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Optimal Production of Chinook Salmon from the Stikine River

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Optimal Production of Chinook Salmon from the Stikine River Fishery Manuscript No. 00-1 Optimal Production of Chinook Salmon from the Stikine River by David R. Bernard Scott A. McPherson Keith A. Pahlke and Peter Etherton July 2000 Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Sport Fish FISHERY MANUSCRIPT NO. 00-1 OPTIMAL PRODUCTION OF CHINOOK SALMON FROM THE STIKINE RIVER by David R. Bernard Division of Sport Fish, Anchorage Scott A. McPherson Keith A. Pahlke Division of Sport Fish, Douglas Peter Etherton Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Whitehorse, Yukon Territory Canada Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Sport Fish 333 Raspberry Road Anchorage, AK 99518-1599 July 2000 This investigation was partially financed by the Federal Aid in Sport Fish Restoration Act (16 U.S.C. 777-777K) The Fishery Manuscript series was established in 1987 for the publication of technically-oriented results of several years' work undertaken on a project to address common objectives, provide an overview of work undertaken through multiple projects to address specific research or management goal(s), or new and/or highly technical methods. Fishery Manuscripts are intended for fishery and other technical professionals. Fishery Manuscripts are available through the Alaska State Library and on the Internet: http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/statewide/divreports/html/intersearch.cfm This publication has undergone editorial and peer review. David R. Bernard a Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Sport Fish, PTS 333 Raspberry Road, Anchorage, AK 99518-1599, USA Scott A. McPherson Keith A. Pahlke Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Sport Fish, Region I P. O. Box 240020, Douglas, AK 99824-0020, USA Peter Etherton Suite 100 – 419 Range Road Whitehorse, YT, Canada Y1A 3V1 aAuthor to whom all correspondence should be addressed: [email protected] This document should be cited as: Bernard, D. R., S. A. McPherson, K. A. Pahlke, and P. Etherton. 2000. Optimal production of chinook salmon from the Stikine River. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Manuscript No. 00-1, Anchorage. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game administers all programs and activities free from discrimination on the bases of race, color, national origin, age, sex, religion, marital status, pregnancy, parenthood, or disability. The department administers all programs and activities in compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, the Age Discrimination Act of 1975, and Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972. If you believe you have been discriminated against in any program, activity, or facility, or if you desire further information please write to ADF&G, P.O. Box 25526, Juneau, AK 99802- 5526; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 4040 N. Fairfield Drive, Suite 300, Arlington, VA 22203 or O.E.O., U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington DC 20240. For information on alternative formats for this and other department publications, please contact the department ADA Coordinator at (voice) 907-465-4120, (TDD) 907-465-3646, or (FAX) 907- 465-2440 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................................................................................... ii LIST OF APPENDICES...................................................................................................................................................... iii AUTHORS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS..................................................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................................. 1 STATISTICS......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Spawning Abundance............................................................................................................................................................ 3 Commercial/Aboriginal Harvests ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Commercial Harvests ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Recreational Harvests ........................................................................................................................................................... 8 Combined Harvests .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Production ........................................................................................................................................................................... 10 ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Measurement Error.............................................................................................................................................................. 10 Parameter Estimates ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Simulation............................................................................................................................................................................ 13 DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................ 16 LITERATURE CITED ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 APPENDIX A ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19 APPENDIX B...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 APPENDIX C...................................................................................................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX D ..................................................................................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIX E...................................................................................................................................................................... 27 i LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Pearson correlation coefficients among counts of large (most >660 mm MEF) chinook salmon in four locations within the Stikine River watershed from 1985 to 1997. .......................................................... 4 2. Indices, counts, estimated abundance Nˆ along with its estimated standard error and estimated 95% confidence intervals for large (most >660 mm MEF) chinook salmon spawning in the Stikine River from 1975 through 1997...................................................................................................................................... 5 3. Equations used to expand counts CW ,t at the weir on the Little Tahltan River into estimates of ˆ abundance N t of large (most >660 mm MEF) chinook salmon spawning in the Stikine River ................. 6 4. Equations used to expand aerial indices C H ,t for the Little Tahltan River into estimates of ˆ abundance N t of large (most > 660 mm MEF) chinook salmon spawning in the Stikine River ............... 6 5. Mean expansion factors and their estimated population variances between aerial indices of large (most > 660 mm MEF) chinook salmon and counts through the weir on the Little Tahltan River ............... 7 ˆ 6. Estimated numbers N a of chinook salmon by age spawning in the Stikine River from 1981 through 1997 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 7. Estimate of combined harvests by year and age of chinook salmon in recreational fisheries near Petersburg and Wrangell, in the terminal marine gillnet fisheries in U. S. District 108, and in commercial and aboriginal gillnet fisheries in Canada ..................................................................................... 9 ˆ ˆ 8. Estimated production Ry by year class and the estimated abundance of their parents N y age 1.3 and older for the population of chinook salmon spawning in the Stikine River ..........................................
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