Extinction. Framing the End of the Species
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Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity Abstract 1. Introduction
Estimating remaining lifetime of humanity Yigal Gurevich [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%. 1. Introduction Modern humans, Homo sapiens, exist according to available data for at least 130,000 years [4], [5]. It is interesting, however, to estimate the time remaining for the survival of humanity. To determine this value there was proposed the so-called doomsday argument [1] - probabilistic reasoning that predicts the future of the human species, given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. This method was first proposed by Brandon Carter in 1983 [2]. Nick Bostrom modified the method by formulating the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA): each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class. [3]. In this paper, we apply the SSSA method to the reference class consisting of all members of our species, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the parameter estimation theory and the available paleodemographic data. 1 To estimate the remaining time t we will fulfill the assumption that the observer has an equal chance to be anyone at any time. -
Anthropic Measure of Hominid (And Other) Terrestrials. Brandon Carter Luth, Observatoire De Paris-Meudon
Anthropic measure of hominid (and other) terrestrials. Brandon Carter LuTh, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon. Provisional draft, April 2011. Abstract. According to the (weak) anthropic principle, the a priori proba- bility per unit time of finding oneself to be a member of a particular popu- lation is proportional to the number of individuals in that population, mul- tiplied by an anthropic quotient that is normalised to unity in the ordinary (average adult) human case. This quotient might exceed unity for conceiv- able superhuman extraterrestrials, but it should presumably be smaller for our terrestrial anthropoid relations, such as chimpanzees now and our pre- Neanderthal ancestors in the past. The (ethically relevant) question of how much smaller can be addressed by invoking the anthropic finitude argument, using Bayesian reasonning, whereby it is implausible a posteriori that the total anthropic measure should greatly exceed the measure of the privileged subset to which we happen to belong, as members of a global civilisation that has (recently) entered a climactic phase with a timescale of demographic expansion and technical development short compared with a breeding gen- eration. As well as “economist’s dream” scenarios with continual growth, this finitude argument also excludes “ecologist’s dream” scenarios with long term stabilisation at some permanently sustainable level, but it it does not imply the inevitability of a sudden “doomsday” cut-off. A less catastrophic likelihood is for the population to decline gradually, after passing smoothly through a peak value that is accounted for here as roughly the information content ≈ 1010 of our genome. The finitude requirement limits not just the future but also the past, of which the most recent phase – characterised by memetic rather than genetic evolution – obeyed the Foerster law of hyperbolic population growth. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
THE SIXTH EXTINCTION: an UNNATURAL HISTORY Copyright © 2014 by Elizabeth Kolbert
The author and publisher have provided this e-book to you for your personal use only. You may not make this e-book publicly available in any way. Copyright infringement is against the law. If you believe the copy of this e-book you are reading infringes on the author’s copyright, please notify the publisher at: us.macmillanusa.com/piracy. THE SIXTH EXTINCTION: AN UNNATURAL HISTORY Copyright © 2014 by Elizabeth Kolbert. All rights reserved. For information, address Henry Holt and Co., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010. www.henryholt.com Jacket photograph from the National Museum of Natural History, courtesy of the Smithsonian Institution e-ISBN 978-0-8050-9979-9 First Edition: February 2014 If there is danger in the human trajectory, it is not so much in the survival of our own species as in the fulfillment of the ultimate irony of organic evolution: that in the instant of achieving self- understanding through the mind of man, life has doomed its most beautiful creations. —E. O. WILSON Centuries of centuries and only in the present do things happen. —JORGE LUIS BORGES CONTENTS Title Page Copyright Notice Copyright Epigraph Author’s Note Prologue I: The Sixth Extinction II: The Mastodon’s Molars III: The Original Penguin IV: The Luck of the Ammonites V: Welcome to the Anthropocene VI: The Sea Around Us VII: Dropping Acid VIII: The Forest and the Trees IX: Islands on Dry Land X: The New Pangaea XI: The Rhino Gets an Ultrasound XII: The Madness Gene XIII: The Thing with Feathers Acknowledgments Notes Selected Bibliography Photo/Illustration Credits Index About the Author Also by Elizabeth Kolbert AUTHOR’S NOTE Though the discourse of science is metric, most Americans think in terms of miles, acres, and degrees Fahrenheit. -
