for road the EMAPE monthly. safety, personal security, EMAPE will report to and universal accessibility the Bank quarterly. (including for women and people with disabilities). This indicator measures the The supervision firm completion of constructing will assess the the three bus U-turns on the construction Metropolitano BRT North Supervisor of the three U Supervisor hired by Construction of U-turns on the Quartely Extension. The purpose of reports turns and report to the EMAPE Metropolitano BRT North Extension the bus U-turns is to reduce EMAPE monthly. travel time, increase travel EMAPE will report to frequencies, and reduce the Bank quarterly. operational costs. This indicator measures the percentage of constructing the bus terminal on the The supervision firm Metropolitano BRT North will assess the Extension. As this is the last percentage of station in the Metropolitano Physical progress of constructing the Supervisor constructing the bus Supervisor hired by BRT North Extension, it will Quarterly Chimpu Ocllo bus terminal on the reports terminal and report to EMAPE concentrate the main feeder Metropolitano BRT North Extension the EMAPE monthly. roads from the district of EMAPE will report to Carabayllo, Puente Piedra the Bank quarterly. and other urban areas in
North Lima. The size of the terminal is designed to serve a large number of
Page 54 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
passengers that begin or end their trip at the terminal or transfer at this terminal to feeder buses for final destination. The supervision firm will assess the This indicator measures the percentage of extension of the existing bus Physical progress of expanding a bus Supervision expanding the bus Supervisor hired by depot near Chimpu Ocllo Quarterly depot on the Metropolitano BRT North reports. depot and report to the EMAPE. terminal on the Extension EMAPE monthly. Metropolitano BRT North EMAPE will report to Extension. the Bank quarterly.
This indicator measures implementation of infrastructure and/or The supervision firm equipment on the BRT lanes will assess the and lanes for mixed traffic kilometers on the Metropolitano BRT of carriageway-km North Extension (10.2 km). covered by installing Carriageway-km covered by installing The measures are designed Supervision infrastructure and/or Supervisor hired by Quarterly infrastructure and/or equipment designed to reduce speed as a key reports equipment designed to EMAPE to reduce speeds element to improving road reduce speeds and safety. The measures report to the EMAPE include well-designed monthly. EMAPE will roundabouts, raised report to the pedestrian platform Bank quarterly. crossings, speed humps, automated speed and red- light enforcement cameras.
Page 55 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
The project will finance preoperational activities for the integration of the Metropolitano BRT Extension to current the BRT system. The project will start preparing TORs and selecting consultants for preoperational activities no later than March 31, 2021.
EMAPE will To ensure the integration hire the firms between the extension and Quarterly for the current BRT system and (after preoperation the bus operations, the new launching EMAPE will hire the Integrated the Metropolitano BRT North al activities EMAPE and stations and terminal will be the firms and will report to Extension to the BRT system based on the and will Protransporte connected to the central preoperati Protransporte. preoperational plan report on the control, the bus onal progress to programming and dispatch activities) Protransport (trunk and feeder) will be e. upgraded with a new
operation plan, a software to manage bus programming for peak and off-peak hours in line with demand and bus fleet supply. The bus fleet programming will capture the efficiencies from the new infrastructure in terms of the rebalance of the demand, the reduction of
Page 56 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
the deadheading between the Chimpu Ocllo terminal and the use of the U-turns. The indicator measures level of satisfaction with the process of consulting people Participants living in the targeted project of stakeholder area during preparation and engagement activities implementation. During Satisfaction will fill out surveys after preparation, people's surveys to be each stakeholder feedback will be sought on conducted by engagement activity. consultation activities, such EMAPE/MML EMAPE will collect the Citizens reporting satisfaction with key as thematic workshops, Semiannua among surveys and analyze EMAPE/MML aspects of consultation process, public hearings, online l participants and report the results. disintegrated by gender consultations and of stakeholde The baseline will be information available on the r collected before works project. During engagement start. The survey implementation, people's activities requirement is included feedback will be sought on in the Stakeholder communication activities Engagement Plan. regarding the project's
progress and about feedback channels, including GRM. The project will finance Response Protransporte has an development and Protocol for operational information Harmonized Response Protocol to address implementation of a Gender cases of system that collects Semiannua cases of sexual harassment in the Action Plan (GAP) for sexual data on different Protransporte l Metropolitano BRT being used by Protransporte (and later for harassment complaints related to
Protransporte the ATU) with concrete developed the BRT service; actions to address women’s and however they are mobility barriers and statistical neither sex
Page 57 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
employment in the records of disaggregated nor Metropolitano BRT (COSAC sexual classified by topic. The and feeder buses). Activities harassment response Protocol to of the GAP will include cases address sexual revision of the existing identified harassment complaints Response Protocol. This and reported is under development. indicator tracks whether by users and The registration system Protransporte has responded co and response to sexual implemented revised nformly to harassment complaints Response Protocol to sexual the will be enhanced harassment. With the procedures through a new project's support, the of the Response Protocol that Protocol will be harmonized revised will facilitate with and linked to referral Response coordination between pathway and procedures Protocol. relevant agencies, while established under Law No. keeping the 30364. confidentiality and desires of the survivor at the center of the response. The target will be achieved if a) the Response Protocol is harmonized with the procedures under Law No. 30364 and with the highest standards on violence against women response and b) if the totality of the sexual harassment complaints in the BRT that reach
Page 58 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Protransporte and/or identified services aimed at responding to violence against women comply with the process defined in the Protocol.
The indicator tracks the Protransporte percentage of women maintains a database of employed in administrative Protransport staff, including women and operational positions in Semiannua e's human working in the Women employed in the Metropolitano Protransporte the Metropolitano BRT in l resource Metropolitano BRT BRT line with the Gender Action department system and will report Plan that will be developed on the indicator and implemented by semiannually. Protransporte. The workers of the construction firm for civil Construction works in the Metropolitano firm's Supervisory firm will BRT North Extension are records and report on the Construction workers in the required to sign the code of Semiannua reports compliance with signing Metropolitano BRT North Extension that Supervisory firm conduct and attend the l validated by the code of conduct have signed the code of conduct and code of conduct training for the and conducting the attended the code of conduct training the Metropolitano. The supervisory fi training. construction firm will need rm. to deliver this training to its employees. Implementation the environmental This indicator measures the 1) Independent The adequate 1. Expert hired by MML management measures for the project’s adequate implementation Six months reports implementation of the 2. Expert hired by green areas following the specifications of of the Vegetation after the carried out VMP will be Protransporte the approved final Vegetation Management Plan that removal by determined through: (i)
Page 59 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Management Plan covers two key stages of the and recognized site visits to the project project: relocation experts in area and parks in 1) preconstruction: with the of the first the field Comas where trees inventory, removal, and trees have been planted as relocation of trees currently 2) part of compensation located in the proposed Six months activities, and to the corridor, and planting of after the Bosque Educativo del new trees in Comas for installation Norte; (ii) revision of compensation; of the progress reports from 2) construction: the green SERPAR, MML/EMAPE, installation of the green areas along and from the areas in the BRT extension the supervison firm; (iii) corridor carried out by the corridor interviews with construction contractor residents of the area and the established local “supervision committees”
This indicator tracks the improvement of the Semiannua Protransport Completion towards Improved the capacity of Protransporte's Protransporte scheduling center. The l e target bus scheduling task team activity will cover hardware, software and training. This indicator will track progress on completing a diagnosis consultancy to Diagnosis and improvement of service identify processes, Semiannua Protransport Completion of study Protransporte plans, route scheduling, and bus strengths, weaknesses and l e
dispatch services completed roadmap for action to improve current scheduling, dispatch, control, monitoring and evaluation
Page 60 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
practices within trunks and feeders service provided by Protransporte The indicator will be considered completed once a new software and scheduling This indicator measures the methodology is in advance in implementing a State-of-the-art software and Semiannua Protransport place. This requires modern service scheduling Protransporte. methodology for scheduling feeder l e changing the methodology and software and trunk services implemented scheduling (for feeder and trunk methodology and routes) stopping the scheduling practice that solely relies on Excel.
This activity will require Protransporte to implement and feed a functional dashboard with at least the This indicator refers to the following implementation of an operational performanc Enhanced M&E framework for monitoring Semiannua Protransport operations M&E dashboard e KPI indicators: Protransporte operational performance indicators on l e to measure operational -On Time Performance: the Metropolitano BRT performance of the % of services departing Metropolitano BRT. on time -Reliability: % of dispatched services / scheduled services -% operated kms / scheduled kms
Page 61 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
-mean distance between failures (# fleet commercial kms/mechanical failures) -IPK -IPB -others
A measure will be This intermediate indicator considered as will track progress in Progress implemented once implementing operational Semiannua reports Protransporte (or its efficiencies supported by l (after prepared by equivalent) provides Protransporte Operational efficiencies implemented Project Subcomponent 1.b - completion Protransport written notice that the preoperational and of works). e for ISR. measure is live and transition activities for the operational in the integration to the current system. Metropolitano BRT.
An updated and upgraded feeder route service plan needs to be produced and An updated and upgraded implemented before feeder route service plan Semiannua Protransport the start of operations Updated and upgraded feeder-route needs to be produced and Protransporte l e of the extension. The service plan implemented before the service plan must start of operations of the include: -list of routes - extension. route characteristics (length, stops, cycle time) -headway or frequency -expected
Page 62 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
peak and off-peak hourly demand -bus typology Data should be provided in standardized and GTFS format.
An updated and upgraded trunk route service plan needs to be produced and implemented before the start of operations of the extension. The service plan must An updated and upgraded include: -list of routes - trunk route service plan Semiannua Protransport route characteristics needs to be produced and Protransporte Updated trunk service plan l e (length, stops, cycle implemented before the time) -headway or start of operations of the frequency -expected extension. peak and off-peak hourly demand -bus typology Data should be provided in standardized and GTFS format.
Implementation plan for an expanded, This indicator tracks the Semiannua Protransport Report completed and Protransporte integrated and improved the fare completion of a plan for an l e reviewed by the bank. collection system on the entire expanded, integrated and
Page 63 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Metropolitano BRT system improved fare collection system (Tiers 0-3). The improvements for the fare collection system should be specific on the implementation of tiers of the fare collection components: fare card media, field devices, onboard devices, integration devices:, ticket booths, recharging machines, turnstiles, media. This indicator will be This indicator will keep track measured through Integration and expansion of the of progress on the periodic progress existing Metropolitano BRT fare implementation plan for the Semiannua Protransport report submissions Protransporte collection system with the North fare collection system l e on the implementation Extension (including feeder routes) components to be installed of the fare collection completed in the new stations that are expansion strategy. part of the extension.
