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Universidad De Chile Facultad De Ciencias Físicas Y Matemáticas Departamento De Ingeniería Matemática

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Universidad De Chile Facultad De Ciencias Físicas Y Matemáticas Departamento De Ingeniería Matemática UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS FÍSICAS Y MATEMÁTICAS DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERÍA MATEMÁTICA LONG-TERM ENERGY PROSPECTIVE FOR SOUTH AMERICA – APPLICATION TO CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTOR EN CIENCIAS DE LA INGENIERÍA, MENCIÓN MODELACIÓN MATEMÁTICA EN COTUTELA CON LA UNIVERSIDAD MINES PARISTECH SÉBASTIEN POSTIC PROFESOR GUÍA : NADIA MAÏZI PROFESOR GUÍA 2 : ALEJANDRO JOFRÉ CÁCERES PROFESOR CO-GUÍA: SANDRINE SELOSSE MIEMBROS DE LA COMISIÓN: SEBASTIEN VELUT BOB VAN DER ZWAAN HÉCTOR RAMÍREZ CABRERA SANTIAGO DE CHILE 2015 RESUMEN DE LA TESIS PARA OPTAR AL TÍTULO DE: Doctor en Ciencias de la Ingeniaría, Mención Modelación Matemática POR: Sébastien Postic FECHA: 11 de diciembre, 2015 PROFESORES GUÍAS: Nadia Maïzi, Alejandro Jofré Long-Term energy prospective for South America – Application to climate negotiations Central and South America and the Caribbean stand out in the global energy landscape for the outstanding contribution of renewable sources to energy production. Maintaining this level of renewable energy in the future might prove a challenging task, as ‘historical’ energy sources (hydropower, biomass) run into sustainability issues and ‘new’ options (wind, solar, geothermal) still depend on public support. However, South America’s small fossil endowment and excellent renewable potential make it the ideal candidate for pioneering a renewable energy transition. The energy sector’s contribution in fueling economic growth in a socially and environmentally sustainable way is also an issue that is particularly significant in the developing context of the continent. Climate change is also a region-scale concern: while the continent’s emissions per capita are above the global average, the region is likely to be one of the most impacted by climate change. South America’s energy sector is vulnerable both on the supply side (hydropower and biomass resources) and the demand side (increased demand for e.g. agriculture and air conditioning). Despite shared regional strengths and concerns, however, South America appears as a highly heterogeneous and fragmented continent: the region’s layout is a stumbling block for regional integration; two centuries of regional wars complicate political cooperation at national level; and the historical evolution has created strong disparities between national energy sectors. Various attempts to cooperate on transnational infrastructure have ended up as costly failures. The aim of this PhD work, half of which was conducted in France and half in Chile, was to develop a mathematical model adapted to the study of long-term energy issues, at a regional scale, for South America. This model, TIMES-América Latina y el Caribe, was applied to studying the impact of national climate policies on regional energy, as the world prepares for a new global climate agreement at the Paris conference in December 2015. This document is divided in five chapters. Chapter 1 offers a historical overview of South America’s history with a focus on energy, followed by a description of the specificities and challenges of South American energy today. Chapter 2 presents the concepts of prospective and scenario modeling, along with a historical overview and a state-of-the-art of energy prospective in South America. Chapter 3 details the model’s main features: its ten-region disaggregation, its modeling rules and the main assumptions for supply and demand. Chapter 4 presents the climate change issue and its implications for South America; it also describes international climate negotiations, from their beginning to the current tentative contributions. Finally, chapter 5 analyses the impacts of these pledges on South America’s energy sector, and the contribution of the latter to fulfilling these pledges, as a direct application of the model developed in this thesis. i América Central, América del Sur y el Caribe destacan en el escenario energético mundial por la contribución espectacular de las fuentes renovables en la matriz energética regional. Mantener tal participación en el futuro es un tremendo desafío, entre los problemas de sostenibilidad vinculados a las energías ‘tradicionales’ (hidroelectricidad, biomasa), y la falta de autonomía financiera, todavía, de las energías no-convencionales (eólica, solar, geotérmica). Sin embargo, la escasa disponibilidad de recursos fósiles en el continente, así como su excelente potencial renovable ponen América latina en una posición privilegiada para liderar una transición mundial hacia una matriz energética más renovable. La contribución del sector energético al desarrollo regional, sin comprometer el medio ambiente o la equidad social, también es un tema de estudio relevante para el futuro energético del continente. El cambio climático, a su vez, es un tema energético regional: Sudamérica emite más gases de efecto invernadero por habitante que el promedio mundial, y los impactos previstos del calentamiento global son más adversos en la región que en muchas otras partes del mundo. El sector energético sudamericano es vulnerable a estos impactos por ambos lados –demanda, y oferta. Pese a estas preocupaciones comunes, la situación de la América del Sur es la de un continente heterogéneo y fragmentado: la configuración física del continente es un obstáculo mayor para las infraestructuras de integración, las tensiones heredadas de la historia reciente no facilitan la cooperación política, y la conformación de los sectores económicos nacionales es muy diferente de un país sudamericano a otro. Muchas tentativas recientes hacia una cooperación infraestructural supra-nacional fracasaron con altos costos. El propósito de este doctorado, desarrollado por la mitad en Francia y la mitad en Chile, fue desarrollar un modelo matemático enfocado en el estudio de las dinámicas energéticas de largo plazo en América latina, con un enfoque regional. El modelo TIMES-América latina y el Caribe se aplicó luego para estudiar el impacto de los compromisos climáticos nacionales en el sistema energético regional, semanas antes de la cumbre mundial del clima en París (COP21). Este documento se divide en cinco capítulos. Capítulo 1 presenta la evolución histórica sudamericana, enfocada en su parte energética; luego, se presentan algunos puntos salientes de los sistemas energéticos sudamericanos de hoy. El capítulo 2 presenta los conceptos de prospectiva energética, así como las experiencias prospectivas pasadas de América del Sur, y un estado del arte de los ejercicios prospectivos y modelos vigentes hoy. El capítulo 3 detalla los elementos principales del modelo: su desagregación en 10 regiones, las reglas de modelación, y las hipótesis principales para la demanda y oferta. El capítulo 4 presenta el tema del cambio climático, así como un estado del arte de las negociaciones internacionales respecto al clima. También se agrega una reseña de las contribuciones nacionales propuestas con vista al acuerdo buscado en COP21. El capítulo 5 analiza el impacto de estos compromisos para el sector energético sudamericano, y el papel de este sector en el cumplimiento de estos compromisos, como una aplicación directa del modelo desarrollado en este trabajo de tesis. ii Contents Contents ....................................................................................................................iii Table of Tables ......................................................................................................... vi Table of Figures ...................................................................................................... vii Table of Boxes .......................................................................................................... ix Acronyms................................................................................................................... x Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 A Document structure ............................................................................................................ 4 B Contributions ...................................................................................................................... 5 Bibliography of the Introduction .............................................................................................. 6 Chapter 1: South American energy – Historical perspective and current challenges 7 A 1500-1825: Rise and fall of colonial empires .................................................................... 9 B 1825-1870: The independence aftermath ......................................................................... 9 C 1870-1930: The golden era ............................................................................................... 10 Energy: early ages .................................................................................................................. 11 D 1930-1980: Shocks and recoveries .................................................................................. 11 Energy: Strategic assets and power struggles ........................................................................ 12 E 1980-2010: Stabilization without cooperation ............................................................... 13 Energy: regional convergence versus national rivalries ........................................................ 14 F Energy in South America: Specificities and challenges ................................................ 16 Sustainability of renewable energy ........................................................................................
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