Real Insights: Real Estate Overview Yamuna Expressway April-2015

Executive Summary

Yamuna Expressway has grown significantly over the last three to four years. With an aim to reduce the travel time between Delhi and Agra, India’s longest motorway, was opened in the year 2012. Covering about 2,40,000 hectares, it include six cities, namely Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Maha Maya Nagar, Mathura and Agra. While the expressways is up and running, the authority has envisaged an elaborate plan for its further development.

To smoothen the work process, Yamuna Expressway Master Plan 2031 has been divided into three phases, out of which only the first phase (40 km stretch from Greater Noida to Jewar) has been approved. As per the Master Plan, out of the total area sanctioned in Phase 1, about 22 per cent is earmarked for green cover, 20 per cent for industrial development, 19 per cent for residential development, 15 per cent for the transport links and remaining 24 per cent for commercial and institutional development.

To further enhance the infra quotient of the stretch, several projects are in the pipeline. These include metro expansion, IT hub, manufacturing units, international airport, to name a few. Understanding the growth prospects, several leading developers are already cashing on the opportunities sprouting along the expressway.

While the development, at present, may seem little slow; with new proposed infrastructure development including the metro is expected to give new impetus to the residential real estate demand.

For the following report, we have analysed the data using GIS-based tools. Using CommonFloor’s exhaustive database, we have analysed both supply and demand side of the market.

Index

Index ...... i List of Maps ...... ii List of Figures ...... ii List of Tables ...... ii Introduction ...... 1 Master Plan: A Closer Look ...... 2 SWOT Analysis of Yamuna Expressway ...... 3 Connectivity: Existing and Upcoming ...... 3 Major Pull Factors ...... 5 Water Supply ...... 5 Power Supply ...... 6 Real Estate Snapshot...... 7 Land Market Overview ...... 7 Price Trends for Plots ...... 7 Number of Units Launched for Projects with Plotted Units ...... 8 Project Size of Plotted Development ...... 9 Analysis of Other Property Types ...... 10 What are Buyers Looking At In Yamuna Expressway?...... 14 Rental Market Snapshot ...... 15 Available Typology ...... 15 Future Growth Aspects ...... 16 Recreation and Entertainment ...... 16 Manufacturing and Logistics ...... 16 Affordable Housing ...... 16 IT/ITeS ...... 16 Connectivity ...... 16 Infrastructure ...... 16 Conclusion ...... 17 References ...... 17

List of Maps

Map 1 YEIDA Master Plan 2031 with an overlay of residential projects ...... 1 Map 2 Proposed Connectivity around the Yamuna Expressway ...... 4 Map 3 Map showing the availability of water sources ...... 5 Map 4 Map showing the probable power supply sources for YEIDA region ...... 6

List of Figures

Figure 1 Price trend for the plots and layouts (2010-2014) ...... 7 Figure 2 Supply trend of plots and layouts (2010-2014) ...... 8 Figure 3 Unit Ranges for plots and layouts (2011-2014) ...... 9 Figure 4 Typology Distribution of the projects along Yamuna Expressway (2011-2014) ...... 10 Figure 5 BHK split of projects along Yamuna Expressway (2011-2014) ...... 11 Figure 6 Distribution of projects according to their average per sq.ft. price (2011-2014) ...... 13 Figure 7 Distribution of projects according to the size of the project (2011-2014) ...... 13 Figure 8 Rental Market Distribution based on property typology ...... 15 Figure 9 Rental Market distribution based on Unit configurations ...... 15

List of Tables

Table 1 Top 5 ongoing projects in residential lands and layouts (2012-2015) ...... 10 Table 2 Size and Capital Values based on unit configurations ...... 11 Table 3 Top 5 ongoing projects in Apartment launches along the expressway (2012-2015) ...... 12 Table 4 Rental Profile at Yamuna Expressway according to unit configurations ...... 16

Introduction

Opened in 2012, Yamuna Expressway has evolved as one of the most vibrant real estate destinations in the last two to three years. The entire project was ideated with the aim to reduce the travel time between Delhi and Agra, which has been successfully accomplished. However, a lot more awaits to change the fortunes of the area as the authority has envisaged an elaborate plan for its development.