This indicator tracks the This indicator will be percentage of personalized reported by the fare active Metropolitano BRT collection agent. It will farecards (i.e. cards Protransport be calculated as the Share of personalized smart cards as associated to a specific, ID- Semiannua e, fare coefficient between Protransporte, fare % of total active smart cards for the matched user who l collection number of active collection agent. Metropolitano BRT system voluntarily enrolls in the agent. personalized cards personalization program) as divided by the total a percentage of total active number of active cards. Metropolitano BRT active will be defined as farecards. An active cards with a balance
Page 64 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
farecard, as defined by and used at least once Protransporte, is a card that, during the past 12 regardless of the existing months. balance, has been validated in any of the metropolitano BRT stations during the past 12 months prior to the date when the indicator is measured. ME IO Table SPACE
Page 65 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan
COUNTRY: Peru Lima Metropolitano BRT North Extension
1. This section describes the implementation arrangements for the proposed project. 2. Borrower is the Republic of Peru 3. Ministry of Economics and Finance (MEF) will be the Borrower’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, or any successor thereto acceptable to the Bank for the proposed project. The MEF will assume responsibility for debt service to the World Bank with resources that the Government of Peru (GoP) will allocate to it in the National General Budget. These resources are guaranteed by available future appropriations under Peruvian law. The GoP will provide a sovereign repayment guarantee. 4. The Lima-Callao Urban Transport Authority (ATU) is a national agency created in December 2018. Its main responsibilities are: urban transport planning, transport integration (physical, operational, and fare), infrastructure provision, service concession, and permitting and fare setting. The ATU has delegated to the MML the implementation of the proposed project. In addition, the ATU will be part of the TCC. 5. Metropolitan Municipality of Lima (MML). The MML will be responsible for implementation of the proposed project, including financial management and financial reporting. The MML will set up a Project Implementation Unit (PIU). The Budget Planning Office (BPO) and the Administrative Office (AO) within the MML will be responsible for performing sound financial management of the project, including preparing the supporting documentation for disbursement requests (withdrawal application, SOEs, etc.), verification of expenditures, and submission of financial reporting documents as required by the World Bank. The MML will be strengthened with qualified staff for this role, including a senior financial management specialist (this requirement will be a legal covenant). Its role and responsibility will be included in the POM. In addition, the MML will lead the TCC. 6. Empresa Municipal Administradora de Peaje de Lima (EMAPE). EMAPE will assist the MML in the implementation of the proposed project, including (a) procurement, works, and supervision of contracts; (b) support the implementation of the environmental and social risk management instruments; review and approval of payment requests and request for payment to the MML; as well as (c) data collection and reporting. The MML and EMAPE will set up a Technical Coordination Unit (TCU) with qualified staff. EMAPE will coordinate with other stakeholders, including Protransporte, the ATU, three municipalities, operating concessioners, organized groups, and users in the target area. EMAPE will report directly to the MML PIU and will be part of the TCC. The detailed roles and responsibilities are included in the POM. 7. The Instituto del Transporte of the MML (Protransporte) has managed BRT operations since 2011. If this agency has not been absorbed by the ATU, it will receive the assets and carry out the integration of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension with the BRT system, that includes: (a) the feeder routes reorganization plan in the area of influence of the Metropolitan BRT North Extension; and (b) optimization of a service plan for buses and quality of services, and the implementation of key performance indicators. 8. The proposed project will be implemented through the following arrangement: the proposed project adopts a robust implementation approach in which the ATU delegates the implementation of the project to the MML. The MML leads project execution as the PIU with the assistance of EMAPE and its TCU and will be responsible for the integration of the North Extension with the Metropolitano BRT system. The financial management of the proposed project will be the responsibility of the MML.
Page 66 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
9. The MML and EMAPE will create a TCU that will be: (a) carrying out technical, legal, monitoring and reporting, communications activities, and environmental and social risk management to facilitate project implementation (as detailed in ESIA-S and the ESCP); (b) preparing and regularly updating the program execution plan, the annual works plan, and the procurement plan, when necessary; (c) supporting the selection process for works, goods, and consulting services; (d) interfacing with the MML to prepare the budget for the proposed project; (e) supervising works and consultancy contracts and their compliance with the developed environmental and social instruments; and (f) monitoring progress based on the results framework and GRM, carrying out consultations and surveys, as well as reporting and communication. The TCU also carries out the following roles to ensure compliance with World Bank ESS: (a) ensures knowledge of and compliance with developed environmental and social instruments on works by the contractor and supervisor; (b) works with the municipalities to obtain all necessary permits, licenses, and authorizations; and (c) works closely with all government stakeholders, municipalities, consultants, works contractors, and community groups to ensure compliance with the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP), Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), and Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP). 10. To support preconstruction and construction phases, EMAPE will hire a core team for the TCU42, including a project coordinator, a contract manager, a monitoring and evaluation specialist, a senior financial management specialist, a senior procurement specialist, a senior BRT specialist, a senior planning specialist, a senior environmental and social specialist, an environmental specialist, a social specialist, a safety and health specialist, a monitoring and evaluation specialist, financial management assistant, communications specialist, and field staff to work proactively with local authorities (as is detailed in the POM and ESCP). The TCU core staff is expected to be hired within three months from the effective date (this requirement is a legal covenant). 11. Interagency coordination. Parallel to the TCU, a Technical Coordination Committee (TCC led by the MML, with technical staff from EMAPE, Protransporte, and the ATU will be established to ensure adequate coordination and support project implementation and its interfaces with the current Metropolitano BRT operations. The POM defines the role of the TCC, as well as the frequency of meetings. 12. The municipalities of Independencia, Comas, and Carabayllo will play an active role in the proposed project implementation. These municipalities will support the implementation of RAP and SEP activities (traffic detour management, green areas, vendor relocation, permits and approval for project implementation). Cooperation agreements have been signed between EMAPE and three of the four municipalities43 prior to carrying out preconstruction activities in each municipality. 13. Interinstitutional working groups (mesas institucionales de trabajo) will be set up with the municipalities, organized communities, and NGOs to discuss and address different topics, including traffic detours, road safety during construction, green areas, street vendors, etc. 14. The MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will hire a construction supervisor to strengthen the supervision of the construction and equipment. The supervisory firm will oversee the quality of works and progress, including the supervision of project ES aspects and the project equipment, and function as a technical interface and a conduit to transfer knowledge by coordinating interactions between the EMAPE TCU, municipalities, and civil works contractors. The firm will have a field-based supervision team, including an
42 The draft POM is being reviewed by the World Bank. 43 An agreement with the municipality of Los Olivos is not needed considering that the works will not take place in that jurisdiction. Los Olivos district is very close (100 meters from Terminal Naranjal) to the BRT and its residents are in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Page 67 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
environmental specialist, a social specialist, and a health and safety specialist. The supervision firm will report to EMAPE. 15. Operators. To run operations for the current Metropolitano BRT, Protransporte, under PPP schemes, has hired six operators: bus and transport service provision (four), gas provision (one), and automatic fare collection (one). The sustainability of these services is financed by the users’ fares.
Figure 1A.1 PIU (MML) and EMAPE Organizational Structure
Financial Management 16. A Financial Management (FM) assessment was carried out44 to evaluate the adequacy of the FM arrangements for the implementation of the proposed project. The MEF will allocate the budget for loan resources to the MML, which will be responsible for the management of project funds (loan and counterpart funds), including the Designated Bank Account, to implement the proposed project. These arrangements are included in the POM. Based on the risk, mitigation measures will be implemented by the MML and EMAPE.
44 In accordance with Financial Management Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing (February 4, 2015) and OP/BP 10.00.
Page 68 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
17. Project implementation will comply with Peru’s laws governing budget and financial management, including the use of SIAF (Sistema de Información Financiera) and the General Chart of Accounts established in SIAF. The General Comptroller’s Office will select the audit firm to audit the project. World Bank funds will be disbursed to a Designated Bank Account opened at Banco de la Nación and managed by the MML. 18. There is a higher inherent risk given the fact that this operation will take place at the subnational level. As highlighted in the Fiscal Transparency Evaluation of the International Monetary Fund (2015), the audit of the consolidated financial statements resulted in several disclaimers, particularly at the subnational level. The report revealed that the quality of accounts at the subnational level is a concern. All audits performed at the regional government level and 75 percent of audits performed at the local government level resulted in qualified or adverse opinions. 19. Based on the assessment, the main FM risks include:
(a) Delays in budget allocation from the MEF to the MML, as happened recently with other subnational entities, may delay implementation of activities; (b) Delays processing payments and submitting project financial reports given the lack of coordination between the MML and EMAPE; (c) Lack of recent45 experience of the MML in working with the World Bank’s funds; (d) Delay in recruiting additional fiduciary staff with the capacity to rapidly get acquainted with FM guidelines to avoid situations of ineligible expenditures. 20. In order to mitigate the fiduciary risk, the following measures will be considered. Prior to negotiations, the MEF and the MML have provided: (a) The delegation agreement between the ATU and the MML. (b) The MEF will follow the national budget legal framework to ensure the availability of resources for the project. The MML will incorporate the project’s budget into MML’s budget to be approved by the MML’s Council Committee. (c) A legal arrangement between the MML and EMAPE, defining the EMAPE’s assistance role and responsibilities; (d) A definition of terms of reference for the fiduciary staff and hiring qualified financial management specialists; (e) A definition of the format of the project’s financial reports; (f) A satisfactory draft version of the FM chapter of the POM, including the formats and the identification of key controls that need to be strengthened and adapted considering the project’s design. 21. Dated covenant. No later than three months after the effectiveness date, the MML and EMAPE will recruit key fiduciary staff (a senior financial management specialist at the MML PIU and a financial management specialist at EMAPE TCU). 22. Considering the project’s complex institutional arrangements and the abovementioned risks and challenges, the FM risk is rated substantial at entry. The overall conclusion of this assessment is that once the mitigating measures have been put in place and the pending activities under staffing, budget, accounting, reporting, and internal controls are properly implemented, the proposed FM arrangements will meet the World Bank’s minimum fiduciary requirements.
45 The MML in the past implemented the Metropolitano BRT Project-P035740 financed by the World Bank.
Page 69 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Organization and Staffing 23. The MML will lead the fiduciary role with the assistance of EMAPE. The financial management aspects of the proposed project will be managed by the Financial Management Unit of the MML, which includes a Programming and Planning Office, Budget, Accounting and Treasurer Offices. These units of the MML have staff that are qualified and experienced in managing local funds; however, it is necessary to strengthen the MML with a senior financial specialist who has experience working with multilateral funds. The MML will mandate EMAPE’s assistance for the implementation of the proposed project. EMAPE will assist by approving works and other vendors’ invoices and requesting the respective payments from the MML. To strengthen this assistance, the MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will hire a financial management specialist. The selection of fiduciary staff will be under terms of reference approved by the World Bank and selection will require the World Bank’s approval. 24. The POM established specific roles and responsibilities for the participant entities. A final draft version of the POM was submitted to the World Bank during negotiations. A legal arrangement between the ATU and the MML has established the roles and responsibilities for the delegation for project implementation, which it is detailed in the POM. Planning and Budgeting 25. The preparation of an annual works program and budget will be in accordance with the procedures established by the MEF through its General Public-Sector Budget Office (Dirección General de Presupuesto Público). These procedures will be complemented by specific processes and procedures established in the POM (preparation of an annual operating plan with an at least semiannual budget, including all sources of financing: IBRD and counterpart funds). The MML will be responsible for coordinating the budget proposal for both resources of funds. The MML will assign the municipal resources and request the MEF to allocate the loan resources, considering that the MEF is the Borrower. Therefore, the current legal framework for external financing establishes the responsibilities of the MEF and the recipient of the resources (MML). 26. To ensure an adequate budget control, the MML will be responsible for: (a) Timely provision of resources for each year established in the work plan, and budget formulation and approval; (b) Proper recording of the approved budget in the respective information systems following a classification by project component/subcomponent; and (c) Timely recording of commitments, accruals, and payments to allow adequate budget monitoring and provide accurate information on project commitments for programming purposes.
