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GAO-17-303SP, NASA: Assessments of Major Projects United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Committees May 2017 NASA Assessments of Major Projects GAO-17-303SP May 2017 NASA Assessments of Major Projects Highlights of GAO-17-303SP, a report to congressional committees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found This report provides GAO’s annual The cost and schedule performance of the National Aeronautics and Space snapshot for 2017 of how well NASA is Administration’s (NASA) portfolio of major projects continued to improve, as planning and executing its major shown in the figure below, but this trend may be difficult to sustain. The current acquisition projects. In March 2016, trend is driven by two main factors: (1) most projects are being executed within GAO found that projects continued a their cost and schedule baselines; and (2) new projects, which are less likely to general positive trend of limiting cost have experienced cost and schedule growth, were added to the portfolio. and schedule growth, maturing However, two projects—a Mars seismology instrument and lander and an technologies, and stabilizing designs, upgrade to the NASA’s space communications network—experienced significant but that NASA faced several cost or schedule growth in 2016. In addition, eight projects are in the phase of challenges that could affect its ability to development when cost and schedule problems are most likely to occur, effectively manage its portfolio. including the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System, The explanatory statement of the NASA’s most expensive human spaceflight programs. House Committee on Appropriations accompanying the Omnibus NASA’s Major Project Portfolio Cost and Schedule Performance Has Continued to Improve Appropriations Act, 2009 included a provision for GAO to prepare status reports on selected large-scale NASA programs, projects, and activities. This is GAO’s ninth annual assessment. This report describes (1) the cost and schedule performance of NASA’s portfolio of major projects, (2) the maturity of technologies and stability of project designs at key milestones, and (3) NASA’s progress in implementing initiatives to manage acquisition risk and potential challenges for project management and oversight. This report also includes assessments of NASA’s 21 major projects, each with a life-cycle cost of over $250 million. To NASA has generally maintained recent improvements in the technology maturity conduct its review, GAO analyzed cost, and design stability of its projects, even as the number of new technologies in its schedule, technology maturity, design most recent projects has increased. Three of the four major projects that passed stability, and other data; reviewed preliminary design review in the past year matured all technologies to the level monthly project status reports; and recommended by GAO best practices. Several NASA projects experienced late interviewed NASA officials. design changes, but the overall level of these changes remained relatively low and other design stability measures remained unchanged. What GAO Recommends NASA continues to improve project management tools to manage acquisition In prior reports, GAO has made related risks but faces workforce and funding challenges. NASA has not implemented a recommendations that NASA generally best practice for monitoring contractor performance, as GAO recommended in agreed with, but has not yet fully November 2012, due to resource constraints. Other NASA workforce analyses addressed. GAO continues to believe have identified gaps in key areas, such as scheduling. NASA dissolved its they should be fully addressed. NASA independent assessment office in October 2015, in part to bolster its mission generally agreed with GAO’s findings. directorate and center workforces. GAO is monitoring the effect this change could have on project oversight. Finally, several major projects experienced View GAO-17-303SP. For more information, funding-related challenges, such as working to schedules that were not contact Cristina Chaplain at (202) 512-4841 or supported by NASA’s budget plans, which could affect cost and schedule [email protected]. performance. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 3 Portfolio Cost and Schedule Performance Continues to Improve 9 NASA Has Generally Maintained Improvements in Technology Maturity and Design Stability 20 NASA Has Implemented New Tools to Reduce Acquisition Risks, but Workforce and Funding Challenges Are Emerging Issues 32 Project Assessments 37 Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission 39 Commercial Crew Program 41 Europa Clipper 43 Exploration Ground Systems 45 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On 47 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 49 Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport 51 Ionospheric Connection Explorer 53 James Webb Space Telescope 55 Landsat 9 57 Mars 2020 59 NASA ISRO – Synthetic Aperture Radar 61 Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle 63 Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem 65 Radiation Budget Instrument 67 Solar Probe Plus 69 Space Launch System 71 Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment 73 Surface Water and Ocean Topography 75 Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite 77 Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope 79 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 81 Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 83 Appendix II Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s Annual Assessments 91 Appendix III Technology Readiness Levels 94 Page i GAO-17-303SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects Appendix IV Elements of a Sound Business Case 96 Appendix V Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration 98 Appendix VI GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 100 Tables Table 1: Development Cost and Schedule Performance of Selected Major NASA Projects Currently in the Implementation Phase 15 Table 2: Current Projects between Critical Design Review and Systems Integration Review 17 Table 3: Development Cost Changes from Project Confirmation to February 2017 for Select Science Mission Directorate Projects 18 Table 4: Projects Developing Critical Technologies by Confirmation Year through 2016 25 Table 5: Characteristics of NASA Major Projects That Launched within Their Cost and Schedule Baselines from 2009 through 2017 30 Table 6: Characteristics of NASA Major Projects That Have Rebaselined from 2007 through 2017 31 Table 7: Characteristics of Technology Readiness Levels 94 Figures Figure 1: NASA’s Life Cycle for Space Flight Projects 3 Figure 2: Notional Distribution of Cost Reserves for a Project Budgeted at the 70 Percent Confidence Level 5 Figure 3: Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s 2017 Assessment 8 Figure 4: Development Cost Performance and Average Launch Delay for Major NASA Projects from 2009 through 2017 10 Figure 5: Total Number and Development Cost Growth for NASA Major Projects with Established Cost Baselines from 2009 through 2017 12 Page ii GAO-17-303SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects Figure 6: Average Age of NASA Major Projects from 2009 through 2017 13 Figure 7: Number of NASA’s Major Projects Attaining Technology Maturity by Preliminary Design Review from 2010 through 2017 22 Figure 8: Average Number of Critical Technologies Reported by NASA for Major Projects in Development from 2009 through 2017 24 Figure 9: Average Percentage of Engineering Drawing Growth after Critical Design Review for NASA Major Projects from 2010 through 2017 27 Figure 10: Number of NASA Major Projects That Released over 90 Percent of Engineering Drawings at Critical Design Review from 2010 through 2017 28 Figure 11: Illustration of a Sample Project Assessment 38 Figure 12: Major NASA Projects Reviewed in GAO’s Annual Assessments 92 Abbreviations ARRM Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission ATLAS Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System CCP Commercial Crew Program CNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales DCI data collection instrument DHU data handling unit DLR German Aerospace Center EGS Exploration Ground Systems EM-1 Exploration Mission 1 EM-2 Exploration Mission 2 ESM European Service Module ESA European Space Agency EVM earned value management GFAS Ground Flight Application Software GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences GRACE-FO Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle HP3 Heat Flow and Physical Properties Probe ICESat-2 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 ICON Ionospheric Connection Explorer Page iii GAO-17-303SP Assessments of Major NASA Projects InSight Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation ISS International Space Station JCL joint cost and schedule confidence level JPSS-2 Joint Polar Satellite System 2 JWST James Webb Space Telescope KaRIn Ka-band Radar Interferometer KDP key decision point NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NISAR NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPR NASA Procedural Requirements OCI Ocean Color Instrument OLI-2 Operational Land Imager 2 Orion Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle OSIRIS-REx Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification Security-Regolith Explorer PACE Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem RBI Radiation Budget Instrument RFU radio frequency unit SCaN Space Communication and Navigation SEIS Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure SEP Solar Electric Propulsion SGSS Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment SLS Space Launch System SMAP Soil Moisture Active Passive SPP Solar Probe Plus SWOT Surface
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