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Mexico: the New Migration Narrative

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Mexico: the New Migration Narrative 01-05-2013 Francisco Alba http://www.migrationinformation.org/USfocus/display.cfm?id=947 Mexico: The New Migration Narrative Mexico's contemporary migration narrative is being rewritten as a result of significant developments within the country, as well as evolving trends among its neighbors to the north and south. New economic, demographic, and political realities have coalesced to dramatically slow the large Mexican flows that had made their way to the United States over recent decades. And Mexico now is also confronted with the task of re-integrating many of its citizens and their US-born children, and is reshaping its legislative and political reality to deal with its role as a country of transit and, presumably, increasingly of destination. For the first time ever, transit migration from Central America to the United States is a significant policy priority in Mexico today — both from a security and human-rights standpoint. Prior to 2010, mention of migration into Mexico or of transit migration through the country was relatively marginal. But the Mexican government's adoption of a new migration law in 2011 was a ground-breaking recognition not only of the scale of transit migration but also of government accountability to ensure migrants' rights, including those of transmigrants. Nevertheless, implementation of this law may prove to be a significant challenge, and managing migration that comes from the south, whether temporary or permanent, has become increasingly hazardous and a source of regional tension. Mexico's relations with the United States, where roughly one in ten of its citizens currently resides — more than half in unauthorized status — have evolved somewhat as well. Border enforcement, deportations, and migrant deaths dominated Mexico's migration agenda with the United States in the years immediately following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, putting strain on the bilateral relationship. While those irritants remain in to an extent, new political realities have emerged. Chief among them: the prospect of US immigration reform, which stalled earlier this decade, was back on the table in Congress in a serious way in spring 2013, holding the potential to bring an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants, including approximately 6.8 million from Mexico, out of the shadows and into the mainstream of US life. Mexico, whose migration history from the 1970s onward was largely one of flows to the United States, now embodies several dimensions of the migration phenomenon: emigration, still primarily to the United States; transit migration, mainly by Central Americans headed northward; and not insignificantly, temporary and permanent immigration from Central America and other countries. This updated profile examines Mexican migration to the United States and Mexicans in the United States, US immigration policy affecting Mexican immigrants, Mexico's role as a transit country, remittances, government policy toward the Mexican diaspora, migration into Mexico, and refugee and asylum policy in Mexico. Mexican Migration to the United States History of Flows: World War II to Economic Crisis of Late 2000s Although many new trends are emerging, Mexico remains tied to its northern neighbor through a decades-long history of migration that dates back to World War II, when US officials approached the Mexican government in search of temporary agricultural labor. Through the resulting Bracero program (which spanned 1942 to 1964), Mexico supplied an estimated 4.5 million workers to the United States, peaking at almost 450,000 workers per year during the late 1950s. Although the Bracero program was halted, “go north for opportunity" was an idea that remained deeply embedded in the Mexican mindset. Migration networks — relatives, friends, and employers, in particular — established in the 1940s, „50s, and early „60s laid foundations for sustaining Mexico-US migration. And until recently, US enforcement measures did little to curb the flows drawn by opportunities in the US labor market, and the widely held perception of a more promising future in “el norte.” After the Bracero program ended, US border enforcement began to increase; in small measure at first, then rising in the mid-1990s, and taking on new urgency after 9/11. Over time, Mexican migration, which used to be mostly circular and temporary, changed. Although the shift in behavior began gradually during the 1980s, the move became more permanent after stepped-up border enforcement began in the mid-1990s, initiated through well-known Border Patrol actions such as Operation Gatekeeper. Increased enforcement made it more difficult and costly (in terms of smuggler fees among other factors) for Mexicans to cross back and forth. Thus, the number of Mexicans settling permanently in the United States annually — with or