Accounting and Information System 27. The MML must comply with Peru’s laws governing budget management and FM, including the use of SIAF and the General Chart of Accounts established in SIAF. The project’s accounting and payment transactions will be recorded in SIAF. Considering the nature of project activities and information needs for monitoring, the MML will complement the SIAF with the module of project execution (Módulo de Ejecución del Proyecto, or MEP) for further issuance of financial reports and prepare statements of expenditure (SOEs), according to the project components, in U.S. dollars for submission to the World Bank.
Page 70 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Financial Reporting 28. The MML will prepare the interim financial reports (IFRs) using the MEP module of SIAF. These IFRs will include a statement of sources and uses of funds, including reconciling items (as needed) and cash balances, with expenditures classified by project component/subcomponent/category; and a statement of cumulative funds, reporting the current semester and the accumulated operations against the component of ongoing plans and footnotes explaining the important variances. The IFRs will include loan proceeds and counterpart funds. The IFRs will be prepared in local currency and in U.S. dollars and submitted to the World Bank on a semiannual basis no later than 45 days after the end of each calendar semester. A template of the IFRs has been submitted to the World Bank by appraisal. On an annual basis, the MML will also prepare project financial statements, including a statement of source and use of funds, cumulative figures for the beginning of the year and as of the end of the year, and explanatory notes in accordance with International Public Sector Accounting Standards. The financial statements, duly audited in accordance with the World Bank’s requirements, will be submitted to the World Bank within six months after the end of the calendar year (December 31). Working papers for the preparation of the semiannual and annual financial statements will be maintained by the PIU and made easily accessible to World Bank supervision missions and external auditors. Internal Controls and Audit 29. Internal controls. Overall, the MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will have to comply with national requirements related to FM, including internal controls and procedures. In addition, the World Bank will review and agree with both entities on specific roles, processes, segregation of responsibilities, approval procedures, and processing of payments to suppliers. Service providers for all components of the proposed project will be reviewed and agreed with the World Bank and reflected in the POM. 30. Internal audit. The MML and EMAPE’s organizational structure includes an Internal Control Office (Oficina de Control Interno, or OCI) whose staff is designated by the General Comptroller’s Office (CGR) according to the Organic Law of the National System of Control and General Comptroller of the Republic (Ley Orgánica del Sistema Nacional de Control y de la Contraloría General de la República). The OCI is responsible for oversight of the activities in public entities. It may play a role in safeguarding the project’s internal control and whenever possible the team will use its reports as part of the regular project’s supervision and monitoring activities. External Audit 31. Annual audit reports on project financial statements, including management letters, should be submitted to the World Bank within six months of the end of the Borrower’s fiscal year (December 31). The audit should be conducted by an independent audit firm acceptable to the World Bank and under terms of reference approved by the World Bank. The selection of the audit firm should be performed through the General Comptroller’s Office. The audit cost can be financed out of loan proceeds. The MML will define the scope of the audit in agreement with the World Bank based on project-specific requirements and responding, as appropriate, to identified risks, including a management letter and review of compliance with agreed processes and procedures. Audit requirements would include those listed in Table 1A.1. Table 1A.1 Audit Due Dates
Audit Type Due Date Project financial statements June 30
Page 71 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Disbursements The proposed project’s flow of funds is presented in the following figure: Figure 1A.2 Flow of Funds
32. The World Bank loan proceeds will follow the World Bank’s disbursement policies and procedures, as described in the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter (DFIL). The World Bank will disburse the loan proceeds using advance, reimbursement, and direct payment methods. 33. The loan funds will be managed only by the MML. A Designated Account (DA) in U.S. dollars will be opened and maintained in Banco de la Nación by the MML, which will have direct access to funds advanced by the World Bank to the respective DA. Funds deposited into the DA as advances will follow the World Bank’s disbursement policies and procedures, to be described in the legal agreements and the DFIL. To process payments, the MML will be able to withdraw the required amount from its respective DA to a local currency bank account from which payments will be made to consultants’ and suppliers’ bank accounts. The payment process and procedures will be established in the POM. Counterpart Funds 34. The MML will manage the counterpart funds for the proposed project using the Single Treasury Account established by the government. Funds for the proposed project will be identified with a specific project code and account in SIAF to process payments. Retroactive Financing 35. No retroactive financing amount has been considered for the proposed project.
Page 72 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Disbursement Methods 36. The following disbursement methods may be used to withdraw funds from the loan: (a) Advance method. The DAs will have a flexible ceiling based on quarterly forecast. (b) Direct payment. The minimum application size for direct payment requests would be US$1,000,000. (c) Reimbursement method. The minimum application size for the reimbursement method would be US$1,000,000. Supporting Documentation 37. SOE. Supporting documentation for documenting project expenditures under the disbursement methods authorized for the project should be in accordance with the provisions established under the DFIL. Disbursement Deadline Date 38. The disbursement deadline date is four months after the closing date specified in the loan agreement. Any changes to this date will be notified by the World Bank. Disbursement Categories 39. Loan proceeds will be disbursed against the expenditure categories detailed in Table 1A.2.
Table 1A.2 Loan Proceeds (US$) Category Amount of the Loan Percentage of Expenditures to be Allocated financed (expressed in USD) (exclusive of Taxes) (1) Goods, works, non-consulting services, consulting services and 92,500,000 100% Training for the Project (2) Resettlement Expenditures 100% 500,000 TOTAL AMOUNT 93,000,000
Supervision Plan 40. On a preliminary basis, the World Bank plans to conduct at least two supervision missions a year, while also reviewing the annual audit reports and the semester IFRs.
Procurement 41. Procurement activities will be carried out according to the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers issued in July 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018, for the supply of works, goods, and non-consulting and consultant services under the project. The World Bank’s Standard Procurement Documents will govern the procurement of World Bank-financed Open International Competitive Procurement. For procurement involving National Open Competitive Procurement, and other methods, the documents will be agreed with the World Bank. 42. The World Bank carried out a procurement capacity assessment of EMAPE. The assessment analyzed mainly the organizational structure, staffing, and procurement systems that are in place in EMAPE to determine the
Page 73 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
risks and mitigation measures. The assessment concluded that EMAPE has no previous experience working with World Bank-financed projects and has no experience in bidding for complex and/or high-value contracts. A mitigation plan to strengthen the procurement capacity of EMAPE includes: (a) hire a qualified professional with experience in procurement of high-value/complex contracts, and contract execution; and (b) develop a detailed contract management plan. Based on the analysis conducted, it was determined that the procurement risk is rated as substantial. 43. EMAPE has completed a full Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). The PPSD will focus on the high-risk and high-value works contract under Component 1, namely “BRT infrastructure and equipment.” The contract will include several activities, such as: (a) construction of 10.2 kilometers of segregated BRT lanes; (b) construction of 17 passenger stations; (c) construction of two pedestrian bridges; (d) construction of one bus terminal; (d) upgrade of a wastewater treatment plan; (e) installation of equipment and technology to support operations and control of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension; and (f) preoperational activities for integration into the current Metropolitano BRT. As an advance of the PPSD, EMAPE has concluded that given the high value and complexity of the contract, the most suitable approach is to conduct a prequalification process, followed by a request for bids process. Also, the preliminary analysis concluded that the most appropriate market approach is an international competitive process. EMAPE published (on June 14, 2019) the prequalification documents previously approved by the World Bank. However, based on Peruvian regulations, the bidding process will be launched only after the loan agreement is signed. 44. The selection of the supervision of the works for the construction is in progress. A consultant firm (construction supervisor) will be selected through a Quality and Cost-Based Selection (QCBS). And the Terms of Reference (TOR) submitted by EMAPE (on behalf the MML) has been reviewed by the World Bank’s technical team. 45. Procurement Plan. In accordance with Paragraph 5.9 of the Procurement Regulations, the World Bank’s Systematic Tracking and Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) system will be used to prepare, clear, and update procurement plans and conduct all procurement transactions for the project. The procurement plan has been prepared by the Borrower in accordance with the results provided by the PPSD and will be agreed with the World Bank as part of the negotiations. A summary of PPSD will include a recommended procurement approach for higher-risk/value contracts.
Monitoring and Evaluation 46. The MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will be responsible for project monitoring and evaluation. The MML will prepare quarterly reports detailing the financial results. The MML is responsible for reporting physical progress of the activities to the World Bank, including citizen engagement and environmental and social aspects, as stated in the project’s ESCP. Progress on compliance with project ES aspects will be detailed in quarterly reports, as specified in the ESCP. The structure of these reports will be detailed in the POM. 47. The PDO and the indicators have been set in coordination with the MML and EMAPE during appraisal. The MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will furnish to the World Bank and to General Directorate of Public Investment (DGIP - Dirección General de Inversión Pública) a project report no later than 45 days after the end of each calendar semester, covering the calendar semester. The MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will consolidate the data at the project level and produce quarterly and semiannual reports to monitor progress towards achieving the PDO. These reports will indicate the progress made under the different components and measure performance against the indicators established in the results framework. The progress reports
Page 74 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
will allow better monitoring of the implementation of agreed activities by also providing information on: (a) investment and disbursement performance over the period covered by the report and an updated disbursement calendar; (b) procurement performance and an updated procurement plan under each of the components and subcomponents of the project; (c) accounting and FM performance; (d) progress in the implementation of the ESCP; (e) potential developments that could affect project implementation, including a review of the main risks and the impact of mitigation measures envisioned at appraisal, as well progress with implementation of loan covenants; and (f) other operational and administrative information judged relevant by the MML, EMAPE, or the World Bank team. During project implementation, the MML, with the assistance of EMAPE, will monitor the performance of the relocated informal vendors’ business. The second semiannual report of each calendar year should include an annual operation plan for the following year. 48. The MML, jointly with the World Bank, will carry out a midterm review, which shall cover the progress achieved in the implementation of the project, and following such midterm review, act promptly and diligently to take any corrective action as shall be agreed by the World Bank.
Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support 49. The implementation of the proposed project will require substantial support and strong supervision from the World Bank task team. The MML and EMAPE have critical weaknesses in technical, environmental, social, and procurement areas. They will need strong results-oriented implementation support from the World Bank during the first 12 months of the project. Implementation support will consist of the regular semiannual full supervision missions by the World Bank team; meetings and audio conferences between the World Bank team, EMAPE, the MML, and other relevant stakeholders (Protransporte, the ATU, municipalities, etc.); revision of quarterly reports and provision of recommendations; and close coordination with World Bank staff based in Peru. Through supervision missions, the team will carry out field visits to major construction sites and hold meetings with key stakeholders. Additional support will be provided by the World Bank’s procurement, financial management, and ESS specialists. Implementation support will emphasize the quality of the terms of reference for works contracts of the project, a strategy for the implementation of the SEP and RAP, and the implementation of the ESIA-S with its correspondent management plans and the ESCP. The Implementation Support Plan will be reviewed at least once a year to ensure that it continues to meet the implementation support needs of the project and the PDO.
