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To Download the Fragile States Index Annual Report 2020 in PDF Format FRAGILE STATES INDEX ANNUAL REPORT 2020 For over 60 years, The Fund for Peace (FFP) has been a world leader in developing practical tools and approaches for reducing conflict. With a clear focus on the nexus of human security and economic development, FFP contributes to more peaceful and prosperous societies by engineering smarter methodologies and smarter partnerships. FFP empowers policy-makers, practitioners, and populations with context-specific, data-driven applications to diagnose risks and vulnerabilities and to develop solutions through collective dialogue. FFP is an independent tax-exempt non-governmental organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. with offices in Abuja, Nigeria and Tunis, Tunisia. FFP boasts six decades of programmatic experience in over 40 countries, focused on conflict early warning, peacebuilding, and sustainable development. Copyright © 2020 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. Cover images: Galyna Andrushko via 123RF Contents Page Image: Stock via 123RF Report designed and edited by J.J. Messner. Assessment directed by Charles Fiertz. The Fragile States Index Team: J.J. Messner Charles Fiertz Nate Haken Patricia Taft Marcel Maglo Wendy Wilson Sarah Cockey Fiona Grathwohl Rachel Holzer Keenan Iuliano The Fund for Peace 1101 14th Street NW, Suite 1020 Washington, D.C. 20005 T: +1 202 223 7940 www.fundforpeace.org www.fragilestatesindex.org2 CONTENTS Fragile States Index 2020 2020 Map … … … … 4 2020 Total Scores and Rankings… … … 6 2020 Scores A-Z by Indicator … … 48 Analysis Overview: There is No COVID-19 Here … … 9 Democracies Under Pressure … … … 13 Chile — A Pot Boiling Over: Most Worsened in 2020 … 15 United Kingdom — Exit from Brexit … … 17 Burkina Faso — Regional Instability Drives Worsening… 19 Colombia — Hope Fades as Peace Deal Unravels … 21 Mozambique — What Else Could Go Wrong? … 23 India — Division on the Rise … … … 25 Libya — Path Continues as Decade’s Most Worsened… 27 Lebanon — From One Crisis to the Next … … 29 Uzbekistan — The Quiet Achiever … … 31 Sudan — Women Bring Glimmer of Hope … … 33 Cote d’Ivoire — Fifteen Years On, Back from the Brink 35 Iraq — Improving Trajectory … … … 37 Methodology Overview of FSI Methodology … … … 39 Understanding the Fragile States Index … … 41 Indicators … … … … … 42 3 Greenland United States Iceland Norway of America F Canada DK United Kingdom NL Ireland BE Poland CZ LX SK CH AT HU France SI HV BA RS ME M Portugal Spain United States of America AL TN Malta Algeria Libya Western Mexico Bahamas Sahara Cuba Haiti Dominican Republic Mauritania Puerto Rico Belize Mali Jamaica Antigua & Barbuda Niger Honduras Cape Verde Guatemala Chad The Gambia El Salvador Nicaragua Barbados Grenada Guinea-Bissau BF Trinidad & Tobago Guinea Costa Rica Nigeria Guyana Sierra Leone Panama Venezuela Suriname Ghana Ghana C.A. French Guiana Liberia Benin Colombia Togo GQ Sao Tome & Principe CG Ecuador Gabon De Repu COUNTRY ABBREVIATIONS Brazil AE U.A.E. DJ Djibouti LV Latvia Peru Angola AL Albania