The 166 km long, six-lane expressway is India’s longest motorway, connecting New Delhi with Agra and, thus, opening up an untouched area for economic development and expansion of NCR (National Capital Region).

Map 1 YEIDA Master Plan 2031 with an overlay of residential projects

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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Before going further, let’s see which cities fall under the purview of Quick Facts the Yamuna Expressway. Covering about 2,40,000 hectares, it Length: 166 km include six cities, namely Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Maha Maya Nagar, Mathura and Agra. Number of Lanes: 6 (Extendable to 8) Main Toll Plazas: 3 Ramp Plazas: 8

Master Plan: A Closer Look

To smoothen the work process, Yamuna Expressway Master Plan 2031 has been divided into three phases.

 Phase I covers the 40 km stretch from Greater Noida to the proposed airport in the town of Jewar, Gautam Buddha Nagar District, Uttar Pradesh.  Phase 2 covers a distance of 20 km starting from the proposed airport to an intermediate destination before Agra.  Phase 3, the last one, goes beyond Agra and covers a distance of 105km.

As of now, only the first phase of the Yamuna Expressway Master Plan 2021 has got the green signal. Thus, the current focus is on developing Gautam Budh Nagar.

Out of the total area sanctioned in Phase 1, about 22 per cent is earmarked for green cover, 20 per cent for industrial development, 19 per cent for residential development, 15 per cent for the transport links and remaining 24 per cent for commercial and institutional development.

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SWOT Analysis of Yamuna Expressway

Connectivity: Existing and Upcoming

Yamuna Expressway is undoubtedly one of the most hi-tech highway in the country today. It boasts of ‘Intelligent Transport System’ installed with the objective of providing safe, secure and convenient travel between Agra and Greater Noida.

It is well-connected at both ends. Starting from Noida-Greater Noida Expressway at one end, Yamuna Expressway is connected to the Agra Ring Road. Just about 10 km from its starting point from Noida-Greater Noida Expressway, Yamuna Expressway intersects with proposed Eastern Peripheral Expressway (as shown in map with purple dotted line). This will further join it with other NCR towns such as Gurgaon, Manesar, Rohtak & Sonipat in Haryana and Ghaziabad, Hapur & Meerut in Uttar Pradesh. Although, Yamuna Expressway will directly connect NCR with Agra, it will also connect few major cities, such as Kanpur, Gwalior and Lucknow, by shortening the distance and reducing the travel time.

Moreover, there are several plans in the pipeline to upgrade the connectivity of the stretch. The map below highlights the same.

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Map 2 Proposed Connectivity around the Yamuna Expressway

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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Major Pull Factors

From good connectivity to upcoming infra projects, Yamuna Expressway boasts of a plethora of factors that are driving growth. But two major factors that sets it apart from several other markets are adequate water and electricity supply.

Water Supply

Yamuna Expressway falls in the Yamuna Basin, which possesses three important rivers - Yamuna, Hindon and Kali. Among these, Yamuna and Hindon rivers have huge untapped floods and a large network of canals (as shown in the Map 3). This caters as the main water source for domestic and industrial development proposed along the expressway. Thus, even in the times to come, the stretch will never have water shortage.

Map 3 Map showing the availability of water sources

[Source: Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority]

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Power Supply

Yamuna Power Generation Company has been created to address the power supply and demand of the YEIDA region. There is a proposed 765 KVA Substation of 3000 MW capacity at Jahangirpur, YEIDA region. Add to this, there are long-term development infrastructure plans including the establishment of Independent Yamuna Power Corporation Limited, a 2,000 MW power plant.

Map 4 Map showing the probable power supply sources for YEIDA region

[Source: Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority]

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Real Estate Snapshot

Realising the immense potential that the area holds, several realty majors have already flocked to Yamuna Expressway. Jaypee, Supertech, Cosmic Group, ATS, Gaursons, Orris, Ajnara, Logix are few developers whose projects are already under-construction.

Considering the fact that Phase 1 of the master plan has got the requisite approvals, we have taken into consideration the projects towards YEIDA region. Interestingly, majority of real estate activity is also aligned towards this phase, particularly towards Gautam Buddh Nagar (GB Nagar).