Implementation Support Plan 50. Strategic support: Supervision missions will meet with national and local authorities to: (a) review progress on the project’s activities towards achieving the project objectives; (b) discuss strategic alignment of the project with relevant stakeholders; (c) promptly address any deviations from good project implementation; and (d) evaluate progress on crosscutting issues, such as monitoring and evaluation, training, communication, dissemination of project results and experiences, and coordination among relevant stakeholders. 51. Technical support: Supervision will focus on ensuring the technical quality of bidding documents and evaluation reports, and review construction plans, as well as ensuring integration of ESS, road safety, and universal accessibility and gender considerations into works and activities. The World Bank will ensure that the MML and EMAPE have adequate technical capacity, including road safety experts, on their staff. During construction and commissioning, technical supervision will be provided to ensure that technical contractual
Page 75 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
obligations are met. The team’s engineer will conduct regular site visits during project implementation and involve technical specialists as needed. 52. Fiduciary support: Periodic supervision of procurement and financial management aspects will be provided by the World Bank team. In particular, the World Bank’s team will (a) perform desk reviews of project IFRs and audit reports, following up on any issues raised by auditors, as appropriate; (b) look into the operation of the control systems and arrangements described in this assessment; (c) update the FM rating in the FM Implementation Support and Status Report (FMISSR), as needed, (d) provide training and guidance on the conduct of procurement processes in compliance with the Procurement and Anti-Corruption Guidelines and the POM; (e) work with the MML and EMAPE to enhance capacity in procurement and financial management to facilitate project implementation; (f) review procurement documents and provide timely feedback to EMAPE; and (g) help monitor project progress against the procurement plan. Supervision of both the procurement and financial management aspects of the project will be carried out semiannually during the regularly scheduled World Bank supervision missions, with continued contact between these visits as needed. 53. Environmental and Social Risk Management support: The World Bank has been supporting the Borrower in preparing the Environmental and Social Risk Management instruments required by the ESF. These instruments include the complementary ESIA-S, RAP, LMP document, SEP, and the ESCP. The World Bank has been working closely with the Borrower during preparation and will continue its support throughout project implementation to ensure that relevant standards are adhered to in the project. ESS specialists will participate in a World Bank implementation support mission at least twice a year and will maintain close communication with the Borrower in the interim periods.
Table 1A.3 Main Focus in Terms of Support to Implementation
Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Estimate Project management and project First 12 months Team leaders 10 implementation support coordination Social standards Social specialist 10 Environmental standards Environmental specialist 10 Technical and quality procurement review Task team leader, technical of Terms of Reference, technical reports, specialists, procurement 12 and bidding documents specialist, and FM Procurement review of bidding Procurement specialist 4 weeks documents FM supervision FM specialist 4 per year Gender related activities Gender specialist 2 per year Road safety and traffic management Road safety specialist 2 per year Contract execution and contract Task team leader, technical 12-36 months 12 per year management specialists
Page 76 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Table 1A.4 Skills Mix Required
Skills Needed Number of Staff Weeks Number of Trips Comments Team leaders 8 4 Headquarters BRT specialist 8 3 LHeadquarters Environmental specialist 4 0 Lima Social specialist 5 0 Lima Procurement specialist 4 0 Lima Financial management specialist 4 0 Lima Legal counsel 1 0 Lima Gender specialist 2 1 Headquarters Road safety specialists 6 2 Headquarters, Lima
Page 77 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 2: Detailed Project Description
1. The proposed project will be implemented under two components:
Component 1: BRT infrastructure and equipment (civil works, traffic lights, technological component, supervision; road safety and universal access; and preoperational component and route management)46 (IBRD: US$92 million, MML: US$25 million; Total: US$117 million) (see Map 6A.2 in Annex 6). This component will finance: (a) Provision of support for the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, including, inter alia: (i) (1) construction of 10.2 kilometers of segregated busways between Terminal Naranjal (located within the territorial jurisdictions of the Municipalities of Independencia, Comas and Carabayllo) and the new Terminal Chimpu Ocllo (located within the territorial jurisdiction of the Municipality of Carabayllo), 17 passenger stations, 21 pedestrian crossings, two pedestrian footbridges, and one bus terminal; (2) expansion of the existing bus depot (located in the Sinchi Roca Park)47; (3) installation of road safety signaling; and (4) upgrading of the wastewater treatment plant and installation of a technified irrigation system; (ii) installation of equipment and technology to support BRT operations and traffic control; (iii) carrying out of complementary works for the removal of utilities by replacing water and sanitation mains in some intersections of the extended corridor mentioned herein; (iv) implementation of environmental and social instruments; and (v) carrying out of supervision of the works and services mentioned in (i) through (iv) herein. The travel lanes, stations, bridges, and bus terminal will be implemented with consideration for road safety, personal security, gender and universal accessibility, including for economically disadvantaged groups, women, and people with disabilities. In addition, project designs will incorporate best practices in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The technical designs and environmental assessment have been approved by the authorities. The environmental and social aspects of the proposed project have been evaluated and complemented to meet the World Bank’s environmental and social standards (ESS). The acquisition of land and the implementation of the RAP costs will be financed by the MML. The World Bank loan will finance certain expenditures related to land acquisition (including compensation for acquisition of land and other fixed property related to the implementation of a resettlement instrument) or cash compensation and other assistance paid in cash for involuntary resettlement
46 Based in the records of the public investment project “Ampliación del Tramo Norte del COSAC I desde la Estacion Naranjal hast la Av Chimpu Ocllo, en los distritos de Comas y Carabayllo, Provincia de Lima – Lima SNIP Nº 269505.” 47 The team has carried out legal due diligence on the the legal habilitation for the expansion of the bus depot in the Sinchi Roca Park area. The Borrower, through the MML, submitted the following documents: (i) Letter No. 131-2019-MML/IMPL/GG, dated August 22, 2019, attaching Legal Report No. 375-2019-MML/IMPL/OAJ, dated August 19, 2019; (ii) Letter No. 140-2019-MML/IMPL/GG, dated September 6, 2019, attaching Legal Report No. 413-2019-MML/IMPL/OAJ, of the same date, which complements Legal Report No. 375-2019- MML/IMPL/OAJ; and (iii) Letter No. 151-2019-MML/IMPL/GG, dated October 25, 2019, attaching Legal Report No. 507-2019- MML/IMPL/OAJ. The legal opinions referred to herein contain the following acknowledgements and representations to the World Bank: (a) that the existing bus depot and its planned expansion within the SRP are in line with applicable national laws; and (b) that: (A) the Acuerdos of the Municipal Council No. 121-2009, No. 144-2010 and No. 212-2017 (the “Acuerdos”), which provide the technical and legal foundation for the use of the existing bus depot and its planned expansion within the SRP, are conclusive with respect to compliance with Article 41 of Ordenanza Municipal No. 1852 for the Conservation and Management of Green Areas in the Lima Province (Ordenanza Municipal No. 1852), among other legal requirements (see Legal Report No. 375-2019-MML/IMPL/OAJ); (B) the Acuerdos constitute government acts with full legal validity, which, as of today, have not been reconsidered or formally challenged (see Legal Report No. 375- 2019-MML/IMPL/OAJ); (C) there has not been a change in zone use for the portion of land destined to the bus depot and its planned expansion because the allocated portion is aligned with Articles 8 and 41 Ordenanza Municipal No. 1852 (see Legal Report No. 413-2019- MML/IMPL/OAJ); and (D) the Explanatory Technical Report and a Semi-Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment for the expansion of the bus depot were approved by Ministerial Resolution No. 582-2018—MTC, dated October 10, 2018, and Ministerial Resolution No. 106- 2018-MTC, dated February 20, 2018, respectively, both issued by the General Directorate of Environmental and Social Affairs of the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MTC), with favorable opinion issued by the Directorate of Environmental Management of the MTC.
Page 78 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
resulting from the activities under the proposed project. The total loan amount requested to be set aside for these proposed expenditures is US$500,000. (b) Optimization of the BRT operations and services, led by Protransporte, inter alia: (i) the preparation of a preoperational plan for the integration of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension with the current Metropolitano BRT system; (ii) feeder and trunk components: diagnosis and improvement of service plans, route scheduling, and bus dispatch services; (iii) state-of-the-art software and methodology for scheduling and dispatching feeder and trunk services; (iv) the enhancement of the M&E framework for monitoring operational performance indicators on the Metropolitano BRT; (v) the development of a personalization module for the Metropolitano BRT smart card system48; (vi) the carrying out of quality of service surveys; and (vii) the provision of training and preparation of emergency response plans (see paragraph 29 in Section III of the PAD and Section 2(d) of Annex 2 for more detail). Component 2: Project management and environmental and social management (IBRD: US$1 million, MML: US$5 million: Total US$6 million). This component will finance: (a) Project management, including inter alia: (i) institutional/technical strengthening of the MML PIU and the TCU; (ii) hiring of project staff; (iii) carrying out of financial management (including project audits), procurement, disbursement, monitoring and evaluation activities; and (iv) carrying out of assessments on the project indicators measuring performance and road safety.
(b) Environmental and social management, including inter alia: (i) implementation of the ESCP and the management tools and instruments referred to therein (including the provision of financing of resettlement expenditures); (ii) provision of training to support the implementation of the ESS and on international good practices to mitigate environmental and social risks; and (iii) development and implementation of a Gender Action Plan (GAP) for the MML with concrete actions to address women’s mobility barriers and employment in the Metropolitano BRT.
Activities of the GAP will include revision of the existing response protocol and reporting mechanisms (see Section IV.E of the PAD), training for operational staff, assessment of ongoing communication campaigns, interinstitutional collaboration, bringing gender analysis into upcoming policies such as fare integration and supporting the ATU in the development of a Non-Discrimination and Equal Opportunities Policy, as well as definition of activities to reduce/remove barriers that women face to work as bus drivers and in other positions in the Metropolitano BRT.
48 Protransporte will integrate the existing Metropolitano BRT fare collection system with the new stations on the North Extension (including feeder routes).
Page 79 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Table 1. Summary of Project Costs and Sources of Financing
Component Content IBRD MML Total (US$ (US$ (US$
Million) Million) Million) BRT infrastructure and equipment (civil works, traffic lights, technological component, supervision; road safety and universal access; and 92 25 117 1 preoperational component and route management) a. Including 10.2 km of segregated bidirectional bus lanes, 17 new passenger stations, 21 pedestrian crossings, 3 bus U turns, bus depot expansion, a new terminal at Chimpu Ocllo, equipment, and 90 24 114 supervision of civil works, upgrade of the wastewater treatment plant and installation of a technified irrigation system) b. Optimization of the BRT operations and services 2 1 3 2 Project management and environmental and social management 1 5 6 a. Project management 0.5 1.5 2 b. Environmental and social management 0.5 3.5 4 Total 93 30 123
2. Description of civil works for Metropolitano BRT North Extension. The engineering designs of the infrastructure activities under Component 1 include the following features:
(a) Road safety considerations to meet international standards. A road infrastructure safety assessment has been carried out by the World Bank to audit the designs for safety for all road users (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and vehicle occupants) to identify and mitigate road safety risks during the project’s operational phase. Relevant recommendations have been incorporated in the bidding documents in order to be implemented during construction. The proposed project will finance infrastructure and equipment to improve road safety, such as well-designed roundabouts, speed humps, raised pedestrian platform crossings, curb extensions, automated speed and red-light enforcement cameras. The target is to cover all the four lanes, including auxiliary road, on each side and the two central lanes, totaling 10.2 kilometers with the infrastructure and/or equipment designed to reduce speeds. (b) Universal accessibility. An accessibility assessment was carried out by the World Bank to recommend technical improvements to the project design in terms of universal accessibility in public spaces oriented to transport. The proposed interventions targeted passengers with reduced mobility, perception difficulties, cognitive limitations, and pregnant women or women with baby carriages. Interventions to improve universal accessibility include the following:
(i) On an urban scale, at the crosswalks, the accessible width of the roads and intermediate guards will be equal to the full width of the crosswalk. Moreover, the elevators’ design will be adapted to increase women’s security and to meet their needs. (ii) As for urban furniture, new bollard designs, single-mouth litter bins, benches, pedestrian safety grills with a non-scalable design, protected base corks, and ischiatic supports for bus stops will be implemented.
