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Russia in Global Affairs April RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 7•No. 2•APRIL – JUNE•2009 Contents Crisis as a Catalyst Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Two-Headed Russia The New Liberalism: A Scenario with Variations Dmitry Furman 8 A liberal scenario is fairly realistic, yet it is not the one that will help Russia resolve its main task of the day – the transition to democracy. Transition is a huge task for society. The president’s liberal aspirations and steps can facilitate the resolution of this task in the future, but can do nothing more than that. Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics Dmitry Badovsky 14 In the political sense, the country, led by the incumbent authorities to the vic- tory over the crisis, will be preparing for relatively quiet elections. It is impor- tant that the very issue of the main candidate to the presidential post in 2012 will be addressed outside the framework of the crisis. Dynamics of a Social Contract Alexander Auzan 24 The formula of Putin’s social contract suggesting “stability for political free- doms” that has been observed for the past five years can scarcely be renewed. A new hypothetical formula – “a just order in exchange for taxes and civil involvement” – may considerably increase the likelihood of an institutional modernization. Contents Power and Parties in Post-Soviet Russia Vladimir Shveitser 37 Reviewing possible scenarios of response by the “party of power” to sponta- neous discontent of the population during acute stages of the economic crisis, one cannot rule out a possible split of United Russia and Just Russia into smaller parties, which the authorities may have failed to foresee. The Breath of the Crisis The Global Crisis, Law and Human Rights Valery Zorkin 50 The crisis has exposed the ineffectiveness of the classic liberal doctrine of law, which provides groundwork for the idea that social rights are not the rights in the strict sense of the word, while a welfare policy can be viewed as the assis- tance the states provides to the poor at the expense of the rich, or as charity based on political expediency. A Not-So-Great Depression Vladislav Inozemtsev 58 A majority of economic institutions in the world today are in a sort of stupor after the powerful blow the crisis delivered in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. But this does not imply that the post-crisis rebound will not be as sur- prising as the crisis. Global Rearrangement The Magic Numbers of 2009 Sergei Karaganov 72 The unfinished nature of the Cold War and World War II is creating a danger- ous vacuum. If attempts to enlarge NATO persist, Russia may turn from a revi- sionist state changing the disadvantageous rules of the game imposed on it in the 1990s into a revanchist state. Russia to Reinforce the Asian Vector Alexander Lukin 85 The BRICs have all chances to become the most influential of all the interna- tional associations that include Russia, as it is a center for harmonizing the interests of major non-Western centers of the multipolar world. An evolution of the BRIC structure into an alternative to the G8 would meet Russian inter- ests. SCO-2009: Development Problems Sergei Luzyanin 100 The implementation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization project is both a serious challenge to Russia and, at the same time, a chance to use collective resources for consolidating its positions in Central Asia and strengthening the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 2 •APRIL – JUNE • 2009 Contents Peace and Cooperation in Central Eurasia: An Iranian Outlook Jahangir Karami 110 Iran’s and Russia’s independent activities on the international stage are a fac- tor that helps counterbalance U.S. unilateralism. The independent policies of Russia, Iran and other countries, particularly the new emerging economies, contribute to the diversification of the international system, promotion of national sovereignty and respect for the principles of international law, such as the non-use of force and non-interference in internal affairs. Lines of Tension Accepting the Inevitable? Mikhail Troitsky 126 As long as U.S. President Barack Obama is intent on pursuing a more prag- matic foreign policy than his predecessor, who considered supporting Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to be a matter of principle, American stakes in the future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may decrease. Words and Deeds Alexander Ignatenko 139 The thirty years that have passed since the beginning of the Soviet Union’s Afghan campaign have made Washington even more confident that it can use Islam as a factor of international politics. After the Afghan war U.S. allies that had participated in it began to create in droves Muslim extremist and terrorist groups to serve their own international purposes. Passions over Water Vassily Belozyorov 153 Russia, a country possessing so many full-flowing rivers and water reservoirs, will unavoidably get into the epicenter of the unfolding strife over freshwater resources, and this calls for a clear-cut official position that would send unequivocal signals to our foreign partners. Responses Why We Need to Start Talking Hansjörg Haber 166 An Ambitious