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Long-Term Energy Prospective Modeling for South America - Application to International Climate Negotiations Sebastien Postic

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Long-Term Energy Prospective Modeling for South America - Application to International Climate Negotiations Sebastien Postic Long-term energy prospective modeling for South America - Application to international climate negotiations Sebastien Postic To cite this version: Sebastien Postic. Long-term energy prospective modeling for South America - Application to inter- national climate negotiations. Environmental Engineering. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2015. English. NNT : 2015ENMP0048. tel-01303955 HAL Id: tel-01303955 https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01303955 Submitted on 18 Apr 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. N°: 2009 ENAM XXXX École doctorale n° 84 : Sciences et technologies de l’information et de la communication Doctorat ParisTech T H È S E pour obtenir le grade de docteur préparée dans le cadre d’une cotutelle entre l’École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris et La Universidad de Chile Spécialité “ Contrôle, Optimisation, Prospective ” présentée et soutenue publiquement par Sébastien POSTIC le 11 décembre 2015 Long -term energy prospective modeling for South America – Application to international climate negotiations Directeur de thèse : Nadia MAÏZI Co-directeur de la thèse : Alejandro JOFRÉ Co-encadrement de la thèse : Sandrine SELOSSE Jury C M. Sébastien VELUT , Professeur, Université Paris 3 Président / Rapporteur M. Bob van der ZWAAN, Professeur, Energy Research Center of the Netherlands / T Faculty of Science, University of Amsterdam Rapporteur T Mme Nadia MAÏZI, Professeur, Directrice de Recherches CMA / MINES ParisTech Examinateur H Mme Sandrine SELOSSE, PhD, Chargée de Recherches CMA / MINES ParisTech Examinateur H M. Alejandro JOFRÉ CÁCERES, Professeur, DIM / Universidad de Chile Examinateur E M. Héctor RAMÍREZ CABRERA, Professeur, DIM / Universidad de Chile Examinateur È MINES ParisTech S S Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées 1 rue Claude Daunesse CS 10 2017, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France E E Remerciements Je voudrais remercier ici, tout d’abord, MM. Sébastien Velut et Bob van der Zwaan, qui ont accepté la lourde tâche de relire ce travail. Merci pour leur temps et leurs remarques, merci tout spécialement à M. Velut pour m’avoir mis en contact avec les équipes de la CEPAL, permettant peut-être que cette thèse trouve un jour un débouché utile ici au Chili. Merci aussi aux membres de mon jury, en particulier MM. Alejandro Jofré et Héctor Ramírez, qui ont eu le douteux privilège de se lever à 4h30 du matin pour assister à ma soutenance. Au-delà de ce geste très apprécié, merci aussi à M. Jofré d’avoir permis que cette thèse se déroule en partie dans les locaux du CMM à Santiago du Chili, condition indispensable à sa bonne réalisation ; et merci pour m’avoir initié aux subtilités mathématiques de la théorie de l’agence ! Côté français, un très grand merci à Nadia Maïzi pour avoir accueilli cette thèse au CMA, et m’avoir accordé une grande confiance et une grande autonomie. Merci pour les coups de pouce, et merci pour m’avoir permis de garder le cap et la confiance dans les moments de creux… J’aurais eu du mal à me convaincre tout seul de l’utilité de ce que je faisais ! Merci Sandrine, pour tout le temps dédié, pour la patience, pour la joie et la bonne humeur, pour ton accompagnement dans les bons et dans les mauvais moments, malgré la distance, la grossesse, la mairie, la Chaire… Il nous reste à nous remettre pour de bon au ukulélé ! Je me sens chanceux d’avoir pu réaliser ces trois ans dans un environnement aussi privilégié. Merci à tous ceux qui ont pu contribuer à cette excellente ambiance, les doctorants, les élèves de Mastère (merci à ma promo du Mastère OSE avec qui on a quand même passé six mois formidables, et à ceux des suivant-e-s que j’ai eu la chance de croiser)… Merci à Marc, qui n’a pas vu la fin de ce travail et avec qui on ne fera jamais cette sortie en bateau, pour sa joie communicative, et pour les bons moments partagés. Merci à Edi pour nos conversations instructives sur la vie, l’univers et le reste ; merci à Valérie, l’irresponsable des doctorants, qui nous a largement appuyés même si elle vole notre goûter ; merci à Seb Folio et Gilles pour le support informatique, à Evariste pour le Mah-jong, à Amel pour la logistique, et surtout merci à Catherine pour tout… On serait perdu si tu n’étais pas là pour faire la