TheThe SignificanceSignificance ofof aa ChangingChanging TundraTundra RobertRobert D.D. HollisterHollister Outline Why Study the Arctic? Melting Snow & Ice Changes on Land Politics of Climate Change Why Study The Arctic?

Lat. 62.50N 24 hr Day 24 hr Night Why Study The Arctic? • Less complex

“simple food web” fewer species fewer interactions Why Study The Arctic? • Less complex • Expected to change greatly due to warming Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 2100 90N my research

60

30

0

30

60

90S 180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 oC IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Why Study The Arctic? • Less complex • Expected to change greatly due to warming • The “canary in the coal mine” I’m dying, Run for your life!!! Melting Snow & Ice

Its gettin hot!

The Arctic The singing canary Earlier Snowmelt

% change

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Changing Sea Ice Coverage in September (satellite images)

1979 2003 Summer minimum Arctic Sea Ice

8.9% loss per decade

United Nations Environment Programme (2007) Global Environment Outlook GEO-4 Report 1979 2003

Global Glacier Change

Mass Change Effect on Sea Level

Dyurgerov & Meier, 2005

Sea Level Equivalent of Ice Sheets

Glaciers/IceCaps

Greenland

East West

Antarctica

0 20406080

Meters of Sea Level Glacial Melt in Greenland Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Projected Sea Level Rise

Rahmstorf 2006 Science 315:368-370 Land lost by 1m rise in Sea Level

Source: CReSIS and NASA Impact of 1-meter sea level rise

Anthoff et al 2006 Which do you expect to melt faster?

Thick glacier Thin glacier Antarctica & Greenland

Source: J.Zwally Source: W. Krabill Antarctica & Greenland

Source: J.Zwally Source: W. Krabill

The deepest outlet glaciers exiting into the ocean are responding most. How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine How Glaciers Work

Glacier

Moraine Deep Outlet Glaciers

cold fresh

warm salty Glacier

Moraine Deep Outlet Glaciers

h res ld f Glacier co warm salty

Moraine

Rapid Melting Rapid Retreat

ars 5 ye s ear 0 y ears 6 40 y s ar ye 50 Jacobshavns Isbrae Greenland • Jacobshavns Isbrae occupies subglacial channel • Central Greenland is below sea level

Russel Huff, Univ. of Colorado Antarctica

West Ant. East Ant.

Nearly all of West Antarctica ice sheet and much of East Antarctica ice sheet rests on bed below sea level Projected Sea Level Rise

Rahmstorf 2006 Science 315:368-370 The Global Role of Snow

NASA animation showing positive feedback As the snow melts more solar radiation is absorbed and more snow melts Changes on Land Permafrost –the frozen ground Distribution of Permafrost Distribution of Permafrost Projected loss of 60-90% by 2100 Drunken Forest Damaged Buildings

Anisimov & Reneva (2006) Ambio:35:169-175 Loss of Lakes and Ponds In Alaska

Copper River Basin 1985 Copper River Basin 1995 Lake Disappearance in Russia

Smith et al. (2005) Science 308:1429 Carbon Release

Seasonal Active Layer

Carbon Store

C.E. Tweedie Carbon Release

Seasonal Active Layer Vulnerable: 350-900 Gigatonnes Current atmosphere: 750 Gigatonnes Carbon Store

C.E. Tweedie Carbon Release

Seasonal Active Layer Vulnerable: 350-900 Gigatonnes Current atmosphere: 750 Gigatonnes Carbon Store 1% loss would equal current rate of emissions

C.E. Tweedie In saturated soils CH4 is generally more important than CO2 Flux

C.E. Tweedie Methane tends to be released in pulses

Burning a methane bubble Vegetation Change

Tundra ? Climate Warming

Current biomes Future biomes Distribution of the major terrestrial biomes

Campbell Biology 4th Edition Location of principal biomes in climate space Mean Annual Temperature (C°)

Mean Annual Precipitation (cm) Temperature gradients

high rock, snow, ice

tundra coniferous forest

deciduous forest Altitude

tropical forest low equatorial Latitude polar Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology Temperature gradients

high rock, snow, ice

tundra Adiabatic lapse rate coniferous forest o 1 C ~ 100 m deciduous forest Altitude

tropical forest 1oC ~ 150 km low equatorial Latitude polar Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology Current Projected

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion

Arctic Report Card 2007 Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion

Arctic Report Card 2007 Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion

Arctic Report Card 2007 My Research • Increase in vegetation height • Loss of lichens and mosses • Increase in shrubs and grasses

Control Warmed Key forb lichen shrub

short grass moss tall grass Hollister 2003. PhD Thesis Influence of vegetation Increased absorbed radiation

Denser Plant Layer

shallower thaw deeper thaw It is estimated that shrub and tree expansion may magnify regional warming by a factor of 2-7

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Summary of Major Changes in the Arctic • Melting snow and ice • Melting permafrost • Release of carbon • Denser vegetation (toward shrubs/trees) – increased solar absorption

Its gettin hot!

The Arctic The singing canary Summary of Major Changes in the Arctic • Melting snow and ice • Melting permafrost Potentially as much as • Release of carbon Fossil Fuel Burning • Denser vegetation (toward shrubs/trees) – increased solar absorption 2-7 X regional warming

Its gettin hot!

The Arctic The singing canary Politics of Climate Change Bush

Clinton

Bush TemperatureTemperature TrendsTrends PrecipitationPrecipitation TrendsTrends Comparing 1980-1999 to Projections of 2080-2099 Annual Winter Summer

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Projected Change

Behavior change 2007.

No behavior change

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 oC

0 1.8 3.6 5.4 7.2 9 10.8 12.6 oF Change) Climate Panel on (Intergovernmental IPCC Al Gore Understanding the issue Katrina Why we should care Its gettin hot!

The Arctic The singing canary Important Point

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Stern Report 2006 Stern Report published in 2006 Commissioned by the British Government

Using the results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.

In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. Questions….

C.E. Tweedie Further Information:

The GVSU Arctic Ecology Program http://faculty.gvsu.edu/hollistr/

Arctic Report Card http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

IPCC 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Articles in the Journal Nature The new face of the Arctic Nature 8 March 2007 466:133-135 A world melting from the top down Nature 12 April 2007 466:718-721