The effect of leaded gasoline on elderly mortality: Evidence from regulatory exemptions Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik∗ June 8, 2020 Abstract Leaded gasoline is still used globally for aviation and automotive racing. Exploiting regulatory exemptions and a novel quasi-experiment, we find that leaded gasoline use in racing increases ambient lead, elevated blood lead rates, and elderly mortality. The mortality estimates indicate that each gram of lead added to gasoline exceeds $1,100 in damages. Our setting allows us to rule out potential confounders, such as correlated pollutants or socioeconomic status. We provide the first causal estimates linking adult mortality to leaded gasoline, highlight the value of banning on-road leaded gasoline, and present policy-relevant cost estimates at the lowest ambient levels to date. JEL: I00, I18, Q53 Keywords: lead, air pollution, mortality, childhood health, gasoline ∗Hollingsworth:
[email protected]. O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Indiana University, 1315 E. Tenth Street, Bloomington, IN, 47405. Rudik:
[email protected]. Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management. Cornell University, Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY, 14853. We thank Patrick Carlin, Livy Crim, Sam Kuster, and Shyam Raman for research assistance. We thank Lindsay Allen, Judd Boomhower, Karen Clay, Brian Dillon, Maoyong Fan, Teevrat Garg, Scott Grosse, Dave Keiser, Jonathan Ketcham, Cathy Kling, David Konisky, Gabe Lade, David Molitor, Julian Reif, Jessica Reyes, Nick Sanders, Edson Severnini, Kosali Simon, Gregory Steele, Coady Wing, Nikos Zirogiannis, Eric Zou, and seminar participants at the AERE Summer Conference, the Annual Health Economics Conference, the ASHEcon Annual Conference, Carnegie Mellon University, Cornell University, EPA NCEE, the Heartland Workshop, Indiana University, the Inter-American Development Bank, Miami University, the NBER EEE Spring Meetings, UC Davis, UC San Diego, the University of Connecticut, and the University of Louisville for valuable comments.