Page 80 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
(iii) In the stations, handrails will be changed to vertical tubes and ticket offices will have a maximum height of 1.10 meters. Moreover, convex safety mirrors will improve the visibility of the stations’ stairs. For the corridor modules, raised flowerpots will be replaced with flowerpots at floor level. At the terminal, the taps, towel racks, soap dish height will also be replaced and adapted to meet the needs of different types of passengers or users.
(c) The proposed project will include the necessary equipment to monitor the system.
(i) Roadway monitoring and management: video surveillance system and electrical wiring and fiber optics cables. (ii) Road signaling according to the Peruvian transport’s standards for traffic light control system and urban facilities.
(d) The proposed project will finance preoperational activities for the integration of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension with the current system. To ensure the integration between the extension and the current Metropolitano BRT system and the bus operations, the new stations and Terminal Chimpu Ocllo will be connected to the central control, the bus programming and dispatch (trunk and feeder) will be upgraded based on the new operation plan, a software will be implemented to manage bus programming for peak and off-peak hours in line with the demand and bus fleet supply. The bus fleet programming will capture the efficiencies from the new infrastructure in terms of rebalancing demand, the reduction of deadheading between the Terminal Chimpu Ocllo, and the use of the U-turns. In addition, the proposed project will finance the improvement of the quality of service (wait time at stations, frequencies, safety and personal security) monitoring system and surveys to collect, process, and manage feedback from users for decision making on quality of services.
Geometric Design
3. Alignment. The Metropolitano BRT North Extension layout starts in the north roundabout of Terminal Naranjal in Independencia District. It will continue through Avenida Metropolitana until its intersection with Avenida Universitaria where the proposed lanes continue to the Avenida Chimpu Ocllo.
Figure 2A.1 North Roundabout of Naranjal Figure 2A.2 Final Station at Chimpu Ocllo
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
Page 81 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
4. Segregated bi-directional busways (BRT lanes), mixed traffic lanes, and auxiliary roads. The segregated busways are placed in an urban area and their technical specifications are based on A Policy on Geometric Design of Highway and Streets (AASHTO-2004) Standards. Changes to the specifications proposed in the design are expected based on the universal accessibility assessment and the road safety audit.
Figure 2A.3 Typical Section and Floor Plan
General specifications: − BRT COSAR corridor speed: 60 km/h − COSAC I lane width: 4.50 m − Main roads: 3.60 m − Stations platform: 5 m − Shoulders: 1 m to 3 m − Articulated bus − Stations length: 121 m to 170 m − Number of stations: 17 − Distance between stations: 500 m − 21 pedestrian crossings49 − Pavements: 28-30 cm thick50
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
5. Stations’ design. The proposed project includes two different types of stations and one transfer station called La Universidad station. Station Type 1 (5 meters wide) has a pedestrian ramp, an integrated control and reception module, and a boarding module (Figure 2A.4). Station Type 2 (5 meters wide), has two pedestrian ramps on both sides of the station, one integrated control and reception module, two boarding modules, and a central roofless corridor (Figure 2A.5).
Figure 2A.4 Typical Longitudinal Elevation Type 1
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
49 The average distance between pedestrian walkways is 500-600 meters. Lighting and traffic lights at all road crossing are integrated in the system. 50 Pavements have a rugged structure and a long, resistant, and highly efficient design. The condition of the pavements will deliver excellent performance during the lifespan of the different lanes, taking into account the geometrical conditions, the soil behavior, and the current and projected traffic. There are four types of pavements (Flexible Type 1, 2, and 3, and Rigid) and their thickness varies between 28 centimeters and 30 centimeters.
Page 82 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Figure 2A.5 Typical Longitudinal Elevation Type 2
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
6. Universidad transfer station. This is 5-meter-wide transfer station, which has two pedestrian ramps on both sides, a reinforced concrete frame building at control and reception areas, two boarding modules, two pedestrian bridges and ramps (Figure 2A.6). This station will serve a high demand of passengers, including pedestrians from four colleges located near the station.
Figure 2A.6 Longitudinal Section Type 1 Transfer Station La Universidad
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
7. Terminal Chimpu Ocllo. This is a 6.60-meter-wide terminal made up of three boarding modules separated by two corridors. The terminal includes sanitary facilities, escalators, and a passenger metal bridge that connects the building entrance with the platform area (Figure 2A.7).
Figure 2A.7 Longitudinal Elevation at Terminal Chimpu Ocllo
Source: project designs, SNIP Nº 269505
8. Bus depot and workshop area. The area for the expansion of the bus depot is bordered by the current depot (or patio taller Chimpu Ocllo), Avenida Universitaria, Avenida Los Incas, and Sinchi Roca Park. The current bus depot and workshop area (80,000 m2 approximately) includes an administrative building, workshop area, depot area, natural gas center, and bus washing center. The expansion (22,480.05 m2) includes a new platform, an administrative building, an area for additional fleet (77 buses), and three control cabins. 9. Execution of the proposed project implementation and traffic detour. The GoP approved the engineering designs and the environmental and social license in 2018. The implementation of works will take one year. Sections 1 and 2 will be simultaneously implemented three months before Sections 3 and 4. During the Metropolitano BRT North Extension construction and temporary work, current road traffic on Avenida Metropolitana and Avenida Universitaria will be diverted to the auxiliary lanes. A physical fence and traffic
Page 83 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
signs will define the perimeter of the work site. Additionally, all temporary detours and work will be previously announced. The traffic plan and detours will be prepared by the contractor. 10. Wastewater treatment. The wastewater treatment plant placed in Avenida Universitaria at the intersection with Avenida Chimpu Ocllo collects sewage from the Lima Water and Sewage Service (SEDAPAL). The plant has a current capacity of 3 liters per second (Lps) and will be upgraded to 6 Lps to provide water for the maintenance of the green areas in the corridor. 11. Tree planting and an automated irrigation system. Under the project, 1,522 trees will be relocated to Bosque de Ancón and 1,981 new trees will be planted along the corridor of the project area. Approximately 100,000 m2 of green area will be replaced or planted.
Page 84 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 3: Job Accessibility Analysis for the North Extension of Lima Metropolitano BRT
Introduction 1. This annex aims to examine the impact of the proposed Metropolitano BRT North Extension project on job accessibility for citizens that take public transport to their jobs. The impact has been measured based on the number of additional jobs that citizens can access using public transport (bus, BRT, and Metro) within 60 minutes during the morning rush hour. The area of influence covered in this analysis includes the four districts that the Metropolitano BRT North Extension goes through: Comas, Independencia, Los Olivos, and the urbanized area in Carabayllo, as presented in 2. Figure 3A.1. The Metropolitano BRT North Extension will be 10.2 kilometers in length and cover North Lima. It will extend the Metropolitano BRT corridor to 34 kilometers.
Figure 3A.1 Area of Influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension
Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank. Overview of Input Data and Methodology Census Data 3. Demographic data for this analysis was provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Informatic (Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, or INEI) from the 2007 census, which was updated in 2010. The data are georeferenced with the granularity of census block level as shown in Figure 3A.2. INEI provided the poverty data for each district from the 2017 census through the Population with Unsatisfied Basic Needs (Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas, or NBI) index. 4. Population and jobs. As presented in Figure 3A.2, the Metropolitano BRT North Extension runs along the corridor that has the highest population density in northern Lima, which has a population of 1,460,000 (Los Olivos, Independencia, Comas, and the urban areas of Carabayllo). The overall population density in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension is 1.6 times the overall population density in Lima (15,613 people/km2). There are about 1.4 million jobs in Lima which are concentrated in Central Lima along the current Metropolitano BRT corridor. In the project’s area of influence, the highest job density is in Los
Page 85 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Olivos along the west side of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension around Terminal Naranjal (in the north end of the current Metropolitano BRT). The project’s area of influence is an emerging area for economic development in Lima that will attract more jobs and inhabitants in the coming years. Figure 3A.2 Spatial Distribution of Population Density (Left) and Job Density (Right) in Lima
Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank.
5. Poverty. While the project’s area of influence has a high population density, the poverty rate in the area is much higher than the overall poverty rate in Lima. The map on the left in Figure 3A.3 shows the spatial distribution of poverty density in Lima. The poverty rate in the four provinces that are in the project’s area of influence is much higher than the average in Lima. The district of Independencia has a poverty rate of 66.7 percent, the highest among the four districts. Figure 3A.3 Spatial Distribution of Poverty Density in Lima and Unsatisfied Basic Needs in the Area of Influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension
Source: INEI, Población Censada con al Menos Una Necesidad Básicas Insatisfechas, 2017, processed by the World Bank.
Page 86 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Job Accessibility Indicator 6. There are many well-documented methodologies for estimating job accessibility. One intuitive method is to present the total number of jobs accessible from a given origin by a specified travel mode within a travel time limit. Thus, two indicators for the area of influence were used to evaluate job accessibility for this analysis: a) Job accessibility: The average percentage of jobs accessible from each location over the total number of jobs in the area. 푁 1 퐽푛 퐴 = ∙ ∑ 푁 퐽푡표푡 푛=1 where • 퐽푛 is the number of jobs accessible from location 푛 • 퐽푡표푡 is the total number of jobs in the area of influence • 푁 is the total number of locations in the area of influence
b) Population weighted job accessibility: The percentage of jobs accessible from a location over the total number of jobs in the area, weighted by the population in each location.
푁 ∑푛=1 퐴푛 ∙ 푝푛 퐴푤푒𝑖𝑔ℎ푡푒푑 = 푁 ∑푛=1 푝푛 where 퐽푛 • 퐴푛 = is the percentage of jobs accessible from location 푛 퐽푡표푡 • 푝푛 is the population residing in location 푛 • 푁 is the total number of locations in the area of influence
7. The first indicator calculates job accessibility regardless of the number of people living in the origin location. That is, this indicator provides an aggregated, quantitative result of overall job accessibility regardless of where an individual resident lives. The second indicator weighs job accessibility for the population of the origin location. Namely, for two origins from which residents can reach the same number of jobs, the origin with a larger population will have a higher job accessibility weight. This indicator captures accessibility in terms of how the transport system provides services connecting high-density residential areas to job locations. The weight can also be a subset of the total population, for example, low-income populations, female populations, senior populations, etc., to examine the accessibility to specific groups of residents. 8. For this analysis, Transport Analyst was used to generate the job accessibility indicator. Transport Analyst is an open-source, web-based tool developed by the World Bank and Conveyal. It combines estimated travel times and job location data to calculate the accessibility of a city via different travel modes (auto, transit, walking, and biking)
Page 87 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Assumptions and Results Assumptions 9. The scenario settings and assumptions used in this analysis are: (a) Analysis time frame: Workday morning peak hour, 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. (b) Frequency of the BRT: 5 minutes (c) Average speed of the BRT: 20 km/h (d) Public transport network: i. Baseline scenario: Current bus network + Metro Line 1 + current Metropolitano BRT ii. With the project scenario: Baseline Scenario + Metropolitano BRT North Extension
10. The analysis calculated the number of jobs accessible within 60 minutes during morning peak hour by public transport from each census block in Lima. The travel time is calculated as a combination of walking and public transport, with average walking speed set as 5 kilometers per hour, and maximum three transfers. Results Figure 3A.4 Job Accessibility Increase in Lima
Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank.