Vision of Russia-EU Relations Dennis Kredler 170 RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 2 •APRIL – JUNE • 2009 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Helmut KOHL (Germany) Valery OKULOV Interros Holding Company (Finland) Andrei KOKOSHIN (in a personal capacity) Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir OVCHINSKY Industrial Investors Ltd. Alexei ARBATOV Vyacheslav KOPIEV Vladimir POZNER Ruben VARDANYAN Alexander AVDEYEV Mikhail KOZHOKIN Sergei PRIKHODKO Troika-Dialog Group (in a personal capacity) (in a personal capacity) Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV Lev BELOUSOV Boris KUZYK Sistema JSFC (Deputy Chairman) Vladimir RYZHKOV Sergei LAVROV Igor ZYUZIN C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) (in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK (Germany) Mechel JSC Carl BILDT (Sweden) Vladimir LUKIN (in a personal capacity) Anatoly TORKUNOV Fyodor LUKYANOV Vladimir GRIGORYEV (Editor-in-Chief) Lord William WALLACE (in a personal capacity) (Great Britain) Vladimir MAU James HOGE (U.S.A) Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Thierry de MONTBRIAL Igor IVANOV (France) Igor YURGENS Karl KAISER (Germany) Vyacheslav NIKONOV Alexander ZHUKOV Irina KHAKAMADA (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) Sergei ZVEREV PUBLISHED BY BOARD OF ADVISORS FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION Anatoly ADAMISHIN Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY Olga BUTORINA Leonid GRIGORIEV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY Yuri DUBININ Alexander LOMANOV INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN EDITION IS PUBLISHED •Newspapers: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Vremya Novostey WITH PARTICIPATION OF •News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti •Radio Station Echo of Moscow FOREIGN AFFAIRS LEGAL CONSULTANCY KLISHIN & PARTNERS Editorial Office: Attorneys at Law 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Moscow 103873, Russia Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 e-mail: [email protected] Executive Director Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition http://www.globalaffairs.ru Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov Robert Mulcahy Computer Makeup Alexandra Kobzeva Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite Registered with Proof-Reader THE MINISTRY Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Circulation Arnold Kun OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Valeria Chistyakova Andrei Yevdokimov FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO tel.: 7 (495) 937-7611 Web Editor BROADCASTING AND MEANS [email protected] OF MASS COMMUNICATION Pavel Zhitnyuk PI No. 77-12900 [email protected] 3 June 2002 Printed by Kaluzhskaya Tipografia Standartov Order No. 914 Circulation: 1,000 copies The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of the Editors. The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with the authors. © Foreign Policy Research Foundation 2009 All rights reserved. Reproduction in part or whole is allowed only with the explicit authorization of the pub- lisher. Crisis as a Catalyst Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief The global economic crisis remains Russia de facto since the early 2000s, the focus of everyone’s attention, but set up according to the formula “well- the panic of late last year has given being in exchange for civil rights.” way to a sober analysis. The world has The active participation of civil society not been turned upside down and the in efforts to overcome economic prob- problems caused by the crisis have lems is a guarantee of the country’s only become catalysts of processes that further development. Dmitry Badovsky had begun to take shape long before views the prospects for Russia’s mod- the autumn of 2008. ernization in light of a deepening The contributors to this issue are try- decline. Vladimir Shveitser analyzes ing to understand how the changes in the transformation of the party system the economic situation could affect in post-Soviet Russia and concludes Russia’s development prospects. that the present model is vulnerable, Dmitry Furman discusses the now pop- especially amid economic problems. ular subject of the prospects for the The chairman of Russia’s liberalization of Russian politics. Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, Russian history has many examples of draws the readers’ attention to legal cyclical changes from harsh to soft challenges caused by the global crisis. regimes and vice versa. But as long as He warns about a threat to the civil, and the impulse for change comes from the especially social, rights of man, whose top rather than reflecting the demands importance is usually underestimated. of society, there will be no chance for Vladislav Inozemtsev warns against over- a real democratic system in Russia. estimating the scale of the global Alexander Auzan believes that the crisis changes. In his view the leading Western has put an end to the era of a tacit economies, above all the United States, social contract that has existed in are capable of coping with the present RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL.
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