QUICK FACTS

Guidance Values in Yamuna Expressway for the Financial Year 2014-15 (in sq.mt)

[Source: Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority Website] Land Market Overview

CommonFloor data suggests that from 2010, plots constitute more than 30 per cent share of launches every year till 2014. This can be attributed to the lack of social infrastructure facilities, which are requisite for day-to-day living. Also, the stretch holds immense potential for long term investment rather than short term.

Price Trends for Plots

Price Trend in Yamuna Expressway 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000

Price Price sq.ft. per 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year

Figure 1 Price trend for the plots and layouts (2010-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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 Data clearly indicates that in 2011, as construction work on Yamuna Expressway was nearing completion, prices witnessed a significant increase when compared to 2010.  With the expressway thrown open to the public and improved connectivity, property values witnessed a constant rise in 2012 and 2013. This rise can also be attributed to the attention that the stretch got due to the first F1 race to be ever hosted by India.  However, due to lack of social infrastructure, prices in 2014 stabilised.

Number of Units Launched for Projects with Plotted Units

Supply in Yamuna Expressway 6000

5000

4000

3000

No. Units of 2000

1000

0 2011 2012 2013 2014

Supply

Figure 2 Supply trend of plots and layouts (2010-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

 In 2011, about 2300 units (plots & layouts) entered the market in anticipation of the upcoming Yamuna Expressway.  The year 2012 saw maximum number of these launched due to the commencement of Yamuna Expressway. As compared to 2011, the number of units entering the market almost doubled, which continued till 2013.  Interestingly, in 2012 and 2013 most of projects were launched along the stretch after Buddh International Circuit.  In 2014, due to overall slowdown, developers mostly focused on completing their existing projects rather than launching new ones. Thus, less number of units were launched, which units mostly skewed towards Greater Noida.

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Project Size of Plotted Development

Project Segmentation in Yamuna Expressway

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% More than 1000 units 30% 500 - 1000 units

20% 300 - 500 units 100 300 units 10% Less than 100 units 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 3 Unit Ranges for plots and layouts (2011-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

 Touted as an affordable destination, Yamuna Expressway is currently dotted by projects with small number of units (plots & layouts). However, a closer look at data suggests that in 2011, due to availability of huge land parcels, about 60 per cent projects were large size having 500-1000 units. This was followed by projects with 100-300 units.  With Yamuna Expressway thrown open to public, stretch after Buddh International Circuit also came under the purview of development. Thus, with the availability of huge land parcels, in 2012, most of the projects launched had units more than 300-1000.  In 2013, new project launched were equally spread along the stretch from Greater Noida to Jewar. Thus, even the projects were launched with units in all the categories. As per data, projects with less than 300 units occupy 60 per cent of the market share.  In 2014, 55 per cent projects were launched with 100-300 units, followed by 30 per cent projects with 300-500 units.

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Table 1 Top 5 ongoing projects in residential lands and layouts (2012-2015)

Project Name Developer Name No. of Approx. Units Ticket Price

(in Rs)

PropZone Taj Green PropZone Realcon 1900 38 lakh

Residency Pvt.Ltd

Orris Greenbay Golf Village Orris Infrastructure Pvt 720 27 lakh Plots Ltd

Supertech Golf Country Plots Supertech Limited 636 29 lakh

Jaypee Yamuna Vihar Plots Jaypee Group 500 60 lakh

Yamuna City 32nd Park View Gaursons India Limited 488 26 lakh

[Source: Real [email protected]]

Analysis of Other Property Types

19%

81%

apartments layouts and plots

Figure 4 Type of projects along Yamuna Expressway (2011-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

As per the data, apartments dominate the property spectrum of Yamuna Expressway with a whopping 81 per cent. This is followed by plots with 19 per cent.

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2%

8% 18% 1bhk 2bhk

33% 3bhk 4bhk

39% 5bhk

Figure 5 BHK configuration of projects along Yamuna Expressway (2011-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

 Like conventional market trend, 2BHK units rule the roost with 39 per cent availability, closely followed by 3BHK units with 33 per cent. This can be attributed to the fact that Yamuna Expressway as of now is predominantly an investor driven market.  Interestingly, 1BHK units comprises of about 18per cent of the market share, while larger BHK configuration such as 4,5 and 6 BHK units forms a minuscule part of the market share. This enable investors to enter the market at lower ticket price.