DK Denmark LX Luxembourg AM Armenia EE Estonia MD Moldova Bolivia AT Austria ER Eritrea ME Montenegro Namibia AZ Azerbaijan GE Georgia MK North Macedonia B BA Bosnia & Herz. GQ Eq. Guinea MW Malawi BD Bangladesh GR Greece NL Netherlands S Chile A BE Belgium HU Hungary QA Qatar BF Burkina Faso HV Croatia RS Serbia Argentina Uruguay BG Bulgaria IL Israel RW Rwanda BH Bahrain JO Jordan SG Singapore BI Burundi KG Kyrgyz Republic SI Slovenia BT Bhutan KH Cambodia SK Slovakia CG Congo (Rep.) KW Kuwait TJ Tajikistan CH Switzerland LA Laos TN Tunisia CY Cyprus LB Lebanon UG Uganda CZ Czechia LI Lithuania THE WORLD IN 2020 SUSTAINABLE 10 20 30 Finland EE Russia STABLE 40 LV LI Belarus 50 Ukraine 60 MD Kazakhstan Mongolia S WARNING BG 70 MK GE KG North AZ GR AM Korea Turkey TJ 80 Japan Syria CY China LB Iraq South 90 IL Iran Korea JO KW Pakistan ALERT 100 BH BT Myanmar Myanmar Egypt Saudi QA 110 Arabia AE Taiwan India BD LA 120 ER Sudan Yemen DJ KH Vietnam Philippines Ethiopia South Sri Lanka .R. Sudan Brunei Micronesia Maldives Malaysia UG Kenya SG RW emocratic Papua New Guinea ublic of the BI Congo Seychelles Tanzania Solomon Islands Indonesia Timor-Leste Comoros MW Samoa Zambia Vanuatu Fiji Zimbabwe Tonga Mauritius French Botswana Australia Polynesia Eswatini South Lesotho Africa New Zealand VERY SUSTAINABLE MORE STABLE WARNING 14.6 Finland (178) 40.2 Costa Rica (147) 60.0 Jamaica (116) 16.2 Norway (177) 40.4 Spain (146) 60.1 Suriname (115) 17.1 Switzerland (176) 41.0 Poland (145) 60.8 Belize (114) 17.2 Denmark (175) 42.3 Latvia (144) 62.1 North Macedonia (113) 17.8 Iceland (174) 42.4 Italy (143) 63.3 Samoa (112) 17.9 New Zealand (173) 42.5 Chile (142) 63.9 Vietnam (111) 18.2 Sweden (172) 43.7 Qatar (141) 63.9 Bahrain (110) 18.7 Canada (171) 46.0 Panama (140) 64.2 Ghana (=108) 18.8 Luxembourg (170) 46.1 Argentina (139) 64.2 Armenia (=108) 19.7 Australia (169) = 46.1 Croatia (138) 64.4 Dominican Republic (107) 19.9 Ireland (168) 46.4 Barbados (137) 64.8 Cape Verde (106) SUSTAINABLE 46.7 Romania (136) 65.1 Namibia (105) 22.9 Netherlands (167) 47.6 Hungary (135) 65.2 Paraguay (104) 23.2 Germany (166) 48.0 Oman (134) 65.8 Belarus (103) 23.5 Portugal (165) 49.2 Bulgaria (133) 66.0 Guyana (=101) 24.1 Austria (164) 49.9 Bahamas (132) 66.0 Moldova (=101) 25.8 Slovenia (163) MORE STABLE 66.1 Serbia (100) 26.3 Singapore (162) 50.9 Kuwait (131) 66.2 Maldives (99) 27.1 Belgium (161) 51.9 Mongolia (=129) 67.2 Mexico (98) VERY STABLE 51.9 Trinidad & Tobago (=129) 67.6 Peru (97) 30.5 France (160) 52.1 Antigua & Barbuda (=127) 67.8 Indonesia (96) 32.0 South Korea (159) 52.1 Greece (=127) 68.1 Tunisia (95) 32.3 Japan (158) 54.7 Seychelles (126) 68.8 Saudi Arabia (94) 33.4 Uruguay (157) 55.2 Grenada (125) 68.9 El Salvador (93) 33.6 Malta (156) 55.5 Montenegro (124) 69.0 Ukraine (92) 35.7 Czechia (155) 56.1 Cyprus (123) 69.1 Gabon (=90) 36.5 Lithuania (154) 56.6 Brunei Darussalam (122) 69.1 Turkmenistan (=90) 37.2 Mauritius (153) 57.1 Botswana (121) 69.4 Ecuador (89) 38.1 United Arab Emirates (152) 57.6 Malaysia (120) 69.5 Bhutan (88) 38.2 Slovak Republic (151) 58.8 Albania (119) 69.9 China (=86) 38.3 United Kingdom (=149) 59.2 