Phillip STILLMAN, the Narrative of Human Extinction and the Logic Of
Phillip Stillman Two Nineteenth- Century Contributions to Climate Change Discourse: The Narra- W e a tive of Hu- t h e r man Extinction S c a and the p e g o Logic of Eco- a t 8 sys- tem Management 92 The Narrative of Human Extinction ... Consider the following passage from Oscar Wilde’s “Decay of Lying” (1891): Where, if not from the Impressionists, do we get those wonderful brown fogs that come creeping down our streets, blurring the gas-lamps and changing the houses into monstrous shadows? [...] The extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art. [...] For what is Nature? Nature is no great mother who has borne us. She is our creation. It is in our brain that she quickens to life. Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.1 The speaker is Vivian, a self-consciously sophistical aesthete, and his argument is that “Nature” is the causal consequence of “Art.” Not long ago, a literary critic might have quoted such a passage with unmitigated approbation: “Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.” The post-structural resonance of that kind of claim is strong, and the Jamesonian tradition of treating art as a means through which ideology reproduces itself depends heavily on the conviction that between the knower and the known, there must be some determining symbolic mediation.2 Now, however, it is difficult not to hesitate over the assertion that the “extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art.” Now we tend to take referential 1 Oscar Wilde, “The Decay of Lying,” in The claims about “Nature” very seriously, especially with regard to Artist as Critic: Critical Writings of Oscar Wilde, ed. -
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work Title Geopolitics, History, and International Relations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z457nf Author Robinson, William I. Publication Date 2009 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE ASSOCIATION • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations VOLUME 1(2) • 2009 ADDLETON ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 1(2) 2009 An international peer-reviewed academic journal Copyright © 2009 by the Contemporary Science Association, New York Geopolitics, History, and International Relations seeks to explore the theoretical implications of contemporary geopolitics with particular reference to territorial problems and issues of state sovereignty, and publishes papers on contemporary world politics and the global political economy from a variety of methodologies and approaches. Interdisciplinary and wide-ranging in scope, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations also provides a forum for discussion on the latest developments in the theory of international relations and aims to promote an understanding of the breadth, depth and policy relevance of international history. Its purpose is to stimulate and disseminate theory-aware research and scholarship in international relations throughout the international academic community. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations offers important original contributions by outstanding scholars and has the potential to become one of the leading journals in the field, embracing all aspects of the history of relations between states and societies. Journal ranking: A on a seven-point scale (A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D). Geopolitics, History, and International Relations is published twice a year by Addleton Academic Publishers, 30-18 50th Street, Woodside, New York, 11377. -
Vegetation and the Initial Human Setflement Of