Table 2 Size and Capital Values based on unit configurations

BHK Approx. Sizes Approx. Ticket Configuration (sq.ft.) Price (Rs in lakh)

1BHK 370-830 13-35

2BHK 700-1,640 18-75

3BHK 1,200-4,600 25-80

4BHK 1,800-5,800 28-120

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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Table 3 Top 5 ongoing projects in Apartment launches along the expressway (2012-2015)

Approx. No. Approx. Developer Project Approx. Ticket Price Project Name of BHK Sizes Name Area Units (sq.ft.) (Ha) Min Max Gaursons Gaur 16th 2BHK 1000-1115 Rs 23 lakh Rs 26 lakh India 4000 25

Park View Limited 3BHK 1475-1475 Rs 34 lakh Rs 34 lakh

1BHK 625-625 Rs 21 lakh Rs 21 lakh Supertech Supertech 3496 100 Grand Circuit Limited 2BHK 900-1155 Rs 30 lakh Rs 39 lakh 3BHK 1295-1295 Rs 44 lakh Rs 44 lakh

Nimbus The Nimbus 2BHK 1020-1175 Rs 31 lakh Rs 36 lakh Golden Palm 2800 12.5 Group Village 3BHK 1470-1470 Rs 44 lakh Rs 44 lakh

Ajnara Ajnara 2BHK 800-1250 Rs 25 lakh Rs 39 lakh 2750

Panorama India Ltd 3BHK 1300-1300 Rs 41 lakh Rs 41 lakh

1BHK 615-655 Rs 20 lakh Rs 21 lakh Solitaire Le Solitairian Realinfra 2500 22 2BHK 1000-1030 Rs 32 lakh Rs 33 lakh City Pvt Ltd 3BHK 1370-2070 Rs 44 lakh Rs 66 lakh 4BHK 4000-4000 Rs 1.3 Cr Rs 1.3 Cr

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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Market Segmentation in Yamuna Expressway 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00%

Market Market Share % 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%

Price Range in Rs per sq.ft.

Figure 6 Distribution of projects according to their average per sq.ft. price (2011-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

About 38 per cent projects in Yamuna Expressway were launched in the price brackets of Rs 3,000-3,500 per sq.ft. This was followed 18 per cent projects in the price range of Rs 2,000-3,000 per sq.ft. and 3,500- 4,000 per sq.ft. each.

Project Segmentation in Yamuna Expressway

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00% MarketShare % 5.00%

0.00%

No. of Units

Figure 7 Distribution of projects according to the size of the project (2011-2014)

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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 With availability of huge land parcels, large size projects dominate Yamuna Expressway market.  As per data, about 24 per cent projects launched had more than 1200 units and 500-800 units each. As the stretch lacks social infrastructure, developers tend to launch township projects and try to provide all the requisite amenities inside the projects itself.  Yamuna Expressway offers a good mix of projects in all sizes. While large size projects have a bigger share, smaller projects with units in the range of 100-300 constitute about 16 per cent of the market share.

Quick Facts : FAR norms in Yamuna Expressway

Plot Area Maximum Maximum Maximum (sq.mts) Ground Floor Area Height in mt Coverage Ratio (%)

2000 - 40000 35 3 No Limit*

Above 40000 40 3 No Limit*

*Buildings above 30 Mt should get an approval from the Airport Authority

[Source: Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority Website]

What are Buyers Looking At In Yamuna Expressway?

To give our readers a 360 degree view of a market, we have also analysed buyers’ preferences, i.e, the demand side of the market. Our research clearly indicates that in Yamuna Expressway, demand is in tandem with supply. Here is a snapshot.

 In line with supply, about 79 per cent prospective buyers were looking for apartments in Yamuna Expressway.  However, this was followed by independent house and plots with 9 and 5 per cent respectively.  In line with supply, with 43 per cent maximum demand was skewed towards 3BHK units, closely followed by 2BHK units with 30 per cent.  For 3BHK units, buyers were looking for units in the price range of Rs 30-38 lakh, while for 2BHK units, the preferred range was Rs 20-30 lakh.