maman, et puis aussi on s’ennuierait ! Mais interdiction de taper les thésards, et de courir en talons… Merci, bien sûr, aux occupants successifs du bureau E209, qui ont fait de chaque jour un plaisir de venir au bureau, partager les discussions philosophico-comptoiro-foireuses, les footings et les sorties ultimates ! Merci Steph, François, Paul, Rémy, Vincent, Thomas… Et merci aux occupants de la Maison du Bonheur, et tant pis si les noms se répètent : Steph, Théo, Camille, Raph, Vincent, Matthieu, Valentine, Paul, Victoire, Fiona, Vadim, Daria, Geoffrey, Clémence. C’est vous qui avez fait que je me suis senti chez moi à chaque retour dans le Sud, et que j’y ai été si heureux ! Merci pour les randos, les soirées jeux, les dîners en terrasse ou à la table du salon, les molkky, les tisanes, les repas de coloc et repas d’anniv, les expérimentations culinaires, merci pour le grain de folie qui a régné sur cette maison et tous ces moments inoubliables, de la soirée Game of Thrones au Mud Day maison en passant par le vrai-faux Gélas, la chasse au sanglier, le terrible chien-moquette du jardin, les batailles de Nerf et l’infaisable rando raquettes… Et à bientôt pour d’autres aventures ! Un grand merci, aussi, à tous les gens qui ont peuplé notre aventure chilienne à Camille et à moi : merci bien sûr à Vincent, pour toutes ces heures passées à me traîner sur les sentiers du Cerro Carbón, les empanadas du midi, et surtout toutes nos discussions… Merci à tous les autres partageurs de nos sorties du week-end et de nos belotes de la semaine, Myriam, Julien, Boris, Déodat, Florent et Philomène… Un abrazo grande a Ivan y Nato, gracias por las clases de escalada, y gracias por las salidas del finde, aunque nunca lograré terminar Luna Creciente… La culpa del reemplazante de la profe! Merci à ceux qui sont venus nous rendre visite au bout du monde, aussi : merci aux M&M’s Manon et Mounir pour ces deux semaines de rando et la découverte culinaire de l’année, le queque di pasta, merci Anaïs et Alex même si vous êtes mauvais perdants aux cartes, merci à Clément et Solène d’avoir fait tant de kilomètres pour se faire tremper jusqu’aux os à Pucón, merci à Martin, Robin et Antoine d’être venus royer rouler « quelques » kilomètres avec moi sur la Carretera Austral et visiter ces charmantes haciendas isolées (ach !), merci à Mickaël et Célia d’avoir bravé les voleurs de sac de Calama et les containers de nuggets de Valparaiso juste pour nous… Merci Papa et Maman d’être venus vous aussi passer ces moments privilégiés avec nous entre le Cajón de Maipo et les salars d’Atacama, et merci à André et Gabrielle pour cette virée en Patagonie, et pour l’introduction à l’ornithologie ! Enfin, ou presque, merci aux animateurs de la dernière ligne droite : merci à Sandrine et Nadia, pour vos retours tant sur l’architecture de ce manuscrit, que sur les vices cachés dans ses détails. Merci à Etienne et à Paul, mes prédécesseurs docteurs et relecteurs providentiels, sans qui la qualité de ce manuscrit serait loin de ce qu’elle est ; votre soutien a aussi été psychologiquement précieux ! Merci à Anne-Marie Harper pour la relecture de l’anglais, dans un timing plus que serré. Merci à Vincent, Fiona, Sophie, Sandrine, Nadia, Edi pour avoir supporté mes premières répétitions de soutenance, celles qui ne ressemblaient pas à grand-chose… Et un très gros merci à tous ceux dont l’entourage m’a été si précieux dans ces derniers mois un peu compliqués ; si c’est dans le besoin qu’on reconnaît ses vrais amis, j’ai la chance d’avoir de vrais, bons amis. Qu’ils en soient remerciés. Merci à mes témoins de non-mariage, Kroko, Etienne, Bruno, Clément. Merci pour vos heures d’attention, merci pour écouter mes doutes et mes vacillements, et pas seulement mes blagues et mes projets fous. Sachez que vous ne perdez rien pour attendre, il y aura un mariage, et vous en serez ! Un merci tout particulier à toi Vincent, coloc, collègue, ami précieux, pour l’énergie, la bonne humeur, les pauses café, les jeux de mots, les discussions, pour le temps que tu m’as donné. Et bon courage pour finir ton modèle univers avant le prochain siècle ! Merci au Père Hubert, lui aussi accompagnateur de non-mariage, qui a su nous dédier beaucoup plus de temps que prévu, et d’excellents conseils qui peut-être nous sauveront. Merci, de nouveau, à mes parents, à mes frères, pour leur compréhension, leur écoute, parce qu’ils font la vie belle ; merci avant tout d’être là. Et pour finir, merci Camille. Toi qui m’accompagnes depuis cinq ans maintenant et partages mes joies et mes peines. Mes joies, pendant longtemps, et mes peines de ces derniers temps.
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