(993l. of BiogeographY 20'39H12 lourrtal 2 Gd" ilty {iammals, vegetation and the initial human setflement of palaeoecological tne Mediterranean islands: a approach 'rofion: l Afric¿, S c s Ü I a Institut Ur- und F rühgeschich¡e, Albert-Ludn'igs- Universit¿it, D7800 F re i. llins. \\ rl r, r. M für iburg Br., Gennant' ' ¡on. II1. J, shop qt .ur A, ¿l carbon of the lack of carnivores. the genetically fixed behaviour bon patterns for flight and attack are lost in island endemics. +7. u.s. During the Middle (Corso-Sardinia) and Upper Pleistocene, suspected or established (Sardinia, Cyprus, A Sicily) invasions of Homo sp. led to the near-complete ry extinction of the unwary endemic fauna. Some islands \rc$. as are the reasons for the extinction of the (Sicily, Corso-Sardinia) were repopulated by swimming t)uatcrìaü fauna. Small arboricole mammals may have ungulates which were exterminated by later human inva- n,,checi the islands on vegetation-rafts. Some larger mam- sions. For lack of game, a permanent human settlement mirls, like Myotragus on the Balearic Islands, Prolagus on was nearly impossible before the Neolithic. All extant wild Srrdinia, and possibly endemic deer on the Aegean islands, ungulates on the Mediterranean islands are feral domestic irruld be relics of the desiccation of the Mediterranean on animals, or continental game with intact behavioural pat- rhc Mio/Pliocene border. Hippos, elephants and giant deer terns introduced for religious or hunting purposes during alched the islands by swimming. At the a¡rival of new the Neolithic or later. None of them has Pleistocene ances- rpcies, older endemic species became extinct by ecologi- tors on the islands. -
The End of the World: the Science and Ethics of Human Extinction John Leslie
THE END OF THE WORLD ‘If you want to know what the philosophy professors have got to say, John Leslie’s The End of the World is the book to buy. His willingness to grasp the nettles makes me admire philosophers for tackling the big questions.’ THE OBSERVER ‘Leslie’s message is bleak but his touch is light. Wit, after all, is preferable to the desperation which, in the circumstances, seems the only other response.’ THE TIMES ‘John Leslie is one of a very small group of philosophers thoroughly conversant with the latest ideas in physics and cosmology. Moreover, Leslie is able to write about these ideas with wit, clarity and penetrating insight. He has established himself as a thinker who is unafraid to tackle the great issues of existence, and able to sift discerningly through the competing— and frequently bizarre—concepts emanating from fundamental research in the physical sciences. Leslie is undoubtedly the world’s expert on Brandon Carter’s so-called Doomsday Argument—a philosophical poser that is startling yet informative, seemingly outrageous yet intriguing, and ultimately both disturbing and illuminating. With his distinctive and highly readable style, combined with a bold and punchy treatment, Leslie offers a fascinating glimpse of the power of human reasoning to deduce our place in the universe.’ PAUL DAVIES, PROFESSOR OF NATURAL PHILOSOPHY, UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE, AUTHOR OF THE LAST THREE MINUTES ‘This book is vintage John Leslie: it presents a bold and provocative thesis supported by a battery of arguments and references to the most recent advances in science. Leslie is one of the most original and interesting thinkers today. -
The Apocalypse Archive: American Literature and the Nuclear
THE APOCALYPSE ARCHIVE: AMERICAN LITERATURE AND THE NUCLEAR BOMB by Bradley J. Fest B. A. in English and Creative Writing, University of Arizona, Tucson, 2004 M. F. A. in Creative Writing, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, 2007 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2013 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Bradley J. Fest It was defended on 17 April 2013 and approved by Jonathan Arac, PhD, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of English Adam Lowenstein, PhD, Associate Professor of English and Film Studies Philip E. Smith, PhD, Associate Professor of English Terry Smith, PhD, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of Contemporary Art History and Theory Dissertation Director: Jonathan Arac, PhD, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of English ii Copyright © Bradley J. Fest 2013 iii THE APOCALYPSE ARCHIVE: AMERICAN LITERATURE AND THE NUCLEAR BOMB Bradley J. Fest, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2013 This dissertation looks at global nuclear war as a trope that can be traced throughout twentieth century American literature. I argue that despite the non-event of nuclear exchange during the Cold War, the nuclear referent continues to shape American literary expression. Since the early 1990s the nuclear referent has dispersed into a multiplicity of disaster scenarios, producing a “second nuclear age.” If the atomic bomb once introduced the hypothesis “of a total and remainderless destruction of the archive,” today literature’s staged anticipation of catastrophe has become inseparable from the realities of global risk. -
