Comprehensive Analysis of Strategic Force Generation Challenges in the Australian Army

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Comprehensive Analysis of Strategic Force Generation Challenges in the Australian Army Comprehensive Analysis of Strategic Force Generation Challenges in the Australian Army Dwayne M. Butler, Angelena Bohman Lisa Pelled Colabella, Julia A. Thompson AUSTRALIA Michael Shurkin, Stephan B. Seabrook Rebecca Jensen, Christina Bartol Burnett For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2382 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0043-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Australian Army M777 howitzer crew (Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Defence). Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Australian Army Headquarters has tasked RAND Australia to investigate the strategic- level challenges associated with Force Generation (FORGEN) in the wake of its adopting a cyclical 36- month FORGEN pro cess to support its newly organised and modernised formations. To accomplish this objective, RAND compiled information about the status of the Australian Army along with relevant lessons identified from the reorganisation, modernisation, and strategic FORGEN challenges of other militaries. Ultimately, this effort aims to help the Australian Army develop best practices for overcoming challenges in generating forces in light of its current and emergent missions and resourcing levels. This report begins by discussing enterprise initiatives that armies undertake— and how FORGEN relates to such initiatives. A review of enterprise initiatives and chal- lenges in the U.S., French, and Canadian armies provides a foundation for identifying and prioritising FORGEN challenges faced by the Australian Army. We draw on defence frameworks to analyse and organise Australian Army FORGEN challenges— and also draw upon recent research, conducted by the Land Analytical Decision Support sec- tion of the Australian Defence Science & Technology Group (DSTG), that examined tactical- level challenges associated with the capability and capacity of the Army’s enabler forces. The pres ent study incorporates relevant DSTG findings into higher- level stra- tegic challenges. This report primarily addresses the Active Component (AC) and how it relates to FORGEN requirements at the strategic level. Although the re is some discussion of the Reserve Component (RC) and of how Government, civilians, and contractors might be used as means of addressing challenges, the RC, civilians, and contractors are not the focus of this study and warrant additional attention in future research. Also, this study did not address the special operations community; this, too, is a potential area for further investigation. This report is likely to be of interest to Australian Government officials overseeing defence policy. Mitigating FORGEN challenges is an impor tant policy discussion because these challenges can lead to operational risk and the inefficient allocation of resources. Levers such as policy and doctrine changes, resource allocation decisions, and informed leadership decisionmaking can serve to address these challenges. This iii iv Comprehensive Analysis of Strategic Force Generation Challenges in the Australian Army study will offer recommendations to inform policy and guidance, while also helping to shape resource allocation decisions. This research was conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analy sis on defence and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defence, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foun- dations and other nongovernmental organisations that support defence and national security analy sis. Questions about RAND’s work for Australia should be directed to RAND Australia Director, Carl Rhodes, at [email protected]. For specific questions about this work, contact Dwayne Butler at [email protected] or Lisa Pelled Colabella at [email protected]. For more information on the RAND Acquisition and Technology Center, see www .rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/atp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................... iii Figures ...............................................................................................................................vii Tables ..................................................................................................................................ix Summary ............................................................................................................................xi Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................................................1 Plan Beersheba ......................................................................................................................3 Combat versus Enabler Forces ...............................................................................................4 Proj ect Overview ...................................................................................................................5 Analytic Approach ................................................................................................................8 Scope of the Study ................................................................................................................8 CHAPTER TWO Enterprise- Level Management Challenges and Risks Relevant to Force Generation and Modernisation ..................................................................................11 Enterprise- Level Initiatives ..................................................................................................12 Force Generation .................................................................................................................20 Modernisation .....................................................................................................................49 Summary of Key Observations............................................................................................57 CHAPTER THREE Identifying and Discussing Concerns in the Australian Army.......................................61 Interviews and Analytical Methodology ..............................................................................61 Analytic Framework ............................................................................................................63 Data Analy sis ......................................................................................................................65 National Security– Level Risks ............................................................................................68 Enterprise- Level Risks .........................................................................................................80 Operational- Level Risks ......................................................................................................94 v vi Comprehensive Analysis of Strategic Force Generation Challenges in the Australian Army CHAPTER FOUR Summary of Recommendations and Conclusions ......................................................... 117 Summary of Recommendations ........................................................................................ 118 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................125 APPENDIXES A. Background on the Australian Defence Organisation and Australian Army .......................................................................................................127 B. Description of U.S. Army Total Army Analy sis Pro cess ...........................................129 Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................131 References ........................................................................................................................133 Figures S.1. Recommendation Theme Framework .............................................................xviii S.2. Conceptualisation: From Vision to Action ......................................................xviii S.3. Urgency vs. Complexity
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