11. Overview of the job accessibility map. The spatial distribution of the job accessibility increase in Lima from the impact of the project is presented in Figure 3A.4. As can be seen from the map, job accessibility increased significantly along the Metropolitano BRT North Extension corridor compared to other areas of the city. In addition, the project-related job accessibility increase goes beyond the project’s area of influence in the north as the city center also gains notably. This is due to the fact that the proposed project improves connectivity from the city center to jobs in the northern part of Lima.
Page 88 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
12. Overall job accessibility increase. In terms of the increase of overall average job accessibility, the proposed project will benefit the project area with an average of an additional 11,981 jobs that can be accessed within 60 minutes during the morning peak hour. Compared to the current average job accessibility of 156,595 (10.91 percent of the total jobs in Lima), this accounts for a 7.65 percent increase. The overall population-weighted average job accessibility increase is 15,069, which is much higher than the non-weighted average due to the high population density in the project’s area of influence. The detailed results for job accessibility increase in the project’s area of influence are presented in Table . Job accessibility increase results for the whole BRT corridor are presented in Table 3A.2 to evaluate a broader impact of the project. It shows that along the BRT corridor, the overall increase in average number of additional accessible jobs is 7,404, which accounts for a change of 1.45 percent. By comparing the results in the project’s area of influence with the whole BRT corridor, it can be inferred that the project’s area of influence gains a much higher increase in job accessibility than the whole BRT corridor as a result of the project’s impact.
Table 3A.1 Results of Job Accessibility Increase in the Area of Influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension Number of Jobs Accessible With the Improvement from Change in (Percentage of Accessible Jobs as of Baseline Project the Project Percentage Total Jobs in Lima) 156,595 168,576 Average 11,981 7.65% (10.91%) (11.74%) Overall Population Weighted 214,263 229,332 15,069 7.03% Average (14.92%) (15.97%) Low-Income Population Weighted 220,642 236,171 15,529 7.04% Average (15.37%) (16.45%) 215,114 230,194 Female Population Average 15,080 7.01% (14.98%) (16.03%) 213,281 228,344 Male Population Average 15,063 7.06% (14.86%) (15.91%) Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank.
Table 3A.2 Results of Job Accessibility Increase in the Metropolitano BRT Corridor
Number of Jobs Accessible Improvement Change in (Percentage of Accessible Jobs as of Baseline With the Project from the Percentage Total Jobs in Lima) Project Average 509,664 517,068 7,404 1.45% Overall Population Weighted Average 600,646 608,517 7,871 1.31% Low-Income Population Weighted 577,007 584,895 7,887 1.37% Average Female Population Average 605,561 613,404 7,843 1.30% Male Population Average 595,375 603,277 7,901 1.33% Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank.
Page 89 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
13. Low-income population. The baseline for low-income population weighted job accessibility is 220,642 (15.37 percent of the total jobs in Lima), higher than the overall population weighted average accessibility. This is due to the fact that the majority of the population in the project’s area of influence is poor. In other words, the proposed project is benefiting areas with higher poverty rates, as explained before. For the four districts in the project’s area of influence, Comas (NBI of 49.6 percent) and Carabayllo (NBI of 51.7 percent) gain the higher change in percentage for the job accessibility increase—15.16 percent and 13.40 percent, respectively. These two districts have relatively high poverty rates and benefit the most from the reduction in travel time due to the proposed project since they are along the Metropolitano BRT North Extension corridor. Independencia (NBI of 66.7 percent) gains a lower change in the percentage of job accessibility increase since it is already on the current BRT corridor.
Table 3A.3 Average Number of Jobs Accessible Increase Disaggregated by District in the Area of Influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension
Average Number of Jobs Accessible Baseline Improvement from the Project Change in Percentage Los Olivos 296,701 16,040 5.41% Comas 98,871 14,991 15.16% Independencia 367,640 8,862 2.41% Carabayllo 38,424 5,147 13.40% Source: INEI, Censo de población y de vivienda, updated in 2010, processed by the World Bank.
14. Male and female population. There is not much difference in the absolute job accessibility increase between the female population (15,080 additional jobs) and the male population (15,063 additional jobs). This means that the proposed project will provide an almost equal increase in additional accessible jobs for women and men in the project’s area of influence. However, although men have an overall lower baseline for the population weighted job accessibility (213,281) than women (215,114) due to a slightly lower male population density in the project’s area of influence, they gain the same increase in job accessibility as women with the project. This may be due to the fact that more men live close to the Metropolitano BRT North Extension than women. Accessibility for women may be further improved by providing higher coverage and convenient public transport services to connect with the Metropolitano BRT North Extension.
Page 90 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 4: Economic Analysis
Introduction
1. The proposed project is economically viable and expected to improve mobility and accessibility in Lima, especially for the low-income residents located in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension51. The project’s economic costs include total capital costs during the construction phase and operation and maintenance during the operation phase. The project’s quantifiable economic benefits are travel-time savings, savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC), and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and pollution. The proposed project is also expected to yield non-quantified benefits such as reduced accidents and increased accessibility for users with disabilities. The Economic Analysis (EA) follows a cost-benefit approach. In the base scenario, the project is expected to yield a net present value (NPV) of US$75.43 million at a 6 percent discount rate and an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 11.52 percent for a 20-year evaluation horizon. 2. The socioeconomic structure in the project’s area of influence52 is characterized by a large and growing low- income population and poverty rates that are above Lima’s average. Based on per capita income, the majority of inhabitants in the project’s area of influence, about 57 percent, fall into the lower two of five socioeconomic levels.
Table 4A.1 Population by Socioeconomic Level District Social level A+B Social level C Social level D+E Population (1,000) Carabayllo 0.7% 15.1% 84.2% 225 Comas 1.9% 32.1% 66.0% 417 Independencia 1.0% 57.9% 41.0% 167 Los Olivos 25.7% 45.2% 29.1% 269 Project Area of Influence 7.4% 35.8% 56.7% 1,078 Lima Metropolitan Area 27.7% 42.6% 29.7% 10,581 Source: INEI (2018 data for Lima Metropolitan Area and 2013 data for districts). The shares of the socioeconomic levels in the project area of influence are weighted by the total population in the respective districts. The most recent disaggregation was published in 2016 and is based on 2013 data.
3. While the existing Metropolitano BRT has mainly benefitted users from wealthier socioeconomic levels (C level), the Metropolitano BRT North Extension is expected to cater particularly to the mobility needs of the lower-income (D and E level) residents in North Lima. In June 2019, the demographics of users entering the system at the Central Station of the current Metropolitano BRT were roughly representative of the LMA population structure with 31 percent of users belonging to socioeconomic levels D and E, compared to 30 percent of the LMA population belonging to these two socioeconomic levels. The same holds true for Terminal Naranjal with 42 percent low-income users and 41 percent low-income population in Independencia.
51 The INEI distinguishes the socioeconomic levels by per capita income: A (upper class): S/.2,192.20 or more; B (upper middle class): S/.1,330.10 to S/.2,192.19; C (middle class): S/.899.00 to S/.1,330.09; D (lower middle class): S/.575.70 to S/.898.99; E (lower class): S/.575.69 or less (2017 definition). In this analysis, the terms “lower-income population” and “lower socioeconomic levels” are used to refer to the sum of population from socioeconomic levels D and E. 52 In this analysis, the area of influence comprises the districts Carabayllo, Comas, Independencia and Los Olivos.
Page 91 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Figure 4A.1 Socioeconomic Levels of Current Metropolitano BRT Users at Central Station (left) and Terminal Naranjal (right)
41% 34% 26% 27% 18% 15% 16% 8% 8% 2% 4% 1% A B C1 C2 D E A B C1 C2 D E
Source: Protransporte (June 2019)
4. The rationale for public sector provision is justified by the market failures. First, given the positive externalities of public transport projects, private provision would result in a quantitative and qualitative level of service that is lower than the social optimum. Second, these interventions require some degree of monopolistic structures that justifies the efficiencies of costs and participation of the public sector in the provision of BRT infrastructure, the regulation of fares, and the oversight of PPP contracts for BRT transport provision. The current competition between mass transit mode and unregulated traditional modes (buses and combis) is generating undesired effects, such as congestion, pollution, and accidents.
Methodology and Assumptions 5. The analysis follows a standard incremental cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodology in compliance with World Bank Operational Policy (OP) 10.04. The analysis compares likely outcomes with and without the project. The team has carried out an independent review of the demand analysis and cost-benefit analysis, adjusted assumptions and parameters, and standardized them to the extent possible to better meet the World Bank’s best-practice standards53. Data limitations caused the team to apply several conservative adjustments that reduce the estimated benefits compared to the clients’ initial assessment, but keep the results within a credible range of expected benefits. Even at the low end of the range, the proposed project provides strong net benefits.
6. For purpose of updating the assessment of the project’s economic viability, the team has adjusted the client’s analyses as follows: (a) adjustment of growth rates for demand projections; (b) adjustment of the time value of money, reflecting the purpose of the trip; (c) introduction of GHG emissions reduction in the cost-benefit analysis; (d) adjustment of project costs according to World Bank eligibilities; (e) adjustment of the capacity for additional buses, reflecting existing concession contracts; (f) use of a social discount rate of 6 percent, in line with World Bank standards; and (g) other minor adjustments.
53 The World Bank’s analysis is based on the Feasibility Study (National Public Investment System Code SNIP-269505, approved in June 2015).
Page 92 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Demand Model 7. The model followed the standard four-step approach to forecasting the demand for the new investment, including: (a) trip generation, (b) trip distribution, (c) modal choice, and (iv) trip assignment. The modeling process was prepared using TRANSCAD transport software and is based on the Lima and Callao 2012 Transport Master Plan. It includes a total of 661 transit zones, with an emphasis on the project intervention zones, which the team considered reasonable. The deviated effective demand forecasting methodology was conducted as follows: (i) explained socioeconomic variables were predicted at the level of each transit zone; (ii) depending on the models of generation (trips leaving) and attraction (trips arriving) to each transit zone, the growth of each variable was applied to the specifications of the model to obtain future trips; (iii) based on these numbers, generation and attraction vectors of trips were constructed for each year of the proposed time horizon; (iv) with the vector-type growth matrices for each year of the analysis horizon and the full 661x661 matrix of the base year, the future travel matrix was calculated.