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Rental Market Snapshot

Available Typology

For rentals, Yamuna Expressway has maximum availability of apartments, followed by independent houses and studio apartment.

2%

9% Apartment

11% Builder Floor 2% House

Studio Apartment 76% Villa

Figure 8 Market Segmentation based on available rental properties: Yamuna Expressway

[Source: Real [email protected]]

As per BHK configuration, 3BHK units are the showstopper, followed by 2 and 1BHK units. One can also find few 4BHK units for rent.

2%

9%

1 BHK 2 BHK

50% 39% 3 BHK 4 BHK

Figure 9 BHK Configuration based on available rental properties: Yamuna Expressway

[Source: Real [email protected]]

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Table 4 Rental Profile at Yamuna Expressway according to unit configurations

BHK Approx. Unit Expected Monthly Approx. Ticket Configuration Sizes (sq.ft.) Rent (Rs) Size (Rs per sq.ft.)

1 BHK 520-830 4,500-30,000 26.3

2 BHK 600-1100 5,000-32,000 11.3

3 BHK 1000-2000 8,000-30,000 9.5

4 BHK 3120-3150 55,000-55,000 17.6

[Source: Real [email protected]]

Future Growth Aspects

Connectivity Infrastructure

Noida authority has planned a Transport Hub, Development around Gautam Buddha University which will have a range of transportation modes. on the Expressway with necessary social It will include an Inter State Bus Terminus and a infrastructure is more likely to turn the area into Railway Station. Further, to solve parking issues, a nice sustainable residential zone soon. there will be a proper provision for vehicle parking. Last but not the least, an International Airport is also planned to encourage tourism. The airport will have direct access to the Taj IT/ITeS Expressway.

Proposal of an Information Technology hub with Manufacturing and Logistics an investment of about Rs 15 crore by YEIDA.

Proposed Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor is expected to go through Dadri, which is to boost Affordable Housing both the Logistics & Warehousing Hubs and Special Development Zones along the Proposed housing units under Samajwadi Awas expressway. Scheme and MIG Scheme with an expected About 12 major Japanese, Chinese and Korean investment of Rs 500 crore by YEIDA. companies have shown interest in setting up their manufacturing plants along the expressway.

Recreation and Entertainment

 Night Safari  Upcoming project of amusement park on the lines of Disney World.  Sports amenities such as multi-purpose stadium, cricket stadium, tennis court complex, among several others.  India’s first exposition mart for Cottage and Handicraft industry

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Conclusion

Yamuna Expressway’s growth can be attributed to robust inter and intra city connectivity. Moreover, the peaceful backdrop of the region, with abundant water bodies and green spaces, has also worked in its favour. This has cajoled several developers to utilise the stretch for industrial, residential, and commercial projects.

Additionally, with Centre’s ‘Make in India’ initiative doing the rounds, Yamuna Expressway could soon transform into a manufacturing hub for electronic products. As the stretch is meant to be developed as a manufacturing and logistic hub, the demand for housing will multiply in the times to come. Further, it is expected that by 2021, Yamuna Expressway will be connected by metro to the inner parts of NCR, thus making it accessible for middle-income class group.

References

YEIDA Master Plan 2031. (2015, April 14). Retrieved from Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority: http://yamunaexpresswayauthority.com

7,400 Cr infra plans for GB Nagar. (2015, March 4). Retrieved from The Times of India: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/7400cr-infra-plans-for-GB- Nagar/articleshow/46449939.cms

Yamuna Expressway. (2015, April 14). Retrieved from Yamuna Expressway: http://yamunaexpressway.in/index.html

Yamuna Expressway to turn into electronics manufacturing hub. (2015, March 2). Retrieved from INDIA TV: http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/yamuna-expressway-to-turn-into-electronics- manufacturing-hub-48121.html

Yamuna Expressway: Futuristic Realty Hub. (2015). Retrieved from NDTV Profit: http://profit.ndtv.com/delhiproperty/story/1?pfrom=home-propertydelhi_hpsmarttips

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------Authors

Yadunandan Batchu Nikunj Joshi Meha Singla Research Associate Sr. Research Associate Head Domain Research (Real Estate) [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Bangalore Bangalore Bangalore ------

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