Cuba (118) 69.9 Fiji (=86) 38.3 United States (=149) 59.8 Kazakhstan (117) 38.5 Estonia (148) 2020 SCORES ELEVATED WARNING HIGH WARNING ALERT 70.1 South Africa (85) 80.3 Cambodia (55) 90.0 Liberia (31) 70.2 Bosnia & Herzegovina (84) 81.0 Philippines (54) 90.2 North Korea (30) 70.3 Sao Tome & Principe. (83) 81.2 Comoros (53) 90.3 Kenya (29) 70.8 Thailand (82) 81.8 Sri Lanka (52) 91.2 Venezuela (28) 71.2 Georgia (=79) 82.2 The Gambia (51) 91.7 Mozambique (27) 71.2 Micronesia (=79) 82.3 Papua New Guinea (50) 92.1 Congo (Republic) (=25) 71.2 Morocco (=79) 82.6 Nepal (49) 92.1 Pakistan (=25) 71.3 Azerbaijan (78) 82.7 Timor-Leste (=47) 92.8 Uganda (24) 72.5 Benin (77) 82.7 Djibouti (=47) 92.9 Guinea Bissau (23) 72.6 Russia (76) 83.0 Equatorial Guinea (=45) 94.0 Myanmar (22) 73.0 Brazil (75) 83.0 Eswatini (=45) 94.6 Ethiopia (21) 73.1 Uzbekistan (74) 83.4 Iran (44) 95.2 Libya (20) 73.9 Kyrgyz Republic (73) 84.0 Malawi (43) 95.3 Niger (19) 74.6 Algeria (=71) 84.4 Sierra Leone (42) 95.8 Eritrea (18) 74.6 Senegal (=71) 84.5 Zambia (41) 95.9 Iraq (17) 75.0 Bolivia (70) 84.7 Lebanon (40) 96.0 Mali (16) 75.1 Israel / West Bank (69) 85.7 Bangladesh (39) 97.2 Guinea (15) 75.3 India (68) 85.8 Togo (38) 97.3 Nigeria (14) 75.4 Jordan (67) 85.9 Burkina Faso (37) 97.7 Haiti (13) 75.5 Tajikistan (66) 86.0 Egypt (=35) 97.9 Burundi (12) 76.6 Colombia (65) 86.0 Rwanda (=35) 97.9 Cameroon (11) 76.8 Honduras (64) 87.3 Angola (34) 99.2 Zimbabwe (10) 76.9 Laos (63) 88.7 Mauritania (33) HIGH ALERT 77.1 Nicaragua (62) 89.7 Côte d’Ivoire (32) 102.9 Afghanistan (9) 78.1 Tanzania (61) 104.8 Sudan (8) 78.3 Lesotho (60) 106.4 Chad (7) 79.1 Turkey (59) 107.5 Central African Republic (6) 79.2 Guatemala (58) 109.4 Congo (Democratic Republic) (5) 79.5 Madagascar (57) VERY HIGH ALERT 79.7 Solomon Islands (56) 110.7 Syria (4) 110.8 South Sudan (3) 110.9 Somalia (2) 112.4 Yemen (1) FUND FOR PEACE SMARTER APPROACHES TO A COMPLEX WORLD WE DEVELOP TOOLS AND METRICS Fragile and Conflict Contextual Risk Tools Data for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Preventing Election Affected States Response Violence WE EMPOWER STAKEHOLDERS Responsible Business Security Assessments and Convening Mutli- Preventing Gender-Based Combatting Violent Practices Guidance Stakeholder Initiatives Violence Extremism WE HELP DIVERSE STAKEHOLDERS Contextual Risk Security Standard Security Risk Assessments Training and Publicly Available Data Assessments Compliance Capacity Building FUND FOR PEACE WASHINGTON | ABUJA | ACCRA | TUNIS www.fundforpeace.org 8 THERE IS NO COVID-19 HERE J.J. MESSNER DE LATOUR MOST WORSENED COUNTRIES 2020 +3.6 Chile (42.5) +1.4 Mali (96.0) As many countries continue to suffer thousands of deaths and millions experience social isolation and economic hardship due +3.1 Mozambique (91.7) +1.2 Brazil (73.0) to the COVID-19 crisis, the 2020 Fragile States Index (FSI) will +3.1 Libya (95.2) +1.1 Bahamas (49.9) not provide any data or analysis of how the crisis is affecting the social, economic, and political fortunes of the 178 +2.1 Bolivia (75.0) +1.0 India (75.3) countries it measures.
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