8. The team has updated the demand model by introducing more conservative assumptions for demand growth. Potential demand was estimated applying growth rates for schools, jobs, vehicles, and population. To account for the expected changes in demand induced by other transport modes, demand growth for the 2030-34 period was lowered from 2.35 percent to 1.72 percent. This adaption reflects the assumption that Lima Metro Line 3 will start operations in 2030; as the northern part of the axis, through which Line 3 runs, is located in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension, it is expected that demand growth for the Metropolitano BRT will not increase, but instead be maintained.
Table 4A.2 Growth Rates Used for Demand Projections Period Feasibility Study Protransporte World Bank 2020-25 2.08% 2.08% 2025-30 1.72% 1.72% 2030-34 2.35% 1.72% 2034 onwards Not available Source: Protransporte and World Bank
Cost-Benefit Analysis 9. The proposed project will achieve its main objectives through three quantifiable benefits:
(a) Travel time savings: The proposed project will achieve total travel time savings, particularly for public transport users shifting from informal and private transport to BRT, which will also reduce congestion. This impact is measured by estimating travel time differences with and without the project. The World Bank’s analysis reduced the estimated travel time savings by introducing differentiated values of time depending on the purpose of the trip. Based on official statistics, 34 percent of all trips will be work- related (MTC 2019) and thus valued at S/.6.50/hour. Non-work-related trips are valued at S/.1.95/hour for adults and S/.0.98/hour for minors (MEF, 2019). (b) Vehicle operating cost reduction: Reduced VOC result from reduced congestion and reduction in total kilometers traveled. The bus operation costs are estimated based on the distance traveled, the unit costs, and composition of the fleet. (c) Emission reduction: Reduced GHG emissions due to the optimization of the current public transport network and reduced congestion. The estimation of the reduction is based on the kilometers traveled by the different types of vehicles as well as their respective emission factors.
Page 93 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
10. In addition to the expected quantifiable benefits, the proposed project will also generate substantial economic and social positive externalities that are not quantified for the purpose of the cost-benefit analysis:
(a) Reduction in traffic fatalities and injuries: Reduced traffic injuries and fatalities are expected due to lower exposure by taking a safer transport alternative (BRT versus public transport in mixed traffic or private motorized vehicles). The designs include a road safety audit, the recommendations of which are expected to yield safety benefits for all road users beyond BRT passengers. External costs for traffic crashes include social spending on medical care, the opportunity cost to society for disabilities or loss of human lives, and public intervention in crashes. (b) Livability and public trust improvement: Livability and public trust in local governments will improve due to the provision of critically needed public transport infrastructure. (c) Employment generation: Employment will be generated during the construction phase and during operation due to increased accessibility along the corridor. (d) Increased accessibility: Accessibility between residential areas to resources and services, including jobs and schools, will increase. In addition to the provision of the main BRT corridor, the reorganization of the feeder network is expected to motivate populations from lower socioeconomic levels to use the Metropolitano BRT system. In terms of universal accessibility for disadvantaged groups, the new system will particularly cater to the needs of women and people with disabilities.
11. The investment and operating costs have been updated to constant prices (nuevos soles, April 2019) using the price indices of June 2015 and April 2019. Moreover, prices were converted to social prices using the conversion values provided by the MEF. The World Bank’s analysis includes infrastructure investment costs (10.2 kilometers of bidirectional bus lanes, 17 stations, new terminal, public space and other complementary civil works, i.e., improvement of water canal) and excludes costs for land acquisition/expropriation and VAT. Reference operating and maintenance costs for the bus fleet have been added considering current operating costs per kilometer of the bus system.
12. The number of additional buses to be introduced into the system has been set at 60 trunk buses to reflect the existing contracts with the concessionaires54. A new operational plan will ensure that the system will provide the expected benefits without any additional trunk fleet for the first three years of operation through a combination of measures: (a) more efficient route scheduling, programming, and dispatch, considering Protransporte does not use any of the commercially available specialized scheduling packages; (b) the rebalancing of the feeder routes along the 17 new stations, reducing congestion and wait times at Terminal Naranjal; (c) improved vertical efficiency of the service plan, taking advantage of operational U-turns to improve productivity of buses and reduce headways; and (d) the reduction of deadheading mileage to and from the bus depot.
13. Given the capacity, the number of feeder buses will remain at 84 and the additional demand will be served through the reorganization of the feeder network connecting the feeder buses to the northern extension of the BRT corridor. This expected reorganization of the feeder network is also crucial to ensure accessibility for lower-income users. In particular, feeder routes will be shortened and integrated at different stations
54 According to the existing contracts, contractual obligations require the concessionaires to increase the size of the fleet from a current 300 trunk buses to up to 360 trunk buses.
Page 94 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
north of Terminal Naranjal and three additional routes will integrate the northernmost part in the area of influence. The use of the public bus system is encouraged by (a) setting the fare for feeder buses at S/.0.50 per trip to compete with alternative transport, and deducting this amount when users enter the BRT system, reducing the BRT fare from S/.2.50 to S/.2.00; (b) reducing the distance to the BRT corridor through shortened feeder routes; (c) reducing changing times by integrating feeder and trunk buses in several different stations north of Terminal Naranjal; (d) providing safer crossings and access to the BRT corridor according to the new road safety plan.
14. Based on this working hypothesis of no additional feeder buses and 60 additional trunk buses, the demand for the base scenario with this proposed project has been readjusted (decreased by 10 percent). The demand, that can be served when only 60 additional trunk buses are acquired, is equivalent to a 15 percent decrease from this base scenario.
15. Based on the actual use of the system, the World Bank has reduced the days/year from 310 to 304.6.
Table 4A.3 Calculation of Annual Equivalent Days of System Use
Day Number of Days % of System Use Equivalent Days Working days 247 100% 247 Saturdays 52 60% 31.2 Sundays 52 40% 20.8 Public holidays 14 40% 5.6 Total 365 84% 304.6
16. The Social Discount Rate has been adjusted from 8 percent (MEF) to 6 percent (World Bank). The Social Discount Rate is based on three elements: (a) estimated economic growth (g); (b) elasticity of marginal utility (θ); and (c) inter-temporal (rate of time) preference (ρ). The three elements correspond to the components of the Ramsey equation (Ramsey, 1928), as recommended by the World Bank’s latest guidance on the Social Discount Rate (World Bank, 2016). With regard to estimated economic growth, the World Bank’s team has selected 4 percent. Economic growth is included to represent (i) the fact that beneficiaries will be richer in the future; and (ii) the marginal utility of additional dollar decreases. The use of 4 percent is consistent with Peru’s gross domestic product (GDP) performance and forecasts. Between 2002 and 2013, Peru was one of the fastest-growing countries in Latin America, with an average GDP growth rate of 6.1 percent annually. Between 2014 and 2017, GDP growth slowed to an average rate of 3 percent, and is currently forecasted to reach 4 percent for the coming years (International Monetary Fund, 2019). Elasticity of marginal utility represents how much the marginal utility decreases as the beneficiaries become richer, usually considered between one and two. Due to the lack of a better estimate, we are using 1.5. The last element, inter-temporal preference, is usually defined between zero and 0.2. For the purpose of calculating the discount rate of the analysis, the team has selected zero, which reflects equal preference for current and future beneficiaries.
Social Discount Rate = ρ + θ g = 0 + 1.5 x 0.04 = 0.06 ρ: Intertemporal preference = 0 θ: Elasticity of marginal utility = 1.5 g: Growth rate = 0.04
Page 95 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Figure 4A.2 Real GDP Growth in Peru (Annual Percentage Change)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2019). Values from 2019 onwards are forecasts.
Results
17. The proposed project is economically viable. In the base scenario55, the NPV of the project is estimated at US$75.43 million (S/.254 million), with an EIRR of 11.52 percent and a cost-benefit ratio of 1.53. The results indicate that the benefits of the project come mainly from time savings, which account for 55.79 percent of the total benefits, while savings in VOC have the second-highest contribution at 40.58 percent. The project is expected to mainly benefit users from lower socioeconomic classes.
Table 4A.4 Quantified Economic Benefits
Estimated Benefits (6% discount rate) Percentage Amount (Million Nuevos Soles) Travel time savings 55.79% 803 Vehicle operating cost savings 40.58% 584 GHG emissions reduction 3.63% 52 Total benefits 100% 1,440
56 18. The proposed project is expected to save 302,826 metric tons of CO2 (net emissions) between 2024 and 2040. The project’s impact was defined as the difference in emissions between a reference scenario without the project and the base scenario with the project. GHG emissions savings consider the expected modal shift
from omnibus, microbus, and rural van to articulated and trunk buses of the extended BRT system. The CO2 price was updated to US$43 per metric ton in 2024 with an annual growth rate to reach US$60 in 2040, in accordance with World Bank guidance note on this matter (World Bank 2017). This shadow price of carbon is derived from three different measures: (a) social cost of carbon; (b) marginal abatement costs; and (c) carbon market prices. GHG emissions savings are mainly driven by the optimization of the current transport network, increase in road space through dedicated bus lanes, and a reduction in kilometers traveled.
55 Assumptions: Readjusted demand (-10 percent); introduction of additional bus fleet in 2024; time savings of 14 minutes; social discount rate of 6 percent; investment cost of S/.523 million (April 2019 prices). 56 GHG emissions savings were only considered starting in 2024 with the introduction of the additional fleet (and operational cost).
Page 96 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Table 4A.5 GHG Emissions Reduction
Million Metric Tons GHG Emissions Without Project With Project Gross GHG Emission 31.78 31.32 Net GHG Emission 0.303 Net Annual GHG Emissions 0.018
19. Excluding GHG emissions savings from the cost-benefit analysis yields an NPV of US$67.56 million, an EIRR at 11.03 percent, and a cost-benefit ratio of 1.48.
Sensitivity Analysis 20. The results of the EA have been tested for a number of sensitivity scenarios. (a) Decrease in demand (b) Increase in costs (c) Results without additional buses (i.e., 300 trunk buses) (d) Different discount rates
21. Table 4A.6 shows the 16 main scenarios at a social discount rate of 6 percent. Even for the most rigorous combination of a 20 percent increase in investment costs and a simultaneous 20 percent decrease in demand, the proposed project has a positive cost-benefit ratio of 1.28 and an EIRR of 9.06 percent.
Table 4A.6 Summary of Cost-Benefit Analysis Under Different Sensitivity Scenarios
NPV EIRR Cost -Benefit Scenario Demand Cost (Thousand Nuevos % Ratio Soles)
1 Base Base 254,204 11.52% 1.53 2 Base Increase 10% 236,436 10.78% 1.45 3 Base Increase 15% 227,553 10.46% 1.41 4 Base Increase 20% 218,669 10.15% 1.38 5 Decrease 10% Base 224,869 10.97% 1.48 6 Decrease 10% Increase 10% 208,147 10.28% 1.41 7 Decrease 10% Increase 15% 199,786 9.97% 1.37 8 Decrease 10% Increase 20% 191,425 9.69% 1.34 9 Decrease 15% Base 208,911 10.65% 1.45 10 Decrease 15% Increase 10% 192,623 9.99% 1.38 11 Decrease 15% Increase 15% 184,480 9.69% 1.35 12 Decrease 15% Increase 20% 176,336 9.42% 1.32 13 Decrease 20% Base 188,602 10.26% 1.41 14 Decrease 20% Increase 10% 172,315 9.62% 1.34 15 Decrease 20% Increase 15% 164,171 9.33% 1.31 16 Decrease 20% Increase 20% 156,028 9.06% 1.28
Page 97 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
22. In case the additional trunk buses required to meet the projected demand are not introduced, the EIRR (base scenario) would be reduced to 11.39 percent under the assumption of stable travel time savings. If travel time savings are simultaneously reduced by 50 percent due to insufficient provision of additional fleet, the EIRR would be 7.47 percent (base scenario).
