Case Study of Slovenian Railways
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M. Kontelj, I. Jakomin: Transport Modelling of Freight Flows in Accordance with Investments: Case Study of Slovenian Railways MONIKA KONTELJ, M.Sc. Traffic Planning E-mail: [email protected] Review Pod Sedovnikom 11a, SI-6210 Sežana, Slovenia Submitted: Feb. 7, 2014 IGOR JAKOMIN, Ph.D. Approved: Sep. 23, 2014 E-mail: [email protected] University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Maritime Studies and Transportation Pot pomorščakov 4, SI-6320 Portorož, Slovenia TRANSPORT MODELLING OF FREIGHT FLOWS IN ACCORDANCE WITH INVESTMENTS: CASE STUDY OF SLOVENIAN RAILWAYS ABSTRACT of other transport modes has been totally neglected. This fact has caused an extreme burdening of the Using specific scientific methods and through a model, roads with goods transport. The railway system has the paper determines how investments in the railway infra- lost its competitive advantages in terms of external structure influence the whole railway system. The research costs, as well as the quantity of transported goods, is based on experience and on the results that have been safety and protection of the environment. found out in Austria, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and Ven- ezuela. Based on scientific studies about the conditions of The purpose of this paper is to study the possibili- the Slovenian railway system, on the Methodology for deter- ties of rail transport subsystem development, based mination of the investment measures and definition of con- on official documents of the Ministry of infrastructure ditions for a justified realisation and on the Calculation of and spatial planning. The article is limited to the rail- the expected number of freight trains, the results that con- way line that connects the Port of Koper to the Slove- firm the hypothesis of mid and long-term positive effects of nian hinterland. The research subjects are the analy- investments in the railway network are given. sis and modelling of rail transport demand and the analysis of railway capacity on the chosen railway lines KEY WORDS in Slovenia. investments; freight transport; railway network; economic In the paper the following problems have been con- environment; sidered: – past railway freight flows, 1. INTRODUCTION – what future rail freight flows are likely to be, – which mid-term and long-term upgrades and mod- Slovenia has a specific geographic position in the ernisations are needed to assure the capacity of wider European area. That is why her transport system the railway network, the preservation and growth and her equilibrate development represent an impor- of the market share of the railway transport, and tant fact for further development. The railway subsys- – economic evaluation of planned investments on tem is in very bad condition, because the investments the chosen rail district (Divača – Koper). in its maintenance, upgrade and new construction Based on different foreign studies and on the re- have been very poor in the last 30 years. sult of the presented model, positive impacts on econ- The main goal of the Slovenian transport policy is omy, logistics sector and on external effects could be the development of a proper, efficient and balanced expected. However, the condition is that the planned transport system. Such system could guarantee a high investments are realised. level of sustainable mobility, an appropriate protection Several studies [1] on this topic have been car- of the environment and an efficient use of energy. In ried out in the world. The most recent ones have been the last 20 years Slovenia has invested the major part made in Austria and in five States of South America. of her economic resources in the construction of road The Austrian model [2], called EAR (economic ac- network, particularly in motorways. The development cessibility and regional model), evaluates the invest- Promet – Traffic&Transportation, Vol. 26, 2014, No. 5, 429-436 429 M. Kontelj, I. Jakomin: Transport Modelling of Freight Flows in Accordance with Investments: Case Study of Slovenian Railways ments in infrastructure. It is based on a dynamic is more suitable for application in Slovenia, because spatial-econometric model, which makes long-term of the State dimensions, European and state legisla- predictions possible. This model is based on data from tion, economics, land configuration, traffic demand the period 1995-2005 for 99 Austrian regions (or po- and other indicators that are mostly similar in the two litical districts). With it the modelling of local economic States. growth as a function of infrastructure, local economic and demographic indicators and traffic accessibility could be calculated. With the mentioned model a 30- 2. OVERVIEW OF RAILWAY TRANSPORT year forecast has been made. FLOWS IN SLOVENIA The described model has shown the following ef- fects of investments in the rail network: Looking at railway freight flows in Slovenia in the – the connection between investments in rail infra- past 20 years, a drop of 2.3% per year has been seen. structure and freight transport growth is middle- On the other hand, the analysis of the railway freight strong, transport in ton-kilometres shows a different picture. – in regions where the transport connections are The growth of this index has been more or less con- good, the GDP is higher, consequently the employ- stant in Slovenia and in the neighbouring States. The ment level and the number of economic subjects reasons could be found in the growth of the average are higher, journey of shipments between the dispatcher and the – growth of GDP in adjacent regions influences the recipient and in changed relations and directions of growth of economic subject in the considered re- goods transport. gion. The percentage of the shares of rail freight trans- The Latin American model [3] has taken into con- port in the total land transport shows a different pic- sideration five States – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile ture. In EU this share has decreased by several per- and Venezuela. It shows macroeconomic effects of in- centage points in the first ten years (1992 – 2002), vestments in public infrastructure. A dynamic stochas- and has stayed on the same level in the next ten years tic model has been developed for calculating positive (around 19%). In Slovenia, on the other hand, this effects on consumption, private investments, trade share was 18% in the year 2008. But there was a dras- balance and general welfare. The following effects of tic fall from the year 1995, when this share was 50%. investments in the rail network in South America have Table 1 shows the structure of railway freight transport been found: in the year 2012. The main part is represented by the – the growth of public investments in the infrastruc- international transport, with almost 89% of all railway ture of 2% brings a growth in GDP between 4.7% freight transport in Slovenia. The international trans- and 6.63%, port is divided mainly between port transit and inter- – economic growth is directly connected to the national goods transport in import [1]. growth of investments in public network, In the last years a change in the shares of freight – consumption, investments of private capital, work transport could be noticed. It should be pointed out and salaries grow up for a certain period, and then that, if the percentages are better, absolute values they start to decrease – in the dependency of the have dropped because of the crisis. Table 2 shows the start-up public capital. data for the period 2008 – 2012, both for tons and ton Even if the two models seem comparable, the mod- kilometres. el used in Latin America is hardly possible to be imple- The dispatchers that sent the biggest quantities of mented in Slovenia. With an accurate analysis of the goods in the year 2012 were freight station of Koper two models it has been proved that the Austrian model (27.5%) and Port of Koper (21.1%) [5]. Table 1 - Structure of rail freight transport in tons and in ton-kilometres in the year 2012 Transport freight in t (year 2012) International transport (1,000 t) Inland transport Import Export Land transit Port transit Total 140.4 (10%) 421.2(30%) 16.5, (12%) 252.7 (18%) 421.2(30%) 1,404 (90%) Transport performance in tkm (year 2012) International transport (million tkm) Inland transport Import Export Land transit Port transit Total 279.5 (10%) 3,633 (30%) 335 (12%) 503 (18%) 3,633 (30%) 2,795 (90%) Source: Analysis of possibilities and needs of development of public railway infrastructure in the Republic of Slovenia, 2011[1]; Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia [4] 430 Promet – Traffic&Transportation, Vol. 26, 2014, No. 5, 429-436 M. Kontelj, I. Jakomin: Transport Modelling of Freight Flows in Accordance with Investments: Case Study of Slovenian Railways Table 2 - Railway freight transport in Slovenia for the period 2008 – 2012 National transport International transport Total Total Loaded in Slovenia Unloaded in Slovenia Transit 1,000 t 2008 17,271 3,998 13,273 5,591 4,349 3,333 2009 13,774 3,301 10,473 4,266 3,817 2,389 2010 16,234 3,520 12,714 5,290 4,507 2,917 2011 17,024 3,320 13,704 6,328 4,619 2,756 2012 15,828 3,347 12,481 5,894 4,402 2,185 million tkm 2008 3,520 740 2,780 1,316 691 773 2009 2,817 587 2,230 996 692 541 2010 3,421 617 2,803 1,286 835 682 2011 3,752 633 3,119 1,529 930 660 2012 3,470 668 2,795 1,404 850 541 Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia [4] 3. DESIGN AND PURPOSE OF TRANSPORT 3.1 Sub-models of four-step transport model MODELLING There are four phases or sub-models of this mod- Transport models offer support for the European el: generation, distribution, selection of the transport and national projects of strategic decision and of long- means and burdening of the transport network.