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS SURVEY (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 Published by Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17‐20 July, 2008) an informal survey was circulated among participants, asking them to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. This report summarizes the main results. The median extinction risk estimates were: Risk At least 1 million At least 1 billion Human extinction dead dead Number killed by 25% 10% 5% molecular nanotech weapons. Total killed by 10% 5% 5% superintelligent AI. Total killed in all 98% 30% 4% wars (including civil wars). Number killed in 30% 10% 2% the single biggest engineered pandemic. Total killed in all 30% 10% 1% nuclear wars. Number killed in 5% 1% 0.5% the single biggest nanotech accident. Number killed in 60% 5% 0.05% the single biggest natural pandemic. Total killed in all 15% 1% 0.03% acts of nuclear terrorism. Overall risk of n/a n/a 19% extinction prior to 2100 These results should be taken with a grain of salt. Non‐responses have been omitted, although some might represent a statement of zero probability rather than no opinion. 1 There are likely to be many cognitive biases that affect the result, such as unpacking bias and the availability heuristic‒‐well as old‐fashioned optimism and pessimism. In appendix A the results are plotted with individual response distributions visible. Other Risks The list of risks was not intended to be inclusive of all the biggest risks. -
An Improbable View of Tertiary Dinosaurs. Evolutionary Theory 9, 1990
309 AN IMPROBABLE VIEW OF TERTIARY DINOSAURS Gregory S. Paul 3109 N. Calvert St. Side Apt. Baltimore MD 21218 U.S.A. Received 26 March 1990 The New Dinosaurs - An Alternative Evolution, byD. Dixon. 1988. Salem House Publishers: Topsfield, 1988, 120 pp. T6 many of us the fact that dinosaurs are no.longer around is a supreme frustration - we would give anything to see them. I have come across a few dinosaurologists who prefer dinosaurs as a case of detective work rather than field ~ork~ ~o them I say "tisk-tisk". Others note that had dinosaurs not gone extinct'w~ would not be around to see them anyway, and to them I say "details, details"! D. Dixon is one of the discontented, and in The New Dinosaurs - An Alternative Evolution he explores how dinosaurs migl1thave evolved if they, and some other Mesozoic creatures, not bought the farm circa 65 Myr ago. This book is patterned after his look at what may befall Earth's future fauna in After Man - ! Zoology £i the Future. In his forward for the new volume D. Morris says that Dixon's modern dino- saurs left him "rarely disappointed". I am afraid that I was disap- pointed more often. Indeed, I found The New Dinosaurs to be persistently frustrating, to an extent beyond whatI can detail· in this review. Dixon claims t6at his dinosaurian extrapolaiions are based on evolutionary princi- ples, yet he came up with a menagerie of creatures that have little to do with the real dinosaurs of the Mesozoic, and are often wholly implausible. -
L'argument De La Simulation Et Le Problème De La Classe De Référence
The Simulation Argument and the Reference Class Problem : a Dialectical Contextualism Analysis Paul FRANCESCHI [email protected] www.paulfranceschi.com English postprint of a paper initially published in French in Philosophiques, 2016, 43-2, pp. 371-389, under the title L’argument de la Simulation et le problème de la classe de référence : le point de vue du contextualisme dialectique ABSTRACT. I present in this paper an analysis of the Simulation Argument from a dialectical contextualist’s standpoint. This analysis is grounded on the reference class problem. I begin with describing in detail Bostrom’s Simulation Argument. I identify then the reference class within the Simulation Argument. I also point out a reference class problem, by applying the argument successively to three different reference classes: aware- simulations, imperfect simulations and immersion-simulations. Finally, I point out that there are three levels of conclusion within the Simulation Argument, depending on the chosen reference class, that yield each final conclusions of a fundamentally different nature. 1. The Simulation Argument I shall propose in what follows an analysis of the Simulation Argument, recently described by Nick Bostrom (2003). I will first describe in detail the Simulation Argument (SA for short), focusing in particular on the resulting counter-intuitive consequence. I will then show how such a consequence can be avoided, based on the analysis of the reference class underlying SA, without having to give up one’s pre-theoretical intuitions. The general idea behind SA can be stated as follows. It is very likely that post-human civilizations will possess a computing power that will be completely out of proportion with that of ours today.