23. Table 4A.7 shows the effect of using different discount rates in the NPV.
Table 4A.7 Net Present Value of the Project Using Different Discount Rates Discount Rate 6% (World Bank) 8% (MEF) 10% NPV (million nuevos soles) 254 141 53 Cost-benefit ratio 1.53 1.31 1.12
24. The team carried out a switching value analysis to assess the sensitivity of the evaluation’s results to changes in key variables. Switching values are presented in terms of the percentage needed in the value of the variable to turn the project’s NPV equal to zero. At a discount rate of 8 percent, the switching values are a demand increase of 27.73 percent and a cost increase of 20 percent.
Page 98 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Box 4A.1: Measures to Increase the Share of BRT Users from Lower-Income Levels
1. In order to ensure that the Metropolitano BRT North Extension will benefit the targeted low-income population in the north, the World Bank has conducted additional analysis regarding: (i) the system’s accessibility for users from lower socioeconomic levels, and (ii) the system’s affordability for said users and the demographic’s potential effects on demand. The World Bank finds that (i) the foreseen reorganization of the feeder routes supports accessibility for low-income users, and (ii) the client is advised to design an integrated fare system that is tailored to the willingness of potential users from lower socioeconomic levels to pay and might include options for a differentiated fare system. 2. Accessibility for low-income users. In the current Metropolitano corridor, the socioeconomic characteristics of the users entering the BRT system at Central and Naranjal stations reflect the socioeconomic setup of the population living in the respective areas, as measured by socioeconomic levels. The World Bank has conducted additional analysis to understand if this strong correlation between population and BRT user demographics can be expected to hold for the Metropolitano BRT North Extension. The analysis focused on examining how potential demand of low-income users might be affected by limited accessibility to the system. It found that: • The planned BRT extension, including the reconfigured feeder routes, could benefit 90 percent of the transport demand of low-income users that have previously used other means of transportation. • Sixty-three percent of trips, that (i) originate in the project’s area of influence and (ii) are undertaken by lower-income users, provide access to the BRT corridor within 500 meters of the trip origin. The remaining 37 percent of these trips are either served by the feeder system or allow walking access to the main corridor within 1,000 meters or less. 3. Affordability for low-income users. Although there is a large potential demand from low-income users based on geographic accessibility, observed travel costs of the low-income residents in the area of influence are comparatively lower than the fare of Metropolitano. According to household travel surveys, the fares of up to 68 percent of the newly generated trips meeting the accessibility criteria would cost less than S/.2.50, thus making the Metropolitano more expensive than alternative transport modes for this particular user group. The preliminary assessment, conducted with the purpose of identifying potential issues and formulating recommendations for additional analysis, suggests that despite high accessibility for low-income users, the current fare might limit the targeted population from using the BRT due to affordability issues. 4. Limitations of the analysis and need for complementary studies. The above analysis has been conducted based on latest available large-scale datasets for observed mobility in Lima. However, it is neither representative of the whole area of influence nor is it an accurate reflection of current travel patterns. Collection of primary data from stated preferences surveys from residents of socioeconomic levels D and E in the four districts is needed to inform detailed analysis of accessibility and willingness to pay. 5. To address the potential issues stemming from the socioeconomic demographics in the area of influence, the World Bank suggests the following three measures: (i) close monitoring of the share of trips of passengers in the socioeconomic levels D and E in the extension of the BRT corridor as an indicator; (ii) additional surveys of users’ stated preference and willingness to pay may be used to identify other ways to further increase demand from low-income users; (iii) conducting studies on an integrated fare system (across all transport modes) might include options of different types of subsidies (e.g., geographical subsidies, categorical subsidies, categorical and self-selected cost alleviation, mean-tested subsidies).
Page 99 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 5. Status of Integrating Corporate and Transport Commitments
Commitment Comment on compliance Climate and Disaster Risk Completed. The team is aware of potential flood in the targeted project areas. Screening Climate Co-Benefits: Completed. The proposed project reduces GHG emissions based on improvements in efficiency of the transport system and Mitigation and modal shift from private cars to the BRT. The proposed project activities enhance resilience (good drainage systems to reduce Adaptation flooding risks). Greenhouse Gas Completed. The team has calculated the GHG results and entered the results into the Operational Portal. The team has Emissions Analysis discussed the current GHG calculations with the focal point. (included in Annex 4) Shadow Price of Carbon The team has applied the Shadow Price of Carbon (SPC) analysis in the economic analysis. The team has discussed the SPC in Economic Analysis analysis with the focal point. Road Safety in Urban Completed. Operations Policy and Country Service has assigned the project under Urban Transport and Public Transport Projects Administration/Transport codes. The PAD addresses the three requirements, as follows: (a) the World Bank has carried out the collection of baseline data on traffic fatalities and injuries in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension as this data is not currently available. During project implementation, the World Bank team will organize capacity- building activities for relevant stakeholders to manage road safety data. (b) The World Bank has carried out a road infrastructure safety assessment of the engineering designs to cover safety for all road users (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and vehicle occupants) to identify and mitigate road safety risks during the project’s operation phase. The baseline traffic fatality and injury data will inform the road infrastructure safety assessment about risky locations in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension where special attention is required in the designs. Relevant recommendations of this assessment will be incorporated in the bidding documents in order to implement them during construction. (c) The results framework includes an indicator to measure the project’s road safety activities: “Carriageway- km covered by installing infrastructure and/or equipment designed to reduce speeds.” Accessibility-Informed The World Bank completed an accessibility analysis (Annex 3). The project’s results framework includes an accessibility Urban Transport Projects indicator (accessibility to jobs). Citizen Engagement The citizen engagement approach is proposed to include consultations, grievance redress, beneficiary engagement surveys, and institutional agreements with local municipalities as part of the SEP. The project is proposed to finance surveys to collect, record, and report on feedback from beneficiaries about the consultation processes during preparation and implementation and about the coverage, safety, personal security, and reliability of the BRT. The results framework is proposed to include two indicators: “Citizens reporting satisfaction with key aspects of consultation process” and “Beneficiaries satisfied with the BRT transport services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (coverage, reliability, safety, personal security), differentiated by socioeconomic level and gender.” Gender The proposed project will be aligned with two pillars of the World Bank Gender Strategy by enhancing women’s mobility and access to more and better jobs, while at the same time increasing women’s voice and agency by contributing to enhancing their personal security in public transport. The PAD documents gaps in women’s access to urban transport and gaps in women’s employment as bus drivers. The proposed project has incorporated features in the design of the passenger stations, bridges, and bus terminals that will address women’s needs based on their mobility patterns and personal security. The proposed project will finance development and implementation of a Gender Action Plan (GAP) for Protransporte with concrete actions to address women’s mobility barriers and employment in the Metropolitano BRT. The results framework includes two indicators: “Beneficiaries satisfied with the urban transport services in the area of influence of the Metropolitano BRT North Extension (coverage, reliability, safety, personal security), differentiated by socioeconomic level and gender” (percentage), “Gender Action Plan under implementation.” GBV Risk The team has applied the GBV tool to assess the GBV risk and will integrate this into the project mitigation measures based on the GBV best practice guidance. The team ran the tool and assessed that the project has a low GBV risk. The team has taken action on the two main activities (mapping and training) that are required at appraisal. These actions are: (1) there is available mapping of GBV prevention and response actors in project adjoining communities. It needs to be updated, and the counterpart is already working on it. (2) The team has already trained the TIU and Protransporte on GBV good practice, including providing information on the contractual obligations. In addition, the team is waiting for the results of the complementary social study as this might bring additional risks to consider. Disability-Inclusive Urban Under World Bank budget, an accessibility and complementary study was carried out to recommend several technical Mobility and Rail Projects changes to improve the project in terms of universal accessibility in public spaces oriented to transport. The proposed interventions targeted passengers with reduced mobility, perception difficulties, cognitive limitations, and pregnant or other women with special needs. Based on the recommendations, the proposed project will finance interventions to improve universal accessibility. Corporate Result The team has included the corporate result indicator in the results framework (non-rural roads constructed, kilometers). Indicators
Page 100 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Annex 6. Maps
Map 6A.1 Lima Metropolitan Areas
Source: World Bank, based on ign.gob.pe.
Page 101 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Map 6A.2 Current and Planned Lima Mass Transit Network, 2019
Source: OpenStreetMap and World Bank, 2019.
Page 102 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
Map 6A.3 Metropolitano BRT Extension General Project Map
Source: WBG, 2019, with OpenStreetMaps.
Page 103 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
References
Alata, Patricia. 2018. Encuesta Lima Cómo Vamos 2017. March 21. 13. https://www.limacomovamos.org/responsabilidad-ciudadana/descarga-encuesta-lima-como-vamos- 2017/.
AATE. 2019. Database. April 14.
Conveyal. n.d. Impact Analysis. http://www.conveyal.com/analysis/.
Protransporte. 2015. Feasibility Study.
Galiani, Sebastian, and Laura Jaitman. 2016a. El Transporte Público Desde una Perspectiva de Género. Inter- American Development Bank. 36.
Galiani, Sebastian, and Laura Jaitman. 2016b. El Transporte Público Desde una Perspectiva de Género. Inter- American Development Bank. 8-10.
GIZ. 2018a. Informe de Análisis de Género Respecto a Las Pautas de Movildiad y Acoso Sexual en el Transporte Público. GIZ 23.
GIZ. 2018b. Gender Analysis Report on the Presence of Women in the Transport Sector. NAMA, Support Project. GIZ 18.
Gómez-Lobo, Andrés, and Julio Briones. 2014. “Incentives in Bus Concession Contracts: A Review of Several Experiences in Latin America.”
IMF. 2019. IMF World Economic Outlook. April.
Martinez, Daniel, Oscar A. Mitnik, Edgar Salgado, Lynn Scholl, and Patricia Yañez-Pagans. 2018. “Connecting to Economic Opportunity? The Role of Public Transport in Promoting Women’s Employment in Lima.” Discussion Paper Series IZA DP No. 12020. IZA Institute of Labor Economics. December. http://ftp.iza.org/dp12020.pdf.
MEF (Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas). n.d. https://www.mef.gob.pe/es/metodologias/parametros-de- evaluacion-social.
OpenStreetMap and World Bank, 2019
Ramsey, Frank. 1928. “A Mathematical Theory of Saving.”
Sustainability-MDPI.
See analyses by INRIX, TomTom, and Moovit Transitemos 2019 (Add names of analyses with links and split into three reference points)
Page 104 of 106
The World Bank Lima Metropolitano North Extension (P170595)
World Bank. 2016. Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects.
World Bank. 2017. Shadow Price of Carbon in Economic Analysis. Guidance Note to World Bank Group staff. November 12, 2017.
World Bank. 2019. What Makes Her Move? A Study of Women’s Agency in Mobility in Three LAC Cities.
Page 105 of 106