without legal status — increased steadily from the 1970s onward. The Mexican population settling in the United States grew from less than 250,000 per year in the 1980s to well above the 300,000 mark in the 1990s, and approached the half-million mark in the early 2000s. The size of the Mexican immigrant population doubled from 2.2 million in 1980 to 4.5 million in 1990, and more than doubled to 9.4 million in 2000, at which point Mexican immigrants made up 29.5 percent of all immigrants in the United States. According to some calculations, the Mexican immigrant population surpassed the 12 million mark in 2007 — just before the onset of the economic recession; the Census Bureau estimated the Mexican-born population at 11.7 million in 2011, the most recent year for which figures are available. Mexicans have become an increasing share of the US immigrant population, which overall has risen sharply over the past four decades. Over the course of the 1970s, Mexican immigrants became the largest immigrant group in the United States, with about 16 percent of the total immigrant population in 1980. Today, they represent 29 percent of all immigrants to the United States — a larger share than the eight next top origin countries combined. Current Flows and Implications of Near-Zero Net Migration Since 2010, there has been a net standstill in the growth of the Mexican population in the United States, as a result of increased outflows and reduced inflows that manifested themselves after the onset of the softening of the US construction sector in 2007 and recession the following year (see Table 1 and Figure 1). Population estimates for the Mexican born in the United States in 2011 are not significantly different from the 2010 total. According to official Mexican statistics, an estimated 317,000 Mexicans crossed the country's northern border to enter the United States in 2011, down 36 percent from the estimated 492,000 individuals in 2010. Mexico's National Survey of Occupations and Employment (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo, ENOE) reports that Mexico's immigration rate, which calculates the number of people (Mexican or not) who move to Mexico from another country, most of whom are return migrants, has dropped from 3.7 per 1,000 in fall 2008, to 2.1 per 1,000 in fall 2012 (see Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States). While data from Mexico's Border Survey of Mexican Migration show decreased flows of unauthorized migrants by quarter from 2008 to 2011, a slight uptick was detected during the first two quarters of 2012. Table 1. Net Migration Rate: Mexicans Leaving and Entering Mexico, Second Quarter Each Year 2006-12 (per 1,000) Year Departing Entering Net Rate 2006 144.0 34.0 -110.0 2007 106.9 33.1 -73.7 2008 83.1 36.9 -46.3 2009 54.8 32.7 -22.1 2010 45.8 33.0 -12.7 2011 39.4 20.9 -18.6 2012 41.9 14.3 -27.6 Source: INEGI, 2012. Estimates based on Mexico's National Occupation and Employment Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo, ENOE). Figure 1. New Migration Rate: Mexicans Leaving and Entering Mexico, Second Quarter Each Year 2006-12 (per 1,000) Source: INEGI, 2012. Estimates based on Mexico's National Occupation and Employment Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo, ENOE). The near-zero net migration from Mexico to the United States that manifested itself in 2010 represents a new trend. There is no one single factor accounting for this change. One driver is the decrease in outmigration, a confluence of economic factors in the United States and Mexico — still high unemployment in the former, paired with Mexico's improving economic stability, modest growth (in per capita terms), and ongoing social improvements. Increased immigration enforcement at the US-Mexico border and within the US interior also have played a role. The US recession and labor market trends may have caused a longer-term shift in migration flows. Whether this change is cyclical or structural remains to be seen, and will be put to a test once the US economy experiences a full recovery and returns to dynamic growth. Another factor will be the growth pattern of the Mexican economy and its ability to incorporate still rising numbers of labor force entrants and the unemployed. Stepped-up immigration enforcement in the United States has also had a direct effect on Mexicans, who represent 59 percent of all unauthorized immigrants in the United States. The increased pace of deportations that began during the Bush administration and have continued under President Obama has been felt most keenly by Mexicans. In 2011, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) deported 391,953 individuals, 75 percent (nearly 294,000) of whom were Mexican. Drivers of Mexico-US Migration Migration from Mexico to the United States is primarily economically motivated. Nominal wage differentials have been hovering for years at about a 10-to-1 ratio, in favor of the United States, for manual and semi-skilled jobs.
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